Succession Mafia II: OVER!

[Albert B. Rampage]

Not a VI, not someone who has an uber-controversial playstyle, not someone who's too high profile either. Day 1, I'd expect you guys to go for someone who's reasonably skilled but who can fly under the radar without really being noticed, one of the good but quiet players that never really get run up on day 1.

Very good. Who in this player list would correspond to that archetype, in your opinion?

[Yosarian2]

Very good. Who in this player list would correspond to that archetype, in your opinion?

Also, I have reason to believe you and Kinetic haven't recruited yet.

Really? Huh. If that's true, then we should all stop speculating until day 1 is started, or we might just make it easier for them.

[Nobody Special]

Not a VI, not someone who has an uber-controversial playstyle, not someone who's too high profile either. Day 1, I'd expect you guys to go for someone who's reasonably skilled but who can fly under the radar without really being noticed, one of the good but quiet players that never really get run up on day 1.

Very good. Who in this player list would correspond to that archetype, in your opinion?

[Tanarin]

Soooo.... How's the weather where everyone is at?

Also, How about those Bruins?

[Albert B. Rampage]

I can tell you that we both recruited and now are waiting for players to confirm. If we had not recruited, it wouldn't matter how many confirmations this game had, we would stay in pre-game until both of us had submitted our player of choice.

[Chronopie]

Care to tell us how many you recruited? and what happens if you overlap on choices? (Succession I anyone?)

[Albert B. Rampage]

In succession I, both mob bosses tried to recruit Seraphim, and only the first one to send his action succeded.

[Flameaxe]

In succession I, both mob bosses tried to recruit Seraphim, and only the first one to send his action succeded.

^This.

[Magister Ludi]

A good point was made that Day one is the

ultimate

flash-point danger zone for the two cult recruiters.

Alberts #75 seems to agree with an earlier post by Yosarian, but I get the subtle vibe he is trying to play the thought of recuriting a hard to lynch player off as something thats so obvious of course he would do it, so naturally he did the opposite. I dont think he did.

I am of the strong opinion both Albert and Kinetic got someone they personally know is solid. Very solid. No wild cards here. They needed to have played with that player and know their style. Is the player respected or not. Most day one lynches on this site seem to be on newer people or a medium player who makes a slight mistep. Older 'veterans' and frequent posters only seem to enter possibility of lynching day 2 or 3. It would make sense to start there.

Flash Thoughts:
(I've read several games before signing up, so I know how a few of the players are viewed here)

Yosarian2: Seems well liked, and well spoken. Good choice
xvart: Solid.
Chronopie: Possible?
Flameaxe: Also a very solid choice

Katsuki

: Too volatile

Kinetic

Recruiter
Seraphim: Recruited Day one last game by both team apparently. Don't know if that makes it more or less likely

Magister Ludi:

Too new

Albert B. Rampage:

Recruiter

bvoigt:

Unknown?
populartajo: Good player, but I personally wouldn't go after him.
Porochaz: Possible

Cobblerfone:

Too new
popsofctown: Unsure

Dry-fit:

Saw him lynched day one several times. No knock on him, but this would turn people off
Fritzler:?
ThAdmiral:?
RaudhrGarm:?

Zdenek

Cecily:

Too new

Bunnylover:

DrippingGoofball: Would be interesting pick for ABR since apparently he hates her, so no one would think of this possibility.
Battousai:?
Tanarin:?

Nobody Special:

Herodotus:?
springlullaby:?

Thoughts by people who have stronger interactions with players on this list would be appreciated.

[Magister Ludi]

I will grow wary of people who dismiss this speculation as 'wine in front of me'. It is essential to winning this game. We need to get in the heads of ABR and Kinetic.

What is their play style
What do they value
What do they think makes a good player
What do they think makes an attractive lynchable player
How likely are they to try a gambit
How long did they spend thinking about their choice. Are they thoughtful players?

[DrippingGoofball]

Or better yet, we can just hunt scum the way we always do, and pay no heed to the sirens.

[Nobody Special]

Sure, take the EASY way out!

[Magister Ludi]

That is a losing strategy as the 'scum' have been preselected based on some preconcieved notion ABR and Kinetic have of their play.

[DrippingGoofball]

That is a losing strategy as the 'scum' have been preselected based on some preconcieved notion ABR and Kinetic have of their play.

Yeah, but it's a giant crapshoot.

[Magister Ludi]

It is definently not a crapshoot if we try and figure out who ABR and Kinetic may of picked. If we la-di-da around and then get down to lynching a semi-soild player who made some little nuance mistake, then yes, it is a crapshoot.

Town lynches scum already particularly low on day one (=22%) and the 'scum' in this game are going to be particularly hard to lynch players. It could be as low as 10% if we played this game multiple times.

We need to figure out more than usual.

[Katsuki]

I've been really sick as of late... and my head has been killing me today.

Expect low levels of activity until I get better.

[Albert B. Rampage]

Who has played extensively with Kinetic? We need an expert.

[Magister Ludi]

ABR, you have just as much incentive to want to stop Kinetic cult as town does. Who do you think the five strongest players in this game are, and which ones would kinetic possibly pick?

[DrippingGoofball]

Who has played extensively with Kinetic? We need an expert.

Who cares what Kinetic might think? That's not how we'll find his minions.

[Flameaxe]

For once...I completely agree with DGB.

[/hellfreezingover]

[Albert B. Rampage]

Kinetic has been my rival ever since 24 mafia, a game that ended very badly for me. Yosarian and Kinetic stole the game from my perfect plan because townies were too dumb to listen. Since Pooky, the mod at the time, did not send vanilla PMs, me and 2 other players came in the game about 30 pages deep into the game when we were prodded. I said that we were confirmed town. Everyone else, particularly the scum, disagreed. Yosarian was made director of CTU. Jack Bauer died. New York was devastated. But Kinetic was the one who made many personal attacks against me. I did not forget it, Kinetic. This game is very personal. You are the one player that I wanted to beat in a fair contest out of everyone present. This is a golden opportunity for revenge. I am invested into this one.

I can tell you that Kinetic has an even bigger ego than me. He fancies himself something special. He's logical to a fault. He would bet his eggs on someone he knew, like Lugi said. He would likely try to get one of the top players early on; beating me to the punch for Yosarian or Seraphim. He may not have played with his choice of target, but he has certainly seen them play. Perhaps someone from Wheel of Time, a game he not only modded, but followed, analyzed, and seen through 100+ pages.

In any case, Kinetic and I will battle for who we think the other will recruit in subsequent days so as to ascertain a leg up on the other. Chronopie and Fritzler are pivotal players in this sense. We must balance subtlety and attrition in our strategy, for choosing too timidly will forbid us from having a presence in the influence of each day's lynch, but choosing too aggressively might cost us getting behind in numbers. There are likely unrecruitable power roles, cult doctors or limited vigilantes in this setup, so a failure doesn't necessarily mean we attempted to recruit someone already picked by the enemy. We have all these things to take into account when making our decision.

[Herodotus]

Really? Huh. If that's true, then we should all stop speculating until day 1 is started, or we might just make it easier for them.

I don't trust Albert and Kinetic saying they've already picked.

I'd assume with two lynch immune stumps they get some sort of recruit...Otherwise we would be doing absolutely nothing day one.

Well, with the "white flag" rule Flay linked to, if the stump is the only member of his group, the group loses, so I think there has to be at least one extra member of each cult during day 1.

It might work differently in this game. We might have to lynch/kill X players from a given cult to eliminate them, regardless of their total number.

[Chronopie]

Well right now we have 1? recruit per team to hunt.

People that are perceived as "Very good" thus

un

likely picks:

Yos2 -(the wifom in Succession I over that.)-
DGB
Seraphim? -(Both teams tried for him N0 in S1, go figure)-
[Kinetic and ABR would fall into this category, but for obv reason...]

The probable pick range (In no particular order):

Batt
Bunny
Flameaxe
Poro
Xvart
Tajo
Nobody Special
Fritzler

The rest fall into the Unlikely N0 picks, myself included.

--

P.Edit: Not entirely sure why I'm a pivotal player in this sense. Do you know something

I Don't

?

[ooba]

/confirm

[Albert B. Rampage]

It might work differently in this game. We might have to lynch/kill X players from a given cult to eliminate them, regardless of their total number.

You have to kill everyone. As long as we have one solitary VI in our camp, we will watch over this town and do as we please while you sleep.

Not entirely sure why I'm a pivotal player in this sense. Do you know something

I Don't

?

Top tier players with peculiar professions. We want power roles in our organization too, and if the player in question is a strategic threat, the deal is only juicier.