Open 101 - Two of Four - Game over before 712

[Raging Rabbit]

SP has been re-prodded, will be replaced if we don't hear from him soon.

[ZazieR]

You are scum along with (name). Use (this) quicktopic to night talk. Each night, you may PM me the name of one player you wish to kill. You must also specify which of you makes the kill, in case of a roleblock. Nights will last a maximum of 3 RL days, if you don't send me your choices by that time I will randomize them.

You win when only scum remain, or when nothing can prevent that situation.

As you can see, it seems that scum wasn't allowed to talk before this game started. If that's the case, they don't know what the other will do during the claims, and what's better to do during the claims. Should one of them claim, or not? They don't know if the other would want that. This 'surprise attack' will be gone if we do a massclaim tomorrow. This is also one of my reasons why I think it's better to do a massclaim during day 1.
Besides, if we claim now, the scum will be in either the same group (the powerrole claim group or the non-powerrole claim group) or both in two different groups, which means that one of them claimed to have a powerrole, while the other didn't. This gives them no time to talk about what to do, which would be the case if we would do a massclaim tomorrow.
Also, if we do it like this, they won't know which player has which powerrole. Take for example a NG. If there would be a cop and a doc present, one of them would be killed and the other roleblocked. As there's no roleblocker in this set-up, as we can see in the quote, the scum can only take down one of the powerroles this night. But as they don't know the roles, they have to guess and that could mean that we have the stronger powerrole live through the night. It also gives the powerroles an idea who to target this night.

This is why I think a massclaim during day 1 would be good. The only downisde I see, is that we probably have one powerrole less day 2. However, if this means that we can lynch scum day 1 or day 2, I think it's good to do a massclaim.

[ThAdmiral]

what happens when the cop is killed and we end up with the miller as our only surviving "power role" (i.e. murphy's law).

[veerus]

So let me get this straight.. the plan is to have 2 players claim power-role and then we know for sure that they're town, right?

What if one or both scum claim power-roles too? We won't have enough days to figure out who's who and we'll be forced to lynch our own admitted power-roles. That doesn't sound like a viable solution.

[ZazieR]

Not true.
If both scum claim powerrole, we have 3 confirmed players. Which leaves 4 players of which 2 are scum. Then all of the four claimed powerroles have to claim their real role. If 2 claim the same role, we have caught one scum for sure. If all of them claim a different role, we'll just have to wait. Why lynch as our real powerroles can try to look for scum?
If one of them claims a powerrole, while the other not then we lynch the scummiest townie. The scum then has to choose, to kill one powerrole or one townie. Either way, one of the scum will be in a group of 2, which means that we'll have 50% chance of lynching. Add their behaviour of the previous day and the chance might be bigger or smaller.
But the main point why it's better to do a 'massclaim' now is to give the scum less to talk about. If I'm correct that the scum couldn't talk about this before day 1 started, then they have to decide on their own. If we would do a 'massclaim' day 2, they can talk about who claims what during night 1. Now they have to decide who does what without talking about it with their partner. This could mean that one of them will make a huge error.

But where's everybody?

[ThAdmiral]

well the more we talk about it the more information it gives the scum about what they should or should not do. You shouldn't have brought up the fact that if both scum claim there will be three confirmed townies, for example, as the scum may not have picked up on that.
Instead we should just decide now whether we are for this or not, and then do it or not do it.

I, for one, am against it.

[Raging Rabbit]

SilverPhoenix hasn't picked up his second prod and will be replaced.

[ZazieR]

Mod, no prod for Kaiveran?

Tha main point of this plan is that it's a surprise attack. The scum can't talk about claiming before we start the claiming. Now they have to trust eachother into who of them claims what, while if we wait till day 2, they can discuss about this.

But TA, why are you against it? And why do you think it's better to claim day 2?

Can all the other players give their opinion, including arguments, and perhaps suggest something else?

[Ripley]

I've given my thoughts on both miller claim strategies, have suggested a claim strategy of my own that hardly anybody replied to

I think the problem was I didn't understand your strategy. Could you explain it again?

What I suggested was not a mass claim, but that if a player one vote short of being lynched should claim, as people usually dom in that position, then they should, if claiming a power role, not specify the power role being claimed. They should just claim "power role" or "plain townie".

ZazieR's plan is one I'd thought of myself. It has a huge downside, which is that it tells the scum exactly who the power roles are going into N1, information we won't necessarily have ourselves, without necessarily increasing our odds of hitting scum (the actual odds depend what the scum do).

However ZazieR has a point that if we do this day 1 the scum have to take a decision very early in the game and before they've had a chance to discuss. (I made this same point earlier with regard to the miller game strategy and why it might be better to do that Day 1.)

There's another factor to take into account, though, which is the nature of this game. People are posting as little as they can get away with, it's slow, dragging and deadly dull. And in my experience a game that starts off in this way almost never improves. If a replacement joins and starts off being active and enthusiastic, they're soon dragged down by the lack of interest of the other players, and either start playing like the existing players, or else leave in search of a better game.

There are two arguments arising from this:

1. Games of this kind are almost always won by scum. The town needs to make an effort to win; if they are not, scum need do almost nothing and the game generally falls into their hands almost by default.

2. It will be particularly difficult to decide on a lynch by normal means, ie by examining people's posts and voting records, looking for clues, inconsistencies etc. There's hardly anything to work with. And we have a deadline in one week. At this rate the deadline lynch will be pretty much random.

Therefore in these exceptional circumstances I might actually support a mass claim in randomised order, or by having the most suspicious claim first and then pick the next, etc. I see precious little hope of anything more useful happening between now and deadline. It might not be the optimum strategy in a game with a reasonable level of posting, but this game does not have that. And the scum were likely to win anyway. So why not liven things up with a mass claim? It would at least add some much-needed interest to the proceedings. It might give the scum some stress as they realise they have to commit themselves long before they are ready to, and with no helpful discussion from with their scum buddy. I like to give scum stress. At present they're having the easiest possible time of it. They only need to make a couple of non-committal posts twice a week, with deadline drawing ever closer, and the likelihood of it arriving without anyone having a clue what to do. So yeah, in this particular case I'd be up for a mass claim - only claiming "power role", not the specific role. Can't be any worse than the current stagnation.

[veerus]

A couple things to consider..

IF we are to claim, we need to claim D1. That's a given. The problem is that I'm not sure giving out power roles is a good thing.

According to the rules, there's a deadline.. I'm guessing after wasting all this time, we won't have time for everyone to claim at this pace. Our best bet is to lynch and soon.

I like Kaiveran for reasons I stated earlier.

mod: when is the deadline?

[ThAdmiral]

But TA, why are you against it? And why do you think it's better to claim day 2?

I'm against it because I want to give our power roles every chance of surviving through to day 2. Obviously if we have a cop and they survive we will have more information. But the same could also be true for a doc and an rb. If the doc prevents a kill we have another confirmed town, and if an rb stops a kill then we have scum. I want to give every chance of one of these things to happen.
Like ripley i also think the mafia are a very good chance of winning this game because of the low activity, but unlike him I think this game will be won off the back of lucky/good investigations/protects/blocks, not a day one mass claim to "liven things up".

Also if you think there should be a mass claim today because there is a chance we will lynch a power role, I am fairly certain they would claim if they were in trouble of being hammered (i'd hope so anyway), so this fear is unjustified.

I see what you are saying about catching the mafia off guard, but I don't think it is a big enough positive to trade a power role for.

[Raging Rabbit]

axle135

replaces SilverPhoenix, effective immediately. Thanks axle!

Prodding TCS and Kaiveran.

Original deadline was December 22nd, due to all the replacements I'll give you guys another week. New deadline is

December 29th, 12:00 GMT

.

[The Central Scrutinizer]

I'm with Thadmiral... I think it's an awful idea to massclaim on day one. Essentially all we'd be doing is giving the scum free shots at both power roles, making the game that much easier for them. No, no... I think it's safe to say that this is an awful plan, and I will vote for anyone who either claims or continues to push massclaim.

[axle135]

If you think about it, there are 3 cases for a massclaim. I'm going to spend time thinking about a best WCS. I'm not pushing the issue, but simply am saying that it might be best not to throw the idea out the window so soon.

Oh, and hello everyone!

[veerus]

hey... new blood, welcome. Please fill us in on your massclaim proposition. So far I'm not very excited about it and it looks like I'm not the only one.

P.S. I'm still for the Kaiveran lynch.. after the quick prod, he's disappeared. Obviously he won't make the same mistake again.

[nareviaK]

This is Kaiveran, and I'm extremely pissed now, but it's really all my fault.

I've been grounded and cannot continue the game. I'll have to be replaced.

Bye guys ;_;

[Ripley]

axle135, if you have useful thoughts to post about the mass claim issue please go ahead and do so. The only real argument against posting such thoughts is the one that sometimes it is difficult to think aloud without alerting scum to a course of action that might not otherwise have occurred to them, but it's easy to overestimate that risk. Scum can talk at night; our only opportunity to talk is during the day, and fear of doing that leads to bland contentless posting or the kind of reluctant non-posting that has characterized this game so far, and which makes it so easy for the scum to hide.

I think it's safe to say that this is an awful plan, and I will vote for anyone who either claims or continues to push massclaim.

The problem with threats like this is that they tend to close down discussion. How can you discuss anything when only one view is allowed and anyone arguing the other side is under threat of being voted simply for expressing their view? Already we can see how axle135 has felt it necessary to state he isn't "pushing the issue" although it seems he has things to say about it.

And if you are an innocent and believe anyone "pushing" the mass claim must be suspect, surely you would learn more by waiting to see exactly what people do have to say about it, rather than frightening them off with threats of a vote?

[ThAdmiral]

@ kaiveran: internet grounded. harsh.

I've been there though, many years ago...

[axle135]

internet grounded? the only time I go w/o internet is at camp. o.O

What are our other options besides massclaim? Sorry, casework has never been a great skill of mine. Can we all go through it together here or do you want to assume that if we go through massclaim that the mafia won't bother with cases themselves?

[Raging Rabbit]

CarnCarn

replaces Kaiveran, effective immediately. Yay.

[CarnCarn]

Hi everyone. Short thread, so I should catch up quite soon, probably post thoughts later tonight.

[CarnCarn]

Thoughts on massclaim:

The theory behind massclaim is that it will give us better odds of catching scum today than if we lynch randomly (and restrict scum claims in the future). I believe we technically start at LyLo-1 here, with 2 scum and 7 players (WCS, assuming no scum NKs are prevented), so massclaiming D1 is not that strange. So, does massclaim improve our odds?
Here are the possible scenarios if we massclaim (and I don't believe for a second that scum would not have figured this out, too):

Both scum claim PRs (dumb, but possible). This clears 3 players as town, and reduces the lynch pool to 2/4. Also, the claimed PRs basically are NK immune, otherwise the scum get outed quickly. Overall, this is just obviously terrible play for scum.

Both scum claim vanilla and the two PRs claim power. This essentially clears the PRs and gives us random lynch odds of 40% (2/5 players left), a significant improvement over 28% (2/7).

One scum claims vanilla, other claims PR (the "best" scum strategy, WCS for town). Then, 1/3 (33%) of the PRs is lying and 1/4 (25%) for the townies is lying. I don't know about you, but 33% is not much greater than 28%, and we have a 2/3 chance of lynching a real PR (which would be a huge loss), as well as outing both the PRs. And if we lynch in the vanilla pool, our pure probability chances are actually

lower

for hitting scum than if we hadn't massclaimed (25% vs. 28%).

Obviously, scum would have figured this out and punished the town pretty badly for claiming.

FoS: Everyone who wanted to massclaim (ZazieR especially)

[veerus]

I think it's safe to say that this is an awful plan, and I will vote for anyone who either claims or continues to push massclaim.

The problem with threats like this is that they tend to close down discussion. How can you discuss anything when only one view is allowed and anyone arguing the other side is under threat of being voted simply for expressing their view? Already we can see how axle135 has felt it necessary to state he isn't "pushing the issue" although it seems he has things to say about it.

And if you are an innocent and believe anyone "pushing" the mass claim must be suspect, surely you would learn more by waiting to see exactly what people do have to say about it, rather than frightening them off with threats of a vote?

Great point, Ripley. Combine this with CC's great post just now, I think the vote should be obvious.

unvote; vote: TCS

[veerus]

mod: vote count?

[CarnCarn]

I think it's safe to say that this is an awful plan, and I will vote for anyone who either claims or continues to push massclaim.

The problem with threats like this is that they tend to close down discussion. How can you discuss anything when only one view is allowed and anyone arguing the other side is under threat of being voted simply for expressing their view? Already we can see how axle135 has felt it necessary to state he isn't "pushing the issue" although it seems he has things to say about it.

And if you are an innocent and believe anyone "pushing" the mass claim must be suspect, surely you would learn more by waiting to see exactly what people do have to say about it, rather than frightening them off with threats of a vote?

Great point, Ripley. Combine this with CC's great post just now, I think the vote should be obvious.

unvote; vote: TCS

Interesting view, and I think it is also worth pursuing. I just realized Kaiveran was already voting TCS, and I'm going to keep my vote there.

I'll try to make a more analytical post of everyone, too. I just wanted to point out the potentially fatal flaws of massclaiming today when it seemed like people were seriously considering claiming.

Regardless, deadline is quickly approaching, so I'll get working on this very soon.