Micro 1061: If Trees Could Scream [Game Over]

[Don Draper x Mistress]

1/4 chance to hit Arso this day from my pov.

I don’t like this post. It’s far more likely to come from scum

vs

It's probably either Ircher/furtive or bear/porkens here

This post is very specific which is far more likely to come from town.

Ircher locked me in as town, also townie thought process.

[Don Draper x Mistress]

Porkens/Enchant

You’re welcome furtive.

[Enchant]

Whatever?

[Enchant]

I don't like this bullshit pumping from you.

[Enchant]

Why i would ignite when town choped my douse target, and i end up in elo with bad disguise, literally wtf?

In any case, just waiting one night with douse is safest play which i would take.


Also i don't care, furtive should had claimed anyway.

[Vanderscamp]

Arso is incompetent.

I agree.


I also really think it's Ircher.
Not that bear was towny on that final day, but it's a joke that we hammered him and just allowed Ircher to get away with not explaining any of his reads despite aggressive prompts over many days to get him to do so.

[Vanderscamp]

I THINK ENCHANT IS ARSONIST AND WON'T HAMMER ME BECAUSE THEY KNOW I WASN'T A DOUSE TARGET

ALSO, FURTIVE MAY HAVE BEEN THE N1 TARGET BECAUSE THEY SCARED PORKENS

Can you explain this? We obviously have to lim someone today and the only player who is very likely not to have been a douse target is Ircher and I’ve pretty much completely removed him from my PoE.

So, I don’t know who else Enchant thinks we’d lim today if not you?

And why in god's name have you completely removed Ircher from your POE?

[Vanderscamp]

I don't like this bullshit pumping from you.

Do you think Don is more likely scum here than either me or Ircher?

How do you feel about Don's contributions throughout the rest of the game?

[Vanderscamp]

I'm very very confident it's VOTE: Ircher.

[Vanderscamp]

Like, what has Ircher actually done that is town, except for presumably bussing Porkens?

I think both Don and Enchant have both clearly at least made an effort, and while I disagree with a lot of what they've had to say, they've at least showed reasonable thought processes and have given passion.

Ircher has not done anything resembling that for the entire game, and him refusing to talk about his reads or his progression of his reads is a massive massive red flag for me.

[Don Draper x Mistress]

UNVOTE:

for now

Vanders tell me why you’re so sure it’s Ircher?

[Don Draper x Mistress]

It’s not Vanders. It’s possible I’m being pocketed.

[Don Draper x Mistress]

Hi Aero!

VOTE: irchir

Good wagon start.

BE ALERT! VOTE: DON DRAPER EXPECT THE UNEXPECTED. BE FIRE SAFE.

Nooooo why back off the e-1? That was good pressure stride

I actually forgot about this.

Sorry Enchant, maybe I jumped the gun since Scrrdbear was sussing you for that.

[Vanderscamp]

UNVOTE:

for now

Vanders tell me why you’re so sure it’s Ircher?

You have generally been pretty obvtown throughout the game, and I've talked a bit about Ircher above.

My main reasoning why it isn't enchant is that while I agree that the FF claiming stuff was anti-town, at least he was trying, which is more than Ircher has done.
I also agree with him that igniting last night was (sorry scum) absurdly poor play and I believe him when he talks about why he wouldn't have done it.

[Vanderscamp]

It’s not Vanders. It’s possible I’m being pocketed.

I'm slightly worried I'm wrong and just really tunneled!

But the issue is that I know that if I get to a final three with Ircher and anyone else and I'm wrong, I'm just not going to be able to ever re-evaluate unless Ircher massively changes it up compared to what he's said previously.

Atm it is just really a non-decision for me, BEAR being alive was at least a decision.

[Enchant]

I don't like this bullshit pumping from you.

Do you think Don is more likely scum here than either me or Ircher?

How do you feel about Don's contributions throughout the rest of the game?

I don't know. I wanted to open today with plan "let's kill both vander and ircher and win lol".
Yeah, arso can't kill tomorrow, so go wild.


Let's pull everything we know.

There's only 2 ignited: Screrbear (BEAR in future) and furtive self.

It means that furtive did stop one prime somehow. We don't know for sure, but if we discover who he would protect and who arso primed, it will be easier to win.


N1 is unknown
N2 is unknown
N3 is obvious. They doused furtive who claimed. Considering Arso is notcompetent and wanted to get rid of FF ASAP, it means BEAR was doused before, not furtive. If furtive was doused beforehand, then why they didn't ignite instantly if this was goal?
N4 is ignite. Obvs.


On n1-2 they doused BEAR and some other person. I gonna bet that scum doused BEAR at N1, because he looked towny at that point and it's unlikely to quess prime at N1. It's possible but still.


TLDR:
So most likely, at N2, furtive protected someone and prevented them from going hot potato.

Who it would be?

Who would arsos prime N2 and furtive to protect N2?

[Enchant]

... Eh. I can bet Don Draper was protected from death.

Ircher? lol, no.
Me? lol!
Vander? Did furtive even townread you? I don't remember.

[Vanderscamp]

I don't like this bullshit pumping from you.

Do you think Don is more likely scum here than either me or Ircher?

How do you feel about Don's contributions throughout the rest of the game?

I don't know. I wanted to open today with plan "let's kill both vander and ircher and win lol".
Yeah, arso can't kill tomorrow, so go wild.


Let's pull everything we know.

There's only 2 ignited: Screrbear (BEAR in future) and furtive self.

It means that furtive did stop one prime somehow. We don't know for sure, but if we discover who he would protect and who arso primed, it will be easier to win.


N1 is unknown
N2 is unknown
N3 is obvious. They doused furtive who claimed. Considering Arso is notcompetent and wanted to get rid of FF ASAP, it means BEAR was doused before, not furtive. If furtive was doused beforehand, then why they didn't ignite instantly if this was goal?
N4 is ignite. Obvs.


On n1-2 they doused BEAR and some other person. I gonna bet that scum doused BEAR at N1, because he looked towny at that point and it's unlikely to quess prime at N1. It's possible but still.


TLDR:
So most likely, at N2, furtive protected someone and prevented them from going hot potato.

Who it would be?

Who would arsos prime N2 and furtive to protect N2?

It's also not super likely but definitely possible that scum targeted Furtive at some point before N3.
I agree that your scenario is the most likely but it's a pretty dangerous game to try to win based on those assumptions.
I'm assuming either Don or I was the save at some point.

[Enchant]

Well, theory is same.

Don or you was protected.

[Vanderscamp]

... Eh. I can bet Don Draper was protected from death.

Ircher? lol, no.
Me? lol!
Vander? Did furtive even townread you? I don't remember.

Pretty sure he did, he made a comment during the CC day where he omitted me from the list of Porkens' possible partners, which I thought was kind of strange at the time since I was arguing to not kill Porkens.

Not that it makes me think I was a lock to get saved or anything, but hopefully it helps prove that me igniting last night is not a thing. I already think it's pretty awful but it's not like I would have been afraid of either furtive or bears' reads.
And if it helps, I've played this set as scum before on a different site, I can link the scum chat if anyone wants.

[Don Draper x Mistress]

UNVOTE:

for now

Vanders tell me why you’re so sure it’s Ircher?

You have generally been pretty obvtown throughout the game, and I've talked a bit about Ircher above.

My main reasoning why it isn't enchant is that while I agree that the FF claiming stuff was anti-town, at least he was trying, which is more than Ircher has done.
I also agree with him that igniting last night was (sorry scum) absurdly poor play and I believe him when he talks about why he wouldn't have done it.

Actually good point, because if Ircher was town here, I would think arsonist would have targeted him.

The fact that no one other than furtive died probably means that furive made steller protects. I actually think ff trued to burn all of their douses but furive cleverly outsmarted them.

I don’t believe arso only tried to burn furtive.

[Don Draper x Mistress]

I don't like this bullshit pumping from you.

Do you think Don is more likely scum here than either me or Ircher?

How do you feel about Don's contributions throughout the rest of the game?

I don't know. I wanted to open today with plan "let's kill both vander and ircher and win lol".
Yeah, arso can't kill tomorrow, so go wild.


Let's pull everything we know.

There's only 2 ignited: Screrbear (BEAR in future) and furtive self.

It means that furtive did stop one prime somehow. We don't know for sure, but if we discover who he would protect and who arso primed, it will be easier to win.


N1 is unknown
N2 is unknown
N3 is obvious. They doused furtive who claimed. Considering Arso is notcompetent and wanted to get rid of FF ASAP, it means BEAR was doused before, not furtive. If furtive was doused beforehand, then why they didn't ignite instantly if this was goal?
N4 is ignite. Obvs.


On n1-2 they doused BEAR and some other person. I gonna bet that scum doused BEAR at N1, because he looked towny at that point and it's unlikely to quess prime at N1. It's possible but still.


TLDR:
So most likely, at N2, furtive protected someone and prevented them from going hot potato.

Who it would be?

Who would arsos prime N2 and furtive to protect N2?

Right, Ircher thought Bear was FF not furtive.

[Don Draper x Mistress]

@Ircher, who do you sr other than Titus and who are your townreads?

~Nancy

From town to scum:

Ircher
Vanderscamp
SCRRRDBEAR
Don Draper x Mistress (hydra of Nancy Drew 39 and Auro)
furtiveglance
Enchant
Porkens
Herta
Titus

Town: {Ircher}
Lean Town: {SCRRDBEAR, Draper}
Neutral Town: {furtiveglance}
Neutral Scum: {Enchant, Vanderscamp}
Lean Scum: {Porkens}

Town: {Ircher}

Lean Town: {SCRRDBEAR, Draper}

Neutral Town: {furtiveglance}
Neutral Scum: {Enchant, Vanderscamp}
Lean Scum: {Porkens}

Can you explain those reads? Why is Scrrrbear your most confident town and why do you sr Enchant and Vanders?

@Ircher, can you please answer this?

I don't really feel like explaining practically all my reads. I will oblige you if you narrow it down to a single read you're most interested in hearing about.

Scrrrbear, Enchant, Vanderscamp

That's three names, not one.

I town read SCRRRDBEAR for ~reasons~.

1) @Ircher, in what game ever have you been to damned busy to explain your reads?

2) Also your reads contradict the claims. Obviously Porkens and furtive can’t both be scum here but you claim to sr both of them.

1) Plenty of games; it ebbs and flows.
2) I don't have precognition of claims.

Like I said, I thought SCRRRDBEAR was the firefighter, so my reads were based on that

.

[Don Draper x Mistress]

No both of you are making really good points and it’s extremely clear that Scrrdbear was doused or the game would probably be over.

So Auro did think Ircher was arso initially. Town!Ircher doesn’t just decide to run someone up for pretty much no reason.

[Aisa]

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