Newbie 2102 | OPs from 2002 | Postgame

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Vote: Bellaphant

Way too eager to vote someone, must be scum

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I don’t know how to do the vote tags. Help?

And yes I understand RVS and am doing the same thing hence the wink face.

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I saw where it said to bold them but I don’t see any formatting buttons.

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VOTE: VOTE: Bellaphant

I was only using quick reply.

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nya

Does this mean something?

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I'm still here. Had a busy day but have kept up mostly.

Mine.

I don't understand this. Is this in response to something?

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I'm trying to move the game out of RVs, it's ever so slow. Let's try something else: do people have much experience with mafia or other similar games? What got you into it?

I have played one IRL game, one internet game, and I think another online game I didn't finish. All of this was over a decade ago. So I have a tiny bit of experience but it's been quite a while.

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Ok, I really don't know what to do here. I feel like Spartan had a lot to say, which could maybe be interpreted as over eager (at least compared to what the rest of us have provided so far) but at this point I'm just glad for the analysis because I don't have a lot of well defined thoughts of my own yet. The more i wrestle with it the more it starts to feel scummy to me, but I just don't know.

I started to suspect Bella after my RVS vote for her because of the asking turtle why not jump on a bw, felt weird to me but could also just be read as trying to provoke conversation.

I will randomly interject I have no idea what good mafia strategy is.. i feel like discussing what we are thinking is important and I tend to weigh both sides of things naturally, but I'm also worried that when we are too open about our suspicious/thoughts/justifications, we are giving the scum a lot of info with which to try to fool us... just a thought that just came to mind, would love to hear what others, maybe especially SEs think on this topic since I feel like this is my first game despite some experience in the ancient past.

I'm a little suspicious of someone else at the moment but don't have a lot to base it on so I don't want to say any more.

I'm going to VOTE: CCGeek putting him at E-1. I'm curious how that will move discussions. I do think the early claim might be sus possibly along with the concern for saying too much. Not sure the VT as place holder for town aligned thing checks out. Any one have input on that? Have more experienced players seen that before? Also getting a weird vibe off that consensus comment in post 80.

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Can you explain what meatshielding is and how it relates to the VT claim/backpedal? Not sure I’m following what you’re saying

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And to be explicit, are you claiming PR? The implication earlier with the town aligned shorthand comment went over my head, but now you say you *assume* this game has an investigative role, so your claim is VT?

Of course revealing a PR could be bad at this stage because mafia would likely NK if true. But if they didn’t that would look bad. But that means they could not and get us to lynch a PR. Gah ok now I understand WIFOM.

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BTW, I meant to ask @Bella what you meant about EE being too eager to get started in the very first game post. Were you just goofing around or was there some display of eagerness I’m unaware of?

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I also thought turtle jumping off the bw potentially scummy, and I’ve not stopped being somewhat suspicious of spartan. But I’m also not ready to change my vote.

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And thanks for clearing up meatshielding. You haven’t been explicit about your claim despite my direct question. But that might not be anti town, I’ll have an opinion on that D2 depending on how D1 goes.

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Tone is notoriously difficult to understand in writing so I take any analysis of emotion with a grain of salt.

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You know what else is notorious? How long doctors make you wait. That is to say don’t expect as much activity from me the rest of the day, I have to work, but I’ve been waiting on an appointment scheduled an hour ago.

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I don't want analysis of emotion, I just want ee to actually try to compare what they've read to either scum!ses or town ses. There's a lot of numbers thrown about but not a lot of understanding.

However, my focus is on sir rhett now. I don't know what to do with 'vt', 'meatsheild' , 'conf;town', 'i mean however you read me.' feels like flailing.

I was referring to the analysis of how so and so gets angry etc etc. Just pointing out that outside the extremes or when someone explicitly states the emotion they are exhibiting or feigning, it’s super hard to know what tone was intended. Happens to me IRL all the time where I think someone is upset and they are not etc.

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I meant geek, not rhett!!

In what post?

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Personally, I'm content with my vote on Geek for now, even if someone hammers him. By no means sure he is scum, but I think he is presenting as quite possibly scummy, and if he were lynched, his posts would probably be the most valuable in light of the knowledge of his alignment postmortem. Also D1 is just hard and we have to kill somebody eventually LOL. I could still be convinced to change my vote but I'm not feeling any strong need to change the direction of things at this point.

I would like to hear from those not currently on the Geek bandwagon what their thoughts on Geek are.

Bella, Turtle, EE. Rhett basically just did.

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I'm still on my phone, I'll be at an actual computer in a couple hours.

Usually what happens at this point is I'll make my case, if anyone else is on board they'll declare intent to hammer, and we give our

victim

subject a chance to defend and role claim before we make a final decision.


It would be unwise at this point to hammer before all of that happens

Unless I misunderstood, bella already declared intent to hammer. But it wasn't bold so maybe she was saying she plans to?

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@Bella, I find it interesting that you declared an intent to hammer, but then when you return you say you will process the new posts later but 1 minute later vote for turtle. What's the thought process there?

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I am also interested in these scum reads on me that have come out of nowhere lol. Trying to read and post while working, I have some questions and comments, just taking me some time to get it put together

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UNVOTE:

I'm kinda torn on this but I think I want to analyze things a bit more before a hammer drops. My read on CCG might be changing, and my D1 strategy is also being fine tuned. I kind of wanted to see a hammer because Geek seemed scummiest and my thought process is that we have no factual info to go on until the results of D1 so if we mostly agree let's just do it and move on. But a recent post (I think it was EE quoting turtle in another game? Having a hard time finding right now for some reason) mentioned that closing D1 early only benefits scum because there is less conversation to go back and look at in light of how the first one eliminated flips. And that makes sense to me. I was just kind of getting bored and wanting some concrete info to go on.

So i'm unvoting not because I think Geek reads completely town or anything, but I see how a quicker D1 could be anti town in a way i hadn't previously thought of (plus things are less boring now.. part of putting him to E-1 was to get things moving).

Still going to make another post analyzing/questioning some recent developments.

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Poe is like...I town read player X and y, player z claimed pr, and the rest might be scum!

Poe?

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Poe is like...I town read player X and y, player z claimed pr, and the rest might be scum!

Poe?

Nevermind, I see you're responding to the question about PoE.. was thinking Poe was a person.

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Been trying to do a complete read through during the work day but keep getting interrupted. Might have to wait until this evening after wife goes to bed (which is early tonight at least).

I will quickly address two of the comments against me.

The "unnamed suspicion" post from early in the game since it keeps coming up. I guess call it a newb mistake. I was just thinking out loud and frankly don't remember for sure who I had in mind at the time, but I think it was either Spartan or Bella. I do remember that I just didn't want to distract with something very flimsy and just a sort of feeling. I think I had intended to re-read the posts to suss out my own gut reads and post a follow up with details, but things went a different way. In hindsight it was still early enough that holding back is probably anti-town since what we needed was discussion. Lesson learned...

The alleged role fishing was not that at all, but reading it back I see the sus. I'll try to break down what I was thinking.

And another thing, I often use VT as a placeholder for town-aligned so *shrug*, my bad. And I'm plenty sure that we are pretty much still not out of RVS territory so can one shift of vote be read into that deeply?

When I read this the first time, I read "town-aligned" as just meaning townie. Like, "oh I just use VT as a slang for town without any concern for specific role." FWIW I'm personally pretty unfamiliar with PRs and they were not on my mind. I questioned this because it made sense to me in a way, but it also just sounded off, hence my asking more experienced players if they had heard of this. What I definitely was

not

anywhere close to thinking about was that by saying he is 'town-aligned' he might be implying he is town but not vanilla. I still don't know if this is how that should be taken I can read it both ways and don't have the experience to discern much.

Now that I'm back at E-1, I guess it's time to make a case for myself and reveal all my cards. I am working under the assumption that investigative roles are a part of the setup and that the one assigned this role is going to use it on a good target at night. So first off, meat-shielding early in a setup with possible investigative roles is part of the meta in the site I used to play on. (which was a chatroom btw). Hence, the VT claim. When I realized that it was backfiring as a wagon on me, I made an attempt to soft a PR by false-backpedalling about 'using VT as town-aligned'. I didn't realize this could backfire again and lead to the wagon strengthening. Lesson learnt: Metas differ from site to site and plays that work in one meta might backfire in another. Secondly, not really an argument but I've been told before that I act similarly both as town and scum. I guess if I had past game records on this site to go by, I would have been able to present those as evidence.

And to be explicit, are you claiming PR? The implication earlier with the town aligned shorthand comment went over my head, but now you say you *assume* this game has an investigative role, so your claim is VT?

Of course revealing a PR could be bad at this stage because mafia would likely NK if true. But if they didn’t that would look bad. But that means they could not and get us to lynch a PR. Gah ok now I understand WIFOM.

I remember reading somewhere on the wiki while waiting for the game to start that people are supposed to roleclaim at E-1 basically, so this is the expectation I had in mind. CCGeek starts the post above by saying he will "reveal all his cards." I assumed this meant he would say his role. But he never does. He never again plainly says he is VT, or a different role. Obviously nobody is going to say they are Mafia. So I pressed him directly to be more explicit. I'm confused and suspicious because in #120 quoted above he admits to trying to soft a PR but also doesn't definitively claim to be VT (which again had totally gone over my head). He seems now to be implying he is VT by saying he assumes there is an investigative role and he was setting himself up to look like a PR so he gets NKed instead of a PR. I just wanted him to state clearly that he is claiming VT, or if maybe he was claiming a PR still like he soft implied in #120. I think my understanding of the situation got clearer as I wrote that post since I started by saying are you claiming PR. It seems on this read that most likely he was claiming VT but again I just wanted it to be clear because a) he was not explicitly clear, b) I'm a noob and not 100% sure I'm following all this, and c) saying he would claim but not claiming seemed like it might be a scummy trait since nobody is going to say they are scum.

Hope all that makes sense..

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Wow, did a quick refresh before starting my re-read, and CCGeek is out here saying he should be eliminated despite the bw on him starting to fall apart. But while he stopped sort of self voting, he literally argued for his elimination, which I think it smells of desperation and maybe inexperience (yet I have no experience to speak of so wtf do I know), but I could also read it as trying to look town and/or deflect heat off somebody else (turtle I suppose since he mentions him so many times and there is some sus on him despite only one vote, like myself right now) by waving us back in his direction as we start to look away.
The only problem is if he is mafia and trying to take the heat off a scumbuddy and we did give him the axe and he flipped red, we would probably look at who we thought he was saving. Now granted a scum Geek could be trying to get us to kill a townie in D2, but that seems like overplaying when he's dropped down to E-2 and people are looking elsewhere. Either way, it appears to me to be part of a pattern of flailing since he got close, which isn't necessarily scummy, maybe especially not scummy when feeling close to being eliminated D1 if town, because that just sucks.

Experienced players have any thoughts on #203? Could this be a scum tactic?

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Unfortunately I'm falling asleep at the keyboard. I should be able to finish my analysis and post before work starts.

But before I go to bed, my gut is telling me to put my vote back to work on our friend Geek and see what happens.

VOTE: CCGeek

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My internet connectivity has been spotty today and my work meetings took half the day. Posting this from my phone but doing an analysis and long post on phone is not something I’m willing to do. Bear with me I will post an update today.

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Wow I legit thought I put CCGeek back at E-1 and thought he was hammered too. Now to go back and see where I got confused. Finally settled down to read from page 1.

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[Offtopic] @EE is your blackout because of Hurricane Ian? All my family is getting hammered with it right now..[/offtopic]

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[Offtopic] @EE is your blackout because of Hurricane Ian? All my family is getting hammered with it right now..[/offtopic]

Blah, I missed your first sentence somehow.

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With 9 alive, it's 5 to eliminate.

@catboi 9 Alive?

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Oh wow the site is back, but my email notifications for new posts did not return with it. I
Been wondering if the site was down for good. Guess I’ll try to catch up tomorrow.

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VOTE: SirRhett
This slot should do something.

Which slot are you saying should do something, yours or SirRhett's?

Are you voting for SirRhett out of any specific suspicion?

Trying to regain my energy for this game while also having a busy week. The server getting NKed really took my steam, to the point I resigned myself to just walking away from this game after refreshing several times a day for days.

I was half way done analyzing everything when the hammer dropped.. since I couldn't post I put off finishing it, but the gist of it was that CCGeek looked really guilty. So much for that analysis... but now I think my voting spreadsheet might even be more useful in light of the D1/N1 outcomes.

Until I look at the votes and conversation again in light of the new info, you all look about equally sus to me.

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Ok, so here's what we know, if I understand things correctly: (Please correct me if I'm wrong, this part is largely me clarifying things as a newbie)

1. HPE was a Town Mason, which by NewD3 setup means there was another Town Mason
2. HPE and the other Town Mason knew each other were Town Masons
3. Because of the two Town Masons, we (Town) have no investigative role or other PR with night powers in this game
4. Based on NewD3 grid the Mafia team may have a Roleblocker or two Goons. But the Roleblocker is irrelevant since we have no night powers

It seems extremely unlikely that HPE would have voted for the other Mason, since being Town-aligned there is no reason for subterfuge. Therefore, anyone HPE voted for was not the Mason, and therefore could be scum.

HPE voted for:
1. SirRhett
2.

CCGeek

3. Bellaphant

So the other Mason is one of:
1. Turtle
2. EE
3. Corwinoid
4. Spartan
5. Me

Unfortunately it is not me. I feel comfortable saying that because the scumteam already know that I'm Town, and a single Town Mason has no special ability and knows nothing the rest of us Town don't, other than that they are the other Mason.

Does it make sense for the other Mason to roleclaim in this scenario? Let me think through this...
- Seems pretty risky for scum to falseclaim. The only way that works out at all is if the scum claims first and the real TM doesn't counterclaim.
- If two claim to be the TM, we would totally elim one of them, and if they flipped green, the other would be dead next day.
- So the upside is, falseclaim seems unlikely due to risk and having a proven townie alive increases our odds of hitting scum.
- The downside is, scumfac will almost certainly NK the TM because doing so gives us no new info and takes away a verified townie... it's the most advantageous to the scum from a probability perspective
The only way it would make sense for the scum to NK somebody other than the known townie would be if they really feared someone I guess (or could hit a better PR, but that isn't relevant here if my understanding above is correct.)

So I guess at this point the real Town Mason should

not

stand up, unless a strong bw forms against you. Drat, for a second there I thought it would make sense for them to identify. Anyone see a flaw in my thought processes here? It is late after all...

Reviewing my notes and slot analyses in a separate post... which unfortunately is probably going to be after some shut eye since it's nearly 2am. I'll try to do this first thing.

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I would just like to point out that while I enjoy the effort, I feel as if narrowing down the other Mason only helps scum.

That is the conclusion I came to, I just included how I got there.

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Well, actually I don't entirely agree. It only helps scum in after this day ends, but it would help us in the immediate because we would not vote to off a known townie, so if we knew it would reduce the ratio of town to scum, making hitting scum more likely. But like I said putting that info out there would get that person killed if scum plays smart, so the advantage ends. So I think it behooves town for that person to claim only if they are in danger of getting hammered.

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VOTE: Spartan

I literally gave away nothing except deductive reasoning everyone is capable and asked you guys (especially SEs like yourself) to make sure i'm thinking about this game correctly. And you call that anti town. I didn't help the scum (unless they are very bad at reasoning). This might have a hint of OMGUS but jumping on me feels scummy.

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If nobody has claimed to be the mason the scum don't have anything to go on. And as soon as someone does claim then they are the target.. what am I missing?

Oh.. i guess you're saying if i'm excluding from scum's NK consideration because I claimed VT the odds go up that they randomly hit the mason, which is true but I didn't think of that. Sounds like you're saying if that person makes it to a later day before claiming it does become beneficial. I can see that, but still doesn't feel like a major thing for me to have claimed VT. That is the assumption unless someone says otherwise.

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In the last part Bella is saying she finds the concept of masons as PRs strange, she is unsure if they shouldnt claim or not but believes that if the mason remaining claims it gives the scum team an easy night kill target they would just auto select, as there are no protective town roles like doctor or jailkeeper that could protect them. She says another reason she thinks its not good to claims is to see who starts pushing the remaining mason slot and after the slot claims you can see how the reads on that slot differ as to if they just insta claimed now, nobody is gonna push their slot or sus them as they will be conf town.

ok i'm going to bed for real. I'm not caught up on these last pages because i'm apparently having the same conversation out loud with myself as has already been going on... and now I feel dumb.

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CC?

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Could we have reads lists from everyone? We'd was helpful. Nek has one less post than me and I couldn't tell you who they scum read.

I plan to provide this in a couple hours when I get home. Checking in on my phone.

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UNVOTE: Spartan117. Don't have a strong opinion on anyone since I feel behind and need to finish reviewing D1.

Catching up and reviewing now...

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Vote Count 2.03

Corwinoid (1):

Corwinoid

<snip>

Not Voting (2):

evileeyore, SirRhett

With 7 alive, it's 4 to eliminate.

The evileeyore/corwinoid mixup persists to another vote count! XD

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Alrighty, several interruptions later... I've finally finished the analysis I started just before EE hammered Geek, only I restarted it from the beginning now that we have Geek's flip and the NK. At least, I've finished it through D1, but I'm going to post just off of that for right now because these keep taking me way longer than I expect and it's nearly 2am and I am struggling to stay awake. I will try to post something based on pages 11+ before bed but it might have to wait until tomorrow. As we've seen, since the server coming back online I've really just been skimming and have missed a lot in D2 so far..

Here are my reads after reviewing just D1:

Likely Town:
- SirRhett
- Bella (mostly)

Middle or unknown read:
- MrTurtle (but seeing mostly circumstantial scenarios where he is scum)
- Evileeyore (maybe middle leaning town)

Scum reads:
- Spartan
- Corwinoid

I'm reading pretty strong scum on both corwin and spartan, and wondering if they aren't a scumpair. I made scum notes on everyone, as well on several possible pairs, and my notes were by far the longest on each of them and on their pairing. (Many of the other pairs include Turtle.)

The scum case for Spartan117

- Seems to lurk then spam post. (Could just be related to personal life schedule)
- Third vote on the Geek bw.. enough time for it to be extant but not established, great place for scum to jump in. Also never wavers and drives the wagon hard, like an experienced scum who saw an opportunity and has picked the D1 target.
- In #79, he soft accuses Geek, claiming his comment in #71 about Bella possibly being overeager townie could be "distancing form a wagon they know is town and sees a lot of pressure on." (Note that Bella had 3 votes at this point, and one was my RVS, and pressure was fairly light.)
Very wishy washy in this post. "I feel this is scummy... but maybe they are just town defending town... but let me walk that back again and say i think it is a scumtell disguised as a pro-town action"
- In #86 starts the narrative that ultimately gets VT Geek eliminated (In #95 EE points out that this feels like mafia making a hard run on town, and at this point I agree)
- First to make the case for Geek, from the aforementioned setup in #79, to a stronger accusation in #86 followed up a few minutes later where a he slams Geek pretty hard, votes for him, and lays out the first clear case to elim Geek.
- He takes the lead on this narrative and really runs with it and gets us behind it. HPE wisely sees this in #101 (reason for NK?)
- As EE starts with his game stats, Spartan gets really defensive. See #113 and #119, the latter being after EE explicitly says this is all RVS banter (#115)
- Fake second vote to "hammer" Geek in #114 is weird. Was it an actual mistake with intent to end the day and get their kill? Honestly, probably not but worth mentioning. I think it was more likely a joke since the hammering vote theoretically draws scrutiny, and spartan was already driving the wagon. But is possible he forgot he actually voted already.
- #123 more evidence of Spartan just driving the bandwagon and pushing back on Geek whenever he tries to defend (or Corwinoid does that as we will see next)
- This is D2 which I am not caught up on yet, but I do remember last night where he pushed on me hard for claiming VT like Geek did. One could make the case that when he used that to success in #86 to drive a bandwagon against Geek all the way through, he tested the same tactic out on me, but when the comments from the others weren't so universally on board, he gave up on the tactic, as evidenced by his vote for someone else instead (SirRhett in #366).

The scum case for Corwinoid

- First person to take a wagon to 3 votes (against SirRhett, with no reasoning in #35)
- #73 casts the first vote against Geek in a naked vote
- "Naked voting is usually scummy, so that's definitely

NOT

why I did it" WIFOMy and scummy reading in hindsight.
- Jumps off the wagon when it is E-1, not wanting to be associated with a wagon on an innocent townie perhaps?
- #213 takes his vote off of Geek and moves to evil, but in #233 and #243 thinks Bella’s vote for Geek was the hammer when

the only reason it wasn’t was because HE changed his vote in #213

. Did he jump off to distance himself but was still eager to see it go through??
- Outside of RVS and strangely changing vote at E-1, Corwin only votes where someone else has, being the 3rd on Rhett wagon (#35) and second on the Geek wagon.
- Also ignores Geek's allegation against him.

The case for Spartan and Corwin being a scumteam

- Corwin’s intro comment is RVS vote for Spartan Idea could be to distance straightaway.
- Corwinoid sets up the drive on Geek for Spartan by being the first to vote for Geek in #73 with no reason given at all, but then distances himself from the wagon as it picks up steam, jumping randomly to EE in #213 again with no real justification. In fact he says the wagon needs to happen, then jumps to someone with not a single vote against them.
- #76 Spartan shares same sentiment as Corwin
- #78 Spartan pushes back on EE's idea of SEs being scum. Note that he and Corwin are both SEs.
- Backs up scum!spartan in #88, 89, and 90.

I see a real possibility played out where Spartan and Corwinoid collude to wagon Geek, with Spartan being the driving force in the wagon and Corwin jumping off to look less sus.

Because at this point, the case against Corwin is strongest if one assumes Spartan is scum and Spartan's stands more on its own, I'm going to VOTE: Spartan.

I can post the things I've read as scummy with D1 hindsight for the rest of you if you would like, but these two are by far the longest lists/strongest cases.

I'm so damn slow that it was 2am when I started this and now its nearly 3. Will get to the activities of the last 5 pages as soon as I can...

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Well...

I don't think both scum were on wagon. It wouldn't surprise me if it was an entirely town wagon, but I doubt it.

What if you know that both scum were not on the wagon, because you got off while your scumpal stayed on?

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corwin and Nek go off and back on the wagon .mr turtle gets off early and stays off and doesn't really get back on a wagon. Apart from an early wagon' on me, the only other viable wagon was Spartan.

I'm not massively bothered by corwins on and off, mid bothered by Nek and most bothered by Mr turtle, which is becoming a theme.

Re-check that vote count. Corwin was does not go off and back on, he goes on and then off, similar to Turtle but IMO with scummier timing. Turtle is #3 on my scumlist though.

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Well I got to page 13 in D2 last night before I crashed. Not really caught up on things between that and my last posts, but read the responses this morning.

I am a bit worried that the 'se scum pair' vibe is so prevalent. It would be very easy for new scum to lean into that.

To be clear, I'm not pushing this idea that scum are selected because they are SEs. I just think (currently at least) that the scumpair happens to be a pair of SEs, and have viewed the strong resistance to the idea of SE scumpairs by Spartan in particular as evidence of his scumminess, because if 2/3 SEs are scum and the rest of us just hard targeted SEs, we'd knock out the scumfac pretty darn quick, and assuming my case is correct, that would be scary. (Note it could also be just because in isolation attacking SEs is a terrible strategy, but a- in my reading he was excessively worried about this scenario, and b- that's hardly the lynchpin of my case, just further circumstantial evidence)

Hmm, actually @nek, why not vote corwin? A wagon would be useful, rather than one vote on Spartan? Didn't you just unvote him?

Didn't vote corwin for the reasons I stated: basically a lot of my scumread on him is based on the presumption that Spartan is scum. Reading corwin's actions after seeing Spartan as scummy make him look the scummiest to me. He does have a few things that make me suspect him without Spartan, but I would prefer to elim Spartan, and if he flips red go after corwin, but if he flips green reassess. But I am open to going the other way.

I did just unvote him, because that was before I did my post-N1 re-read of all of D1. I had voted for him on a sort of gut feeling in the middle of the night and it was definitely tinged with frustration and OMGUS. I saw my unvote as a way of saying "OK I'm starting a deep dive on D1 with a clean slate toward everyone" and when I did that, he happened to be the one that came up scummiest in my view.

That's definitely an argument. I'm feeling like it has potential and legs, but, explain your On, Off, On again with CCG. That's what partially fueled my pushback on Corwin and the second half of my scumread on you.

Basically, on because he seemed like the only choice that had any supporting evidence. Off, because in his flailing I just got a town vibe and wanted to reconsider. Back on, because his self defense after my unvote gave me scum vibes again. The "just kill me" thing I think was what most didn't sit right with me at the time, perhaps largely because I read on the wiki that voting for yourself is almost exclusively anti-town. (remember I don't have a background of mafia strategy on other sites so I spent some time reading about strategy and tells on the MS wiki to try to learn something).

The corwin/turtle thing is just strange, the defence is just really unwarranted. I don't think this is t/t.

Totally agree on the defense there. As I've stated, Turtle is next highest on my scumlist, but he's given us a lot less to work with (possible scumtell itself), but in what he has given us there are a couple really odd things like that, and I see how he could be part of a scumpair with a few different people (including both Corwin and Spartan)

Admittedly, a weakness in my case

may

be that I started to see something and then looked for supporting evidence, which I would say I did a little. But I also objectively made bullet points on each of you then looked at it all, and while in that initial process, my feeling became spartan/corwin, the things I took note of were strongest and most numerous against those two. I guess it's the pairing of them that might be the most "interpreting the data to support your hypothesis, rather than objectively" but I think it tracks at the moment.

Excited to catch up on D2 sometime today and see if my reads change at all. Hopefully you guys don't post 27 text walls and add 6 pages before I get to that...

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Not caught up, but responding to the latest posts:

I hard-claim Mason.

I agree with EE and Corwin's math about claiming. I think it'd be hard getting people to side with me if I am counter-claimed tomorrow, considering my current thread position.

One of the things I wrote in my notes last night is that you were the most likely other mason, based on who HPE voted for or suspected and the activity of you and others.

I think this reaffirms my view of Spartan and what I remember of the attack on me regarding the logic of determining the mason etc (where it turned out I was unaware of the preceding conversation on the topic... which I can explain if anyone has questions there.

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However, the one thing that gave me pause on you being the Mason last night is #244 where HPE does not seem to know your alignment with certainty.

Mr. Turtle is... so-so. Can definitely understand his hesitation to hammer, even if this one disagrees with it. Worth watching in the coming days. Neutral read at the moment, still wary of CCGeek trying to muddy the waters, as you noted with his 'townreading' of SirRhett in particular.

What say you about this Mr.Turtle?

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I'll address the "active lurking"/"posting for the sake of it" head on since as I'm slowly getting caught up on D2 right now, it has come up multiple times.

1. I understand the claim and how it could be sus. Been a concern/frustration of mine because i've been

trying

to post a substantial analysis since before the hammer, but I'm apparently slow, I'm definitely busy, and I start drifting off at night.
2. There have definitely been, especially recently as I was struggling to get my re-read done, basically "bump" posts. This is because I already have two prods and one more kicks me out of the game, and I'd like to see this through.
3. The prods at the beginning of the game were due to being busy over the weekend (we had recently moved into a new house a bit before the game started and there was stuff to take care of... still is, but less urgently). The second prod was partly that but also a misunderstanding/misremembering of the activity timer.. I actually got kinda pissed when I saw the prod and thought catboi made a mistake until I re-read that I had 36 hours, not 48.
4. The doctor's office post (brought up previously) was simply a combination of venting and stressing that I had a lot of work to do still that day, so explaining that my activity the rest of that IRL day was likely going to change dramatically as I'd go from waiting room captive to busy worker (although I think I ended up checking in and posting a bit anyway because I was getting addicted as activity was picking up finally).

The "I'm going to post here soon..." posts were legit, and I was getting very frustrated. I tried doing a re-read and taking paper notes during my work day one day last week, but kept getting interrupted and forgetting what my reads were. I had gotten to like page 5, forgot how many we were on then. I switched to a google doc and google spreadsheet and started again I think that evening but couldn't stay awake. I was in the middle of doing a re-read the night EE dropped the hammer. I wanted to go look hard because like I mentioned recently, I did get town vibes in some of his pleading/flailing, so I wanted to look for some other hints of who else could be scum or what. I was a little more than half way through in one tab (and unfortunately reading scum into everything CCGeek did, partly because he perhaps played poorly, but perhaps also because Spartan had planted this idea in our heads) and refreshing the current page periodically in the other, when I realized the hammer dropped and then the thread was locked, and Geek was innocent, so I said no point in finishing this now, let's revisit with the new info from Geek's flip and N1 outcome.

I refreshed constantly hoping N1 would end before the timer (which it didn't). That's why I was there right away to catch catboi's typo. But it was after midnight and I wasn't in any shape to start revisitng my re-read, so I went to bed.. never saw posts 263-267 because by the time i woke up the next morning those had been posted but then the server was down for almost 3 days. I was kind of hoping it wouldn't because I kept not finding the time to do what I needed to do, hence bump posts until last night when I dug thru D1 and am now trying to catch up on D2. I think when the server came back I skimmed back to catboi's post #268, failing to realize there had been posts while I slept (pretty sure some of you guys are in the UK based on spelling and posting times, I had kind of assumed everyone was in north america).

The post two nights ago where I try to work out some game theory and then get attacked by spartan before going to bed was me starting the re-read, but being a methodical sort (unlike EE I

am

an engineer lol), I started by laying out what I perceived to be the facts, with the intent to then go into my analysis later in the post, but the analysis was taking too long and I was getting sleepy so I decided to break it into two posts with the latter probably not happening that night, and I also got into the game theory of claiming / sussing out the other Mason, my initial thought being oh let's figure out who that is so we don't kill them because if we can figure it out to a high degree of certainty we increase our chances of hitting scum, but then running through the various possible scenarios and their outcomes, realizing that the same is true for the scum and it would probably be the smartest play on their part to hit the one person we theoretically confirmed as living town. Spartan's attack on me kind of pissed me off (stressed, tired, frustrated already in how hard it was proving to be for me to do my re-read, also remembering my question early D1 about if we should say a lot and show our hands or not where Turtle said we should provide as much info as possible). I think what irritated me the most about it was that I came to the same conclusion but was getting attacked for deducing it "out loud" as it were, which kinda feels scummy especially given my current working theory now that I have re-read D1. Granted I did make a claim about myself, which I had truly thought through before doing, but I was short sighted and didn't think about the potential value of a mason claiming later in the game when population is smaller.. was focused on how they would get NKed but that they are basically powerless so it doesn't matter.

So yeah I think that is pretty much everything regarding my active lurking.

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Meh just to clarify one thing.. i was totes unaware of the discussion on the strategy of the other mason role being claimed etc that had been ongoing before my post, because i had popped in with a "i'm still here" post to avoid a prod without getting caught up, and from then on out only paying attention to the posts after that as I would get email notices. (Which is how i've continued to operate, hence my getting caught up on D2 now.. got hung up on EE's post top of 13, moving forward now lol)

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Interesting bit of evidence for my case against Spartan on p13...

In #315 he quotes Rhett's post 288 (which I seem to have basically missed) where he assumes at least one scum latched onto Geek's very strange display. This is exactly what I have accused Spartan of doing when I re-read, and here in 315 we have Spartan casting sus on Rhett for pointing that out. Feels like attacking someone getting close, or at least a subconscious OMGUS type thing.

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I actually hate 318 a lot less than I thought I would... except for the last paragraph. I'm the one who pushed that wagon the hardest, and the looking for an easy elim--exactly where your vote is--based on pushing a mislim is pretty self-evident.

Here's the thing, if I'm town and the rest of town let me lead town D1 without getting more information (I even suggested people start a viable counterwagon, and gave potential targets), that's not on me. Pressure is a net positive. If I'm scum and the rest of town let me lead town day 1 that's on town and all of the 'heat' that's on me for driving doesn't help town solve the rest of the game. Also, if I'm scum I don't come off that wagon when I do, or I hammer. Neither one is consistent with me pushing and naturally backing off to look at other slots when I have an available elim that scum!me pushed that hard for.

Interesting taking credit for driving a wagon against a townie, especially when I think it is clear Spartan did this, with you assisting.

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The players driving this game are

probably

not scum. It's possible, but it's not likely.

Of course you would say that since you and your scumbuddy drove the D1 elimination...

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Ok, finally caught up. I sense some distancing/bussing between Spartan and Corwin in D2. That's the primary read I got in reviewing D2. I got nothing else until more reactions and posts come in.

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I literally asked Spartan if he wanted to build a town bloc with me. In what world is that distancing?

#348 you defend me to Spartan
#354, #356-#360 publicly disagreeing on the thing Spartan attacked me over, if you guys are a scumpair this is distancing, trying to show you are not a team... a lot of the interaction between you two on p15 can be read that way. See also #371-372

Far from conclusive, only makes sense as circumstantial evidence if the theory I presented holds up. But definitely easy for me to see that as a result of a PT discussion like "Let's disagree politely on some stuff, it will distance us in the minds of townfolk."

Not sure what this town bloc thing you mention is. Don't recall seeing that post, quite possibly because I don't know what 'build[ing] a town bloc' means.

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However, the one thing that gave me pause on you being the Mason last night is #244 where HPE does not seem to know your alignment with certainty.

Mr. Turtle is... so-so. Can definitely understand his hesitation to hammer, even if this one disagrees with it. Worth watching in the coming days. Neutral read at the moment, still wary of CCGeek trying to muddy the waters, as you noted with his 'townreading' of SirRhett in particular.

What say you about this Mr.Turtle?

Well, me and HPE distanced from each other by not really talking much about each other. HPE acting as if they knew my alignment would clearly pair us and paint targets on both of our backs.

I'm willing to accept this. It is basically the reason I came up with. Although saying townread instead of neutral read probably wouldn't have been read suspiciously. Maybe in hindsight if she was eliminated (as happened.) Either way, seems pretty fair because of the potential targetting.

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Interesting to me that people are getting such scumreads from Bella. I haven’t been seeing it since some early initial reads that pale in comparison to those I’ve gotten from others. Perhaps I’ve viewed things too myopically in light of spartan/corwin theory (or maybe I’m wrong about spartan and EE is his scum buddy?)

SirRhett I get primarily for his lurking.

@those who thinks Bella is scumfac: convince me, I’m open to finding the scum even if my assessment is wrong.

@bella how do you current read the room?

Personally I still think looking at how the killing of Geek went down makes the most sense right now, which means corwin or spartan, with a FoS at EE.

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Right, EE, being willing to look at things critically is scummy? You’re creeping up my scum ladder, but I still don’t think so. I’ve been very clear who I think is scum right now, but also recognize that once you’re on a theory you’re going to be biased to it and unconsciously ignore evidence that doesn’t fit into it. I think I’m right at the moment, but you and another are clearly seeing things differently and I want to know why that is. Could change my view in more ways than one.

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@EE Rereading your post, I’ll have to go back to look at the spartan wagon from D1. I honestly don’t recall the details of it. My very soft sis toward you which you quoted was under the theory that corwin is scum and you both reading Bella scum, which I don’t see. Also think my spartan corwin theory is strong and kinda obvious (it jumped out at me pretty hard) so your last read list doesn’t compute from my perspective. Also why I woke up this morning and asked everyone to clarify..

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Can’t wait to catch up on spartan and EE’s long comments but just fyi it’ll be late tomorrow before I can.

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Day went sideways yesterday IRL with my wife. Just bumping for now but might not be able to stick it out we will see.

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Just realizing deadline is in 15 hours. I’ll try hard to respond to things/catch up today. On phone at work atm. I do recall seeing someone ask me why Rhett was on my town list, and the answer is because on my D1 reread notes he had few scum notes. Could be because he just wasn’t participating. Not really caught up on the new guy’s posts but I think he voted for me, so that’s obviously scummy lol.

I skimmed several of the new posts over the weekend while working outside. Someone (spartan?) questioned me about turtle I think. My notes had him as most likely mason (based primarily on HPE’s votes and susses and process of elimination from there) but also the third most scummy based on what looked like possible collusion with others (forgot who can’t pull up notes atm).

If I have time I’ll reread quickly with the idea of Rhett being scum but iirc most of the claims against him have been based on lack of evidence ie not doing anything. Remind me if I’m wrong about that. My position has been to flip spartan or corwin and see what that gives because it could totally change my working theory or prove it.

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I haven't caught up, but time is running out so I am willing to change my vote to my other suspect since at least someone else has voted for him.

VOTE: Corwinoid

The wagon on Rhett/MC is just the two I've been calling scum, so that concerns me. Corwinoid pushing for this is possibly concerning. I have to give a think on if a miselim is in fact better than no elim today. It may be but I need to consider that for a bit.

Going to reread as much as I can and see if I think a Rhett/MC elim makes sense or not. If so, will change my vote. Until then, switching to corwin in case EE, Bella, or Turtle want to get onboard.

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@EE funny, initially you said my theory "had legs." No idea why you keep putting me more scum, or why my case is reading scummy, I'm very town and seem to be the only one who has made an actual case, one you seemed to appreciate when I made it. If you guys want to elim me, knock yourself out but I will flip green and then perhaps you guys should listen to what I've said, or look at EE. Or maybe we are all 4 of us town eating each other. This game is hard.

How about instead of joining the "wagon" (single vote) against me by the person you are saying is scum, you get on the Corwin wagon? Re-reading my notes, this one stands out to me again in particular:
* #213 takes his vote off of Geek and moves to evil, but in #233 and #243 thinks Bella’s vote for Geek was the hammer when the only reason it wasn’t was because HE changed his vote.

Feels like scum who moved his vote to distance himself when the victim flips green but in his anxiousness to get us to elim a townie forgot he did so.

Frankly, I think there has not been enough wagon analysis from D1.

What is the case for MC/Rhett? Somebody just lay it out for me or if I missed it give me a post number.

Re-reading D2, #382, @EE your case for a Bella/Rhett pair does track a little bit for me. A Freudian slip to her scumpartner and a panicked correction? Maybe. Voting/Wagon analysis gives it some strength... Rhett never votes Geek, ends with a vote on me, and Bella put to E-1, albeit in a post that I get no alignment read on either way. This is a tough one. @EE if you're willing to hammer, I'm coming around to being your E-1...

Thinking through this no elim vs miselim stuff:
Right now we have 2 scum 5 town.
If we noelim, we get 2 scum 4 town (6 total).
If we miselim, we get 2 scum 3 town (5 total).
If we bag a scum, we get 1 scum 4 town (5 total)

Seems to me that the difference between a noelim and a miselim are negligible... other than the fact that not voting will definitely NOT hit a scum, whereas any other vote has a probabilistic chance of hitting scum. So that's a fair argument.
But what we really need is to get it right...

A nolim lets the scum team pick both of the next deaths instead of giving town the chance to sort.

I don't see how that is accurate. Scum Team gets the NK but with 4 town left, town has the opportunity to completely pick the second death. Which seems to me to be the case for nolim..

So "have a chance to hit scum but if wrong lose two townies" vs "leave enough townies to more easily vote off scum (more than one townie probably has to be swayed vs just one)
I guess which is better depends on the certainty of our belief in who the scum is, and perhaps luck if we vote for someone.

@catboi can we get clarity on votes to elim if 6 alive??

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Well this will be interesting! I guess since I'm still reading/on the fence I'll leave it for EE. Which will probably be interpreted as scummy but whatever.

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Fuck it, I have stuff to do before I go to bed and I think it is either Bella/MC or Spartan/Corwin so what the heck. Plus re-reading, Spartan's logic in 462 rings for me, Bella looks more sus now that I've paid closer attention to D2, and EE is running out of time to drop the hammer. VOTE: Major Cannon

You all will probably say this is scummy but you say that about all my posts now so *shrug*

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Of course they NKed Turtle. We knew he was town. If they killed anybody else our odds of hitting scum would have improved.

EE and Bella, are you finally ready to listen and get Corwin and Spartan and win? My read on Rhett turned out to be on the money so I'm trusting my reads.

But we have to get this one right or we're done, so take your time.

Going to re-read D2 to see how the Rhett train formed and see how that jives with the D1 final wagon. I think I have a post or two from Spartan that needs a reply too.

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Then why not go through mine or Corwins posts and breakdown what you feel from what we have said is actually scummy and try and get other players on your side if you was/are trying to flip myself or corwin.

That's the plan, hopefully I have time tonight or tomorrow. As well as looking at everyone else, in case I missed something. I think the most concrete thing we have to analyze is how the elimination bandwagons went.

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I’m not nor have ever been a “she” lol.

Fine to hammer because miselim was better than noelim and I didn’t know if EE was going to show up in the last 15.

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The cat??

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Only have time at the moment to respond to a few quick things...

Sorry, the cat gives me she!

Fuck me, it's a duck.

To be fair, it *is* a female duck..

@nek, can you answer why air rhett was so high?

I have explained this before but I will try to do so more clearly. I made a list of possible scumtells from everyone D1. Rhett had like the fewest as well as no signs of collusion with anybody else. I had no positive town reads, but I haven't figured out what a positively pro-town comment would look like. I've just been hunting what looks scummy or as collusion in hindsight once we have real facts, and see town by process of elimination.

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Will try to post more tonight but tomorrow afternoon is when I will most likely have time to actually read the longer posts of the last few days and do the things I've talked about since D3 started...

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That makes no sense. And you’re just proving my point that you and spartan are scum.

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Unfortunately plans changed yesterday and I didn’t have the couple hours of free time I anticipated having for this game. At work and have a pretty busy day here so idk when I’ll have a substantial post but hopefully this evening unless I get my work done quickly or something.

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... I didn’t know if EE was going to show up in the

last 15

.

Ahem:

Deadline for Day 2 is October 11 at

1:30 AM EDT

.

"last 15"? Hyperbole or an attempt to reframe to fit a narrative?

I was under the impression it ended at 1:00 not 1:30. I was tired and wanted to go to bed.


I'm reading EE as the most town.

It's either Bella/Corwin or Spartan/Corwin as I've been saying. I still lean the latter and would probably bet the game on it, but Bella's giving me more scum read than she used to, and Spartan has slid a bit more town than I was reading him before.

@EE what do you think of Bella's game, especially D3, in light of all the other games you've read?

He's literally admitting a disassociate from town solving and the ONLY motivation for that is being informed.

This is a stupid comment from you. I solve town primarily by finding scum, which I do primarily by looking at the votes and their results (aka facts), and then studying their comments in light of this. There is no "disassociate from town solving".

Not 100% sure I'd have been on it though at the end. I kept staring at the two names on the wagon, and how those two names had also lead the run on CCGeek the day before.

How many townies are we going to let them run successful wagons on before we wake up?

Let's look at D2. I don't have time to go in depth because is 4:30am and I haven't slept yet. Go look at these post numbers and read them in light of the facts.

Corwinoid

#263 Weird (deflection? honesty?) about not thinking both scum on wagon
Asks Spartan (scum buddy)
If true,

he

is only person of unknown alignment not on D1 bandwagon left alive today.
#319 starts promoting Rhett narrative Spartan started
#327 again pushing Rhett “we may need to just sort him”
#348 says agrees with me, (even though he's not saying what I said), pushes mason to claim, perhaps so he and scumbuddy can kill them since its the lowest info NK?
Bussed in #357?
#437 says he thought everyone but Turtle was mason (I think #346 is him figuring out turtle was the mason and this is a distraction to look ignorant)
#464 agrees with Spartan’s #462
#476 pushes for miselim
#528 calls out to Spartan

Spartan

#305 more concerns about SE targeting (because it increases his odds of getting elimed if we target SEs)
#315 starts SirRhett narrative
#317 again
#334 and 335 attacks me for harmless post
#462 pushes for MC/Rhett again

There is a pretty clear team between Corwin and Spartan. They even call out to each other by name regularly. Most importantly they have driven our two miseliminations.

See my post #384 for a recap of D1.

Corwin is coming off very mafia D3 especially.

VOTE: Corwin

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Dang was it Bella and spartan?

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Ugh just woke up. Didn’t see page 24 lol

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Just glad it’s over. This game takes way too much time.