Open 900: 7p Wilson [Endgame]

[ORAM]

VC 2.01

combined mod ISO

Black (1):

tired person

tired person (1):

Save The Dragons

Not Voting (3):

Aureal, Black, Psyche

With 5 alive it takes 3 votes to secure an elimination.
There are (expired on 2024-01-23 04:40:04) left in the deadline.

[Psyche]

ok now i recall that the stuff impacting my aureal read was #154 and the stuff around it. mmmmm yeah i guess i do still buy aureal as town. it's maybe bad to post this now but i don't see my attitude changing after re-evaluating the read and deciding it's still a good one. i'll go into more depth on aureal soonish. my re-read is being interrupted by the invisible hand.

[Black]

VOTE: StD

[Psyche]

i guess i'm trying to reconcile "Aureal's town based on meta that tired person doesn't know" with "tired person is scum for going aureal" tho

i've probably over simplified it

who is the subject of this post?

[Save The Dragons]

black said those things i'm paraphrasing in that post

[Psyche]

ok i've re-read everything. in a way i can imagine anyone being scum but in the end i do have reads i intend to stick to.

was suspicious of aureal all over again up to her post #154. there's this pattern of hypercriticism that didn't really look like scumhunting to me -- like it was pointing out issues in people's reasoning just to point them out rather than to express doubt about or probe alliance mindset. but i think #154 had merit and did a good job of presenting real challenges to black that she might have failed as scum. i also agree with black that the stuff about black's activity levels seemed sincerely paranoid in a way scum might not think to fake. aureal's 303/304 pushing drew seems to clinch my townread of her. if she's scum she did a great job committing to the bus i guess but i think i have enough separate from that to confirm the read.

if i were scum-black near deadline i would've tried to force a no lim (by way of disappearing) or a tired lim rather than bus my teammate drew. but i guess i could say that about everyone who ended up on drew. still, me and black are different people. at any rate, i can townread black based on several chains of posts across d1, maybe most notably #52-57 and #156-157. i'd be surprised if anyone told me that these posts are NAI or scummy to them, and then i'd go into more detail about them. not gonna bother now.

#267/#283 is waffly about drew. but personally i was waffly about drew -- and inadvertently coped by being kind of flakey. still, i don't and didn't find these posts very convincing; the idea that wagons need to be controversial/resisted just doesn't strike me as super intuitive. think i decide these posts are NAI for me in the end, but luckily i have the other posts to focus on which still provide a convinced townread.

this as a town bloc would be sufficient to solve the game. but in case people end up wavering on black i'll try to get serious about the hard ones

[Aureal]

Somehow I'm not even surprised people are voting Dragons

[Black]

Somehow I'm not even surprised people are voting Dragons

Is this really all you have to contribute?

[Aureal]

Yes

You are all my pawns now

[Psyche]

aw man i totally misread std's drew vote. i might have to rewrite the whole draft.

[Psyche]

wait why don't i just skip the wallpost and hammer him right now

[Psyche]

well ill share the stuff i have on TP

#209/#211/#244 tp's reads here around aureal match the gist of mine but go in another direction, missing the value in #154.

On the other hand, it's hard to accept the characterization in #218 of black/drew as so chaotic that they cannot be read w/o association tells. I simply struggle to imagine how someone might come to feel that way. Feel like "mild" is the wrong descriptor for STD's playstyle too.

The response to black's #157 justification for dropping suspicion of aureal feels a bit rigid; there's not much engagement with the substance of black's shift. "if anything you should be pressuring harder" is kind of tone deaf wrt to how black read the content.

#245 that takes a sentiment as specific as "i think black and aureal are almost never both town" and explains it as "a gut feeling" is also...not relatable at all? so i'm also inclined to find it unbelievable.

the other stuff in 245 is maybe stubborn enough to be town. tp sees black disagree with her about aureal and assumes it's more likely that black is scum than that her aureal case is uncompelling. i'm a little convinced that TP genuinely believes scum-aureal is

obvious

when i read this post. but 288 (replying to black's 247, which also reads as pretty towny) tersely drops this "you might be scum for not agreeing with me" attitude and seems to implicitly believe black's decision was based in reasoning rather than win condition. so i'm inclined not to read too much into 245.

"i am not going to magically change my reasons for scumreading aureal" in 289 also seems off-base? It doesn't take magic to change the content of a read; it just takes convincing. And TP again doesn't seem to engage meaningfully with the meta information that black shares about aureal. Rather than try to understand what black is conveying by either inquiring further or searching out exemplary games, TP just says "nuh uh" again -- to someone I believe by this point she implicitly townreads. This seems to establish a pattern of incuriousness that I'd be inclined to scumread.

#291 where TP identifies drew as a good lim option does look like town though. just seems so fluid for an act of distancing, and ultimately builds momentum for drew as a consensus lim. but TP keeps her vote on aureal in this post, and only in #307 is the vote moved -- not to drew but to std, apparently just because std voted for TP, so basically an OMGUS vote. Still, the vote moved to drew immediately afterward in #308 -- after reading black's alert that deadline was near. So I can't interpret much of that either.

The brash style of many of these posts looks town to me but the content is almost hard to imagine as coming from a real person. What an interesting person I guess.

[Aureal]

wait why don't i just skip the wallpost and hammer him right now

Please don't

[Black]

wait why don't i just skip the wallpost and hammer him right now

wait why don't i just skip the wallpost and hammer him right now

Please don't

Ya'll are trippin. Everyone has one vote on them

[Black]

Aureal I expected you to push me really hard today

Why are you suddenly taking a backseat in this game?

[Save The Dragons]

ill try to post when i have time

[Psyche]

wait why don't i just skip the wallpost and hammer him right now

Please don't

ok but answer the question why not std

[Psyche]

meh i see the explanation in your iso

[Psyche]

std has somewhat more to his iso than i first thought. #258 is arguably his most substantial observation (i think it's about black?) and maybe does read as town to me, but just vaguely.

initially thought that std never really justified his vote on drew, which pinged me as town. but context suggests std voted drew because of drew's justification for voting std. i have this idea that scum on some level might want to make sure they get credit for voting their buddies. there's some performativity in std's vote but overall the interaction is pretty bare so idk. i can't decide if distancing is happening here the way i might have if the drew vote had come out of nowhere. how annoying

the shift to tired person on the other hand does look bad for std, and i don't agree that it didn't help save drew. but it's mostly only a bad look relationally; tp wasn't a bad choice at that point. my main beef really is the justification with black's idea that wagons need to be controversial/resisted -- like i said before, it just doesn't seem super compelling to me. and besides, the drew wagon was ultimately plenty resisted, and only succeeded a couple hours before deadline. i do know of mafia plays to use this kind of reasoning though, so i'm unsure how much to hold it against him.

in all, though, it's just an awfully inconvenient moment to follow someone's meh reasoning about gamestate as justification to shift from someone you were perfectly willing to vote for on a reads basis a page or so ago (and who turned out to be scum)...to a different user that you've never really expressed anything close to a read about. the only caveat i can muster about this is that it's almost too straightforward a mistake to expect of an experienced player.

[Psyche]

am certainly ambivalent, but games are more fun when you don't sit on the fence

VOTE: tired person

[Black]

Hmmmm

[Aureal]

wait why don't i just skip the wallpost and hammer him right now

wait why don't i just skip the wallpost and hammer him right now

Please don't

Ya'll are trippin. Everyone has one vote on them

Reading vote counts after people vote more is hard

I demand a vote count in every post

[Aureal]

Aureal I expected you to push me really hard today

Why are you suddenly taking a backseat in this game?

Why would you expect that?

[Black]

I hammered you

Are you scum?

Oh I missed that

No, like I said I am not scum, and what have you learned now Aureal?

That Black is scum. Probably with Psyche.

But her reactions here are already kinda telling me that.

Because of this post

[Aureal]

Logic error detected, Drew was scum

Therefore statement "Black is scum" does not follow, remains in previous position of "Black might be scum"

With a dose of "this feels like annoyance at bussing only to be told she's not getting townpoints for it"