Newbie 655: Zeroville. (Game Over!)

[JonMW]

Maybe it is early, but I have to act on someone... I don't want to risk this day going by without a lynch.

In any case, I changed my avatar to reflect my feelings on having attracted two votes.

[WhereIsTony]

I personally think it's still a bit early to call Syphen an active lurker. The game hasn't been going for that long.

The Pope's Tiara, there is a serious flaw in your plan to no lynch in order to get information. Assume for a moment we have no power roles whatsoever (which has, ignoring information players have gotten from their rolepm, a 25 % chance of happening). Not lynching in that case will allow the mafia to kill a player, leaving eight players alive. If there are lynches and nightkills each day and night after that, we must hit mafia in either of our next two lynches, or there will be two townies vs two mafiosi, resulting in a mafia win. Right now, if there are no powerroles, we have 3 chances to hit a mafiamember before we have lost. No lynching in that scenario would simply cost us an attempt to lynch mafia. And even if we do have powerroles, the situation isn't much better. A doctor is unlikely to receive information (the chance of a succesful protect is pretty low), and a cop may be nightkilled or have his target nightkilled. And if we have both a cop and doctor, the cop may be blocked too. Basically, if we vote no lynch, we give up a lynch for too little gain.

I agree with this

[M4yhem]

M4yhem, if voting for this (extremely suspicious, in my opinion) character will only get your vote pointed at me, then I'll change it.

That's an interesting reaction, Jon. Is not being voted for more important to you than finding mafia? Have you considered the possibility that I might be mafia who, having staged an arguement with my buddy Pope's, have now decided to chase you away? And what if I say I don't like your syphen vote, will you change that too?

I find it slightly troubling that you change your convictions depending on what I think.

Yuu- you have my reasons mostly right. Once Pope's started looking a little more town in my eyes, I start to wonder about the people voting him. Jon's vote stood out as lacking reasoning and so I feel exploring him would be a good idea.

lol@ your avatar, Jon.

I'm going to have to third what Michel said about no-lynch. No-lynch is bad and to be avoided at all costs.

Welcome to somedamnkid (rofl).

[The Pope's Tiara]

I personally think it's still a bit early to call Syphen an active lurker. The game hasn't been going for that long.

The Pope's Tiara, there is a serious flaw in your plan to no lynch in order to get information. Assume for a moment we have no power roles whatsoever (which has, ignoring information players have gotten from their rolepm, a 25 % chance of happening). Not lynching in that case will allow the mafia to kill a player, leaving eight players alive. If there are lynches and nightkills each day and night after that, we must hit mafia in either of our next two lynches, or there will be two townies vs two mafiosi, resulting in a mafia win. Right now, if there are no powerroles, we have 3 chances to hit a mafiamember before we have lost. No lynching in that scenario would simply cost us an attempt to lynch mafia. And even if we do have powerroles, the situation isn't much better. A doctor is unlikely to receive information (the chance of a succesful protect is pretty low), and a cop may be nightkilled or have his target nightkilled. And if we have both a cop and doctor, the cop may be blocked too. Basically, if we vote no lynch, we give up a lynch for too little gain.

I said that at the present time I couldn't make an educated guess as to who the mafia was. Instead of just unvoting, I voted to not lynch. I assure you that this was for entirely dramatic purposes.

Using your argument, by making a guess vote we would only catalyze the endgame where we lose. So it would make more sense to jump on bandwagon votes of any person in this thread to help the mafia win.

Are you trying to suggest we hurry up and vote because you're scum?

[The Pope's Tiara]

I mean, shouldn't we only lynch if we absolutely know that the person we're lynching is mafia? With so few players a bad lynch makes it that much easier for us to lose.

[M4yhem]

A bad lynch also gives us information. By looking at who voted for the dead townie, when and how, we get evidence we can use against the mafia.

No lynch doesn't give us this evidence.

We will never absolutely know anyone is mafia today but that doesn't mean we can't make an educated guess.

And it lets the mafia make the first move, with thier nightkill

Also, no-lynch is boring. Where's the blood and screaming?

[Yuu]

Also, lynching someone today raises the chances of finding mafia next, statistically, no? With no lynch today, next day, we have 8 people left, but if someone is killed today, it's 7 people. And what is easier, finding scum between more people, or less?

[J_Slr]

In theory it is easier to find scum against less people, however the problem with this is that unless you hit scum you are helping the scum.

While I agree no lynch should not be an option, I also think we need to consider carefully who we vote for.

Also welcome somedamnkid!

P.s. Still waiting on Syphen to say something.

[The Pope's Tiara]

But wasn't the other person's argument that by not lynching the mafia will kill a townie, thus making it harder for the townies to get enough votes to successfully carry out lynches against the mafia (seeing as how they would work together)?

Maybe it's just a difference of opinion that I'm caught in the middle of, but the two schools of thoughts on why we need to lynch seem rather contradictory to me.

[WhereIsTony]

A lynch is the only tool to stop the mafia. no lynch gives them a free day.

[J_Slr]

But wasn't the other person's argument that by not lynching the mafia will kill a townie, thus making it harder for the townies to get enough votes to successfully carry out lynches against the mafia (seeing as how they would work together)?

Maybe it's just a difference of opinion that I'm caught in the middle of, but the two schools of thoughts on why we need to lynch seem rather contradictory to me.

A lynch is the only tool to stop the mafia. no lynch gives them a free day.

@Pope's Tiara: Tony is right, no lynch is a bad thing, but rushing a lynch is also a bad thing.

When you lynch someone there is always the possibility that you are lynching a townie, but as M4yhem said earlier, you might learn from lynching a townie.

Scum will jump at an opportunity to lynch a townie, so if we do get a townie you should look to see why the townie was lynched and who did the voting.

Look for those that jumped quickly or suddenly onto an accusation. These are possible scum tells, they will not always work, but they might help. (Oh and if the ICs think I am off my rocker, please say so.)

All in all, imo, its better to lynch than not and as long you are sure of why you are voting for someone and can explain to others why, then you are doing the right thing. To my mind anyway.
Just do not expect to be believed right away, what may seem obvious to you is not necessarily obvious to everyone else.

[Syphen]

But wasn't the other person's argument that by not lynching the mafia will kill a townie, thus making it harder for the townies to get enough votes to successfully carry out lynches against the mafia (seeing as how they would work together)?

Maybe it's just a difference of opinion that I'm caught in the middle of, but the two schools of thoughts on why we need to lynch seem rather contradictory to me.

A lynch is the only tool to stop the mafia. no lynch gives them a free day.

@Pope's Tiara: Tony is right, no lynch is a bad thing, but rushing a lynch is also a bad thing.

I'm around. Don't live on a computer. Besides, its summer. Motorcycles and sailing are the priorities.

With that being said, on a first day, I based my vote in a totally random manor. I find that there hasn't been any discussion or information going around yet to substantiate anything but a random lynch. If the lynch is wrong, then you know who it is not. They are dead. If the lynch is right, then woot!! 1 down. I find watching people's reactions post-lynch regardless of a right/wrong to be much more informative then day 1 finger pointing and pointless banter.

I don't agree with people's theory that a low-poster / "lurker" as you say is an instant HIT for mafia. Infact, if that is the common thought process.. would a good mafia trying to avoid detection try to post as much as possible?

Sounds like a case of "damned if you do, damned if don't."

I dunno what to say beyond that other then: vanilla townie!

[JonMW]

M4yhem, about my survival: I feel that this is how we are supposed to play. In a way, this game is a kind of semi-roleplay. Although each member cares about their side, I do not think it is expected of us to (willingly, completely) throw away our own safety in the search for the mafia unless it is absolutely required.

More to come later, maybe. I think I've jumped boats too often over the past few days.

[M4yhem]

Jon, I would say as an IC that if you are town, finding mafia is your top priority. Survival is just a nice bonus. That doesn't mean you shouldn't fight back if someone votes for you unfairly- you should, as hard as you can.

What it does mean is that if you think you've found mafia, no amount of pressure on you should make you back down from your convictions.

For mafia on the other hand, their survival is their top concern. For this reason, if they come under pressure for attacking someone they are more likely to back away. Which is why I'll be keeping my vote on you at this point.

[JonMW]

OK, I understand the strategy of keeping your vote on me now, and I can't blame you for that. I guess that I have been jumping quickly from accusation to accusation - that's just because each time I've looked back over the thread, or someone has changed (or communicated) their stance on a certain topic, my personal opinion of who has acted "most strangely" has altered each time.
I keep on second-guessing because I have nothing concrete at this point. I don't think that any of us will have much useful information at all by the time that someone is lynched. As far as I can tell, useful information begins tomorrow (or tonight, in the case of a cop's investigation, which is possible).
I'm not saying that we're not getting ANY information today, but we won't be able to make much use of it until tomorrow comes.

But now, you've put me in a difficult position.

Why did you allow Pope to buy your trust so easily in one go? He answers all your little questions and you roll over for him, turning on anyone that voted for him in the first place.

My vote will stay on Syphen until I've looked over things again. I'm still not sure that I believe him. He claims that his vote was "random" but I feel that my most-likely-to-be-lynched theory still holds.

[JonMW]

I looked over the thread again, but I don't feel that I learned much.
M4yhem, you are an exceedingly cagey player. I feel that you're playing chess and I'm playing whack-a-mole (to borrow the comparison from Achewood).

[J_Slr]

I'm around. Don't live on a computer. Besides, its summer. Motorcycles and sailing are the priorities.

With that being said, on a first day, I based my vote in a totally random manor. I find that there hasn't been any discussion or information going around yet to substantiate anything but a random lynch. If the lynch is wrong, then you know who it is not. They are dead. If the lynch is right, then woot!! 1 down. I find watching people's reactions post-lynch regardless of a right/wrong to be much more informative then day 1 finger pointing and pointless banter.

I don't agree with people's theory that a low-poster / "lurker" as you say is an instant HIT for mafia. Infact, if that is the common thought process.. would a good mafia trying to avoid detection try to post as much as possible?

Sounds like a case of "damned if you do, damned if don't."

I dunno what to say beyond that other then: vanilla townie!

Well its good to know you are around. (As it is Winter here, I am online quite often)

As for lurkers, I hope I did not say that lurkers were automatically mafia.

My problem with lurkers is that they give away very little information and this makes trusting them a tad bit difficult. Addmitedly its up to you how you play, but a townie who lurks and adds little to the game is more of a help to scum than the town.

Also as far posters go, you need to look at content of posts, anyone could post hundreds of times and say nothing. Or reiterate what others have said.

Also Syphen, you said that you voted randomly, why tony though, he had 2 votes already, or did you just fail to read the thread before that?

[M4yhem]

But now, you've put me in a difficult position.

Why did you allow Pope to buy your trust so easily in one go? He answers all your little questions and you roll over for him, turning on anyone that voted for him in the first place.

I wouldn't say you were in that difficult a position. You are a suspect, yes, but many other people are also suspects and at this point my vote is far from final. What is it you said earlier?

The innocent have nothing to fear

.
If you believe that and you are innocent, you'll find a way to show that in time.

I can't help but feel you are misrepresenting me a little. Pope does not have my trust. Until they are dead and proved town, noone has my trust except Erg0. My vote may be on you but my eyes are on everyone.

And I'm not 'turning' on

anyone

who voted for him. Just you, so far.

Random questions to get people talking:

Somedamnkid, what do you think of Syphen's latest post?
Michel, what do you think of Jon?
Yuu- do you think Pope's is mafia? Why/why not?
ThisisTony- If you had to pick out one person as town, aside from you, who would it be and why?

[WhereIsTony]

ThisisTony- If you had to pick out one person as town, aside from you, who would it be and why?

Well me obviously.

Other than Pope seeming Scummy to me initially no one has really screamed pro-town.

"Syphen" claiming "vanilla" townie seems a bit scummy to me as well.

but neither are confirmed in my mind.

I would say Yuu seems the most likely to be town, by the hesitancy of his posts, but that is a week indicator at best.

(I just think his scum partner would "coach" him better.)

[Yuu]

Pope's actions look a bit contradictory for me. He jumped at Hohum - one who wasn't able to deffend himself because he just wasn't here - but never said one thing about Syphen, who, at that point, had shown up only to vote one people off. By Pope's logic, he was voting Hohum because he wasn't active, but the only activity Syphen showed was voting someone. Yeah, better than not showing in the game at all, but if the activity or lack of it was such a concern for you, Pope, enough reason to lynch someone, why not even mentioning Syphen? Is he a buddy of yours?

[JonMW]

I wouldn't say you were in that difficult a position.

I misspoke... I do believe that I am in a difficult position, but it's partially my fault (of course).
I suspect Pope rather strongly, but jumping my vote back to him at this stage - while we have still not received any further answer from Syphen - seems like I'm just pandering to get you to take your vote off me.

[M4yhem]

Jon- If you're town, stop thinking about what I will think and follow your instincts.

Why do you suspect Pope's? What did you think of the post which was the reason I unvoted him?

[somedamnkid]

Syphen's latest post show that he is a calculating lurker, He first posted with a random vote, then did not post for a few days, and now that he has been called-out on being a lurker he posts an excuse. I do not believe he will ever post until it becomes necessary to avoid suspicion. (Of course, i recognize I'm doing the exact same thing in your eyes) at the moment i'd peg him as Scum.

Of the other less active members I'd say that Yuu is unlikely to be purposefully withholding information as she has posted unnecessarily several times and is probibly just shy/inexperienced. At the moment she appears to be vanilla townie.

Michel is does not appear to be hiding anything, but because he is an IC we cannot trust anything he does. The posts he does make seem to be very logical, and number driven, he seems to be the type of player who calculates everything he writes so as not to release too much information. A the moment I'd say scum/power-role.

On the opposite end of the spectrum is M4yhem. He almost immediately jumped into the role of "Townie Team Leader" and already has at least one person second guessing themselves over his approval. I do not think an experienced player would jump into such an active role and become a target so easily, although it may just be that he is a very vociferous person. At this time I'd say scum.

[somedamnkid]

Unvote

Because of the reasons I stated above I think Syphen is scum, If he is not scum he is not an active player and won't contribute much to the game. I think it would be better to nip this problem in the bud.

Vote: Syphen

[Syphen]

How can you say that I wouldn't an active player? we haven't really got into it much. I don't consider day 1 pre-lynch to be in the midst of a game. It is pure accusations at this point. Noone has really had a chance to do anything.

I'm not a calculating lurker. Just haven't had anything to say of value yet.

My original vote was mostly random and was just a starting point.

unvote: Whereistony

Vote: The Popes Tiara

After reading things, I know he/she is new, but to admit nervousness screams scum to me.