Newbie 2073: Parfait (Over)

[shwinnebego]

VOTE: T3

hello!

[shwinnebego]

Hi!
What color is your role? This will help you win. Also, what is your mafia experience?

I'm afraid I don't know anything about any colors. Sounds like the kind of question an evil person would ask me!

I've played 8 games on my 'home' forum and became curious about how it looks elsewhere.

[shwinnebego]

I’m keeping my vote where it is based on vibes!

Anyone who thinks I should move it should ping me and make a compelling case

[shwinnebego]

I’ll post more complete reads eventually. I didn’t realize that each game day was a week tbh


Home forum is breadnroses, game days are usually a day

Range of high chaos to vanilla but we skew high chaos

[shwinnebego]

Everyone's talking about their past games and I'm over here like "this is my second game ever" lol

Tbh the RVS stage seems practically designed to throw people off-track, so imma reserve judgement for when there's more to go on.

I will say that T3 gives me weird vibes that I can't quite explain, but I dunno if I'd outright call him scum.

The only other person I've really taken notice of is Val but since he's VLA I'll have to wait til he comes back to look more into.

If I were to read alignment into this post I’d say it vibes evil. Take my word for it.

[shwinnebego]

Right now my only input is that catboi seems to be trying pretty hard, so he's a bit towny.
So is meg.

how much effort is considered trying?

I think they're trying hard because they're doing their best to make reads even though there aren't many posts. When there aren't many posts, making reads like that is considered trying in my opinion.

Also evil. Take my word for it. I am an epic checker of vibes

[shwinnebego]

Can you explain those vibes?

I also think you’re probably evil

[shwinnebego]

There, those are my reads

[shwinnebego]

You say to take your word for it, but aren't really making a compelling argument. Are you just grasping at straws or are you just going off of gut-feeling and insisting everyone agree with them?

It's the latter.

[shwinnebego]

You say to take your word for it, but aren't really making a compelling argument. Are you just grasping at straws or are you just going off of gut-feeling and insisting everyone agree with them?

It's the latter.

[shwinnebego]

Anti-town in a newbie doesn't mean scum. It's his first game.

Except it isn't

I've played 8 games on my 'home' forum and became curious about how it looks elsewhere.

It may be his first game on here, but 8 games is more than enough to know ways to play to help town.
Honestly the fact that they've gone dark again when people start questioning them is definitely setting off some alarm bells in my head. I understand that life can be busy, but if that's the case, why not just say that? Instead their only defense is that their old games had the days go shorter? I have to agree with Roden that it just doesn't make any sense.

VOTE: shwinnebego

I have indeed been busy, and I'm finding it tough to remain interested in this game Day 1.

[shwinnebego]

VOTE: catboi vibe shift

[shwinnebego]

My playstyle is too powerful for this forum

[shwinnebego]

I imagine people are going to ask me to justify my vote and provide evidence and so on.

So here is my justification:

I am voting for catboi because I think catboi is evil.

[shwinnebego]

Sigh. I can sense you're going to be a lot of fun to deal with.

[shwinnebego]

If my playstyle is interfering with your having fun, or if you are town-aligned and think my playstyle is unhelpful for town, then you can certainly quorum me to solve the problem! It won't help you quorum a wolf though.

That said, I do think that quoruming me would provide a decent amount of information right now, given that I have managed to elicit reactions from at least catboi, GeneralWu, navigatorv, and maybe someone else who I've forgotten about (can't really be bothered to go back and read carefully).

So preemptively, you're welcome!

That said the day doesn't end for like 10 more years so a lot is likely to transpire in the intervening period.

[shwinnebego]

..

[shwinnebego]

Anyone got any questions? I got answers!

[shwinnebego]

Here is my primary motivation for voting catboi: catboi is positioning himself as town leader.

I find town leaders to be suspicious.

I hope this is a more satisfying reason than previously!

[shwinnebego]

Here is my primary motivation for voting catboi: catboi is positioning himself as town leader.

I find town leaders to be suspicious.

I hope this is a more satisfying reason than previously!

Oh my goodness, you're one of

those

. I get why you think that sort of thing is suspicious, and yet, I don't think I've been all that leader-y this game? I'm certainly not really

trying

to do that, though that is a role I try to take sometimes as both alignments.

Could be! Anyway, I'm open to other arguments.

[shwinnebego]

I mean, you could point out where you see me as trying to act like a town leader?

that sounds hard. i'll just let other people decide if they agree or not

[shwinnebego]

GeneralWu - Town. The fact that votes stacked up so easily suggests that one of the folks on them is worth looking at. I bet the wolves split today

navigatorv - Town. They responded suspiciously to my stirring the pot, which I appreciate - and they did so in a style that vibed town to me.

shwinnebego - me. I'm a town hero, always have been.

MegAzumarill - I read them as evil. Reactive. Waffly.

Roden - Can't remember off the top of my head but I'm gonna go with likely Evil for now.

Val89 - Most recent vote suggests Town to me. I like moving out of jokevote phase

T3 (SE) - An early jokevote for me, now seeming increasingly evil - Val has a pretty good argument but not enough for me to vote

catboi (SE) - Evil. Town leaders are sus. I don't know anyone's playstyle here, so we'll see. I wanna keep pressure on.

Save The Dragons (SE) - No read, can't remember any posts. Null for now.

[shwinnebego]

.

But basically, when I get scum read as town I tend to think the person accusing me is likely scum, especially if I think they have a really bad reason for doing so.

Let’s see how well your self improvement regiment is working. You are scum! I think it’s evil to share your own internal process about how you react to being sussed. Real townies have no feelings, we sublimate ourselves to the collective good. VOTE: Roden

[shwinnebego]

I’ll hammer General Wu right now out of boredom if someone asks me to

[shwinnebego]

UNVOTE:

Why’d ya do that?

[shwinnebego]

Why don’t you want General Wu hammered?

[shwinnebego]

That’s a highly suspicious move. Putting vote pressure on Wu and then hopping off after I threatened a hammer?

I’m struggling to read that behavior through a town lens.

[shwinnebego]

In fact this might be the first serious substantive reason to vote for anyone I’ve had so far. Now we’re talking. Jokephase is over for me folks, let’s hunt some ice cream melting monsters.

[shwinnebego]

I think you are a very suspicious catboi

I’d vote ya but I need to keep presh on Roden. They have it comin!

[shwinnebego]

That’s a highly suspicious move. Putting vote pressure on Wu and then hopping off after I threatened a hammer?

I’m struggling to read that behavior through a town lens.

...are you kidding me right now?

Nyet

[shwinnebego]

Well obviously You are scum and so is General Wu

[shwinnebego]

Can’t be hammering your evil buddy just when you were starting to create a plausible rift between the two of you before the discussion organically shifted towards sussing other posters without too much blatant pressure from you, as you remain townread by most of the thread for your ostensibly earnest hunting, now can we?

[shwinnebego]

shwinniebego, just stop with this hammer nonsense. We do not want D1 to end yet. Think about what happens if you hammer. Not only do we lose a power role if GeneralWu is one, we also lose a few days of discussion (which can be quite helpful as our total discussion in the game is on a soft limit) We also have the most on track person silenced for the rest of the game (ala nightkill.) It doesn't really matter what GeneralWu is, we don't want them hung until later.
I understand you may scumread catboi from unvoting there is the objectively best move for town.

As a general note, voting is used for pressure to get discussion out of a player, but hammering will cut off that discussion which is the point of the vote anyway.

If I know that I'm "not gonna get hammered anyway" then I'm not gonna feel very much pressure due to a vote, am I?

If hammering is off the table, then votes are meaningless.

[shwinnebego]

Well obviously You are scum and so is General Wu

Can’t be hammering your evil buddy just when you were starting to create a plausible rift between the two of you before the discussion organically shifted towards sussing other posters without too much blatant pressure from you, as you remain townread by most of the thread for your ostensibly earnest hunting, now can we?

I was under the impression you were townreading generalwu. Do you believe that to not be the case anymore?

i'unno

[shwinnebego]

Shwin: Pretty sure at this point he's just a troll. None of his posts have had anything of value barring maybe his reads list (which is questionable at best), his votes are for the most asinine reasons, and he's all but stated that he doesn't really have an interest in the actual game itself. Tbh he's made the game super un-fun to play which is partly why I've been so quiet and I think from now on, unless he starts taking things seriously or subs out, I'm just going to ignore what he says just because the chances of it actually being worth the attention are astronomically low.

If you have suggestions on how I can play differently let me know! I'm doing the best I can.

[shwinnebego]

(In my experience, my playstyle is not any less effective at hunting wolves than anyone else's - at least not on D1. I think town will thank me for drawing attention from wolves in various ways.)

VOTE: shwinnebego

[shwinnebego]

Have you any opinion on his 'I won't disclose my read on catboi', catboi?

I'm struggling to think of a town justifaction for both withholding a read, and saying you are withholding a read without prompting, and I can't think of one.

I can see some occasions when you might feel it would be +town to withold the reasons for a read, in niche circumstances, but the actual read on a specific player?

Maybe there is something in your wider experience on the site that gives some idea as to what is behind that.

Honestly I'm just not very smart and don't know how to articulate reasons for my actions very well lol, there's not a lot more to it!

I hope it's still okay for me to play this game even if I don't know what I'm doing!

[shwinnebego]

Either way I'll be quiet for now until someone asks me a question directly - no guarantees I'll be able to answer though

[shwinnebego]

Have you any opinion on his 'I won't disclose my read on catboi', catboi?

I'm struggling to think of a town justifaction for both withholding a read, and saying you are withholding a read without prompting, and I can't think of one.

I can see some occasions when you might feel it would be +town to withold the reasons for a read, in niche circumstances, but the actual read on a specific player?

Maybe there is something in your wider experience on the site that gives some idea as to what is behind that.

Honestly I'm just not very smart and don't know how to articulate reasons for my actions very well lol, there's not a lot more to it!

I hope it's still okay for me to play this game even if I don't know what I'm doing!

...that was a question meant for T3. Why did you answer it?

Because I thought it was for me. Here, I'll put my vote back on you: VOTE: catboi (since you are as good a guess I have for who is evil) and *now* I'll refrain from posting until requested

[shwinnebego]

Well, not meant for T3, but about T3 specifically and a post he made. Which was clear from the context of our surrounding discussion. I have no idea why you read that post and assumed it was about you >_>

Because I am not very precise with my reading of the thread.

[shwinnebego]

VOTE: SavetheDragons

I dislike eliminating shwinniebego here for a few reasons.
1. The first is that I find it likely that if they are a town, they are probably a PR ( or doing some WIFOM thing). I would not want to out them if they are so.
2. I think that their flip doesn't give us much information. Either they are a town that has very much struggled adapting to the meta on this site, or they flip scum, which would be a very attractive bus on a new player. Either way we don't learn much about other players.
3. I honestly don't scumread them that much, they seem too apart from the norm of mafia games like this, so I think their behavior is NAI.
4. I feel that their input will generate discussion that could end up being useful to town.

Instead I feel like StD is a better vote, they overall don't provide much to town.

Shwinniebego, you should post your input if you feel like you need to say something, it will both help you get better and may help town.

I would like StD to post their reads and contribute a bit more substance. It doesn't really matter if you can't post often, but at least try to post something that is useful when you do.

And T3 appears to be avoiding confronting the accusation made at him by Val89, although the accusation doesn't hold a whole lot of weight imo.

Thanks for the refreshingly charitable read on my behavior - I appreciate it Clearly I did not instantly vibe with the meta on this site, but as you suggest my intention is not to troll, to upset people, or to ruin the game/diminish the fun that others are having. If my behavior has had that impact, I do apologize.

I'll provide a bit more analysis now - I hope it is helpful! Let me know if you have further questions (this goes for anyone)

General Wu plays confidently, and attracted a quick pileup of votes, many of which melted away. My sense is genuinely that a quick pile-on followed by a quick melt-away is indeed suspicious, as it speaks to some coordinated action behind the scenes. While my specific sus on catboi for unvoting when I threatened to hammer was largely sneered at as irrational, trollish, and inattentive to the longer-term dynamics of a game like this (namely, that we lose information by truncating Day 1 prematurely), I maintain that the overall dynamic that I pointed out - whether or not we agree that catboi in particular ought to be the target of suspicion that emerges from said dynamic - is valid, and merits attention. Moreover, I also maintain that without the legitimate threat of a hammer on a player, vote pressure relatively early on during Day 1 becomes meaningless, and so I do not apologize for my jocular hammer threat, nor do I concede that it was unambiguously a silly thing to proffer. I do not see tremendous value in debating this exact matter further, but I hope this makes sense to at least some of you!

Val has been doing an impressive amount of leg work in digging up meta-evidence from prior games. This may be typical play for Val. On the one hand this level of effort may prove useful to town down the road. On the other hand, this style of "data-driven" meta argumentation is easy to get away with fudging for scum (who's gonna be arsed to fact check, especially late game?) Either way, the promise of this working in our favor in the long run makes Val an unattractive quorum.

navigator has been making arguments and reads, but I cannot nail down consistent threads from what they post. In this context, I think that navigator would be a great quorum because they have generated a lot of engagement with others. I do think that they have been waffly, too, which can be an evil-tell.

T3 has been in the cross-hairs and would make a high-info quorum regardless of alignment. I do think they are reasonably likely to actually flip evil too, but there's a lot of meta I don't know

SavetheDragons has my favorite playstyle among you bunch, and seems to be among the chillest. Not alignment indicative, but certainly improving my quality of life in this thread with their presence! I wouldn't qanna quorum

Meg - seems earnest in hunting, but I don't have a storng read. I would put them in a similar bucket as navigator in terms of how much info we'd get from a quorum, and I could get behind it

catboi - I don't really feel like talking about catboi at the moment because they have been pretty mean to me, but I actually would guess they are town.

[shwinnebego]

Scwinnebego, I can't help but point out your vote isn't serving much purpose resting where it is if you have decided catboi is probably town.

Good point! VOTE: navigatorv

[shwinnebego]

T3 isn't really fighting for his life here, I don't think he expects to be today's elim. So you'll likely not get a satisfying response from him, Val. Unless you get a wagon going of course, but tbh I've moved my vote around enough as it is.

I'm more interested in a Wu or Shwinn flip at this point. Wu didn't start seriously playing until their life was on the line, which felt more like a panicked scum reaction than a townie one. And other than Shwinn acting anti-town, he never responded to my accusation and isn't including me in his reads. Makes me feel like he wants to look like he's distancing himself from me so that I look suspicious after his flip. I've already been noted for bussing and it honestly looks like he's playing into that.

Nah I just forgot to mention you and didn't notice any of that bus conversation stuff.

my read on Roden: Roden reacted rather strongly to my playstyle (along with some others). Roden also has attracted a decent amount of sus. Someone else can look up the vote flow (not sure how to do that, how have votes stacked nad unstacked on Roden?) but I think this could be a decent quorum in terms of info. On the other hand for some reason most info pertaining to Roden has kinda gone in one ear and out the other for me.

[shwinnebego]

how do you see the vote tally?

[shwinnebego]

i'm not big on long posts but every once in a while i'll pull something out of my butt

You're the best poster in this thread as far as I'm concerned, regardless of your alignment! I commend your playstyle, keep it up.

[shwinnebego]

shwinnie and Roden are the most suspicious people as of right now in my opinion.

I was a pretty strong town read in your eyes up until I suspected you, so it's hard to take this as anything other than OMGUS.

yeah definitely this

[shwinnebego]

I am indeed seeing Wu as more sus now. Hmmmmm....

[shwinnebego]

tsbts?

[shwinnebego]

I've moved into a slight townlean on GeneralWu, and won't be helping you flip him today....

navigator wagon is going to go nowhere

So who do you think is evil

[shwinnebego]

what's v/la

[shwinnebego]

So who do you think is evil

Where is my vote, Schwin?
Whom have I been pushing since I came back from V/LA?

Should be clue there, somewhere...

Also, buddy, it's a newbie game - if you strongly prefer to act like a snarky lil' shit instead of fielding my admittedly naïve questions just let me know and I will direct my inquiries elsewhere - we can save ourselves both some time

[shwinnebego]

Either way, who do you think is evil besides T3?

[shwinnebego]

Hi. I am extremely not in a mason chat with anyone.

[shwinnebego]

VOTE: t3

[shwinnebego]

I have to ask, though, shwinn, since it's still possible you are T3s buddy, although you were always going to say "I'm not a Mason", why did it take this before you voted T3?

Why wasn't T3 your vote yesterday?

There’s probably a longer response but it boils down to “cuz I’m lazy and stupid”

[shwinnebego]

Or I guess cuz I didn’t think he was the most evil seeming person. I guess I should have? I dunno everyone seems slightly evil to me.

[shwinnebego]

is there any reason not to just hammer t3 at this point

[shwinnebego]

What does PoE mean?

[shwinnebego]

I have to ask, though, shwinn, since it's still possible you are T3s buddy, although you were always going to say "I'm not a Mason", why did it take this before you voted T3?

Why wasn't T3 your vote yesterday?

There’s probably a longer response but it boils down to “cuz I’m lazy and stupid”

Or I guess cuz I didn’t think he was the most evil seeming person. I guess I should have? I dunno everyone seems slightly evil to me.

Okay, this sounds fishy.

Blub blub!

[shwinnebego]

Sorry I have a small brain I have two questions for you cerebrally endowed folks:

1. Why would a wolf T3 lie about being in a mason chat with me

2. Why would a town T3 lie about being in a mason chat with me

[shwinnebego]

He's a moron.

I mean you’re right about this but you’re still lying about being in a mason chat with me.

What have I told you in this mason chat? Did we fall in love?

[shwinnebego]

Sorry I have a small brain I have two questions for you cerebrally endowed folks:

1. Why would a wolf T3 lie about being in a mason chat with me

2. Why would a town T3 lie about being in a mason chat with me

For #1, I don't really know. Maybe he's trying to fish for other PRs or something.

For #2, there is no reason for a townie to fakeclaim PR.

I guess I could see wolf T3 lying about a mason chat with me because if we quorum him today and he flips wolf then tomorrow the other wolves could push a misquorum on me by some sort of “well the wolves would never expect you to quorum their made up mason partner!” logic or something, but I think if you then flipped me and saw I was town you’d basically know whoever made that argument was the final wolf

[shwinnebego]

But hang on, you slapped your vote down on T3 within 60 seconds of saying you weren't a mason with T3, so surely you

know

there is no reason for a town!T3 to claim that. Why are you asking?

Because I am not that smart and might be missing something.

[shwinnebego]

I don’t know everything. This is a collaborative game and so I asked my teammates if they might have insights that I lack. Is that not how this game is meant to be played?

[shwinnebego]

It's about a good idea as wiping your arse with a razor blade. There is zero reason at all - T3 isn't town.

Whoa whoa whoa don't insult people who actually wipe their arses with razor blades. I'm one of those people, and I feel very sad after seeing this post.

#NotAllArseRazorWipers

[shwinnebego]

I am starting to think Val might be T3’s partner.

[shwinnebego]

I find their engagement around T3, and also with respect to me, to be disingenuous.

[shwinnebego]

But hang on, you slapped your vote down on T3 within 60 seconds of saying you weren't a mason with T3, so surely you

know

there is no reason for a town!T3 to claim that. Why are you asking?

Mainly this post. It seems like a real town player would know that other town players want to discuss the game and elicit insights from other players about their actions.

To respond to my question in this way strikes me as performative befuddlement.

[shwinnebego]

But hang on, you slapped your vote down on T3 within 60 seconds of saying you weren't a mason with T3, so surely you

know

there is no reason for a town!T3 to claim that. Why are you asking?

Mainly this post. It seems like a real town player would know that other town players want to discuss the game and elicit insights from other players about their actions.

To respond to my question in this way strikes me as performative befuddlement.

Isn't he basically eliciting insights from you though?

Hm I suppose I could see it in that light. I guess I interpret his tone as largely so snide that even when he is ostensibly asking a question I presume that he isn’t actually interested in my response. That’s perhaps my stuff and not actually his fault though now that you mention it.

[shwinnebego]

Well, frankly, I am confused by it. If you aren't sure, and want to consult with teammates, why not do it BEFORE dropping the vote?

I think its your asking of the question "why does a Town!T3 claim mason with me" was perfomative given how quick the vote came after the 'not-mason' claim. Others can make thier own judgements on the matter.

The meta on this site is genuinely a bit baffling.

I’ve been told that (1) we put votes on people to pressure them but wouldn’t seriously hammer them prematurely and (2) by the time you vote you are so committed to your decision that you are signaling that you are not even interested in discussion any more.

Which is it, people?

[shwinnebego]

(Extremely stoned philosophy bro voice) but like, what IS a vote, man?

[shwinnebego]

Sorry I have a small brain I have two questions for you cerebrally endowed folks:

1. Why would a wolf T3 lie about being in a mason chat with me

2. Why would a town T3 lie about being in a mason chat with me

To fish for PR's.

To gambit the nightkill.

I don’t get it. How would you learn power roles this way as a wolf.

Why would a powered town be like “oop, someone claimed to be in a mason chat with someone else, better reveal my power role!”

[shwinnebego]

lol

[shwinnebego]

Sorry I have a small brain I have two questions for you cerebrally endowed folks:

1. Why would a wolf T3 lie about being in a mason chat with me

2. Why would a town T3 lie about being in a mason chat with me

To fish for PR's.

To gambit the nightkill.

I don’t get it. How would you learn power roles this way as a wolf.

Why would a powered town be like “oop, someone claimed to be in a mason chat with someone else, better reveal my power role!”

Because someone can't be a mason and power role in the same way. By the way:

NEVER LIM NAVIGATOR OR SHWINN EVER EVER EVER EVER EVER EVER EVER EVER EVER EVER

Yeah that still doesn’t make sense.

Assuming you’re a wolf, you just claimed to be in a mason chat. I said that no, you are not (a fact that you already know). How does that give you any additional information about whether or not I, or anyone else, has a power?

[shwinnebego]

*claimed to be in a mason chat with me

[shwinnebego]

I agree with Val that it is highly likely that at least one wolf didn't vote T3 after his weird mason claim gambit. Why would they? THey knew he would flip town, and they knew town was likely to quorum a townie yesterday.

I'm looking at General Wu, catboi, StD and Roden as a crew with 1-2 wolves in it.

Of these, others seem to want to quorum General Wu.

I would rank these folks in order of quorum desirability as:

StD - not helping town much despite having a chill playstyle that I dig
Wu - the popular pick and, like I mentioned earlier, I genuinely do think it's odd how quick votes melted off of him. He says it is not sus that this happened, but a wolf Wu would of course say that
catboi - went to some lengths to not vote T3

-----------

Me, Val, and Meg are the only T3 voters left. It would surprise me a lot if there were two wolves on T3 (i.e,, Val and Meg - in other words I consider Val/Meg to be a highly unlikely wolf team, to the degree that if one flips wolf I would basically clear the other as Town in my head)

But I think neither Meg nor Val are a top quorum choice for today in terms of info, and instead we oughtta quorum one of the folks that did not vote T3 (as Val suggests)

Of these, my souldread is StD but I'd happily shift to Wu if that's where we're going
VOTE: SaveTheDragons

[shwinnebego]

oops, forgot Roden - Roden has sorta gone in one ear and out the other but would be the bottom of my picks for todays quorum among the 4 t3 voters, but gonna try to watch their play more today

[shwinnebego]

if someone less lazy than me wants to link to the posts where each of the t3 voters placed their t3 vote (and shared key justifications for 'em) that could be pretty helpful

[shwinnebego]

catboi - went to some lengths to not vote T3

I would like to clarify that Iwas not going to any lengths to not vote T3, the only reason I did not vote him was because I thought he was confirmed scum who attempted to self-hammer and failed. I refrained from voting in the hopes we could discuss and partner hunt further while all the townies were alive. I suppose that's egg on my face, but I really did believe he was conf-scum at that point in time. I probably hammer soone if I know he's town and think there's any possibility he might escape.

In general, I find on/off wagon reasoning to not be the most valuable - in one of my games there was an all-town elimination wagon on town on day 1. However, I don't, in principle, disagree with your vote here and feel at this point STD hasn't gotten enough heat.

Hm - okay, this is a reasonable defense

[shwinnebego]

There were 5 T3 voters, and catboi was one of them. If I recall, he was first to join me on the wagon. I think you are just plain wrong when you say catboi went to some lengths to avoid a T3 vote.

In any case i didn't say that I thought scum didn't vote T3 after the Mason claim - that can't be what I was saying, can it, because you voted T3 and you are in my pool of suspicion. I said I found it suspicious that people were townreading or showing that they were considering the possibility that T3 was still town after everything he did, which smelt like TMI.

It's a stuble distinction, but an important one, because what I actually said puts you squarely in the crosshairs, and what you misrepresentated me as saying clears you, and I'm wondering if that was the intent...

I'm cool with being in the crosshairs. Either way, yeah, your actual assessment is the one I agree with - folks who townread T3 despite his actions felt like the knew something the rest of us didn't perhaps. Not sure that I fall into that category but I can't really remember what I said.

In light of this, like I said, if someone less lazy than I wants to dig up people's justifications for voting (or not voting) T3 - and please pick the ones that are closer to the end, and ideally after the mason claim - that could be helpful. Prior to that there's a lot of noise.

I do think that Val is playing in a way that I would read as townie, but I don't know his meta and this could totally be wolf playing as hard-nosed. After all, any townie in their right mind would have assumed T3 was scum and pushed hard for it. On the other hand, Val sussing me as hard as he is suggests to me that he is town, since a wolf wouldn't want to go so hard at town.

[shwinnebego]

Look for who was extremely confused at the mason claim and I guarantee you you'll find scum.

Re-reading T3's ISO to try to figure out what the hell happened and this stands out to me now that we know his flip. I think this is where we need to look.

i guess it's just T3 here? i don't really see a good reason why town!T3 claims mason tbh.

Actually, here's a take: this is a post coming from someone who knows T3 will flip town.

VOTE: Save the Dragons

How come?

The language is almost too passive, it doesn't have the feeling I and other people did where we really jumped on T3 for fakeclaiming, it's kind of quizzical in the "oh huh why is he doing this", like he knows T3 isn't scum but has to push him anyway.

Tentative mindmeld.

Yeah I feel this.

[shwinnebego]

stray thought, but was looking back at votecounts because I wasn't sure if who had/hadn't been pushing generalwu, and that wagon feels pure?

I meant to ask this yesterday, but what did you mean by 'pure', in this context?

In the sense that everyone who voted generalwu yesterday, at least on the initial wagon (Roden, Meg, me, T3) is either a townread or confirmed town to me
.

Why? Lotsa folks were voting Wu yesterday, seems like it would be an easy thing for anyone to do. If you would, please enlighten me (in simple language, please, remember, small brain here) as to why the initial Wu voters are townie.

[shwinnebego]

Given the curveball we've been thrown, I don't think we need to rush this one, but in principle, I am also happy starting with StD, for much the same reasons as have come up already. As of this moment, GeneralWu would be my second choice for today.

I think I'll sleep on it before I put down the vote though.

I will say I am surprised that my analysis of the game has converged with Val's, a player whose playstyle felt so diametrically opposed to mine early on.

I don't know what to make of this, but I am naming it.

[shwinnebego]

is

After this exchange, on second look, catboi is looking really good. If he's a wolf, my hat goes off to him for the foresight required to play this situation in the way that he played it.

Anyway, my top quorum choice remains SaveTheDragons followed by General Wu

It gets fuzzier beyond that, but I think catboi may well be at the bottom of my list. With the "if you're a wolf my hat goes off to you" caveat

[shwinnebego]

Schwin/StD is too easy of a hero solve for me because otherwise they made their buddying way too blatant. I think we have a good chance of flipping scum within these two though.

I'd probably be better off not responding to this since it doesn't really matter but, if I'm not mistaken the 'buddying' was pretty much unilateral, aka me commending StD's chill playstyle in an otherwise aggro game. Conversely, I don't recall StD saying anything to buddy up to me, but correct me if I'm wrong.

[shwinnebego]

Effort post time, fuckos! Let's start around the mason claim but before my negation of it:

GeneralWu (4): Roden, MegAzumarill, catboi, T3

Here, we have catboi's claim that the Wu wagon is 'pure' - strange, but not indicative of anything on its own

stray thought, but was looking back at votecounts because I wasn't sure if who had/hadn't been pushing generalwu, and that wagon feels pure? I don't think that's a fool-proof metric as I've seen and been part of an all-town wagon on town, but that was partly motivated by deadline pressure and this decidedly wasn't. Will think more tomorrow.

And her, we have navigator and Val being on the same page. Good for Val.

Personally I'm with Val; I don't quite buy T3 being a mason on just his word alone. I'd like to hear from Shwin before making any judgements about lynching

So obviously T3 and I are not scum buddies, and this entire logic doesn't really work since T3 flipped Town. But, I think that Roden's approach to speculation here seems like a couple degrees of galaxy brain downstream from a *geunine* presumption that T3 was Evil, that it puts Roden into TOWN territory for me.

I have a theory about T3 that formulated when I went to bed last night, but idk if I want to pursue it.

I said earlier that I think Shwinn was either scum claiming or troll claiming. And if he's troll claiming, he's likely a PR. In this scenario, I have a feeling T3 is his buddy, due to the way both are acting and reacting, but also because of a gut feeling.

Which to me, means they're either scum buddies or Masons.

Like I said, I'm hesitant to pursue this. Either I'm making a huge hero solve or this ends in disaster because I'm outting both Masons. I think they both have had scummy behavior, but if they're doing it on purpose to avoid getting NK'd I'm gonna be so sad.

Or... maybe I'm literally masons with shwinn.

You ever get hyped about being right and then get sad that you were right at the same time

GeneralWu (4): Roden, MegAzumarill, catboi, T3

stray thought, but was looking back at votecounts because I wasn't sure if who had/hadn't been pushing generalwu, and that wagon feels pure? I don't think that's a fool-proof metric as I've seen and been part of an all-town wagon on town, but that was partly motivated by deadline pressure and this decidedly wasn't. Will think more tomorrow.

Which was motivated by deadline pressure and which wasn't?
When they were all voting me, there was still a lot of time left.

Here, a bit apropos nothing, Roden notes that StD is likely town based on meta. This is unconvincing to me, as I imagine StD would play similarly as a wolf too. Roden reads town to me still. If we flip StD and StD is evil, I'll have another look.

I would like to suggest switching on StD or GeneralWu whenever shwin confirms the masonry.

This is where I'm at right now. Masons might actually just make this easier if we can narrow it down this much before Day 2.

Personally I'm with Val; I don't quite buy T3 being a mason on just his word alone. I'd like to hear from Shwin before making any judgements about lynching

Personally, I also wouldn't believe T3's claim alone either, and I agree that we can't 100% believe T3 without shwinnie's word. I don't think it's very good to pretend to scumread your mason partner...

And T3, if you're fakeclaiming as town, though you say it's NAI for you, it's a bad move for town...

But assuming T3 and shwinnie are masons:
My pool is everybody except myself, catboi, std, and the masons for today.

I think std is town; I checked his other games and he usually just doesn't post anything more than one-liners and stuff as town.

And here, Val suggests a high degree of understanding the implications of the situation that we are in - an analysis that made zero sense to me at the time (sorry, dumb noob) but in retrospect makes a ton of sense - townie points for Val:

The very next person who needs to weigh in on this next is exactly Shwinn.

Look, I know this is a newbie game, and I can't be too cross with you all as a result, but Jesus H Christ - was that not spelt out clearly enough?

This gambit only works if you all open your mouths and start speculating what you will do "if if proves T3 is a mason", which is as good as saying "I'm not the PR you looking for for" as far as letting scum know who T3s hidden partner should be targeting for the NK when and if schwin comes along as says "Hold up, I'm no Mason!".

Schwin needs to come along and tell us whats up. Just Schwin. Do us a favour and chill out until that happens. There are 3 days left, and even if you personally beleive the Mason claim, that gives you time to pivot once schwin has posted.

Hindsight is 20/20, but T3 was correct here - of course, I still have no idea why T3 did this whole gambit other than to give us a buncha wine in front of us to point at and speculate over today

If I'm scum fakeclaiming then mechanically I'm in autoloss.

Only is both schwin is your partner, and also actually claims to be a Mason with you before the CC.

Folks, T3 knows this - don't be taken in it by it. Wait for schwin before any more of you basically claim VT.

my counter claim...

Hi. I am extremely not in a mason chat with anyone.

AND Val's response. Val, just to be absolutely clear, do you also think that the T3 town flip tends to paint catboi as town?

What a shock.

You heard it here first, folks - I'm pretty sure catboi is T3s scumbuddy.

Details to follow, but I'm on my phone right now.

[shwinnebego]

Dammit I forgot to comment on the General Wu quotes.

Put it this way: I am very interested in hearing a comprehensive assessment of the gamestate (that doesn't mean long-winded, however you prefer to communicate is fine - I think there are many just fine ways to share information and analysis in this game) from exactly General Wu and SaveTheDragons

Please share your thoughts. Why did T3 fakeclaim? What do you make of the folks who voted for him? Of the folks who didn't? Who do you think is most likely to be evil right now, and why? Cheers friends!

[shwinnebego]

Here, a bit apropos nothing, Roden notes that StD is likely town based on meta.

He does? Where?

goddammit it was in there somewhere i must have fucked up the quoting

[shwinnebego]

Personally I'm with Val; I don't quite buy T3 being a mason on just his word alone. I'd like to hear from Shwin before making any judgements about lynching

Personally, I also wouldn't believe T3's claim alone either, and I agree that we can't 100% believe T3 without shwinnie's word. I don't think it's very good to pretend to scumread your mason partner...

And T3, if you're fakeclaiming as town, though you say it's NAI for you, it's a bad move for town...

But assuming T3 and shwinnie are masons:
My pool is everybody except myself, catboi, std, and the masons for today.

I think std is town; I checked his other games and he usually just doesn't post anything more than one-liners and stuff as town.

Nope, that wasn't Roden at all - it was GEneral Wu. my mistake.

[shwinnebego]

Come to think of it, yeah that logic "I think std is town; I checked his other games and he usually just doesn't post anything more than one-liners and stuff as town." doesn't pass the sniff test for me.

Making a poor argument isn't inherently scummy in my view (that would be rich coming from a half-baked non-rigorous poster like me), more just saying I strongly disagree with it.

[shwinnebego]

I agree with your overall thoughts about good play during the RVS stage. I agree that off-topic posting is fine and maybe even helpful because it creates more opportunities for engagement in what is otherwise a void of nothingness.

I also agree that Meg's argument about pressure voting and hammering is pretty nonsensical since, apparently, no one gets hammered early around here anyway.

Beyond that, though, your arguments about Meg become less compelling to me, though I do not find them at all townie anymore. I know they're largely unavailable this game day, but I'd certainly like to hear more from them given the discussion that has transpired so far if that's possible.

Otherwise, though, I'd put them into my potentially scummier bucket

Towniest folks: catboi, Val

Limited read, but decidedly not townie: Roden, Meg

Favorite quorums: Save the Dragons, General Wu

[shwinnebego]

If the evil team is Val & catboi, well played.

[shwinnebego]

Roden: Are you holding off on voting StD because you're afraid of putting him one vote away from hammer? Or do you have other suspicions that you would like to discuss with the thread

[shwinnebego]

By the way, I'm sorry I was mean to you on day 1, shwinnebego.

Aw thanks, I appreciate that

[shwinnebego]

Actually I forgot about my earlier argument re: Roden - specifically, Roden galaxy braining a bit from the supposition that T3 was evil, something that an evil person could do if they put themselves firmly into town's shoes, but requires a bit more work. This puts Roden more into town territory for me.

Thus:


Towniest folks: catboi, Val, Roden

Limited read, but decidedly not townie: Meg

Favorite quorums: Save the Dragons, General Wu

[shwinnebego]

Dammit. The more I look at StD's original post: "i guess it's just T3 here? i don't really see a good reason why town!T3 claims mason tbh."

The less it actually seems like it's based on knowing something the rest of us don't.

That actually seems like...a pretty normal thing to say at the time. I said something similar myself. I couldn't figure out why a Town T3 would fakeclaim mason, and following from that I presumed that T3 was probably evil. It was clearly a gambit; but I couldn't for the life of me identify an even remotely viable *town* gambit that T3 could be attempting. StD's statement suggests that he was thinking something similar. I'm losing track of why I thought StD was evil in the first place.

[shwinnebego]

UNVOTE:

[shwinnebego]

oops that didn't work

[shwinnebego]

whatever just don't hammer him yet let's wait for more people to weigh in

[shwinnebego]

Come to think of it, yeah that logic "I think std is town; I checked his other games and he usually just doesn't post anything more than one-liners and stuff as town." doesn't pass the sniff test for me.

Making a poor argument isn't inherently scummy in my view (that would be rich coming from a half-baked non-rigorous poster like me), more just saying I strongly disagree with it.

Don't be too hard on yourself - I think your recent analysis has been great, I wish I had more to add on to it.

I have to ask what was going on with your day 1, though. Is it more typical for how you play to mess around on day 1 and get serious on later days?

Indeed pretty much this.

On my home forum we tend to almost exclusively shitpost and joke around until about 30 minutes before deadline on day 1, and I was somewhat surprised at the degree of ire my jocular style garnered from a Very Serious Mafia vibe angle on day 1 (when I don’t personally feel that I generate much value for town by engaging in hard nosed town sleuthery; on the contrary, I find that I get wolves to slip up more precisely in their responses to my jocular all-shitposting manner of engagement)

[shwinnebego]

*specifically on Day 1. On later days I play more normally, as just shitposting through multiple game days of mafia would be, uh, tiresome for everyone including myself (and I’d hardly even be playing mafia at that point)

[shwinnebego]

I would in fact like to

UNVOTE

until we hear from StD at least

I would like to hear StD's analysis of the gamestate

[shwinnebego]

Please share your thoughts. Why did T3 fakeclaim? What do you make of the folks who voted for him? Of the folks who didn't? Who do you think is most likely to be evil right now, and why? Cheers friends!

I don't know why T3 fake claimed.
But since you disproved T3's claim, T3 was guaranteed to be the lynch that day, so it's hard to distinguish who's towny and scummy based on votes alone.

This is a decent point by General Wu that we would do well to remember, regardless of General Wu's alignment. My gut tells me that the wolves split their vote yesterday - one of them probably voted for T3 and one of them likely did not. This is a guess, but it seems to make sense. To some degree it depends on how well coordinated the wolves are.

I feel like I had stronger reads right after the flip, and as time passes I'm less confident in them and am regressing to a "I don't know anything" gameread. That's not great. Should I just stick to my guns?

[shwinnebego]

I would in fact like to UNVOTE until we hear from StD at least

I would like to hear StD's analysis of the gamestate

I have to point here that given the way StD is playing this game, the first sentence of that post makes the second much more unlikley.

You seemed to have an understanding to this when discussing why you were "joking" about hammering GeneralWu D1, so you might want to have a rethink on this one.

I didn't say I'd wait around forever He says he's catching up on the thread. Let's hear what he has to say. Anyway, I'll vote StD when I am personally good and ready; I won't be taking into account pressure from others to do so.

[shwinnebego]

Val, can you give me a sense of where your reads are at right now? I thought the way you went after T3 on day 1 was towny even if it ended up being wrong, but your focus to this point has been very narrow-band and I want to see you broaden your view and talk about other players, since the two main ones you had reads on day 1 are now dead.

Seconded.

[shwinnebego]

no because i didn't know what alignment T3 was

knowing that he's town makes me go hmm

Your logic here makes such obvious sense that I struggle to believe that Val, who is possessed of perfectly adequate cognitive faculties as far as I can tell, is genuinely failing to follow it.

[shwinnebego]

So, what you are saying is that you saw me, who you think is scum, basically come out of gate on a flimsy case and basically ride it to a mislim D1, and you sat back and watched it happen; and decided only to come out now?

....We didn't know it was a mislim until T3 flipped. And you know that. Why are you acting like you don't know that?

[shwinnebego]

Do you, StD, agree 100% there is scum between me and you?

This question makes no sense. What did StD say that would conceivably suggest that he thinks this?

[shwinnebego]

Val, you're making less and less sense to me. I hope you can help me understand your process here, because right now it's confusing (are you deliberately behaving irrationally?) and I don't like it.

[shwinnebego]

hmmm. hmm. hhmmmmmmhhhmmm.

i thought it was interesting because i wonder what he was thinking.

VOTE: Meg

If possible, can you explain why you just moved your vote?

Please spell it out plainly if possible, unless you really really think that continuing to post cryptically will benefit town. If you do not do that, then barring someone else explaining to me why your cryptic approach to posting helps town in a sufficiently compelling fashion, I will interpret your actions and cryptic justifications for them as wolfish behavior.

[shwinnebego]

Alright Val, talk to me.

[shwinnebego]

Also Roden - what's up? How're you feeling about StD? Last I checked you were vibing with the TMI suspicion that some of us were feeling. Do you still feel that way? Would appreciate your full game analysis.

[shwinnebego]

hmmm. hmm. hhmmmmmmhhhmmm.

i thought it was interesting because i wonder what he was thinking.

VOTE: Meg

Specifically, does your vote indicate that Meg is now your top choice for quorum today? If so, would you please tell us why?

[shwinnebego]

Once Val and StD respond to my most recent questions, and once Roden chimes in with an analysis of the gamestate, I intend to reciprocate with an updated analysis of the gamestate (brief or long, not sure yet), and to place my vote.

[shwinnebego]

This, actually makes Wu a PoE choice for me. If the scum pair isn't StD/Shwinn, then no matter who the one scum is between the grouped three, Wu always flips red here.

@Shwinn:

Are you against a Wu vote? I think you're just conftown if Wu flips red.

Appreciate your engagement and so on, but I must say "if the scum pair isn't StD/Shwinn then no matter who the one scum is between the grouped three, Wu always flips red here" seems like ... an increasingly tenuous series of logical leaps, to the point that the final conclusion you land it appears utterly divorced from reality.

You can't possibly be this certain that catboi and Meg are good.

[shwinnebego]

hmmmmmmmmmmmmm

VOTE: SaveTheDragons

This is my best guess for today.

[shwinnebego]

no because i didn't know what alignment T3 was

knowing that he's town makes me go hmm

Folks, I didn't really thinking I needed to explain in detail why this is crap. I know shwinn came in and said something but I assumed it was scum playacting. Since Roden is also now throwing this around, I guess I'll have to explain.

Until the fakeclaim, StD was openly townreading T3.

T3 and Navigator seem town to me, still reading the rest of y'all

t3 is town i bet. I feel like he would have done something crazy as scum by now. i don't know how accurate that read is but that's what my gut's saying.

Okay, thank you. This helped me to clarify the main thrust of the case.

He did not, perhaps deliberately, give a read on me yesterday.

There are two possibilties, and the question I posed to try and narrow it down that seemed to twig you all was aimed at distigushing between the two.

Either Std was scumreading me yesterday, in which case, as I suggested, he saw someone he thought was scum pushing on someone he thought was town, and decided to say NOTHING about it. I mean, town have decided it would be fun to just straight up throw this game, but what are the chances two townies decide to do that? I think this scenario can be ruled out, and StDs answer seems to imply the second, anyhow.

The other scenario, and the one that StD seems to suggest we are in, is that he was actually townreading me yesterday, and then reconsidered when he say that T3 was in fact, a mislim. I'm going to ask you all to reflect if any of you seriously thought that T3 was going to flip green there, and if so, why you didn't speak up sooner. I think we ALL (with the exception of the 2 scum) expected a red cad there; so StD actual case is "Looking back at it with hindsight, Val started a push on T3 that ended up wrong".

You know, I could possibly buy that that might be grounds for a little bit of suspicion, a reason to start looking at a slot. If we are seriously going to start scumreading anyone who is wrong about anyone, we are in some trouble, but the reason THAT makes no sense in this context is that catboi was ALSO pushing that wagon; as he said himself, there wouldn't have been a T3 wagon without him, and yet, StD says nothing about Catboi, in fact, he gives him a strong townread. If StD was truely re-evaluating postflip, I think catboi would have had to take some flack too - after all, StD has been playing long enough to know it's easier as scum to move forward with a miswagon someone else has started that to invent an entirely original and plausible enough case on a townie to start a wagon from scratch.

[shwinnebego]

Roden, you said you wanted to cast the hammer vote. You still gonna do that?

[shwinnebego]

(There could still be more information to be garnered - specifically I'd be interested in a renewed catboi take and a renewed General Wu take - past that I feel like we might be spinning wheels)

[shwinnebego]

hmmmmmmmmmmmmm

VOTE: SaveTheDragons

This is my best guess for today.

Roden, you said you wanted to cast the hammer vote. You still gonna do that?

I haven't read everything yet, but I feel like these posts are trying to encourage an early hammer. Shwinnie's repeated desires for an early hammer (including the fact that he wanted to hammer out of boredom on day 1) make him suspicious.

Yes, I find the wildly long days on this forum fairly excruciating and generally support hammering early. I'm unlikely to ever want to let these ridiculously long games actually run their course.

[shwinnebego]

General Wu: would you support an StD quorum?
StD: would you support a General Wu quorum?

[shwinnebego]

It would be easy for scum partners to say "yes" to that, so we'd need to find a way to get you to put you money where your mouth is. But, please respond. Ya know, for the fucking record.

[shwinnebego]

hmmmmmmmmmmmmm

VOTE: SaveTheDragons

This is my best guess for today.

Roden, you said you wanted to cast the hammer vote. You still gonna do that?

I haven't read everything yet, but I feel like these posts are trying to encourage an early hammer. Shwinnie's repeated desires for an early hammer (including the fact that he wanted to hammer out of boredom on day 1) make him suspicious.

Yes, I find the wildly long days on this forum fairly excruciating and generally support hammering early. I'm unlikely to ever want to let these ridiculously long games actually run their course.

In all seriousness, does no one else agree that we are starting to hit diminishing returns on discussion?

[shwinnebego]

Yes.

i do not think discussing this benefits the town

did you ever make your case against me or is it entirely based on me saying interesting to something

I find it highly 'interesting' that StD continues to try and draw me into a discussion on this. It's not specified, but I think it's clear he is talking to me, wanting ME specifically to post a sucmcase against him and get back into this discussion he has demostrated he knows is anti-town, despite being almost universally scumread at this point.

I actually think the way STD backed diown on Val is kind of towny

I find it off putting and borderline suspicious that you refuse to simply articulate a case in response to StD. If it’s the TMI argument, just say that.

Otherwise you are just saying “I don’t need to make a case, evetyone already KNOWS you’re evil” which scans as a bald faced attempt to will into being a self fulfilling tautology of the highest order.

I’m still down to quorum StD but Val has made at least three deeply sub-par posts in the past 24 hours and I don’t really trust Val anymore.

Preciesly because he is continuing to draw my slot into that discussion, I don't think you can make that conclusion. Instead, I read it as scum who thinks they have acheived what they set out to achieve with the pillow push on my slot, and intends for scum to deal with it 'privately', so to speak. If that is what is going to happen, I'll rest easy knowing I outted at least one scum in the process.

VOTE: SaveTheDragons

That is E-1.

It looks to me like the game is starting to stall a bit now, so I think now is the right time to put back the vote.

[shwinnebego]

Dammit I put my comment inside the quote by accident - here is what I meant to say:

I find it off putting and borderline suspicious that you refuse to simply articulate a case in response to StD. If it’s the TMI argument, just say that.

Otherwise you are just saying “I don’t need to make a case, evetyone already KNOWS you’re evil” which scans as a bald faced attempt to will into being a self fulfilling tautology of the highest order.

I’m still down to quorum StD but Val has made at least three deeply sub-par posts in the past 24 hours and I don’t really trust Val anymore.

[shwinnebego]

Does anyone other than StD himself strongly object to quoruming StD? Please say your piece if so.

[shwinnebego]

val is town

When did you decide this?

[shwinnebego]

a while ago

you put a vote on Val at 1:46pm yesterday. you decided he's town between now and then?

[shwinnebego]

We're all over the fucking place as a group lol, I'm ready to flip someone and end this day

[shwinnebego]

Val, stop twisting StD's words and conflating two VERY OBVIOUSLY DISTINCT issues.

Issue 1: What is your case on StD?

StD doesn't understand it, and to be honest I'm starting to lose track of what your case on him is too. Stop responding in these weird, obtuse, evasive ways, and *especially* stop conflating this issue with

Issue 2: what StD thinks about your play/alignment

I can't believe *I*, a stupid person, am having to break this shit down for you.

[shwinnebego]

If you have a case on StD state it.

If you believe you've already said it, then do one of:

1. Restate it succinctly and move on
2. Say "I have already expressed my case adequately and don't care to do it again"
3. Link to said explanations
4. Just stop responding altogether, if you believe that you've said what you need to say.

Rather than pursuing one of these normal fucking courses of action, you are electing, WILDLY, utterly, maddeningly, bafflingly, to:

5. Flail, conflate, confuse, complain, and obfuscate.

Cut it the fuck out if you are town.

[shwinnebego]

Val is either an unclear thinker, an unclear writer, or a wolf.

[shwinnebego]

Like I would literally prefer "I actually don't really have a clear case on you it's just my best guess, sorry" to whatever the fuck nonsense train you're on

[shwinnebego]

In a world where StD is town, I actually think it's likely that Val and catboi and even General Wu are also town and that the scum is exactly Meg and Roden

[shwinnebego]

People who have good analysis: catboi, meg, savethedragons
people whose analysis is defective: roden, general wu, val

favorite quorum for today: savethedragons (for exactly the same reasons i said 3-4 pages ago)

my second favorite quorum is now more like meg, roden, or val
over general wu

mainly, though, the venn diagram between "who i think is evil" and "whose arguments make sense to me" is decidedly not a circle. i didnt think this was a challenging concept, Roden

[shwinnebego]

Roden I’m not “desperately trying to save StD” - that descriptor would far more accurately apply to you, the person who refused to hammer him. I would hammer him right now if I had the power to do so.

[shwinnebego]

Roden, who are your top two picks for quorum today in order

[shwinnebego]

Also Roden I am not defending SavetheDragons’ *alignment* I am defending their argumentation vis-a-vis Val in a recent, specific interaction. As I said, Val is either an unclear thinker, an unclear writer, or a wolf; and it’s quite likely that he is an unclear thinker and unclear writer.

None of that is germane to STD’s alignment in this game. I do struggle to believe that an intelligent person would fail to grasp this distinction, and since I believe you to be an intelligent person I find you suspicious.

[shwinnebego]

I can try to put words together on it sometimes tomorrow. I'm second guessing my read on STD, mainly.

I thought you told me to wait until day 3 to get paranoid and second guess myself

[shwinnebego]

People who have good analysis: catboi, meg, savethedragons
people whose analysis is defective: roden, general wu, val

Which analysis by StD do you think is 'good'?

Mostly them calling you on your bullshit and not letting you get away with crummy argumentation, while the rest of the players in this game seem rather content to let your weak arguments pass relatively unexamined.

If you are not a wolf, then wolves benefit from your playstyle in my view.

[shwinnebego]

Fair enough - if you don't want to spell things out for me upon my request that is your prerogative. If you are confident that everyone else is in a lockstep mindmeld with you, great. I'd like to hear from others.

[shwinnebego]

Roden seems pretty damn sure that I'm a wolf.

Roden, how do you reconcile my consistent vote on StD coupled with you having never voted him with the "shwin is flailing desperately to defend StD" narrative?

Genuinely curious how you've squared that circle in your head.

[shwinnebego]

Roden seems pretty damn sure that I'm a wolf.

Roden, how do you reconcile my consistent vote on StD coupled with you having never voted him with the "shwin is flailing desperately to defend StD" narrative?

Genuinely curious how you've squared that circle in your head.

Because you never even attempted to build a case on StD but I did. Just because I didn't vote him yet doesn't mean I wasn't going to, I've already made it clear why hammering early is a bad idea and anti-town. The results speak for themselves, you spewed TMI from getting too antsy. I don't think you're unaware of what's going on with Val either, since it's pretty obvious at this point and I feel kinda dumb talking around it.

What I'm not understanding is why you would think it looks townie to hard defend StD here, regardless of your alignment. As I said, you haven't given us a scum case and you instead reaffirmed how much you vibe with him despite scum reading him. It implies that you at the very least don't expect him to flip red. Coupled with your sudden hard defense coming in just as I suggested that Wu could be the PoE choice makes it look like you have ulterior motives. This mainly comes from my own read/PoE on Wu but also Meg's read on Wu as well since I've been town reading them.

Is there a reason you appear to be against a Wu elim? Because he went from one of your top quorum to a 4th place threat the moment he was even considered as an elim.

I don't really vibe with this version of events.

I'm not against a Wu elim.

Do I think StD will flip red? Maybe. I think it's more likely than not that he will flip green, though. I think it's more likely than not that any of you will flip green, since we have 7 people in this game and only 2 of them are evil and I don't feel especially certain about anyone. I sure would like to flip StD to find out at this point, though, since I don't see any other flip giving us as much or more information. I'm ready to do that shit right now.

I actually disagree that we are learning more right now. I feel like posts like yours are either evidence of a townie getting led further astray by spinning our town wheels, or a wolf creating more distracting information. Either way, I genuinely think it is in town's best interest to go ahead and hammer someone, preferably StD, like, now.

[shwinnebego]

If both you and Val are town, then I suppose I'm struggling quite to bit to understand either of your reasoning. I can't seem to get on the same page as either of you.

If we flip StD, and StD flips green, and both town!you and town!Val pivot to presuming that I am evil based on flimsy reasoning (something something TMI) and mislim me leading to a town loss, that will be on you.

[shwinnebego]

(Assuming all three of us survive to tomrrow, which, if I was a wolf!Meg or wolf!catboi or wolf!Wu I would be absolutely certain to allow, given how eager we seem to be to take one another out)

[shwinnebego]

Roden seems pretty damn sure that I'm a wolf.

Roden, how do you reconcile my consistent vote on StD coupled with you having never voted him with the "shwin is flailing desperately to defend StD" narrative?

Genuinely curious how you've squared that circle in your head.

Because you never even attempted to build a case on StD but I did. Just because I didn't vote him yet doesn't mean I wasn't going to, I've already made it clear why hammering early is a bad idea and anti-town. The results speak for themselves, you spewed TMI from getting too antsy. I don't think you're unaware of what's going on with Val either, since it's pretty obvious at this point and I feel kinda dumb talking around it.

What I'm not understanding is why you would think it looks townie to hard defend StD here, regardless of your alignment. As I said, you haven't given us a scum case and you instead reaffirmed how much you vibe with him despite scum reading him. It implies that you at the very least don't expect him to flip red. Coupled with your sudden hard defense coming in just as I suggested that Wu could be the PoE choice makes it look like you have ulterior motives. This mainly comes from my own read/PoE on Wu but also Meg's read on Wu as well since I've been town reading them.

Is there a reason you appear to be against a Wu elim? Because he went from one of your top quorum to a 4th place threat the moment he was even considered as an elim.

I don't really vibe with this version of events.

I'm not against a Wu elim.

Do I think StD will flip red? Maybe. I think it's more likely than not that he will flip green, though. I think it's more likely than not that any of you will flip green, since we have 7 people in this game and only 2 of them are evil and I don't feel especially certain about anyone. I sure would like to flip StD to find out at this point, though, since I don't see any other flip giving us as much or more information. I'm ready to do that shit right now.

I actually disagree that we are learning more right now. I feel like posts like yours are either evidence of a townie getting led further astray by spinning our town wheels, or a wolf creating more distracting information. Either way, I genuinely think it is in town's best interest to go ahead and hammer someone, preferably StD, like, now.

Tbh I'm not vibing with your post either. Calling it my "version of events" is just a loaded accusation meant to discredit me without actually challenging what I said. I'm telling you my perspective and read on the situation, which is inherently subjective and biased regardless of my alignment.

The rest of your post just reads as a thinly veiled threat, and your accusation that I'm either being led astray or a wolf looks really bad considering it was your statements that led us here. If you're town then I highly recommend stepping back and re-evaluating how you're being perceived, because I don't want to 1v1 a townie come tomorrow.

I disagree that my statements led us here.

I have at no point defended StD's towniness. I have only pushed back against Val's weak reasoning, which is a good thing for town players to do.

You are the one who has conflated these two distinct matters and remains steadfast in your refusal, or frustratingly persistent in your inability, to disentangle them. That conflation is what has led us here, and there is one person who is responsible for it: you. If you are town, please for the love of god use whatever brain power you have to grasp these distinctions.

[shwinnebego]

brain power is the wrong word, sorry i'm genuinely not trying to be a jerk, i'm just struggling to believe that you really think pushing back against Val is the same thing as trying to stop an StD quorum

[shwinnebego]

We might just not see eye to eye on this and whatever, but I really do think that I can (1) maintain that StD is my top quorum pick and (2) hold other players to a high standard of rigor in argumentation, *yes even if they are accusing the person who I too find suspicious* - in fact I would contend that it is *wolfish* to let any argument fly so long as it is directed at the person I would like to see quorumed; we want to be right for the right reasons, as town.

[shwinnebego]

It is wolfish to want to see a particular player quorumed by Any Means Necessary.

It is townish to carefully scrutinize arguments from all players, regarding all players.

[shwinnebego]

LAMIST?

[shwinnebego]

Vote count please?

[shwinnebego]

I support catboi’s vote. I like being at double E-1. Let’s have some actual stakes here. There isn’t anything close to an airtight case on Angie right now.

Hey Roden, if you wanna eliminate Meg but don’t wanna be the hammer I’m happy to move my vote to hammer Meg.

[shwinnebego]

*on anyone

[shwinnebego]

Roden is correct that I generally suspect them. If they hammer scum today, they would drop precipitously in my list of suspects tomorrow. I generally consider a bus relatively unlikely today since the cases were so weak that I think if I was scum I would have just pushed a different target. Especially if I was a more experienced player.

[shwinnebego]

I do agree with catboi that “it’s pretty likely to find scum” between STD and Meg, but with 7 players remaining that’s not a terribly high probability bar to pass

[shwinnebego]

(I would basically say that about any combination of two of you. At this exact moment I tend to read Val as townier. I still strongly feel that my learning hit diminishing returns some time back on this game day)

[shwinnebego]

VC?

[shwinnebego]

I think you're town regardless, shrug. I won't hold it against you if you vote StD here and he flips town. I think there's an extremely high likelihood of scum between the two of them no matter what.

Yeah, these don't feel like TvT wagons tbh.

Roden is correct that I generally suspect them. If they hammer scum today, they would drop precipitously in my list of suspects tomorrow. I generally consider a bus relatively unlikely today since the cases were so weak that I think if I was scum I would have just pushed a different target. Especially if I was a more experienced player.

Yeah I figured you did. I gave it more thought last night about your actions and I might've just jumped the gun. Not necessarily saying I'm taking back what I said, but I don't feel as strong about my suspicions on you as I did earlier.

Idk how to feel about the possibility of a bus, but I agree it's at least less likely to happen today, mostly due to what happened with T3 though.

I support catboi’s vote. I like being at double E-1. Let’s have some actual stakes here. There isn’t anything close to an airtight case on Angie right now.

Hey Roden, if you wanna eliminate Meg but don’t wanna be the hammer I’m happy to move my vote to hammer Meg.

Because you think I'm paired with them, right?

If you're trying to gambit on whether or not I'd protect scum!Meg, that kinda puts pressure on me to actually vote them. If you want them gone, then switch your vote. But don't try to influence my vote if you plan to park your vote on the opposing wagon.

Nah I don’t think you’re paired with them lol. This might be another cultural difference from the website I’ve played this game on before but I would very rarely think about possible pairs at this stage of the game.

I was just curious if you’d be down to hammer.

[shwinnebego]

My heart is trigger happy but I think my mind knows I should wait. Lucky for y’all I’m sober right now

[shwinnebego]

alright i'm bored, if Roden won't hammer I will

I've been ready to hammer for literal days now lol VOTE: MegAzumarill

If he flips green I'm sure many of you will be eager to lose the game by quoruming me tomorrow. Just don't do it lol.

YOLO!!!!!!!!!!

[shwinnebego]

Well I absolutely did not understand that Val was soft claiming mason, and even in retrospect I don't get it. Sorry, you've got a dumb person in this game, enjoy

[shwinnebego]

Hopefully ya'll will now realize that I don't pick up on 'crumbs' lol

Anyway I don't trust any of you especially, oddly enough Wu is my strongest townread right now based on i dunno this game is hard

[shwinnebego]

Having no meta knowledge here is probably making this tougher for me. I do agree that if I was Meg at E-1 I would have told everyone I was the other mason immediately, and I really don't get why he didn't.

me
catboi
wu
std
roden
val

Not only do I not know who to trust exactly, but I actually can't even manage to seriously rule out a single possible evil team. Sorry I'm not very helpful. I might just do whatever Wu does since he's my strongest townread rn

[shwinnebego]

I *guess* catboi/val seems unlikely
I *guess* StD/val also seems unlikely

But honestly if catboi/val are the team their "debate" is good because it creates the conditions for a bus that would make whoever doesn't get quorumed seem town to everyone else.

If literally everyone except me knew that Val was softclaiming mason yesterday, then I gues I'd have to re-read everything that has transpired so far through that lens. This would probably improve my townread on Roden. It might make me think catboi was being more devious as a wolf going along with a presumed town realclaim (precisely why a wolf catboi would vote Meg, knowing that we weren't yet in mis-quorum and lose)

Either way my strong townread on catboi has largely evaporated at least for the moment

I would sort of love it if my very first mostly joke read of the game on catboi was correct lol, and it would prove to me that my chaos play early D1 is just as good as "trying" to "solve" the game with "logic"

I was gonna end thsi post with voting for catboi, but val is saying that sussing him without voting him is suspicious (presumably for some galaxy brain reason that my small brain will never understand), so even though Val's gambits have been rather useless I'm gonna indulge him and VOTE: val

[shwinnebego]

No, hang on, scratch the above - what is this list exactly?

me
catboi
wu
std
roden
val

I thought that was list of your reads towniest to scummiest, but there is Wu, apparently your towniest read, sat in the middle. What is that list, shwin?

just a random order to gather my dumb thoughts

[shwinnebego]

(i'd apologize for being stupid and needing to literally write down who's in the game in order to keep it straight, but then i'm talking to the guy who literally didn't know there were 6 players left and that therefore if we misquorum today we lose lol)

[shwinnebego]

I refuse to believe you act this way as a VT.

Also, it's not impossible for both you and StD to be scum and you 100% know that. If you hard bussed, no one would be likely to suspect you. I'm not saying this is the exact scenario we're in, but it doesn't help town to shoot down any and all suspicion towards you as having scummy intent.

Yeah, this. I like this. I don't like the "it's impossible for me and StD to be on a team together" what an absurd thing to say, like you know this game is about lying and deception right

[shwinnebego]

i think you (Val) spent the entire day convincing yourself i was scum without actually having a reason and now you're just doubling down on it trying to grasp at any straw that could make me look slightly bad

otherwise you would have given your case against me by now that isn't "look how STD responded to the fact i had no case on him!"

because it's shocking that a townie would be upset that someone was coming at them without spelling out their case

I have no idea what StD's alignment is but he continues to completely own Val both in the style and substance of the actual argument, and I continue to love seeing Val eat shit to a more elegant and simple style lol. Appreciate the catharsis But I shouldn't let the fact that I like your playstyle and rather abhor Val's influence unduly my perception of the game state.

[shwinnebego]

We're in MELo, we can't vote freely anymore since a mis-elim means we get endgamed

No, we are not. Don't buy the crap catboi is selling here; We WOULD have been in MELO if scum killed last night, but there was no-kill; and so there is an extra player (six, not seven, I give you that) that there would have otherwise been, and thus another chance today.

In any case, even if catboi truely beleived we were in MELO, wouldn't that be an even stronger reason to vote the slot you are suddenly sure is scum, and encourage others to do so?

There are 6 players, 2 of them are evil

If we quorum a good player, then there will be 5 players, 2 of whom are evil
Then tonight, the evils will nightkill a good, so there will be 4 players, 2 of whom are evil.

This ends the game, because there will be 2 evils and 2 goods. That is parity. Am I misunderstanding how this game works or are you

[shwinnebego]

We're in MELo, we can't vote freely anymore since a mis-elim means we get endgamed

In any case, even if catboi truely beleived we were in MELO,

This really isn't a belief, it's a fact. Unless the wolves fail to submit a nightkill order.

[shwinnebego]

I feel like I'm talking to a flat-earther

[shwinnebego]

Actually I could see Val being a flat-earther, galactic analysis of random noise coupled with boorish denial of very obvious truths

[shwinnebego]

Here's an argument for catboi being evil:

Catboi was one of the most town-read players in the game and in my view would have been the obvious nightkill target for the evil team.

Everyone else has been part of some manner of circular firing squad or another.

Therefore, I think it's likely that, if the nokill was intentional (which seems likely - the night phase was so long and we know folks were generally around), then catboi is likely to be evil.

[shwinnebego]

The way I see it, the wolves realized that town would be in mislim and lose regardless of whether or not there was a nightkill.

With a 6 player mislim and lose, there are more ways for town to get it wrong than there are with 5 player mislim and lose.

Either way well played, wolves. Town solidly has approximately jackshit to go on lol

[shwinnebego]

Yeah I guess I can't actually come to any conclusions about this that don't end up super in the "wine in front of me," flipping back and forth among different explanations thing.;

If catboi is not a wolf then the wolves would want to eliminate catboi because he was so townie, but by not eliminating him they kept him in to attract precisely this sort of suspicion (which would otherwise more likely have fallen on them), but also catboi as a wolf would certainly want to avoid narrowing the field down by surviving, but ... etc

Yeah, not productive, abandoning that line of inquiry. I'm honestly quite flabbergasted right now. I'm keeping my vote on Val cuz he has so many pings against him but, yeah, i'unno

[shwinnebego]

As much as it's a bit of a pain in the ass for whoever replaces Val, I'd like to just eliminate that player today and see what happens.

keepin' my vote on val/val's replacement

I hope folks will join me in hammering val and ending this game, it's getting a bit tedious tbh

[shwinnebego]

(or not ending it if he turns out to be evil, i guess, but if people wanna spend another week of real life time spinning our wheels and relitigating the minutiae of wtf val was on about without val here i will probably need to request a replacement myself)

[shwinnebego]

I have no real guess as to why they no-killed here either. Seems as though it'd be much more advantageous to have someone die. The only think I can think of is conspiracy theorizing around wanting people to vote val. But the fact that Val is going on incoherently about the nokill and acting like there's a spare elimination makes me think this was a move on his part to try to be confusing.


I think barring further input, I'll be voting Val. Even in the event we don't eliminate today, the lack of a hammer provides info on the following day.

Again I would think that it's because with a 6 player mislim and lose, there are more ways for town to get it wrong than there are with 5 player mislim and lose.

[shwinnebego]

damn

what do you think is goin on w this game

[shwinnebego]

I don't think there's any reason I intentionally nokill here. It's a much greater advantage to have the game be winnable with 1 townie being wrong, rather than two. But we can cross that bridge if I'm still around on later days.

yeah good point i guess it's kind of a wash between looking at it this way and looking at it the way i suggested

[shwinnebego]

Just for anyone keeping track, I think me/roden, me/generalwu, and generalwu/roden are ruled out as teams.

Counterpoint: they are extremely not ruled out

[shwinnebego]

Val played

way

scum is mechanically guaranteed to be somewhere within those three.

Can you explain this more clearly

[shwinnebego]

fucked up the quote, can you explain why scum is mechanically guaranteed to be within me, Val and StD?

I don't see anything as mechanically confirmed.

[shwinnebego]

Oh okay, so me and StD have votes on Val, which means that if netiher me, StD, nor Val were scum, then the other two scum would hammer.

You're right. That's actually pretty good stuff right there, the first real piece of information we have in this bloody game.

[shwinnebego]

GG everyone, and good play by the evil team!

I think the long game days here are tough for me.

[shwinnebego]

Was the no NK intentional then?