Elemental Mafia- Game Over!


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Post Post #75 (ISO) » Thu Apr 17, 2008 5:24 am

Post by Adel »

assuming that each cult was successful last night, that leaves the expected breakdown of:

2 air cultists
2 water cultists
2 earth cultists
2 fire cultists
1 SK

15 townie-aligned players

any living player has about a 1/3 chance of being anti town

each existing cult is too small to manipulate wagons

~~~

if we only lynched one player before the 3 week deadline expires, then we should lynch as many players as we possibly can. yes, we should lynch them as quickly as possible.

~~~

if a cop had a successful investigation last night, that person should only claim if they are within a few votes of getting lynched (waiting until lynch -1 for a claim will slow us down too much)

~~~

unvote, vote: elvis knits


taffmaster should be next after elvis knits
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Post Post #76 (ISO) » Thu Apr 17, 2008 5:27 am

Post by Adel »

Adel wrote:
if we only lynched one player before the 3 week deadline expires, then we should lynch as many players as we possibly can. yes, we should lynch them as quickly as possible.
EBWOP:
if we only lynched one player before the 3 week deadline expires, then we could be left with as few as 1 out of every 2 players being town aligned. we should lynch as many players as we possibly can. yes, we should lynch them as quickly as possible.

I think we should only stop when we are left with two cults left or one cult and the sk left.
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Post Post #77 (ISO) » Thu Apr 17, 2008 5:30 am

Post by Adel »

has anyone worked out the effects of a mass claim?
My hunch is that we have four cops. Day 1 would be the worst day for cultists to fakeclaim. With a mass claim, and a bunch of quicklynches of the unknown players, we should be able to reduce the game to only the actual cops and the fakeclaimed cops? thoughts?
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Post Post #78 (ISO) » Thu Apr 17, 2008 5:38 am

Post by ooba »

Adel wrote:has anyone worked out the effects of a mass claim?
My hunch is that we have four cops. Day 1 would be the worst day for cultists to fakeclaim. With a mass claim, and a bunch of quicklynches of the unknown players, we should be able to reduce the game to only the actual cops and the fakeclaimed cops? thoughts?
How'd you say four cops? Hmm , a mass claim and lynching all non cops - it will probably lead us to a position where end game scum Night kill actions will determine the end. I'd say lynch people semi randomly till we get at least 3 of the Cult leaders is a better strategy ..
Adel wrote:taffmaster should be next after elvis knits
QFT
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Post Post #79 (ISO) » Thu Apr 17, 2008 5:39 am

Post by TheSweatpantsNinja »

Vote elvis_knits.


Massclaim
seems
like a good idea. The best part is, the claim would force the cults into choosing either to kill the cops or recruit, and the sk has no interest in hunting down cult cops. So massclaim seems like a good plan (and, y'know, I've always wanted to massclaim Day 1.)

I propose that first player we lynch pick the next player to be lynched.
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Post Post #80 (ISO) » Thu Apr 17, 2008 5:41 am

Post by Adel »

ooba wrote:
Adel wrote:has anyone worked out the effects of a mass claim?
My hunch is that we have four cops. Day 1 would be the worst day for cultists to fakeclaim. With a mass claim, and a bunch of quicklynches of the unknown players, we should be able to reduce the game to only the actual cops and the fakeclaimed cops? thoughts?
How'd you say four cops?
it is the only way I can see this setup leaving a chance for the town to win.
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Post Post #81 (ISO) » Thu Apr 17, 2008 5:43 am

Post by ooba »

TheSweatpantsNinja wrote:
Vote elvis_knits.


Massclaim
seems
like a good idea. The best part is, the claim would force the cults into choosing either to kill the cops or recruit, and the sk has no interest in hunting down cult cops. So massclaim seems like a good plan (and, y'know, I've always wanted to massclaim Day 1.)

I propose that first player we lynch pick the next player to be lynched.
Cops are non recruitable
BM from first page wrote:Role: Temperature Cop
Recruitable: Not a chance.
BM from first page wrote:Role: Density Cop
Recruitable: Erm, no. Sorry!
Still not sure about mass claim - like i said it leads to the point where night actions determine what happens rather than our lynches.
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Post Post #82 (ISO) » Thu Apr 17, 2008 5:48 am

Post by ooba »

Adel wrote:
ooba wrote:
Adel wrote:has anyone worked out the effects of a mass claim?
My hunch is that we have four cops. Day 1 would be the worst day for cultists to fakeclaim. With a mass claim, and a bunch of quicklynches of the unknown players, we should be able to reduce the game to only the actual cops and the fakeclaimed cops? thoughts?
How'd you say four cops?
it is the only way I can see this setup leaving a chance for the town to win.
You're missing something but i'm not going to tell that out loud. Anywayz elvis_knits needs quick lynching .. more votes !!
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Post Post #83 (ISO) » Thu Apr 17, 2008 5:48 am

Post by TheSweatpantsNinja »

I'd say it leaves the game to be determined by how good our semi-random lynches are, because we can pretty well wreck some cults right now.

And ooba, what I meant was it forces the cult to choose between killing the cops and recruiting someone else.
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Post Post #84 (ISO) » Thu Apr 17, 2008 5:48 am

Post by TaffMaster »

Adel wrote:
unvote, vote: elvis knits


taffmaster should be next after elvis knits
Why?
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Post Post #85 (ISO) » Thu Apr 17, 2008 5:50 am

Post by TheSweatpantsNinja »

Because we hate you.
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Post Post #86 (ISO) » Thu Apr 17, 2008 5:54 am

Post by TaffMaster »

Thats a lie.
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Post Post #87 (ISO) » Thu Apr 17, 2008 5:55 am

Post by TaffMaster »

Also just to remind myself:

Adel > Sweatpantsninja > ooba.

Thats my order for my own notes.
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Post Post #88 (ISO) » Thu Apr 17, 2008 5:58 am

Post by TheSweatpantsNinja »

Anyway, massclaim: I'm assuming a few other powerroles (four cops or otherwise) sprinkled here and there. Let's say there are. . . six. Six seems reasonable.

So we claim. We presumably get down to half claimed power roles and half counterclaims, and from there, it does come down to luck on the nightkills, like ooba said. Scum will probably make up some roles too, so we might have more scum left than town. Yeah, I don't think massclaim works. But we should obviously bandwagon to claim and lynch as many times as possible today.
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Post Post #89 (ISO) » Thu Apr 17, 2008 6:06 am

Post by TaffMaster »

A massclaim wont work and I will oppose it and refuse to claim. Infact I refuse to claim day 1 at all, even if I'm close to lynch.
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Post Post #90 (ISO) » Thu Apr 17, 2008 6:14 am

Post by TheSweatpantsNinja »

. . . That's a really good reason to lynch you day 1.
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Post Post #91 (ISO) » Thu Apr 17, 2008 6:15 am

Post by kabenon007 »

But remember, there are limits on the recruiters powers. The recruiters cannot coordinate their recruiting, and remember that the Fire and Ice cults can't recruit or kill the same person, and the Earth and Wind can't recruit. That could change how many cultists we have or don't have.
I put the "laughter" in manslaughter.
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Post Post #92 (ISO) » Thu Apr 17, 2008 6:16 am

Post by kabenon007 »

EBWOP:
unvote, vote:Taffmaster
. Go wagon go, die scum die.
I put the "laughter" in manslaughter.
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Post Post #93 (ISO) » Thu Apr 17, 2008 6:18 am

Post by TaffMaster »

TheSweatpantsNinja wrote:. . . That's a really good reason to lynch you day 1.
No its not, its superbly dumb. But you know, if you want you can try it and see what happens
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Post Post #94 (ISO) » Thu Apr 17, 2008 6:20 am

Post by TaffMaster »

Its superbly dumb to think that is what I meant.

Why should I claim? It only means the bandwagon moves to another person and then they claim and we go on a merry go round. If you want to try and lynch me go ahead punks, make my day, you wont get me claiming though.
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Post Post #95 (ISO) » Thu Apr 17, 2008 6:24 am

Post by Adel »

ok, lets finish this elvis knots lynch, and then lynch taffmaster, and then move on to lurkers.

I suspect that trying to coordinate a mass claim would take up most of our time, and we are better off going with the semi-random lynches. We really need to lynch as many people as possible before this day ends.
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Post Post #96 (ISO) » Thu Apr 17, 2008 6:25 am

Post by mneme »

time is of the essence, so
unvote
vote: . Elvis Knits


But taffmaster's next on my list.
Did I say too much?
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Post Post #97 (ISO) » Thu Apr 17, 2008 6:26 am

Post by Macavenger »

I'm a bit leery of starting quicklynches already. Unless we get a little more to go on than we have now, I think we're as likely to devastate the town to no good purpose as to actually get the cults. Two weeks would still be plenty of time to quicklynch a good half a dozen people if we used normal scumhunting for a week or so first to get a better idea of who to target.

Assuming that all cults were successful is a bad idea, I think. Assuming 4 cops, just from the roles presented there are at least 9/24 targets that will fail for each recruiter. Since BM hints at the possibility of other power roles, I'd guess 12/24 as being perhaps a more likely figure. We should still have ~1/3 anti-town currently, but I'd consider that a high end rather than low end estimate. It should also make our projections for Day 2 a little less dire. There's also no way they could move us directly to night Day 2 - they won't know they have half the town if they even do, and they can't coordinate with each other.

Given the possibility of other power roles, I'm against a massclaim - it won't simplify things nearly as much as if there were only cops, and it will point out the vanillas to any cult recruiters that survive today, making their job easier.

Unvote; Vote: TheSweatPantsNinja

Wishy-washy about quicklynching and massclaiming, and seems way too eager to run up both elvis and taff for rather specious reasons.
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Post Post #98 (ISO) » Thu Apr 17, 2008 6:27 am

Post by Adel »

Macavenger should follow taffmaster.
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Post Post #99 (ISO) » Thu Apr 17, 2008 6:32 am

Post by TaffMaster »

Adel give me one reason why you deserve to live over the people you are queuing up to lynch?

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