Mini 1309: Over!

[Papa Zito]

Suddenly, bursting over the loudspeaker and startling everyone awake:

"HAH! TWO FIRST POST VOTECOUNTS. EAT IT BITCHES!"


You have no idea wtf that means.

Second Votecount of Day 3

4. Elias_the_thief (0):
5. Bub Bidderskins (0):
6. Slandaar (0):
7. DarkClaymore (0):
8. mcqueen (0):
10. DeasVail (0):
12. kondi2424 (0):

Players not voting: Elias_the_thief, Bub Bidderskins, Slandaar, DarkClaymore, mcqueen, DeasVail, kondi2424

[Bub Bidderskins]

What was your result from the night before?

God Bub, will you pull yourself together and start playing this game seriously?
The town's victory pretty much relies on the fact you are a confirmed townie. So start acting like one!

Sorry, I just wanted to confirm since I can never understand what Slandaar's saying.

[Bub Bidderskins]

So that means we have:

4. Elias_the_thief (0):

5. Bub Bidderskins (0):

6. Slandaar (0):
7. DarkClaymore (0):
8. mcqueen (0):
10. DeasVail (0):

12. kondi2424 (0):

I'm confirmed town, and kondi is everything but.

If slandaar is telling the truth, then DV is also town, which means the scum are: Elias, DC, and mcqueen.

If he's lying, then he's scum, but DV could still be innocent.

[Bub Bidderskins]

Okay, there is no fucking way that there are masons, a cop, and a doc in the same setup without some insane mafia power...unless there are two scum teams

[Bub Bidderskins]

So that means we have:

4. Elias_the_thief (0):

5. Bub Bidderskins (0):

6. Slandaar (0):
7. DarkClaymore (0):
8. mcqueen (0):
10. DeasVail (0):

12. kondi2424 (0):

I'm confirmed town, and kondi is everything but.

If slandaar is telling the truth, then DV is also town, which means the scum are: Elias, DC, and mcqueen.

If he's lying, then he's scum, but DV could still be innocent.

Wait, that can't be right. Neither of those kills last night were vig kills. There's got to be at least 2 anti-town factions in the game. There are exactly four scum, which means that slandaar's claim is impossible...

Unless he got a result on a godfather. Shit. But if both McQueen and Slandaar are telling the truth then that means we have:

JOAT+Cop+Doc+Masons vs 2 anti-town factions

Which is highly unlikely. This means that either McQueen or Slandaar is lying.

[DarkClaymore]

What kind of lol reasoning is that omgus stuff DC

If you want to keep pretending you are town at least dont make such ridiculous arguments.

So you think OMGUS at lylo is townish?

@Bub

Well yeah, we kinda went over most of this I believe. So who do you suspect the most and think should be lynched? In what order do you want players to mass claim?

[Slandaar]

setup analysis needs to wait till all have claimed

I think omgus is at best a null tell at all times.

[Elias_the_thief]

Hi guys, I'm gonna go ahead and claim now since it won't change the game very much. Just a vanilla townie.

I think we either have a 3 man team with a GF to worry about, or two 2-man teams. Right now I can't speculate all too much because I'm about to head to class but I'll try to puzzle this out later tonight.

[DarkClaymore]

I think omgus is at best a null tell at all times.

OMGUS is basically voting someone mainly because he thinks you are scum and pointed out something scummy about you.
It can come in many forms, but the way DV did it there looked like "Oh right. I defended myself and DC is scum to point this thing out in the first place". Which... is far from sounding like something that will come from town at lylo, of all places, when my point was actually very legit as it DOES look like a slip.

This form of OMGUS is basically used to threaten whoever tries to scumhunt him - "You dare to scumhunt me!? YOU MUST BE SCUMZ!!!". Yeah, totally see it coming from town.


Also, if you already mentioned trying to look as town with ridiculous arguments, then how about this:

His reasoning provided for voting EPM is based on one thing (the "inb4 town flip" statement")

Anyone who payed at least minimal attention to the game should know how ridiculous this sentence is.
Give me one good reason why this would come from town.

[mcqueen]

Claims and Reads

• Elias_the_thief -
  Vanilla Townie
  (
  Town
  ) -
  Scum
  - I admit my posts have not been great, but Elias_the_thief's reasoning / attacks have been terrible and shitty. No where near town-like posting.
  
• Bub Bidderskins -
  Town Mason
  (
  Confirmed Town
  ) -
  Town
  - Obviously confirmed town.
  
• Slandaar -
  Cop
  (
  Town
  ) -
  Town
  - I've believed his cop claim, as well as protected him, and I'm pretty sure that shows I see him as town. If you can't see how it does, you may need to see a doctor. (Which, in that case, come on down, and see me, as I'm the Town Doctor. )
  
• DarkClaymore -
  Vanilla Townie
  (
  Town
  ) -
  Town
  - I don't like his reasoning, but alas, I have a town read on him.
  
• mcqueen -
  Doctor
  (
  Town
  ) -
  N/A
  - I don't express reads on myself, I'm just not that kind of person.
  
• DeasVail -
  Mafia Godfather
  (
  Mafia
  ) or
  Vigilante
  (
  Independent 3rd Party
  ) -
  Scum
  - Scum slip in Post 303 (I think that was the post number), and, as stated, he could be the Mafia Godfather, resulting in the "Innocent," received by Slandaar.
  
• kondi2424 - No Claim -
  Town
  - Since Bub Bidderskins is confirmed town, I'm going to beleive him when he says kondi2424 is pretty much confirmed town, as well.

Obviously, this is not balanced, even if Elias_the_thief is scum. So, I still need to figure some things out, but for starters -
VOTE: DeasVail

[Slandaar]

NO VOTING UNTILL EVERYONE HAS CLAIMED NEED TO ANALYSE SETUP AT LEAST BEFORE ANY VOTES NEED ALL CLAIMS TO DO THAT

KONDI IS UP NEXT TO CLAIM

[kondi2424]

mcqueen, unvote.

DeasVail, if you are the Serial Killer, you NEED to claim in your next post, for your own sake as well as the sake of the town.

I'm a VT.

[Slandaar]

DV claim

[Elias_the_thief]

Claims and Reads

Elias_the_thief -

Vanilla Townie

(

Town

) -

Scum

- I admit my posts have not been great, but Elias_the_thief's reasoning / attacks have been terrible and shitty. No where near town-like posting.

I will be absolutely shocked if you can tell me what "town-like" posting is, and how one can be "no where near" it. If you're really the doctor I'll eat my hat. I bet your partner is DC, since you pretty much arbitrarily decided he was town and I was scum, even though you say you don't like the reasoning from either of us.

I think what makes the most sense is DV-Slandaar, DC-McQueen. Bub and Kondi remain as confirmed as before. In the case that there is only one scum team, then I think we'd be dealing with 4 anti-town players, 3 scum and an SK. I wouldn't be surprised to see a Godfather in a 3 scum setup, meaning Slandaar could legit be cop, and the scum would be DV-McQueen-DC. But that leaves the problem of the secondary night kill. I have to conclude that one scum team doesn't make sense here. Therefore the only sensible pairing is as indicated above (unless you're not me, in which case I can understand substituting my name for your own).

[Bub Bidderskins]

Vote: Slandaar

I seriously doubt his claim after looking at the evidence. Like I said before, having a JOAT/Cop/Masons/Doc vs 2 Anti-town factions is impossible. Given this, either Mcqueen or Slandaar is lying. It's more likely that Slandaar is lying because:

1) He claimed first, not knowing that there was a doc in the setup. As scum, McQueen would know not to claim a power role after the fact because, as I said, the above setup is impossible.

2) His scumteam is impossible without a GF. If DV isn't a godfather, then the team that Slandaar put forward is impossible since there are only three mafia. Now, there is a chance that DV is a GF, but it's more likely that he isn't.

3) He tried to take control of the town with the claims.

4) He has been useless throughout the game.

5) In a two-anti-town-kill setup, a doc is more likely. Without a doc, the setup would actually be somewhat unbalanced since the town would be defenseless against two kills. Also, a mason group and a cop serve the same basic function of clearing townies.

[Bub Bidderskins]

So that means that Slandaar, DC, and Elias are probably all scum. The only question is that number four spot. Either Slandaar claimed an inno on his scumbud, or mcqueen is lying about his role, too.

[Bub Bidderskins]

Wait,

unvote

[Bub Bidderskins]

4. Elias_the_thief (0):
6. Slandaar (0):
7. DarkClaymore (0):
8. mcqueen (0):
10. DeasVail (0):

Four of those are guaranteed scum. Let's look at some possibilities:

Only Slandaar is lying

Then mcqueen is the doc, and the other scum are elias, DC, and DV (Slandaar "investigated" his scumbud)

Only mcqueen is lying

mcqueen is scum, Slandaar is the real cop, and the other scum are elias, DC, and DV (who is a godfather)

Both mcqueen and Slandaar are lying

Slandaar and mcqueen are scum. DV is either Slandaar's scumbud or an inno. If he's innocent, then

both

elias and DC are scum. If he's scum, then

one

of Elais and DC are scum.

Unfortunately I can't find any confirmed scum just from the setup. Shit. As it stands, I still think Slandaar is likely scum, but I'm not comfortable voting just yet for fear of LYLO.

[DeasVail]

Whoops, sorry for the delay. VT.

I'll read and post thoughts.

[DeasVail]

@Elias I wish...

@Bub I'm town. Please trust me on this. Why don't you think there are two mafia teams of two? It's a good explanation for the Town power I think.

[Slandaar]

I need to think.

[DarkClaymore]

Oh, gawd. Screw it. Call me scum for early voting if you wish but

VOTE: DeasVail

What town needs in order to win is:
1) Lynch scum today. Not SK of course though.
2) Hope that at least either Bub or Kondi survives the night.

Call me pessimist if you want, but I doubt town will win this.
My personal bet is that DV, Mcqueen and Slan are scum. Logic of setup analysis says Elias should be on that list as well, but he has been giving me some town reads around the end of D2. So not as confident.

I need to think.

Let me help you. Look at the following quote.

His reasoning provided for voting EPM is based on one thing (the "inb4 town flip" statement")

Read it

real

slow. Now ask yourself "Why would a townie say such a ridiculous thing?". If no answer pops in your mind for 5 minutes, then I hope you'll know what to do next. If

still

uncertain, ask yourself "What would DV-scum gain from saying that?". The moment you can answer that, and I predict it'll be quick, then you'll know for

sure

what need to be done.

DeasVail - 2 (mcqueen, Darkclaymore) [L-2]

[Bub Bidderskins]

@Elias I wish...

@Bub I'm town. Please trust me on this. Why don't you think there are two mafia teams of two? It's a good explanation for the Town power I think.

What makes you think I don't think there are two mafia teams of two? It's definitely a possibility.

[kondi2424]

I'm thinking. If Slaandar is town, DV *has* to be a Godfather. I just don't find that a very likely possibility (the one person he's investigated is immune from investigation). But if he IS town, mcqueen is very likely to be scum. It's more of a judgement call.

[Slandaar]

OK well im the SK

DV probably is scum here... I didnt really want to claim as it guarantees I cant win, but there isnt much chance anyways and DVscum seems likely here

VOTE: DV