Newbie 2061 | Views of Tallinn | Town wins

[Lukewarm]

Hello all!

I am going to take some time to read through the thread and I will try to build up a wall post of my thoughts as I work through it.

[Lukewarm]

What're your reads as of right now? It'll be good to have the information around, should you end up flipping green today- and even if you don't get elimmed, it'll be good to have your thoughts on the books before the days end.

How many votes am I at..? I'll claim if I need to, but i'm not sure if I need to now.. or if i should wait a bit longer..?

I think that t3 and vfp are scum.

I am still working my way through Day 1, so I would say maybe hold off a bit.

Speaking of, I don't know if my predecessor has a vote out, so UNVOTE: .

I'll touch base once I am through all of Day 1

[Lukewarm]

I promise I will get caught up today, but I am in another game that is 1.5 hours away from their deadline. I will be able to focus more on this one after that passes haha

[Lukewarm]

Okay, I have just reached the end of Day 1, and also saw that there was no kill during the night (!!) I plan on making a couple posts, first my general notes that I made just as I read through. Leaving all of them there, even if they chaged throughout my read of the day, just to share my general progression of thoughts.

Then I am going to highlight something that I think was actually a scumslip

Then I will share my over all read list of every player as of, the end of Day 1.

I would like to preface this, that these are all my gut reactions to my first read through, and my opinions are likely to update some as I go back and look at some ISOs

Anyways, my read through notes:

Spoiler: post 0-100

• Post 12, Meuh asking for off site experience, this is a good look imo
  
• Post 22, Town points for Norwegian - scum players don't normally like to alienate other players this much, ditto for 27 and 31.
  
• The Not_Mafia entrance: I hate it. Like it is not a way of playing this game that I enjoy, but I also know from experience that he enters every game this way, so it is NAI
  
• Post 67, Norwee's absolute turn around on Not Mafia is a bit baffling to me haha. Not sure what it indicates, but it definitely stood out.
  
• General Comment: Not getting great vibes from Sama, but not for anything I can pin down
  
• Post 84, Marcistar also asking for prior mafia experience
  
• Post 85, love this post from Meuh. Lots of detail, also helping Tori not get defensive over a RVS. Really seems like she wants people on track to actually scum hunt. Scum would normally let something like Tori's uncertainty of why she was voted just sit. Very pro-town post
  
• Post 87 Bad vibes from Tori. List of 3 scum reads with no reasoning, and 0 town reads. Seems like a new!scum type of post
  
• Post 93, Pear. Making zero content posts is a pretty standard scum tell, but announcing that you are making a zero content post... not sure how to take that one lol
  
• Post 95 Tori did come back with an explanation from post 87, but I dont really care for their logic tbh

Spoiler: Posts 100-200

• Post 100 Meuh again with the town plays, Pressuring the quietest player to try and get content from them
  
• Post 102 Even after being called out for lack of posts, he is still offering very little content. "holding back for now as most of my reads are fairly weak" comes across to me like, "I am scum and unsure of what reads to make to seem most town". On Day 1, town is mostly playing blind, trying to voice a lot of thoughts trying to get responses, build content. Scum is trying to cherry pick Day 1 posts so that they can come across as town / distance from their partner, but not actually incriminate them / pocket other players. So town players are generally more open with thier reads on Day 1, while scum want to make sure they are making the right reads before they post.
  
• Post 103 + 104, Meuh read my mind
  
• Post 105 I am really not liking Tori's reasonings here. They don't like meuh's early town reads because there wasn't a good backing for them, but on the flip side they put out their 3 scum reads without good backing.
  
• Post 119, Bad vibes, cant articulate why, but I feel them
  
• Post 130, Norweigianboy reads my mind on Tori
  
• Post 146 Meuh trying their damnedest to keep the thread alive and full of content. They are a pretty strong town read for me atm
  
• General Comment: No good vibes coming from Sama
  
• Post 174, Catboi repeatedly bringing up Ink's first post, feels very disengenuous to me. His first post of the game, means we were in the RVS stage at that point, and he did not even vote on it. His first vote was on Catboi, and then catboi tried to push back based on Ink's first post of the game. Seems defensive
  
• Post 187, Tori is once again posting only a read list with no logic. Not super helpful for town
  
• Post 189, getting a real bad feeling from the way Catboi has been interacting with the thread so far, he just does not feel like he wants to help in the scum hunting.

Spoiler: Post 200 to end of Day 1

• General Comment: Just hit post
  224 231 234
  259, and that is a lot of people being prodded day 1
  
• Post 239 Catboi with some reads, definitely helping my read on him, I am coming around to the idea of Catboi possibly being town now
  
• Post 255, Hm. Early Day 1 "Not Mafia being a troll is better then any thing else I have to go on" is a reasonable RVS, but 250+ posts in, it seems a bit weak of an argument. Like you should have something to go on, which is better then "but not mafia is a troll," which is better then another blind vote. Negative town points for Meuh.
  
• Post 266 This is why Meuh lost town points for the NM vote, but catboi didn't. he is at least making the case that NM might legitimately be scum this game.
  
• General Comment: Norwee has put a lot of work into defending NM, like a lot. Which is strange considering their opening. If NM ever flips red, I will become suspicious of Norwegianboy
  
• Post 289 Catboi makes a good point. There were only 2 votes on NM, that makes norwee's strong defense even more odd
  
• Post 305 Nice post by Pear. Gaining some town points imo
  
• General Comment: Overall vibe from Norwee has been steadily dropping.
  
• General Comment: General vibe from Catboi also dropping, but they cannot be partners. Currently have them as an either/or scum read
  
• Post 376, Pear has lost their town points. Not liking the mental gymnastics he jumped through in this post to shade Norwee
  
• Post 381, Meuh losing more town points. "I think he is scum, because he is scum reading me" is a really weak stance to take, especially given the fact that she clearly has some mafia experience
  
• Post 401, Incredibly, Meuh is losing even more town points. They started Day 1 building incredible amounts of town cred imo, but by this point, they really are giving off the vibe "almost any vote out is fine by me"
  
• Post 419 Major alarm bells going off! This one deserves its own post to talk about.

[Lukewarm]

I think I may have just caught a scum making a slip during my read through!

I would like everyone to compare PearfoClubs posts 124 and post 419. I think you might find some harsh inconsistencies.

I actually was explicitly suspicious of someone in my last game because they were super helpful. I thought it was them trying to steer suspicions away from themselves and appear nice and helpful. Turns out it was just a helpful person.
Shame we lost because of that suspicion, but live and learn, right?

Basically, he claims, that in his last game, he scum read someone for being helpful, but they were actually

town

, and therefore lost the game.

This means that people are, at least to some degree, suspecting him less because he's giving gameplay advice and assistance. My last game a very helpful and nice player that I townread early on turned out to be scum. Perspectives get tainted by appreciating things like that

Basically, he claims, that in his last game, he townread someone for being helpful, but they were actually

scum

, and therefore lost the game.

Hopefully, everyone sees the discrepancy here. So it seems to me, like he was making up a story to try and get people to agree with his push at the time, and did not realize that he had already made up the exact opposite story. This reeks of scum trying to manipulate town.

I would very much like to go ahead and drop a vote here on Pear, but I am going to get fully caught up before I cast any votes. I am going to step a way for a bit to take a break, but I will be caught up before I go to bed tonight!

[Lukewarm]

To put names to the people you're talking about, I was suspicious of Word because he was publicly helpful to everyone early on- in particular, telling people how to scumhunt. I suspected he was scum for that reason.
Notscience was nice and encouraging to me specifically, and I ended up liking him more than I should have. I missed scumtells that were obvious in retrospect.
The last three players were myself, Word and Notscience.
Here's the thread.
viewtopic.php?f=50&t=83818&start=1600

Hmm, I will take this into consideration as I continue to build my final reads, but to be up front with you, I am not a player who is interested in reading through other games. If someone can't convince me in thread, then they are missing the entire purpose of this game imo. So noted, your explanation is that you were referencing two different players from the same game.

[Lukewarm]

This is such a cheap attempt at a "gotcha!" case. I really hate it. What reason would pear have to lie about their last game here?

I did not think that the goal was ever to lie about a prior game. I felt like the goal was "let me convince people to listen to my push, by giving a personal anecdotal example of why this logic should/should not be applied." And then he did that twice, using contradictory stories. Which feels to me like manipulation. And manipulation is a hard scum tell imo.

I wanted to explain my reading of it a bit more, but I am still not caught up (but working on it), so I am still holding out judgement until then.

[Lukewarm]

Here is my final read list as of the end of Day 1. Then I will work my way through Day 2.

(My strong town read tier is empty)

Meuh

- Meuh was one tier up as of like 80% of the way through Day 1, like almost every post from the beginning of the day just screamed town at me, but they did fall slightly at the end of the day because they came across like they were okay with almost every elim option presented

Not Mafia

- They were yellow, with a note :"if Norwee flips red/green move Not_mafia one tier in that direction" so now they are hanging out here

Marcistar

- I have had mixed reactions to them throughout day 1. They have defenitly been green at various points for me, but they have kind of bounced back and forth between green and yellow..

Samawoodo

- I have gotten mostly negative reactions to their posts, but mainly in a "gut feeling" kind of way, but I did not really spot anything I could pin point as to why I felt that way
(These are the two who I think have the highest potential to move once I do ISOs on them. This is mainly a "need to give them a second look tier atm)

Norwegianboy

- this is where he was for me at the end of the day. I probably would have been on his wagon tbh

Catboi

- Over all not a good vibe from this guy. For the first half of the day, seemed too hesitant to voice their opinion. And when they finally did voice their opinion, they landed on Not_Mafia which seems like the easy way out for a scum imo.

Tori/T3

- to be fair to T3, they mainly get this ranking from the Tori post, but T3 did not really give me anything to pull them back up from where Tori left him

Pearofclubs

- they were a slight scum lean (same as norwegianboy and catboi) even before I read the posts I pointed out, but once I noticed it, it really screamed to me "he is trying to manipulate me" which says scum to me, so he dropped down here.

(I put pearofclubs at the bottom before he responded, and this is supposed to be "where I stood at the end of day 1 anyways. I am going to mull over his response as I read through Day 2).

Looking at it, I am actually surprised how many names I have as red/orange. I feel like I generally end up going the other way with too many town reads. This leaves me with much to think about moving forward.

[Lukewarm]

[*]Post 381, Meuh losing more town points. "I think he is scum, because he is scum reading me" is a really weak stance to take, especially given the fact that she clearly has some mafia experience

That wasn't the stance I was taking in that post though? I acknowledge in the post itself I

dislike

my mentality against Norwee because of potential bias I have due to the appeal of OMGUSing. My gut was screaming that Norwee was scum, but my brain was against it, partially because Norwee was scumreading me in the first place.
Feeling less good about me in the second half of day 1 is reasonable though, I hit a lack of motivation and confidence (partially due to irl stuff, partially because of the less active gamestate, partially just cause it's like that for no real reason sometimes) which leads to a shift in mentality from "Let's get scum elimed!" to "Let's just get this day over with and end up with a decent outcome", if that hadn't happened I think I would've played the whole thing pretty differently

Don't feel too bad, you still ended up as the top of my town read list apparently. It was more of a "in the first half of the day, you reached a, in my mind this person is 100% town" and that second half of the day just moved you down to "probably town" haha

But I still felt like mentioning, because that it was enough for me to make a slight adjustment to my read of you. And I am trying to get like 18 game days worth of thoughts and reactions out there, so people can have as clear of a picture of where I am at, as they have of everyone else in the game.

[Lukewarm]

Okay, I am officially caught up, but also desperately in need of some sleep, so I don't think I can work through too long of a post rn, but am more then happy to elaborate more tomorrow. Basically VOTE: pearofclubs

I was already suspicious of him Day 1, even before the anecdotal inconsistency thing, like I had him in my scum reads list at least by post 376. And then, after I had him in my scum pile already, I saw the anecdotal inconsistency thing, and then after that I saw the Norwegianboy flip, both of which don't help my read of him. And then reading through today, I'm still getting a feeling that he is scum. I wish I was not so tired, because I really would like to get into the nitty gritty of his posts for Day 2, but I just need sleep at this point.

Spoiler:

I have mulled over his "I was referring to two different people from the same game" defense, and I don't think it got rid of this feeling for me. It just feels like he was typing those posts with the mind set of "what could manipulate the thread" as opposed to "how can we win as town." This is partly because the anecdote#2 (offered in post 419) would have actually made more sense in the first post (124) then anecdote #1 did originally, but either would have been acceptable to make the point he was trying to make. But then in the second post, anecdote #1 just would not have worked, it would have actually made the opposite point he was trying to make. So it feels like anecdote #1 is real, but when he was typing the second post, he thought "hmmm, my anecdote does not quite lend to the point I am trying to make, so I am going to tweak it slightly so that I can make the point I want to make." Which just feels super scummy to me. So this is where I am ending on the issue, but I don't really plan on pushing this angle any more atm, because I feel like he is scum even without it.

[Lukewarm]

Hopefully, everyone sees the discrepancy here. So it seems to me, like he was making up a story to try and get people to agree with his push at the time, and did not realize that he had already made up the exact opposite story. This reeks of scum trying to manipulate town.

This is a really good post and a good spot.
If you read the context to Pear's posts they are even worse. It's the before and after having NorwegianboyEE as scum.
Just adapting the comment to suit their agenda.

It's not, both of those thing can be true

Looking at the context is why I did not buy his counter argument that both were true. First here is a break down of the two anecdotes:

Spoiler: Anecdote 1

In his last game, he scum read someone for being helpful, but they were actually

town

, and therefore he lost the game.

Spoiler: Anecdote 2

In his last game, he town read someone for being helpful, but they were actually

scum

, and therefore he lost the game.

Now I am pretty sure that Anecdote 1 is a true anecdote, and Anecdote 2 is a false one that Pear made up to push a particular narrative.

Here is the context for 124. Marci town reads NorwegianBoy for being town, and Pear is trying to make the point "being helpful is NAI" and he tells Anecdote 1. But imo, if BOTH anecdotes are true, then why would he not have used Anecdote 2? That anecdote would prove the point better, but because anecdote 1 kind-of-sort-of works, he did not feel the need to lie. In general, scum tries to avoid lying when possible.

And next the context of post 419. Norwegianboy is under fire, and Pear is trying to make the argument "Norwegianboy is scum, despite him being helpful earlier, and we should hammer him." Suddenly, anecdote 1 doesn't work to push that narrative. If anything, telling the true anecdote 1, would indicate that we should not have voted Norwegian boy, because in that story, the person turned out to be town all along. So Pear, who wants to make the case that we should vote out Norwegianboy, creates the false anecdote 2, adjusting the first one to make it fit within the new narrative he is trying to push. And he just did not remember that he has already shared the original story, like 8 irl days earlier.

[Lukewarm]

No one does this, even as scum

No one makes up personal anecdotes, to try and win an argument? Like that is a perfectly valid strategy to win an argument.

I know that I have made up stories when scum, and from my own experience, if I am going to make up an anecdote, I tend to start my lie from something that is close to the truth.

Spoiler:

see what I did there

[Lukewarm]

I would prefer we vote pear, but am willing to vote catboi is no one else wants to follow me in the pear wagon

[Lukewarm]

I don't have a scum read on VFP atm. I currently have them as a null read. I would need some good arguments built around him being scum before I would be willing to vote for him.

[Lukewarm]

posts will tell you regardless of time zone, the most recent one is just over 22 hours

AH WAIT DOES IT ACTUALLY- i thought it was just a still time, does it move :0

Anyways I see meuhs debating on voting me, and I got alot of hw to do today so I think i'll just claim because idk if I would be able to come back before that.

I'm tracker, i visited meuh and she wasn't visiting anyone.

User Control Panel > Board Preferences > Set Timezone

Ahhh ty i've been wondering so long.. daylight savings confused me so much in my recent games LOL

Everyone probably knows this, but it is a newbie game, so might as well make sure; you can counter claim this even if you are not the tracker. A tracker and a cop cannot be in the same game, so a cop in addition to a tracker, can counter claim this

[Lukewarm]

I cannot for the life of me, understand why everyone is so resistant to a pear vote. Like no one has made a town case for him that I have seen, and he just feels so scummy to me (even ignoring the anecdote thing)

I am going to come back in a few hours, and do an iso of him again.

[Lukewarm]

I did an iso on Pear for Day 2, and he just is not scum hunting.

Spoiler:

Day 2 starts on 4/19
441 - empty post
450 - wishywashy scum read on T3, into "I am going to need to do another careful reread before I am comfortable taking any stance."
480 - empty post with a promise of more to come
495 - empty post
505 - fully defensive post, still no scum hunting, but once again, a promis of more to come.

So after 3 irl days into Day 2, he has offered not put out anything towards scum hunting, just promises that its coming

516 - This is mostly a defensive post, but he does finally give us his reads. And he apparently has reads on exactly two players: marci=scum and catboi-town. I would like to point out that he made this post after a couple people had already voted for her, and it was the wagon that currently had the most momentum
541 / 542 / 543 - 3 mostly empty posts back to back, there is a light attempt to link marci and NM
557: a full post trying to link marci and NM
571: further post trying to link marci and NM
573: mild shade on Marci
576: defensive post
582: defensive post

So all I am seeing is a player, who avoided making any content for 3 days, then finally made a stance of "the person whose wagon is currently gaining steam is scum." There is very little attempts being made to analyze other players. Out of 8 players, he has 1 scum read and 1 town read. And that has held all the way to the deadline.

And the vast majority of his posts have been empty posts. And the second most frequent, are defensive posts.

I just am not seeing an effort from him to try and find scum. But then multiple people are coming to his defense. Can people explain their town reads on Pear?

[Lukewarm]

I'm the doc, I was on Pear, now vote VFP or catboi

Interesting.

I'm going to give it some time in case someone CCs.

I also need to rethink, which of those two I would prefer. I was already leaning towards Catboi, but that was partly because I saw them as a potential partner for Pear, and now I am not sure. We have all day today, so I'm gonna take a couple hours to think about this.

[Lukewarm]

UNVOTE:

[Lukewarm]

Would scum push for a Pear elim considering what N_M just revealed?

They probably thought they were jailed with all the JK talk at day start

Maybe, but they would have known if we had a jailkeeper or a doctor the moment marci claimed tracker.

peedit:marci snipped me

[Lukewarm]

peedit:marci snipped me

I mean Meuh

[Lukewarm]

Would scum push for a Pear elim considering what N_M just revealed?

They probably thought they were jailed with all the JK talk at day start

Maybe, but they would have known if we had a jailkeeper or a doctor the moment marci claimed tracker.

peedit:marci snipped me

I mean I don't think they'd just hop off the wagon immediately after Marci's claim, that'd look worse than just pushing on Pear

True.

I think I've decided that between vfp and catboi, I'm leaning catboi.

Still gonna give vfp and catboi a chance to cc, which would be interesting to say the least

[Lukewarm]

I'm not CC here.
So Pear is actually town then. Catboi is flipping red here.

Okay, I think that means everyone has posted since Not_Mafia's claim, except catboi.

I'll go ahead and VOTE: catboi

[Lukewarm]

I'm not CC here.
So Pear is actually town then. Catboi is flipping red here.

Okay, I think that means everyone has posted since Not_Mafia's claim, except catboi.

I'll go ahead and VOTE: catboi

Marci and Pear haven't
Considering they're both being cleared as town their input would be nice
UNVOTE:

Oh, you right. I was trying to keep up with the people who could still CC not_mafia, so I had already checked off Marci.

Somehow missed that Pear had not chimed in. My bad

[Lukewarm]

I'm not CC here.
So Pear is actually town then. Catboi is flipping red here.

Okay, I think that means everyone has posted since Not_Mafia's claim, except catboi.

I'll go ahead and VOTE: catboi

Marci and Pear haven't
Considering they're both being cleared as town their input would be nice
UNVOTE:

Oh, you right. I was trying to keep up with the people who could still CC not_mafia, so I had already checked off Marci.

Somehow missed that Pear had not chimed in. My bad

It'd be funny for mafia to fakeclaim a heal on the doctor
I doubt N_M is lying here but no reason not to wait
But even without the CC part, it's still nice to know what our angelic townies are thinking

Yeah, if we are going in to Day 3 with 2 fully cleared town (2 non-cc'ed pr+1pr cleared townies-nk), and hopefully 1 mafia down, then Day 3 is looking pretty good tbh.

[Lukewarm]

Let’s go VFP actually

VOTE: VFP

catboi’s being too solvy

Do not like this change in direction tbh. I read catboi's posts as a last ditch effort to switch the vote off of him before the hammer, and then I saw you doing just that.

When I was deciding between vfp and catboi, I stopped and through about how they handled the day if they knew that they had targeted pear, and he had lived. Is it more likely that they decided to open up the day with a hard scum read on Pear, knowing that a PR could hard clear them (VFP), and therefore make themselves suspicious for hard scum reading a confirmable town?. Or does it make more sense to strongly defend Pear, so that once pear is hard cleared, you will get the towncred for defending them (catboi)?

I personally read Catboi's defense of pear as disingenuous, and had assumed that that meant they were partners. But given the knowledge that mafia targeted pear and pear got saved, then a forced defense makes sense in that scenario too.

[Lukewarm]

423 is scummy. Cat boi looks to be testing the waters with this post.
I'm not sure why they don't just vote my slot before the replace in though as I read their ISO as convenient or safe. Maybe town credit here.

@Catboi

What makes NM scum possibility to you after 27?

I fairly already explained why I thought he might be scum - he was merely declaring reads rather than outright voting them.

On a kneejerk level I heavily disagree with a pearofclubs vote

When VFP scum read Catboi, he immediately voiced a defense of him without reason.

And when I made my case against Pear, that he might have been making up an anecdote, his only argument was "no one does that."

He was the most vocal and frequent defender of pear, without ever giving any reasoning behind his defense. Post 482, 502, 567, 579, 602, 618, are all defense posts of pear, without ever providing a town read defense. This is what I mean when I say his defense felt disingenuous.

[Lukewarm]

Like his behaviour in isolation I can see from scum but looking at the broader scope of the game, I can't really picture Catboi as part of the mafia

Which is funny, because my sneaking suspicion is that it just might be you, and that your start of Day 1 completely bamboozled me.

But I would very much like to be able to spend Night 2 examining everyone's interactions with Catboi

[Lukewarm]

423 is scummy. Cat boi looks to be testing the waters with this post.
I'm not sure why they don't just vote my slot before the replace in though as I read their ISO as convenient or safe. Maybe town credit here.

@Catboi

What makes NM scum possibility to you after 27?

I fairly already explained why I thought he might be scum - he was merely declaring reads rather than outright voting them.

On a kneejerk level I heavily disagree with a pearofclubs vote

When VFP scum read Catboi, he immediately voiced a defense of him without reason.

And when I made my case against Pear, that he might have been making up an anecdote, his only argument was "no one does that."

He was the most vocal and frequent defender of pear, without ever giving any reasoning behind his defense. Post 482, 502, 567, 579, 602, 618, are all defense posts of pear, without ever providing a town read defense. This is what I mean when I say his defense felt disingenuous.

He seems so blindly confident in his town read of pear, with nothing backing up that read. That blind confidence feels to me like he already knew Pear's alignment, and had just decided "I'm going to defend pear because of the doc save" today.

[Lukewarm]

Even Pear seems to understand why someone joining into the game might see him as scum, but Catboi was not even willing to consider it?

[Lukewarm]

there's no realistic scummates for him, I can't really justify this elim

I am not sure how you are eliminating the possibility of a [t3, catboi] team?

Without being able to do a full iso of them rn, I could see them being in a team with T3 or possibly in a team with you. (If I remember correctly Marci even floated that idea Day 1) but like I said, I do intend to do a full Iso again over the night.

So from my PoV, he has 2 possible partners, but from your PoV, he should still have 1, right? Unless I am missing something on the Catboi / T3 front

[Lukewarm]

Regardless I'm pretty sure this is just a win.
Meuh not visiting makes them town here as they would have been visiting for either the kill or the Rolecop.
Pear being protected means town.
2 PR claims not CC.

This means we have 4 town out of 7 going into night 2.
Scum are only possible to be in me, T3, Catboi, and Lukewarm.

I don't think T3 is scum here so the pool narrows down to me, Catboi, and Lukewarm with T3 as the additional.

NM dies tonight, we have 3 town and a clear on someone. Scum flip today means that we have 4 town out of 6 players.

There's really nothing to try and solve here.

I wish I had that kind of confidence right now lol.

Is it not possible that one scum does both the rolecop ability and the kill? If so, how can you clear Meuh?

[Lukewarm]

When I was deciding between vfp and catboi, I stopped and through about how they handled the day if they knew that they had targeted pear, and he had lived. Is it more likely that they decided to open up the day with a hard scum read on Pear, knowing that a PR could hard clear them (VFP), and therefore make themselves suspicious for hard scum reading a confirmable town?.

Yes, actually, pushing a doc save target to see who defends them so you can narrow down the doctor, and possibly even force them to out if enough people join you, is incredibly basic play, to write it off as something scum wouldn't do is bad WIFOM which ignores the benefits of doing so

Sorry, can't take read advice from my top scum read, maybe we can touch back on this topic in the post-game /s

[Lukewarm]

Well, I am going to keep my vote on Catboi, and I'll check back right before the deadline to hammer if needed.

Much to think about over the Night

[Lukewarm]

Is it not possible that one scum does both the rolecop ability and the kill? If so, how can you clear Meuh?

My understanding is 1 action per player in newbies.
Unless I'm wrong here, Meuh can't be scum.

Can this rule be verified? Because that would change things.

[Lukewarm]

Lukewarm, catboi. If you are town then you should not have trouble with voting VFP.

If me voicing my reads and concerns gets me vote out, it gets me voted out, but I am going to hold out hope my read can pass the vote for as long as possible.

I'm gonna leave my vote on Catboi until ~1 hour before the deadline, but will hammer either the VFP wagon or my own to avoid a no elim if needed.

If I die before then, let me just say for posterity, I'm pretty sure Catboi is scum.

[Lukewarm]

Okay. This is my stance, because I don't know that I have been as clear as I could have been.

When I compared catboi and vfp, I am much more suspicious of catboi.

I feel like people some people have read my earlier post as saying "I think Meuh is scum" but that is not what I was trying to say.
My suspicions on Meuh and T3 are completely dependent on catboi flipping scum, because those are the two players I could see partnered with him. I do not have strong scum reads on either of them, but a flip on catboi would move them into the spot light for a hunt for his partner. If we don't flip catboi today, then I don't actually have a strong reason to be suspicious of either until that does actually happen.

My vote today has been for the person I am most suspicious of overall, and that is catboi. But it is starting to look like we are voting out VFP anyways. So looking towards how I can productively spend Night 2 after a VFP flip, I'm curious: if he flips green, who is everyone looking towards for tomorrow, and if he flips red, who you guys think he could be partnered with. (I know people are going to say me, but who else, because looking into VFPxMe interactions is not how I am going to spend my Night 2 if he flips red, I'll leave that to you guys.)

[Lukewarm]

WAIT THATS THE ONE YES

Something.... something has happened to the chat while I was typing that message

[Lukewarm]

Major VFP-Lukewarm partner vibes here

IF you say so. I am not sure in what world I would not have bussed him by now ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

[Lukewarm]

Major VFP-Lukewarm partner vibes here

Highly plausible.
It's a 66% chance of hitting scum on me right now.

How is that math working? NotMafia, Marci, and Pear are full clear, there is an argument to be made that Meuh is clear, but that still leave me, you, catboi, and T3, no? So 50%.

[Lukewarm]

How is that math working? NotMafia, Marci, and Pear are full clear, there is an argument to be made that Meuh is clear, but that still leave me, you, catboi, and T3, no? So 50%.

T3 isn't flipping scum.
3 scum are in me, you, and Catboi.

You should be seeing me and Catboi as scum here.

Why?

I have not seen a reason why he could not be a partner with T3

[Lukewarm]

How is that math working? NotMafia, Marci, and Pear are full clear, there is an argument to be made that Meuh is clear, but that still leave me, you, catboi, and T3, no? So 50%.

T3 isn't flipping scum.
3 scum are in me, you, and Catboi.

You should be seeing me and Catboi as scum here.

My concern with this post, is that if you do flip town, that would leave the PoE down to me+caboi, which I already know is not true

[Lukewarm]

Voting vfp still feels wrong. I am much more convinced its catboi

VOTE: vfp

I think this puts him a e1

[Lukewarm]

Okay, I went through the isos for [T3/Torri], Catboi, and [Sama/VFP] looking for partner / anti-partner posts, and they have not made this easy...

Both the T3/tori slot and catboi have the same general trajectory: They town lean the sama/vfp slot, even defending the slot when other people are suspicious. But once Not_Mafia says for everyone to vote for VFP, and they both vote VFP and make the case that he is a good vote. And then both eventually leave the VFP vote (T3 to push catboi, catboi to push me).

So no matter what, the scum town leaned their partner, bussed them when Not_Mafia said to vote VFP, and then got cold feet at the last min. But that sentence could describe either of them T_T

And looking at the Sama/VFP slot is contradictory as well. Sama has a scum read on Tori/T3 slot and a town read on catboi. VFP has a town read on T3/Tori slot and a scum read on catboi.

VFP insisting that T3 is clear, after it looks like VFP is getting voted out, is a WIFOM inducing moment. Is he trying to get the town to stop considering T3 is scum, or does he think that clearing him will draw him under suspicion after his red flip.

I think I am just praying that Marci can track clear someone today. If she can clear any one of us [me, catboi, or T3] it is an auto win. Scum must be in that group, so if anyone of us is tracker cleared, then town can kill off both of the others and we win.

If I had to choose, I think I would actually choose T3 as the partner. Mainly because he kept self clearing himself at the end of the day, trying to set up an “easy game, gg, we already won this” idea in the thread.

[Lukewarm]

so ig we aren't cleared? that's weird

You both are still cleared imo.

VFP was the goon, so his partner would be the Roleblocker. So when you were tracked, you would have moved as the Roleblocker, but you didn't.

And then Pear is clear, because VFP pushed hard on pear right out the gate on Day 2.

[Lukewarm]

I typed my longer post, before the day started.
If Not_Mafia was a Jailkeeper, not the Doc, then Mafia has a Roleblocker. Marci probably does not get to clear anyone today

[Lukewarm]

So yeah in conclusion, Marci's train of logic on her read on the Catboi/me/Sama slot trio doesn't really make sense, especially her read on me. If Marci is elimed and flips red, N_M looks absolutely terrible, considering the way she handled the day. However, she still has plenty of possibilities for a teammate, as she wasn't heavily discussed yesterday (and therefore doesn't actually have much interactions we can POE scumpairs off of) and has been very non-confrontational. Her only day 1 vote was the one on me.
I think it's worth mentioning that Marci is generally a non-confrontational player, so it's not

too

scummy as to how she handled day 1, but I still think town!Marci would be slightly more aggressive than she was.

Ahh, I didn't think I feel like this, but I guess I do LOL.
I really townread you rn, because I thought of stuff during the night Clearer mind

so im not as badass as i am in my mind ??

Fir the record as mafia here I probably unvote when I see this and don't press her further so I can hopefully NK her without doc protection.

Doc

protection what's up with that?

I know some people were scum reading catboi for saying doc protection, when we did not know if there was a doc or not. Well now that we know for sure we do not have a doc, this is actually a good look for him. Scum would have known I'm definitely leaning towards T3 atm

[Lukewarm]

Scum would have known I'm definitely leaning towards T3 atm

Scum would have known

that we had a jailkeeper, not a doc

. I'm definitely leaning towards T3 atm

[Lukewarm]

So yeah in conclusion, Marci's train of logic on her read on the Catboi/me/Sama slot trio doesn't really make sense, especially her read on me. If Marci is elimed and flips red, N_M looks absolutely terrible, considering the way she handled the day. However, she still has plenty of possibilities for a teammate, as she wasn't heavily discussed yesterday (and therefore doesn't actually have much interactions we can POE scumpairs off of) and has been very non-confrontational. Her only day 1 vote was the one on me.
I think it's worth mentioning that Marci is generally a non-confrontational player, so it's not

too

scummy as to how she handled day 1, but I still think town!Marci would be slightly more aggressive than she was.

Ahh, I didn't think I feel like this, but I guess I do LOL.
I really townread you rn, because I thought of stuff during the night Clearer mind

so im not as badass as i am in my mind ??

Fir the record as mafia here I probably unvote when I see this and don't press her further so I can hopefully NK her without doc protection.

Doc

protection what's up with that?

I know some people were scum reading catboi for saying doc protection, when we did not know if there was a doc or not. Well now that we know for sure we do not have a doc, this is actually a good look for him. Scum would have known I'm definitely leaning towards T3 atm

I don't think this really means too much, I could see this coming from both scum!Catboi and town!Catboi, agreed on T3 being significantly scummier though, let's elim him

I meant more, "if you were scum reading catboi because he knew we had a doc" then that no longer makes sense lol

[Lukewarm]

VOTE: T3

oop

[Lukewarm]

Luke is obvious town.
Vote catboi tomorrow.
The end.

Wait, no one told me I was obviously town

[Lukewarm]

Hrm. Just out of curiousity, if he jailed the roleblocker, and the roleblocker blocked him, what happens in that scenario? Obviously that didn't happen.

All Newbie games use the Natural Action Resolution system for determining Night action effects.

Mafia Roleblocker

action takes precedence over a

Town Jailkeeper

action should that apply.

[Lukewarm]

As Catboi pointed out the thing exonerating Luke more or less is that N-M said he scumread him yesterday instead of Catboi.
Given that if N-M misses he's almost certainly dead, it would make the most sense for him to target someone we'd expect him to, so that if he misses we'll have a chance at guessing what he did...
And if N-M jailed Lukewarm, and you were the one he roleblocked, that means Lukewarm didn't kill anyone, he was jailkept.

...I'll check back here tomorrow. If everyone's ready to move on I won't hold us all hostage.
I'll hammer T3 if it ends up being up to me.

Okay, an explination that I can understand as to why people are town reading me. Before the day started, I assumed I was going to be one of the people that was being pushed for the vote, and then it did not happen

Overall, it seems like T3 is the consensus. Me, Catboi, Meuh, and Pear (and T3) all started the day by saying their preferred vote was T3. Marci is the only one who hasn't really voiced a preference.

I think the only other thing we could do before we pass the vote is for Meuh, Pear, and Marci to all voice their opinion on me vs catboi tomorrow, just in case the vote on T3 does not end the game. In that scenario, which ever one of you do die overnight will have left something to help Day 4

[Lukewarm]

I’m ready!

Okay, fingers crossed we just win

VOTE: T3

[Lukewarm]

I think it's marcistar, actually, if my very leading question did not make it clear. On day 2, because of Not_Mafia's fakeclaim, I had mentally calibrated to both PR claims being confirmed town. When he flipped jailkeeper, I completely forgot that there's a setup with a jailkeeper and no tracker (I'm not used to this new newbie setup, I've played 1 real game on it). It's very unfortunate but I nly realized it after T3 flipped and I was left wondering to myself who N_M jailed if not Lukewarm. And that was when I realized marcistar wasn't clear at all.

This is an interesting take...

I have not really thought about that possibility. Because I thought we had 2 confirmed town, I did not even consider them. I am not sure that I am sold, I am going to take some time reading through the thread thinking about if I think that is actually a possibility.

I was sure that today was gonna start with you making a case against me, so this day has already started off completely differently then I expected

[Lukewarm]

Just running through the setup suggestion

If we are in a 2xGoon set up, and then no one died Night 1, scum know for sure that we are in C2. That means they know we have a jailkeeper as our only pr.

If they were going to fake claim a PR, then they would be limited to the two that prs that could appear along side a tracker, Tracker and Friendly Neighbor. If they claim FN, the first question is "who did you reveal yourself to" and the fake claim immediately falls apart. So the logical fakeclaim is Tracker.

Because VFP was a goon instead of a scum PR, we cannot eliminate this possibility...

Damn... This is actually a reasonable scenario. I was sure that I was walking into Day 4 with Catboi as the only option. And suddenly, I am actually going to have to think today T.T

[Lukewarm]

So I decided to go back through Day 1 looking for Marci / Sama interactions, and I noticed a distinct lack of them.

I scrolled through, and I noticed Marci seemed to be quoting basically everyone, but not Sama. So I started counting both Marci and Sama's quoted messages until I found the first time they cross quoted one another.

As of post 182, Marci quote counts:
Meuh : 10
Norwgian : 13
Pear : 5
Not_Mafia 3
iN3 : 1
Torii : 6
Catboi : 1
Sama : 0

As of post 182, Sama quote counts:
Meuh : 6
Not Mafia : 1
Torii : 4
Catboi : 1
Norwegian : 0
Pear : 0
iN3 : 0
Marci : 0

It does not stand out with Sama as much, but Marci seems to be a prolific quoter, and looked to be avoiding Sama. She had quoted every single other player in the game by post 107 (Iso 20), but then did not quote Sama for the first time until post 183 (iso 37). 20 posts to quote 7 players, and then 17 more before she got the last one in.

I could see this arising from scum trying to distance...............

I was so convinced it was catboi.

I am not saying that I am on board with marci = scum yet. I was just really hoping the accusation would fall apart after a cursory review, and it just hasn't, and I am really going to have to do a deep dive into both possibilities now.

[Lukewarm]

Considering I'm running out of time and would kinda like to get a bit of hw done today.. is it fine if i reply to the very first thing I quoted tomorrow..?

girl, we have like 7 days to sort this out. I for one know it is gonna be a while before I am ready to vote

[Lukewarm]

He was inactive, there wasn't really much to quote I'm pretty sure, and when there was I feel like it felt already resolved..? (this is essentially my argument for the whole post actually, would've just changed up a few wordings.. but I'm running out of time aaaaaah)

Spoiler:

I double checked if Sama was the least active leading up to the first interaction between one another. By that point Sama had 13 posts, Tori had 6, and iN3 had 5. Yet Sama was the one you had not quoted, and you had actually managed to quote Tori just as many times as she had posted (6 quotes)

To be clear, my post about the number of times you quoted each player is not supposed to be damning evidence against you. Like I am not using that to scum read you at all. It is really coming more from me trying to decide if I should dismiss catboi's accusation or seriously consider the possibility.

The accusation making sense given the setup possibilities + the Sama being your least interacted with person day 1 + the content of your day 1 interactions, all together means I have decided to take it seriously.

So I am going to have to dedicate some serious time looking it over now.

I second catboi's question. If you are town, who do you think the real scum is, and why?

[Lukewarm]

No rush. Take your time.

I must admit while it's nice that my case is being considered the fact that the response from both meuh and lukewarm is essentially "yeah that makes sense" is a little unnerving >_>

My mentality coming into this day was that you were 95% scum, so my energy is shifted towards going over the alternate possibilities and their validity, and while ofc confbias is a thing, everything is lined up in a way where Marci could very well be fakeclaiming. I haven't really made my mind up on if I do think it is her, and there's no rush really, I was just making sure the theory stood strong enough to warrant being considered, and it does

Basically, same.

I came into today thinking we were going to have two clear players + me + catboi, and that meant it was 100% catboi from my pov. But his case on Marci makes enough sense that I am no longer at 100%. Suddenly I have a new problem to solve

Did town!catboi spend night 3 scouring for an alternative scum because he townread me (see post 869) and spotted this fakeclaim from marci
OR
Did scum!catboi spend night 3 scouring for the best person to shift suspicion to after he thought he would lose the 1v1 with me (see post 878) and he came up with a plan to blame marci?

[Lukewarm]

No rush. Take your time.

I must admit while it's nice that my case is being considered the fact that the response from both meuh and lukewarm is essentially "yeah that makes sense" is a little unnerving >_>

My mentality coming into this day was that you were 95% scum, so my energy is shifted towards going over the alternate possibilities and their validity, and while ofc confbias is a thing, everything is lined up in a way where Marci could very well be fakeclaiming. I haven't really made my mind up on if I do think it is her, and there's no rush really, I was just making sure the theory stood strong enough to warrant being considered, and it does

Basically, same.

I came into today thinking we were going to have two clear players + me + catboi, and that meant it was 100% catboi from my pov. But his case on Marci makes enough sense that I am no longer at 100%. Suddenly I have a new problem to solve

Did town!catboi spend night 3 scouring for an alternative scum because he townread me (see post 869) and spotted this fakeclaim from marci
OR
Did scum!catboi spend night 3 scouring for the best person to shift suspicion to after he thought he would lose the 1v1 with me (see post 878) and he came up with a plan to blame marci?

Yeah, that's the issue. It's hard to determine his intent regarding this push, I can see it from either alignment.
Why were you 100% on Catboi? Couldn't I also be scum?（＞人＜；) smh smh I'm capable of being evil!

I had checked you off due to Marci's clear on you. Once VFP flipped as the goon, that would make the other scum the PR, so it did not make sense for scum!you to not have moved night 1.

[Lukewarm]

Spoiler:

In A1, it's safe to rb, in A2 there's the risk of tracker and in A3, there's no benefit to rbing

Even in A2, the risk of the tracker is offset by the chance of blocking the tracker, imo. Tracker has a 1 in 7 chance to hit the roleblocker. Tracker has a 1 in 6 to hit the tracker, and if you add in the chance to hit the jailkeepr, they have a 1 in 3 chance to hit a town pr.

So the odds are heavily in favor of the rb using their ability, unless the rb is being scum read, and the tracker has a greater chance of tracking them. You seemed to be pretty townread Day 1, so I just don't see it happening lol

Meuh, which way are you leaning atm? Personally, I am struggling

Like, I read through Marci's iso, and I start leaning towards it being her, and then I read through catboi's iso and I start leaning towards it being him.

[Lukewarm]

@Meuh, you said that you have a lot of experience playing with Marci, right? Can you weigh in on something that has stood out to me?

In your experience playing with her, is Marci normally particularly hesitant / apologetic as a town player? She seems very hesitant to make her claims without first making it clear that she is unsure and she also repeatedly set up an out of game reason why she might be underperforming as a town player. In my experience, town players seem more inclined to just confidently be wrong. But this can vary a lot by player

Spoiler:

before coming to this site, I mainly played with the same group of people over and over, and this was something I could use as a scum tell for some players, but we did have this one girl who was always super hesitent no matter what

Spoiler:

I don't have many reads rn I won't lie, it's kinda hard because it just seems like the same few people talking with others coming in once in awhile, and theres nothing all that solid, but I'll give my best shot

I get played soo easily I hope I don't get played this game tho.

before I 100% say cause its so hard to decide. (I just really dont know sorry )

I'm so sorry guys I have a lot of schoolwork to do rn, and dont feel like i can put effort in rn like i have in previous days

I hope i used the right post numbers im so scared of doing these kinds of lists cuz I tried it last game and by accident put the wrong number

Hmm, not sure exactly what I think..

I didn't really feel hella confident in anyone being scum earlier (like i had scum reads, but i wasn't confident in them...), Idk where to go I wanna make a vote that I think is scum instead of just going onto a wagon for the sake of an elim.. but with votes this spread out, i don't really see reactions to being voted..
I think despite what I want to do, that I should just stick within the already being voted because thats what'll be best for town.

Do you have suggestions..? I wanna hear whats the ideas of other people first... but I have a rough idea of what vote I would make.

i hope this helps..?

wait also heres my VOTE: meuh

i think my heads broken reading meuh is always so hard for me

--- I don't believe it. I could always be wrong

I'm sorry guys I was too pissed to play yesterday ;-; my brothers so annoying

that looks so big, but i wrote it as I was reading i'm sorry if its too much

i'm sorry i haven't been here so often. i feel so useless.

im useless because i've been focusing on hw instead of helping im sorry

I'm not really like 100% sure on this... but its the best idea i've got..
{snip}
This is the read i'm most confident in, so I'll be voting it VOTE: catboi, if its lukewarm... i've truly been tricked and i'll take the blame for this loss.

[Lukewarm]

Reading through Marci's iso in that game kind of backs up my point from 965. She is a lot less hesitant in her own reads, very confidently pushes on her top two scum reads, and even complains about another player doing exactly what I see her doing in this game.

this confuses me pickles sounds a bit unsure here.. is this a serious vote? the ...? makes it sound accusing and unsure but like, in a way that they could easily back down from that if they get challenged on it.

Would still like Meuh to weigh in on this since she has more experience with Marci.

[Lukewarm]

@Meuh, on the other hand, this is a post from catboi that stood out to me.

If T3 or marci express a willingness to vote me I'll claim.

Like it is hard to see this, and not think it is a soft pr claim.

It further irks me because at the time that he made this post, he only had 2 votes on him. So he was no where near being voted off, so it was not a "if someone is about to hammer me, I will claim my role as VT"

[Lukewarm]

Meuh, which way are you leaning atm? Personally, I am struggling

Like, I read through Marci's iso, and I start leaning towards it being her, and then I read through catboi's iso and I start leaning towards it being him.

Can you explain your thinking? Vague statements like this are unhelpful.

Just for the record, since I've laid most of my cards on the table already:

Lukewarm? This post scared the hell out of me. Because in all my experience playing mafia, I often find scum say things like this at ELO. The fencesitting without visible commitment or analysis, I've seen it many times.

Now, that doesn't mean it's inherently scummy. Town can make posts that sound very scummy, and they can fencesit as well, especially in a situation like this. So it's a post town

can

make. But it's also a post scum

would

make, because when two townies are attacking each other scum want to seem like they're giving them consideration but don't want to make the first move. So I asked you because I want to see your thinking behind things, rather than just words about how you're feeling, so I can hopefully get a handle on whether it's believable.

Now, I'm not acting hastily and changing my mind on a single post here. I learned my lesson from doing that before. I'm not going to discard the evidence from all the rest of the game for a hasty judgment based on a paranoid read of something that only happened this game day. (in fact, when I was looking back at VFP's ISO, I felt his final comments toward you were somewhat un-partnery)

But as I'm being completely transparent with my thought process right now, I just felt I should be open with how I felt about this post. (If you're town, don't say stuff like this!)

Yeah, I made that statement because I knew that if I started making points, both you and Marci would react to them, and that is not what I wanted yet. I wanted to hear from Meuh, the only person in the thread that I trust atm.

[Lukewarm]

@Meuh, on the other hand, this is a post from catboi that stood out to me.

If T3 or marci express a willingness to vote me I'll claim.

Like it is hard to see this, and not think it is a soft pr claim.

It further irks me because at the time that he made this post, he only had 2 votes on him. So he was no where near being voted off, so it was not a "if someone is about to hammer me, I will claim my role as VT"

I thought at the time there were multiple people scumreading me and that it was possible I'd end up as the default wagon since there wasn't someone else people were really pushing.

I'm stubborn about claiming though, you can see it in the other game, where I got run up on day 1:

Yeah, I absolutely am not claiming unless there's intent to hammer, that'd be a bad idea. I'll vote Lone if necessary for self-preservation.

I don't think I really softclaim as either alignment, but

if I was going to hint at a PR as mafia I probably would just claim it rather than claiming VT.

I am not sure how that out-of-thread quote is supposed to clear you here?

In that game you said "I absolutely am not claiming unless there's intent to hammer" but then in this game, you said "If T3 or marci express a willingness to vote me I'll claim." while only having 2 votes on you. And that seems like two different approaches to take if you were VT in both games

And I am not sure that it would necessarially make sense for scum!you to follow thorugh with the claim, given the gamestate.

You made what could be taken as a soft claim in post 629, and then not long after Not_Mafia claimed doc in post 649. So I could see scum!you soft claiming, but changing direction once Not_Mafia claimed their role.

Reading through a duel iso between you and Not_Mafia makes it look like he thought the same thing. Since he knew he was the jailkeeper, and Marci had not been CC'ed, then you hinting at being a PR would have been a major red flag from his PoV.

Spoiler:

Did catboi just slip we're in Tracker/Doc/Rolecop

If T3 or marci express a willingness to vote me I'll claim.

I think Lukewarm is playing like obvscum, beyond that I don't have strong reads to leave

Did catboi just slip we're in Tracker/Doc/Rolecop

I made a guess.

Based on what?

Based on what?

based on T3 trying to draw out jailkeeper claims and me straight-up forgetting that jailkeeper+tracker could be a thing

T3 vote catboi

At first blush I took it as a soft claim. I think that multiple other players did too. If I am remembering correctly, both T3 and Marci commented on it, and like I showed in the spoilers, not_mafia voted not long after it.

[Lukewarm]

@Meuh, see? I could see either as scum. And I am really looking for the one thing to tip the decision one way or the other.

Spoiler:

Can you decide for us, and I just sheep your choice? /s

[Lukewarm]

I don't mean to seem disrespectful but the crux of your case for me possibly being scum is you imagining a post I made could be a softclaim, and that's incredibly stupid.

When did I ever say that was the only, or even primary, reason I was scum reading you? Like I had a scum read on you as early as my catch-up post. This was just a new thing I spotted.

I realize I have not made a full case on you on Day 4, but I have limited time to put into this game each day, and most of that time has been been focused on the new possibility - Marci.

I have plenty of posts prior to the start of day about reasons why I scum read you (572, 583, 684, 681, 827)

[Lukewarm]

When that's the thing you're bringing up to discuss in ELO, and not mentioning the other things, I assume it's the main part of your read. It's not a good point. Do you think I should be back reading you to find other reasons you suspect me when you're not talking about them today?

I see now. It appears the issue is that I am not tailoring my posts in a way for you to start defending yourself, and you think that I should be/you want to start

Quite simply, I'm not to that point yet. Most of my time I have been able to dedicate to the game so far in Day 4 has been spent on investigating the accusation against March. My game plan was to investigate that, let the thread fill up with you+marci presenting your cases against each other, hopefully getting some input from Meuh, and then making a full case on my day off (tomorrow) when I had more time to properly sit down and make it.

And I don't have any intention to restructure my entire schedule to make a case post just to suit the timeline you have for how I should be playing the game.

[Lukewarm]

lol. You thought that was an emotional reaction? That was like the most detached response I think I could make.

It appeared like you expected me to be to the point of making my case against you. I wasn't to that point. I explained that I was not to that point, and gave you an estimate of when I would be.

Spoiler:

I think you may have misunderstood this sentence as well
"I am not tailoring my posts in a way for you to start defending yourself"

I did not mean that you were expecting me to tailor it to you specifically. I meant that you expected my posts to be one thing, and they were not that, and that was causing miscommunication between the two of us

From my PoV the conversation went like this

Luke 969: I pointed out a weird thing I noticed when looking back
catboi 978: You responded to that, basically saying I made a really bad case against you.
luke 979: I told you that that was not my case against you. That was just a new piece I was trying to fit into the puzzle, and I tried to assure you I had more things to go off of given the fact that I have suspected you for a while (still not trying to make a full case)
catboi 980 - 982: you start responding to that by trying to defend against my old posts
luke 983: I realized that you were reading/responding to my posts as if they were my cases against you. - Which made me think you expected me to already be doing that. So I made it clear that I was not there yet, I explained where my time was actually being spent, and let you know when to expect my case post.

It does feel like you are constantly reacting to my posts in ways that I am not intending for them to be taken... (took 969 as my case against you. took 979 as my case against you. took 983 as an emotional response. )
Not sure how to fix that.

I think I'll keep my thoughts to myself until I am actually ready to make a case tomorrow.

[Lukewarm]

Spoiler:

No rush. Take your time.

I must admit while it's nice that my case is being considered the fact that the response from both meuh and lukewarm is essentially "yeah that makes sense" is a little unnerving >_>

My mentality coming into this day was that you were 95% scum, so my energy is shifted towards going over the alternate possibilities and their validity, and while ofc confbias is a thing, everything is lined up in a way where Marci could very well be fakeclaiming. I haven't really made my mind up on if I do think it is her, and there's no rush really, I was just making sure the theory stood strong enough to warrant being considered, and it does

Basically, same.

I came into today thinking we were going to have two clear players + me + catboi, and that meant it was 100% catboi from my pov. But his case on Marci makes enough sense that I am no longer at 100%. Suddenly I have a new problem to solve

Did town!catboi spend night 3 scouring for an alternative scum because he townread me (see post 869) and spotted this fakeclaim from marci
OR
Did scum!catboi spend night 3 scouring for the best person to shift suspicion to after he thought he would lose the 1v1 with me (see post 878) and he came up with a plan to blame marci?

I think if I were scum looking to 1v1 you, I could make arguments there, and it's easier to to fight that way and "win" an argument because scum and town will act similarly in this situation - both know their elimination will lose the game and that voting the other person wins it.

I also think I *can* make a very strong argument for me being town but don't want to just yet, because I do want to get a sense of if people are legitimately solving or not.

I disagree with this honestly, town was leaning towards you being scummier than Lukewarm, so avoiding that is something you could’ve done and even if the Marci idea were to not work, you can always fall back on a case against Lukewarm, I really don’t have a problem imagining Scum!Catboi pushing Marci here
(I’m on my phone so sprry if any of my formatting is bad or if I leave any spelling mistakes, this is kinda hard to navigate and I don’t feel like spending a bunch of time fixing my posts)

Well, I don't think I

would

, but I definitely

could

. Ultimately this is all just speculationand I think there's always a scenario where anyone could have done something as scum, but it's your job to decide who is more likely to be scum

What makes this decision hard is that both options are the most logical decision for either one of you to make as scum.

Marci fake claiming tracker would have been the best play for scum!marci to make
AND
You looking for the best target to shift blame to Night 3, and settling on this marci push would have been the best play for scum!you to make.

Are you trying to say that if you were scum, and you spotted an accusation against Marci that lined up damn near perfectly, you would not have jump on this accusation?
Because I find that hard to believe.

[Lukewarm]

(but, again, self-meta doesn't mean a whole lot)

You can say that again. As of post 968, I was leaning pretty strongly towards Marci being the vote today, and really was just waiting to hear Meuh's response to post 965 before I settled in to that being the case I was going to build. But every time you have tried to defend yourself, I have been left less sure its her

Speaking of which, @Meuh can you make sure to respond to Post 965 - 968

[Lukewarm]

(but, again, self-meta doesn't mean a whole lot)

You can say that again. As of post 968, I was leaning pretty strongly towards Marci being the vote today, and really was just waiting to hear Meuh's response to post 965 before I settled in to that being the case I was going to build. But every time you have tried to defend yourself, I have been left less sure its her

Speaking of which, @Meuh can you make sure to respond to Post 965 - 968

Well, I thik if muy posting has been offputting you should remember what gets said today isn't the most important thing - the most revealing evidence is on all the days before this. I think getting dragged down because someone's posting in ELO sounds "off" to you is a mistake. Like how you sounding like you were fencesitting earlier pinged me, but I didn't flip my entire read on it. I just was upfront with what made me uneasy and asked you to clarify.

It is not that I am "getting dragged down because someone's posting in ELO sounds "off." It is much more like you keep reminding me why I was scum reading you earlier in the game. Like I had you near the top of my scum read list during my catchup on Day 1... and I had you as my top scum read Day 2... And even at the start of this day, you were my scum read. How dumb would I feel post game if I literally scum read you the entire game, and still lost to scum!catboi because he managed to side track me last min.

I think at this point I am going to have to build full cases against both of you tomorrow, because I have been pulled back to uncertainty

[Lukewarm]

im sorry guys i got really busy with school and other stuff and didnt have enough time to fully check the thread

i forgot what page im on does anyone remember LOL

I always just use my own iso to find my spot

You last post was 960.

[Lukewarm]

Can't sleep, so I'm starting my case building tonight

The Case for Catboi

Day 1

During Day 1, the very first time he mentions Sama in the thread was 239, where he gave him a town read. After that, I cannot find a single point where Catboi gives any reason he might suspect Sama, and interestingly, appears to have questioned everyone who gave Sama a scum read.

Spoiler:

Not_Mafia - {snip} the read on Sama was weak. I think there's a decent chance he could be scum here.

Meuh - {snip} The bit about Sama in 162 is interesting although I'm not sure what she means by "positioning".

Town

Pear
Norwee
Samawoodo

marcistar
in3kro

meuh
toriii
N_M

Scum

So in 239, he questioned everyone who had a scum read on Sama, put Sama in the town pull, and put both people who scum read sama in the scum pool

Post 290 questions Marci for being bothered by Sama
Post 320 questions Marci again over Sama
Post 436 questions In3 for voting Sama

And then his final post of Day 1 was

Actually it might be scummy tbqh, nothing in his reads was all that difficult

I think scum somewhere in N_M/marci/T3, outside chance of Sama maybe

His stance on Sama Day 1 is weird to me. Town lean him, never point out any reason you are suspicious of him, but then end with "outside chance of Sama maybe"
I noticed Catboi using the phrase "FoS your buddy, push on townies." when building his case against Marci, and his final post of Day 1 seems to fit that bill nicely.

On the flip side, Sama does not mention Catboi very much. But in general, he starts him as a null read, and steadily gives him "more townie point"

Spoiler:

@Samawoodo:

thoughts on Catboi?

Uhm actually is a null for me, idk, i dont feel like he is scummy for me atm. I mean, i have not so many reads for him right now so actually i couldnt figure so much about him

Acually @catboi , from my POE, u have started getting townie points in your last posts, not enought to consider you a townie atm, we are 9 players atm and is hard to "gamble" anything right now.

Actually, I’d like to “update” my list of impressions. Catboi more townie for example.

Day 2, BNM

I think it is important to break up Day 2 as "Before Not_Mafia" and "After Not_Mafia"

Spoiler:

Specifically Before/After these posts

marci vote VFP

Or better yet we flashwagon catboi

Because if the VFP+Catboi team were real, that being the choice N_M was pushing into the thread would put them in a hard position, and that is the strongest "time to bus" moment that I think you can see in a thread

The VFP entrance: VFP joins the thread, and gives a full read of the lobby in Post 501, and his scum reads are

Marci, Catboi,

and

Pear

. So regarless of his partner, he put them into his scum list. However, he follows up and says that his preference for the Day 2 vote is Pear>Marci>Catboi, and then proceeds to build a case against Pear.

Spoiler:

VFP, thoughts on marci?

{snip}
I can go into more detail if you want though but I'd rather lim here than Catboi from my bottom 3
{snip}

Followed up with

Meuh is always town here for me.
Marci lim works for me and I think we just win with Meuh, T3, and iN3krO as town here.
Marci scum makes NM town and iN3krO is plausibly the partner for 513
Marci town just means 2 scum in Pear, Catboi, and NM

Once again, "FoS your buddy, push on townies."

Interesting to note, just BEFORE he gave his read list in 501, he says in post 500 "Maybe town credit" for catboi, and then put him as his scum read he did not want to push out.

The Catboi reaction: So VFP just showed up into the thread, and build a case against Pear, and catboi appears to town read VFP for making that push. And then later makes a clear town read on VFP

Spoiler:

On a kneejerk level I heavily disagree with a pearofclubs vote

I don't think VFP posting that case is scummy though and I actually feel good about my hesitance to vote that slot.

The "I actually feel good about my hesitance to vote that slot." is what makes me think that he town reads VFP for it. But at the very least, he does not scum read him for a Pear push. Which is an interesting comparison to how he responded to my own Pear push, which he immediately labeled as scummy.

And he did eventually go as far as to voice a town read on him

A lot of the arguments being made now just don't do a whole lot for me. I do think VFP is probably townie.

tl;dr
VFP pushes pear // I don't buy it but I think VFP might be town regardless
Luke pushes pear // I don't buy it and I think Luke is scum for making the case he did

So to recap, we reach the end of the "Before Not Mafia" times with Catboi having a town read on VFP, and VFP has a scum read on catboi (and marci), but with preference of Pear>Marci>Catboi

Day 2, ANM

We reach post 607, where Not Mafia comes in with "we should vote VFP or flash wagon catboi" - and in response they both bus. Catboi votes VFP in 610 calling it a compromise vote and VFP votes Catboi in 615

For the rest of Day 2 Catboi and VFP both make cases against each other. But again, this is after NM said we are going to vote one or the other. Meaning, their only chance at a win would be to make sure the rest of the thread thinks that they could not be partners.

And despite the cross vote that they did in response to Not_Mafia, Catboi kept trying to shift the vote away from VFP and to me through out the rest of Day 2

Spoiler:

I don't buy the wagon on pear whatsoever. My preference would be lukewarm over you since in my view his reasoning is just blatantly scummy but beggars can't be choosers.

I think scum intentionally tried to push pear to see who would defend them so they could narrow down the doctor. In that light VFP and Lukewarm both look terrible. I think T3 is the town out of that group, but I'm not sure of it.

Sorry my reads have been so terrible.

UNVOTE:

VOTE: Lukewarm

Other random things

Everything above here is stuff I saw looking at the catboi/VFP dual iso. But there were a couple other things I wanted to point out as well.

I still stand behind my post 684 / 686 / 687. Catboi seems to make a concious effort the defend pear, but all of his defenses came off as disingenuois. And I would like to follow that up with something Pear said himself in response

Spoiler:

I agree, marci. I doubt that both scum would've been involved in pushing me D2.
If one did, they could figure out who the PR is, and it's less likely for them both to get caught.
And it's not unreasonable for a new swap in to suspect me, but if that was the game plan for D2, then it's more likely Catboi/VFP.
{sni}

It's VFP/Catboi, methinks

.

Pear called this scum team before VFP even flipped red

I also thought Meuh made a good point in post 453

Spoiler:

Catboi, why not unvote sooner yesterday? I had made it very clear I was going to vote on Norwee, leaving him at E-1 which would be very easy for someone to hammer (especially considering N_M exists). Also did you really just vote Norwee because 361 made you

that

uneasy

? Or was there something more to it? I don't understand why you played the way you did near the end of the day.

At the End of Day 1 / Start of Day 2 Catboi claimed he did not want the Norwee vote to pass, but left him at E-1 in a game where Not_Mafia exists.

Conclusion

I could see this as a partner pair. Neither made any effort to build a case on the other until after Not_Mafia stepped in the later part of Day 2, when they then cross voted.

Okay. I am going to go to bed now. Will look into Marci / VFP interactions tomorrow.

[Lukewarm]

I planned on making a case against Marci as well, but looking at the interactions between the marci and the sama/vfp slot, I'm not really seeing them as partners...

Day 1

Marci has Sama as a scum read the entire day, and repeatedly explains why. I would also like to point out, that when I did my quick scan of Marci's iso I noticed she did not quote him, but looking through more closely, she does talk about him a few times before that quote

Spoiler:

Here is every time Marci talks about Sama, and she scum reads him every single time. And she is not presenting like 4 scum reads with him in them, she appears to be saying I think the team is Sama+____

Samawoodo -

slight scum

I didn't agree to how he could be seen as awkward earlier in the phase, though I find it quite weird that since he defended himself, he hasn't come on since.. It might be because of timezones and him not having time, but I would really like to see him give more reads at this point.

In post 107, Marci gave a read list for the entire game, and had exactly 2 scum reads - Sama and iN3

inkro + Sudowoodo?

I was thinking this sort of also. By "sort of" I mean, I sus them both as individual units, I don't really see them with any links to each other as of right now, though Samawoodoo has barely gave much reads, and in3kro has only like 4 posts..?

The way Sama has been positioned and the way people have interacted with them have me uneasy

I should go and read back as to why I'm uneasy but when I ISOed ppl earlier to make the questions I felt like Sama was positioned in a way I could see them in a lot of different scumpairs, which is why i asked so many ppl about them

What scumpairs do you see him in?
tbh I wouldn't be surprised if hes scum... I expected him to be a bit more active/give a bit more reads since he said he's played before, he hasn't really casted suspicion onto anyone except in3kro, so I think if samawoodoo is scum in3kro wouldn't be..?

Samawoodoo

can you get in thread and give some reads/a readslist..?

so then like to explain about samawoodoo, it just seems like he did that because meuh has those kind of thoughts also. (like meuh said ur more townie... and then samawoodoo says ur more townie..) though he could just see meuh as a really townie town leader I guess..?
it just sort of seems like... not really buddying actually but... having too similar thoughts to her..?

for the samawoodoo stuff: like, he just seems to be doing alot of what you are..? which is why i kinda thought meuh + samawoodoo might be the scumteam. (like meuh doing stuff, and samawoodoo being inexperienced scum, so he just copies what his partner (meuh) does.)

Sama does not mention Marci much, but he also lists her as potential scum when he does.

Spoiler:

Marci was null, but i dont like how she feels worried about a null reading coming from an almost afk player (Toriii), is like she is trying to "demostrate" he is townie yes or yes, and this made me feel like

Day 2

Enter the VFP. I pointed this out in my Catboi post, but his entrance was to scum read both Marci, and Catboi. And he put the elim priority as Pear>Marci>Catboi

Spoiler:

marcistar
catboi

Pearofclubs

VFP, thoughts onmarci?

228 is a good post from town mind set plus pushing the game forward, but majority of their posting is just fence sitting and safe for me.
I can go into more detail if you want though but I'd rather lim here than Catboi from my bottom 3.

Meuh is always town here for me.
Marci lim works for me and I think we just win with Meuh, T3, and iN3krO as town here.
Marci scum makes NM town and iN3krO is plausibly the partner for 513
Marci town just means 2 scum in Pear, Catboi, and NM

But I think it is important to remember, that we all settled on the assumption that VFP pushed Pear to out the PR. So if he is going in with the game plan of Pear>Marci>Catboi, then the moment Pear gets Doc cleared that means it is

Pear

>Marci>Catboi, and leaves him with Marci as his stated preferred push.

Marci initial response to VFP's entrance was a scum read on him and then puts him in her solve

Spoiler:

Otherwise, i'm not really sure.. but I think vfp feel kinda weird idk how to explain well, but like... well I just don't really like what he's done so far. since I townread pearofclubs, his read on them didn't really sit right with me originally. His thoughts could be valid tho, since he has an outsiders pov on it and wasn't there in the moments.. But idk it just seems to be pushing at really nothing..? Pearofclubs would be such an easy push for a scum to make without getting blood on their hands, since they're majorly townread.

I think that t3 and vfp are scum.

The elephant in the room

There was very little evidence to me that they were partners, but I would be remiss if I ignored post 561, which is the only post where I saw potential partner interactions.

Spoiler:

And you think day 2 when we stopped the kill n1 is time for a deep wolf push

Of course. Pear is getting off lightly for ticking the scum boxes.
The fact they still haven't gone over iN3krO after 2 requests makes me think they just can't generate another fake read. 542 also shows that they are not reading the game as I already stated why you and Marci aren't scum together.

I'll vote betwen Pear, Marci, and Catboi at this point.

Marci is currently E1 (I think?) and I'll hammer if it comes to it but I want some input first since little has been said since I joined in.
At no point have I said I am limited to Pear only.

VFP does not hammer Marci at E-1

My best guess is that VFP was still betting on a Tracker outing over Pear, especially since I replaced in and also pushed pear. And I mean, if he was holding out hammering marci in order to out the tracker, it paid off, NM did out himself.

[Lukewarm]

In conclusion:

Day 1: Sama started getting suspicion placed on him Day 1. Catboi town read him, and questioned everyone who was suspicious of him ; Marci doubled down and repeatedly explained why she had him in her top two scum reads.

Day 2: VFP replaced in. Catboi town read him; Marci placed him in her scum team solve.
And VFP put his elim priority as

Pear

>Marci>Catboi

[Lukewarm]

@Meuh, I think I am ready to vote Catboi. But if you think it is Marci, I would like for you to make that case.

[Lukewarm]

Look at what he actually said in post 525 " I'd rather lim here {Marci} than Catboi from my bottom 3.

[Lukewarm]

He put both in his bottom 3, made a case against pear, then said he would rather elim Marci over catboi.

So elim priority was pear > Marci > catboi

[Lukewarm]

What do you think about the fact that she sat with a VFP scum read in day 2 as well, and ended up with him in her scum team solve?

Really? What are your reads right now?

I think t3's lil push for jailor to out is kinda scummy, also how he hammered norwegianboyee so soon after he entered the game... just feels like he didn't wanna give the effort to give in depth reads
Otherwise, i'm not really sure.. but I think vfp feel kinda weird idk how to explain well, but like... well I just don't really like what he's done so far. since I townread pearofclubs, his read on them didn't really sit right with me originally. His thoughts could be valid tho, since he has an outsiders pov on it and wasn't there in the moments.. But idk it just seems to be pushing at really nothing..? Pearofclubs would be such an easy push for a scum to make without getting blood on their hands, since they're majorly townread.

So like my order would prob be t3 -> vfp -> catboi -> not mafia -> pearofclubs -> meuh

I think that t3 and vfp are scum.

And even when Not_Mafia dropped his "vote VFP or flash wagon catboi" she never voted catboi

[Lukewarm]

When Not_Mafia puts the "VFP or Catboi" choice into the thread. Scum team catboi+VFP have no choice but to cross vote. But Marci could have agreed with me, and tried to shift the decision to catboi. In that scenario, I was the one being vocal about it not being VFP, so I would have been the obvious partner for him, not her.

[Lukewarm]

Like, there is not an concrete posts from either one saying "I am / am not partners with Sama/VFP." But reading through catboi's iso, he is consistently trying to shift suspicion away from that slot. Like all Day 1 and all Day 2, start to finish.

He gives Sama an early town lean, comes to his defense every time someone puts a scum read out on him. When VFP swaps in, he gives him a town read too, and even after Not_Mafia puts the "VFP or Catboi" thing out there, he still keeps making a case that we should actually vote me over VFP.

So overall, I can see a lot of Catboi's posts coming from the angle of trying to help his scum buddy.

On the flip side, I never see Marci do anything to help her potential partner, even when she could have reasonably done so without drawing suspicion to herself. Like even after the entire thread believed her PR claim, and had her listed as a confirmed townie, she still did not try in the slightest to shift the vote to either catboi or to me (the two other competing wagons at the end of Day 2)

[Lukewarm]

You have experience playing with her in the past.

Looking at her iso, does it feel like the town!Marci or the scum!Marci you have played with before?

[Lukewarm]

I also felt like catboi's case against Marci required some mental gymnastics, and even required him to leave out some of her posts.

I'm the doc, I was on Pear, now vote VFP or catboi

So pears town okai. At this point its looking more like a VFP X Lukewarm.

Here again she's trying to tie lukewarm to VFP before he flips. Remember what I said about how scum like to tie people to their partners preflip? This feels like more of that.

{snip}

this game feels so solved already should we just end phase now..?

I think the only other thing we could do before we pass the vote is for Meuh, Pear, and Marci to all voice their opinion on me vs catboi tomorrow, just in case the vote on T3 does not end the game. In that scenario, which ever one of you do die overnight will have left something to help Day 4

I feel like it would be more likely you, i feel like catbois too helpful to be scum.

I'm so stressed rn because of classes i'm sorry i haven't been here so often. i feel so useless.

But now, here, on day 3, after VFP has flipped, marci doesn't mention anything of her VFPxLukewarm read from the day before, she's content to let us hang back and eliminate T3 without much protest. She barely mentions he read from the day beore, not even to say she's changed it, and that to me is suspicious.

Right here, catboi's case completely ignores the fact that she had T3 listed as her number 1 scum read for almost all of Day 3 ( 485 / 513 / 549 / 552), and also when she said that in her mind VFP's partners were narrowed down to me/T3 before VFP flipped (771)

Catboi skipped over all of that, and tried to make is seem suspicious that she would be okay with T3 vote on Day3, because he cherry picked the single post she made where she only mentioned me+vfp and did not mention T3

[Lukewarm]

**for almost all of Day 2** typo

[Lukewarm]

Ah, I see. I guess I misunderstood y'all play history lol

So are you leaning towards it being Marci, or are you just still on the fence?

[Lukewarm]

If you're here, I'd like to hammer test now, before I go into arguing further.

What do you mean by this? Hammer test me?

[Lukewarm]

I am town - although I think it would be funny to just hammer anyways to save us all time

But I am a team player. I know for a fact that me and Meuh are on the same team, so I can wait for her.

[Lukewarm]

@Meuh, I think we are confirmed town-teammates now

[Lukewarm]

[Lukewarm]

Oop

did not realize it would be so big lol

[Lukewarm]

I did not hammer when I had the chance, but I think I will leave it to where you can hammer if/when you are ever convinced Meuh

VOTE: catboi

[Lukewarm]

Spoiler:

He put both in his bottom 3, made a case against pear, then said he would rather elim Marci over catboi.

So elim priority was pear > Marci > catboi

You put too much stock in hollow words, and not enough in actions. So he said he'd prefer to lim her - what steps did he take towards actually making that happen?

You're viewing the game in overly simplistic terms . This tends to come from a lack of experience. Scum try to obscure connections between them. That's part of the game. You're seeing all the light distancing that took place between marci and her teammate, and assuming it somehow unaligns them, when in fact the opposite is true - they expressed suspicion of each other throughout the game but avoided exerting real pressure. That's textbook distancing. But you haven't played enough to realize this, you see something as basic as me misreading VFP and assuming we must be teamed because of that, when the opposite is true - I rarely ever defend a teammate the way I did VFP.

Actions speak louder than words is something you should always keep in mind, yep!
Luke, Marci's behaviour day 1 towards Sama and the scumread she expressed do not somehow clear the pair, it's an early day 1 read with no action taken from there until Marci picks the read back up and votes VFP in mid-day 2, I don't understand how partners lightly pressuring each other is somehow clearing, especially since as Catboi said, scum partners are TERRIFIED of being paired up and defending each other.
Basically scumteams wanna maximize the degree to which they can assure the other's safety while also maximizing the distancing, and you seem to be overvaluing the "keeping safe" part because of some light pressure with no real action, and undervaluing the distancing aspect.
scum!Marci wouldn't be going
"Ohhh I think Sama is town I don't understand why people scumread him it doesn't make sense to me "

I think that you guys are misunderstanding my own position. I do not think that the Marci/Sama/VFP interactions clear her... And my actual thoughts on their interactions were a very small part of the whole path that lead me to the conclusion that catboi=scum.

Overall, I just think that the case against Catboi is stronger. To quote back Catboi

Ultimately this is all just speculationand I think there's always a scenario where anyone could have done something as scum, but it's your job to decide who is more likely to be scum

I went through, and examined catboi, built a whole case on how I could see them as a scum team - see post 1021 - and despite seeing a strong case for a catboi-VFP partner pair, I kept examining all possibilities.

My next step was to look over catboi's case against Marci - and overall, thought it was a weak case. Like it required a lot of mental gymnastics to conclude. See 1037 for an example of where I felt like his case was lacking, but over all it felt like in order to build his case against her, he had to cherry-pick his posts, and ignore posts that would have countered his case - instead of explaining how his case was correct despite those other posts.

But I did not stop there, I went into the Marci/VFP/Sama joint iso, specifically in the mind set of "I am going to build a case that they are partners." And to be clear, I did not even come to the conclusion "these interactions can't come from partners." I said, that I was not able to build a good case that they are partner. While similar on the surface, there is a distinct difference between those two conclusions.

I looked at the cases they both built against each other. I looked at the cases other players presented against both of them (like this is how I found that quote where pear called the scum team as VFP+catboi lol). And then tried to personally build my own case against both of them. And then I compared everything I saw against both of them, and came to the conclusion that Catboi's case seemed stronger/more likely.

So let's not boil my whole thought process down to "Marci scum read Sama/VFP, so they can't be partners" - because that is a gross oversimplification.

[Lukewarm]

Like there are two possibilies:

Catboi+Sama/VFP

Day 1, catboi put his scum partner as a null read / slight town read, and when other people scum read his partner, he never actually went so far as to defend sama, but instead questioned the other person's scum read. Every single time.

And then Day 2, VFP replaced in, once again catboi put a slight town read on his partner until *gasp* Not_Mafia came out with "lets vote VFP or better yet flash wagon catboi" at which point the scum team cross voted, but catboi continued to try and push the vote off of VFP

Then on Day 3, the general consensus was "catboi is the more likely scum between lukewarm/catboi" and so over the Night phase catboi hunted for an alternative, and spotted a push he could make against marci

OR

Marci+Sama/VFP

Day 1, Marci listed Sama in her top two scum reads, but pushed on other people as a way to distance

Then the night kill got blocked, and because they were 2 goons they knew that meant they could fake claim tracker

Marci then decides to go through with the fake claim, and claims Meuh was her target and that she had not moved. Which imo, was not her safest fake claim option.

Spoiler:

At the time she made the claim, there was a chance that Meuh was the jailkeeper who had used her ability as though it was a Doc ability, ie, she targetted a town read (which is exactly what Not_Mafia did) And there is no way that Marci would not have know that was a possibility for Meuh, because it had been discussed in the thread

If you are a jailkeeper who targetted a scum read, out yourself. If you are a jailkeeper who targetted a town read, keep it to yourself.

And Meuh made it very clear that she was toeing that line specifically

I'm not a jailkeeper who jailed a scumread.

compared to how some other people responded

I'm no jailkeeper so I didn't jail a scumread

And then the whole town buys her fake claim, and everyone starts referring to her as confirmed town.

And then she is told to choose vfp or catboi. Like she so easily could have gone with catboi, but for some reason went against her own partner.

Spoiler:

Like Not_Mafia specifically gave Marci the choice (bolded for effect)

marci

vote VFP

Or

better yet

we flashwagon catboi

And not only did Not_Mafia present it as Marci's choice, he even included a "better yet" pointed in catboi's direction. And she decided to make a case against her own partner and vote him anyways.

Like option 1 makes sense with no caveats. Option 2, requires
-Marci realized that she could fake claim Tracker
-Marci deciding to follow through with the fake claim, and clear Meuh (who was not the safest lie)
-Marci deciding to make a case against VFP and vote him, when she could have easily gone with catboi. (And from my understanding, newbie players are way more hesitant to bus)

So occam's razor says that the possible solution that requires the least number of concession to be true, is more likely to be true. So I concluded it is just Marci.

Spoiler:

Bonus points to

OPE that explains the shift in her read on me
I confirm that info btw

You noticed that Marci did shift her read on you from Day 1 -> Day 2.
Is the simpler explanation that he track cleared you over night, so she shifted her read
OR
That as scum she scum read you in Day 1, then came into Day 2 and changed her read on you for no apparent reason, then lied about tracking you (and remember, at the start of Day 2, she would not have know which of her / VFP would be the one who needed to fake claim tracker)

[Lukewarm]

Spoiler:

He put both in his bottom 3, made a case against pear, then said he would rather elim Marci over catboi.

So elim priority was pear > Marci > catboi

You put too much stock in hollow words, and not enough in actions. So he said he'd prefer to lim her - what steps did he take towards actually making that happen?

You're viewing the game in overly simplistic terms . This tends to come from a lack of experience. Scum try to obscure connections between them. That's part of the game. You're seeing all the light distancing that took place between marci and her teammate, and assuming it somehow unaligns them, when in fact the opposite is true - they expressed suspicion of each other throughout the game but avoided exerting real pressure. That's textbook distancing. But you haven't played enough to realize this, you see something as basic as me misreading VFP and assuming we must be teamed because of that, when the opposite is true - I rarely ever defend a teammate the way I did VFP.

Actions speak louder than words is something you should always keep in mind, yep!
Luke, Marci's behaviour day 1 towards Sama and the scumread she expressed do not somehow clear the pair, it's an early day 1 read with no action taken from there until Marci picks the read back up and votes VFP in mid-day 2, I don't understand how partners lightly pressuring each other is somehow clearing, especially since as Catboi said, scum partners are TERRIFIED of being paired up and defending each other.
Basically scumteams wanna maximize the degree to which they can assure the other's safety while also maximizing the distancing, and you seem to be overvaluing the "keeping safe" part because of some light pressure with no real action, and undervaluing the distancing aspect.
scum!Marci wouldn't be going
"Ohhh I think Sama is town I don't understand why people scumread him it doesn't make sense to me "

I think that you guys are misunderstanding my own position. I do not think that the Marci/Sama/VFP interactions clear her... And my actual thoughts on their interactions were a very small part of the whole path that lead me to the conclusion that catboi=scum.

Overall, I just think that the case against Catboi is stronger. To quote back Catboi

Ultimately this is all just speculationand I think there's always a scenario where anyone could have done something as scum, but it's your job to decide who is more likely to be scum

I went through, and examined catboi, built a whole case on how I could see them as a scum team - see post 1021 - and despite seeing a strong case for a catboi-VFP partner pair, I kept examining all possibilities.

My next step was to look over catboi's case against Marci - and overall, thought it was a weak case. Like it required a lot of mental gymnastics to conclude. See 1037 for an example of where I felt like his case was lacking, but over all it felt like in order to build his case against her, he had to cherry-pick his posts, and ignore posts that would have countered his case - instead of explaining how his case was correct despite those other posts.

But I did not stop there, I went into the Marci/VFP/Sama joint iso, specifically in the mind set of "I am going to build a case that they are partners." And to be clear, I did not even come to the conclusion "these interactions can't come from partners." I said, that I was not able to build a good case that they are partner. While similar on the surface, there is a distinct difference between those two conclusions.

I looked at the cases they both built against each other. I looked at the cases other players presented against both of them (like this is how I found that quote where pear called the scum team as VFP+catboi lol). And then tried to personally build my own case against both of them. And then I compared everything I saw against both of them, and came to the conclusion that Catboi's case seemed stronger/more likely.

So let's not boil my whole thought process down to "Marci scum read Sama/VFP, so they can't be partners" - because that is a gross oversimplification.

I mean I think building a case

against

Marci and letting me and Catboi reply to it would probably help us develop our thoughts on Marci's alignment as a group better than one defending her, even if you're not confident in the case you're making, I think it'd be better for game progression to have 2 different angles being contemplated

I don't think that's your whole case but when ~1/3 of 1025, the post where you make a case for Marci being town is arguing that point, I feel like debunking it is pretty relevant?

Okay, I see the confusion. I did not make myself clear, that I was not trying to make the case that Marci+VFP could not be partners. I put my notes down for when I analyzed their joint iso. And then ended with "I am not seeing enough here to build a case that they are partners." My bad.

[Lukewarm]

And since I did not feel like I could make a good case that they were partners, I didn't make it.

Plus, catboi's case is already in the thread, so I thought both angles were already here

[Lukewarm]

Lukewarm with all respect, you're in a confirmation bias tunnel. It's clear nothing I do or say matters to you. Arguing with you is like arguing with a brick wall. Your logic on me is wrong, just as your logic on was wrong on Pear, and wrong on VFP as well. I can't argue with you when your entire reasoning process is just...backwards. So I'll stop because it's clear we aren't going to have productive conversations.

When Not_Mafia puts the "VFP or Catboi" choice into the thread. Scum team catboi+VFP have no choice but to cross vote. But Marci could have agreed with me, and tried to shift the decision to catboi. In that scenario, I was the one being vocal about it not being VFP, so I would have been the obvious partner for him, not her.

Lukewarm is grossly oversimplfying the context of these events. Let me walk through what happened:

At that moment in time right before the claim, VFP's vote is glued on me, and I was voting N_M.

catboi (2): VFP, Meuh
Not_Mafia (2): T3, catboi

Not_Mafia claims here.

I'm the doc, I was on Pear, now vote VFP or catboi

I would say that you are skipping over an important point here. Not_Mafia pushed the VFP or Catboi idea, before he outed himself as the "doc" Specifically 607+609. You never voted for VFP before 607 and VFP never voted for you before 607.

Meuh and T3 immediately jump on me to bring me to E-2.

catboi (3): VFP, Meuh, T3
Not_Mafia (1): catboi
VFP (1): Not_Mafia
marcistar (1): Pearofclubs
Not Voting (2): marcistar, Lukewarm

With 8 players alive, it takes 5 votes to eliminate a player.

VFP makes this post right after:

I'm not CC here.
So Pear is actually town then. Catboi is flipping red here.

This is not a post scum who is bussing into autoloss makes.

I have addressed this as well... VFP making that post is the exact reason why T3 was eliminated over you yesterday. Once the cross vote happened, I admit that VFP pushed hard on you. But imo, if you think one of the scum is going out that day, then your best bet is to make sure the thread does not think it is possible for the two of you to be partners. And it came close to working. We all voted out T3 over you because of how VFP handled the end of that day. And I think that it would have carried through to getting me voted out, if not for the fact that Not_Mafia made it so clear her scum read me that everyone decided he must have tracked me.

At that moment, I assume I am likely to be eliminated. I intend to have lukewarm as my dying FOS and make a post, only to reconsider it just 3 minutes later because I looked at T3 and decided he and in3kro were never partners. From my point of view that meant VFP had to be mafia.

I'm town and not counterclaiming doctor.

I think scum intentionally tried to push pear to see who would defend them so they could narrow down the doctor. In that light VFP and Lukewarm both look terrible. I think T3 is the town out of that group, but I'm not sure of it.

Sorry my reads have been so terrible.

UNVOTE:

VOTE: Lukewarm

T3's immediate push on in3 means he and lukewarm are almost never aligned, actually, so VFP is probably the surest bet for scum. I'd go him tomorrow and then probably lukewarm but that's a weak guess.

VOTE: VFP

Not_Mafia sees I'm, doing and decides to vote VFP because I'm trying to solve.

Let’s go VFP actually

VOTE: VFP

catboi’s being too solvy

VFP makes another post. He continues to keep his vote on me. At no point does he try to divert the elimination elsewhere from a potential autoloss.

Not_Mafia second guesses and votes lukewarm.

VOTE: Lukewarm

Fuck it, flashwagon on Luke

I jump again, because I found the way lukewarm was arguing to be scummy.

Lukr and catboi are fighting with each other. Unless this is elaborate scum theatre they are not both scum. I am town. This leaves VFP as CONFIRMED SCUM.

I mean, we're not voting each other.

VOTE: Lukewarm

well, we weren't, anyhow

Here is the first time after Not_Mafia said "VFP or catboi" that marcistar posts:

catching up so hard

i wanna do that, but if i do that before posting my big post ive been writing will it all go to waste?

So, contextually, there was never a chance to marcistar to vote me. Now, she could have voted lukewarm, as there were two votes on him from me and N_M. Now, to her credit, she doesn't do this. She votes VFP. But there was no guarantee of a lukewarm vote going through, even if VFP switched. T3 was pushing hard for eliminating VFP:

Lukewarm, catboi. If you are town then you should not have trouble with voting VFP.

If me voicing my reads and concerns gets me vote out, it gets me voted out, but I am going to hold out hope my read can pass the vote for as long as possible.

I'm gonna leave my vote on Catboi until ~1 hour before the deadline, but will hammer either the VFP wagon or my own to avoid a no elim if needed.

If I die before then, let me just say for posterity, I'm pretty sure Catboi is scum.

We hear your reads. But if you vote VFP the town automatically wins.

So she votes VFP. As I've already said, this is a no-lose vote for her.

I think that this is the point where I most strongly don't buy your push here. Like everything else is "there are two explanations of that" so I am putting the alternative out there, similar to what Meuh was saying in 1043.

But this one, I think your logic is just wrong. Like when you spell out the order of events more thouroughly then I did, it makes Marci seem even more town.

Marci was a away from the thread for a while, and missed a lot of the VFP or Catboi thing from Not_Mafia. But she comes back, and she sees

marci vote VFP

Or better yet we flashwagon catboi

T3 vote catboi

I'm the doc, I was on Pear, now vote VFP or catboi

Let’s go VFP actually

VOTE: VFP

catboi’s being too solvy

VOTE: Lukewarm

Fuck it, flashwagon on Luke

And decides "yep, I'm going to bus here." Not_Mafia is confirmed town at this point, and is currently leading the wagon away from her partner. Like where is her risk at just saying "I'm going to trust Not_Mafia here." And if both confirmed town were on the same wagon, that would have almost certainly saved her partner without it every bringing any suspicion on to herself

[Lukewarm]

Marci was a away from the thread for a while, and missed a lot of the VFP or Catboi thing from Not_Mafia. But she comes back, and she sees

marci vote VFP

Or better yet we flashwagon catboi

T3 vote catboi

I'm the doc, I was on Pear, now vote VFP or catboi

Let’s go VFP actually

VOTE: VFP

catboi’s being too solvy

VOTE: Lukewarm

Fuck it, flashwagon on Luke

And decides "yep, I'm going to bus here." Not_Mafia is confirmed town at this point, and is currently leading the wagon away from her partner. Like where is her risk at just saying "I'm going to trust Not_Mafia here." And if both confirmed town were on the same wagon, that would have almost certainly saved her partner without it every bringing any suspicion on to herself.

Reposted this section, because I don't want it lost in the long post

[Lukewarm]

Can I vote Marci safely? There's 2 on Catboi and 1 on Marci rn right?
Marci scum makes so much more sense to me and I don't wanna stop myself from voting who I think is scum because of some bias I randomly thought up
If we lose because Catboi's really good at building solid cases and arguing, then that's a loss I'm willing to take, idc, but it's exhausting to act like Marci isn't the more likely scum here
Luke I'm 100% willing to take the blame for the loss if Marci's town at this point, if Catboi's scum he's played this game very well and has pocketed me perfectly

Yeah, you are safe to vote Marci

[Lukewarm]

Tbh elim me over Catboi, that's probably better for the game, unless he's town and my read is off, but I would

NEVER

make an incorrect read

I don’t think you r scum wither way Catboi. So that vote is meh, but i’m still feeling like N_M could be town.

I mean that's understandable if you don't believe me, it's not like I'd claim it's the strongest case even if I feel it's my best lead right now.

Tbh elim me over Catboi, that's probably better for the game, unless he's town and my read is off, but I would

NEVER

make an incorrect read

You should generally never offer yourself up for elimination like this, especially when it's far from guaranteed who the wagon will be on. After all, you know you're town while anyone else is just a guess. You are right that I'm town here, but I hardly claim to be some great scumhunter, my reads are typically not great.

My main worry here is that Norwee stays fixated on me if we're both still here tomorrow. That fixation could be problematic, cause then it could detract from our ability to well, find scum later down the line. If getting rid of me now will lead to more productive days soon then ig there's worse than that. Not my preferred outcome but meh

If my elim is inevitable, wouldn't getting it over with ASAP best? Idk I just feel like if I'm trapped to be elimed, it'll probably better for you guys to shift your focus somewhere else as much as possible.

Lukewarm I genuinely can't see how a scumteam could look at these posts and still think I was a jailkeeper candidate and even if I wasn't the least likely to be JK, I think with the benefit of me being a widespread townread, Marci can set up the game so town is most likely to stick to the scumpool that excludes her. I don't see how anyone else would be a better claim for her to be making there.

I am not arguing that it is impossible for Marci to be scum. Like, I see the explanation that Catboi is putting out there. I just think it is more likely to be catboi ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

[Lukewarm]

@Meuh, see? I could see either as scum. And I am really looking for the one thing to tip the decision one way or the other.

[spoilr=]Can you decide for us, and I just sheep your choice? /s[/spoiler]

VOTE:

Marci

I said I would sheep you

VOTE: Marci

[Lukewarm]

@ Catboi, did we just win or lose?

[Lukewarm]

Well, I am town, so great!

[Lukewarm]

To be honest with everyone, I was at like 50/50 on it being either catboi or Marci, but saw catboi doing a good enough job of building a case/defending himself, and decided to take the mantle of building the case/defending Marci, and then just following Meuh vote

[Lukewarm]

AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA PLEASE TELL ME WE WON

I'm town. Assuming you didn't slowroll me earlier, we win

Well, I am town, so great!

It looks like it !

[Lukewarm]

To be honest with everyone, I was at like 50/50 on it being either catboi or Marci, but saw catboi doing a good enough job of building a case/defending himself, and decided to take the mantle of building the case/defending Marci, and then just following Meuh vote

Like if Catboi was scum, I wanted to make sure he really had to work for the win, because I did not know if town!Marci was going to be able to stand up to his accusation as well.

She seemed flustered by his accusation, which could have been town!marci not suspecting the turn around, but now its clear that it was scum!marci surprised to be caught in her lie

[Lukewarm]

this game has been a roller-coaster but it was very fun! thanks everyone for being a part of it and to the host especially! sorry you had to keep up with whatever the hell was the second half of day 2 plus voting history was nice to have
also heading off to sleep, hopefully neither of you are lying (

although scum luke would be hilarious

)

Seconded! Very much appreciated the extra effort you put into keeping up with the vote count!

[Lukewarm]

In post 1112, fferyllt wrote:
Marcistar you came soooo close. I thought you played well!

tyty, but i still cant help but feel like i didnt play my best LOL

I think you did great. I don't think me or Meuh would have spotted your fake claim. Like you did a good enough job of making it that the entire lobby bought it on day 2, everyone continued to buy it day 3, and only 1 person was able to figure it out day 4. So that was an impressive job imo

[Lukewarm]

if you want, you can join this once it goes into signups: viewtopic.php?p=12746859#p12746859

although it is bastard, so there's lies and twists plenty in the sea

whats bastard games like?

That means the mod can lie to you / the entire thread.

Like the mod can send you a PM telling you you area doctor, but really you are a Serial Killer and don't know it. So Night 1, you think you are going to protect someone, but really you go kill them. And Day 2 starts with them dead. So now you have to ask, did I do that (because I know I targeted them) or does someone else have the ability to kill and bypass doc protection,

[Lukewarm]

if you want, you can join this once it goes into signups: viewtopic.php?p=12746859#p12746859

although it is bastard, so there's lies and twists plenty in the sea

whats bastard games like?

That means the mod can lie to you / the entire thread.

Like the mod can send you a PM telling you you area doctor, but really you are a Serial Killer and don't know it. So Night 1, you think you are going to protect someone, but really you go kill them. And Day 2 starts with them dead. So now you have to ask, did I do that (because I know I targeted them) or does someone else have the ability to kill and bypass doc protection,

oh that sounds nasty hard i dont want it

i just want something simple and easy since im too busy rn to keep up with complex stuff AHAHA maybe after school ends ill do something more complex
do u have any games ur gonna play? :0

The only game I am signed up for just posted that it is full

[Lukewarm]

if you want, you can join this once it goes into signups: viewtopic.php?p=12746859#p12746859

although it is bastard, so there's lies and twists plenty in the sea

whats bastard games like?

That means the mod can lie to you / the entire thread.

Like the mod can send you a PM telling you you area doctor, but really you are a Serial Killer and don't know it. So Night 1, you think you are going to protect someone, but really you go kill them. And Day 2 starts with them dead. So now you have to ask, did I do that (because I know I targeted them) or does someone else have the ability to kill and bypass doc protection,

oh that sounds nasty hard i dont want it

i just want something simple and easy since im too busy rn to keep up with complex stuff AHAHA maybe after school ends ill do something more complex
do u have any games ur gonna play? :0

If that is the case, that I would recommend looking at the Open Queue. In there, all of the games the post have all of the roles in the game listed in the set-up. So you don't have to think about any other possible roles

[Lukewarm]

The 9 player micro i posted is really easy to understand.

Yeah, Marci maybe we can both sign up for that one.

It has Norwee and it has Not_Mafia in it. If we add you and me, then that would mean half the lobby was also in this game

[Lukewarm]

I'm going to play in this micro 9 player setup:
viewtopic.php?f=4&t=86465&start=64

Follow that link, then leave a post saying "in/divide and conquer"

[Lukewarm]

are u gonna can u first SMSKSMSSK

Okay, I did.

[Lukewarm]

okay luke we gotta be besties at heart

As long as you promise to be on my team next time, and not try to trick me like in this game

[Lukewarm]

okay luke we gotta be besties at heart

As long as you promise to be on my team next time, and not try to trick me like in this game

k listen

it was all a misunderstanding, i never tricked u... deep down in my heart i was tracker

If that is the case, now I feel bad for passing the hammer vote on you

Can you ever forgive me?

[Lukewarm]

I just realized that my initial read of Day 1, had both Marci and Sama in the untiered section of my catch up read list. I even said I put them in yellow to say "This is mainly a "need to give them a second look tier atm"

And then I never gave them a second look