Newbie 2034 | Space II | Over

[Town looter]

TL replaces TL, nice.

Haven't read thread yet, and got some shit going on this weekend, but will hopefully catch up tomorrow.

[Town looter]

UNVOTE: 72offsuit

Heh, very interesting scenario to replace into, but there is a silver lining: I reckon I can get some good reads on people based on how they have reacted to my slot using fresh eyes.

Before I start, i've had a decent read through, but have faded in an out, especially with Andy's and Echo's arguments with various people, so I might be a bit light on a few details.

Anyhoo, I have the benefit of replacing into a scummy slot (and that opening from TL the Legend

was

scummy - UneducatedGuesser's read is a reasonable one), but have a green role PM. So looking at how my wagon progressed, I would guess that those on it very early are likely to be town, those joining shortly after have a higher chance of being scum, especially those that try to inflate the wagon once it is already underway.

Similarly, I would suggest the first person questioning the wagon is probably coming from a town point of view, but those that follow have a bit of a question mark over them. Those that stick with it are tricky, so obviously it gets a bit messy and nothing is 100% objective here.

As such I think, in terms of the wagon building (in rough order):

• UneducatedGuesser's vote to be towny
  
• Taylor's vote and 72offsuit's implied FOS to be in the grey area - probably town motivated
  
• Echo's implied FOS a bit weird, could be scum implicitly getting on board the wagon (without actually voting), but more likely townish I think, but then pushes more aggressively later on, which could indicate scum motivations...
  
• Andy's referring to my slot but not actually forming a view is straight up weird, given their style, I think we are in the scum range now
  
• Billy Big Nose calls my slot bad, but only because of inactivity, and not the obvious points that UG and others have made. BBN gets some newb-scum points here.

Flea the Magician also kinda shaded my slot a bit, but only very briefly, so wouldn't really say they were on the wagon. Similarly, Random Canadian joins late to the party, but kinda null given they replaced in.

And then the wagon falls apart, and for me these are the highlights:

• It actually starts falling with Taylor in post 128, on early, off early, Taylor gets a light town pass for now
  
• Flea the Magician makes post 180, which, from my point of view screams of them knowing I am town and trying to buy post flip town cred
  
• Billy Big Nose comes off after Flea, could be some association here, although, given BBN's post, it sounds like they are happy to stick with the elimination, I probably wouldn't call them off the wagon.
  
• UneducatedGuesser comes off wagon and cites 4 scum reads i think? Not sure I read 268 correctly?

Those that stick with it (like 72offsuit and Echo I think, oh and BBN) are probably more towny than those jumping off - although it's tricky, so I am not writing off scum sticking with what looks like an easy mis-elimination.

So based on this I would read Taylor as townish; Echo, 72offsuit and UneducatedGuesser as townish with caution; Random Canadian null since they came in late, Andy, Billy Big Nose and Flea the Magician leaning scummy.

Taylor and Echo probably stopped reading like 3 paragraphs in, so I'll post more general reads in a bit.

[Town looter]

In other news, replacing in is both awesome, and sucks balls. Fresh eyes on 10+ pages is way easier to form reads on vs. read as you go, on the flip side, you have to read 10+ pages...

But just finished a 200+ large, so this is rather pleasant in comparison.

@72: Sorry for yeeting you in Musical Mafia bro

[Town looter]

Eh, started on full reads, but I tend to develop and refine my reads as I type them out, and I am a slow MFer. So it will take hours, and hours is something I don't have at the moment with work and home life.

Here's my read on 72, and i'll try and get to the others tomorrow. Right now I'd be happy eliminating from [Andy, BBN, Flea], but that is liable to change as I overthink the shit out of everything .

• 72offsuit
  seems very pro-town in how they are approaching this game. However, I have also just come out of a game where I saw a different style from 72offsuit, and they were a town PR. This confuses me, as in isolation 72offsuit seems town here, but the meta read contradicts this. That being said he kinda reverted to the 72offsuit later in the thread.

[Town looter]

Not really impressed by Town Looter's entrance. Most of his reads revolve around his own slot, which is pretty useless.
TL the Legend was a scumbox.

Fair call, but my wagon analysis is only part of my catch up, I have some evolving reads, but want to do ISOs of a couple people first, especially UG and Taylor since they are top two wagons right now (and I helpfully have light TRs on them...).

@Everyone: Agrees or disagrees with my case on UG, and overall updated reads on UG pls ASAP.

Given I have a TR on both you and UG, I am on the fence and need to put more thought into it.

Flea the Magician also kinda shaded my slot a bit, but only very briefly,

so wouldn't really say they were on the wagon.

[...]

[*]Flea the Magician makes post 180, which, from my point of view screams of them knowing I am town and trying to buy post flip town cred

[...]

So based on this I would read Taylor as townish; Echo, 72offsuit and UneducatedGuesser as townish with caution; Random Canadian null since they came in late, Andy, Billy Big Nose and Flea the Magician leaning scummy.

Said post is me defending a slot with 6+edit posts, at L-1 with a wagon that stinks of horse manure. The pinked section stands out to me and I'm curious as to what you're thinking at this point.

You mean what post I saw some minor shading? I read your post 69 as a kind of minor shading/SR without taking a firm stance, but wanting to challenge Taylor's TR. But like I say, there isn't much in it, so hard to tell if you were on board with the wagon.

To be honest, my wagon analysis seemed much more useful last night, especially around the scum leans (relevant to Echo's question below as well).

Taylor and Echo probably stopped reading like 3 paragraphs in, so I'll post more general reads in a bit.

nah i read the whole thing, i'm curious as to how you got your read on billy though
you end saying that he's likely scummy but nothing in the post above really points towards it-- you actually give more reasons for him to be town

Yeah, since the wagon never really died, my logic around scum jumping off it doesn't really hold up. Although, main reason I thought BBN was slightly scummy was their joining, but not joining, of the wagon in 110. Almost like they were planting a seed to jump on later, and post my flip claim they weren't really into it. Another one I need to ISO though.

Anyhoo, I have the benefit of replacing into a scummy slot (and that opening from TL the Legend was scummy - UneducatedGuesser's read is a reasonable one), but have a green role PM. So looking at how my wagon progressed, I would guess that those on it very early are likely to be town, those joining shortly after have a higher chance of being scum, especially those that try to inflate the wagon once it is already underway.

Similarly, I would suggest the first person questioning the wagon is probably coming from a town point of view, but those that follow have a bit of a question mark over them. Those that stick with it are tricky, so obviously it gets a bit messy and nothing is 100% objective here.

I don't get why you chose to look at your reads from the perspective of people on your wagon and those that questioned you. I get your position on Guesser but are you saying that you think scum pushed the wagon after Guesser or was that where you decided to start looking at people from?

I started from a place where I read my slot's entrance as pretty scummy, in fact I called for the elimination of something similar in Newbie 2014 (see ArthurConyl), so my first instinct was to do a wagon analysis. I think my excitement was a bit misplaced in hindsight though, for reasons mentioned above.

[Town looter]

More catchup...

So Taylor's ISO is a mix of vaguely anti-town, nothing-much-at-all and OMGUS, with the odd town tell/slip. In addition to me previously discussed responses to my slot (e.g. 234), I think the progression up to 282 feels really natural. Also I reckon her response to the fake hammer (side note: fuck fake hammers, why ar ethey are thing atm?) was very town - sure it could be faked, but occam's razor say's she's town.

UneducatedGuesser's ISO is a

bit less interesting

verbose snoozefest. While initially I thought their progression on my slot was pretty towny, there's a whole lot of null going on. I agree with 72 about the "...right now" thing (310) but other than that, not sure I fully buy 72's case. On balance, probably still TRing them, but my TR on 72 is far stronger, so would probably follow 72's lead if we need to consolidate before deadline.

Andy: You know what bugs me most about Andy? The fact he's so serious, and talks about how he's not funny,

then calls Taylor Tay Tay

. Something about that really grinds my gears. It's almost certainly NAI, but I am picking up a dose of confirmation bias because of it.

Anyhoo, in addition to the slight SR from my wagon analysis, the lack of humour/robot approach + plus long wall posts + lack of activity also pings - my style's a bit like Andy's and that's similar to how I played when I last rolled scum (year's ago, original account was Lootifer FYI).

Other bits and pieces: pretty LAMIST in 181; the info:analysis ratio is off the chart; and he seems to only be talking to 72, Echo, RC and Taylor (NAI, but potentially useful later on).

VOTE: Andycyca

That's E-1

Probably look at BBN and Flea next, although little point rushing things given gamestate.

[Town looter]

I think I know what our problem is: there's like 4-5 dull, verbose, old guys in here (myself included). As much as I find Echo and other high energy/spammy types mildly irritating (comes with the territory of being dull and verbose), it does keep things interesting...

[Town looter]

it is a strange sequence.

Yep, something weird is going on. Based on a naive look at what's happening I am pretty confident one scum is in [Echo, Flea, RC] with the other being in [Andy, UG, you (Taylor)].

[Town looter]

tl wanna come to UG with me

I'll compromise if it's UG or no elimination, but would rather Andy tbh.

[Town looter]

Hey guys, it's election day in NZ so I won't be able to post much, that and I have another game going on at the moment (which is unusual, I prefer to only play 1 at a time, but forgot to /out of the newbie queue).

it is a strange sequence.

Yep, something weird is going on. Based on a naive look at what's happening I am pretty confident one scum is in [Echo, Flea, RC] with the other being in [Andy, UG, you (Taylor)].

I think given Andy and 72 flips, Flea gets some townpoints for not jumping on the Andy wagon at E-1, although a bit WIFOM'y. And my TR of Taylor hasn't changed so my POE is probably something like [Echo, RC, UG], with Flea and Glitch in a null space that I am finding difficult to sort... there's a few things from these slots that ping both ways.

Also, hi Glitch. Let's see if we can do better than last time we were in this situation eh? lol.

ALso I have wanted to respond to 72 for, like 3 days or something. Then the fucker gets night killed... but for posterity:

Fixed up above postL

This doesn't feel right +++++.
UG is a town read of TL's. There are plenty of wagons and wagon suggestions flying left right and centre.
I know, I know: from town PoV, any kick other than yourself is a better than no kick. Yes, yes.

So basically he has
1. Voted for one of the largest, most likely to fly wagons, after hobbling together half a dozen super weak reasons (including his style of long posts - "hey guys, when im scum, I do long posts"),
into a bundle as reason for voting Andy.
2. Not really considered any of the other options, despite the multitiude of kick options, seems off that TL only really wants Andy kicked, then doesn't really care who.
It really just feels like he wants any kick whatsoever, doesn't really care which.

None of 72's reasoning here makes sense... there were 3 competing wagons ~10 hours out from deadline. I made it clear I wasn't going to get on one of them (Taylor), but compromise on an alternative which, yes I did TR, but he's answered his own question as to why I would do that. So he wanted me to make a vanity vote? Because that would've been helpful...

And then I supposedly have average reasons for voting Andy? No kidding, of course they were, it was D1. While I don't have all that much experience yet, I am still waiting to see an accurate D1 read in any game that was anything but blind luck; and anyone who claims to have good reasons is usually full of it, or scum.

[Town looter]

Hi guys, just prod dodging at this stage, apologies, real life has been busy this weekend. I will catch up tomorrow.

[Town looter]

Commmmmmmiiiing!

Just putting the kids to bed.

[Town looter]

Hey Glitch. Good to have you on board, and it looks like you are town too - slight meta read on him, while he is different than last game (seems a little more confident), the overly analytical approach fits with his previous town game (in addition to what looks like a pretty genuine read of the game state).

More incoming, bear with me, I am slow, especially when catching up a lot of stuff.

[Town looter]

TL, can you provide reads please, specifically who you think is scum? You've skirted around giving clear scumreads and mainly left it at a grouping of 3 people left after a PoE. Also, it kind of feels off for trying to defend yourself to 72 after they are dead.

Working on it my man, the wine is flowing, so I am about to overthink the shit out of this weird Echo/Glitch vs. Taylor/RC thing we have going.

Town Looter
Canadian:

Is Flea distancing from UG after my declaration of lockscum in case this results in a lunch and red flip?

Or is Flea down making the best case they can against UG?

I am struggling with both UG's and Flea's styles here: I read their posts, then I re-read their posts, then I am still not sure what their point/case is... It's a pain, because it's also making them hard to read.

So, um, I dunno?

only reason TL doesn't come in to hammer here is if scum buddy

town!TL doesnt hammer here.

theres no world where the lunch today shouldnt be either flea or echo. letting them both escape after everything theyve done since the hammer yesterday is beyond idiocy.

Yeah, I am not the type of person who hammers without a lot of hand-wringing, rabbit holes and paranoia (plus the occasional bit of analysis).

[Town looter]

So I was, following D1, reading Echo as slightly scummy null, to be sorted later - lots of early fluff and kind of a erratic approach, which, I have some recency bias pushing me towards scum reading them because I recently saw this style used very effectively as scum. Then their play during the end of D1 was either poor (i.e. anti-town) or scum motivated (as an aside I find it interesting Glitch didn't see this the same way, in our previous game together we tend to be on the same wavelength, but I am not reading anything into this for now).

Then they start this death-tunnel on RC. I tend to view death tunnels based on subjective information (i.e. posts) rather dimly, because even even the best cases have holes in them and should be, in my opinion, always treated as possible scenarios. So unless it was a good case, I would take this to generally be scum indicative. That being said,

it is a compelling case

.

There is a level of inconsistency in RC's play at the end of D1 which I see only two obvious reasons for:

• they are scum and happy to eliminate whoever, whenever, or
  
• they are fairly new to the game and intimidated by the demands this game can put on your brain and nerves, even as town

Given RC seems to be fairly experienced, I would suggest the former is more likely.

Then my top town read (Taylor, further compounded by posts like 543), claims RC to be town, and wants to eliminate Echo instead.

So tricky situation: I have this slightly scummy feeling about Echo (I'll freely admit it is partly driven by a bias caused by their play style), but they make a good case on an otherwise meh slot, but my town reading of Taylor contradicts this case. Too many "but"s for my liking in that sentence...

I haven't taken a good hard look at the Flea case yet, so will have a look at that before voting (or intenting... is that a word?) one way or the other - although I am not doing that while drinking, I don't have the requisite brain power to figure out UG/Flea posts right now.

[Town looter]

Ok i'm fence sitting isn't helping anyone. I like Taylor's logic regarding her solve, but not 100% sold (e.g. I am not 100% on the UG read), there is a world where the Taylor/Flea thing is a whole lot of TvT OMGUS.

One question I do have in this interaction is what's your read on RC, Flea?

Anyhoo... scenario time!

Say we eliminate RC and he flips town. That gives us a good lot of information on Echo/UG/Glitch/hammerer, of which I think Echo would be guiltiest party here given the death tunnel. We would be in ELO, but I think we would be in a pretty good ELO based on Taylor's solve.

Conversely, we instead follow Taylor's lead, and whoever we eliminate out of Echo or Flea flips town. Similar situation (ELO), and if we flip Echo, a similarly good position (town!Echo implies scum!RC). However, I don't want to flip Flea, not because I think they are super towny, but because I think that puts us in a more difficult ELO scenario.

So it comes down to: who's D1 end was scummier? I still don't really know, both cases are solid. Since the decision doesn't matter

too

much in the scheme of things, I am inclined to go with the wagon that, worst case, has at least one town on it (which if I had to bet would be Glitch given 72's original read of the slot, and my own read of their entrance).

Intent to hammer: RC

Claim time.

[Town looter]

ebwop: Ok,

my

fence sitting*

[Town looter]

I haven't done a decent re-think of scenarios based on flips, but my top TRs are (were?) Glitch and Taylor (although this is very stale now, and needs revisiting...), so I am with Flea in that UG should be up the top.

[Town looter]

I am about head out for the weekend and may not have much, if any, time to post in the next couple of days (have family in town).

I am happy to claim now, if required. I will check back in in a couple of hours to see what the consensus is.

[Town looter]

Yeah I like popcorn given we all seem to want a different order so a consensus is going to be neigh on impossible.

This whole thing is a bit weird, but I’m gonna leave my analysis/thinking until the MC is done.

[Town looter]

VT

[Town looter]

Taylor next I guess.

[Town looter]

Hey glitch, you know some people sleep right? Asking me to claim twice in 5 hours [with the second one with added emphasis] isn't going to magically make me appear. Someones keen...

I don't mind claiming first, Taylors going to twist it anyway.

Claim: Vanilla Townie

N1: Slept.
N2: Had cocoa, slept.

Next Up: UneducatedGuesser

As an aside, is that a reference to the diary of a wombat children’s book? I love that book if so.

[Town looter]

Guys sorry I have been AFK, catching up tonight, although to be fair, its only like a page lol.

[Town looter]

Also LOL to people worrying where Tay was in the massclaim when she already claimed D1.

Lol...

This is why I don't play more than one game at once. Also why you making me read that (or more importantly, try and understand it) bro, i've literally been knee deep in toddler spew all weekend. HAVE YOU NO HUMANITY?!

[Town looter]

I think TL's most likely. RC and TL kind of passively lightly SRed each other through the game, but generally avoided each other beyond that while TL wavered around and RC focused on Echo. Plus the way TL fence sat on declaring intent on RC, then only did it a couple of hours before the thread as a whole became aware of RC's replace-out... I dunno, something doesn't sit right there for me. I was pinged by TL wavering on that at the time, especially since he had RC in his early D2 PoE before Echo went all-in. (along with Echo and myself, who were both seen as fairly obvious targets by significant portions of the plist at the time. Slipping your scumbuddy into a solve like that if you don't think there's any real threat to him isn't exactly unheard of).

Yeah that's a fair analysis, although I did have RC in my POE before D1 close based on a naïve read of that situation (by naïve I mean like the motivations of people at the time, i.e. limited). But in my defense, I am a persistent over-analyser and fence-sitter - it's really not AI for me (much like activity... lol).

Based on this post, and your other recent ones, I am inclined to think you town. The way you showed humility in 748 reads as town for me, I think the scum response here is externally focused (i.e. defensive/aggressive).

Glitch is town based on a meta read. While he doesn't fit quite the mould of the previous game I played with him, he is taking a similar approach, but with a little more confidence. It's the progression from one game to another than makes me confident he's town (can provide more detail on this read if required).

That leaves my POE [Flea, Taylor]. Taylor is going to take some time to analyse as a) I town read her earlier and b) she is active and has lots of content. I need to ISO and dig through RC interactions. Flea, well, Flea I honestly haven't put a lot of thought into, as (previously mentioned) we seem to be on different wavelengths.

Hopefully I have some time to take a look tomorrow. My first thought is Flea, but that's largely because others seem to be SRing them, where as I am now starting to think Taylor has very subtlety pocketed me and the paranoia is creeping in.

[Town looter]

Ok, sorry guys. Life has been hectic, either I catch up and live up to my previous promises today or I will ask to be replaced. I feel partly responsible for this game stalling.

[Town looter]

Ok... I've tried rereading this a few times and my brain is not coming up with anything new. So...

@Tay: I know why Flea, why Glitch though? What are you seeing on that slot?

@TL and Glitch: You've both said that you've meta-read each other as town, can you both detail why, and how much confidence you have in it? (Hopefully you both get some time to get into this)

@Flea: You've said plenty about everyone else left in game, what's your read on TL, if you don't mind?

Very quickly, and without going into the thread: the bulk of my meta read is based on what I think is his town-tell (which will soon be null based on me calling it out... but I think not right now): he subscribes numbers and precision to things. First thing he did upon arrival was draw up a table of scum points and town points. He did something similar (a crazy VC[over]A with percentage chance of being scum as the result) in the game I recently played with him. The reason this stands out for me is I am an analytical person myself and I find it quite funny how precise his numbers are (very likely false precision of course).

That being said a couple of things you guys (gender neutral use of term) pointed out recently pinged a little, so I am going to give him a re-read after I have done Flea and Taylor ISOs.

[Town looter]

Ok, just went through Taylor ISO, with RC folded in there. I have a bunch of notes which I can type up tomorrow, but for now I feel fairly confident I know where last scum is (pending Glitch and Flea re-read).

Watch out UG, there's some more non-committal maybe-maybe-maybe logic coming up

So two possible scenarios surround Taylor:

• They are town and read Echo and RC horribly wrong, or
  
• They are scum and are outrageously audacious and very proficient at scum theatre

I think it is the former (although I am only fairly confident, not 100%); and the reason why is their interactions with RC: They are brazen in their alignment and pushing of the same target (Echo), it's almost like they are trying to buddy each other (examples: 192/194 and 349, and shit if they are a scum team posts 527 and 529 are genuinely adorable). I may be newish, but this seems just too much in terms of associations - surely scum would be nervous of these linkages and instead try to distance?

That being said, Taylor

has

been pushing town, often pushing very hard, and resisted the RC wagon...

Right now (unless someone wants to chime in and say "dude, those associations are a straight up scum tells") I think Taylor most likely town.

Working on previous reads, that leaves Flea. I want to read Flea and Glitch and maybe even UG if I have time before I vote/hammer, but if deadline was five minutes away, that's where i'd be voting.

[Town looter]

i'm sleepy, don't want to fall asleep and no hammer today
VOTE: andy

this post is literally all we need to nail echo as scum. town never hammers when momentum is building on a new wagon. echo didnt want flea to be the lunch. flea and echo are refusing to give reads on each other. notice how they ignore each other. theyre classic scumbuddies.

RC is town.

I'm trying to sort how to read this now. Are TS's reads just that bad on Echo and RC or is she scum trying to throw shade on Echo and protect RC?

I'm finding this post super weird.

Like isn't this literally what I outlined in my previous post?

[Town looter]

I ISO'd Flea, but I am still really struggling to get a decent read there. There's nothing overtly scummy, but nothing overtly townie either. But if scum they're not really playing it safe, as they have gone on attack against several people.

Only a couple of things really ping:

• 255 could be a pre-planned push/scum theater with RC - the case is weak, and the push just doesn't feel genuine.
  
• In 432 they refer to their scum reads like targets (second to last para), this could be a very minor scum slip, but it can also come from town (hell, I think I am guilty of phrasing something in similar way)

Overall, very null.

So one way or another we have someone adept at hiding, and with 8 hours to go, this isn't a good place to be.

[Town looter]

Shit maybe Glitch is scum.

[Town looter]

Is anyone around? I want to test my thinking.

[Town looter]

So Glitch makes a series of posts about Taylor and her interactions with RC, which I find super weird because it's kinda the opposite of what I said based on the same information, literally like 4 posts earlier. This triggers my paranoia because based on experience Glitch and I think in similar ways.

So I went digging:

Very towny entrance, and does their overly analytical thing which fits with my Town!Glitch meta, solid TR at this point, even when I look back over it. But one ping upon re-read, which I think someone else pointed out, was where RC was in their reads list: right smack in nullsville.

However, in 631 they mention how red Taylor will be if RC flips scum. Which shows they were well aware of how much Taylor was defending RC and pushing town (Echo) at this point of the game.

But if you compare that to the recent batch of posts where Glitch sort of acts like this Taylor/RC thing is new to them after a re-read. After digging up a bunch of quotes, Glitch eventually moves to Taylor.

This makes me think Scum!Glitch was originally planning on bringing Taylor to ELO and busting out the case they just made, but for whatever reason wants to get rid of Taylor now. Or maybe this was always the plan since there was signs of convergence on a Flea elimination, and they wanted to jump off for town cred? Either way, there's a major inconsistency here.

A few other minor things also stand out:

• I think Glitch has tried to pocket me (and was successful given I have been TRing them since they came in) by returning my meta read on them early on, i.e. 643
  
• Back to 631, up until this point they apparently had a strong TR on Taylor, and kinda shows this is still there in 623 as they side with Taylor in the Taylor v Flea thing, so the progression of Glitch SRing Taylor seems odd.
  
• There seems to be lots of theatrics and flippant behaviour which seems out of character as I previously saw a very logical/methodical Glitch. e.g. 669

VOTE: Glitch

I'll set my alarm and try and have a quick read on my phone just in case anything changes between now and deadline, but for now I think Glitch is by far the best elimination option.

[Town looter]

Also I don't want to eliminate Taylor today. While they

could

be scum, I think occam's razor says they are town. Definitely worth revisiting tomorrow though.

UG is pretty solid town based on today's posting.

Flea is null, but would probably be my second choice for an elimination today because of the interactions they have had with other players, and therefore their flip (even if town) would be very useful for whoever is alive tomorrow.

[Town looter]

Alarm just went off. Had a quick slim but haven’t really read detail.

Optimal play here is eliminate right? Like a miselim is better than a no elim yeah?

[Town looter]

Eh well I’m not going to overthink it at 5am. If you need a hammer I am ok voting Flea, but not Taylor.

[Town looter]

Ok, so the obvious answer is Flea.

But then WIFOM kicks in and well, yeah.

[Town looter]

This is shit, because dead townies reads, NK analysis, my own reads: they all say Flea.

If it looks like a duck, swims like a duck, and quacks like a duck, then it probably is a duck.

But then my paranoia takes me down some philosophical WIFOM rabbit hole of "That's exactly what UG

would

do!".

Good news is we have a bit of time to come to a decision. I am going to sleep on this and revisit tomorrow.

PS: Sorry Glitch bro, my bad

[Town looter]

Wow reads of me are really all over the place aren't they... you've both had me as town and as scum at various points but mostly null...

I don't think I have ever had a firm/confident read on you based on your posting/interactions. That is still as much the case now as it was earlier. So maybe I was incorrect to use the quack like a duck thing... but that being said my overall point stands:

We now have a much smaller POE, bunch of alignments confirmed and night kills to muse over. Obviously everything is subject to game theory/WIFOM (especially NKs), but a naive or simple look at the situation, including my previously held read of UG (i.e. I red him as towny where as I red you as null), suggests you are scum.

BUT, and it's a massive but, UG also knows this. So you could be town, UG scum, and he has set up a scenario where you look guilty hoping I will vote you and he comes in and hammers to win the game.

I seem to find myself in ELo/MELo (aka LyLo/MyLo) quite a bit, and tbh I am yet to play one successfully (I have been eliminated once, made the wrong call as the deciding vote once, and been endgamed without voting in a 5 player ELo), so my paranoia levels are understandably high.

[Town looter]

At this stage I am still favouring (like 70/30) Flea as scum, the rationale being my town-lean on UG (see 772) and Taylor and Glitch's final reads.

I am not factoring in NK motivations at all (too much WIFOM).

[Town looter]

Umm, hello?

[Town looter]

All good, not often I am the most active player lol.

We still have a bit of time, but it will disappear quickly, especially if you guys are both based in the US (I figure you might be somewhat distracted this week...).

[Town looter]

On one hand, TL has been TRed by a significant amount of players who have flipped town and that's a consideration. On the other hand, said players all tried to off each other before flipping town, so maybe their reads aren't all that crispy.

Lol crispy.

Even in the face of that, I started TRing Flea to apoint during D3 in the face of dissent on the grounds that I felt RC's play during D1 was incompatible with a Flea scumteam and liking Flea's D3 content more, but it's possible I'm kidding myself on how possible that whole deal was to actually happen and RC's been playing me from the grave.

Hmmm. Part of me is thinking this is scum!you keeping their options open, but mostly I think this is genuine town paranoia.

I am fairly meh on the original logic as I don't think that flash wagon had much of a chance (I think there was only a couple of hours to deadline?), and if it had and flipped Scum!Flea then RC jumping on when they did would have bought stacks of town cred.

It's exceedingly arguable that Tay was the only kill scum-Flea could make just because of how tunnelled Tay had been on them for most of the game, making it significantly harder for them to get town into cross-kill territory if Tay's alive in 3p. This of course is where I question how cute TL would get in this spot if it's him, especially when leaving me alive is keeping alive the one person who HAS maintained some level of red-read on their slot instead of letting town tunnel town and picking the bones. This is where glasses of wine start getting poured. I hate wine, but I'm having trouble reading the kill any other way.

Eh, for me, NK analysis is pointless. Sure Scum!Flea only ever kills Taylor, but Scum!you kills Taylor as well - if nothing else you kill Taylor

because

Scum!Flea only ever kills Taylor. From a Town!UG point of view, the same logic applies to me as well, so I wouldn't read too much into it.

Now that I too have kept my options open (although I am still 70/30, maybe even 75/25 now as I think UGs town case, while weak and they are now backing out of it, originally comes from a town mindset), I am going to go to bed and hope Flea comes in with some content overnight.

[Town looter]

Quick post as I have been busy (and distracted with US election, shit is crazy!).

I will respond to you both tomorrow.

[Town looter]

Also what the fuck is spoon level?!

[Town looter]

lol

[Town looter]

TL, when you replaced in you said your own slot was pretty scummy, given your predecessor had only essentially made 6 posts, what was it that was so bad for you?

UG: Why so long to respond to my counter points btw? you made 9 posts before finally responding to me despite being prompted twice and responding to another post inbetween that?

It was purely based on the entrance, which, from my experience, seems to be a place where newbies often make unintended slips.

As others have pointed out, TL the Legend's first post has a lot of concern about their perceived behaviour rather than their actual behaviour, which to me is slightly scummy. Very anecdotal, but I have read someone correctly (the Vexossa slot was scum) based on their entrance before (while also reading someone incorrectly for pretty much the same thing, in the same game... lol).

[Town looter]

My major issue with you is that almost everything about your play feels too careful. I don't know your experience level outside of MS, but I HAVE read your games here and that care certainly seems to just be your style. That said, it works well with either alignment, so Glitch's first-hand meta on you is applicable, but without some experience of you playing for the other team, it doesn't have the punch it probably would have for me, plus meta's almost as annoying as NKA for me to use tbh, so I had a lot of trouble assigning the same value to it that Glitch did.

Yep, that's fair. Meta is pretty useless in this situation. Only exception I would suggest is when you can empathise (rather than sympathise) with the person (i.e. you think on the same wavelength, play the same way), so you can sort of estimate how someone might behave as scum. This is why Glitch and I initially meta read each other as town - we are often on a similar wavelength and have similar play styles.

Given I don't think we are on the same wavelength, this exception doesn't apply so you are right to discount meta.

For me and whoever out of you guys is town, it comes down to who we think has played more in the interests of town overall, and this is where I am starting to see a distinction - you seem to be much more open and transparent with reads and much more interested in little things that may or may not help solve the game. I don't see this same behaviour from Flea.

[Town looter]

Also what the fuck is spoon level?!

Google spoon theory. I prefer the term "spell slots" myself.

Off-topic: Brilliant. I have never heard of this analogy, but I am definitely going to use it.

[Town looter]

Yep, I'm in a similar place.

Although, this situation does seem too easy. Paranoia is creeping in and making me doubt the obvious. So I too am going to take another look tomorrow.

Hopefully the slow motion train wreck that is american politics right now has settled somewhat, because that shit is distracting.

[Town looter]

Having a final read now.

[Town looter]

VOTE: Flea the Magician

Holy fuckity fuck fuck fuck.

Shout out to Taylor and Glitch for Scum MVPs.

[Town looter]

Oh and I don't like to troll. I am 100% a merdery bastard.

[Town looter]

Ok, read the game again, thought for awhile, slept on it (well, napped), now I'm here.

Comes down to this, for me. Over the course of the game, I just don't think Flea's actually tried to scumhunt. Every case they've made, outside their initial "it's either Tay or Flea, they're scum together" solve which pinged me in the first place, has been a counter-attack on someone coming at them first. The entire game, they've been reactive. They also haven't done much to volunteer reads, only answering when asked (and sometimes not even then, depending on who's asking.) and even then, in a lot of cases, giving bare minimum answers with little to no detail. The effort has been concentrated on defending themselves and attacking people back when attacked, anything beyond that just doesn't feel like it's been there.

I may have had moments reading TL as off, but at the end of the day, TL has tried to contribute reads and respond with consideration and detail to questions, even if he hasn't always exhibited confidence in his reads and answers, they feel earnest, as if he's trying to actually solve the game. It's a difference that tips the scales for me, and I don't think there's anything that'll swing me back the other way.

VOTE: Flea

This just feels like it's the right way to go, to me.

TL, bro, if it's you and I just threw this, GG, you earned it. If, however, I'm right, all I can really say at this point is trust your gut.

If it makes you feel any better I was almost certainly going to make the exact same case you made on Flea and vote them ahead of you good folk voting.

[Town looter]

Yeah I was careful to avoid, and steer conversation away from that phase of play (and you in general). But it didn’t really head in that direction.

Also I can honestly say I expected the invite to the mafia thread after signing up as a replacement and taking a quick look at the thread.

[Town looter]

Damnit TL now I will be paranoid of you. XD

Both you and Taylor carried the last part of the game for me.

Althou 72 knew I was scum early from spoilers in the dead thread - I don’t think it was as easy/obvious as he made it out to be. Knowing someone is scum makes spotting scummy things reaaallllly easy (I should know, I saw scum in every single thing I posted, waiting for the noose