Open 899 - The Pizza Kids Coalition [Game Over]

[Klick]

k

[DragonEater70]

I kinda want to just vote implosion here tbh

[Klick]

I'm not voting for implosion today

[DragonEater70]

Didn't you say you were find with missing today

[DragonEater70]

Can you give me an ordered list of who you think is town or scum

[DragonEater70]

VOTE: implosion

Let's see

[Klick]

Being fine with missing today doesn't mean eliminating outside the coalition lol

[Klick]

Can you give me an ordered list of who you think is town or scum

Not one that would really mean anything at this junction

[DragonEater70]

Still I would like something

[T3]

the thing im wrestling with is that part of me thinks it wouldn't really be that bad if i do get flipped today

bc like i currently am mostly seeing a lot of reasons to townread each of the 3 remaining slots, and im struggling to figure out which of those are wrong

and i have a really hard time believing that even if i do end up with a clear scumread, it will be one that im super confident in. and i feel like i can easily forsee a future where i push for someone and am wrong and then it's elo and i probably get flipped and that is probably justified

so like there's a chance that if everyone does have it confirmed that there's scum in klick/dragon/appearance, then they'll find it easier to find the correct solve

but also at the same time i currently have that piece of info and am not really getting anywhere with it so idk

What changed

[fireisredsir]

not much, i still don't have a confident scumread and i think i still will probably be limmed here bc i don't really want to go for appearance, but i felt like there was more to talk about still and it seemed weird to be pushing to cut the day off

[fireisredsir]

what especially bothered me was the timing of it

i think that if dragon is actually town, the last few pages were where it felt like we may have started to find each other a little bit

and i think in that world where me/dragon is a TvT, scum would probably want to shut down any second guessing from happening and ensure that one of us gets elimmed

[DragonEater70]

Same ^

Which is why I'm voting implosion.

[T3]

In the world where you/dragon are t/t scum is probably on Dragon and I’m not scum so it’s probably not t/t

[fireisredsir]

why do you think scum would be on dragon specifically?

[DragonEater70]

In the world where you/dragon are t/t scum is probably on Dragon

and I’m not scum so it’s probably not t/t

How did you get to this conclusion???

[DeasVail]

tbf I do think that Fire if scum needed to pivot here because the push on dragon clearly wasn’t working.

Re: Appearance, I still think the gob kill would have been weird coming from a place of Appearance being scum.

[Appearance]

In the world where you/dragon are t/t scum is probably on Dragon and I’m not scum so it’s probably not t/t

maybe my memory sucks but i thought you tred fire?
either way in a t/t world, wouldn't scum try to be on fire?
i mean dragon is not a very viable lim.

[implosion]

implo i would like to hear more about your thought progression on appearance

I feel a little bit uninterested in talking about Appearance in depth right now because I feel confident at this point that you're the right lim for the gamestate and I think whether you flip town or scum it's probably useful for us if scum aren't sure exactly where people are at with Appearance.

In short though a lot of your play has been recontextualized for me as I've remembered that your playstyle as scum is probably roughly designed to make specifically me as a person always instinctively townread you, and so I can't really trust the things I was townreading you for, and as I've had that recontextualization most of your posting just makes me feel like yeah, you can definitely post this as scum. I feel that way about all the things T3 listed as well.

I feel sort of bad because in some sense I'm kind of giving up on accurately reading both you and Appearance on play, and if I had more energy to invest this game I might be able to sort you more meaningfully but I think the gob kill as a point is enough for me to not want Appearance anymore (the fact that he's refusing to engage with anything is trying my patience on this but I don't think it's scum-indicative) and I feel like my reasons to townread Klick and Dragon are just sturdier. I have a rough idea of where I'll be at if you flip town but I don't see any good reason to elaborate on it in depth.

[implosion]

Didn't you say you were find with missing today

Missing on coalition and missing off coalition are

dramatically

different. The point of missing not being the end of the world is that at least it gives new info and whittles things down but the only hard info we have is, there is scum on the coalition. Mislimming off coalition gives us no new info in that regard. Even if we lim successfully off coalition, scum will just shoot off coalition and we'd have to deal with the coalition tomorrow. It's very clearly bad.

Just from an EV perspective, if we miss off coalition and scum shoot off coalition then our EV is 1/4 * 1/3 = 1/12, if we miss on coalition then our EV is 1/3 * 1/3 = 1/9. That's 33% better odds of winning in the latter case in pure numbers. And I think the way discourse has revolved around the coalition this phase is all the more reason to lim on it. I think it's really hard to resolve the coalition without just flipping fire, and that if fire is town, we need to know that asap.

[fireisredsir]

ok thank you i guess

logically your points do make sense but it's a little frustrating as an approach for multiple reasons

[DragonEater70]

Okay so

Voting implosion was a reaction test and literally nobody had a scummy reaction to it so idk what this means

UNVOTE:

[DragonEater70]

Like I guess it does raise implo's scum equity slightly but I am not interested in voting off coalition today.

Anyway fire and Klick I would like to know what are your thoughts on the three of us being T/T/T, because I am very doubtful of this proposition on onw hand, but do feel like TRing both of you individually on the other hand.

[DragonEater70]

Klick did you look into Appearance being scum

[DragonEater70]

Okay so

Voting implosion was a reaction test and literally nobody had a scummy reaction to it so idk what this means

UNVOTE:

I guess it sucked as a reaction test and I should have voted Appearance as a reaction test. I hate coalition games.