Newbie 569: (Game Over)

[Battousai]

Well, I'm focusing on the three, but I'm not asking you all to do the same. Should we wait until after the holidays and CF gets back, or continue onwards?

[thevampireofdusseldorf]

Well the point is are you using this gabit as town or as scum, it has very different implacations from each pov. I see no harm in continuing on while CF is away.
You have two others to focus on anyways.
One thing from day one I don't feel like you have answered properly was about the pointing out Qx as the possible cop. Now I cant see this as being a protown move in anyway. Scum might not have thought about this possibility and certainly without a doctor you would not want to alert scum to this even if it is only a possibility. I can see in now way how this would help town and only how it would help scum.

[Battousai]

As I said- "Well QX is experienced, he knows how to claim, false claim, counterclaim, and all that and when. By me saying who I think might be cop should be no surprise to the scum. They are playing the same game we are and can draw their own conclusions on who is the cop. My opinion would be no better than theirs."

The reason I said he could be cop, was because claus was pointing out my hesitance on voting and I honestly said what I thought. My opinion, I believe, would not influence the scum to vote QX, since they were probably already planning on doing that as his head was sticking out pretty far because of his gambit.

[thevampireofdusseldorf]

Roland the issue at stake is that it does not help town to point out such things and in my and many other peoples opinons only helps scum. I am not going to change my opinion on this at all. If you see a pro town power role tell as town you keep it quiet.

Ok now in the shower I have been thinking...........
Now I see batts gambit as only helping town if he is town, so how can I try and get this to benifit town more certainly.
I suggest that everyone takes me as a given townie.
Now this is a very bold thing to ask but as batt has already done this and I believe others to have me at the lower end of their suspicions I feel ok about putting this forward.
Now how this would work...........
This then gives the two other town 3 people to look at and a certain 66.6% chance of picking the scum. This aslo gives the two scum only two people to push for a lynch (3 if they are prepared to bus). Now if you are a town then I suggest you strongly support this idea as it has obvious benifits for town and I expect scum to try and rubbish this idea.

Also those with doubts well what can I say this is very bold even bolder than batts move, but we are in lylo and if I can try and give town the edge of getting a win then I will try.
If I was scum lylo is a good position so I wouldn't expect scum to try anything too risky.

Please think about this carefuly, and I am interested in reactions to this.

[thevampireofdusseldorf]

ah sorry EBWOP sroland should read batt

[sonickid01]

I can understand me being the easy target for town but this worries me (very wierd being worried about labeled town).

Wait, why would you be worried? I don't think I exactly understand what you're saying. Is it that it could be risky dropping any one from suspicion? But if you're innocent, then why would that be risky? It's helpful more than anything?

Anyone could have killed claus for a WIFOM thing with sonic, yet you only mentioned it with me and yourself.

OK, let me see his list of reasons... my thoughts are in { }s.

Sonic: Claus supported day 2 lynch of him {The obvious choice, but brings up a slew of WIFOM}
CF: Looked suspicious in almost everyone's eyes, needed to divert attention {... to Sonic, via WIFOM}
VAMP: WIFOM of sonic
Roland: Appeared somewhat scummy to vamp and claus (from chart he was third choice) {Possibly. It might kill two birds with one stone; Claus was suspicious of me first, Quitex second (who's the cop in fact), and him last. However, toward the end of the day, Claus said he started liking my answers and had only a "lingering suspicion" of me. It would benefit Roland, as he is the only person left on the list. Plus there's the WIFOM on me.}
Battousai: WIFOM of sonic

-

So basically, everyone, including me, has a WIFOM reasoning on myself, but Roland has extra reasoning. :/

[thevampireofdusseldorf]

Sonic being worried about being labeled town by scum is valid and batt I am not sure about at all.
Read Post 378 and let me know what you think, this certainly gets me labeled town by the two other townies and is much more assuring than the chance of being deemed town by one townie.

[rolandgarros]

Ermm you guys I realize that I'm not really being helpful haha.. I've been away/busy the past few days and well I'll try to reread when I have time. Other than that though, perhaps it might be more helpful to you guys if I was replaced?

[sonickid01]

Sonic being worried about being labeled town by scum is valid and batt I am not sure about at all.
Read Post 378 and let me know what you think, this certainly gets me labeled town by the two other townies and is much more assuring than the chance of being deemed town by one townie.

I wasn't saying it's invalid, or scummy exactly- I just don't quite follow why there's any worry. I'm probably just out of it and not paying attention or something and it's really obvious, but can you just explain how you're worried about scum labeling you town (or point me to exactly where you said it before if you did and I didn't read properly)?

I'll post my thoughts on 378 later.

[sonickid01]

OK, so I don't like post 378 too much. The idea is kind of weird. It seems very risky to just assume that someone is totally townie. However, because you obviously want everyone on your side, you said that someone who disagrees is likely scum. "I expect scum will try and rubbish this idea." Your other idea (I'm fairly certain it was yours, if not correct me) didn't work extremely well before, of making the list of all the suspicions. It helped but did not lead us to the lynch, it misled us.

But I'm thinking, you may be right.
So we have all the following people left:

Roland
Batt
Sonic
Vampire
CF

Two of which are scum. We are now suspecting all of those. However, by proclaiming you townie, we have:

Roland
Batt
Sonic
CF

to suspect, two of which, if this assumption is right, are scum. Ok, so then we have four people, named 1, 2, 3, and 4. Assuming 1 and 2 are the scum, then 3 and 4 only have to suspect three people, rather than 4 with Vampire around. The chances of mislynching drop from 50% to 33%, so the chance of hitting scum rises from 50% to 66%. From 1-in-2 to 2-in-3 chance. Plus there's a sort of "scummyness bonus."

That's assuming you are town.

That is very tempting for me. However, there's one fatal flaw in the plan- what if you aren't town? It would be very easy for a scum that doesn't have a lot of suspicion on him to make this same move. The benefits of this from the POV of scum is almost scary.

In the event that you are lying and are mafia...

You can easily REDUCE your chance of getting a mafia lynched. Let me put it this way; there's 2 scum. Assuming you are one, then out of you and your partner, there's a 40% chance between you two of getting lynched, and letting the town escape from lylo (40% = 2/5) By eliminating yourself, then there's only the possibility of your partner getting lynched, which is now from 2/5- 1/4, 40% to 25%. And even if your partner does get lynched, then you're still there. :/

However, suspicion is likely to fall on you if he does get lynched. If your partner is lynched and found to be scum, suspicion can fall on you. Then it's game over. 1-in-4 chance of mafia losing. From what I've seen of your playing, I doubt that you would do that. However, this bold move in the first place leads me to believe that you would.

On the other hand, throughout the game you were fairly pro-town and I'm leaning to believe that you are genuinely trying to catch the scum. Therefore, despite the odds of you getting away with it if you were to be scum, then there is your partner. If we lynch a scum following this order then I will immediately have heavy suspicions on you. 1-in-4 chance, plus the "scummyness bonus."

I think I'll go with you on this one. Not entirely supporting it 100%. I'd say I'm supporting it about... 75%. But yes, I will assume for now that you are not scum.

Roland, what do you say about this?

[rolandgarros]

Actually looking at 378 I'm not willing to go with it at all. It makes the assumption that everyone is thinking exactly what Vampire is thinking and that anyone who doesn't like it is scum; it also tries to appease Batt by removing him from the list of suspicion. Its a very risky move and one that I don't exactly like. As a townie, I can sort of see why he would come up with this, but more clearly I can see how Vampire is more of a scum thinking he's got the wool over our eyes enough so that he can pull off such a gambit and be trusted. But I do concede that that last observation was quite shaky at the best too.

Haha right now I'm really thinking that its a good thing I haven't exactly followed this thread closely because it gives me the advantage of looking at the gambit for what it is and not being influenced by previous posts. Although I'm not so sure if thats so much of an advantage or not.

[sonickid01]

I'm willing to go with it but I'm going to watch Vampire extremely closely throughout it. I have as suspicion on him but if he is scum, we might be able to catch him and back out. But there's too much might. :/

I'm still going with it, but I'm not entirely sure about it. I'll see what happens.

If Vampire tries to go and target someone and keep trying to lead us further, I'll know that he's up to something.

[rolandgarros]

Mmm I think in your case thats the best way of handling this situation because you're more in tune with this game's trends than I am, but yeah definitely take this gambit with a grain of salt. I'll be watching as well as should everyone else thats not Vampire or Batt... Batt should watch too I guess... Because this gambit is by far the most risky one I've seen this game... It involves 2 key assumptions that in and of themselves don't have much merit in a situation that involves lynch or lose...

[thevampireofdusseldorf]

Roland it does not assume anything it is merely a suggestion to try and help town out. I do like how sonic broke it down into odds of how this would effect town if I was scum. I dont get how you say it tries to appease Batt by removing him from the list of suspicion. It only removes me from the list......but the gambit of mine is to try and extend the odds benifit to all town not just to Batt as he might not be town at all.
Now as for this being an opertune time for a scum to pull this off you would be correct in thinking this and I will not argue with that, but as scum in the situation of being a very low suspect mostly all around (as much as I can gather) why would I go and blow that with such a bold move. That does not seem to be too logical, why jepordize an already good thing. Also wiegh the possibility of me doing this as scum and my play through out the whole game to decide.

[rolandgarros]

Mmm about your point with Batt I think I might have misread your post as saying "assume me and Batt as town" but I think rereading it I might have been wrong. What were you trying to say about Batt?

The part about taking you as townie and assuming that the scum is going to try and rubbish this therefore anyone who rubbishes it is more likely scum are two key assumptions in your argument.

As for the opportune timing, taken from the light that you are scum, which I'm not saying you are, just saying its a possible perspective, this is not so much "blowing it" with such a bold move but rather taking advantage of the trust you've built.

[sonickid01]

I believe that Roland said that you were implying that Batt would be removed because you already mentioned him to have believed you to be town.

Why you would try this is fairly obvious; because you may have already tricked us.

As a townie, I can sort of see why he would come up with this, but more clearly I can see how Vampire is more of a scum thinking he's got the wool over our eyes enough so that he can pull off such a gambit and be trusted.

You may be really good at fooling people. However, that last statement you made is why I decided to accept to assume that you are town for now.

[thevampireofdusseldorf]

Re Batt: Just because batt belives me to be town or the least likely scum doens't mean I believe him to be town at all. I think sonic or cf (last page) work out how this would benifit him if he was scum. And I am not sure of either. I did see the logic of his post but it being only a pro town thing if he was town. So to try and give the benifits he would gain (if town) to all the townies I put forward my suggestion. Part of my motivation was that batt could not be town at all and there for his move held no gain to town.

Re scum rubising: That was more of a warning to town to try and think carefuly about this and not get misled by possible scum descent. If I'm town this move of mine is very pro town and given out of the 4 players to decide on the merits of this 2 are scum 2 are town. So I assumed this might be hard to try and convice people of.

Yes taking advantage is very correct but choosen at this time it is just as oppertune a town thing to do as scum.

[rolandgarros]

Yeah I do agree with your very last statement about it being opportune as town and scum; in fact that's exactly what I was saying with an emphasis on the scum part. The reason I can't take your gambit fully is because while its a good townie move, its also a good scum move, and I'm hoping that people take it for what it is and consider both sides of the coin before we move on with or without it.

[sonickid01]

People? The only person left is CF, who's gone.

Should we wait before moving on for CF to return and take an opinion on this?

[Chickenfish]

I was more or less (leaning more towards less, but yeah) happy to go with this until you said 'anyone who rubishes this is scum' (not exactly, but close enough). Every time I see that phrase, as with QX yesterday, I just can't help seeing it as scum covering all bases. This doesn't mean I think you're scum vampire, but unfortunately because you think assuming you as town is a good move isn't enough reason for me to take it. Based on the process of elimination you're actually probably my top suspect, but not because of anything in particular, but more because nobody else seems to be as out there with their ideas (so basically because you command a lot of attention its what you get). In the end I'm really just not sure, but I'm just letting you know I can't go with ya on this one

[thevampireofdusseldorf]

CF Qx used that term and was town so sure you might think scum when you hear that said but why use an example of a confirmed townie doing this.
Assuming me as town is a good move for town is what im saying and if you think about it it doesn't benifit me a great deal.
It gives the two other townies one less suspect two scum one less target but I am still left with 4 possibilities.
And your post is very disjointed logicly: This doesn't mean I think your scum, shortly followed by, your probably my top suspect.

Anyways I dont think batt has commented on this suggestion yet so I get 2 for 1 against so far.

[sonickid01]

Yeah, CF, that's what I was thinking as well.

But here's a suggestion; why don't we let CF play without assuming that you are innocent, while the rest of us do? It'll allow us to keep an eye on you while we discuss.

Eh, besides that, listen CF. It sounds like a weird idea. But it may help town; he's right, if he isn't just scum, then it definitely increases our chances of catching one. I'm unsure as well, but I think that if Vamp tries something funny, we may be able to catch him. If he perhaps tries to lead us further then I'll immediately throw some suspicion on him. :/ Plus, this isn't a lifelong commitment, we can easily get out at any time.

Vampire, attacking his post after he disagrees? A little strange in my opinion. But I assume you are town, so meh.

[Battousai]

Now, I will go along with this gambit personally, but for anyone else considering doing this, I'd say no. To me, it will be easier to go down to 3 suspects but if everyone else is doing the same and keeping the same person out of the "limelight" persay is, IMO kind of stupid. Now if you do agree to go along with it, then as roland said take it with a grain of salt. Don't blantantly take everything Vamp says as a town move and agree with it.

To shorten it- the gambit is ok if one or maybe two people go with it, but if the whole town does, then the gambit because extremely risky.

[rolandgarros]

Alright so I think we're settled with who's going to follow along and who isn't. I think vamp could go ahead and proceed with this gambit of his... I'm interested to see where he takes this.

[Battousai]

EBWOP: because should be becomes