Micro Normal 1100 | Game Over

[JacksonVirgo]

As the words imply, analysing vote history

[Snow2697]

Kay - I have explained my position on you above.
The reason why I townread Jackson from VC is that I think that he committed his vote to NM - something he would not have done as scum, since he would have reserved possibility to vote me or another town if there is opportunity.

[Snow2697]

BTW Kay - my position on you does not mean that I would call for your lime today. To the contrary, since there is scenario where you are locked town, I would be reluctant to do this.

[KayJayQueue]

Kay - I have explained my position on you above.
The reason why I townread Jackson from VC is that I think that he committed his vote to NM - something he would not have done as scum, since he would have reserved possibility to vote me or another town if there is opportunity.

If I’m scum, how do you explain me not even trying to put Drew at E-1 and see if anyone bites? Why immediately go to hammer scum if it’s my partner? Make that make sense. I have no loyalty to Drew if NM and I are scum together, why wouldn’t I try to get a mislim? What do I gain from going straight to hammer instead of seeing in anyone would hammer Drew since he was getting enough heat? You are trying to force me into a scum role that makes no sense with what happened. I suggest you spend the next few days looking into someone else because I am a waste of your time. It should be clear by now that I am town.

[Doctor Drew]

Kay - I have explained my position on you above.
The reason why I townread Jackson from VC is that I think that he committed his vote to NM - something he would not have done as scum, since he would have reserved possibility to vote me or another town if there is opportunity.

If I’m scum, how do you explain me not even trying to put Drew at E-1 and see if anyone bites? Why immediately go to hammer scum if it’s my partner? Make that make sense. I have no loyalty to Drew if NM and I are scum together, why wouldn’t I try to get a mislim? What do I gain from going straight to hammer instead of seeing in anyone would hammer Drew since he was getting enough heat? You are trying to force me into a scum role that makes no sense with what happened. I suggest you spend the next few days looking into someone else because I am a waste of your time. It should be clear by now that I am town.

Ok now Kay is making lots of sense as well.

In my head leaves Solon, Snow, Jackson, Fancy.....and in that order from most to least likely scum

[JacksonVirgo]

I just had a thought about Solon.

He claims to be a weak ONE SHOT friendly neighbor. So why did he feel any pressure to avoid choosing someone who was scum, which would cause him to die, when he could have just not chosen anyone?

Even if he wasn't one-shot, he's still not required to use his role at night. But the fact that he IS one-shot, then I really wonder, why is he feeling like he has to burn it so early? He sounded like he really didn't have a good sense of how he should use it, but if that were true, I would think he'd think "I will just save it for another night, then." He makes it sound like he needed to pick somebody when he never needed to.

The fact that he screwed up the name of his role is just icing on the cake.

I'm telling you something just doesn't add up here so I'm putting my vote back.

VOTE: Solon

I would like to add that nobody that receives a 1-shot FN will holster just because of the fear
of hitting a wolf. And with this power, chances are they use it ASAP. This entire post feels like it’s incredibly unfair towards solon and not pushing what actually should be pushed.

[JacksonVirgo]

Kay - I have explained my position on you above.
The reason why I townread Jackson from VC is that I think that he committed his vote to NM - something he would not have done as scum, since he would have reserved possibility to vote me or another town if there is opportunity.

If I’m scum, how do you explain me not even trying to put Drew at E-1 and see if anyone bites? Why immediately go to hammer scum if it’s my partner? Make that make sense. I have no loyalty to Drew if NM and I are scum together, why wouldn’t I try to get a mislim? What do I gain from going straight to hammer instead of seeing in anyone would hammer Drew since he was getting enough heat? You are trying to force me into a scum role that makes no sense with what happened. I suggest you spend the next few days looking into someone else because I am a waste of your time. It should be clear by now that I am town.

Ok now Kay is making lots of sense as well.

In my head leaves Solon, Snow, Jackson, Fancy.....and in that order from most to least likely scum

You still think there’s a chance I’m a wolf?

[KayJayQueue]

I also have to say, and I might be the wrong analysis of votes, but when NM was at E-1 and Drew was at E-2, they were voting for each other with Fancy and I as 2 votes on snow. Why point at each other when they could both vote snow, put him at E-1 and avoid a hammer for NM? I’m finding it difficult to see why Drew wouldn’t try to help NM more there unless he thought he was the only other option (though I think Snow was viable)

It’s a shaky read but I’d rather put it out there than ignore it.

[Doctor Drew]

Kay - I have explained my position on you above.
The reason why I townread Jackson from VC is that I think that he committed his vote to NM - something he would not have done as scum, since he would have reserved possibility to vote me or another town if there is opportunity.

If I’m scum, how do you explain me not even trying to put Drew at E-1 and see if anyone bites? Why immediately go to hammer scum if it’s my partner? Make that make sense. I have no loyalty to Drew if NM and I are scum together, why wouldn’t I try to get a mislim? What do I gain from going straight to hammer instead of seeing in anyone would hammer Drew since he was getting enough heat? You are trying to force me into a scum role that makes no sense with what happened. I suggest you spend the next few days looking into someone else because I am a waste of your time. It should be clear by now that I am town.

Ok now Kay is making lots of sense as well.

In my head leaves Solon, Snow, Jackson, Fancy.....and in that order from most to least likely scum

You still think there’s a chance I’m a wolf?

Not really, I should have put a big gap between you and Snow. But in my eyes you are still in the poe.

[Malachai]

No. The point is that if Kay thought that you could have convinced someone (GiF?) to join the Drew wagon putting Drew at E-1, then scum!Kay would have waited for that and would have hammered town!Drew and would not have hammered NM. Why hammer her scumpartner if there are prospects to lim town? In this scenario there is almost no way Kay can be scum, so she is locked town.

I mean...there are tons of problems with the angle you are working here. But first and foremost, if Kay swaps a vote to Drew, no WAY that "locks" her as town. If the scum team were Kay and Not Mafia, why on earth would it lock Kay as town for her to hammer a townie like Drew? Your logic makes zero sense.

On top of that, Kay cannot possibly know what other players are going to do with their votes, regardless of her alignment. Kay being scum does not somehow endow her with some superpower of being able to read players' minds and know exactly how they are going to vote in this way or another, so I haven't the slightest clue why you are even entertaining an angle like this. You keep on arguing that Kay might have waited for a player to do this or do that, but the fact remains that there's no way Kay could have known what we were up to, no matter what her alignment is.

Finally, "Kay would have waited for someone else to vote Drew before she did"...why? Why couldn't she just immediately switch over to Drew whenever she feels like it? If we're still going along with this theory that Kay is endowed with super-scum-powers that allow her to predict what other players can do, if she had a hunch that another player was going to hop on Drew, what does it matter if she's the 4th or 5th vote on him, if she knows he's going down anyway?

There are just so many problems with everything you're saying here; it is total nonsense if you ask me.

If Kay thought that you could not have convinced anyone to join the Drew wagon, then the only lim option seems to be NM, so scum!Kay might have decided to hammer him herself to become more red. In this scenario Kay can be scum, so her NM hammer probably should not change a lot her status on my scale.

You are effectively saying, since there is a possibility that Kay could have just hammered her partner, she deserves zero credit for being town. It doesn't work that way. She maybe does not deserve FULL town credit just for that, but she does absolutely deserve town credit for hammering scum.

Why aren't you giving more consideration to all the other attention she has given to Not Mafia? She was on his case pretty much all of Day 1. You keep looking at the final hours of Day 1 and refusing to analyze the rest of the day and you squeeze in this odd analysis that is only a microcosm of what should matter when you evaluate Kay.

She cast a vote on Not Mafia on March 4th that she didn't remove until 3 days later. She otherwise posted all over the place how Not Mafia is at the top of her list. Her story throughout Day 1 is consistent in labeling Not Mafia and you as her top town targets and considering everyone else to be town. I don't think she wavered hardly at all in labeling Not Mafia as scum.

This is dependent on what Kay thought about the situation, which - as you have rightly pointed - is hard to assess.

If it is "hard to assess", then for heaven's sake, please stop using it as a basis for any of your reads on her.

[Malachai]

Her story throughout Day 1 is consistent in labeling Not Mafia and you as her

top town targets

...

I meant top SCUM targets here.

[Malachai]

Kay - I have explained my position on you above.
The reason why I townread Jackson from VC is that I think that he committed his vote to NM - something he would not have done as scum, since he would have reserved possibility to vote me or another town if there is opportunity.

And who gets to decide if "there is opportunity"? She had this exact same opportunity with Drew and didn't take it, and yet that's irrelevant to you.

Jackson would never have hammered his partner as scum, but Kay would have, to the extent that you give her 0 town credit for doing it? Do you not see how inconsistent your logic is here?

[Malachai]

I would like to add that nobody that receives a 1-shot FN will holster just because of the fear
of hitting a wolf. And with this power, chances are they use it ASAP. This entire post feels like it’s incredibly unfair towards solon and not pushing what actually should be pushed.

I don't see why. Why would someone be in a rush to use an ability they only have one of?

[Snow2697]

No. The point is that if Kay thought that you could have convinced someone (GiF?) to join the Drew wagon putting Drew at E-1, then scum!Kay would have waited for that and would have hammered town!Drew and would not have hammered NM. Why hammer her scumpartner if there are prospects to lim town? In this scenario there is almost no way Kay can be scum, so she is locked town.

I mean...there are tons of problems with the angle you are working here. But first and foremost, if Kay swaps a vote to Drew, no WAY that "locks" her as town. If the scum team were Kay and Not Mafia, why on earth would it lock Kay as town for her to hammer a townie like Drew? Your logic makes zero sense.

On top of that, Kay cannot possibly know what other players are going to do with their votes, regardless of her alignment. Kay being scum does not somehow endow her with some superpower of being able to read players' minds and know exactly how they are going to vote in this way or another, so I haven't the slightest clue why you are even entertaining an angle like this. You keep on arguing that Kay might have waited for a player to do this or do that, but the fact remains that there's no way Kay could have known what we were up to, no matter what her alignment is.

Finally, "Kay would have waited for someone else to vote Drew before she did"...why? Why couldn't she just immediately switch over to Drew whenever she feels like it? If we're still going along with this theory that Kay is endowed with super-scum-powers that allow her to predict what other players can do, if she had a hunch that another player was going to hop on Drew, what does it matter if she's the 4th or 5th vote on him, if she knows he's going down anyway?

There are just so many problems with everything you're saying here; it is total nonsense if you ask me.

If Kay thought that you could not have convinced anyone to join the Drew wagon, then the only lim option seems to be NM, so scum!Kay might have decided to hammer him herself to become more red. In this scenario Kay can be scum, so her NM hammer probably should not change a lot her status on my scale.

You are effectively saying, since there is a possibility that Kay could have just hammered her partner, she deserves zero credit for being town. It doesn't work that way. She maybe does not deserve FULL town credit just for that, but she does absolutely deserve town credit for hammering scum.

Why aren't you giving more consideration to all the other attention she has given to Not Mafia? She was on his case pretty much all of Day 1. You keep looking at the final hours of Day 1 and refusing to analyze the rest of the day and you squeeze in this odd analysis that is only a microcosm of what should matter when you evaluate Kay.

She cast a vote on Not Mafia on March 4th that she didn't remove until 3 days later. She otherwise posted all over the place how Not Mafia is at the top of her list. Her story throughout Day 1 is consistent in labeling Not Mafia and you as her top town targets and considering everyone else to be town. I don't think she wavered hardly at all in labeling Not Mafia as scum.

This is dependent on what Kay thought about the situation, which - as you have rightly pointed - is hard to assess.

If it is "hard to assess", then for heaven's sake, please stop using it as a basis for any of your reads on her.

You are misreading me. I have never said that Kay hammering Drew makes her lock town.
It is her hammering NM makes her lock town IF in her view there was still possibility of you gathering votes in Drew.

[Malachai]

@Jackson

Shouldn't you also give more consideration to how rushed Solon was in this moment? He's talking about being on the bus, having little opportunity to really evaluate things properly. Everything he said also suggests he really didn't have a strong sense of who he wanted to use this ability on. To me that suggests that the rational decision for him would have been to leave it alone for the night. I think you're giving him some credit he doesn't deserve.

I mean can you think of a worse way for him to use this ability, to use it on someone who already had him as a "lock town"?

[KayJayQueue]

VOTE: N_M

Let’s just pick up where we left off in a couple days. I don’t think it should be Drew right now and I don’t think Snow is going to get the support (yet, but I’m not off him as scum)

Here is what I said when I hammered. I clearly said I don’t think it should be Drew which should imply I thought he could get enough votes to be eliminated. I voted NM because my read on him all of day 1 was scum and my other scum read was not getting support. I was worried for a Drew vote and felt way better about hammering NM and turns out…I was right (at least about NM so far)

[KayJayQueue]

Snow: I feel like you’re much more attached to this theory that I’m scum because I’ve been scum reading you for quite awhile. I think you should be trying to make a better case for yourself rather than looking at me for things that can clearly be explained. Instead of being upset that I’m pointing my finger at you and in turn pointing one back at me, help me understand why I’m wrong about you being scum.

[Malachai]

You are misreading me. I have never said that Kay hammering Drew makes her lock town.

Well then, I must be losing my mind, because that's exactly what you said right here:

Kay - if there was real chance to vote out Drew after GiF’s vote switch, then Kay is locked town.

There WAS a real chance to vote out Drew. She could have voted him to put him at E-1 and you admit yourself that there were other people willing to vote Drew. There was a "real chance", absolutely, 100% a "real chance" here, and you cannot convince anyone otherwise. The opportunity was there and the "real chance" was real indeed.

It is her hammering NM makes her lock town IF in her view there was still possibility of you gathering votes in Drew.

So, again, why even bother with a take like this, when she knows as well as the rest of us how likely it was that Drew would have been eliminated?

[Snow2697]

In my view there is huge difference between Kay and Jackson.
Jackson effectively locked his vote into NM, thus limiting his ability to vote another player. Makes little sense if he is scum with NM.
Kay has not locked her vote into NM. Therefore additional analysis is required.

[KayJayQueue]

You’re just being stubborn now.

[Malachai]

In my view there is huge difference between Kay and Jackson.
Jackson effectively locked his vote into NM, thus limiting his ability to vote another player. Makes little sense if he is scum with NM.
Kay has not locked her vote into NM. Therefore additional analysis is required.

Well, you've made an attempt at that analysis and the results are extremely underwhelming. Time to move on.

[JacksonVirgo]

I would like to add that nobody that receives a 1-shot FN will holster just because of the fear
of hitting a wolf. And with this power, chances are they use it ASAP. This entire post feels like it’s incredibly unfair towards solon and not pushing what actually should be pushed.

I don't see why. Why would someone be in a rush to use an ability they only have one of?

I don’t have time to respond to the bigger posts yet, or give a super detailed explanation but if you trust me as a slot then trust me that people rarely holster a charge like this, let alone a FN. It’s a limited resource sure, but that doesn’t matter at all. Firstly it’s optimal to not holster for risk of getting night killed or pushed the following day to use the “Im a FN let me live one more night“ which never goes well for them. People are mostly also driven by impulse and even if they aren’t there is no benefit to waiting to use the charge. Most roles do not necessarily benefit from holstering, it induces more and more risk as time goes on. It’s not strange at all that it was used N1, at all. You should be looking at things that may actually hold water like why they chose who they did, or check back on D1 to see if their play lines up with their claim. Both of which I will personally be looking into once I have the time

[JacksonVirgo]

Be back soon

[Malachai]

You should be looking at things that may actually hold water like why they chose who they did

That's exactly what I did at the end of post 1539.

[Snow2697]

You are misreading me. I have never said that Kay hammering Drew makes her lock town.

Well then, I must be losing my mind, because that's exactly what you said right here:

Kay - if there was real chance to vote out Drew after GiF’s vote switch, then Kay is locked town.

There WAS a real chance to vote out Drew. She could have voted him to put him at E-1 and you admit yourself that there were other people willing to vote Drew. There was a "real chance", absolutely, 100% a "real chance" here, and you cannot convince anyone otherwise. The opportunity was there and the "real chance" was real indeed.

It is her hammering NM makes her lock town IF in her view there was still possibility of you gathering votes in Drew.

So, again, why even bother with a take like this, when she knows as well as the rest of us how likely it was that Drew would have been eliminated?

I don't think Kay was able to put Drew at E-1 where, as you say, she called me and NM scums. This would have put her under Drew's attack, which a player of her style should avoid. She could have hammered him if someone else put Drew at E-1. Thus, the query whether you could have collected this vote against Drew.
Whatever. Agree that Kay should be credited for her vote vs NM. I would range her between sus and locked town on my scale. She is not my priority for D2, and I think that her lime today would be mistake. I am also against Solon's lime today.