Newbie 1104 -- Game over

[Nobody Special]

Votecount 1.02

gbevilchaos - 3 - noragar, Espeonage, Twistedspoon
CaptainCuddles - 2 - Lord of Graves, gbevilchaos
Espeonage - 1 - CaptainCuddles
Lord of Graves - 1 - forest_air

Not Voting: 198Frosbite, Razgriz

With 9 alive, it takes 5 to lynch.

Deadline: June 3.

V/LA: ...

[CaptainCuddles]

Revenge vote:

Unvote, Vote:gbevil

I think we can afford to be wrong once, no matter how scummie that might sound.

[gbevilchaos]

Revenge vote:

Unvote, Vote:gbevil

I think we can afford to be wrong once, no matter how scummie that might sound.

You're right, that does sound scummy. Just because you acknowledge that what you're saying sounds scummy, doesn't mean it becomes alright. My joke vote is now semi-serious.

[Twistedspoon]

VOTE: Captain

Just the reaction i was looking for

Putting someone at L-1 in the RVS reeks of opportunistic scum hoping for a quickhammer

[CaptainCuddles]

I had a dream about getting voted down by you TS. Ah well, I got nothing to hide. Remember my sacrifice! The cop should have an easier time guessing who the mafia is right? It made sense to me :/

[CaptainCuddles]

Oh crap... those roles were by chances? FFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFF--- messed up this one.

[Twistedspoon]

what are you talking about?

It's page 3. You can't just give up, especially if town

and I have no-idea what you mean when you say' those roles were by chances'

[CaptainCuddles]

2 of the following (no duplicates possible): (Cop 25%, Doctor 25%, Jailkeeper 25%, Vanilla Townie 25%)

Thought the cop was at least a guarantee. Sorry I'm retarded.

[Twistedspoon]

...

and this relates to you putting gbevil at a dangerous L-1 because?

I had a dream about getting voted down by you TS.

guilty conscience compadré?

[Twistedspoon]

@gbevil: thoughts on your L-1'ing?

and what do you think of this disturbingly fast wagon, Razgriz and Espe? Since you are the experienced ones do you think it is scum driven in any way?

[gbevilchaos]

@gbevil: thoughts on your L-1'ing?

and what do you think of this disturbingly fast wagon, Razgriz and Espe? Since you are the experienced ones do you think it is scum driven in any way?

I pretty much stated my thoughts above.

You're right, that does sound scummy. Just because you acknowledge that what you're saying sounds scummy, doesn't mean it becomes alright. My joke vote is now semi-serious.

Fixed quote tag. ~~NS

[gbevilchaos]

EBWOP: I fail at manually typing BB codes, but that is a quote from earlier.

[Lord of Graves]

Okay, someone please explain to me how lynching someone on page three was a good idea? Captain, we can afford to be wrong once, yes. That doesn't mean we should be trying to drive a wagon straight to the gallows before the game's even started.

Don't know what to make of his "come on, lynch me" response. He seems to want a lynch and want it fast.

[CaptainCuddles]

The probabilities in my head made sense until I realized a cop was not guaranteed.

[CaptainCuddles]

...

and this relates to you putting gbevil at a dangerous L-1 because?

I had a dream about getting voted down by you TS.

guilty conscience compadré?

Whoa, completely missed this post. But now I'm back to it.

My (noob) thought process:
9 players, 1 lynch a day, 1 kill a night, the game goes on around 4 days. 1 lynch on day 1 gives the cop 2/7 chance of investigating a mafia (assuming the first lynch was a VT). Note that when I was first reading this I thought a cop and a doctor was present. Night 1, another town is killed and the ratio becomes 5 town:2 mafia. As long as the town holds majority, the mafia is gone. The cop asks for doctor's protection and goes on investigating everyone and finds out who is innocent and who isn't and the mafia is stumped until they find the doctor.

That's the way the game was played on SC2 mafia but lulz me. T.T I fail. Hope it made sense 'cause it made sense in my head at the time.

[gbevilchaos]

...

and this relates to you putting gbevil at a dangerous L-1 because?

I had a dream about getting voted down by you TS.

guilty conscience compadré?

Whoa, completely missed this post. But now I'm back to it.

My (noob) thought process:
9 players, 1 lynch a day, 1 kill a night, the game goes on around 4 days. 1 lynch on day 1 gives the cop 2/7 chance of investigating a mafia (assuming the first lynch was a VT). Note that when I was first reading this I thought a cop and a doctor was present. Night 1, another town is killed and the ratio becomes 5 town:2 mafia. As long as the town holds majority, the mafia is gone. The cop asks for doctor's protection and goes on investigating everyone and finds out who is innocent and who isn't and the mafia is stumped until they find the doctor.

That's the way the game was played on SC2 mafia but lulz me. T.T I fail. Hope it made sense 'cause it made sense in my head at the time.

Here's the problem with that. If there is a night kill each night and you lynch a townie by mistake each day, then these will be your people left:

Day 1: 7 town, 2 scum
Day 2: 5 town, 2 scum
Day 3: 3 town, 2 scum

Now, there is always the possibility that doctor/cop isn't there or doctor/cop is killed during Days 1/2. You always need to aim to lynch the scum. If you lynch a random person carelessly, you could lose the game for yourself.

I find it suspicious that you would be willing to lynch a random person, but I'll accept your reasoning. You are new to the game and don't have the theory down 100% yet.

Unvote

for now.

[CaptainCuddles]

I know. The thought process fell apart when I reread the mod's original post. 25% for a cop and 25% for a doctor no dupe already makes this combo very rare. My bad guys.

[forest_air]

I know. The thought process fell apart when I reread the mod's original post. 25% for a cop and 25% for a doctor no dupe already makes this combo very rare. My bad guys.

Cop + Jailbreaker
Cop + Vanilla Townie
Cop + Doctor
Jailbreaker + Vanilla Townie
Jailbreaker + Doctor
Vanilla Townie + Doctor

Okay, I might have calculated wrong, but basically there's a 1/6 chance for any of these combos to occur, right?

But, you could also think of it this way, if you happen to be a PR:

If they're a jailbreaker: There is a 1/3 chance of having a Doctor, Cop, or a Vanilla Townie.
If they're a doctor: There is a 1/3 chance of having a Cop, a Jailbreaker, or a Vanilla Townie.
If someone is a cop: There is a 1/3 chance of the town having a Doctor, a Jailbreaker, or just having another Vanilla Townie.

So since there are 4 possibilities (3/4 of which are PR,) and 2 slots, the chances for having a doctor and cop combo aren't actually that bad if we ask the person who happens to have be Doctor or Cop. But of course they wouldn't be stupid enough to roleclaim(unless you have complete newbies as PRs.)

Seems kind of obvious, but something a PR could keep in mind I suppose.

Unvote: Lord of Graves

At this point so far, I'm suspicious of TwistedSpoon. From what I've seen, scum tend to vote in the middle to hide themselves and look like townies, and since gbevilchaos is already at L-2, adding another vote just encourages an opening for other scum to bandwagon and lynch off innocent townies.

Vote: TwistedSpoon

[gbevilchaos]

I'm not that suspicious of Twisted. He seems to be displaying appropriate logic. He only voted for me so that he could see the reactions. He found exactly what he was looking for, then took his vote off so that I wasn't lynched randomly.

You seem above the level as well. I don't think scum would post all that out to help town (although I'm a noob, what do I know).

[forest_air]

Scum are capabe of being both logical and seeming to be pro-town. But innocent Vanilla Townies, especially of the inexperienced variety, have the potential to appear completely scummy. I don't really think analyzing a person's posts or judging their reactions are a good way to determine whether or not they are scum. But I'm also not being suspicious of Twisted for those reasons, either.

In my opinion, voting habits tend to be the best indicator, but can scums also vote for other scum and then switch the votes at the last minute to confuse the townies into lynching off another townie. We should be aware of all these possibilities, especially at the beginning of the game, so don't be too trusting of any other person unless you know for sure who they are(like mafia + mafia and cop + townie they investigated, etc)

And oops, I meant to say since Twisted changed to CaptainCuddles, who already had 2 votes, and I guess I got mixed up since he changed from you to Cuddles.

Whatever, my vote still stands.

[gbevilchaos]

I can see where you're coming from, but I'm not convinced. He had a good reason to vote for CC in my opinion.

[forest_air]

I do understand his reasoning, but his vote makes Captain L-2, which is just 1 vote away from being L-1. So, if someone decides to bandwagon, Captain could be voted off because of what an IC says. Obviously TwistedSpoon has more experience than I do in this game, making his arguements more influential towards other players. He could just as easily be mafia taking advantage of his persuasiveness as he could be a helpful doctor trying to figure out whom to protect tonight. Either way, I don't want a lynch to occur just yet, as we have 3 weeks to make a decision, and not much to go by on.

I notice how you voted Espeonage who happened to change his voted after you sided him about the avatar thing, even though he didn't really have a reason, and you could have easily voted for a person such as myself during RVS instead. Then, after it was noted how CC was acting scummie because of the thing he said, more people started to vote for him. And then you stated how you had more reason to believe your "random" vote was more reasonable then, without saying much after that. I'd like to see more about what you think is suspicious of me, or other people, instead of just agreeing with what other people have to say. I'm already starting to suspect you because of that. More experienced players like to raise suspicion on newer players, who don't know how to defend themselves either, so the next person he seems to give "appropriate logic" for could be you.

And as much as I'd hate to admit it, but due to the higher townie to mafia ratio at the beginning of the game, a townie will most likely be killed on day one. So technically we are able to have one person die, since the odds aren't really on the side of the town at the beginning. CC seemed to be objective when he said that, he was just stating the truth. I don't really see anything scummy about that.

[forest_air]

Also, I'd like to note how both of the people who haven't voted yet haven't posted for over two days.

[gbevilchaos]

I voted for CC before Twisted did. I voted for him during RVS and stated it had become a serious vote after he voted for me. He placed me at L-1, which is scummy. No one should go to L-2 or L-1 during the RVS.

As for me being influenced by others arguments, that's the nature of the game. It's one big debate on who is scum. So far, the majority of arguments have been relatively good. After taking what is said into account, my opinion may (and will, some times) change. I'm new enough to the game that I often overlook one way of thinking that a more experienced player brings to the table.

You state you're suspicious of Twisted because he placed someone on L-2, but you haven't mentioned suspicions of CC who placed someone on L-1. Can you explain this? I understand that being in the middle of a bandwagon is a scum tell, but trying for a quick lynch on Day 1 or 2 can also be a scum tell.

[forest_air]

I'm aware you did vote for him before that, but I was just questioning your reason for copying someone who was voting for him during RVS instead of voting for someone else to avoid bandwagoning so early. I just find that a little odd. Espeonage and Lord of Graves were already voting for him before you decided to. You put him at L-2. And I wasn't accusing you of copying Twisted, I was just wondering if you have any other reason to vote for him than what was said by other people after you voted and decided to keep your vote as people continued to give their input.

Although I do think it's a little weird for CC to already be voting someone to L-1, I don't really suspect him. He was acting a little rash, but other than that, it's not much of a reason to lynch him. I think he's just new to this game, and wants the next day to go by. He could just be a PR waiting for the night to come so he can use his ability.

In one game I played, this happened to one person, where he said we should vote fast on day 1, and he ended up being lynched for his eagerness for the day to pass, and we lost a tracker. Just because CC is doing something hasty isn't a reason for me to vote for him because again, I don't want to lynch someone too early. Although actions like that do make him more suspicious.

And clearly I didn't explain myself well enough? I voted for Twisted because voting to put CC at L-2. I could have easily done the same for you, you want me to change my vote? Twisted voting L-2 because he is giving someone the opportunity to do the same thing he was doing by voting for CC, backfiring trying to protect you. I would recommend for CC to unvote, as he seems to be just confused and I want this day to last for longer before a final decision is made. So, if I instead voted for CC, and someone else decided to do the same, we could be lynching a newbie townie, and that is why I choose not to vote for CC or anyone with a lot of votes for the time being.

And I didn't vote for Twisted because I have the intention of him getting lynched, FYI. I mostly voted for him because I want people to remember that he has the possibilty to be scum, no matter how "reasonable" his logic appears to be. Voting isn't the only means of questioning someone's vote. He could have easily just compiled a list of suspicious things about CC and left it at that, encouraging others to ponder his reasoning.


And voting for someone after they vote for you, usually makes you look scummy, just so you know. Other people may not care your reasoning why, and may accuse you of trying to defend yourself and turn suspion on another person.