Open 57 - Quack Mafia (Game Over) before 545


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Post Post #25 (ISO) » Thu Dec 20, 2007 5:22 pm

Post by Disciple Slayer »

UNVOTE


VOTE: NO LYNCH


Makes sense, MoS.
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Post Post #26 (ISO) » Thu Dec 20, 2007 5:22 pm

Post by Oman »

Crubmod:
Will Quacks only kill Town players?

Correct - Crub
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Post Post #27 (ISO) » Thu Dec 20, 2007 6:12 pm

Post by Tarhalindur »

Mastermind of Sin wrote:
Vote: Tarhalindur


I think we should no lynch today and circle "protect" to figure out who the quack doctors are. The mafia will have a few obstacles:

1) They can't kill anyone being protected by a real doctor.
2) If we only have 3 kills, all three of those people are confirmed protown, and it's possible that a mafia will be killed in the process
3) As a result of 2, the mafia will have to kill someone they are protecting to make it seem like there are 4 quack doctors. Then, we have the mafia split into two categories: 4 quack doctors (1 of which is mafia) and 8 sane doctors (2 of which are mafia). That's 1/4 and 2/8(1/4) chances of finding them, which of course is still the same as we already have, with a few exceptions. We can now guarantee the separations and hold the mafia to specific claims after day 1. Plus, with 3 of the 4 kills being randomly assigned, we've got a 3/11+3/10+3/9 chance of hitting at least 1 mafia during night 1, which is a 90% chance of eliminating scum on the first night. That's pretty good odds.

Unvote, Vote: No Lynch
This sounds right to me, but the correct strategy post-N1 needs to be altered in order to account for the fact that Quacks can't hit mafia.

If we circle-protect, then (depending on how many of the Quacks are preceded by Mafia in the player list) we will have somewhere between 1 and 4 NKs.

If there is 1 NK, then the best assumption is that all of the quacks hit Mafia and we lynch the player behind the lone kill, then reverse-circle protect the next night. 1 Quack will be revealed by the D2 lynch and the other two should be revealed by the next night's kills (also outing the two scum).

If there are 2 NKs, we lynch one of the two quack candidates (best assumption is that one is scum), and reverse circle-protect the next night (minus the confirmed quack, if applicable). I think that the numbers are enough for a good endgame for town, but I haven't run them fully.

If there are 3 NK's, we lynch one of the quack candidates (or a confirmed scum) and I'm not totally sure what to do the next night (I *think* that we reverse circle protect N2, but I am not sure).

If there are 4 NK's, then we have one group with 3 town and 1 scum and one group with 2 town and 2 scum, leaving us in a lylo

I think that the easiest way to sort out the circle protect is by player listing: each player should protect the player directly above themself on the player list.

Unvote, Vote: No Lynch
User out of ambit.

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Post Post #28 (ISO) » Thu Dec 20, 2007 6:23 pm

Post by Crub »

Vote Count:

Oman (3):
fictiondepartment, Oman, Phate
No Lynch (3):
Mastermind of Sin, Disciple Slayer, Tarhalindur
fictiondepartment (1):
vollkan
Disciple Slayer (1):
thedragonsprincess

With 12 alive, it takes 7 to lynch.
Moo?
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Post Post #29 (ISO) » Thu Dec 20, 2007 6:34 pm

Post by Oman »

unvote vote no lynch
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Post Post #30 (ISO) » Thu Dec 20, 2007 6:34 pm

Post by vollkan »

The No Lynch circle strategy seems sensible. I agree with Tar that protecting the person above you is a good way to organise it.

Unvote, Vote: No Lynch
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Post Post #31 (ISO) » Thu Dec 20, 2007 6:50 pm

Post by Lulubelle »

Might as well hasten things along then.

Vote: No Lynch
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Post Post #32 (ISO) » Fri Dec 21, 2007 2:46 am

Post by thedragonsprincess »

I think it sounds like the best solution we have at this point.
unvote vote no lynch
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Post Post #33 (ISO) » Fri Dec 21, 2007 3:06 am

Post by vollkan »

That makes 7 votes.

I remind everybody to protect the person
ABOVE
themself in the list.
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Post Post #34 (ISO) » Fri Dec 21, 2007 6:08 am

Post by Disciple Slayer »

Protecting TylerJ in advance.
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Post Post #35 (ISO) » Fri Dec 21, 2007 6:38 am

Post by shaft.ed »

OK so we're going upwards then. Oh Man! that means I have to protect Oman, hope I'm a quack :roll:
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Post Post #36 (ISO) » Fri Dec 21, 2007 6:49 am

Post by Oman »

You admiting you know I'm pro-town? :P
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Post Post #37 (ISO) » Fri Dec 21, 2007 6:51 am

Post by Oman »

I'm pretty sure MoS' breaking strat can be broken, but I'd rather not reveal cause then the mafia will know it.
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Post Post #38 (ISO) » Fri Dec 21, 2007 7:12 am

Post by shaft.ed »

Oman wrote:You admiting you know I'm pro-town? :P
You have reason to believe you aren't pro-town?
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Post Post #39 (ISO) » Fri Dec 21, 2007 7:13 am

Post by shaft.ed »

Oman wrote:I'm pretty sure MoS' breaking strat can be broken, but I'd rather not reveal cause then the mafia will know it.
And please don't as it seems we're already locked in for this day at least.
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Post Post #40 (ISO) » Fri Dec 21, 2007 7:31 am

Post by Oman »

shaft.ed wrote:
Oman wrote:You admiting you know I'm pro-town? :P
You have reason to believe you aren't pro-town?
That doesn't even make any sense, especially in context of my line.
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Post Post #41 (ISO) » Fri Dec 21, 2007 11:36 am

Post by LutenitPowwel »

Vote=Oman


Everyone is bandwagoning on him on 56, I DONT SEE WHY WE CANT DO IN NOW!!!!!

*BZZRT*

What? Where am I? Im infront of my computer...
Unvote
i guess...

Vote:Lulubelle

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Post Post #42 (ISO) » Fri Dec 21, 2007 11:38 am

Post by Oman »

Why does nobody keep they're vote on me (it must be love).
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Post Post #43 (ISO) » Fri Dec 21, 2007 12:42 pm

Post by vollkan »

Unvote, Vote: Oman


Whilst my vote will have absolutely no effect, it's staying on you.
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Post Post #44 (ISO) » Fri Dec 21, 2007 1:28 pm

Post by thedragonsprincess »

whats the point of voting still? didnt we already get a majority on no lynch?
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Post Post #45 (ISO) » Fri Dec 21, 2007 4:23 pm

Post by Crub »

What a friendly town this is! You all gather around and agree that you love each other so much that you're better of not lynching anyone today.

Final Vote Count:

No Lynch (7):
Mastermind of Sin, Disciple Slayer, Tarhalindur, Oman, vollkan, Lulubelle, thedragonsprincess

Oman (2):
fictiondepartment, Phate

It is now Night 1. Day 2 will dawn a bit over 72 hours from this post or as soon as all night choices are in.
Moo?
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Post Post #46 (ISO) » Mon Dec 24, 2007 9:11 pm

Post by Crub »

Maybe this town isn't so friendly after all. While most of you made it safely through the night, Vollkan, thedragonsprincess and Disciple Slayer aren't so lucky. Oh Noes they're dead!

It is now Day 2. With 9 alive it takes 5 to lynch.
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Post Post #47 (ISO) » Tue Dec 25, 2007 12:43 am

Post by Oman »

I'm a quack.
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Post Post #48 (ISO) » Tue Dec 25, 2007 6:09 am

Post by Mastermind of Sin »

Who targetted those three? Please claim it now.

You guys are such idiots. Why in hell's blazing inferno did you vote no lynch after poking a gigantic hole in my breaking strategy? Quack docs being unable to kill mafia completely makes that strategy useless, and you idiots ended the day anyways. WTF!?
FoS: people that voted No lynch after that was pointed out
Permanent V/LA.
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Post Post #49 (ISO) » Tue Dec 25, 2007 12:29 pm

Post by Oman »

How hilarious. Anyway, I targeted TDP, so I'm a quack.
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