Marathon 14 (Assassin in the Palace)

[DragonsofSummer]

I see him very much as town trying to make all of the townies know who the other ones are. I am very tempted to hammer you right now. But would like to ask you for one good reason I shouldn't first.

[Kelly Chen]

VC

2 - Mojo (JDodge, OTU)

not voting: Pooky Mojo DoS Fiasco

[Mojo]

Because I'm a guard.

Vote: DOS

[Kelly Chen]

VC

2 - Mojo (JDodge, OTU)
1 - DoS (Mojo)

not voting: Pooky DoS Fiasco

[DragonsofSummer]

You have now basically accused me and Pooky of being anti town which is completely impossible. What is your reason for voting me?

[JDodge]

Unvote, Vote: DoS

I swear this bandwagoning fever is taking over. It's all I can do to avoid the plague. I don't understand why, though.

[Kelly Chen]

VC

2 - DoS (Mojo, JDodge)
1 - Mojo (OTU)

not voting: Pooky DoS Fiasco

[DragonsofSummer]

JDodge perhaps you can shed a little more light on why I'm being bandwagonned... though I'm sorry that you need to avoid the plague.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

the killers probability of winning at each stage in the game of lynching without taking information into account is:

1/5
1/4
1/3
1/2


.2->.25->.33->.5

Missing a lynch is bad because it increases the killer's probability of winning.

Lynching mojo however does NOT increase the killer's probability of winning, not only has he claimed guard, but he's also been put at lynch-1, something that the guards would almost NEVER do to the king. So the Killer does know that mojo is a guard, thus to lynch him would not increase the killer's odds of winning at this stage because he already knows he shouldn't kill mojo.

[Mojo]

Pooky made, what I believe, a bad suggestion. He didn't pursue it too much, so I'm inclined to believe that he is town that wanted to try something.

You, on the other hand, thought his suggestion is a great idea and still pursuing it. It makes me believe that you want us to breadcrumb the king's name.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

honestly guys. mojo is as good to us as dead, we can only gain by lynching him at this point.

vote mojo

[JDodge]

There's a very important reason I said what I did...

And there's a very good reason why I'm wagoning here. I believe that pressuring people is a good way to win this game.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

Jdodge, do you understand why we can't lose any ground by lynching mojo at this point in the game?

[Kelly Chen]

VC

2 - DoS (Mojo, JDodge)
2 - Mojo (OTU, Pooky)

not voting: DoS Fiasco

[Mojo]

Actually, I think DOS is the best target.

[JDodge]

Jdodge, do you understand why we can't lose any ground by lynching mojo at this point in the game?

I do now... But it's also a matter of choice. I choose to try and figure it out today as opposed to increasing the assassin's odds.

[DragonsofSummer]

Mojo in no way shape or form am I pursuing Pooky's idea. As a matter of fact I said that it wouldn't work a page ago. I just didn't feel that it was an anti-town idea as opposed to you. That is a crap arguement and you know it.

Vote Mojo

BTW I said it wouldn't work in post 28.

[OverTheUnder]

Let's just lynch DoS.

[Kelly Chen]

VC

3 - Mojo (OTU, Pooky, DoS)
2 - DoS (Mojo, JDodge)

not voting: Fiasco

[OverTheUnder]

EBWOP Let's just lynch Mojo.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

THE ASSASSIN'S ODDS HAVE ALREADY BEEN INCREASED IF HE IS ACTUALLY A GUARD. LYNCHING HIM DOES NOT INCREASE THE ASSASSIN'S ODDS

[Fiasco]

Yeah, I suppose it can't hurt.

vote: Mojo

[Fiasco]

===[]

[Mojo]

DOS, you said it was not going to work. You didn't say you don't want to go through with it anyway.

[DragonsofSummer]

Why would I point out that it wasn't going to work if I wanted to go through with it?