Newbie 569: (Game Over)

[thevampireofdusseldorf]

Batt can you exlain why if everyone goes with this how it becomes risky asides from the obvious I could be scum, which I have assumed you don't think very likely?

[thevampireofdusseldorf]

What I am trying to do is to give the town a basic confirmed twonie day two. It would be like playing day two with a town result on me from the cop. How could this not help town. In fact I am going to push this even further as I belive in its obvious merits and I think town should see this too.
What is the merit in it if some accept this and not others.
It is too give benifit to the whole town and as I cant be sure of any one as town acept myself then if some do not accept then it only goes some way to doing this.
So those at the moment not accepting of this plan seems to be only CF and given how strongly I support this idea if he does not change his view on this I will be forced to vote him as my top suspect.

I know this is very heavy and looks a little like coercion by force but lets see how it goes.

[Battousai]

It is already risky by itself, but if EVERYONE goes with it, then it becomes even more so, because you can use your situation to influence the rest of the town in your favor (town or scum). The rest of the players can make up there own mind and I hope that if they do go with this gambit they take it very lightly.

Also, the reason I decided to leave you out is that you, at the time, were the least likely scum, now that you have added this little sentence, you appear more scummy to me at least.

So those at the moment not accepting of this plan seems to be only CF and given how strongly I support this idea if he does not change his view on this I will be forced to vote him as my top suspect.

Force is not the best tool to make yourself look like town in the eyes of the players.

[bird1111]

Vote Count:

Not Voting - 5 (sonickid01, thevampireofdusseldorf, Chickenfish, Battousai, rolandgarros)

With five alive, three votes will be enough to lynch.

[thevampireofdusseldorf]

Batt it only influences town on one thing, then if this is accepted (I am town) the other two townies are In a more influence/better position than I am as they have one less suspect than me. Given I would then follow the thread and contribute but working towards a lynch would be mostly on the two other townies.

If someone places a vote and there is no quick hammer then three things can be deemed possible one of them is scum or both are scum.
Very tempting to do this once you get a good suspicion on someone but I only have a 50% chance of being able to do this and if my idea is accepted the two townies have a 66% chance.

[sonickid01]

Which means, I guess, that the town is slightly divided. We're sorta breaking into little "teams" again.

Roland and I are very, VERY cautiously agreeing to the gambit. CF says against it and Batt, I think, is sort of midway.

I suggest that everyone takes me as a given townie.

So those at the moment not accepting of this plan seems to be only CF and given how strongly I support this idea if he does not change his view on this I will be forced to vote him as my top suspect.

you appear more scummy to me at least.

That worked well. :/ I just got thought it was funny, that's all.

OK, so YOU strongly support YOUR idea. Of course you would, seeing as only you know your allignment. Basically, forgive me and correct me if I misinterpret, but I think I can translate what you're saying for this whole thing: "Consider me firmly townie, and if you don't I'll vote you." So you supporting this means that everyone who is townie must? Again, forgive me if I'm mistaken, but aren't different townies entitled to (egad!) their own opinions?

The way I see it, you're trying to take over the town. Which is a very scummy move. You've played well the whole game, and I can see how you would have a dark side. You hammered Qx, the cop (granted, you did give him a chance to roleclaim however), and are now trying to totally drive the town. If I were in your position, then if this worked, the next thing I'd do is another bold move since I've already gained so much trust. If you try anything else, I'm watching you.

I'm still going with your plan, but, as Roland said, with a grain of salt. I would place an FoS on you, but that would contradict assuming you are town, wouldn't it? :^P

I thought about the whole thing. I am now going with you 60%. I think I'll give you a "3 strikes" system before I am totally suspicious of you. The forceful attempt at gaining CF's acceptance is one strike already.

[thevampireofdusseldorf]

As I know 100% that I am town I dont mind using up some of my strikes what is the difference between me trying to coerce CF and you giving me three strikes.
If you look at how this would work then it is by no means me trying to take over the town............again It would give the two other townies better odds than myself at finding scum giving the power to them to cathch scum, not any control to me.
If you are town and I know there is two of you out there I am baffled why you are not supporting this move with more strength.
Given the only reason I can come up with is that you are worried I am scum.

How do I quell this suspicion..........by becoming bolder and attracting more suspicion onto myself. I am realy putting myself out on a limb here for the benifit of town. If you dont wish to support this idea then call me scum make a case against me c'mon do it I encorage this as I can only see resistence coming from the belief I am scum yet no one has come out and said that yet.

[thevampireofdusseldorf]

As I know 100% that I am town I dont mind using up some of my strikes what is the difference between me trying to coerce CF and you giving me three strikes.
If you look at how this would work then it is by no means me trying to take over the town............again It would give the two other townies better odds than myself at finding scum giving the power to them to cathch scum, not any control to me.
If you are town and I know there is two of you out there I am baffled why you are not supporting this move with more strength.
Given the only reason I can come up with is that you are worried I am scum.

How do I quell this suspicion..........by becoming bolder and attracting more suspicion onto myself. I am realy putting myself out on a limb here for the benifit of town. If you dont wish to support this idea then call me scum make a case against me c'mon do it I encorage this as I can only see resistence coming from the belief I am scum yet no one has come out and said that yet.

[thevampireofdusseldorf]

Ah sorry somehow managed to post that twice is that a strike or a ball?

[sonickid01]

I think you might have misunderstood what I meant by strikes. I meant strikes based on suspicious moves. If that was sarcasm, then I don't like the tone.

I see your point here:

If you look at how this would work then it is by no means me trying to take over the town............again It would give the two other townies better odds than myself at finding scum giving the power to them to cathch scum, not any control to me.

However, such a bold move seems like you're trying to somehow sway the town. I don't think I like that feeling.

If you are town and I know there is two of you out there I am baffled why you are not supporting this move with more strength.
Given the only reason I can come up with is that you are worried I am scum.

Um, all four of us, the rest of us, don't 100% agree with what you're doing. That means that both the townies and both the scum are not totally going with you. Also, you only count one reason we're unsure. You're correct, your mathematical skills are entirely fine. However, if Qx or some cop were to have inspected someone and found them guilty, then told that to the town (assuming it was already proven they are cop, and it was just a random guess with no previous evidence), then there's only one reason there that they are scum too. Granted, this'll probably lead back to that potato argument since a cop and what's going on now is totally different, but my point is: it's quality, not quantity. There is a fairly decent chance that you are scum. It's that nearly blind assumption that you are not lying that bothers me. You have been very pro-town before, but listen to what I say, you could also be very good at being scum.

How do I quell this suspicion..........by becoming bolder and attracting more suspicion onto myself.

I can see what you're trying to say here. Going out as the brave hero may lend you a free "get out of jail" card. However, it brings up a WIFOM situation; what if it's, again, just an act? You could use that as a suspicion shield. :/

The resistance, Vampire, is not that I see you as scum, but see the possibility. It's very likely that you are extremely good scum. However, two more strikes and I will bring about that suspicion.

It almost seems opportunistic that someone in LyLo would go out and be Superman for us all. Or at least, that's how I see it.

I don't see any possible evidence that could directly prove that you are not scum. You could say that you were protown the whole game, but then the WIFOM appears there. I believe that the only solid possible evidence would've been one of Qx's investigations, but he's lynched.

I'd like to think of you as town. I'm still going with your plan, but as I said, 60% sure. If you could give me a reason or two of good quality (not quantity :^P) that we should assume you town, then I will be with you at least 90% or so.

Roland and Batt and CF, what is your take on the argument?

[thevampireofdusseldorf]

Ok well the only argument I can come up with is two really given if you read the mafia article on WIFOM you will see that both views on a thing in question can have different likelyhoods of being true.
To say that is pure WIFOM is true but one possibility is often more likely than the other. Is it more likely for me to attract suspicion knowingly onto myself as scum in Lylo or is it more likely I would do this as town to give town an edge in a difficult situation Lylo.
My other suggestion is to think about the reaction so far form people....If I was scum you would have three townies reacting to this suggestion (might have been easier to sell then but draw whatever conclusions you wish)
If I am town you have two town and two scum reacting to this (perhaps people will be more cautious more divided as scum dont want to come and and rubbish this idea out right)

[Chickenfish]

Is it more likely for me to attract suspicion knowingly onto myself as scum in Lylo or is it more likely I would do this as town to give town an edge in a difficult situation Lylo.

Haha biggest WIFOM ever.
vampire, before when I said you were my top suspect I pointed out it was just because the others seemed less likely, not because you'd done anything scummy. Now, however, I find you digging yourself deeper and deeper. Threatening to vote me because I didn't want to just assume for no good reason that someone (just so happens to be you) was town is no way to try to sway me to your side. Why are you pushing this so hard?

CF Qx used that term and was town so sure you might think scum when you hear that said but why use an example of a confirmed townie doing this.
Assuming me as town is a good move for town is what im saying and if you think about it it doesn't benifit me a great deal.

I'm not taking Qx as a valid example of normal play. Just because we now know he was town doesn't mean he made any more sense. Also townies have hammered townies before, but it's still something to be suspicious of.
And assuming you're town gives you no advantage? Surely you can realise thatthe only ones who know your alignment are you and the mafia (whether you're in the mafia or not), so just blatantly assuming you're town is probably the worst move we could make. If everyone proposed what you have, do you really think we should all believe everyone else was town?

[thevampireofdusseldorf]

Vote:Chickenfish

My threats are not hollow and I believe that a townie would not wish to put themselves in a situation egging me to vote for them as there is just as much chance I am town (more actualy) than scum. I could be very wrong on this but from everyones reaction I find CFs the most scum worthy.
Now if this does not lead to a quick scum win then three things are to be considered:
I am Scum
CF is Scum
We are both Scum

I will leave it at that and see what happens.

[sonickid01]

I thought of something.

The only real firm 100% way we can know who anyone is from a cop who isn't lying. That was Qx if he had gotten to Night 1. However, without firm evidence of anything... could anyone have gotten away with this? Therefore, it seems almost opportunistic of Vampire to have made this move. Maybe?

I have more thoughts, but have to go now. I'll post them later, more than likely tomorrow.

[sonickid01]

Yesterday I was typing some huge post and I accidentally hit my computer's power button just as I finished. XP

Now if this does not lead to a quick scum win then three things are to be considered:

if

IF

Strike two, Vampire. :/ You're killing yourself here. A vote in LyLo? For what, from the way I see it your reason is "he won't agree with me, therefore I don't like him." This is a dangerous position, Vampire. You've put us in a tough spot here by putting anyone at L-2. The only reasons I could really see of you doing this is that you're some kind of daredevil (which I can definitely see you as) or you're scum knowing that no one will hammer. Unfortunately, daredevils may get us killed. :/ From my point of view (I'm not insulting you personally here) you're whining about not having everyone's support.

Also, I thought of something just now.

I suggest that everyone takes me as a given townie.

How do I quell this suspicion..........by becoming bolder and attracting more suspicion onto myself

You're contradicting yourself here. You want your name cleared but are trying to make yourself seem more suspicious. Strange? If you don't want people on your case then don't be suspicious!

If I was scum you would have three townies reacting to this suggestion (might have been easier to sell then but draw whatever conclusions you wish)

Unless your scum partner is good as well.

We have both townies and both scum against you or at least not 100% with you. Does that tell you anything?

Here's an idea; why don't we take myself as a given town as well. That only leaves Roland, Batt, and CF to suspect as well. If I am not lying, then two of those are scum! Unless we get misleaded we have a guaranteed win, since the scum wouldn't hammer their partner (or maybe they would but whatever). Our chances of winning are incredibly high, 80%-90% or so. That way, the scum is totally dead meat. This has obvious benefits to the town, and anyone who disagrees will be seen as suspicious.

I had more to say but have to go.

[thevampireofdusseldorf]

I'm very tempted to pull out now.......but im happy with picking chicken as scum and sonic as his partner. Ok so I couldn't sell my idea to everyone but hey I tried and almost got there. At least I knew that this would cause some very interesting reactions from people so It was not a pointless thing to do at all.

Now that means I have picked roland and batt as town and I ask both of you to consider not just on my last few pages but on the whole game and decide if you want to be with me or against me on this.

[Chickenfish]

Well that's just plain retarded... If you're town you've just totally blown it for us...

[Battousai]

Now that means I have picked roland and batt as town and I ask both of you to consider not just on my last few pages but on the whole game and decide if you want to be with me or against me on this

That's the kicker, scum can appear as unscummy as anyone else. If we disregard the last few pages then obviously you think we will find you without a doubt, townie. You could be scum who became too aggressive or so, too soon and are trying to downplay it to earlier, pro-town posts.

[rolandgarros]

Interesting development... Will post after orthodontist appointment

[sonickid01]

Strike two, Vampire. :/

I'm very tempted to pull out now

So you were under my vote, and then it seems you just sort of cracked. :/ Yet you still have your vote on CF. More than likely, it was a mistake and I'll let it slide... for now.

Also, after I pointed out a couple of your mistakes, you seem to sort of try to abandon the idea. A little more inconspicuous than just saying "I take that back."

Also, you say you're tempted to pull out. I'm a little confused. Are you in or out? Did I convince you that the idea was tricky?

Now, it's like you tried to back yourself out right before I became fully suspicious of you. Before you can mess up again, you stop and try to avoid my vote. I believe that if you were town, would you have tried to defend yourself even if you did pull out?

OK, so if I were in your position making the same moves from the POV of scum, then here's what I would think.

"Yes! They totally trust me and think I'm a townie. And Qx was the only solid proof of anything! Why don't I try and make a bold move like totally 100% clearing my name. Half the mafia's safe then. And if they continue to believe it even after my partner is lynched I'M STILL TOTALLY SAFE! I could easily get the town killed off from there."

After Sonickid01 doesn't like/attacks (depending on how much you don't like me)...

"Dang, they've pretty much caught me. The WIFOMs didn't work too well. I was too eager, I should've been more calm and perhaps waited it out a little more and been a little less drastic. I also made a few stupid mistakes. I should probably settle down and start trying to be more like I was before, to get everyone's trust back."

--

Now as town's POV making those moves here's what I would think:

"This move will definitely help us catch the scum. Everyone'll be able to easily deduce who the scums are. This'll work out."

After Sonickid01's attack:

"Alright, so they didn't take it. The reason is that they don't believe me to be town, despite that I've played pro-town the whole game. Somehow, I need to prove that I am. Dangit, if I hadn't hammered the cop I could have some proof. Maybe I can find something. Just saying I was protown will lead to the WIFOM. :/"

Which leads me to ask you, is there anything at all that you can say to make me believe you are town? If not, then I won't immediately point you out. However I am a bit suspicious.

FOS: Vampire

Well that's just plain retarded... If you're town you've just totally blown it for us...

What do you mean by "blown it for us?" He changed his mind yeah, but what did he screw up?

[thevampireofdusseldorf]

Obviously I havent blown it for anyone as no scum have hammered so my three situations still stand.
Post 412 was rather brief as I thought there was a possibility it would be game over but now I fell confident that I have got my vote on a scum.
@ Batt no I dont wish you to disregard the last few pages and I said

you to consider

not just

on my last few pages but on the whole game

No as for the last few pages and my current change of plan, yes it had something to do with everyone not accepting this gambit but I made it clear it had to be an all or nothing for it to work succesfuly. Cf was the one to show the most resistence to this plan so I thought hmmm obviously he dont like tis at all. Both CF and Sonic were my top suspects the start of this day and this never died down. So my vote on CF was warned about and I thought it might come into play and was done to gain more reactions.
CFs post 416 seems very strange to me he didnt even want to try and convince me that he might be town but instead said if I'm town I've blown it. Well if he thought me town you would think he would be a little more concerned if he also was town.
Also sonics responses seem more interested in building a case against me than pointing out the serious danger of my vote. This to me indicates he knows on of us to be scum.

[Chickenfish]

CFs post 416 seems very strange to me he didnt even want to try and convince me that he might be town but instead said if I'm town I've blown it. Well if he thought me town you would think he would be a little more concerned if he also was town.

I assumed everyone could figure out by my 'if you're town you've blown it' meant that I am in fact town, and a townie voting for a townie in lylo means game over... How is that not saying that I'm town?
I think jsut because I wasn't willing to openly accept your complete towniness is far from being scummy, and is actually a protown move. If I was to just let people slip by my radar because 'its better if theyre town', I would be seriously jeopardising the town's ability to analyse all our options.
And because of this you VOTE for me in lylo? That is why I said it's retarded - because it is.
As for your 3 options: because posting seems quite frequent in this game it is harder for scum to hammer, as they would have to somehow know the lynching vote could be placed before the initial townie vote was on to unvote. That said, the

Interesting development... Will post after orthodontist appointment

post could well have been roland trying to let his partner know he was online so they could hammer, so I'm still not 100% sure you're town. I'm probably about 75% sure, and in lylo, that is NOT ENOUGH TO VOTE.

[Chickenfish]

EBWOP: "still not 100% sure you're scum"

[thevampireofdusseldorf]

Well that's just plain retarded... If you're town you've just totally blown it for us...

so I'm still not 100% sure you're town. I'm probably about 75% sure, and in lylo, that is NOT ENOUGH TO VOTE.

Cf you are getting people lost in your nonsense. My big issue is that your first post is kenly aware of the possibility that I am town and you obviously have to try and convice others you are town. But both of these things (given scum havent hammered and they can do this to win) are not compatible. Your only obvious way of getting out of this is to call me scum or else you are scum. And you havent even done this. In your first post if you were town and believed me to be town which you clearly stated it as a possibility (without the mention of me being scum) I would expect you to at least try and get me to think otherwise as you said that would be game over. A townie would provide a very good defence on the spot to stop a town vs town vote in Lylo. But this you didn't do. Why either you believe me to be scum (which I haven't seen properly said) or you are scum.

[thevampireofdusseldorf]

CF the only way to know someone 100% anything is having a sane cop result on them or them being lynched. So in this situation lylo no guilty cop result, any vote can not be done with 100% certainty. At some stage of prceedings someone has to place the first vote and if this does not lead to a scum win it does give the town at least one posible scum to look at.