Newbie 655: Zeroville. (Game Over!)

[Erg0]

Vote Count

Syphen 2 (JonMW, somedamnkid)
The Pope's Tiara 2 (WhereIsTony, Syphen)
JonMW 1 (M4yhem)
No Lynch 1 (The Pope's Tiara)

Not Voting 3 (Yuu, MichelSableheart, J_Slr)

9 alive, 5 to lynch.

[somedamnkid]

It's true that all we ave are accusations and we're not very far into the game yet; however, what we can do is look at each others posts and try to ascertain a profile of their styles of play. what I found was that you have posted around the same time once per day, the content of your posts is also lacking anything substantial. This makes me think that you are either hiding something or are only checking the game once per day.

On an unrelated note: how is the 2008 Ninja? I was looking at it the last time the motorcycle show came to town but it didn't seem like it would be comfortable to ride for more than 20mins.

[JonMW]

Jon- If you're town, stop thinking about what I will think and follow your instincts.

Why do you suspect Pope's? What did you think of the post which was the reason I unvoted him?

I think that that post seemed very open and self-critical. However, I can't forget some of the earlier tactics he used in an attempt to dispel the suspicion that he attracted even then. Perhaps they are explainable by his simply being a nervous newbie, unaware of what statements will earn him the wrong kind of attention, but it still all rubs me the wrong way.

I'll let my suspicions move away from him for now, but I definitely won't forget.

[The Pope's Tiara]

After carefully reviewing this thread I have come to a conclusion on a possible mafia.

Unvote, Vote:Syphen

I could write a detailed explination, but it would just be an echo of what has already been said.

[MichelSableheart]

But wasn't the other person's argument that by not lynching the mafia will kill a townie, thus making it harder for the townies to get enough votes to successfully carry out lynches against the mafia (seeing as how they would work together)?

Maybe it's just a difference of opinion that I'm caught in the middle of, but the two schools of thoughts on why we need to lynch seem rather contradictory to me.

No, that wasn't my argument. My argument was about the number of lynches we have. Each lynch is a chance to hit mafia. If we lynch today, we can lynch a total of two times before we are in lynch or lose (Lylo for short). If we don't lynch today, we only have a single lynch before we are in Lylo.

Michel, what do you think of Jon?

Why should I focus on Jon in particular? I think evaluating all players will give even more info. Note that these are still based on info from the early game, and therefore far from final.

• JonMW - He posts relatively often. However, especially in his early posts, he seemed to base his votes on feelings, which he simply didn't argue about. To remove his first serious vote based solely on a bit of pressure from M4yhem seems strange. His attack on Syphen was better thought out. To summarize, possible scum, but no strong feelings.
  
• J_Slr - Active, participating, contributing. Town for now. On a completely unrelated note: I really dislike that avatar.
  
• M4yhem - Active, and a good IC. Hasn't given incorrect advice yet, nor has he been pushing on wrong reasons. Took on a leader role, but that isn't a bad thing. Town fibe for now.
  
• MichelSableheart - I won't vote for MichelSableheart at any point during this game. But my opinion on him isn't really relevant, you'll be the ones judging him.
  
• somedamnkid - I like the posts he made. They seem well thought out, and there are some good observations there. He didn't post a lot, but what he did makes me believe he's town.
  
• Syphen - Few posts when compared to the other players, and his posts don't have a lot of content either. The lurker accusations seem justified, but he does seem to try to contribute, and there is still time for him to improve.
  
• The Pope's Tiara - TPT gives me extreme newbie vibes. Speculating on a cop, attacking the inactive, arguing in favour of a random lynch, arguing in favour of a no lynch... His behaviour favours scum, but they are all mistakes a newbie is likely to make. However, he did know the term Chainsaw defense (though not it's meaning) indicating that he possibly has more experience then he shows. There are reasons for suspicion here.
  
• WhereIsTony - Very little content for the number of posts he made. He posts a lot of one-liners and QFT's. I would say that he is in fact more guilty of lurking then Syphen.
  
• Yuu - Seems to keep a bit of a low profile, but he participates, scumhunts and is saying sensible things. No strong read either way.

Vote: WhereIsTony

[J_Slr]

• J_Slr - Active, participating, contributing. Town for now. On a completely unrelated note: I really dislike that avatar.

On the same unrelated note: If anyone else has an issue with my Avatar, I will change it.

Michel makes a good point about Tony and Syphen.

Although I would not say Tony is lurking, more staying below the radar.

I still like Syphen as a lurker, but lurking is no guarantee of being scum.

So

Vote: WhereIsTony

WhereIsTony a little more content on your behalf would be nice.

[WhereIsTony]

I did not realzie I was not posting enough content

I thought my answer to the only question posed to me was adequate

So I will follow another posters lead

JonMW - If there were three scum he would be my third suspect but there are only two so while I am thinking town he is the most scummy of the likely town

J_Slr - I Like the avatar and I dont get a scummy reading from him (Yet)

M4yhem - Very active but he is an IC so that is probably normal. MMy opinion of him flips with every post

MichelSableheart -seems knowledgable and of all the players I have the least feeling one way or another

somedamnkid - Excellent posts, I believe he is town for now

Syphen - when he said Vanilla Townie I heard Scum, to me that is the claim Everyone silently maskes so why voice it?

The Pope's Tiara - Pope has had my vote all game, while Syphen is also giving me pause I think the cop role claim is a scummy thing

Yuu - I get a newbie townie vibe, maybe vanilla maybe not


So I will hold my pope vote but definitely get scummy vibes from Syphen and Jon

[WhereIsTony]

Please feel free to ask question?

[Yuu]

Evaluating all players is looking pretty much important. It seems a good way to put some order on your thoughts.


WhereIsTony - I didn't notice him before, really. I knew he posted because of I saw his avatar floating around, but now I went back to check and noticed the majority os his posts were one line or so. I agree with Michel that this action looks more suspicious than Syphen right now, yet, I can't guess his character. It's only the beginning of the game, though. If he continues on like that, I'll bet scum.

J_Sir - He participates a lot and points out important things. For now, I believe in town also.

MichelSableHeart and M4yhem - My feeling about both of them is the same, both are very good and helpful ICs. Both look town for me.

Syphen - Posts right after being point out that his actions are scummy, and the only information brought by his posts is that he likes motorcicles. My thoughts on him are the same I have on Tony. Looks scummy, but it's not a strong feeling.

The Pope's Tiara - He cleared himself of some suspicion when he decided to explain a bit more of his actions, but still, I can't forget his previous words (mainly because this is a forum and everytime I check the previous posts his cop excuse glares at me).

Somedamnkid - I haven't seen much of him, but I already like his posts. Townie, for now.

JonMW - Hurried to place a third vote for Pope before letting him explain his actions, changed his vote just because there was some suspicion on him, and as soon as people started to get onto him he pointed out Syphen (Can't help but think he was trying to divert attention).

Vote: JonMW

[WhereIsTony]

I owuld like to Re-iterate my willingness to answer questions

@ pope

Why were you nervous

@ Yuu
Do you worry that IC's being helpful is making them seem more pro town to you than they may be.

@ J-slr

what sort of content?
My content may have dropped off because my suspicion of Pope has not been
abated much, I am not certain he is Scum but gun-to-my-head he is the one i would pick.


Finally

@ pope

you said Syphen after careful considerateion looking at the thread but did not elaborate. That re-enforced my belief you are Scum

[J_Slr]

I owuld like to Re-iterate my willingness to answer questions

@ pope

Why were you nervous

@ Yuu
Do you worry that IC's being helpful is making them seem more pro town to you than they may be.

@ J-slr

what sort of content?
My content may have dropped off because my suspicion of Pope has not been
abated much, I am not certain he is Scum but gun-to-my-head he is the one i would pick.


Finally

@ pope

you said Syphen after careful considerateion looking at the thread but did not elaborate. That re-enforced my belief you are Scum

This is a very nice reaction. As for content, to be honest I think we can all see you are firmly latched onto Pope's Tiara and I am going to look in that direction now, but I was wondering who else caught your attention?

Also, most of your content filled posts have been reactions and nothing more, it seems to me that unless we put pressure on you, you say very little.

[The Pope's Tiara]

I owuld like to Re-iterate my willingness to answer questions

@ pope

Why were you nervous

@ pope

you said Syphen after careful considerateion looking at the thread but did not elaborate. That re-enforced my belief you are Scum

1: I thought if I just agreed with you guys that my actions appeared to be from newbieness and nerves that there would be less pressure on me and the focus would move else where. And it did.

2: I said that he looked like scum for reasons already stated, some even being directly above that post. Do you really need me to type up why I think that way? Or, if your heart is set on it, just say so and I will copy-paste it from others. I didn't want to post a long, redundant message.

HoS: WhereIsTony

You seem really shifty and are always trying to sway the focus to different things. The consistently capricious behavior you display makes me really suspicious of you. If I could vote for two people, I would. But I can't, so I'm Hand of Suspicioning you.

[M4yhem]

I do not think an experienced player would jump into such an active role and become a target so easily, although it may just be that he is a very vociferous person. At this time I'd say scum.

Do you think taking an active role means I'm more likely to be lynched? Do you think scum are more likely to put themselves in the spotlight or less likely?

My explanation would be that I take an active role because I enjoy it. Pretty much any game I play in, in whatever role, I will try to lead not follow. I guess I'm a little bossy and opinionated.

Syphen- What makes you think that nervousness equals scum? Especially since this is many people's first game, I find that a little dodgy.

Pope's- Even if you are echoing what is said, I'd still like to hear your reasons in your own words.

A list, since it's all the rage:

Yuu- Now that she's started posting, I like her posts. Mostly they seem reasonable and I get the feeling she's trying her best. Likely town.

Somedamnkid- Same as Yuu really. So far I agree with most of his posts and when I don't agree, I think he's wrong for honest reasons.

Michel- Good analysis so far. Nothing I can find fault with.

J_Slr- Seems like he's using his own initiative to look for scum. Mostly sensible, maybe a little catious. Probably town.

WhereisTony- I really don't know either way. What he has said I've had no reason to disagree with. On the other hand, he hasn't said much...although that's changing now.

(Also, the bear freaks me out)

Where is Tony- Your number one suspect seems to be voting for your number two suspect. How do you explain that?
Would you like us all to vote for Pope's tiara too? If so, why aren't you making any effort to convince us he's scum?

Syphen- I wasn't all that crazy about his defence. I agree that the quick townie claim is suspicious. I'd like to hear a lot more from him
(A list, some analysis) but I'm think he's a real possibility.

The Pope's Tiara- I'm still not happy with his reaction under pressure. He suggested he might be a cop, suggested we lynch a lurker to avoid upsetting the active players then voted no lynch for no good reason.
I really don't know what to think about this- it's all quite scummy.
On the other hand, he is a newbie. Possible scum here too.

Then there's Jon. If Pope is a townie who has just messed up, Jon looked a lot like scum taking advantage of him when he placed that quick third vote. His reaction under pressure was also scummy- he back down as soon as I turned my attention on him. He seems to think pleasing me is more important than scumhunting. I still think my vote is well placed here, although it's still early and he has a chance to redeem himself.

However, I can't forget some of the earlier tactics he used in an attempt to dispel the suspicion that he attracted even then. Perhaps they are explainable by his simply being a nervous newbie, unaware of what statements will earn him the wrong kind of attention, but it still all rubs me the wrong way.

You realise that you and him acted quite similarally under pressure?
Both changed your vote, both went for lurkers, both voted no lynch. What do you make of that?

[WhereIsTony]

I owuld like to Re-iterate my willingness to answer questions

@ pope

Why were you nervous

@ Yuu
Do you worry that IC's being helpful is making them seem more pro town to you than they may be.

@ J-slr

what sort of content?
My content may have dropped off because my suspicion of Pope has not been
abated much, I am not certain he is Scum but gun-to-my-head he is the one i would pick.


Finally

@ pope

you said Syphen after careful considerateion looking at the thread but did not elaborate. That re-enforced my belief you are Scum

This is a very nice reaction. As for content, to be honest I think we can all see you are firmly latched onto Pope's Tiara and I am going to look in that direction now, but I was wondering who else caught your attention?

Also, most of your content filled posts have been reactions and nothing more, it seems to me that unless we put pressure on you, you say very little.

well that a double-bind I mean if I post I am reactionary If I don't I am lurking

as i said in an earlier post Syphen would be my #2 pick and jon my #3

[WhereIsTony]

WhereisTony- I really don't know either way. What he has said I've had no reason to disagree with. On the other hand, he hasn't said much...although that's changing now.

(Also, the bear freaks me out)

Where is Tony- Your number one suspect seems to be voting for your number two suspect. How do you explain that?
Would you like us all to vote for Pope's tiara too? If so, why aren't you making any effort to convince us he's scum?

t?

1. That could be game-playing but is most likely i am wrong about one of them. Nothing is 100% at this stage.

If I was equally confident in both I would feel ok switiching votes...I don't

2. I would like you all too vote for him if you suspect him, but i think it is early for him in fact if he had too many vote i would unvote until i was surer.


Right now my vote is just an indicator of my suspicion based on the fact that he claimed cop, and he gave a vague "upon further consideration" vote which could mean. "I am going to vote for my partner but i don't want him lynched so i won't give other a reason.

Like i said i am not 100% convinced but I feel not voting is rolling over.

[WhereIsTony]

WhereisTony- I really don't know either way. What he has said I've had no reason to disagree with. On the other hand, he hasn't said much...although that's changing now.

(Also, the bear freaks me out)

Where is Tony- Your number one suspect seems to be voting for your number two suspect. How do you explain that?
Would you like us all to vote for Pope's tiara too? If so, why aren't you making any effort to convince us he's scum?

t?

1. That could be game-playing but is most likely i am wrong about one of them. Nothing is 100% at this stage.

If I was equally confident in both I would feel ok switiching votes...I don't

2. I would like you all too vote for him if you suspect him, but i think it is early for him in fact if he had too many vote i would unvote until i was surer.


Right now my vote is just an indicator of my suspicion based on the fact that he claimed cop, and he gave a vague "upon further consideration" vote which could mean. "I am going to vote for my partner but i don't want him lynched so i won't give other a reason.

Like i said i am not 100% convinced but I feel not voting is rolling over.

my grammar after two is very bad.

2. I would like you all too vote for him if you suspect him, but i think it is early for him to be lynched; in fact if he had too many vote i would unvote until i was surer.

[Yuu]

@ Yuu
Do you worry that IC's being helpful is making them seem more pro town to you than they may be.

When you say that, I assume you thought that by 'helpful' I meant the guidance they offer us inexperienced players, but it's not that, I meant they really look like helping town. By inquiring people further, and suggesting lots of things we wouldn't have thought about (aka making us talk), they are preventing us to make misjudgements and avoid a rushed lynch - or at least it's the way it seems to me. For example, M4yhem posed us questions, and Michel got us evaluating everyone. I think that it helped us not only to develop the game, but to get to know everybody a little better. [/quote]

[somedamnkid]

unvote

Vote WhereisTony

I realize I'm casting the apparently cursed third (and bandwagon voting) vote so let me explain my reasoning:

On the first page, He drew some suspicion when he immediately "random voted" The Pope's Tiara and when things started heating up against Pope's Tiara he did nothing to secure his suspicions other than saying "I am pretty secure in my vote right now." While a random vote in itself is not suspicious it is somewhat suspicious that he would do nothing to further confirm his vote and left that up to others. Then when the initial votes against him were replaced he did not post anything meaningful on page 3 even though the person who had his vote was being heavily interrogated. In addition even after being practically handed accusation reasons on a silver platter all he wrote was "Other than Pope seeming Scummy to me initially no one has really screamed pro-town." Now that he has attracted 2 votes and a "Hand of Suspicion" he is posting a lot and the only things his posts tell me are that he is protecting The Pope's Tiara.

and now my reasons for thinking he is protecting The Pope's Tiara:
As stated above his early accusations lacked any real substance, and when it seemed the The Pope's Tiara was likely to be lynched he tried to clear himself of suspicion by half-assedly throwing The Pope's Tiara under the buss with the post "I am pretty secure in my vote right now." But I had chalked this up to beginners mistakes; However, now he has defended The Pope's Tiara a second time saying "I would like you all too vote for him if you suspect him, but i think it is early for him to be lynched." This seems to be another attempt to make people second guess themselves over voting for The Pope's Tiara. If WhereisTony was a townie i would expect him to be more resolute in his opinions and actions. What he has done, however, is first appear hesitant to lynch someone he voted for then when it appears as if that person will be lynched suddenly become resolute on the issue, and now that other people are being targeted he has gone back to hesitancy despite evidence moving in the other direction.

As a side note I believe that protecting someone this early in the game is a surefire scumsign. Everyone's posts say that they aren't sure who they can trust and everybody is under some suspicion. As we have no masons the only people who know who is town and otherwise are the mafia members so protecting anybody implies mafia knowledge.

[JonMW]

You realise that you and him acted quite similarally under pressure?
Both changed your vote, both went for lurkers, both voted no lynch. What do you make of that?

As I iterated before, I changed my vote under pressure because I thought that that was how we were supposed to play, even as Vanilla Townies. Or are you trying to ignore what I said?
We did not both "go for lurkers"... he wanted to vote out someone who had not posted at all. I wanted to vote for someone who was starving us of information. There's a difference, and well you know it.
Voting No Lynch... He did it entirely for dramatic reasons, as he said before. Don't you remember how he put on the resigned martyr act? I voted No Lynch purely as a placeholder until I could identify a new suspicious player and vote for them.

If you want to play the Inquisitor so badly, then I'll tell you what put me over the edge on him. I'm sure you remember what that was, because you were there. You reacted to it specifically. Even WhereIsTony can recall:

Right now my vote is just an indicator of my suspicion based on the fact that he claimed cop

And you spell it "similarly".

[somedamnkid]

Jon, a post like this does very little to clear you of any suspicion. Michel mentioned in his analysis that you argue with feelings and this is a very good example of that. The only thing this post tells me is that you are getting very flustered and defensive over only 1 vote, when it's 5 to lynch. You need to use more calm, thought driven arguments because otherwise all you will do is draw suspicion onto yourself.

[somedamnkid]

NINJA EDIT: it's 2 votes

[JonMW]

And seriously, what the hell is with people coming back to the third vote that I placed on Pope? Let's take another look at how this all played out, from the top until the third post and maybe a little bit after.

WhereIsTony votes for The Pope's Tiara. No reason.
I vote for WhereIsTony. I didn't really have any good reason for this at all, I admit. Back then, it was all so offhanded and based on so little. I was putting attention on him. Again, this is because I used to play Cry Wolf - it was all very back-stabbing, mob-mentality gameplay. Very little thinking went on at all - because the games (played in a chat window rather than a forum) were so short, there was no time for long-term strategy. All you could hope for was to hope that the actual Wolves would choke, and behave in an unusual fashion - either not talking, or talking too much, pointing too many fingers.
Tiara votes for Tony, seemingly in retaliation. Pope now claims that his accusaion of Tony at this point was mostly sarcastic.
M4yhem votes for Tiara, claiming that this is motivated by the "random voting" stage in the game. Take note that Michel - who may have more or less experience than M4yhem (wiki turned up nothing on him) - disagrees with him on this point. Perhaps M4yhem was lying to us? Perhaps Michel was. MAybe one of them is simply wrong, or maybe one of them is taking advantage on us being newbies - we do not know how the game is played.
Syphen puts a third vote on Tony. He claims that this was random, and I do not believe him.
Tony posts a little disclaimer - he admits that he has no concrete evidence on Pope.
M4yhem - in a single-line post - asks Pope to defend himself, or at least respond.
Pope responds by hinting that he might be cop. He tries to get others to vote for hohum.
M4yhem points out the flaws in Pope's reasoning.
Pope claims at this point that he tried to divert attention onto hohum simply to survive another day. Possibly, he believes that a non-playing player would be easier to lynch, since they cannot defend themselves. His actual reasoning isn't very clear, however. He seemed desperate to grab at any argument that would take votes away from himself.
I admit that I do the same thing. I still feel that personal survival should be a motivating factor for every player, not merely an extention of the belief that the town should not waste a single lynch. If one allows the town to lynch oneself, then they have allowed the town to waste a day and are not trying to win.
Even after Pope's (meager) defense, Tony simply declares the he is not moving his vote. He rejects Pope's defense.
This is the crucial point. I declared, even then, that my initial vote on Tony was based on practically nothing. I should have used the FoS or maybe the HoS on Tony, and saved my vote for later. I felt that Pope has attempted to defend his own vote with some very shaky logic - so shaky, in fact, that it worsened my opinion of him. This changed my opinion of the "most suspicious" citizen. So I voted for Pope.
Michel follows suit - he points out the flaws in Pope's reasoning. Really, he's just riding on M4yhem's coat-tails.
Even Yuu takes note that Pope's acting a bit suss.
Pope puts on the Martyr act. He votes No Lynch.
J_Slr tries to comfort Pope, reassuring him.
M4yhem

NOW

asks pope to supply more information. He gives Pope another go at defending himself.
Pope makes his second "defense" - really, he just answers M4yhem's questions.
M4yhem drops the attack on Pope, and votes for me.

Now, here's what I've seen of the situation.
This is what really happened:
Pope acts suspiciously. He collects two votes.
Pope attempts to defend himself. This defense goes very badly.
I vote for Pope, because of his shaky (and I believe, unsubstantiated and false) argument.
M4yhem now asks Pope to defend himself a

second

time.
Pope answers the questions.
M4yhem turns onto me. This seems to be the point where I started to stand out more prominently to other players.

However, this is what others seem to think happened:
Pope acts suspiciously.
Pope is asked to defend himself.
I vote for pope.
Pope defends himself.
Suspicion moves onto me.

Frankly, I feel that the mafia - or perhaps just well-meaning Townies - have muddled the facts and attempted to build an argument against me based on events that

never happened

.

[JonMW]

Jon, a post like this does very little to clear you of any suspicion. Michel mentioned in his analysis that you argue with feelings and this is a very good example of that. The only thing this post tells me is that you are getting very flustered and defensive over only 1 vote, when it's 5 to lynch. You need to use more calm, thought driven arguments because otherwise all you will do is draw suspicion onto yourself.

I'm prefectly capable of using logic. However, I do not feel that there is any amount of logic that can lead a person to correctly, reliably, allow a vanilla townie to distinguish the mafia from his friends during Day 1. We're all (excepting the mafia, obviously) in the same boat here - we must try to assemble coherent attacks on other players based upon what they say, what they do, how they assemble their arguments, and how they defend themselves. The crucial point is that nobody wants to identify themselves clearly either way, so there is going to be little or no usable information that can be gleaned from the posts on Day 1.
Nobody wants to clearly identify themselves wither way - someone who appears to be mafia is going to be lynched. Someone who is accepted as a townie is sure to be NKed, because they increases the chance that a townie will be lynched on all following days.

[WhereIsTony]

I am not going to defend myself, because I think the best method of that is too try to out Scum

POpe

#24 claimed random voting was scummy and vote for me as a reaction to being voted

#43 Cliamed his reaction to Random voting was ironic and I did not get it.

#46 claims to be cop, Votes hohum, which in of itself is not suspicious but advocates everyone lynch Hohum

#48 says the real reason he voted hohum was that "he wasnt him"

#50 claims first game jitters, in a game full of first timers

-- at this point I felt secure in my vote and said so

#58 Gives a "if I was mafia it would not behoove me tell you, and then votes for no lynching"

#64 Claims his initial vote for me was random, and that he was being ironic when he voted for me for a random vote, which just happened to be fore him

#103 claims to have carefully reviewed the thread and found reason to vote for syphen ((who coincidently had just voted for pope) does not give any indication of what she had found

#111 I point out some of my reason I suspect pope in question and ask a few, calls me shifty and changes vote back to me.
Most suspiciously when I call him out on not giving a reason for voting for syphen he says for the reasons already stated

(Incidentally what does HoS mean.)


These are my reasons for suspecting Pope IF you think they are good reasons vote for him

If not I would like to hear why, that way I may be convinced I am suspecting the wrong guy.

again I am not 100% sure he is scum (who could be) but he is defintiely the most likely candidate.

[WhereIsTony]

EDit When I say I am not going to defend myself, what I mean is I am not going to give reasons I am not Scum, but rather focus on who i think is.

The reason for this is the only way I can at this point argue for not being scum is to claim that I am town, which is in no way convincing as all 9 of us are claiming town