Mini 1231: 8p Swift (Game Over)

[Beck]

Hmm, just re-read. I think mod did slip, he said if we NL, it's a tie

[Beck]

Yeah so, mod slipped which means maf NK'd and korts is prob scum.

[SleepyKrew]

Happily ever after takes effect after 3 consecutive phases (in this case, if you no lynch today it will be a tie).

Mod, what if the scum submit a kill but it is blocked?

[SleepyKrew]

Have a little more Beckscum why we wait.

SKrew: Beck is scum and AtE is one reason.
Beck: I'm not AtEing and AtEing isn't a scumtell. Let me pull up a thread and a quote saying AtE isn't a scumtell. Why am I defending against an argument I already deemed invalid? Because I'm AtEing and scum of course!

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

I don't think it matters if the scum no-killed or not.

Yos, time to =========[].

[Beck]

Have a little more Beckscum why we wait.

SKrew: Beck is scum and AtE is one reason.
Beck: I'm not AtEing and AtEing isn't a scumtell. Let me pull up a thread and a quote saying AtE isn't a scumtell. Why am I defending against an argument I already deemed invalid? Because I'm AtEing and scum of course!

because AtE isn't a scum tell so you are scum pushing for the win cause your NK plan obviously failed.

hammer me and town loses.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

You can totally self-hammer here if you want to, just fyi.

[Yosarian2]

Yeah so, mod slipped which means maf NK'd and korts is prob scum.

...what? Korts is mostly confirmed town by the setup, no matter if the scum tried to kill him or not.

All right, let's think about this situation logically:

Official Vote Count

Players needed to lynch: 4

No Lynch

-2- Ironhead, SleepyKrew

Beck

-2- Cogito Ergo Sum, Korts

Cogito Ergo Sum

-1- Beck

Players not voting:

Yosarian2

SK has promised to hammer if someone else votes Beck, and we're in lynch or lose. And yet, no one has taken him up on the offer. Also, I'm going to assume Korts is confirmed town here, which eliminates a bunch more possibilities. So:

If Beck is town, the scum group logically has to be CES + SleepyKrew, or else Beck would be dead by now.

If Beck is scum, he is probably scum with Ironhead; bussing is possible, I guess, but I tend to doubt it in lynch or lose. I really don't believe Beck and CES could be scum together here.

So I'm thinking that the scum group is either CES+SK or Beck+Ironhead.

(thinks) I'm trying to decide how likely a CES+Sk scum group would be. Those day 1 interactions were really odd, especally the way SK was calling CES scum but refusing to vote for him, and CES kind of jumped in to defend SK from an early page-1 vote. I don't know about SK, but I don't know if CES would be that obvious as to defend a scumbuddy from a page 1 vote?

[Ironhead]

Good heavens, why are we about to lynch Beck?! No-lynch is our leverage to force scum to play the way we want them to; why are we letting them force us to play the way they want us to?

I doubt Beck is scum -- of all players in this game, he is one of the most townish. And, as has been pointed out he was the first to push for NL today.

There are a couple of different ways of looking at it. Try re-reading today's activity with the assumption that Beck is town. SK appears to be town for noting that his top scumread is Beck, but that it isn't worth the risk to lynch him and votes NL instead. But in post #235, CES capitalizes upon SK's stated suspicion to push a Beck lynch (opportunism, the hallmark of scum!). Then in #244, Korts also jumps on the Beck case.

Note that neither of them had ever expressed suspicion of Beck before SK identified him as his top scumread after last night's NK

-- and yet both would risk the entire game on sheeping SK's read?!

The other way of looking at this is mathematically: ceterus paribus, there is a 33% chance Beck is scum. If he is scum, then his partner is almost certainly on his wagon (because even with the loss of one of their own, scum still have an advantage, which is better than a no-lynch; but if he doesn't bus his partner and his partner is lynched anyway, he becomes a suspect tomorrow and loses much of his advantage). But there is a 67% chance Beck is town, in which case both scum are definitely on his wagon already (because if me or Yos were scum we would hammer Beck and win the game).

So: the odds of Beck being scum are far, far lower than the odds of at least one of his voters being scum. Since SK has acted most townish (and least opportunistic) of the three voters, it is either CES or Korts, or both.

But until one or the other grows a nutsack and has the guts to confess so we can continue this game, we must no-lynch. SK, please change your vote to no-lynch until one of the scum confesses.

[Yosarian2]

Looking at early page one stuff, like this:

We're out of RVS Beck. If your vote on me is serious now, please state why.

I realize we are out of rvs, I was waiting for an answer from CES, while I thought the joke was funny, I don't think it answers my question.

vote: Cogito

I think Beck is scummier then CES. (Also, if we're down to a coinflip here, where it's either Beck+Iron or CES+SK, then that's high enough odds that I'm not interested in a no-lynch anymore).

Vote:Beck

The possibility of CES being scum makes me really nervous here, my gut really doesn't trust him,, but beck being scum just seems more likely to me then a CES+SK scum team.

[Yosarian2]

IronHead: Why are you still talking about a no-lynch? If you're right and Beck is town, then the scumteam has to be CES+SK, so you should be trying to convince us to lynch them and win.

[Ironhead]

Yeah so, mod slipped which means maf NK'd and korts is prob scum.

SK has promised to hammer if someone else votes Beck, and we're in lynch or lose. And yet, no one has taken him up on the offer. Also, I'm going to assume Korts is confirmed town here, which eliminates a bunch more possibilities.

1. We're in MYLO, not LYLO!
2. Your definition of "confirmed" is pretty loose -- it is contingent upon an assumption of game balance. At most, I would say Korts is prob-town (because it is based on an assumption); but as we've observed, he definitely wasn't the cause of last night's no-kill, and town BPs are rare -- especially when a vig is present. Much more likely that he is a scum-BP who knew he could claim BP since it is nominally true.

P-Edit: I hate playing with idiots. Yosarian, pull your head out of your ass before signing up for another game.

[Ironhead]

I think town was far superior to scum in this game -- but we were saddled with morons like EA and Yos. Tough to win when your own team stupidly fumbles the game away to the opposition.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

I think town was far superior to scum in this game -- but we were saddled with morons like EA and Yos. Tough to win when your own team stupidly fumbles the game away to the opposition.

Oh man, you're so town.

Beck is proven scum barring shenanigans. Yos2 is tomorrow's lynch.

[Yosarian2]

Yeah so, mod slipped which means maf NK'd and korts is prob scum.

SK has promised to hammer if someone else votes Beck, and we're in lynch or lose. And yet, no one has taken him up on the offer. Also, I'm going to assume Korts is confirmed town here, which eliminates a bunch more possibilities.

1. We're in MYLO, not LYLO!

That dosn't change my point; we're in a lynch wrong and scum wins situation. If Beck was town, then scum would have lynched him and won, unless scum was in the group of (CES, Korts, SK) (the 2 people voting for him already, and the person who promised to join). Korts must be town, for balance reasons, so if Beck is town, the scum group must be CES+SK.

The way you're arguing over irrelevant trivialities (IN ALL CAPS) while ignoring the logical points looks like you're a desperate scum, IMHO.

2. Your definition of "confirmed" is pretty loose -- it is contingent upon an assumption of game balance. At most, I would say Korts is prob-town (because it is based on an assumption); but as we've observed, he definitely wasn't the cause of last night's no-kill, and town BPs are rare -- especially when a vig is present. Much more likely that he is a scum-BP who knew he could claim BP since it is nominally true.

Do you really think a 8 player game with a 1 shot vig and no other power role could possibly be at all balanced? And the idea of adding in a scum-BP to that setup is even more absurd; are you really suggesting that the only town power is a 1 shot vig, and that half of the scum team is bulletproof?

P-Edit: I hate playing with idiots. Yosarian, pull your head out of your ass before signing up for another game.

Lol. Now he's resorting to insults. Ok, the scum team is Beck-Ironhead. Thank you for making me feel much more confident in my decision here.

[Yosarian2]

I think town was far superior to scum in this game -- but we were saddled with morons like EA and Yos. Tough to win when your own team stupidly fumbles the game away to the opposition.

Oh man, you're so town.

Beck is proven scum barring shenanigans. Yos2 is tomorrow's lynch.

Um, what?

If you're seriously going to tunnel on me tommorow no matter what, instead of lynching Ironhead, Beck's obvious scumbuddy, then that means town can't win, even if we lynch Beck and he flips scum. We can't lynch scum tommorow without all 3 townies on board.

If you're really going to be like this, then I'm out.

Unvote

Vote:No-Lynch

I'd rather draw then have a guarenteed town loss due to tunneling.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Uh, Yos, SK's already voting Beck.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Which is why Ironhead reacted so strongly and all - you hammered Beck.

[Yosarian2]

(sigh) Yes, yes he is. I didn't see that SK has already voted.

Oh well, then assuming Beck flips scum, I guess it's up to you now, CES. If you're really going to tunnel on me tommorow for no reason and be an idiot, then town loses.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

I'm just making sure Yosscum doesn't get an easy win by nightkilling me.

[Yosarian2]

I'm just making sure Yosscum doesn't get an easy win by nightkilling me.

(shrug) If I was scum, I'd kill you anyway. Of course, Ironhead is the last scum, and you just called him town, so he will probably leave you alive.

[Beck]

Seriously you fucking hammered me? WTF

[Battousai]

Official Vote Count

Players needed to lynch: 4

Beck -4- Cogito Ergo Sum, Korts, SleepyKrew, Yosarian2

No Lynch

-1- Ironhead

Cogito Ergo Sum

-1- Beck

Players not voting:

No one

Beck -mafia goon- has been lynched D3!

It is now night. Night will last for: (expired on 2011-09-13 02:56:00)

[Battousai]

You wake up to find SleepyKrew's dead body. And a suicide note, reading "I killed myself -love

mafia

SleepyKrew"

SleepyKrew -Vanilla Townie- has been killed N3!

It is now Day 4. Day will last for: (expired on 2011-09-19 11:30:00)

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Well, that simplifies matters somewhat.

Yos, do you want to make an argument for why I'm scum or are you going to go after me?