Micro 632 - Mislead [Game Over]

[Zyf]

I vote we just scrap the whole lynching thing, I don't think it will help us much anyways and it seems to be causing a huge problem at this point...

interesting
cfj, math?

If the player who would be lynched is scum, our chance of winning goes down from 75% to 50%.

If one of the two towniest players is scum, our chance of winning goes up from 0% to 50%.

It doesn't help in any case other than when one of the two towniest players is scum. (Note that lynching a townie (as the fourth-townies player) doesn't actually hurt in the case where the third-towniest player is scum; it's still a guaranteed win if we guess the paths on D5 correctly, and it's still a guaranteed loss if we guess the paths on D5 incorrectly.)

basically nothing matters anymore as long as you two both go with edos (+1 person) and there is >1 person on the "Unsafe" path

PEdit-That last question isn't helpful. It's just a wifom anyway, it doesn't actually give us anything

[Something_Smart]

At this point I'm thinking it makes a lot of sense to swap Zyf with Lucky and then move on to tomorrow. Nobody seems that opposed to the idea

excuse me.

I feel very good about Zyf's alignment. I don't feel nearly as good about Lucky's.

I see your concerns about Zyf, but it would be crazy for him to play the way he has been as scum.

and I got ninja'd by cfj asking where I was, lol.

[Javajoe24]

I have to point out that you are wrong that we cannot get past 50% win chance as town if Edos is scum. If we lynch Edos tomorrow and he is scum then our chances go to 75%

[Zyf]

JJ and CFJ–Who would you be most comfortable with if you were to lynch edos tomorrow?

[callforjudgement]

OK. I'm backing away from the idea myself, but it's mostly for a different reason: #980 wasn't intended as a reaction test but Lucky's reaction made me evaluate him as somewhat more scum.

Part of this is that part of the argument for Lucky as town is that he was willing to go along with a plan that would guarantee him a loss if he were scum. However, his subsequent posts have made it clear that he didn't really understand how the plan works. (I find it very unclear what the misconception is, but clearly there's some false assumption in there.) Meanwhile, after I explained the argument, Lucky tried to move into a more advantageous slot (#995 is, in context, basically Lucky asking to move into the 50% slot). On the other hand, I'm pretty sure SS understands the plan based on his comments in thread.

SS, can you elaborate on the case for Zyf as town? I've got myself caught up in a loop here where whenever I consider trusting someone, I just get all paranoid of them again.

[Zyf]

I'd like to note that Edos could have considered the psychological effect of picking the "less advantageous" path
so CFJ don't get all caught up in what a rational agent would do if expecting another rational agent

[Javajoe24]

At this point I'm thinking it makes a lot of sense to swap Zyf with Lucky and then move on to tomorrow. Nobody seems that opposed to the idea

excuse me.

I feel very good about Zyf's alignment. I don't feel nearly as good about Lucky's.

I see your concerns about Zyf, but it would be crazy for him to play the way he has been as scum.

and I got ninja'd by cfj asking where I was, lol.

Why would it be crazy? He has been getting town cred all game for this point in the game, and now is fighting against going the wrong path. He said in one brief post he will go down the path but his entire attitude since it has been suggested has been defensive and survivalistic in my opinion. He would have to play like this if he wanted any chance of winning at this point.

[Zyf]

At this point I'm thinking it makes a lot of sense to swap Zyf with Lucky and then move on to tomorrow. Nobody seems that opposed to the idea

excuse me.

I feel very good about Zyf's alignment. I don't feel nearly as good about Lucky's.

I see your concerns about Zyf, but it would be crazy for him to play the way he has been as scum.

and I got ninja'd by cfj asking where I was, lol.

Why would it be crazy? He has been getting town cred all game for this point in the game, and now is fighting against going the wrong path. He said in one brief post he will go down the path but his entire attitude since it has been suggested has been defensive and survivalistic in my opinion. He would have to play like this if he wanted any chance of winning at this point.

I've made it very clear
that i don't care which path i go down
but that if anyone eats rope tomorrow and you and CFJ are both alive
Edos needs to be that person

and afaik fuck no i haven't gotten towncred
aside from the people i suspect are scum

ooh, that's helpful //sarcasm

[Something_Smart]

Okay so first of all Zyf's ISO has 273 posts. That makes it a pain to look through, but it does mean something in itself: Zyf has been hyperposting all game. More content, more of a chance to slip up as scum.
Related to that is all the times when I feel like Zyf has posted exactly what he was thinking. Scum have a very different mindset this game and so even though some of his posts haven't exactly matched up with a town mindset, it's a lot closer to the town mindset than I would expect for someone so new to the game.
I'll just make a list of posts that fall under this category:
74
75
118
127
139
200
255
268 (I would be shaking in my boots just thinking of doing something like this as scum, so unless Zyf is the most fearless person I've ever met...)
284
377
402
466
545
564
587

I could keep going, but I think that's enough...

[callforjudgement]

(I wrote this post just after #1004, but then lost Internet connection. I'm going to post as soon as the connection is back up and look at the intervening posts afterwards.)

I have to point out that you are wrong that we cannot get past 50% win chance as town if Edos is scum. If we lynch Edos tomorrow and he is scum then our chances go to 75%

If Edos is scum and lied today, the only way we can get above 50% is to send three (or more!) players down path A. That would majorly hurt our win chances in at least two other cases, as if Edos is town or told the truth, we wouldn't have enough townies remaining to guarantee we could guess our way to endgame even

if

we knew who the scum was.

Lynching him tomorrow would necessarily happen if he lied today, but doing so wouldn't get us above 50% chance as we'd have only two tries to find one of four paths.

JJ and CFJ–Who would you be most comfortable with if you were to lynch edos tomorrow?

If we decide to take Edos and me to day 5 and I get a free choice of two other players to take along with me, I'd take Javajoe (obviously) and Something_Smart. I'm not seeing any real arguments for Lucky as town due to townishness (as opposed to town by PoE), and I'm concerned about the way you've been playing.

[Zyf]

268 (I would be shaking in my boots just thinking of doing something like this as scum, so unless Zyf is the most fearless person I've ever met...)

>.> now that I know infinity's scum it just ticks me off seeing this post
i was RIGHT
and NO ONE TRUSTED ME
and I DOUBTED MYSELF
f*** u guys and your distrusting attitude

also fwiw i hyperpost everywhere
including in my only full scum-game
i had another one, but I replaced into a slot that was thrown under the bus so needless to say, I pretty much immediately died.

[Zyf]

I'm concerned about the way you've been playing.

What, not thinking about everything carefully in relation to strategy before posting
my what a scumtell totally not an indication of laziness and a feeling that contribution is pointless by now //sarcasm

[callforjudgement]

Laziness is normally a scumtell (because town are curious as to who the scum are, scum already know). Feelings of helplessness are a scumtell in a townsided setup like this one is. So those aren't really great explanations for your play.

[Zyf]

Laziness is normally a scumtell (because town are curious as to who the scum are, scum already know). Feelings of helplessness are a scumtell in a townsided setup like this one is. So those aren't really great explanations for your play.

look.
if I'm scum, it literally makes no difference who i switch with
If I'm town, which will happen D5 morning if I go down wrong path
I still want you guys to kill the fuckkkkk out of edos.

[callforjudgement]

Do you think Edos told the truth despite being scum today? If so, why?

(It seems like you're assuming that we're going to have a four-player D5 and I don't get what basis you have for making that assumption.)

[Zyf]

Do you think Edos told the truth despite being scum today? If so, why?

(It seems like you're assuming that we're going to have a four-player D5 and I don't get what basis you have for making that assumption.)

Yes i do
For the precise reason that given our plans of splitting that were shared at that time, it seemed like the best choice
At least it would be for me if i were reading it in scum's position
It's perfectly possible that they didn't consider the 50% if we sr'd them
Also, at that point it seemed i was going to be autolynched the following day so if they told he truth at least they'd be less suspect

[callforjudgement]

The thing is, I'm seeing things differently.

If a hypothetical scum Edos tells the truth, then with the current plan, he has a 50% chance to win in the best case (if he convinces town to lynch the wrong person), and only a 25% chance if he gets lynched.
If a hypothetical scum Edos lies, then only two townies survive, guaranteeing a 50% chance to win in any plausible case. So as scum, that's the option I'd have gone for.

However, it seems that most people are failing to follow the reasoning, which implies I might have been wrong here; if Zyf and Java got the reasoning here wrong, then quite possibly Edos did too (and after all, I did lay out maths showing a 50% in both cases). This means that it may well be worth lynching Edos tomorrow, despite what the maths would indicate.

If we do lynch Edos tomorrow, though, I'd want the "fourth player" to be someone who didn't want Edos lynched / thinks Edos is town. This is because pushing Edos as scum is the only path to victory for a non-Edos member of the scumteam that's both obvious and viable. Let me go reread, I need to think about this a bit more.

[Something_Smart]

I feel like psychologically scum would want to tell the truth because it's very foreign to imagine a scenario where one wins after being lynched as the last scum.

On the other hand, Edos does seem to be pretty aware of theory, so he would probably look past that.

[callforjudgement]

Edos=scum:
If edos tells truth and I get lynched he wins 100% of the time.
If edos tells truth and I go down the lucky/S_S path, he also wins 100% of the time
If edos lies and I go down the unsafe path with jj/cfj, he also wins 100% of the time

therefore, we're fucked

if edos is scum, jj/cfj/me have the power to determine who wins the game
I'd like to take a gamble and say edos is town so I'm liking our current plan

How could you forget that? It has pretty much been our plan for a long while now...

Because if edos is town we're just splitting and we're confirmed a victory?
While all going the same way is a HUGE gamble.

K. So I'm back now. Gonna read now, but since it's getting tossed around (since the "first unread post"), I do believe Zyf is scum. I've thought this since Infinity and podo disagreed D2.

this man needs to be lynched
i don't care if I'm not a part of it, because you can see my flip and intentions tomorrow.

This looks faked
SERIOUSLY faked.

Wasn't what I was looking for, but I was triple-ISOing SS/Zyf/Lucky and came across this read progression by Zyf, and it's bad enough that I just had to post it. (Now going back to what I was planning to do.)

[Zyf]

The thing is, I'm seeing things differently.

If a hypothetical scum Edos tells the truth, then with the current plan, he has a 50% chance to win in the best case (if he convinces town to lynch the wrong person), and only a 25% chance if he gets lynched.
If a hypothetical scum Edos lies, then only two townies survive, guaranteeing a 50% chance to win in any plausible case. So as scum, that's the option I'd have gone for.

However, it seems that most people are failing to follow the reasoning, which implies I might have been wrong here; if Zyf and Java got the reasoning here wrong, then quite possibly Edos did too (and after all, I did lay out maths showing a 50% in both cases). This means that it may well be worth lynching Edos tomorrow, despite what the maths would indicate.

If we do lynch Edos tomorrow, though, I'd want the "fourth player" to be someone who didn't want Edos lynched / thinks Edos is town. This is because pushing Edos as scum is the only path to victory for a non-Edos member of the scumteam that's both obvious and viable. Let me go reread, I need to think about this a bit more.

Jesus
I already said to start using the probability as less than an end-all.
I also already offered to go down other path to prove my alignment
Multiple times.

[Zyf]

Edos=scum:
If edos tells truth and I get lynched he wins 100% of the time.
If edos tells truth and I go down the lucky/S_S path, he also wins 100% of the time
If edos lies and I go down the unsafe path with jj/cfj, he also wins 100% of the time

therefore, we're fucked

if edos is scum, jj/cfj/me have the power to determine who wins the game
I'd like to take a gamble and say edos is town so I'm liking our current plan

How could you forget that? It has pretty much been our plan for a long while now...

Because if edos is town we're just splitting and we're confirmed a victory?
While all going the same way is a HUGE gamble.

K. So I'm back now. Gonna read now, but since it's getting tossed around (since the "first unread post"), I do believe Zyf is scum. I've thought this since Infinity and podo disagreed D2.

this man needs to be lynched
i don't care if I'm not a part of it, because you can see my flip and intentions tomorrow.

This looks faked
SERIOUSLY faked.

Wasn't what I was looking for, but I was triple-ISOing SS/Zyf/Lucky and came across this read progression by Zyf, and it's bad enough that I just had to post it. (Now going back to what I was planning to do.)

>offers to go down other!path
>again

[callforjudgement]

Don't do this. I'm pretty confident that the scum is in <Edos, Lucky>, so I think we should leave the plan the way it is.

I've already explained that S_S has pinged me more.
Lucky has done odd things, yes. But IDK S_S pings me more.

I don't think zyf is scum. I think he is just loud noise making town.

Btw, the fact that SS also encouraged not switching, but said it before me rings pretty town. He could have used this zyf doubt to manipulate a way out for himself. If your going to switch zyf, switch him with SS.

In other words:

SS thinks that Lucky is scum and Zyf is town.
Zyf thinks that SS is scum and Lucky is town.
Lucky thinks that SS and Zyf are both town.

It's not quite a symmetrical loop of reads, but the fact that the three players being considered for path A today have cyclic townreads on each other is going to make a plan that everyone agrees with hard to make. (FWIW, if I saw those reads in the abstract in a more normal game and had to draw a conclusion entirely from them without looking at the thread, I'd say that the most scummy player there was SS but scum was probably outside.)

[Zyf]

Edos=scum:
If edos tells truth and I get lynched he wins 100% of the time.
If edos tells truth and I go down the lucky/S_S path, he also wins 100% of the time
If edos lies and I go down the unsafe path with jj/cfj, he also wins 100% of the time

therefore, we're fucked

if edos is scum, jj/cfj/me have the power to determine who wins the game
I'd like to take a gamble and say edos is town so I'm liking our current plan

How could you forget that? It has pretty much been our plan for a long while now...

Because if edos is town we're just splitting and we're confirmed a victory?
While all going the same way is a HUGE gamble.

K. So I'm back now. Gonna read now, but since it's getting tossed around (since the "first unread post"), I do believe Zyf is scum. I've thought this since Infinity and podo disagreed D2.

this man needs to be lynched
i don't care if I'm not a part of it, because you can see my flip and intentions tomorrow.

This looks faked
SERIOUSLY faked.

Wasn't what I was looking for, but I was triple-ISOing SS/Zyf/Lucky and came across this read progression by Zyf, and it's bad enough that I just had to post it. (Now going back to what I was planning to do.)

To me, as the recipient, the "ok I'm back post" feels like an opportunistic/quasi-desperate push to throw shade at me in an attempt to get me switched with a scummier player
Which would only occur if they planned on telling us the safe-route
So that's part of the reason i don't think they lied

[Edosurist]

@Edos:

If you were scum, would you have lied today?

Scum Edos would lie simply for the better win probability. I'm not a fan of self-meta, but I'm always playing by the odds. In any case where WIFOM should nerf other factors, I'm gonna follow the numbers. That's why I wanted JJ to FS alone yesterday.

[Edosurist]

Also mod didn't give us a timer, but I believe we're over 50% of the way through our day now.