Micro 812 - The Arena II - Game Over

[Irrelephant11]

yes, but I won't be sharing much until you and Dunnstral have both said your piece.

Why the switch from mylo nights 1 and 2 to ceejay n3?

[Something_Smart]

Fair.

Off the top of my head I don't remember. I think it might have been something that ceejay said that felt off.

[Something_Smart]

It might have been ceejay's naked Not_Mafia vote that made me nervous, but I think it's more likely that I reread Mylo and liked his stuff (like 210) a bit more.

[Irrelephant11]

Anything else you can think of to clear things up for me more?

[Dunnstral]

If you want to know anything else like why I picked SS tonight and not you or who my gladiates would be or why I can answer tomorrow

I will want this, yes

BlackStar, ZZZX, ceejayvinoya, ceejayvinoya, Irrelephant11, Something_Smart

Day 2 BlackStar because when I tried to talk to him about the wagons he basically ignored me and hammered
I explained why I picked ZZZX on day 3
Ceejay on day 4 because I was looking at the people who voted scioness sajj day 1
You day 5 because you seemed most likely to me by poe
Today I picked Something_Smart because I really didn't think you would pick me because I didn't think you'd think you could beat me so I went for Something_Smart - I did have some suspicion on him yesterday (I'd say around 25%) that I just never voiced because I didn't think it was beneficial (you 2 already both seemed to sr him more than me so there was no use revealing my thoughts to). Like I said yesterday he didn't want me to lose my scumread on you and wanted to end things with me gladiating you for his win.

-When SS was gladiator it was against ceejay who was the de facto lynch - in other words super safe for him

I'm not going to try to refute this entire thing, I'll just point out that this is true for Dunn as well (against ZZZX).

This isn't true, nobody was talking about ZZZX, there was a sort of consensus that ceejay was getting lynched

[Dunnstral]

I mean, it's a wifomy game. You can't really avoid arguments like that.

I think the key point of this game was Day 3, where Dunn was chosen as gladiator after saying he suspected me. This was after Not_Mafia was dead, so if I were scum and Dunn had chosen me, I would have almost certainly lost on the spot. Dunn himself pointed this out, which was the reason that both of us were left alone. That's really the only reason I didn't consider Dunn as scum; because if scum he essentially towncleared me for no reason by doing that. And that's a reason equally valid from an objective perspective-- if he were scum he would have just made things mechanically MUCH harder on himself.

This logic was valid right up until the dawn of this day, when Dunn essentially retracted his claim that I am clear from that pick. Since he is no longer calling me town for it, that objective reason why EVERYONE should have been townreading him was made invalid, since the motive in keeping me around when there is suspicion on me is very clearly EASIER for scum-Dunn if he does plan to eventually add me back to the lynchpool.

I am by no means saying that he would not have done this as town, but that was the only reason

I

kept him alive, at least. Now that it's invalid, it requires no assumptions of extraordinary play, gambiting, or guessing to assume that Dunn is scum; whereas, to assume that I'm scum still assumes that I gladiated into the only person who expressed a scumread on me, and a fairly decisive scumread at that, in the hope that he would get out-WIFOMed and target someone else. (Not to mention that Flubber was chosen D2 who had ALSO expressed some suspicion on me.)

Is there anything that you think makes Dunn towny?

What do you mean it's the only reason you kept me alive? When did you ever have the chance to lynch me? Because it looks like you're thinking about gladiates in your head here

There's another reason I'm townread it's because day 1 I voted NM and I'll outline it here:

VOTE: not mafia

This is the 1st vote, it's 4 to lynch

Had issues connecting to MS, finally solved today. let me read up.

I know there's a lot to take in but let us know when you've processed it all.

And then I decided to challenge him

Even if you're town if you're going to get picked again and do dumb challenges I don't see why we should keep you around and I'm not seeing a case against scioness

VOTE: not_mafia

My vote here brings it to 2-0 for not_mafia to be lynched

What happens next couldn't have been predicted: 3 town players vote scioness sajj one after another and derail the NM wagon that was gaining momentum.
I reach out to Blackstar and ask him what he thinks, he brushes me off and hammers scioness sajj

Something_Smart is kind of frozen during this whole thing, he doesn't seem to have anything relevant to say regarding the wagons here

[Something_Smart]

Anything else you can think of to clear things up for me more?

I mean, I won't pretend I remember the specific reason why.

I think I just reread their ISOs and decided I liked Mylo's more.

[Irrelephant11]

SS my question was more “what other information helps me solve this game?”
Dunn if you can think of anything else go for it

[Something_Smart]

Oh, I see.

Is there anything you want me to talk about more regarding what happened Day 3? I think what happened there, keeping in mind that Dunn challenged me today, gives you plenty of information. I don't know how well you know me, but I'm certainly not one to rely on major mind games, especially if I had to wait for someone else to point it out.

Like I said before with Flubber, I don't think Dunn's bussing of Not_Mafia on day 1 means much (since Not_Mafia is mostly a deadweight partner and low-content people tend to be lynched in nightless games), and in fact it might show that he knew more than he was supposed to, since voting Not_Mafia there really didn't make much sense.

[Dunnstral]

SS my question was more “what other information helps me solve this game?”
Dunn if you can think of anything else go for it

This:

In my experience Dunn is both very willing to bus and good at making it look natural.

I don't see any bus warning signs but I also don't see anything that makes it unlikely.

I think he thinks he is going to have to go against me at this point and is setting up for it

[Dunnstral]

And I don't think Flubber deserves much credit for challenging Not_Mafia, because Not_Mafia is someone who rarely gets near endgame as scum. (In fact it would be really weird to challenge Not_Mafia after it was the consensus that Not_Mafia was town for being chosen, so maybe it does in fact demonstrate extra information.)

Like I said before with Flubber, I don't think Dunn's bussing of Not_Mafia on day 1 means much (since Not_Mafia is mostly a deadweight partner and low-content people tend to be lynched in nightless games), and in fact it might show that he knew more than he was supposed to, since voting Not_Mafia there really didn't make much sense.

And this

You should look at days 1 and 2 when the NM wagon was forming and see how SS acted towards that

[BNL]

VC 7.1

Dunnstral (0) -
Something_Smart (0) -
Not Voting (1) - Irrelephant11

Mod notes:
With 1 vote in play it takes 1 to lynch
The deadline is on 6 August 7am UTC-4, or in (expired on 2018-08-06 07:00:00)

[Irrelephant11]

K if that's all you have to share I'll be re-reading, then sharing my thoughts, with room for you to point out anything you think I've gotten wrong, then casting my vote

[Irrelephant11]

I interrupted my own re-reading to gather these thoughts about the ideal picks for each of you last night if scum:

Something_Scum's options last night:

1 Choose Irrelephant, who's more likely to gladiate SS. Dunn might lynch Irrelephant. 4/10 [rating here is how good of choice this would be for this player]

2 Choose Dunn, who's more likely to gladiate Irrelephant. If not, Irrelephant is more likely to lynch SS. 7.5/10

3 Be the challenger, gladiate Irrelephant. Dunn is more likely to lynch Irrelephant because "SS was the challenger" WIFOM & expressed reads. 6/10 (+1 is 7/10)
---This requires the idea that SS would be able to argue that scum!Irrelephant would choose SS as the challenger, which... I guess works. +1/10

4 Be the challenger, gladiate Dunn. Probably loses to Dunn on this one. 4/10
---This requires the idea that SS would be able to argue that scum!Dunnstral would choose SS as the challenger, which... doesn't work as well. No point change.

Scumstral's choices last night:

1 Choose Irrelephant, who almost certainly gladiates SS, unless WIFOMrelephant aims it back at Dunn (ftr I did gladiate SS last night). Even then, a medium-good shot at winning against Irrelephant. 8.5/10

2 Choose SS, who probably chooses Dunnstral. Probably 50/50 shot here, maybe slightly better. 6/10

3 Be the challenger, gladiate Irrelephant. Kind of a weird one, includes a lot of wifom, maybe Dunnstral argues out of this one and wins. 5/10 (-1 is 4/10)
---Requires being able to argue the idea that scum!Irrelephant would choose Dunnstral as challenger, which really doesn't make much sense. -1/10

4 Be the challenger, gladiate SS. A good shot at winning against SS, given what I've said before this game day. 7/10 (+1 is 8/10)
---Requires being able to argue the idea that scum!SS would choose Dunnstral as challenger, which makes a lot of sense, actually. +1/10

This analysis did not get me as far as I wanted it to, but it does suggest that Dunn being the challenger is best choice Scum!SS could have made, while scum!Dunn only makes this choice if he thinks the benefit of wifom outweighs the loss of a bit of win equity (i.e. this was Dunnstral's second-best choice if scum, which only makes sense as a wifomy move).

Feel free to point out what I missed here

[Something_Smart]

I don't agree with the assumption that I would have seen Dunn as more likely to challenge you. He voted Flubber which at least showed some indication of townreading you, and he never really made his opinion on either of us clear.

And I definitely would not have trusted Dunn to gladiate who I expected him to, especially with what he pulled on day 3, and indeed it does seem right from town!Dunn's perspective to gladiate me, since scum!you would never make him the challenger and risk having ME decide between you two after you just spent all that time calling me scum.

It seemed fairly clear that the most likely challenge would be between me and you, and as scum I would have trusted in my ability to out-argue you more than my ability to out-WIFOM Dunn. If I weren't still sticking to my random plan (and it would probably have been smart to abandon it at that point), I would have made myself gladiator and challenged you.

I don't know why he didn't pick you, but I can guess that he probably expected a quick win. (Which I do have to thank you for not giving to him.) It's just a question of, does he think you will scumread me more with no discussion or with discussion. And if the answer to that question is unclear, then it's equally good for him to make you the gladiator as it is for him to challenge me-- both will result in a win if you ultimately end up scumreading me.

It's definitely plausible that he could believe that you have more doubt than you let on, but that he can make a more convincing case than I can today and remove some of that doubt for when you vote.

That all make sense? Was just trying to get all my thoughts out, and if it got a bit jumbled I can definitely clarify.

[Dunnstral]

If I weren't still sticking to my random plan (and it would probably have been smart to abandon it at that point), I would have made myself gladiator and challenged you.

There's a sort of cog-dis here where SS argues that he would have never made me gladiator day 3 but is also still arguing that they would have randomized the gladiator choice every day

[Something_Smart]

Exactly!

If I were scum, I would have thought about that already

[Irrelephant11]

he can make a more convincing case than I can today

SS do you agree with this idea

[Irrelephant11]

the idea that Dunnstral can make a more convincing case than you, that is?

[Something_Smart]

he can make a more convincing case than I can today

SS do you agree with this idea

Not sure. Ultimately it depends on what you consider convincing, I guess.

In terms of evidence, there is certainly a lot, mostly small things, that Dunnstral COULD point to, particularly vote-related since I'm very conservative with votes, something which becomes especially clear in a nightless setup where most people are very liberal with them.

I do know that, if I can get talking, I'm pretty good at getting myself correctly townread as town. And I have really one piece of evidence, which I think is huge but that Dunn might not have necessarily thought YOU would consider it so major. And I'm a proponent of the idea that a case should make itself; I shouldn't need to walk you through EVERYTHING because it's so easy to construct a narrative like that as scum. I've given you what should probably be enough to make you see what I do-- but if it's not, I'm happy to explain stuff more.

So whether my case is more convincing is going to depend on... what you are convinced by, really. I bet most people familiar with me would have identified me as town by now, and I'm sure there are some people who would have voted me without hesitation at daystart.

[Something_Smart]

So whether my case is more convincing is going to depend on... what you are convinced by, really. I bet most people familiar with me would have identified me as town by now, and I'm sure there are some people who would have voted me without hesitation at daystart.

I guess I got distracted and didn't quite finish my thought here. You are obviously neither, but I don't really know how much you understand my playstyle and way of thinking. If you understand it well, then I would expect my case to be very convincing; if not, then I would not be so optimistic.

[BNL]

VC 7.2

Dunnstral (0) -
Something_Smart (0) -
Not Voting (1) - Irrelephant11

Mod notes:
With 1 vote in play it takes 1 to lynch
The deadline is on 6 August 7am UTC-4, or in (expired on 2018-08-06 07:00:00)

[Irrelephant11]

NM is both one of the easiest yet hardest players to lynch in general. So I am expecting someone who picked him day 1 to know enough about him.

Otherwise it's a weird pick

Are you assuming NM is town?

had the same thought about post 31

In other news Blackstar is scummy

Why did you think this dunn? Here are Blackstar's posts at the time:

Hi

What's his reputation?

Well, I am more about waiting for something to happen at this point.

We can't vote so we can't really apply pressure yet..

Pretty much

[Irrelephant11]

Wait yeah actually Dunnstral who did you pick N1? You talk about picking blackstar for his D2 play but he's the first in your list? And then you only talk about picking ceej once but he's in your list twice? I'm confused in regards to your 454

[Irrelephant11]

Nevermind I re-read and it makes sense if you just accidentally put ceej in there twice. Please verify this though and answer my 472