Mafia 48: Himalayan Mafia - Game over!


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Mafia 48: Himalayan Mafia - Game over!

Post Post #0 (ISO) » Sun Mar 19, 2006 3:11 am

Post by Norinel »

Himalayan Mafia-
17
5 townies,
4
1 mafia, few survivors.

Status: It is Day 9, deadline 7/28.

Alive (5):

Cogito Ergo Sum (Replacing broomhead)
creampuffeater
MrBuddyLee (Replacing LoudMouthLee)
Twomz
Yosarian2

Dead (16):

tidus_of_zanarkand (Mafia) - lynched Day 1
HezLucky (Townie) - killed Night 1
DrippingGoofball (Mafia) - lynched Day 2
kirbyphreak (Replacing logicticus) (Townie) - killed Night 2
RandomActs (Townie) - lynched Day 3
Mastermind Of Sin (Townie) - killed Night 3
neongrey (Townie) - lynched Day 4
PookyTheMagicalBear (Replacing Mini Neo) (Townie) - killed Night 4
TheCesspit (Townie) - lynched Day 5
Thesp (Replacing TSAGod) (Townie) - killed Night 5
Mr. Flay (Mafia) - lynched Day 6
Fuldu (Townie) - killed Night 6
lordy (Replacing JamesSparrow (Replacing Hallisy)) (Townie) - lynched Day 7
Dead Rikimaru (Townie) - killed Night 7
Lloyd (Replacing Thoth) (Townie) - lynched Day 8
Fritzler (Townie) - killed Night 8
Last edited by Norinel on Sun Jul 23, 2006 3:01 am, edited 34 times in total.
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Post Post #1 (ISO) » Sun Mar 19, 2006 3:20 am

Post by Norinel »

Standard rules apply, with the following exceptions/extensions:

Every day will be strictly deadlined at 2 plus the number of living players days. Night (After Night 0) will be deadlined at 36 hours plus 12 for each mafia remaining. I reserve the right to move the deadline either way depending on circumstances, but don't count on a delay except in the case of limited access notified in advance.

If the Mafia misses their night choice, I'll kill a random townie.

Private messaging is the preferred method of communication with the moderator for night choices, questions, and the like. If it appears there's a problem, pm me. There may not be.

One may vote: no lynch, and a majority of such votes will end the day without lynching.

Notify me (Don't just post in the vacation thread, post here or pm me) if you're going to be unavailable for more than 72 hours. Commitment to X other people, blah blah blah. Twice a week, (Probably Tuesday/Wednesday and sometime on the weekend) I'll do an activity check. If you haven't posted since the last check, you'll get prodded; if you don't let me know you still exist by the next check, you'll get replaced.

Mafia: I find your Night discussion fascinating, and it's a good source of information for those replacing in to a late-game scum sitaution. Please CC me on PMs (The easiest way to do this in most browsers is to hit back to go back to the PM form and change the name to me) and e-mails, send me IM logs, link me to private forums, whatever.

Modkilling during the day takes the place of a lynch.

I'm not too worried about quoting PMs, because here's what every role PM in this game will look like:
The townie PM wrote:You are a
Townie
. You have nothing going for you except your vote and your brain. You win when all the mafia are dead.

No need to confirm, by reading your PM I know you're around and ready.
The mafia PM wrote:You are in the
Mafia
, intially composed of X, Y, and Z. You may communicate with them each night to determine someone to kill. (I will take the first choice sent to me by any mafia.) You must kill each night. You win when the town no longer has a majority.

No need to confirm, by reading your PM I know you're around and ready. However, note that your Night 0 choice is for a townie to
recruit
, not to kill.
The recruitee PM wrote:You have been recruited by the
Mafia
, now composed of you and X, Y, and Z. You may communicate with them in future nights to determine someone to kill. (I will take the first choice sent to me by any mafia.) You must kill each night. You win when the town no longer has a majority.
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Post Post #2 (ISO) » Tue Mar 21, 2006 5:52 am

Post by Norinel »

Just waiting on one confirm; I'll give Hallisy a day, but I've got replacements on call.

Edit: JamesSparrow replaces Hallisy.
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Post Post #3 (ISO) » Wed Mar 22, 2006 6:48 am

Post by Norinel »

Night 0:


So there are these 21 completely ordinary, bland, powerless people on this trip in the Himalayas, completely relying on their immensely useful guide and quartermaster to get them places and keep them alive. Sadly, he couldn't do so for himself...

One day, after an immense blizzard overnight, everyone wakes up to find him quite brutally murdered, with a note on his body reading "I accept your offer." The conclusion is clear: three of the explorers are members of the Asian Mafia, having recruited a fourth member to kill the quartermaster, and everyone else, one person per night while everyone else must lynch one person a day to find the mafia first. Apparently it made more sense at the time.

Preparing to decide to whom to subject this horrible fate, the town rifles through the quartermaster's stores. There's not much food left, and a very strange set of formulae about how to calculate the time left to travel. Somehow, they manage to get:
Townies left: 17
Mafia left: 4

Mafia lynches to town win: 4
Town lynches to mafia win: 7
Chance of town win assuming random lynches: 20.2%
It is Day 1, 21 alive means 11 to lynch. Deadline: 23 days (April 14), exact time to be announced closer to the event.


(I will try to have a little flavor, but I'm no Werebear.)
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Post Post #4 (ISO) » Wed Mar 22, 2006 6:51 am

Post by neongrey »

Well, then... Random vote time! Whose name do I like today...
vote: Mini Neo
, because you have 'Neo' in your name, and sometimes people abbreviate my nick as 'neo' and not 'neon'.
[b]ne*on*grey[/b] [i]n.[/i]
1. an impossible colour
2. frequently misspelled online alias; only capitalized at the beginning of a sentence with no internal capitalizations and has absolutely no As anywhere in it.
3. definitely a female
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Post Post #5 (ISO) » Wed Mar 22, 2006 7:47 am

Post by RandomActs »

Random vote: Coolbot


because I'm envious of anyone cooler than me.
"When all other possibilities have been eliminated, what ever remains, however improbable, must be the truth."- Sherlock Holmes
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Post Post #6 (ISO) » Wed Mar 22, 2006 7:59 am

Post by DrippingGoofball »

Who needs to random vote in this game?

Duh!

FOS: neongrey and RandomActs
for not paying attention, haha.

We already have something to work with... who did the Asian Mafia recruit? I'd say Fritzler because 100% for sure he'd "accept the offer" but I think HezLucky might be the evil ones best asset (not offense to all the other players that weren't chosen).

vote: HezLucky
, top target for mafia recruitment.
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Post Post #7 (ISO) » Wed Mar 22, 2006 8:43 am

Post by Fritzler »

You don't accept it, it automatically goes.

Vote: drippinggoofball
Surfs up dude.
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Post Post #8 (ISO) » Wed Mar 22, 2006 8:46 am

Post by Fritzler »

Plus, you know I love you hez, but there are at least three players up there I'd recruit before you.
Surfs up dude.
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Post Post #9 (ISO) » Wed Mar 22, 2006 8:50 am

Post by DrippingGoofball »

Fritzler wrote:Plus, you know I love you hez, but there are at least three players up there I'd recruit before you.
Including yourself, Fritz?

Warning: NOT a trick question.
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Post Post #10 (ISO) » Wed Mar 22, 2006 8:55 am

Post by Fuldu »

Oh dear, I'm agreeing with Baby Jesus in one game and with Fritzler here. What is the world coming to?

And aside from the mildly scummish tone of
DrippingGoofball wrote:FOS: neongrey and RandomActs for not paying attention, haha.
and the fact that HezLucky is barely in the top third of the players in this game in terms of experience and skill, there's the fact that if we were able to find who the mafia recruited simply by deciding which player would most advantageous for them, it would mean that the mafia probably hadn't done a very good job of choosing who to recruit.

vote: DrippingGoofball
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Post Post #11 (ISO) » Wed Mar 22, 2006 8:59 am

Post by Fritzler »

DrippingGoofball wrote:
Fritzler wrote:Plus, you know I love you hez, but there are at least three players up there I'd recruit before you.
Including yourself, Fritz?

Warning: NOT a trick question.
No. If I was mafia, looking to recruit someone, hez would be my fourth choice top.
Surfs up dude.
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Post Post #12 (ISO) » Wed Mar 22, 2006 8:59 am

Post by Fritzler »

Fuldu wrote:Oh dear, I'm agreeing with Baby Jesus in one game and with Fritzler here.
Huggle Fuldu
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Post Post #13 (ISO) » Wed Mar 22, 2006 9:02 am

Post by Fuldu »

Fritzler wrote:
Fuldu wrote:Oh dear, I'm agreeing with Baby Jesus in one game and with Fritzler here.
Huggle Fuldu
And apparently that gets me in good with Pooky by some sort of proxy-huggle. It's like the Axis of Cuddly Evil.
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Post Post #14 (ISO) » Wed Mar 22, 2006 9:07 am

Post by Fritzler »

Fuldu wrote:
Fritzler wrote:
Fuldu wrote:Oh dear, I'm agreeing with Baby Jesus in one game and with Fritzler here.
Huggle Fuldu
And apparently that gets me in good with Pooky by some sort of proxy-huggle. It's like the Axis of Cuddly Evil.
We like to see ourselves more of as the Borg collective
Surfs up dude.
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Post Post #15 (ISO) » Wed Mar 22, 2006 9:12 am

Post by TheCesspit »

Hello.

I have very little to say right now, except to observe and form opinions. But nothing worth saying. Except, I'm here.
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Post Post #16 (ISO) » Wed Mar 22, 2006 9:13 am

Post by DrippingGoofball »

I've only played with half of the players on the list, and Hezlucky appeared to be the most cunning to me. And if I've picked from the top 4, my record is not bad at all, and I pat myself on the back.

I really need a huggle. How's going to give me a huggle? It's cold here in the mountain.
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Post Post #17 (ISO) » Wed Mar 22, 2006 9:18 am

Post by Mr. Flay »

Vote: Dripping Goofball
for a weird kickoff. What makes HezLucky so special that he'd be your automatic first-draft pick for scum recruitment?

Fuldu has a point though (as usual), in that any game of "who got recruited" is going to degenerate into WIFOM faster than you can say Humperdink. Unfortunately it's the only lead we'll have, as we're bereft of special roles on this mountaintop.

So the question them becomes, "Are they the sort of mafia that would choose the best player, or the Xth best player?" And I'm not at all sure we can answer that this early in the game.
Norinel wrote:I will try to have a little flavor...
Does that make you the expired tour guide? :P
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Post Post #18 (ISO) » Wed Mar 22, 2006 9:24 am

Post by DrippingGoofball »

HezLucky made me cry while climbing the northern approach of the Best of the Internet peak. I tend to agree with those that say I fell victim to high-altitude madness.

Thank you all for your votes, really, I am honored. During my reign as Miss Himalaya, I promise to... argh, I think I need some oxygen.
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Post Post #19 (ISO) » Wed Mar 22, 2006 9:24 am

Post by Fritzler »

DrippingGoofball wrote:HezLucky made me cry while climbing the northern approach of the Best of the Internet peak. I tend to agree with those that say I fell victim to high-altitude madness.

Thank you all for your votes, really, I am honored. During my reign as Miss Himalaya, I promise to... argh, I think I need some oxygen.
Image
Surfs up dude.
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Post Post #20 (ISO) » Wed Mar 22, 2006 9:37 am

Post by Yosarian2 »

Yeah, this whole line of reasoning is going to involve a lot of WIFOM speculation, but with no other obveous point to start reasoning from, it's as good a starting point as any, and probably better then mindless random voting.

So, hrmmm...if the mafia were to recruit the best/most experenced player, it would probably be either LML or Mr. Flay, IMHO. Another possibility is that they may have wanted to recruit Fritzer, just because with his normal playstyle he can be a very effective, agressive scum without getting lynched for it; or they might have wanted to go for someone with a lower profile who can fly under the radar for a while.
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Post Post #21 (ISO) » Wed Mar 22, 2006 9:40 am

Post by Fritzler »

I would have picked flay cuz he's good, but 90% of the players here don't know him.
Surfs up dude.
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Post Post #22 (ISO) » Wed Mar 22, 2006 10:18 am

Post by broomhead »

so maybe i didn't gleam this correctly, the mafia is also a cult with a night kill? so say day one we lynch wrong, thats 16 to 4, then night comes and they kill and recruit, thats 14 to 5, then we lynch wrong again, that's 13 to 5, and then comes night, 11 to 6. and thats assuming no doc, vog, cop ect. then lets say we guess right, 11 to 5, and then night comes, 9 to 6. so pretty much they replace what they lose during the day with a cult recruit? so that means i hope we have a lot of vigs. am i wrong? or what?
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Post Post #23 (ISO) » Wed Mar 22, 2006 10:19 am

Post by Fritzler »

no they recruit once

we have all townies

I'm pretty sure (like 99%) that he's town after that crazy statement
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Post Post #24 (ISO) » Wed Mar 22, 2006 10:54 am

Post by RandomActs »

unvote


I think Fritz is the most likely recruitee. I'm guessing JamesSparrow the least likely, simply because he joined the game so soon before the opening.
"When all other possibilities have been eliminated, what ever remains, however improbable, must be the truth."- Sherlock Holmes
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