Open 329: Mayo Clinic D3: Town WINS!

[glowball]

Hey that tell is completely wrong Hard Boiled, I did the exact same thing as town- I didn't want to participate in a claim with no other reason besides it probably wont work. I mean at least if you going to rely on scumtells make sure you have good ones.

[izakthegoomba]

glowball, when we were scum together, I knew we were dead about five posts into D1, when everyone was voting in favour of a mass protection-claim. Everything from that point onwards was a desperate struggle to live another phase - especially after I had to bus jilynne to death.

Besides, this isn't sheeping, it's my opinion. We need every player who could possibly be useful on side for this strategy to work. The only good reason for you not to want a vig claim is that you are scum.

[glowball]

There are 4 anti-roles if I am counting correctly resulting in a possibility of 2 kills (1 from the scum faction, 1 from the SK)
2 vigs.

What do you do with 6 claims?
and 4 kills out of that same group-- you still don't know who is who and OBVIOUSLY your reads are off so I doubt that you'll be able to direct the nightkills properly

[Maruchan]

Glowball's reaction is exactly what I would expect from scum faced with this. We need everyone on board for it to work.

Glowball, if you are not with us, you are against us. We will lynch you, catch a scum, then proceed with the vig claims - only with better odds of success than before.

UNVOTE: Thomith
VOTE: Glowball

I'm for it.

Confirm Vote

[BBmolla]

There are 4 anti-roles if I am counting correctly resulting in a possibility of 2 kills (1 from the scum faction, 1 from the SK)
2 vigs.

What do you do with 6 claims?
and 4 kills out of that same group-- you still don't know who is who and OBVIOUSLY your reads are off so I doubt that you'll be able to direct the nightkills properly

If all mafia and sk claim vig, they can't kill the real vigs because then they lose, and the 6 docs are confirmed inno and doctrain each other. That means the game becomes nightless.

[izakthegoomba]

Also, glowball, we don't give a damn about your meta. Regardless of how you have acted in the past, you being against a vig claim is an incredibly anti-town move.

PEdit: whoa, you think all the scum will claim vig? Not a hope in hell. Scum and vigs shooting eachother every night is A VERY GOOD THING - we will kill scum on at least one night, probably two, and receive sufficient info to hunt the rest of them in the day, and do our protection trains every night.

[glowball]

OR they start taking out protective roles first? If scum skates under your radar they won't be targets, although 6 claims is a bit much 4/5 claims would be more reasonable. You guys are under valuing the doctors in this set up and having them not protect anyone and let the night kills go ridiculous how does that help? Not to mention, your plan takes a slight numbers change when you mislynch because someone doesn't agree with your plan. Let's see

You can lynch me and if I am a vig, then you are down one for that plan
You can lynch me and if I am a doctor, then you are down one protection where at least the doctors could all protect each other 3 for 3

[BBmolla]

OR they start taking out protective roles first? If scum skates under your radar they won't be targets, although 6 claims is a bit much 4/5 claims would be more reasonable. You guys are under valuing the doctors in this set up and having them not protect anyone and let the night kills go ridiculous how does that help? Not to mention, your plan takes a slight numbers change when you mislynch because someone doesn't agree with your plan. Let's see

You can lynch me and if I am a vig, then you are down one for that plan
You can lynch me and if I am a doctor, then you are down one protection where at least the doctors could all protect each other 3 for 3

Or we lynch you, and because you're scum, we're one step closer to achieving our victory condition.

Even if 3 mafia and sk claim vig, the docs STILL train because if someone dies on that train it means:
A. Their protector is mafia.
B. The SK and the Mafia targeted the same person.

Please note that the probability of B, if there are 6 docs and 1 maf, is 1/42(1/6 x 1/7, I think, I hated probability), and that's not even including the factor that the mafia or sk may not even attempt to kill a doctor.

[Maruchan]

OR they start taking out protective roles first? If scum skates under your radar they won't be targets, although 6 claims is a bit much 4/5 claims would be more reasonable. You guys are under valuing the doctors in this set up and having them not protect anyone and let the night kills go ridiculous how does that help? Not to mention, your plan takes a slight numbers change when you mislynch because someone doesn't agree with your plan. Let's see

You can lynch me and if I am a vig, then you are down one for that plan
You can lynch me and if I am a doctor, then you are down one protection where at least the doctors could all protect each other 3 for 3

or, we can doctrain 5 for 5.

If you are vig it makes it simpler tomorrow. WiIth only 1 vig tomorrow, we ask for VIGCLAIM, and if 2-3 vigs claim, we lynch between CCs, with better chances of hitting scum than with 2 vigs alive.

so either way, your death doesn't effect/helps us.

[glowball]

There is a mafia doctor, with you directing kills all you've caught with this plan is NK WIFOM.

[glowball]

You guys obviously cannot read people- and because of that I am done with you until someone with some sense comes into the mix

[BBmolla]

Also might I add, boom, there's one flaw in the plan in my last post. However, I personally am willing to take that risk considering how low it is. If it occurs where a doc protects his target and the target dies and we lynch him and lose, then the mafia and SK got extremely lucky and deserve to win.

P-Edit: And I already discussed the mafia NK check my first post on the matter:

P-Edit: I didn't take into account that mafia could NK, possibly leaving a vig alive. Hm. We could still lynch between the vig ccs, cause there's still mafia/sk in there.

Docs still train regardless.

I would like other people to give their thoughts too.

[ToastyToast]

Everyone began discussing who they remember seeing at work everyday.
BBmolla: So I can't remember any of you. Am I supposed to be here?

izakthegoomba: Hmm. Yeah, strangely I don't remember any people either. But I also strangely happen to know that there are two vigilantes. There's also 4 bad guys and 6 doctors. I think it came to me in a dream.

Glowball: But I don't want to know people!

BBmolla and izakthegoomba:

And so their eyes turned to that glowing ball in the room. Maruchan was eating cup of noodles.

Vote Count #3

glowball (4) - Maruchan, VitaminR, BBmolla, izakthegoomba (L-3)
Mega (0) -
pinkfloyd (0) -
PiggyGal15 (0) -
izakthegoomba (0) -
BBmolla (0) -
VitaminR (1) - Thomith
Thomith (0) -
Maruchan (1) - glowball
Quaroath (0) -
neil1113 (0) -
whispersilk (0) -
No Lynch (0) -
Not voting: Mega, pinkfloyd, PiggyGal15, Quaroath, neil1113, whispersilk

It takes 7 to lynch and 6 to no lynch!

[izakthegoomba]

Sorry, but that's a load of crap. Our vigs shoot at the scum. The scum shoots at our vigs. They end up killing off big chunks of each other - with a little bit of luck, the SK takes out a scum for us, too. Meanwhile, we set up a protection circle of those who didn't claim vig, and use info gained from that to out the last of the scum. That is the best way we can use the protective roles.

PEdit: kinda ninja'd a few times, but I'll post the above anyway. And glowball's latest post? Just giving up like that? It just screams "lynch me".

PEdit again: Toasty's flavour is awesome, I get all the bet bits

[Maruchan]

Maruchan was eating cup of noodles.

I love this guy

[glowball]

V V G G SK

D D D D D D MD

Vig1 shoots Vig2
Vig2 shoots Goon1 (who was knowingly protected by MafiaDoctor)
Goon1 pretends to shoot Goon2
Mafia kill a Doctor from the pool
Any smart SK won't shoot from the that pool because it narrows things down even further SOOOOOOOOOOOOOO
Sk shoots a doctor as well
oh yeah and the lynch which will most likely be a doctor because if you get someone up to L-1 they claim and people probably wont lynch a vig

So 1 Doctor dead by lynching
1 doctor dead by mafia
1 Doctor dead by SK
1 Vig dead by Vigging
No mafia dead

D D D

V G G SK

MD

Now from that pool of claims you still have 5 people and only 1 vig spot left, so you choose to lynch from there because the anti-town probability is higher
YAY YOU LYNCHED SCUM

So into the night

D D D

V G SK

MD

Mafia doctor protects the last goon
Mafia kill another doctor
Vig cannot succeed in killing from the pool because of the bulletproofSK and the goon being protected. So he should shoot for the mafia doctor, but he fails

2 More doctors dead

D
V G SK
MD

OH and you guys lynch SK wooohoooo

Oh but snap MD protects Goon, Goon kills last doctor- Vig kill fails

By morning
V MD G
Mafia Win

Claims do not increase chances of winning in most cases they just make the game more systematic. You still have to have accurate lynches and reads on other players which you guys aren't demonstrating so NO I cannot get behind a lynch ochestrated by people who have horrible scumdar.

[Maruchan]

V V G G SK

D D D D D D MD

Vig1 shoots Vig2
Vig2 shoots Goon1 (who was knowingly protected by MafiaDoctor)
Goon1 pretends to shoot Goon2
Mafia kill a Doctor from the pool
Any smart SK won't shoot from the that pool because it narrows things down even further SOOOOOOOOOOOOOO
Sk shoots a doctor as well
oh yeah and the lynch which will most likely be a doctor because if you get someone up to L-1 they claim and people probably wont lynch a vig

So 1 Doctor dead by lynching
1 doctor dead by mafia
1 Doctor dead by SK
1 Vig dead by Vigging
No mafia dead

D D D

V G G SK

MD

Now from that pool of claims you still have 5 people and only 1 vig spot left, so you choose to lynch from there because the anti-town probability is higher
YAY YOU LYNCHED SCUM

So into the night

D D D

V G SK

MD

Mafia doctor protects the last goon
Mafia kill another doctor
Vig cannot succeed in killing from the pool because of the bulletproofSK and the goon being protected. So he should shoot for the mafia doctor, but he fails

2 More doctors dead

D
V G SK
MD

OH and you guys lynch SK wooohoooo

Oh but snap MD protects Goon, Goon kills last doctor- Vig kill fails

By morning
V MD G
Mafia Win

Claims do not increase chances of winning in most cases they just make the game more systematic. You still have to have accurate lynches and reads on other players which you guys aren't demonstrating so NO I cannot get behind a lynch ochestrated by people who have horrible scumdar.

you honestly expect 5 vig claims?

[izakthegoomba]

Oh my god, glowball. Did you just illustrate a single path which this game could take, and expect us to take it as divine prophecy? Too much fail.

Confirm vote: glowball

[glowball]

That is just one way of many- but me doing THAT helps scum more than town, you guys should really work it out yourselves. AND DO NOT SAY ANYTHING ABOUT CHANGING THE PLAN DAY 2 if you don't succeed. Why?! Because you never laid out a concise plan- you laid out a jumbled up plan and now I've shown you how that can go wrong. Give me a concise step by step plan and I'll show you how that can go wrong as well

If scum are smart then yes... you just made me lay out a plan for them

[BBmolla]

Congrats, if the docs were VTs that is exactly how it would play out.

Two Words that you forgot to consider:
Doc train.

Even if a doctor

is

lynched it's:
D D D D D

V G G SK

MD

Vig1 is confirmed because he killed his target. We have three scum right there. GG.

I do appreciate the effort, truely I do, but I've still yet to see a reasonable cause for us not to do my plan.

[glowball]

It's all NK WIFOM with confirmation- and doctor train won't work since you don't know who the mafia doctor is. I can outline ways to get around this but it doesn't help town for me to keep giving scum ideas.

You have to remember that the Mafia Doctor will be in that doctor pool and can choose to WIFOM when you have plans and expectations like this. HELL they can choose to frame another townie by strategic killing or no killing.

[izakthegoomba]

glowball, we cannot have a concise plan because it all hinges on the vig claims, and later, the NKs. But the planning we have done is more than sufficient for now. Of course there is a way for it to go wrong, but that is meaningless. I challenge you to find a plan that could not possibly go wrong... No? Didn't think so. Pointing out individual flaws in a plan while having no good reason for it to fail is VERY anti-town. I suppose you are trying to instruct your scukbuddies, in case you don't get to talk to them again. And unless you change your mind, you won't.

[glowball]

glowball, we cannot have a concise plan because it all hinges on the vig claims, and later, the NKs. But the planning we have done is more than sufficient for now.

Of course there is a way for it to go wrong, but that is meaningless. I challenge you to find a plan that could not possibly go wrong... No? Didn't think so.

Pointing out individual flaws in a plan while having no good reason for it to fail is VERY anti-town. I suppose you are trying to instruct your scukbuddies, in case you don't get to talk to them again. And unless you change your mind, you won't.

THAT IS MY POINT EXACTLY. MOST PLANS CAN GO WRONG AND ALL THIS PLAN IS TRYING TO DO IS MAKE THINGS MORE SYSTEMATIC FOR YOU WHO ARE LAZY. IT DOES NOT INCREASE YOUR ODDS OF SUCCESS BECAUSE YOUR READS STILL HAVE TO BE ACCURATE WHICH THEY OBVIOUSLY AREN'T

In other news... found scum

[BBmolla]

In other news... found scum

You looked in the mirror I take it?

It's not foolproof no, but it DOES allow us to lessen the NKs.

What's the worst case scenario? Vigs both die? Cool, then we Doctrain it up. Game is then nightless.

Also, remember, if both vigs die and there's still a cc, THEY ARE AUTO MAF.

Any path the mafia/sk take causes a huge risk for them, ESPECIALLY cause mafia can't talk about it right now. Their best bet, imo, would be to not claim vig. Then we have two clears. But if they do claim, they have to keep one vig alive or they die. You see? Either way they get screwed.

[BBmolla]

I'm done arguing for now, you won't change your mind, and I'm pretty sure I've gotten my point across.

Hopefully your mafbros can come up with better reasons not to then you could.