Open 57 - Quack Mafia (Game Over) before 545

[TylerJ]

I apologize for the absence.. Wow a full day already! Is this normal for this kind of set up?

[TylerJ]

Ohh by the way, I ended up not sending in a night choice because I was late in finding out the game had started and that the night had past. Sorry. So I wouldn't know if I was a Quack or a Doc.

[TylerJ]

My two cents... A lot of people voted for Oman. Do I hear bandwagon... Sure a few of them were in twilight, but it more than caught my eye.

Also, Oman you should have waited till we voted to see who claims first. If we don't do it that way, we give mafia the opportunity to claim anytime they want. Leaving them the ability to claim first, or the ability to adjust their claims isn't the best idea.

[TylerJ]

would like to mention also that I will be gone through the 27-30th.

[Oman]

Umm..everyone had to protect the person above them. Thus: people should know who protected who.

[Tarhalindur]

I'm quack (...again...), killed Vollkan.

[Lulubelle]

Yeah, the plan stank. I might have voted for it, but I did so because I didn't believe I could prevent it from going through and just wanted to get things moving, as I think my vote indicated. Could be worse, this at least gives us something to work with, in the hopes that most people followed the instruction.

I'm just going to go ahead and post this without waiting for the last claim that matters. It was pretty easy to reassemble so I can't imagine I'm helping scum moreso than town.

Oman

shaft.ed

Mastermind of Sin

TylerJ

Disciple Slayer

Phate

vollkan

Tarhalindur

Lulubelle

fictiondepartment

LutenitPowwel

thedragonsprincess

The original player list might have been editted in the mod's first post but it was preserved in the waiting list, and I'm pretty sure after swapping Dean Harper with Tarhalindur gives us the correct list, since I remember that it was Tar I protected. Purple are the dead, red are our quack-candidates, green are our doc-candidates. Tyler is colourless for failing to put in a choice. Assuming scum nightkilled one of the players they were supposed to protect, then one of our quacks probably hit scum, so there ought to be one scum in among the reds and two scum and a quack in among the greens. If scum didn't nightkill, then all of the reds are quacks and three of the greens are scum. (Is that right?)

So what's the best course of action from here? Since it's entirely possible that we've already iced half of our docs, I certainly hope it's not another circle protection game.

[TylerJ]

couldn't the claimed quacks hypothetically be mafia...

[Lulubelle]

Naturally. Nobody is confirmed pro-town at this point. However, with three nightkills, quacks have to be responsible for at least two of them, so at most one of the claimed quacks can be mafia.

[shaft.ed]

Not sure how to proceed from here. I didn't like the circle protect idea, but didn't log in in time to prevent the no lynch, and didn't want to point out the flaws to the mafia in twilight. On to some numbers:

If One Quack/Mafia is scum then two Doc/Mafia are town therefore odds of lynching scum are:
Quack:1/3 = 33% chance proper lynch
Doc: 2/6 = 33% chance proper lynch
So here odds are even BUT:

If no Quack/Mafia are scum then three Doc/Mafia are town therefore odds of lynching scum are:
Quack: 0/3 = 0% chance proper lynch
Doc: 3/6 = 50% chance proper lynch

So all added up we get (this is weighting odds of mafia no kill equally with odds of mafia kill, that of course is open to debate):
Quack: 16.7%
Doc: 41.7%

Seems lynching someone from the non-killing pool would be in our best interest today based solely on the numbers.

Since we had almost no discussion D1 there's pretty much nothing to go on. But in order to move towards a player oriented discussion I'm going to

FoS Tarhalindur

for the in depth analysis showing how poor a strategy the circle protect was and still voting for it*

FoS Oman

for voting No Lynch, then later stating the breaking strategy can be broken*

FoS Lulubelle

for voting no lynch because we "might as well move things along," even after she was the first to point out a fatal flaw in the strategy

vote MoS

I've seen mafia before put forth fatal plans. Have them fairly universally accepted, and then come in the next day and blame everyone else for following their idea. I'd say that's a possibility here.

*note these players are from the Quack pool, yes I understand I'm not following my own advice.

[Lulubelle]

I voted no lynch it was already at L-2 after a number of quite astute people had already looked at it - flaw and all - and somehow saw it as sound. I have no illusions about my ability to talk a town back from a cliff so I sped things up and tried to make the best of it. You're free to suspect me for it, but I was, after all, the first to point out that the plan was fundamentally broken.

That said, I have to agree about MoS's actions. He put forth that idea in the first place, merrily sat back as the town tripped over itself to agree with him, and then blamed everyone else when it turned out sour.

Vote: Mastermind of Sin

[TylerJ]

interesting take on MoS. I'm tempted to vote him, but I djon't want to be rash...

[LutenitPowwel]

Unvote

Mastermind of Sin is pretty much an obvious bandwagon. I'm not a fan of bandwagons, so I think I'll just play it cool for a while.

Lol i just said play it cool.

[Crub]

Vote Count:

Mastermind of Sin (2):

shaft.ed, Lulubelle

Not Voting : Oman, Mastermind of Sin, TylerJ, Phate, Tarhalindur, fictiondepartment, LutenitPowwel

With 9 alive, it takes 5 to lynch.

[Oman]

Did I ever mention how it could be broken?

Mafia No-killing.

[Lulubelle]

And how exactly does no-kill break the already broken strategy any moreso than it already was?

[Oman]

Well it distorts the numbers.

If you look at how MoS was saying "1 kill we know this, this, and this" and then all of the other stuff that occured after it ("two scum in green, one in red, possibly seven in blue") means that the entire excercise was essentially worthless except those of us who do suspect ourselves of being quacks should not use their power anymore.

[TylerJ]

I'm back, I'm glad I don't need to get caught up too badly...

[Crub]

OK guys and gals, I'm giving a few more days grace with the holidays and will send out prods by the end of this week for those that haven't posted

[Oman]

Post

[shaft.ed]

Sorry the Holidays took up way more time than I had expected.

Been trying to think of a way to salvage the situation, and I can't really come up with one. It seems if there were a way to confirm the two/three Quacks that were outed that'd be quite helpful to the town, but I can't come up with a mechanism to do that other than more needless killing, or choreographed Doc protects that let scum know exactly who is exposed for killing.

I guess the upside of this is that most, if not all of, the Quack's know who they are for certain and we shouldn't be getting any more unexpected deaths. Also if they wanted to be ballsy they could use their power as a limited cop investigation, but this is probably a bad idea as it will result in a town death if wrong and could end up being confusing based on Doc protects and such.

@ Oman, how likely do you think the No-Kill was? I think it's pretty obvious that the town would have to abandon the circle protect strategy. And I find it interesting that assuming a No-Kill exonerates your night actions.

@ Lulubelle, I don't really buy the argument that because Vollkan and Tarlahinder were on board with the circle protect strategy means that it was OK to just hop on the bus and "move things along." In fact I was ready to charge after Vollkan heading into today because it is very uncharacteristic of him to go forward with a strategy without a) posting at least three page long posts about the pros & cons and b) posting at least five mathematical interpretations of the possible outcomes.

[Mastermind of Sin]

How can you possibly accuse me of sitting back to let my plan get accepted? You guys proved that my plan was dead and then rushed it to night before I even had the chance to check the thread. I couldn't have possibly posted after proposing my plan, because it was night already.

[TylerJ]

Sounds like an extremely opportunistic quick-lynch to me.

[shaft.ed]

How can you possibly accuse me of sitting back to let my plan get accepted? You guys proved that my plan was dead and then rushed it to night before I even had the chance to check the thread. I couldn't have possibly posted after proposing my plan, because it was night already.

I'm not accusing you of sitting back and letting it get accepted. I'm accusing you of putting forth such an obviously broken plan from the start. Here's the Heading of our Open Game in the Queue:

bolding mine

Quack Mafia (Open 57) - 3 Mafia, 6 Doctors, 3 Quacks (

will kill non-Mafia

, but think they're Docs), DayStart (12/12) - Mod: Crub

It's pretty obvious that Quacks don't kill mafia. So I do think you could have put this forth in hopes that it would go through, and then you would be giddy to see it "quicklynched" into effect the next time you log on. However, I also see blame laying with some of the sheep that followed such a plan.

Therefore, since these people voted for it:Mastermind of Sin,

Disciple Slayer,

Tarhalindur, Oman,

vollkan

, Lulubelle,

thedragonsprincess

And three of the seven voters ended up dead (bolded), I would say it's at the very least likely that one or two scum remain from the other voters:
Mastermind of Sin, Tarhalindur, Oman, and Lulubelle

Note that according to simple math Tarhalindur and Oman are less likely to be scum so I think a decent choice today is between MoS and Lulubelle. Since MoS originated the plan I think it's more likely he is scum. Obviously we have very little posting history to work with, so some discussion would be nice, as I would rather base a lynch off of actual game interactions.

[TylerJ]

Shaft.ed your assuming we didn't have ignorant townies on the wagn that just didn't think it through, in fact, I myself almost voted too. That would have been a mistake as I can see.

Of course your case is fifty-fifty on MoS. Either he is scum and saw the mistake. Or he was townie that didn't think of all of the options. Considering that he was smart enough to come up with the mechanism, perhaps he would have been able to come up with the flaws as well. I guess only time will tell.