Newbie 2102 | OPs from 2002 | Postgame

For Newbie Games, which have a set format and experienced moderators. Archived during the 2023 queue overhaul.
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Post Post #15 (isolation #0) » Wed Sep 21, 2022 4:29 pm

Post by evileeyore »

In post 6, Bellaphant wrote:VOTE: evil eye

Was way too eager to get started, must be scum :)
VOTE: Bellaphant
Can't spell names properly, clearly scum.
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Post Post #38 (isolation #1) » Thu Sep 22, 2022 9:45 am

Post by evileeyore »

In post 7, HighPrincessErinys wrote:"can't wait to start killing!" -evileeyore, probably
Town has the most solemn of duties: Vote out every Mafia. So I live by that old adage, ABC "Always Be Closing" on them scum. Let's get that wagon on the SE scum rolling...
In post 20, HighPrincessErinys wrote:
In post 19, SirRhett wrote:Your scum has arrrrrivvvvvvved!
VOTE: SirRhett

A truly blatant confession indeed :wink:
Normally I'd be all in on a self-started bandwagoning, buuuuuut, fellow newb comraderie and all, and besides, pretty sure if we vote out the Semi-Experienced we'll get at least one scum. Like 90% sure. Okay, 80%.

In post 37, SirRhett wrote:I’m fine with the pressure. There’s not much information to go around as is. So how does this work? Am I pushed to the edge and given my last will and testament?
Not sure on the "last will" or "last meals", but at 3 out of 5 you're mos def in hammer territory.

Lucky for you I have diamond hands on Bella.
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Post Post #41 (isolation #2) » Thu Sep 22, 2022 3:28 pm

Post by evileeyore »

In post 40, Corwinoid wrote:Roles are completely random, including for SEs.
I know, but 3/8 is better odds than 1/8... ;)
Assuming from a town perspective that means at this stage there's about a 3 in 8 chance of hitting one scum that way...
Exactly! So you agree it's completely town to eliminate the SEs as fast as possible! Glad to see you're on our side, now just join the Bellatrain and we can fit you for the elimination tomorrow (if the scum don't eliminate you overnight).
It's an open setup...
Technically (which is the best type of correct) it's "semi-open"... and I argue that at this point it's 'semi-closed', so many possibilities that only 5 people are informed of (and 2 of them slightly more informed on). After we get at least one Role flip I'll accept it's semi-open as at that point we're all (sort of) equally informed.
... use any information you might have about your role and the setup to try and understand how other people are acting.
Yes, well, us Vanilla Townies are Sergeant Schultz at this point...
I know nothing!
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Post Post #63 (isolation #3) » Sat Sep 24, 2022 6:28 am

Post by evileeyore »

In post 49, Bellaphant wrote:... do people have much experience with mafia or other similar games? What got you into it?
"Much"? Mmmm, some people here wouldn't; say so. I've played about ten games of Message Board
Mafia
Werewolf on another site over a decade ago, never knew there were whole ass forums dedicated to it. Got into it because one of the peeps in that forum played a congame of Werewolf and thought it would port quite well over to the message board format, and as it was a gaming forum, figured there'd be an audience. There was, we had about 15 people who passed around the
moderator
game-runner hat (no actual mod powers) and ran games for a few years (always one game at a time as we had a limited playerbase) and usually a month or two between games. Those would be described as "Geriatric Blitz Open"† games by this place's definitions. They were
very
town leaning games - I think every single one had Cop+Doctor duo plus a few other roles (theme dependent) and almost never had scum roles at all. We had only two scum wins, and I was the mastermind of one of them... which I probably shouldn't admit but well, there it is.

Got back into it when I realized I hadn't played in a long time and the play-by-post site I'm on has never had a game spring up, so I asked about it there, and then when someone needed a good definition of "what is a 'Mafia' game" went looking for examples and found this site's wiki as google's number 3 pick. Any place with a decent wiki always get's my vote-traffic... soooo, now I'm here, and y'all get to suffer me.


As for the "Unvotes'... what?
ABC
!
A
lways
B
e
C
ulling! It's our duty, nay even our
sacred and solemn
duty to eliminate scum! We can't do that if no one is getting voted off!


† So I have a general preference for fast games with lowered post counts... and didn't realize I skipped posting yesterday. I'll have to stay on top of it and post even if I don't have anything of value to say.

Expect a more in depth look into our SE's‡ game habits later today or tomorrow morning to help GET OUT THE VOTE!

‡ And if we have enough habits of us newbs to be of any value (unlikely with 4 or less Newbie games under their belts, but I'll look anyway).
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Post Post #69 (isolation #4) » Sat Sep 24, 2022 5:31 pm

Post by evileeyore »

In post 68, SirRhett wrote:Is it too early to give reads on everyone?
Everyone? Yes. All the newbs, certainly have far too little history to get solid feels on, however the three SE have lots of prior game history, so you can go read those games (ahahahahahaha, aha, owwww that reading hurts) and then try to apply their play there to their opening play here.
We’re two votes away from voting off Bellaphant? Is that what e-2 means?
Yes, exactly. You can be sure that her scum partner is one of those not voting (unless we do eliminate her and she flips town, then everyone voting Bella looks super sus).
If Bella and Corwin can vouch for each other as far as reads go, I’d be a little hesitant to vote for either of them.
Because of course scum never vouch for one another... granted, distancing seems to be the "meta" in these parts, but that doesn't mean anything. Good scum try new tactics all the time.


Still working on that deep dive of the SE's past games, but that's gonna have to be completed tomorrow.
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Post Post #95 (isolation #5) » Sun Sep 25, 2022 7:28 am

Post by evileeyore »

In post 64, HighPrincessErinys wrote:Now don't get your feathers all ruffled.
I missed this earlier, returning to it now to inject fake melodrama...
[MELODRAMA=FAKE]
FEATHERS! Feathers! Wow, what a way to pet the cat wrong. Newbie Camaraderie is all that's saving you from this cat's wroth. But i'll be watching HighPrincess, oh yes... eyes=you!
[/MELODRAMA]


In post 77, Spartan117 wrote:
In post 69, evileeyore wrote:Good scum try new tactics all the time.
What like trying to bus their scum partner early day 1 :wink:
Exactly! Oh, wait... no... ;)
In post 78, Spartan117 wrote:I dont like this rhetoric of newbies being town and SE being scum simply because they have played before...
Oh, well good news, that's not what the rhetoric was at all. It's a sloppy math claim of "here is an easily identifiable group" from which we can be "more reasonably sure" at least one is Mafia aligned. It's a better average than any other random triplet grouping (math=sloppy)

And it's had the desired effect of getting people talking and voting, and not just "uwu" level banter. Like you certainly woke up fierce this morning.
Typically a more experienced players scum game should look like their town game, and the way to get info on their slot is more based on flips and who they are scum reading and who they are town reading.
For which we need some eliminations... for which we need to get the vote out, for which we need some pressure applied, for which... it's a long list of "reasons", not all of them are perfect.
There is more change of some sort of scum slip from a new one player on average.
Sure, sure... but that leads to "worse" games for the Newb who get's hard-wagoned Day 1 just because "tehy Я newb" and maybe don't know how to argue against a wagoning. I'd rather drive the wagon on an experienced Player and be wrong than on a Newb and be wrong.

But that said, my
deep
shallow dive on Corwin and Bella is almost done and my feelings are "both should be left alone Day 1" (for different reasons so far). So it's time to break my diamond grip and revote...

VOTE: Spartan117

(which is subject to revision once my shallow dive on Spartan is doen - and by ZOD we don;t you Se's have your wiki pages in order? What is wrong with you!?!?!)
From the setup of the game with PRs are you aware that with there being 2 scum and 7 Town, there are either 1 or 2 Town PRs which the scum will ideally hunt for with their night kill. So to claim you are VT (and with it not being that you are at E-1 with someone claiming intent to hammer) you are reducing the chance of scum hitting a PR from 2/7 to 2/6, which is 1/3 if you are town.

Otherwise I am wondering if you are scum claiming VT to look for an angry Town PR to confront you as saying so as Town would have increased the chances of them being NKed? In essence being a way you as scum could potentially out a PR for your NK.
I don't know about all that, but this here? It sounds an awful lot like Mafia making a hard run on Town, hoping it was a PR making a soft falseclaim.


In post 88, Corwinoid wrote:The OMGUS does not impress.
But it's all I had!

Oh... you're talking to CCG...
...87 frames the argument pretty well I think.
It's
an
argument.
In post 90, Corwinoid wrote:@Spartan I don't usually buy into townslips or scumslips, but the over early claim does bother me. I'm glad you caught it since I scanned over it.
Yeah, this site has a stronk meta about early claims that I'm not used to so I'm literally ignoring CCG's Day 1
banter
. We'll see how that plays out.
It's not the kind of thing you do if you want to get attention off of you, because most of the time it is scummy.
It's a bold play, but fine when the wagons don't involve you. And this site has such a slow-ass Day, it would take a miracle to unwagon and rewagon against a naked vote.
Where is this consensus? I haven't seen it, so either I'm playing really poorly or this is the kind of mistake someone with a second thread might mike.
/taps bottom lip and makes "hmmm-hmmm" noises while admiring the beauty of this sentence
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Post Post #96 (isolation #6) » Sun Sep 25, 2022 7:32 am

Post by evileeyore »

Argh, I just wallposted and now I'm double posting.

I'm off to finish those deep dives and feel
really bad
( ;) ) about this and the above post.
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Post Post #109 (isolation #7) » Sun Sep 25, 2022 8:07 pm

Post by evileeyore »

catboi
Spoiler:
No Wiki Page.
-(Mod with no wiki page? What are they hiding?!?!)
Avatar choice: Some sort of catboy. Unanimated.
-(Very fitting. Pleasant colours. Unanimated, +Points. Armchair Pop-psych: High probability of being FFXIV player.)
4.5p/d (posts/day) in game! SPAMPOSTER ALERT! ;)

Prior Game History: Unnecessary, this is merely a humour posting.

TL/DR: Clearly best.


Mr Turtle
Spoiler:
No Wiki Page.
-(Oh no, and a game in the bag unreported?)
Avatar choice: Flying turtle, Animated.
-(Moving avatar, -points. Though it's a pleasant movement with an uplifting message, deduction minimized. Armchair Pop-psych: Unknown, probably likes turtles and image.)
98 posts total, 0.7p/d site average; 3 posts per 4 game days=0.75p/d


Day 1 repout, VT (Vanilla Townie), Scum Win
-(I'd have repped out too, friggin spam posters and... other types I'd hate to play with. To be clear, Mr. Turtle claims in the PT of Newbie 2090 that they repped out due to feeling overwhelemed, this is likely 110% true (it's in a PT with their Mafia partner, Newbie 2090), and I agree. I'd either have repped out or diamond hand voted the spammers... but there were so many spammers.)


Day 3 Elim, Mafia Goon, Town Win
-(This was a more reasonably post count game, looks like Turtle played a strong Mafia game and was only outed by a role.)
33 posts/14 days: 2.4p/d

Unsure, but possible stronk scum player. Might hate spamposting as much as I do. Possible attempt to "lurkslide", could just be style or Day Oneitis (having no strong reason to post).

TL/DR: Inconclusive.


SirRhett
Spoiler:
No Wiki Page.
-(With no prior games, this is understandable.)
Avatar: Black and white, Clark Gable, Unanimated.
-(Unanimated avatar, +points. Charismatic alpha male, very showman. Armchair Pop-psych: Hmmmmm.)
10 posts, 1.4p/d average; 70% of posts are in game thread: Inconclusive.

No prior games to review.

Self identifies (jokingly) as scum in first post here...
/pinches bridge of nose and deeply sighs
... probably
scum trying at "ye olde joke about being scum in first post" to allay suspicions
town making a joke.

TL/DR: Inconclusive.


evileeyore - PRODDED Once
Spoiler:
No Wiki Page - What Is He Hiding?
-(No games to report yet, is self-proclaimed Old Fart With No Time - likely an excuse.)
Avatar choice: Kuroneko from
Trigun
anime. Unmoving. Pixelation denotes "from the ancient days when avatars were smaller". Possible metastatement involving character choice?
-(Strong avatar choice, mos def approve. Armchair Pop-psych: Possible attemtps to mislead with fuzziness via falseclaim "Old Guy Who Doesn't Get All This New Fangled Intratubes".)
24 posts, 0.7p/d site average; 8 posts per 4 game days= 2.0p/d!
-(SPAMPOSTING ALERT! Likely excuse "Trying to avoid prod".)

No prior games onsite to review.

Self claims as having had a stronk wolf game "that one time back in the day, just trust me". Clearly has too much time on his hands
today
this weekend.

TL/DR: Strong townlean, totes trustworthy.
-(/dusts hands, job's a good'un.)


CCGeek - PRODDED Once
Spoiler:
No Wiki Page.
-(With no prior games, this is understandable.)
Avatar choice: Red on black 'flying v' symbol (Code Geass), slightly fuzzy.
-(Some sort of anime avatar? Unknown as
hate
strongly dislikes anime tropes and visual aestethics. Armchair Pop-psych: CCG probably likes Code Geass. 95% sure. Okay, 80%.)
7 posts, 0.6p/d; 85% of posts in game thread: Inconclusive.

No prior games to review.

CCCGeek zeroed in immediately, seems to know what they are about, no waste posts, efficient. Makes hard run at Corwinoid, claims "Newbie Error" (confusing Corwinoid and SirRhett) and then "tired", very sus. Possible scumteam with Corwinoid and attempt to distance.

TL/DR: Inconclusive, buuuuuuuut very dangerous if scum.


Nektarios - PRODDED Once
Spoiler:
No Wiki Page.
-(With no prior games, this is understandable.)
No Avatar.
-(Unanimated, not even existent, +1K points. Highly approve of avatar choice, bold statement, strong choice, no sarcasm at all. Armchair Pop-psych: Newb who hasn't chosen an avatar yet, or strong willed 'loner' type setting themselves 'outside teh box'.)
8 posts, 0.89p/d, 87.5% of posts in game thread: Inconclusive.

No prior games to review.

"Appears" to be a complete newb, even "pretends" to not know how to bold vote... hmmm. Either True Nub or scumfronting as True Nub.

TL/DR: Inconclusive.


HighPrincessErinys
Spoiler:
No Wiki Page.
-(With no prior games, this is understandable.)
Avatar: Cute young female (Medicine Melancholy(?)) from
Touhou
(?) anime, good colors, Unanimated.
-(Unanimated, +points. Armchair Pop-psych: After reading up on this character strongly recomend backing away slowly and avoiding eye-contact lest one gets any of that crazy on themselves.)
11 posts, 1.4p.d; 0.91% of posts in thread: Inconclusive.
No prior games to review.

Has linked Twitter account and MafiaScum post density exceeding 1 post per day, likely a "perpetually online youngling".
-(Prepping cane to shake in case they are spotted near lawn.)

Uses third person to self-reference, strong sense of humour, clearly a Kajhiit...
KHAJIIT IS INNOCENT! KHAJIIT DID NOT COMMIT THIS CRIME!
... wheh, okay knee-jerk memery has passed.

TL/DR: Probably Town.
-(Possible bias towards fellow Khajiit poster detected.)


Corwinoid SE (Which we all know means Scum Ensconced)
Spoiler:
No Wiki Page.
-(Is an SE with no wiki page? What Are They Hiding?!?!)
1058 posts; 0.2p/d; 13 posts per 4 game days= 3.3p/gd.
Avatar Choice: Black and white silhouette of fedora and glasses. Unmoving.
-(Stronk choice, bold. Unanimated, +points. Armchair Pop-psych: Unreadable. Probably on purpose... hmmm.)

Prior Games:

Day 2, Vanilla Town, Town Win
67 posts/28 days: 2.3p/d

"/confirm"


Night 3, Town (????*), Town Win
75 posts/30 days: 2.5p/d

"Pm recieved, its late here though, I'll jump in in the morning."

*-(I
literally
couldn't be arsed to figure out what the Roles were in this whackadoodle game.)


Day 1, Vanilla Town, Mafia Win
120 posts/10 days: 12p/d

"ICs are scum until proven otherwise:"
-(I couldn't agree more, vote all SE out until they prove themselves!)


Day 4, Mafia Goon, Town Win
91 posts/21 days: 4.3p/d

"I've been following the thread so I'm mostly up to date but I want to go back through things with a little more scrutiny before I lay into anything now that I've replaced in." - replaced in. Sun Jun 05, 2022 4:18 pm


Endgamed, Town, Mafia Win
249 posts/30 days: 8.3p/d

"Sup all... first game in a few years, probably more than a little rusty." Sun Jun 05, 2022 11:43 am


Day 1, Mafia Multi-Role; Mafia Win
39 post/7 days: 5.6p/d

"I'm caught up on the game but I don't have a lot to add right now, I've stayed up late to get the replacement sorted and I'm going to bed." - replaced in. 20220703


Day 3, Mafia Goon, Town Win
58 post/12 days: 4.8p/d

"I have not read the thread yet, will catch up asap though." - replaced in.

TL/DR: Corwin could be Town or Mafia, but irrespective of role, in 100% of the games Corwin is voted out Day 1
TOWN LOSES
. Also irrespective of role, in 100% of the games where Corwin survives to Day 2, Town Wins.

QED: Corwin must not be voted out Day 1. Every day thereafter is fair game, and won't affect Town Win stats at all.
-(Though, note: In 2/3rds of Corwin's Mafia Roles, Mafia Won, so he's dangerous as scum.)


Bellaphant SE
Spoiler:
No Wiki Page.
-(Is an SE with no wiki page? What Are They Hiding?!?!)
Avatar choice: Fuzzt penguin, Animated.
-(Animated, -points. Cutsey, seems to fit personality. Armchair Pop-psych: Clearly chosen to convey "cutsey, fuzziness", DO NOT BELIEVE: hides shark.)
14 posts per 4 game days= 3.5p/d

Prior Games:
-(I stopped at ten because I'm not getting paid enough for this! And Bella has a loooooooooooooong history, so don't think there was like, only 11 and I was just being lazy. I mean, I am, but for good reason.)
20200705 viewtopic.php?f=2&t=83597 Mini Normal 2153
Day 4, Vanilla Town, Mafia Win
164 posts/31 days: 5.3p/d

"VOTE: PLAYER
Late! And going to be later, it's 2am(ish) here"


Survived, Town, Town Win
135 posts/35 days: 3.9p/d

"VOTE: PLAYER

Ready for another perfect game?"


Survived, Vanilla(?) Town, Town Win
199 posts/26 days: 7.7p/d

"Perfect timing.

VOTE: PLAYER the probability gods just want it to be this way ;)"


Survived, Vanilla Town, Town Win
89 posts/23 days: 3.9p/d

"VOTE: PLAYER

I hate numbers"


Day 5, Cult Leader, Town Win
127 posts/26 days: 4.9p/d

"First.

VOTE: PLAYER I have to be right once!"


Day 2, Town Multi-Role; Mafia Win
34 posts/13 days: 2.6p/d

"VOTE: PLAYER"


Endgamed, Town, Mafia Win
82 posts/37 days: 2.2p/d

"Divulge first. Or we lol hammer PLAYER. Don't really mind which ;) "


Day 2, Mafia Goon, Town Win
87 posts/13 days: 6.7p/d

"UNVOTE:

Read quickly through, the PLAYER and PLAYER look town, the PLAYER wagon looks really inorganic and I don't know why PLAYER is a consensus tow read." - replaced in.


Day 4, Mafia Goon, Mafia Win
154 posts/31 days: 4.9p/d

"VOTE: PLAYER
Apparently one of has to be mafia now"


Day 3, Town Neighbor, Mafia Win
30 posts/23 days: 1.3p/d

"VOTE: PLAYER"

TL/DR: Bella has a completely average game rate, and Town wins just as often regardless of whether Bella is Town or Mafia. However I was wrong, there is zero evidence to support keeping alive past Day 1, they've never been offed Day 1 (in the ten games I surveyed). However they prefer to Vote Post as first post, admirable quality.

QED: Recommend wagoning Bella off Day 1 just to see what happens, FOR SCIENCE! :P
(Bella has likely been wagoned Day 1 in at least one of her 5 bazillion games, just have to dig deeper enough.)


Spartan117 SE - PRODDED Once
Spoiler:
No Wiki Page.
-(Is an SE with no wiki page? What Are They Hiding?!?!)
Avatar choice: Doomguy? Unanimated. Slightly upward looking to the right.
-(Unanimated, +points. Armchair Pop-psych: Choice of "Doomguy" is telling, but "looking upward towards heavens" probably meant to convey hope or some other bs. Or just likes "Doomguy". :) )
1242 posts, 0.41p/d; 16 posts per 3 game days= 5.3p/d

Prior Games:
-(Thank ZOD Spartan only has 7 prior completed games. Good man.)
viewtopic.php?f=50&t=73139]Newbie 1820 | Cake Wrecks
Night 2, Town Jailkeeper, Mafia Win
141 posts/23 days: 6.1p/d

"Sacrilege, cant trust a Norse Beast to know a good Greek state.

Nice red eyes you have ;) http://yugioh.wikia.com/wiki/Fenrir"


Night 2, Town 1xBulletproof, Mafia Win
132 posts/31 days: 4.3p/d

"BP
VOTE: PLAYER
L-2"


Survived, Mafia Rolecop, Mafia Win
146 posts/43 days: 3.4p/d

Complicated first post, I'm not copypastaing it; Spartan lead with an RVS vote and engaged another Player in reads with some quoting going on.


Night 2, Vanilla Town, Mafia Win
67 posts/19 days: 3.5p/d

"Hi all,
So in typical RVS fashion, I'm gonna use a random number generator and vote the number that comes up...

Welp...

VOTE: Spartan117

:facepalm:


Also just putting it out there that PLAYER is on L-2 btw so no newbies hammer him by mistake.

PLAYER could you also follow PLAYERs advice its important for all players as a whole to help identify who is who"


Survived, Mafia Goon, Mafia Win
172 posts/28 days: 6.1p/d

"Greetings Comrades.

There is simply only room in here for 1 person with numbers in their name and it shall be I.

VOTE: PLAYER"


Night 1, Vanilla Town, Town Win
49 posts/3 days: 16.3p/d

"Hey Guys good to be back in the game its been a while I was getting the bug and wanted to jump back in.

I have been playing this on and off since 2015, a couple games every 2 years, think my first game was with Bella in 2015 and my second was with our almighty mod Humaneatingmonkey in 2017, so its fair to say im pretty rusty. Tbh I am just glad to be here and dip my toe in the water again.

I need to give the whole thread a more thorough read through but from first glance the PLAYER v PLAYER convo, I think PLAYER's postings have been to obtain reactions and see who bites and how hard. I've seen it before in a previous game different context but same method. I think his method is strange but I think its always useful D1 to get out of the RVS for something like that to happen to push conversation into a more seriously inquisitive direction.

I know it can seem weird for town to intentionally do something that comes across scummy, but imo one of the best ways to hunt scum is to do so via reactions. The trick then is to try and ascertain who is trying to be scummy to gauge reactions and who is being scummy because they actually are." - replaced in.


Night 2, Town Tracker, Mafia Win
177 posts/22 days: 8.0p/d

"My Sus-ometer is going off I think I've found one of them VOTE: PLAYER PLAYER do you want to join me?"

TL/DR: In 100% of games where Spartan survives to see Day 2,
TOWN LOSES
.

QED: For the good of town, we must remove Spartan before Day 2 dawns, and we cannot trust scum to do this for us overnight.



NOTE: the above posts/day for this thread were taken as of Post #100, I refused to do anymore more math, even simple math like refiguring for a few extra posts and an extra day.

This post was brought to by correlation, it's not just coincidence anymore.

Oh and I have a chart:
Spoiler:
Image

You know what? I am not editing that pic again! I'm done! This was all waaaaay too much work for what started as a jokepost. I have no idea where it went awry and ate up an entire day and became semi-serious. I blame my OCD, it refused to let me half-arse it.

In post 107, Corwinoid wrote:With 5 and a half days left, what makes you think we're even close to a hammer? If anybody quick hammered before a claim and discussion they would be the obvious elim tomorrow, which is suboptimal as either alignment.
That is why I backed off Bella, all it would have taken was inexperienced scum to quickhammer... though I'm semi-serious about Spartan and plan to stick unless we get very good reads.

But for now I'm off, it's stupid-o'clock in the morn and I have to get up for work in under 4 hours. I might or might post again then, mos def in about 15 hours.
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Post Post #115 (isolation #8) » Mon Sep 26, 2022 2:10 am

Post by evileeyore »

In post 113, Spartan117 wrote:So please don't misrepresent my game history.
I didn't. Not one thing I said was false (except calling your avatar "Doomguy", and that was purely to get a rise :wink: ).

Everything stated (about games played, game ends states, roles, etc - opinions in parentheses are like, just my opinion man) are 100% factual. It might not paint the picture you want to see, or want others to see, but it is what it is.

You do understand correlation right? I'm not saying "Spartan is scum because if he survives Day 1 Town loses in games he plays", I said "if Spartan sees the light of Day 2, Town Loses". In fact, based solely on correlative deduction, if we elim you Day 1, it's quite likely to be a miselim.

But for the sake of the bit, I'm okay taking that risk, especially when you seem to think your vote is the hammer on CCG.
Using the fact that as town I can play well enough to be the nk choice and thus didn't get to later days is not a reason to push for a day 1 elim on me.
Yeeeeah, don't break your arm there sir. I'm not sure that's exactly what happened, but I'm willing to revisit that game (and the Mafia PT for it, who knows, maybe scum was pissing themselves over your very existence).
I get you may be just trying reaction testing from this and drive content which can be good...
That is half of it.
... but the sort of
narrative
you are driving is not so.
I'm not driving a narrative. I set out facts and derived a potential path forward using correlation.

You however have been jumpstarting narratives...
Starting with SEs to be eliminated and now using someone's win percentage and times they got further into previous games that should have no baring on our actual alignments other than just reading different play styles
It's the meta, which informs as to playstyle, which blah-blah.

Frex, Corwin likes to feign outrage and upset as part of his playstyle. Bella runs after everyone with endless "But what do you think about this" questions and seems to think failure to answer those questions is "scumy". And you "get very upset" when the game isn't going your way (regardless of alignment). That's all meta.
Next you will be looking at the number of times we each rolled town or scum and using that to say we are scum now because we had X number of town games in the past. That's just not how maths works. It's 2/8 every game to be scum it doesn't change.
That would be so sloppy even I wouldn't stoop to it as a bit (damn, now I need something for my Day 2 bit).
To get a miselim from the events and conversation that occurs in a game happens, it's unfortunate but it gives results from the flips with associations, but to get one from events that occurred in different games that have no connection to someone's alignment in a current game is bad play.
And yet, Corwin and Bella's reads off one another, information gleaned from other games, is a-okay? I think your trying very hard here. And that's the key, "try" and "hard".
If you are town I like your work ethic and dedication but am concerned that your misguided points could mislead other newb town into thinking it is a legitimate reason to scum read someone.
By ZOD I hope not. I tried to be clear this is Day One "RSV Banting", but still at the end of Day 1 we have to have a reason to vote, and I like the correlation.
If you're scum then your reasoning on scum reading me and wanting me eliminated Day 1 based off the events of previous games makes sense, but you already know that.
Nah, your scumgame is super stronk, but baring a reread, I'm not getting that feel for your towngame.
In post 114, Spartan117 wrote:I think its time we had our first flip and get some actual information so given that we look to already have the role claimed.
VOTE: CCGeek
You already voted CCG. This doesn't shift the day one iota. Unless this is some sort of "call to arms"? But then if it is... okay?

If you're Mafia, there is no way your third scumpartner joins the wagon. I have 'townlean' feelings on Bella* and HPE* so far. Nektarios and SirRhett are pure tabla rasa to me right now. I'm getting "likely not scum" on Corwinoid*. And unless I'm misremembering, you've driven hard busses on your scum partners before.

(And yes, that's a "scumishkindalean" on Mr Turtle* in case y'all didn't read between the lines.)
*(And yes Bella, I'll come back on these tonight, but I have to go to work right now.)
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Post Post #168 (isolation #9) » Mon Sep 26, 2022 6:54 pm

Post by evileeyore »

In post 110, Bellaphant wrote:Those were not the reasons I expected to keep me and cor alive day one!
I live to be surprising!
I was expecting: Bella always gets wagoned day one, especially as town...
Except in your last ten games you've sailed through Day 1 (but yes, previous1, this is true).

1 - I'm ignoring "back-in-the-day" games you played, even those "Bella is policywagoned Day 1", because you played differently then, and that all should be left in the past. I only read back roughly twentyish games on you (and then some further in the recesses in the weeks before this game)... and yes, honestly ran out of recording steam by game 10. I might do a hard Bella deep read again some day because I swear to ZOD you play in almost every game, so it should worth it.
... and corwin becomes really easy to spot as scum based on tone.
Kinda, yeah. But his Day 1 RVS is generally smooth and calm.
Do you s e any differences in entrances between town!Bella, corwin, Spartan, and scum? Or post count? Just looking for some processing.
No, not really.

Okay, Corwin has a shift, but there's also the fact that several of those games are reps in and rather large time jumps between games. Honestly, with both of Corwin and Spartan it feels more like Players settling in to their styles rather than actual differences in Day 1 posting. At least that's my take on those two. I have a stronger feel for your style, or rather I trust my read more because your games are closer in time, more prolific, and come after a significant effort on your part to shift your whole style into the one you play now. Your style has more consistent notes.

But regardless, I never really trust my Day 1 feels as they are usually shite, wrong, and prone to error. Late Day 2 is better.
In post 131, Bellaphant wrote:I assumed that was at me..I am an emotional player but 'very upset ' isn't a description of my meta I recognise though. I dunno, I want some actual analysis out of this slot. There's a lot of words coming from a bunch of slots without much content.
No, no, 'very upset' was aimed at Spartan.
In post 134, Bellaphant wrote:
I don't want analysis of emotion
, I just want ee to actually try to compare what they've read to either scum!ses or town ses.
"ses"? I am not parsing the lingo there.

But, in case... I'm getting kinda town feels for you and Corwin based on prior game plays and Day 1s here. Not hard, but enough to back off you and I really find the "Don't kill Corwin Day 1 or else" correlation funny. Spartan is feeling Mafia, but admittedly, this could be from some of the people in the games he's been in hard rubbing me wrong and leaving a bias. I need to reread those prior games of his in ISO (which I hate to do because that never works for me - no one posts in isolation, so I distrust reads in ISO).

"Analysis of emotion", sorry (not sorry) Bella, that's my playstyle. I'm not an engineer, I'm an insurance salesman. So I come at these games with gut-reads and hard social plays.
There's a lot of numbers thrown about but not a lot of understanding.
It's correlation deduction (which is a bit naf, but it was a 'joke' setup for "why am I switching to Spartan"... but it really did turn semi serious).
I don't know what to do with 'vt', 'meatsheild' , 'conf;town', 'i mean however you read me.' feels like flailing.
It does and it feels newbish rather than aligned to me.


In post 117, Spartan117 wrote:
In post 115, evileeyore wrote:I'm not getting that feel for your towngame.
Any reasoning for this, or just another baseless comment you concluded from skimming through a few pages of a game or two...
I read the PT's for the Mafia for both those games. You didn't get NKed Night 1 in Newbie 2096 because of fear, you went out because you hard townread BBT who was mafia and whacking you made him look town (also you were universally townread). And in Newbie 2099 BBT reads you as Tracker Day 1, but then both scum panic Day 2 over a misread of the JK actions thinking it they were facing Cop/Doc and promptly forgot you existed till Day 3*, at which point they came back to "oh yeah, Spartan is probably Tracker, he needs to go tonight and we probably lose tomorrow".

My response was: No Spartan, your towngame isn't so strong you had to be removed immediately, your towngame is pretty average (just like most people's).

* And that's an error in the chart above, I blame mods who don't post what Day/Night things happen and my miscounting Days when I took notes on your games.
You know what I guess I really did miss underestimate you, It should have been obvious to you...
Sigh. It should have, it really, really should have. No excuse, your plays are generally more deliberate (though, to be fair to me, I read your games from newest to oldest, and you made a few errors in those first games - so that was fresher on my mind).
At what point does this go from baiting to just being rude?
Ehhh, "not going your way" was a might over the line. To be fair to you, I'd be highly annoyed with those games you were banging your head against and would probably come across as "highly aggressive, very upset" as well.
You can't say if I have or have not ever feigned outrage in any of my games, you simply wouldn't know.
I didn't say you did, I said you get upset (Corwin feigns outrage). Your upset felt genuine.
I have done exactly the same thing you are describing that bella does in most of my games.
You're more aggressive about it.


In post 140, Corwinoid wrote:Scum team is probably geek and turtle. I'm about to walk into a meeting for the rest of the afternoon so I'll case it later.
I don't like "team" reads Day 1, but I'm very willing to hear more about your thoughts vis-a-vis CCG and Turtle.


In post 145, HighPrincessErinys wrote:As for evileeyore... Could he be scum, stirring the pot intentionally? Town doing the same?
I just hard pot-stir Day 1 (and often everyday thereafter if things are slow) to drive re/actions.
Actually not trying to be mean, just coming off that way?
I'm also mean. Not trying to be, but I do roll hard on people when I think they can and will fight back and Spartan appeared to be a fighter.
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Post Post #169 (isolation #10) » Mon Sep 26, 2022 7:23 pm

Post by evileeyore »

And now for something completely different...
In post 141, Corwinoid wrote:Preflip assocs are RVS and double bussing if you want to look for them before I'm back.
I'm only seeing one consistent doulebus... huh. I'll have to track every vote individually to see the pattern and it's already past stupid o'clock for me.
In post 159, Bellaphant wrote:I've already explained that I find the jumping around the claim scummy af. I was waiting to hear from Eeyore again but I'll intent to hammer anyway.
From here forth consider me in a constant state of "Intent To Hammer".

Day 1 I try to avoid it as long as possible (which in my prior games was like 3-5 days tops, blitz be like that). Here, I think we have almost enough. Bella, if you feel the need to hammer drop before I come back super late Tuesday night or Wednesday morning, feel free to getterdun!

(I mean, you don't need permission, but don't feel like you need to wait on me. While I lurve some scumwringing, at some point it's just hammer time.)

In post 164, CCGeek wrote:So I'd simply like to point out that Eeyore has been exceptionally silent after the big 'wall-post' in p5.
I mean... now when I say "Bruh, I have a job" it's gonna sound hella sus.

But bruh, I work a job where internet is
heavily
restricted, so I'll be posting mostly GMT 11am-12pm (lightly posting) and then longer posting anywhere from GMT 11pm to 4am.

Except on Tuesday nights, that's game night and my IRL game group time is sacred. Ah, that reminds me, I probably don't need to (because I can fluffpost tomorrow morn), but how does one V/LA for a day to preemptively prodge (is V/LA the correct term)?
I also like how Corwinoid sets up work as a potential excuse for missing out on some stuff.
/deep sigh
Okay this is gonna sound super-dupery sus... but that's just Corwin. His meta is always super busy and constantly catching up on game.
Also, is being self-conscious over my posts and what they reflect not necessary for stopping incorrect allegations at me?
Eh, I don't read it that way. I felt the meatshielding was a bit sus, but only because you're stealing my Day 2 play. Precognitively stealing another's play? Mos def totes sus.
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Post Post #181 (isolation #11) » Tue Sep 27, 2022 2:09 am

Post by evileeyore »

In post 170, Corwinoid wrote:A short timeline of association: In Turtle comes in with a very late RVS on Geek, and then disappears. Turtle gets prodded in Nekt puts Geek at -1, and Turtle comes back and immediately unvotes, then immediately comments in about not being ready for a hammer, despite not really being in hammer territory at that point. This entire sequence looks incredibly scummy.
I strongly disagree with your reasoning on Mr Turtle, To me they're coming across as someone who, like me*, is used to an entirely different culture where "lol hammers" and blitzing is prominent. Frex, in the place I played over a decade ago we'd be in the last plays by now, it's been more than seven days since game start!

Which is why despite being ABC (Always Be Closing/Culling†) and getting out the vote, I didn't hammer CCG the moment it was available. This site's culture is vastly different. But it's been a tempting 'big red button' everyday for me.


* Sure it's been over a decade, but it's all coming back to me. I'm just not as "eternally online" now as I was back then.
† I feel really embarrassed I didn't have Culling as the C the first time I posted it. It took a whole ass 24 hours after posting it to figure that wording out. Sigh, old age, it's not for the young.
Points against Geek:
About half of your points are probably "newb not playing the game you're used to".
This is the double bus I said I'd comment on in .
Aha, I was tracing vote patterns not comments last night. But yes, that's a part of what's been feeding my Mr Turtle feels.
Turtle's RVS bus and then this FOS @ Turtle for getting out of the driver's seat.
FOS? Red flag on the play! -1 town points for jargoning!

(It means Finger Of Suspicion my fellow nubs, it's "pointing suspicion at someone else when you aren't going to vote them". Speaking of jargoning, what is PoE? I get it's Process of Elimination, but it has no further definitions and the wiki page is blank, can I get a briefing on that term? Been meaning to ask that for a few weeks.)
I'm 90% sure I haven't noticed ee's existence...
:cry: But senpai?
... except for someone misspelling Eeyore earlier and upsetting me too. I'm also really disappointed he didn't make an appropriately depressed response to that.
Appropriately depressed response? I OMGUSed Bella over it! (initially)

But the capitalizing the first letter is just something I've gotten used to, "capitalizing proper nouns" is one of those 'hard ingrained' things for some people.
Otherwise his play hasn't been particularly noteworthy -
:dead: senpai hath killeded me


In post 173, Mr Turtle wrote:It's perfectly justified to say "I scum-read x, but I don't want the day to end early, so I won't vote them."
A-B-C dude. Always Be Culling. If you have strong enough scumfeel on someone to say "I think they're scum", that
should
be enough. But I agree, I'm feeling a hand on the wheel here and I'm not sure it's town driving anymore.

The last day's posts from Corwin have shifted my reading, this sudden turn into hardcore territory feels more like a quick scumplay than a serious appeal to town. But I won't have time for another reread until Wednesday night. So see y'all thenish.
I find it interesting that in a scum CCG and Turtle world that I wouldn't stay on the bus for cred.
He's painting a picture of "this is how newbscum play", and it's compelling, but it also feels sudden.
Perhaps my hopping off put the spotlight even more on CCG.
Nah, it really only highlighted you. But my read of that was "town wanting more D1 time to read the plays". It's the lurksliding* that's feeding my "Turtle might be scumish" feels.

* And if CCG is scum, he's painting a strong "Turtle is my scumbro" painting right now, which would be amazeballs if it's a subtle shift of sus to townie to further draw shade off his real partner. Like, if CCG flips red and you flip green after, CCG gets my MVP vote for this play.
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Post Post #216 (isolation #12) » Wed Sep 28, 2022 12:45 am

Post by evileeyore »

In post 212, Corwinoid wrote:Lastly, it's also a little WIFOMy and too hypothetical to go Geek/EE on this guessing at their motivations and that they'd both publicly declare it instead of coordinated in the PT... like it's possible that's a thing and they both overplayed the idea, but it takes
way too many assumptions for me to be comfortable with it.
Image
In post 213, Corwinoid wrote:I guess now that I've tipped my hand on the / thing, this wagon needs to happen.

A vote for evil: VOTE: evil
Not that uncomfortable apparently. :lol:


Spoiler:
Eeeeeeee! Senpai noticed me! :oops:

And yes, apologies catboi, I know I requested V/LA for today, but I'm
addicted
.
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Post Post #242 (isolation #13) » Wed Sep 28, 2022 11:24 am

Post by evileeyore »

Forgive formatting, phone posting due to hurricane blackouts.

@Spartan: the quotes are orphans of most recently above quoted person, some are from other posts. Did not consider post links, will retain those in future.

@All: Still seeing CCG as town in throws of survival flailing. Getting strong Corwinscum feels. FoS Nektarios or Sir Rhett as partner.

More when blackouts cease.
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Post Post #252 (isolation #14) » Wed Sep 28, 2022 4:02 pm

Post by evileeyore »

In post 249, Nektarios wrote:
In post 248, Nektarios wrote:Blah, I missed your first sentence somehow.
(Off Topic) Yup... (vote)Ian(/vote) bored now, can't sleep, lack of AC will roast me.

Thank ZOD there is a vote tag, between this garbage interface and Android (no brackets on Android ui) phone voting would be unpossible.
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Post Post #254 (isolation #15) » Wed Sep 28, 2022 5:00 pm

Post by evileeyore »

In post 253, Corwinoid wrote:
In post 252, evileeyore wrote:
In post 249, Nektarios wrote:
In post 248, Nektarios wrote:Blah, I missed your first sentence somehow.
(Off Topic) Yup... (vote)Ian(/vote) bored now, can't sleep, lack of AC will roast me.

Thank ZOD there is a vote tag, between this garbage interface and Android (no brackets on Android ui) phone voting would be unpossible.
If you hit the symbol button the lower left, the brackets are under 9 and 0.

Don't kill your battery, and stay safe bro.
That's where paranthesis are on my phone... (but I did find a few more nested submenus for symbols and found them there) still hate phone posting, it's giving me carpal tunnel (stupid tiny stylus).

Anyway, reread Spartan's previous games (told ya was bored). I don't necessarily think he's right, but I no longer think he's wrong.

HAMMER TIME
VOTE: CCGeek
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Post Post #270 (isolation #16) » Mon Oct 03, 2022 12:55 pm

Post by evileeyore »

In post 263, Corwinoid wrote:I don't think both scum were on wagon.
Agreed. You weren't on the wagon.

And yes, it's entirely possible neither were on the wagon.

In post 264, Bellaphant wrote:Also, the flip means that there is another mason. Do not claim at this point, i think.
Care to elaborate as to why not? At this point it's a powerless role. They knew one other person was conftown, and that person is eliminated.

It's not as though the scum don't know they are town... the only people who don't have confirmation of them being town
are the rest of town
.

QED: May as well claim and lock a conftown for the day. Unless I'm tragically offbase here?
In post 264, Bellaphant wrote:Weird pop in from Nek....
Not really, I noticed it too, but just couldn't be arsed to ask about it at 1:30am (catboi had a copypasta error in the Day 2 start post).


In post 265, Spartan117 wrote:... I was a bit taken aback that it was cut short with EE hammering...
Two people had stated Intent To Hammer when CCG was at E-1.
More than 24hrs
later both jumped on
your
wagon to see it through.

And sorry, you had some questions in a post earlier that I think I missed due to Hurricane Ian, I'll get back to them when I've got time.


In post 269, Mr Turtle wrote:It being an entirely town wagon would imply a scum team of exactly me and Rhett. Do you agree with that assessment?
Corwinoid wasn't on the wagon...
In post 269, Mr Turtle wrote:Unrelated, but I feel like the NK points to an SE in the scum team.
Pretty sure at least one of the scum are an SE. Killing HPE was a smooth move to avoid suspicions as they weren't rolling hard on anyone, so their death points no fingers.
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Post Post #277 (isolation #17) » Mon Oct 03, 2022 6:42 pm

Post by evileeyore »

Wait? "Not voting..." everyone? Hmmm, something looks wrong with that list... oh right. Silly me, A.B.C.

VOTE: Corwinoid
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Post Post #300 (isolation #18) » Wed Oct 05, 2022 8:52 am

Post by evileeyore »

In post 280, Bellaphant wrote: I don't think the kill necessarily points to an se team, I think the slot was just widely town read.
And inoffensively Town was my point. HPE wasn't random (IMO) because they were one of the few that were neither aggressive (me, Spartan), nor lurking* (Sir Rhett, Mr Turtle), nor hardcore "solving" (Spartan117, Corwinoid), nor "sliding"* (Nektarios), nor eliminated (CCGeek).

* I almost put Nektarios in 'lurking' and then realized they weren't lurking, they just weren't posting anything substantive and so made a new category (for myself to categorize people). Why didn't I put HPE in the "lurking" category? I always felt like I knew what HPE was about when I mentally reviewed the thread, not so much for SR, MT, or Nekt, so I never considered HPE a luker despite the numbers saying otherwise. So I split it into two categories, but it's really the same thing for me, "these posters aren't posting enough substance for me to have a solid feel for their style".

I almost put Bella into sliding, but honestly,
I feel her style
, it's not what I call "substantive" but it can draw substance out from others. It's questioning with out following up on those questions - probably because Bella is taking in the answers and then
adjusting themself
based on the answer, but not interacting back until questioned.
Which is her style
- it's just hard for me to read motivations with out a lot of pushback on her or enough Days to feel her Vote pattern.
In post 280, Bellaphant wrote: I've only ever played one newbie with masons, I find the concept really weird. I could well be wrong about claiming - it just gives the scum team a fairly good no tonight, as there can't be any protectives.
Mason claiming now has no bearing on that... however, I've had a real long think about it and I agree:

Mason, do not claim unless you get wagoned and are in danger of Hammer.

Early claiming will only give you one day of guaranteed survival (you would then be Night Killed) but holding off the claim until you are hard wagoned can help avoid your miselimination later.
In post 280, Bellaphant wrote:I think it's also valid not to claim to see who starts pushing the slot in a scummy way.
I don't really think that's going to matter. Especially not at this point, but even if they did early claim.
In post 280, Bellaphant wrote:What I didn't like about nek's pop in is that it didn't say anything else: it felt like posting for the sake of it.
That's been my feel for Nektarios this whole game... which is why that post is not standing out to me at all.

In post 283, Mr Turtle wrote: Why would the scum team random kill someone when they could try to pick up on one of the PRs? That doesn't make much sense to me.
They would have to be S-Tier readers to have pulled "HPE is a Mason" out of their butt from I've read... which isn't unpossible, I'm just sayin.

I agree HPE wasn't whacked for being Mason, but I'm now thinking they were whacked for being inoffensive.
In post 289, Corwinoid wrote:I'm still wavering about Bella, maybe two on.
If so then that would mean (under your reads) that two experienced* players decided to back-to-back hammer a wagon and thought they could get away with it with both you and Spartan right there watching.


* This ain't my first row-day-o.

And yes, right after I typed the above I said to myself, "Now Spartan is going to bring up my "maybe scum is trying something new" and slap me with it."
In post 289, Corwinoid wrote: It
nullifies the RB
in A3 and matches evenly against the goon-goon setup in C3. At least that's the theoretical reason... as a matter of course I'm unsure about
red herring roles
in newbie games, but there it is.
/slaps table

That's what I've been feeling about that setup. I've been noodling it for weeks trying to figure out "why have a Roleblocker Mafia with a Mason pair, what is the point". Red herring. Damn, that's a little bit of genius and as long as the scum are excitable (and unlucky for a few Days/Nights) it's a subtle Town lean to the game.

Okay...
now
NewD3 makes sense to me. Damn, yeah... oh yeah. I think I might just actually like it a bit more than Open... it's got some real nice subtle complexity to the analysis game scum side that I wasn't picking up on before you mentioned red herring (despite reading the Mafia thread for one of Spartan's last games where the scum were totally panicked over a misread of the Town PRs even after fingering an opposite Town Power Role for Spartan).

Kinda genius (don't tell RadiantCowbells I said that).


In post 291, Nektarios wrote:... but now I think my voting spreadsheet might even be more useful in light of the D1/N1 outcomes.
Post your numbers (so I don't have to :wink: ).


In post 297, Bellaphant wrote:Also, does ee be so aggressive as new scum?
ee be so aggressive at all times (in game). It's what I enjoy, the social "aggression", butting heads, and sniffing out motives. I... I actually kinda suck at scumhunting by the numbers or PR hunting, etc... I am pretty good at sussing out possible motivations, which at the end of the Day
kinda
helps with scumhunting.
In post 297, Bellaphant wrote:At least some of it looks like solving.
It's a form of solving, just like your style. But, just like your style, it also works equally for 'evil' purposes.


In post 119, Spartan117 wrote:
In post 109, evileeyore wrote:For the good of town, we must remove Spartan before Day 2 dawns
Lets say with all your "logic" that TownEvil gets TownSpartan eliminated Day 1 and putting the nk to one side as I wouldn't know where to start on a hypothetical of who that would be, who would be the elim Day 2?

Would you be back onto Bella or Corwin? Or would you actually look to your lineup of newbies for the scum team? Perhaps the pied piper never ousts one of his own into the cold.
Hmmm, "logic", you read that correctly (it was a pure comedy post with some mild information). Okay, I think this is the question I missed earlier, not sure it's useful to answer now, but, I did say I'd go back for it.

I'm not 100% sure at this point, things have changed, however, at the time I think my Day 2 push (if you flipped Red) would have been on either Sir Rhett or Nektarios as they were the ones I felt were lurksliding the hardest, as in I had the least feels on.

However, had you flipped Green, I'd have pushed Corwinoid or Bellaphant, whoever's motivations felt "scummier".

I couldn't get you flipped (that was pretty damn clear by the time Ian rolled in) so I pushed on with my Intent To Hammer,
as it had done it's job for me
, but in a blackout it became untenable to continue making arguments.

Honestly, hammering CCG was equal parts "it's going to happen anyway" and "I'm not physically capable of posting for several days, may as well enforce a posting break for everyone but scum".

(And then the server host had issues and got an even longer break, when it rains, it pours.)

Apologies CCGeek, you were sacrificed to keep my arm from aching even worse than it did after I hammered you (damn phone-post induced carpel tunnel).



Day 2 opening motivation reads:

Spartan117 - Town who read wrong but pushed hard.

Mr Turtle - Town lurker.


Bella - Questioning, soft digging, posting 110% in style - DANGER CANNOT READ.

Sir Rhett - Too much lurksliding, not enough hard substance posting.


Nektarios - sus - too much insubstantial posting, jumped onto the wagon to bring it back into hammer range for evile and Bella, hard FoSed by HPE.

Corwinoid - Scum. Started the wagon, jumped off the moment it became a clear shoo-in
but continued pushing for it
despite a seeming "intent to wagon evileeyore".



So... we need to eliminate Corwinoid and then when he flips RED, his buddy Nektarios. I'm also game for going the other direction, but, honestly, Corwinoid is the more experienced player so it's a much safer play to remove them first.
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Post Post #301 (isolation #19) » Wed Oct 05, 2022 8:55 am

Post by evileeyore »

PR-Edit: Page Top!
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Post Post #318 (isolation #20) » Wed Oct 05, 2022 2:24 pm

Post by evileeyore »

In post 303, Spartan117 wrote:Yes, very dubiously squints eyes intently at you, it would not be advisable for the only conf town left to claim and give themself up for the scum nk, lets at least get the scum team to try and do some work, they already get to be all mysterious and shit :igmeou:
Yeah, I figured that out on my own and it only took me two whole days.

Admittedly part of figuring it out was Corwin's 'red herring' comment.
In post 304, Spartan117 wrote:So youuuu waas protecting meee?
No, I carried through on my intent.
In post 305, Spartan117 wrote:But why does that mean the scum has an SE in it...
Sure, us newbs coiuld have come to it on our own, no doubt. But the more likely move for a newb scum team would be to remove the SE players, the ones who have proven track records.
... I just don't like the generic thought of well there was some complex analysis put into that NK so therefore it has to be the players who have played more who did it.
It wasn't that complex a thought. It's also, admittedly, weighing the odds.

Hypothetical: You are me: Townie evileeyore. Coming out of Night One you know exactly 3 people are Town and 2 of them are eliminated. That leaves 6 people who split nicely into two groups, SEs and Newbs. Odds are that both scum are
not
in one group. Ergo, Q.E.D., etc.
In post 308, Spartan117 wrote:@EE @Turtle given your statements about what the NK says, who would each of you have picked as your NK target at the end of Day 1?
Me? If it were Mafia evileeyore, given my Day 1 plays, I'd ice you or Corwin, whichever pointed less fingers at my partner (because icing either of you FoSes me). I'd lean Corwin, but you'd be my number 2 pick. Having run a hard wagon on a Townie
could
make you an easy Day 2 elim, but I still consider you more dangerous than Bella or the lurkers. So if killing Corwin would paint my partner as scum, I'd off you and try to wagon Corwin on Day 2. (Presuming of course, that it's a pure Newbscum team, if it were me and SE as Scumteam, I'd be arguing against any kill that hewed to closely to following the site culture)

Then Bella on either Night 2 or Day 3.
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Post Post #323 (isolation #21) » Wed Oct 05, 2022 3:51 pm

Post by evileeyore »

In post 320, Corwinoid wrote:I'm the one who pushed that wagon the hardest...
You and Spartan were pushing equally, you got on earlier, but once Spartan decided it was time to geek CCGeek, he was on that wagon hard.

While you dove off
but kept pushing it
. Yeah, yeah, I get it "but I really, really, really did think CCG was scum" is your answer. I mean, I flat out said I was pretty sure my Hammer was a miselim loooooooooooooooong before I cast that vote. I just didn't have any solid scumreads until you bailed, but keep pressuring a flailing a newb.
In post 319, Corwinoid wrote:Why do you specifically prefer EE?
He was my second choice for D1 and I don't think anyone has more scum equity right now.[/quote]I'll note, your first choice also had "a lot of scum equity" according to you, and they flipped Green.

Maybe you need to adjust your "scumdar"?
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Post Post #324 (isolation #22) » Wed Oct 05, 2022 5:06 pm

Post by evileeyore »

How the votes went down, day by day in one handy spot:
Spoiler: Vote Count Table
PAGEDAYDATEPLAYER POSTVOTE
Page 1Day 120220921BellaphantRSV: evil eye (evileeyore)
NektariosRSV: (unbolded) Bellaphaphant
NektariosRSV: Bellaphaphant
CorwinoidRSV: Spartan117
CCGeekRSV: HighPrincessErinys
evileeyoreRSV: Bellaphant
Page 1Day 120220922HighPrincessErinysRSV: SirRett
SirRhettRSV: (unbolded) Spartan117
Bellaphantsir rhett (SirRhett)
Page 2Day 120220922SirRhettRSV: Spartan117
Spartan117RSV: Mr Turtle
CorwinoidSirRhett
20220923Mr TurtleRSV: CCGeek
SirRhettUNVOTE (Spartan117)
Page 3Day 120220924*HighPrincessErinysUNVOTE (SirRhett)
HighPrincessErinysBellaphant
SirRhettSpartan117
20220925BellaphantUNVOTE (SirRhett)
CorwinoidCCGeek
Page 4Day 120220925CCGeekCorwinoid
Spartan117CCGeek
evileeyoreSpartan117
Page 5Day 120220925HighPrincessErinysUNVOTE Bellaphant
20220926NektariosCCGeek
Mr TurtleUNVOTE CCGeek
HighPrincessErinysCCGeek
Spartan117CCGeek
Page 6Day 120220926CCGeekSpartan117
Page 7Day 120220926NO VOTES[/url]
Page 8Day 120220927Bellaphantmr turtle
SirRhettNektarios
NektariosUNVOTE CCGeek
Page 9Day 120220927Corwinoidevil (evileeyore)
NektariosCCGeek
Page 10Day 120220928Bellaphantccgeek
Page 11Day 120220929evileeyoreCCGeek

* Page 3 Technically started on the 23rd, but the important posts didn't start until the 24th.


And in a different format in case this is how people prefer to read them:
Spoiler: End of IRL Day Vote Counts
Vote counts show the order in which the wagon was joined and left; but wagons are in vote count, then alphabetic order.

DAY 1 START, VOTE COUNT 1.00
Not Voting (9): Bellaphant, CCGeek, Corwinoid, evileeyore, HighPrincessErinys, Mr Turtle, Nektarios, nucleartemperature, Spartan117

With 9 alive, it's 5 to eliminate.

for Day 1 is October 1 at 5:00 PM EDT.
Timer: (expired on 2022-10-01 17:00:00)

T-10 END
20220921
Bellaphant (2): Nektarios, evileeyore
evileeyore (1): Bellaphant
HighPrincessErinys (1): CCGeek
SirRett (1): HighPrincessErinys
Spartan117 (1): Corwinoid

Not Voting (3): Mr Turtle, nucleartemperature (rep'ed by SirRhett), Spartan117

NOTE: T-10 was all Random Stage Voting.

T-9 END
20220922
SirRhett (3): HighPrincessErinys (RSV), Bellaphant, Corwinoid
Bellaphant (2): Nektarios, evileeyore
HighPrincessErinys (1): CCGeek
Mr Turtle (1): Spartan117 (RSV)
SirRett (1): HighPrincessErinys
Spartan117 (1): SirRhett (RSV)

Not Voting (1): Mr Turtle


T-8 END
20220923
SirRhett (3): HighPrincessErinys (RSV), Bellaphant, Corwinoid
Bellaphant (2): Nektarios, evileeyore
CCGeek (1): Mr Turtle
HighPrincessErinys (1): CCGeek
Mr Turtle (1): Spartan117 (RSV)
SirRett (1): HighPrincessErinys

Spartan117 (0): UNVOTE SirRhett (RSV)

Not Voting (1): SirRhett


T-7 END
20220924
Bellaphant (3): Nektarios, evileeyore, HighPrincessErinys
SirRhett (2): Bellaphant, Corwinoid, UNVOTE HighPrincessErinys (RSV)
CCGeek (1): Mr Turtle
HighPrincessErinys (1): CCGeek
Mr Turtle (1): Spartan117 (RSV)
Spartan117 (1): SirRhett

Not Voting (0):


T-6 VOTE COUNT 1.02
Bellaphant (3): Nektarios, evileeyore, HighPrincessErinys
CCGeek (2): Mr Turtle, Corwinoid
HighPrincessErinys (1): CCGeek
Spartan117 (1): SirRhett
Mr Turtle (1): Spartan117

Not Voting (1): BellaphanT

T-6 VOTE COUNT 1.03
CCGeek (3): Mr Turtle, Corwinoid, Spartan117
Bellaphant (2): Nektarios, HighPrincessErinys
Spartan117 (2): SirRhett, evileeyore
Corwinoid (1): CCGeek

Not Voting (1): Bellaphant

T-6 END
20220925
CCGeek (3): Mr Turtle, Corwinoid, Spartan117
Spartan117 (2): SirRhett, evileeyore
Bellaphant (1): Nektarios, MOVED VOTE evileeyore, UNVOTE HighPrincessErinys
Corwinoid (1): CCGeek

SirRhett (0): UNVOTE Bellaphant, MOVED VOTE Corwinoid
HighPrincessErinys (0): MOVED VOTE CCGeek
Mr Turtle (0): MOVED VOTE Spartan117 (RSV)

Not Voting (2): Bellaphant, HighPrincessErinys


T-5 VOTE COUNT 1.04
CCGeek (4): Corwinoid, Spartan117, Nektarios, HighPrincessErinys
Spartan117 (2): SirRhett, evileeyore
Corwinoid (1): CCGeek

Not Voting (2): Bellaphant, Mr Turtle

T-5 END
20220926
CCGeek (4): Corwinoid, Spartan117, Nektarios, UNVOTE Mr Turtle, HighPrincessErinys, Spartan117 (LOL Fake Vote)
Spartan117 (3): SirRhett, evileeyore, CCGeek

Corwinoid (0): MOVED VOTE CCGeek
Bellaphant (0): MOVED VOTE Nektarios

Not Voting (2): Bellaphant, Mr Turtle


T-4 VOTE COUNT 1.05
CCGeek (3): Corwinoid, Spartan117, HighPrincessErinys
Spartan117 (2): evileeyore, CCGeek
Mr Turtle (1): Bellaphant
Nektarios (1): SirRhett

Not Voting (2):Mr Turtle, Nektarios

T-4 END
20220927
CCGeek (4): Spartan117, HighPrincessErinys, UNVOTE Nektarios, MOVED VOTE Corwinoid, REVOTE Nektarios
Spartan117 (2): evileeyore, CCGeek, MOVED VOTE SirRhett
evileeyore (1): Corwinoid
Mr Turtle (1): Bellaphant
Nektarios(1): SirRhett

Corwinoid (0): MOVED VOTE CCGeek
Bellaphant (0): MOVED VOTE Nektarios

Not Voting (1): Mr Turtle


T-3 VOTE COUNT 1.06
CCGeek (3): Spartan117, HighPrincessErinys, Nektarios
Spartan117 (2): evileeyore, CCGeek
Mr Turtle (1): Bellaphant
Nektarios (1): SirRhett
evileeyore (1): Corwinoid

Not Voting (1): Mr Turtle

T-3 END
20220928
CCGeek (4): Spartan117, HighPrincessErinys, Nektarios, Bellaphant
Spartan117 (2): evileeyore, CCGeek
evileeyore (1): Corwinoid
Mr Turtle (1): MOVED VOTE Bellaphant
Nektarios(1): SirRhett

Not Voting (1): Mr Turtle


T-2 END
20220929
CCGeek (5): Spartan117, HighPrincessErinys, Nektarios, Bellaphant, evileeyore
Spartan117 (1): CCGeek, MOVED VOTE evileeyore
evileeyore (1): Corwinoid
Nektarios(1): SirRhett

Not Voting (1): Mr Turtle



Note: All the above "IRL days" and T-X is as per EST... it occurred to me after doing all this work that our actual Day end might not be predicated on EST timetables... and that goes for the next post as well.
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Post Post #325 (isolation #23) » Wed Oct 05, 2022 5:11 pm

Post by evileeyore »

Day 2 so far;
Spoiler: VOTE COUNT TABLE
Page 11Day 220221001
Page 12Day 220221004evileeyoreCorwinoid
Mr TurtleSirRhett
20221005BellaphantMr turtle


Spoiler: T- COUNT DOWN
DAY 2 START VOTE COUNT 2.00 20221001 1:28AM
Not Voting (7): Bellaphant, Corwinoid, evileeyore, Mr Turtle, Nektarios, SirRhett, Spartan117

With 7 alive, it's 4 to eliminate.

Deadline for Day 2 is October 8 at 1:30 AM EDT.

T-8 VOTE COUNT 2.01 20221004
Not Voting (7): Bellaphant, Corwinoid, evileeyore, Mr Turtle, Nektarios, SirRhett, Spartan117

T-8 END
20221004
Corwinoid (1): evileeyore
SirRhett (1): Mr Turtle

Not Voting (5): Bellaphant, Corwinoid, Nektarios, SirRhett, Spartan117


T-7 END
20221005
Corwinoid (1): evileeyore
SirRhett (1): Mr Turtle
Mr Turtle (1): Bellaphant

Not Voting (4): Corwinoid, Nektarios, SirRhett, Spartan117
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Post Post #326 (isolation #24) » Wed Oct 05, 2022 5:17 pm

Post by evileeyore »

P-Edit: Dang it! I keep thinking the page
ends
on 25...

Anyway... I just figured out that the Deadline Timer is actually updated every time you reload the page... nifty!
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Post Post #362 (isolation #25) » Thu Oct 06, 2022 1:54 am

Post by evileeyore »

In post 329, catboi wrote:
Corwinoid (1):
Corwinoid

SirRhett (1):
Mr Turtle
Mr Turtle (1):
Bellaphant]
@catboi

AHEM! Sir, I say ahem at thee. (The emphasized quote should be evileeyore, not Corwinoid. :wink: )


In post 331, Nektarios wrote:Ok, so here's what we know, if I understand things correctly: (Please correct me if I'm wrong, this part is largely me clarifying things as a newbie)
You're kinda correct. There is also a Mason play were the Masons will vote one-another early and give mild push when the wagon is low to give their partners a chance to "prove they are town", at which point they will jump to a better wagon.

Masons are a team, should play as a team, and be thought of as a team, but a lot of Masons will forget this (Neighborhoods as well, this isn't just Mason talk - it's theorywonk for any team), and that means giving subtle cred opportunities to each other as well as mild distancing. Day 2 or 3, when blocs start forming, that's when the mild distancing can cease and they can "more openly" act together.

In this case I see no evidence of coordinated action, so it looks like HPE and their partner went the distancing route, or the "mild support" route and might have been "townlean" reading each other.


In post 340, Mr Turtle wrote:I mean, if Rhett & I are scum allies, we have very little thread presence and thread control and we'd probably lose.
[THEORYWONKING]
Imagining a possible win for a scumteam formed from two of: you, Nekt, and SirRhett.

You missed a chance Day 1 to push on one of the three "Thread Charismatics", me, Corwinoid, and Spartan (face it, the three of us are the loudest, reasonablest, and pushiest of the thread). You also missed a Night 1 kill on us, that strongly (in my mind) leans towards there not being a team formed solely from you three (hence why I'm pretty sure there's an SE on TeamScum).

However, scumteam "Youse Guys" could still pull it off if you start eliminating us
now
, miselim Day 2, kill one Night 2, and manage a wagon on Day 3. That last one is way harder than it sounds, granted, but the other two are dead simple.
[/THEORYWONKING]

Now, the above theorywonk doesn't mean any vote for one the "Three Amibros" is a scumvote, clearly, I mean I'm voting Corwin and I'm town. :mrgreen:
In post 340, Mr Turtle wrote:But it's a weird question, because I assume scum team is determined by RNG and not who is more worthy.
That's a what I hear. I should probably go figure out what the random method is, it's been bugging me for a bit, it's just never a priority, and time is limited (and there is so much else I'm trying to read and figure out). I'll probably wait and ask catboi after the game is concluded (doing so now just feels... ehhhh, somehow.)


In post 352, Spartan117 wrote:But what if as the newb scum you are being highly town read by the SEs are you saying you would nk someone who's town reading you? Over someone who might push you day 2?
Not Mr Turtle, but I would. Between only those two options, yes, I'd NK someone who
lightly
townread me over someone who'd push me. Even if they're a hard push... I'm a scrapper. Fighting the push is what lights my candle.

But if it was between someone who was a driving force in Town (you, me, Corwinoid) who was towning me, over someone even heavily scumleaning me me? The dangerous people have to go first. Which is why I'm pretty sure it's either you or Corwinoid (or Bella - scary thought) driving the scumteam. Rando killing HPE just doesn't "feel" like a 'safe play" from a quiet position. Especially as all three of the remaining "newb lurkers" have been scumleaned by me, Bella, you, and Corwin to some degree, they aren't safe, today could turn hard against one of them at any moment.

I mean... if I'm wrong, it's a ballsy move by scumteam "Youse Guys". Definitely A-game material (and I never presume A-game plays, it's just not really human nature).


In post 355, Corwinoid wrote:@Spartan EINAI and is practically an IC post.
Flag on the play! Jargoning! -1 scum points!

So what's the 'EI'? The NAI is Not Alignment Indicating, but the EI is eluding me (even in context).
In post 356, Corwinoid wrote:There's no difference between killing them and a VT after the claim, they're not special without the partner confirmation.
The only thing special now is that they can be countered in elo.
Ahhhhh....

Wait. I need to think about this. Corwin has a strong point, but I need time to digest it, run some math, and think very hard about the implications.

This morning's posts have me confused about my feelings for senpai... but not enough to move my vote just yet.


In post 361, Spartan117 wrote:Im curious how many people today are in agreement and would agree with a Mason claim day 2?
I'm no longer completely against, but, Mason, please wait until I can run the math tonight (t-10 hrs from now) and make a more solid judgement. This post is being brought to you by 4 hours of sleep, half a liter of coffee, and spicy ramens brekkie, so... I have neither the time nor fully functioning thoughts to process Corwin's statement completely.
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Post Post #380 (isolation #26) » Thu Oct 06, 2022 2:05 pm

Post by evileeyore »

In post 365, Spartan117 wrote:I get what you are saying I just don't feel as newbscum to elim the SE first is direction to go in, unless pressure was put on said scum by said town SE.
That would put HPE's last FoS on Nektarios as the most glaring thing to consider.

For the record, HPE put "mild" pressure on Bellaphant, evileeyore, and then went semi-hard at Nektarios (while voting CCG for his "scum flailing").
In post 365, Spartan117 wrote:... unless I am mistaken I don't believe HPE had a wagon or any real significant amount of pressure on their slot....
You're correct. HPE was widely "townread", if only because there was no pressure applied to them at all. Which is why I figure they were offed, blandly unanimously town who's NK gives minimal to no info.
In post 365, Spartan117 wrote:Additionally @EE would it not have made more sense for my slot to NK your slot with our interactions Day 1?
Yes, exactly. But I'd already townleaned you as I dropped the Hammer on CCG. You could be playing a tight scum game, keep alive the one person who went hard on you and walked away feeling you were town, but I'm still getting Townvibes from you.
In post 365, Spartan117 wrote:I certainly found you very hard to read, I am gaining more of a sense of your style now. Albeit im sure this boppedy boopedy chaotic stype is how you are town or scum.
It's what I call a "styleless style". Like Bella's "gentle questioning" approach, naked aggression and energy becomes hard to pin down and works for either role. But in the past I've found it does lead to being eliminated/killed in the mid-game.

But I enjoy it and that's what the game is about for me, having fun.


In post 368, Bellaphant wrote:Wagon analysis is a really useful tool, especially in a newbie.
Which is where I'm feeling a strong Nektarios scumvibe. That and upon reread, a lot of people are seeing Rolefishing and other stuff so...

It's time to VOTE: Nektarios and hope I'm right.


In post 373, Spartan117 wrote:Any chance on an advance on this before I have to go to bed :D , I keep feeling like im missing out on engaging with everyone when I am online :(
I hope this is early enough†:

Mason: Corwinoid is correct. If we miselim today, tomorrow is ELo* and at that point a townleaned scum could pull off a fakeclaim and scumteam could walk away with a day win. So, please claim today.



*
Eliminate-or-Lose, we'd be 3 town versus 2 scum, if the Mason claims today, the Mason
will
be eliminated tonight, but then town will be eliminated tonight regardless. However we avoid the ELo scum fakeclaim situation. That's what my "finally got some sleep" math is telling me now. In fact... if my thoughts are correct, ELo-1 is when Masons should simply claim
even if both are still alive
. Corwin, check my thinking: ELo-1, both Masons claim, one will be NKed, but, even with a miselim that day, that puts it at 1+2v2 on ELo better evening the odds for Town by removing the fakeclaim
and
having a conftown. Does that parse?

I mean it's no "easy Town" win, but it weights it slightly in town's favor. I'm beginning to feel that Masonteam is both a subtle Townbloc and a sacrifice team, if that makes sense (as in, Day 2 or 3, they sacrifice themselves to pave an easier path to Town victory).

I got no sleep again last night so I crashed out as soon as I got home from work. 2 hour nap later and my brain feels slightly better. At least my job is pretty dead right now, I have another week to get the insomnia under control before AEP kicks off (Annual Enrollment Period, Medicare season baby! The next two months are gonna be wallet fattening).
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Post Post #382 (isolation #27) » Thu Oct 06, 2022 4:09 pm

Post by evileeyore »

In post 369, Bellaphant wrote:Could we have reads lists from everyone?
Town:

Mr Turtle, Spartan117
- Both feel like they've had fairly consistent town game, neither has tripped my scumdar in anyway.

Corwinoid
- Mostly unreadable, but has had several strong Town plays lately (as well as one scum feel play late Day 1).
Danger Zone:

Bellaphant, SirRhett
- Largely unreadable. Active Lurking/Lurking?

Mafia:

Nektarios
- Zero Town feels, several scum plays (Active Lurking, Role Fishing, rubber-Bandwagoning). COULD BE NEWBTOWN MAKING SIMPLE MISTAKES JUST LIKE CCG


HOWEVER...

(the following could very well be coincidence, and I try to ignore it... but after a full reread of the thread and long look at the vote record over dinner...

I'm getting some weird 'feels' off of Bella: She is feeling more and more like active lurking than townplaying. We got to page 7 with her Intent to Hammer
without her ever giving a strong read on others
(except to offhand townread SirRhett over what I'm not getting any feels from - I was getting light Bella-SirRhett partner vibes Day 1, I think it was from post 70 and post 143 the "panicked" retraction to post 134). It's all soft reads "oh, we SEs have played together, I can read them townish" or "[Player] is feelign better after that" and also mildly tossing around shade. Meanwhile mildly pushing Mr Turtle for simply getting off a wagon he wasn't ready to see hammered... a wagon that flipped Green. Indeed, at this point Bella has only asked questions and run a tight Active Lurking game.

I think Bella needs to feel the pressure today; as much as I hate vote-jumping like this:
VOTE: Bellaphant


I'm also getting "similar" motive vibes from Bella and Spartan's plays. They've both pressured only the newbs, they've both left Corwin alone†, they've both left me alone (or applied pressure and then moved on almost immediately). It's probably pure coincidence, but a Bella-Spartan scum team with a good Townface could run the game this way hoping to coast on Corwin (and others) misreading them into ELo. (For that matter, Corwin-Other SE could be doing the same, but I'm not getting the same "playing the same game" vibes from a Corwin-Bella or Corwin-Spartan hypothetical).

† Which is far less suspicious than the lack of strong pressure on me from them. I know, I know, "lack of pressuring" is hardly scummy...
but...



In post 375, catboi wrote:
SirRhett (2):
Mr Turtle, Spartan117
Corwinoid (1):
Corwinoid

Mr Turtle (1):
Bellaphant
Spartan117 (1):
Nektarios

Not Voting
(2)
:
evileeyore
, SirRhett
AHEM! Again I ahem at thee (and fired a PM), everything enlargenated was inaccurate.

Completely unofficial current Vote Count:
SirRhett (2): Mr Turtle, Spartan117
Mr Turtle (1) Bellaphant
Bellaphant (1): evileeyore

Not Voting (3): Corwinoid, Nektarios, SirRhett
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Post Post #389 (isolation #28) » Fri Oct 07, 2022 1:53 am

Post by evileeyore »

In post 384, Nektarios wrote:Alrighty, several interruptions later... I've finally finished the analysis I started just before EE hammered Geek...
That's definitely an argument. I'm feeling like it has potential and legs, but, explain your On, Off, On again with CCG. That's what partially fueled my pushback on Corwin and the second half of my scumread on you.


In post 387, Bellaphant wrote:Aha, the 'bella is unreadable' vibe. This has been said a fair bit recently, but I think it's because I think my reads are really obvious and everyone should be able to pick up the flow Ans the tone changes and.... Nope.
And from a overall gameplay perspective, that's good! But from a "Bella is mosdef Town" perspective, it's bad. Your soft reads don't stand out as being reads, they stand out as being commentary, which could be easily walked back or just ignored with a shift in the wind play. Maybe try to firm that up with a solid set of reads for us today?
In post 388, Bellaphant wrote:I mean, the vote, unvote, vote is still weird though .
And I don't like my own "vote Corwin, no vote Nekt, no vote Bella" start to Day 2 either. And it's me doing it!
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Post Post #412 (isolation #29) » Fri Oct 07, 2022 11:49 am

Post by evileeyore »

In post 396, Mr Turtle wrote:
I hard-claim Mason.
I THOUGHT SO!

It was either you* or Bella* and I really wanted it to be you! Oh yeah! /fistpump

* You two were the only ones that felt like you were 'flying casually' in regards to HPE, and Bella just feels like she's flying casually with everyone.

My Current reads:
Town

Mr Turtle
- While he lurks, (almost) every post feels like it's doing something and the leaving an early E-1 wagon felt pure Town.
Spartan117
- Spartan's game feels very consistent (which is not at all Alignment Indicative), but his defense against my aggressive pushing on him (and the SEs) felt very Town motivated.

Town Adjacent

Corwinoid
- Mostly unreadable, had several strong Townish plays D1 - as well as
one
scum feel play late Day 1. Early Day 2 strong return to Townplays.

Danger Zone:

Nektarios
- Several scum plays (Active Lurking, Role Fishing, rubber-Bandwagoning). Day 2 Face-Heel Turn. BUSY/SCATTERED NEWBTOWN MAKING MISTAKES?
Bellaphant
- Active Lurking? Soft fluid reads.
SirRhett
- Largely unreadable. Lurking. Soft plays.

Mafia:

Possibly Bella with SirRhett as a partner.



@Mr. Turtle, @Spartan, explain why I should jump wagons and help save catboi some paperwork?


In post 397, Bellaphant wrote:VOTE: corwin
A naked vote? On Day 2? I know you just said you feel Corwin is more 'scummy", but
why
do you feel that way?
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Post Post #417 (isolation #30) » Fri Oct 07, 2022 4:29 pm

Post by evileeyore »

In post 415, Corwinoid wrote:You shouldn't. Until Rhett is back or replaced nobody should be bringing a wagon within a double vote of elim
Is this a subtle culture thing? I've read the rules and the wiki and I'm seeing nothing implicitly or explicitly stating that we, the Players, cannot continue forward with what may be foregone conclusions (ie, continuing a wagon - after all, if we really started hard it yesterday it could have come to a conclusion before the timer ran out, but during the window that SirRhett was missing).

I'm also not seeing anything stating that discussing the potential rep-in is Out Of Game or outre, but then there's been over a decade of cultural build-up that might not be actually stated anywhere, so inform me if I'm wrong there as well.
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Post Post #420 (isolation #31) » Fri Oct 07, 2022 9:13 pm

Post by evileeyore »

In post 418, Corwinoid wrote:It's a strategy thing, scum can take a bullet tomorrow to get an easy elim today, and
usually
you don't elim or push a slot that's currently not filled incase the incoming player has really good reads and can give really good play. Bella and I made that exact play in our last game, and the incoming player basically won the game for town with a really strong defense against their elim. On the town side, it's just less info, which is never pro-town.
Okay, I can see that.

I'd still like to get Mr. Turtle and Spartan to paint their SirRhett picture, because that also informs on them. I know the new fill in is different person, so they'll play different... but it'll still be Turtle and Spartan here.


Mr Turtle already explained their SirRhett vote in 298, so that's cleared up just fine.
And Spartan gave his reasoning in 366 so that settles both of those. (I just did a quick ISO scan of both in case they'd both already explained their reasoning and I'd forgotten... which was the case.)
It's kind of socially taboo to discuss a replacement if you think the cause of the replacement is game breaking OGI also.
I don't think that's the case here. Pretty sure SriRhett has just been MIA for three days.
As the player behind the keyboard I'm generally against discussing replacements in game and try my best to treat the position with some kind of continuity, but that's a personal decision.
See to me that's just weird because the next Player
will
play different, and that shift in style won;t necessarily be revealing. Also, I meant any rules against discussing who we think will be coming in? (Though if there is... and I'm right about who, there's no harm in deep diving them for meta profiling now rather than later... I really wish I had internet from work, the next two days are gonna be hellishly slow and I could put those hours to good use grinding old games.)
In post 419, Corwinoid wrote:I'm strongly leaning Bella/Nek right now, but I'm holding out for the replacement to say something.
Interesting because I've had vague "Bella-SirRhett" vibes since mid-Day 1. Just a "flying too casually" thing though so I'm not putting too much weight in it.
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Post Post #426 (isolation #32) » Sat Oct 08, 2022 4:08 am

Post by evileeyore »

In post 423, Nektarios wrote:Perhaps I’ve viewed things too myopically in light of spartan/corwin theory (or maybe I’m wrong about spartan and EE is his scum buddy?)
Right, Corwinoid, I'm with you, pretty sure it's Bella-Nekt after this post.

No, no, I can see what you're saying Nekt, and if I were scum, being the only one who has been openly against scumbus* plays and talked about how teams should play (albeit for Masons ), I can see how that could be a smart scum play. But I drove the Spartan bus hard and was prepared to eliminate if we got those votes.

* I honesty think scumbusing is the stupidest thing to do and would never advocate for it in a scum PT. I mean I'd do it, if it was the best play, but to me it's a desperation tactic to weaken your team to save
yourself
. I'd rather go under the bus than be on it. Only way I'd go on it is if my scumpartner slipped hard and was gettign wagoned over it, I didn't think I could make another play, and they asked me bus them for the good of the team. I can see a meatshield play for town when Town is numerous enough to afford a few miselims, but scum are almost never in the position where they can afford to lose a member.
Personally I still think looking at how the killing of Geek went down makes the most sense right now, which means corwin or spartan, with a FoS at EE.
This feels so very well crafted. Kudos!


In post 424, Corwinoid wrote:My read reversed on Turtle, and I gave the exact reason. And I was right.
My read on Mr Turtle went from null to hard town when he jumped off Bella's wagon. That was pure Town to me.

In a game where everyone is experienced? That might vibe different though.
In post 421, Corwinoid wrote:scum!Rhett
Okay, this has been mildly buggin me for a bit as well, what is the exclamation point doing as an operator in that equation? It's clearly not playing a "does not equal" role... is it just emphasis?
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Post Post #443 (isolation #33) » Sat Oct 08, 2022 3:38 pm

Post by evileeyore »

In post 427, Nektarios wrote:Right, EE, being willing to look at things critically is scummy?
No, of course not. It's the conclusions you're shaping from the examination that feels like you're edging SirRhett out of the "mosdef scumteam" position.

In other words: You're flailing and there aren't even any votes on you. And this doesn't feel like a "nubtownie flail".


In post 429, MightyCannon wrote:hello guys I am here to save this game ig right off the bat
Thank ZOD! I've been trying to save this game from over-analysis and boredom single-handedly!

Oh, you meant save Town from scum using analysis... errr...
I probably won't be able to read more today since I have work to do and such won't really make a post today
That's okay, you've got like just under 48 hours before we decide to vote someone out. No pressure at all. :wink:


In post 431, Bellaphant wrote:Sorry ee, I don't understand your post at all?
I don't know how I can help you?


In post 434, Corwinoid wrote:I can't quote on my phone right now for some reason, but the align!player is referring to a player as a hypothetical alignment or role.
In post 435, Mr Turtle wrote:It's usually used to emphasize a hypothetical world where the player is given the alignment before the exclamation mark.
Thanks! So not emphasis at all, but theoryposting. Cool.


In post 438, Spartan117 wrote:Yes I definitly take the "lead on this narrative and run with it" which is why I make several attempts to tease out reactions from Geek that could provide a town response for me to read from him to see if there would be any doubts in my read on their slot.
To be crystal clear, when I reread you and Corwin's pressure on CCGeek a few days into Day 2 I saw where you both were subtly (and in few spots not so subtly) trying to steer him into townposting, but he kept flailing, so I can understand where you both kept thinking he was deliberating trying to go under, or making some weird scumplay.
In post 438, Spartan117 wrote:I make a fake hammer post - clearly on purpose
Seeing as how Corwin misread an E-1 vote as a hammer a few days later, maybe come to accept it wasn't exactly "clearly a fake hammer post" to everyone seeing it.

At this point however, yeah, pointing at as a "scumtell" feels... like grasping for evidence to fit a conclusion.
In post 438, Spartan117 wrote:Going back through the events of peoples past games to make a point about whether to eliminate someone may have been a joke but
it wasnt RVS
...
No, no it wasn't. I'm gonna draw back the curtain a little bit... at that point I was hunting for a reason to jump off Bella (who was feeling null-to-townish) and put pressure on you or Corwin.
Your
meta-numbers fit very well into an absolute bs correlation rationale* of "eliminate Spartan Day 1 for the good of town" as well as being great "piss off Spartan" bait. Because from what I've seen of your prior games, get you frustrated enough and you go hard, and that hard is slightly different when you're town, or at least in your two more recent games (which coincidentally were both town), your anger had a different flavor.

And you did, and I said "okay, this feels like a pure town Spartan who has just tunneled on CCGeek", and like... my defense of CCGeek wasn't clicking... and someone has to go and I didn't have anything to push hard on anyone else with... /shrug

* I mean, it wasn't a "bs" correlative deduction, it was however a bs rationale to eliminate over. Which you slapped back on.



@catboi

I has question: Okay, so reading the rules of the game, it looks to me like if we don't get four people together to vote one person, we aren't using plurality voting, so there would be no Day Elimination in that case? Right?


@ Mr Turtle, Spartan, Corwinoid
If this is the case, how about a bloc? I'm happy to give MightyCannon his (just under) 48 hours to give their input, but I think it's best we have our collective shit together and be prepared to do some voting at the end of Day 2.

I'm also more than willing to listen to discussion on the ramifications of a No Elimination today? I don't think it's a "good" play, but I'm willing to hear how I'm wrong.

Frex: If we miselim or No Vote today, we're in ELo on Day 3, we'll just have 3 choices instead of 2. Where as even if we miselim today,
if I'm right
and Team Town is comprised of Corwinoid, evileeyore, Mr Turtle, and Spartan117, we'll have very easy choices the next two Days.
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Post Post #444 (isolation #34) » Sat Oct 08, 2022 3:42 pm

Post by evileeyore »

Note, where I write "SirRhett" above, I'm referring to "prior to MightyCannon". I'm all for giving MC their shot.
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Post Post #457 (isolation #35) » Sun Oct 09, 2022 1:31 pm

Post by evileeyore »

In post 456, Bellaphant wrote:You can just quote the post numbers, unless you want to dig into the posts
MC is on mobile and this place has no mobile skin (and if their UI is as shitty as mine, they have all my sympathies).
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Post Post #465 (isolation #36) » Mon Oct 10, 2022 2:12 am

Post by evileeyore »

In post 461, Corwinoid wrote:I'm still at the same place {Bella, Nek, MC/Rhett}.
Agreed. I like MC's hustle so far, but I'm afraid they are trying to climb out of a well their predecessor dug a little too deeply.

I'm giving everyone (but primarily Mr Turtle
and Spartan117
*) 13 hours to say something else before I drop the hammer. Yes, consider this intent to Hammer T-13hrs (if I think I can finesse it to a closer-to-the-deadline mark to squeeze a leetle more time for people to argue I will, but I'm not sure I'll have the gas in the tank that late tonight).


* On Preview I see Spartan did say something more, which I agree with.
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Post Post #468 (isolation #37) » Mon Oct 10, 2022 3:13 am

Post by evileeyore »

Phone-post, don't tell corporate, Mr Turtle:. Who would be your vote tomorrow?

Pretty sure you're going to be the NK, so weight my choice on tomorrow's elim.
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Post Post #473 (isolation #38) » Mon Oct 10, 2022 9:58 am

Post by evileeyore »

In post 466, Corwinoid wrote:It's only -2, but I think that's okay if someone else is on before then also.
Right, I missed Mr Turtle's unvote.

Current Unofficial Vote Count at
T-8 hours
:

MightyCannon (2): Spartan117, Corwinoid
Bellaphant (1): evileeyore
Corwinoid (1): Bellaphant
Nektarios (1): Mighty Cannon
Spartan117 (1): Nektarios

@Bellaphant: Pitch me why Corwinoid is your vote, in case I'm being snowed over here.
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Post Post #484 (isolation #39) » Mon Oct 10, 2022 3:35 pm

Post by evileeyore »

Three to go, Spartan, Corwin (if you get back in here in the next two hours), it might be worth joining MC's Nektarios wagon because I don't think we're going to get TeamScum onto the MC wagon, and Mr Turtle appears to be a no show late day.

With a no elim today, that means TeamScum would only need to convince one errant Townie to join them and Town is screwed tomorrow (if we're late getting a wagon going). (I think it's 3 to elim with 6 alive? If it's 4, Town is even more screwed as I don't see us pulling enough votes to avoid a slow NK bleed out.)

For the record, none of Bellaphant or Nektarios' rationales have swayed me from reading Spartan117 as hard Town or Corwinoid as "very. very" Town adjacent. In fact Nekt's arguments just keep sliding him further into the Red for me. Bella is still 'yellow/danger', her rationales aren't persuading, but they aren't what I'd call scumsided.

MC hasn't posted anything I haven't thought myself, and they're not as prolific as I'd hoped.

Mr Turtle... I really hope you post within the next two hours.
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Post Post #485 (isolation #40) » Mon Oct 10, 2022 3:58 pm

Post by evileeyore »

"Three to go" should be "With only three votes on MC" considering my "Intent to Hammer MC" in two hours.
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Post Post #496 (isolation #41) » Wed Oct 12, 2022 6:27 pm

Post by evileeyore »

In post 495, catboi wrote:
With 7 alive, it's 4 to eliminate.
5 and 3, right boss?



Oh wow... I think TeamMafia have made their second mistake. First voting off MC, now killing a low impact, about to be repped out slot - sure, Mr Turtle was confTown, but that only meant 1 less person for Town to sort, not that they'd have been adding anything meaningful... unlike NK'ing a more
dangerous
slot.
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Post Post #500 (isolation #42) » Thu Oct 13, 2022 12:39 am

Post by evileeyore »

In post 497, Corwinoid wrote:Yeah, I was hoping I'd wake up dead, but I guess leaving the conftown alive going into elo is too high risk. It's also pretty low info.
Yeaaaaaah... the moment I hit send i started grtting Sicilian arguments rolling in.
I'll re-read everyone alive tomorrow night...
I have too much WIFOM everytime I try to figure out who could be scum... so I need to do a thorough reread of Bellaphant, Corwinoid, and Spartan117's prior history... and reexamine Nektarios in this game.

But in case someone mistakenly votes and we get scumrushed before I can finish that... I'm feeling Spartan maybe, could, possibly,
might
be Mafia. I don;t remember him being this 110% sure in his one long Town game and I need to refresh on his Red role games.
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Post Post #508 (isolation #43) » Thu Oct 13, 2022 7:08 pm

Post by evileeyore »

In post 507, Corwinoid wrote:Speaking of which... @EE, why *weren't* you on that wagon?
My alarm was set for T-minus one hour, but someone just couldn't wait to make sure the wagon rolled out.

Not 100% sure I'd have been on it though at the end. I kept staring at the two names on the wagon, and how those two names had also lead the run on CCGeek the day before.

But I woke up to find the thread locked and that conundrum removed from consideration. I started my reread of you, Bella, and Spartan's previous threads, but I'm taking my time. We have 6 days after all.
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Post Post #517 (isolation #44) » Fri Oct 14, 2022 10:37 am

Post by evileeyore »

In post 511, Nektarios wrote:... I didn’t know if EE was going to show up in the
last 15
.
Ahem:
In post 475, catboi wrote:Deadline for Day 2 is October 11 at
1:30 AM EDT
.
"last 15"? Hyperbole or an attempt to reframe to fit a narrative?
In post 484, evileeyore wrote:Mr Turtle... I really hope you post within the next two hours.
That was just under two hours before you posted (it was at 10:35 EDT). I posted from work, and several times that night, indeed my most prolific day here (I posted 5 times that day when I average 2.3 posts/day).

But sure I'll be generous and presume you are being completely accurate and were worried we wouldn't be able to miselim that day.


In post 510, Bellaphant wrote:This feels like paranoia but for someone who says always be culling, ee is really absent from the two end wagons (has the hammer and then not on the second). Like, that's not driving a wagon.
Two things:

1 - Please expalin how being the Hammer is also "being absent".
2 - Read msg #508. In case you misunderstood it: "My alarm was set for T-minus one hour" and "I woke up finding the thread locked" are part of the same information set.

3 - Yes, I'm going to three, "Always Be Culling" doesn't require I
drive
wagons. It means I'll almost always have a vote down, I'll rarely if ever not have a vote placed, I don't "unvote" just for unvoting sake, and I'm always ready to hammer (because sometimes it's just the only way to nail Mafia). The only reason I'm not placing a vote
right now
, is if I'm wrong, a coordinated scumteam could rush the wagon before I could revote.

But, no lie, the idea of naked voting and then thread camping in the hopes I could catch scum voting and get a post in between them is really tempting. Or, if they failed to wagon rush in say, 12 hours, know that I'd identified one member of scumteam.

Really tempting...


It's a ballsy move and I saw it pay off once. Once.
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Post Post #522 (isolation #45) » Sat Oct 15, 2022 1:30 am

Post by evileeyore »

Coming back to these two because I both have a few minutes this morning my redive on Bella, Corwin, and Spartan's past games is slow going (reading over twenty longish games and trying to build profiles):
In post 501, Spartan117 wrote:Not sure what the reference is to the first part of your post, as far as re-reading me to sure up your read go ahead, with a smaller sample size of players its easier for everyone to be doing that.
I had said along the lines of "Killing Turtle was a weaker play than killing one of me, Corwin, or Spartan", Corwin responded "Yeah, I was surprised to not wake up dead but..." and he had a strong point that Turtle was also a
safe
scum kill.

My response: "the moment I hit send i started grtting Sicilian arguments rolling in" was a 'as soon as I hit send, I started finding all these arguments in my own head as to why killing Turtle was a good scum play', therefore, Turtle's NK isn't necessarily going to help solve for scum. (Basically during the Night I spent my "away-from-thread" time lightly rereading the SE's old games and thinking very hard about what it could mean if someone other than Turtle died and I got a bit tunneled on it such that Turtle dying was surprising).

WIFOM: Wine In Front Of Me is from Vizzini's infamously tortured logic argument with The Man In Black in
The Princess Bride
. Vizzini was Sicilian, so I've always called it the Sicilian Defense when I use or see similar argument tactics or if I get decision paralysis over too much of what this place calls "WIFOM".
Also as far as being 110% of anything, I'm not...
But yet you drove both CCGeek and Mighty Cannon's wagons as though you were.

Which is your current meta
1
, so it's not like it's alignment indicative.

1 - this game and your last two games, this was your playstyle, which is a strong switch in style from previous games. Even being 100% wrong about who you were deeply scumreading is perfectly Town as per your new meta, so it's NAI (for everyone else's knowledge, both of Spartan's last two games he drove hard like he has here, on both games he was Town, in one game he spotted scum day one and pushed them hard all game, in the other he misread a Townie as scum and pushed them hard. So it's a wash - I still need to comb through his Mafia PTs to finish my profile, though so... this thought isn't finished at all).
In post 501, Spartan117 wrote:Bellas stance this game has been weird...
That's been my feel since Day 2, but I want to deeply reread Bella's last ten games (and her Mafia PT's fromt hose games) before feeling any more sure on that.

Nekt's plays have also felt scumish to me, but, then, that's exactly how CCG felt to you, and we can see how that turned out (and Nekt's plays could just be putting me off, which is why I haven't voted on him, just pushed).

In post 502, Spartan117 wrote:Also EE, it strikes me a little concerning how we are into the last 5 and we have all 3 SEs and EE who was pushing SEs days 1, is there anyway this could be a Corwin/EE or Bella/EE scum team? or am I just being paranoid, probably.
My Day 1 was 100% pure "RSV/bullshit" as I had nothing strong to go on and I decided to push you very, very hard after abandoning my "Kill the SEs because Math Can't Lie" nonsense. Basically they were both (as I've said a few times now) Correlation Is Causation arguments to add fake weight to my arguments and pressure, which both Corwin and Bella ignored (that's my impression anyway), but you started to bite at, so... I chose you to 'tunnel' in on and we fought. Your responses and fight level are what gave me my Town read on you.
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Post Post #523 (isolation #46) » Sat Oct 15, 2022 2:17 am

Post by evileeyore »

In post 521, Bellaphant wrote:1. Is the hammer driving a wagon?
So... "not driving is equal to being absent"? That's a weird argument, even you have to realize this.

Then, in that case, yes Bella, I was absent from both wagons, one of which I was heavily Town reading and arguing that they were Town (which is NAI) and the other I was waiting on a confTown player to make some responses on before hammering, because as I argued then, Mighty Cannon was sounding townish in comparison to the previous slot-holder (not exactly a high bar to hurdle).
In post 521, Bellaphant wrote:2.. I understand that. I'm not doubting if that's true, but again, see point one.
Which is a rather odd stance. "If you're not driving the wagon, you're not on the wagon." - Bellaphant, 2022
In post 521, Bellaphant wrote:3. Why not? Genuinely, having a vote somewhere is very in everyone's scum range, I don't see the benefit?
Because, as I mentioned Day 2 (I think it was Day 2): Town has one job,
eliminate Mafia
. You cannot eliminate Mafia if you aren't voting
and
eliminating. Being on a miselim wagon is not alignment indicating in itself, neither is driving a miselim wagon - when there is evidence to support the wagon. However, consistently being on miselim wagons can be evidence of scum behavior (either as a passive passenger, hammerer, or driver). "Current meta" holds that certain spots are more or less indicative, but I argue those are hogwash
1
, arguments created by scumteams to confuse the issue.

1 Or rather, those arguments need to be considered in the light of "these arguments can be wrong because
meta is manipulable
". Good scumplayers will keep their finger on the pulse of the current meta and play accordingly to fall into "townlean ranges", but then also, town will naturally fall into those ranges as well. Meta should not be the foundation upon which you build an argument. Meta arguments can quickly become WIFOM bait.


Because both wagons had the currently living players on them (if we count Day 1 Corwin's pushing of CCG after leaving as "being on the wagon" and my Intent which was claim-jumped by nervous Nekt) that's not exactly strong evidence for a "ooooh, if you were (or weren't) on both wagons you must be scum" argument. I mean, sure, try to drive a wagon on it, but know now, I'm calling it even shakier reasoning than
my
Day 1 nonsense.
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Post Post #532 (isolation #47) » Sat Oct 15, 2022 2:43 pm

Post by evileeyore »

In post 524, Bellaphant wrote:Does anyone else see my issue with the above or is it's me not communicating issue,?
Okay, to restate, you're saying that because I wasn't driving the wagon, I was "really absent" from the wagons, and despite actually hammering and posting an Intent to Hammer, I also somehow wasn't living up to my "ABC motto" and this is all somehow... something?

Extremely vague aspersion there Bellaphant, just sayin.

In post 528, Corwinoid wrote:I'm willing to lose the game on bella/ee and vote nek on 525 alone. Spartan?
There's that hint of scum peeking out,
Here's where I strongly disagree with you, again. 525
1
was one of the few posts Nekt has made that's felt genuine.

1 Specifically this line: "I had no positive town reads, but I haven't figured out what a positively pro-town comment would look like. I've just been hunting what looks scummy or as collusion in hindsight once we have real facts, and see town by process of elimination." It feels very genuine. It's not what I'd call 'good scumhunting'
2
methods, but genuine.

2 It's WIFOM territory. Any "tell" like that can inherently be copied by scum. You can't look for comments, you have to track patterns and look for what violates the pattern, or if the player has a really "off" set of of patterns. Especially when at least one scum is clearly located among the experienced players.



What's catching my eye today in thread is Corwin in 528 again calling out Spartan to join him on forming a bloc, just without calling it out as a bloc this time.

After my profiles are built I need to reread the thread and see when people formed their opinions, who followed who on reads, and if any patterns pop out.
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Post Post #536 (isolation #48) » Sat Oct 15, 2022 6:44 pm

Post by evileeyore »

Reveiwing our reads we've made over the game:

evileeyore

Spartan117 - Town who read wrong but pushed hard.
Mr Turtle - Town lurker.

Bella - Questioning, soft digging, posting 110% in style - DANGER CANNOT READ.
Sir Rhett - Too much lurksliding, not enough hard substance posting.

Nektarios - sus - too much insubstantial posting, jumped onto the wagon to bring it back into hammer range for evile and Bella, hard FoSed by HPE.
Corwinoid - Scum. Started the wagon, jumped off the moment it became a clear shoo-in but continued pushing for it despite a seeming "intent to wagon evileeyore".

----

Mr Turtle, Spartan117 - Both feel like they've had fairly consistent town game, neither has tripped my scumdar in anyway.

Corwinoid - Mostly unreadable, but has had several strong Town plays lately (as well as one scum feel play late Day 1).
Danger Zone:
Bellaphant, SirRhett - Largely unreadable. Active Lurking/Lurking?

Mafia:
Nektarios - Zero Town feels, several scum plays (Active Lurking, Role Fishing, rubber-Bandwagoning). COULD BE NEWBTOWN MAKING SIMPLE MISTAKES JUST LIKE CCG

---
All my above reads are prior to Mr Turtle's Mason claim. The following was after:

Mr Turtle - While he lurks, (almost) every post feels like it's doing something and the leaving an early E-1 wagon felt pure Town.
Spartan117 - Spartan's game feels very consistent (which is not at all Alignment Indicative), but his defense against my aggressive pushing on him (and the SEs) felt very Town motivated.

Town Adjacent
Corwinoid - Mostly unreadable, had several strong Townish plays D1 - as well as one scum feel play late Day 1. Early Day 2 strong return to Townplays.

Danger Zone:
Nektarios - Several scum plays (Active Lurking, Role Fishing, rubber-Bandwagoning). Day 2 Face-Heel Turn. BUSY/SCATTERED NEWBTOWN MAKING MISTAKES?
Bellaphant - Active Lurking? Soft fluid reads.
SirRhett - Largely unreadable. Lurking. Soft plays.

Mafia:
Possibly Bella with SirRhett as a partner.



Nektarios

Likely Town:
- SirRhett
- Bella (mostly)

Middle or unknown read:
- MrTurtle (but seeing mostly circumstantial scenarios where he is scum)
- Evileeyore (maybe middle leaning town)

Scum reads:
- Spartan
- Corwinoid




Spartan117

Conf town
MrTurtle

Town reads
Corwin
EE

Unsure how to read currently
Bella

Scum pool
Nek
Sir Rhett




Bella

I still have no firm grasp of her posts.

I think Bellaphant is still strongly reading Corwinoid as scum, Spartan is "in the middle", Nekt as town, and maybe I'm still town?

This is why Bella is still in my "danger zone", I think we're having a funidmental linguistic disparity.




Corwinoid

Post 419, steals Spartan's reads and swaps his spot in Spartan's list for Spartan in his:
Conf town
MrTurtle

Town reads
Spartan
EE

Unsure how to read currently
Bella

Scum pool
Nek
Sir Rhett




Post reread of thread: I'm wondering now if my last line in 443 isn't why I'm still alive in Day 3 (nah, Mr Turtle was the safe NK).

Also, just saying it now, I won't finish my profiles of anyone but Spartan117 (just no time, working 12 hour shifts Sat and Sun), but so far it's shaping up to only reinforce my initial read of him as Town, just town who has made a few bad reads this game.

I really wish I'd have chosen to start with Bella or Corwin, especially Corwin right now as I'm getting that "Corwin is scum" feel I had late Day 1 again. If I had time to deep read Corwinoid's prior games I'd feel a lot bettter about making a ballsy play come Monday.


Final thoughts on this before I let Sunday simmer on it: I can understand one experienced player making some bad reads and driving over them, I'm having a very hard time believing two experienced players made the
exact same errors
. One is likely town, the other scum riding town reads, pushes, and wagons as camouflage.
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Post Post #537 (isolation #49) » Sat Oct 15, 2022 6:56 pm

Post by evileeyore »

Sorry, actual real final thoughts for tonight (I thought this was quoted into the above post, but here it is orphaned on it's own in the cold):
In post 533, Corwinoid wrote:This is exactly what's scummy, and you not seeing that is really really awkward here.

He's literally admitting a disassociate from town solving and the ONLY motivation for that is being informed.
Nektarios is a 'no prior' games* newb. You can't expect every newb to show up with
good
solving techniques.

Hell, for what its worth his technique has so far been as successful as
yours and Spartan's
.

Or, maybe he's been spot on and is just seeing things I'm missing since I'm looking at different things... I never use ISO to get reads for instance as I don't see that as being useful - no one
posts
in isolation, why
read
them out of context that way? (ISO is great for hunting down which posts said what, but I still go reread them in context of what was going on in the thread when they were made).


* He self claimed as having played a few games a decade ago. IIRC, like 3 games. I'm willing to call that "no prior games" and extend some hefty "is going to have bad tactics" cred.
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Post Post #540 (isolation #50) » Sun Oct 16, 2022 1:35 am

Post by evileeyore »

In post 538, Bellaphant wrote:I don't think that's 100% true, ee, about solving: I find it particularly weird that Nek isn't finding town.
"Not finding town"? Bella, he's consistently townread
you
. Is this some sort of subtle admission he's been wrong on that read all game?
In post 538, Bellaphant wrote:Just from the numbers, finding town should be easier and more optimal. Scum are looking for scummy things to push.
If they are doing that, they are doing a bad job (or you're saying this in a weird way).
In post 538, Bellaphant wrote:Scum need to be moving Day votes in a Townish way to drive or foster miselim wagons, or in the best scum world, not hinder miselim wagons.
In post 538, Bellaphant wrote:I don't think we're communicating at all....
Oh, we are, just not with anything close to perfect understanding. You have a passive tone and a way of organizing your post that just makes it hard for me to parse your exact meaning.
In post 538, Bellaphant wrote:...I thought it was obvious that yesterday I was tr-ing you and Nek pretty hard and scum reading cor and then at the end of the day I was basically swapping cor and Nek around, which has continued into today.
Yes, actually. However I keep losing track of what your saying, it's not leaving a lasting impression, which is why I say "hard to read" and "dangerous". If you're scum, you're doing an excellent job of continually slipping from my awareness, if you're town you're making it hard of me to bounce ideas off your positions (in my own head).

Which is why just like Corwin and Spartan I've been holding off on scumreading you and I can't townread you.
In post 538, Bellaphant wrote:Like I said, I think I had my head in my arse with the slot before.
I've been thinking that too, just int he exact opposite direction.
In post 538, Bellaphant wrote:My issue with always be culling and then your absence from the wagons has lined up with your defence - you said "However, consistently being on miselim wagons can be evidence of scum behavior" and ok, I get it, but you haven't been a driving force on other wagons either.
Just like you, I didn't need to be. Aside for some gentle nudging of CCGeek to try to get him to pull up and stop crashing (and my white knighting him), there was nothing I wanted to add to that wagon. Oppositely with SirRhett, I made some pushes, but then stepped back when he ghosted and let Mighty Cannon have their space, unfortunately it was a very deep hole and MC didn't have the time/energy/space/je ne sais quoi to undo the slot's history.

The only real pushing I've done was Spartan and Nektarios, Spartan rings true for me and on Nekt I'm coming around to a "strong maybe isn't scum as I thought". But I could simply be completely snowed by Spartan's meta (and his organic/genuine energy) and Nekt might just be finding his town mask.

So don't ask me to make any ballsy plays today.
In post 538, Bellaphant wrote:It just strikes me as odd, you say always be culling but haven't pushed outside of the lims that are here.
So are you just missing my pushes on Spartan and Nektarios, or is this narrative building?
In post 538, Bellaphant wrote:Plus, with the call out to 'yours and soartans', it feels like you are again putting the responsibility away from your slot. I thought it was a day one joke but here it is again.
I'm not sure I'm 100% following this thought here. Are you saying that because I wasn't driving the wagon, that's sus
1
, and now because I'm directing eyes to thinking about who drove the miselims hardest, that's sus
*
, but somehow because you did all that yourself, it's my stance of SBC that means when I do it it's scummy?


1 - You've neither driven wagons nor even pushed hard on slots (except me Day 3). I get the hard pushing in the final stretch, I welcome the challenges.
2 - You were consistently scumreading Corwin all game, so is this Day 3 one-eighty an actual positional shift from a Townie, or chainsawing?
(@Nekt - 'chainsawing' is what I call Black Knighting, it's not defending a partner, White Knighting, but attacking those going after their partner).


In post 539, Spartan117 wrote:Um I think there is more discussion to be had...
I love you in a purely platonic Message Board Mafia manner.


Anyway, let's see how today and tonight pan out, because come Monday morning (or afternoon) I'm downing three fingers of 100 proof Fuck-It-All and making the final play.

May ZOD have mercy on my soul.
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Post Post #541 (isolation #51) » Sun Oct 16, 2022 1:43 am

Post by evileeyore »

ZOD dammit, I borked the formatting, this is the above post properly formatted (and some spelling fixes) - it had such nice drama at the end and I borked the landing, le sigh:
In post 538, Bellaphant wrote:I don't think that's 100% true, ee, about solving: I find it particularly weird that Nek isn't finding town.
"Not finding town"? Bella, he's consistently townread
you
. Is this some sort of subtle admission he's been wrong on that read all game?
In post 538, Bellaphant wrote:Just from the numbers, finding town should be easier and more optimal. Scum are looking for scummy things to push.
If they are doing that, they are doing a bad job (or you're saying this in a weird way).

Scum need to be moving Day votes in a Townish way to drive or foster miselim wagons, or in the best scum world, not hinder miselim wagons.
In post 538, Bellaphant wrote:I don't think we're communicating at all....
Oh, we are, just not with anything close to perfect understanding. You have a passive tone and a way of organizing your post that just makes it hard for me to parse your exact meaning.
In post 538, Bellaphant wrote:...I thought it was obvious that yesterday I was tr-ing you and Nek pretty hard and scum reading cor and then at the end of the day I was basically swapping cor and Nek around, which has continued into today.
Yes, actually. However I keep losing track of what your saying, it's not leaving a lasting impression, which is why I say "hard to read" and "dangerous". If you're scum, you're doing an excellent job of continually slipping from my awareness, if you're town you're making it hard for me to bounce ideas off your positions (in my own head).

Which is why just like Corwin and Spartan I've been holding off on scumreading you and I can't townread you.
In post 538, Bellaphant wrote:Like I said, I think I had my head in my arse with the slot before.
I've been thinking that too, just in the exact opposite direction.
In post 538, Bellaphant wrote:My issue with always be culling and then your absence from the wagons has lined up with your defence - you said "However, consistently being on miselim wagons can be evidence of scum behavior" and ok, I get it, but you haven't been a driving force on other wagons either.
Just like you, I didn't need to be. Aside for some gentle nudging of CCGeek to try to get him to pull up and stop crashing (and my white knighting him), there was nothing I wanted to add to that wagon. Oppositely with SirRhett, I made some pushes, but then stepped back when he ghosted and let Mighty Cannon have their space, unfortunately it was a very deep hole and MC didn't have the time/energy/space/je ne sais quoi to undo the slot's history.

The only real pushing I've done was Spartan and Nektarios, Spartan rings true for me and on Nekt I'm coming around to a "strong maybe isn't scum as I thought". But I could simply be completely snowed by Spartan's meta (and his organic/genuine energy) and Nekt might just be finding his town mask.

So don't ask me to make any ballsy plays today.
In post 538, Bellaphant wrote:It just strikes me as odd, you say always be culling but haven't pushed outside of the lims that are here.
So are you just missing my pushes on Spartan and Nektarios, or is this narrative building?
In post 538, Bellaphant wrote:Plus, with the call out to 'yours and soartans', it feels like you are again putting the responsibility away from your slot. I thought it was a day one joke but here it is again.
[/quote]I'm not sure I'm 100% following this thought here. Are you saying that because I wasn't driving the wagon, that's sus
1
, and now because I'm directing eyes to thinking about who drove the miselims hardest, that's sus
*
, but somehow because you did all that yourself, it's my stance of SBC that means when I do it it's scummy?


1 - You've neither driven wagons nor even pushed hard on slots (except me Day 3). I get the hard pushing in the final stretch, I welcome the challenges.
2 - You were consistently scumreading Corwin all game, so is this Day 3 one-eighty an actual positional shift from a Townie, or chainsawing?
(@Nekt - 'chainsawing' is what I call Black Knighting, it's not defending a partner, White Knighting, but attacking those going after their partner).


In post 539, Spartan117 wrote:Um I think there is more discussion to be had...
I love you in a purely platonic Message Board Mafia manner.


Anyway, let's see how today and tonight pan out, because come Monday morning (or afternoon) I'm downing three fingers of 100 proof Fuck-It-All and making the final play.

May ZOD have mercy on my soul.
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Post Post #545 (isolation #52) » Sun Oct 16, 2022 8:27 am

Post by evileeyore »

In post 544, Bellaphant wrote:Do you agree that you are putting a bit of 'burden of proficiency' on the se slots?
Of course SEs should be more proficient than total noobs. But even then I'm extending a lot of leeway for mistakes.

/phoneposting under the boss' nose
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Post Post #546 (isolation #53) » Sun Oct 16, 2022 3:18 pm

Post by evileeyore »

In post 544, Bellaphant wrote:I feel like at points your scum read of me has been stronger than maybe it was and am a bit surprised I've not been pushed more.
It's hard to push on someone when they feel ephemeral.
I know you pushes Spartan, but I wasn't really getting your case on Nek, I should go back.
I pushed very hard on Spartan, maybe a "medium" on Nekt, it's been off and on, and somewhat mildly and sporadically on Corwinoid. I half-assed throwing shade at SirRhett (it's to hard push when the push is "you feel scummy because you're lurksliding").
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Post Post #547 (isolation #54) » Mon Oct 17, 2022 12:54 am

Post by evileeyore »

In post 541, evileeyore wrote:Anyway, let's see how today and tonight pan out, because come Monday morning (or afternoon) I'm downing three fingers of 100 proof Fuck-It-All and making the final play.

May ZOD have mercy on my soul.
Look at all that unnecessary melodrama... the deadline is Thursday 1am EDT, not Tuesday 1am EDT.

I have two more days to read SE backgrounds, and Wed is my day off! So... craziness is being held off till Wednesday 1pmish (GMT-4), I want to give everyone roughly 12+ish hours to react to anything truly insane before we have a nolim scumwin.

Oh I know, everyone was holding their breaths to see what stupid nonsense I'd be up to this morn and this is a bit anti-climatic, but y'all'll just have to deal.
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Post Post #562 (isolation #55) » Mon Oct 17, 2022 9:48 am

Post by evileeyore »

In post 560, Spartan117 wrote:Not overly experienced with lots of end of game strategy on how voting should go...
All I know is it makes no difference, miselim or noelim are both scumwins. We have to vote out a scum Today
and
Tomorrow (so no pressure right?), and we've been bereft of investigative roles this game.

I'm going to work on my profile for Corwinoid tonight and tomorrow night, because I suspect I'll need far, far longer to do one on Bellaphant (if for no other reason than she has a lot more games than both you and Corwin
combined
).
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Post Post #566 (isolation #56) » Mon Oct 17, 2022 2:12 pm

Post by evileeyore »

In post 563, Bellaphant wrote:Would scum need to bus here?
No, scum do not need to push today, the best scum play today is to keep things loose and vaguely confusing and either wait for a townie to make a miselim vote and pile on in a coordinated fashion, or let it cruise into a nolim.

Otherwise they could attempt to drive a wagon, but that could backfire. Lastly they could try to subtly direct town to finding a townie as scum. But the only reason to bus a partner when town is in ELo is if they were worried that partner was going to have a wagon built on them and they wanted to distance.

I still think it's a bad move for scum and not playing as a team. Frex is scum!me was partnered with scum!Nektarios, Corwin and Spartan have him strongly scum read, but scum!evileeyore and town!Bella have started to townlean him. If town!Bella were to flipflop suddenly, scum!evileeyore would be served well to go ahead and find some reason to scum read him. Likewise for scum!Nektarios to do so with scum!evileeyore, since I've been soft scumleaned repeatedly, it could create distance to keep one scum alive tomorrow if we eliminate the other Today. But I still only see that sort of play being made by frightened scum, where today I feeling like scum are in a strong, safe position and can afford to just wait.

The lack of investigatives and the loss of the Mason
Team
night one was a hard blow. If anyone other than HPE (and Mr Turtle of course) had gone out night one, we'd have had a radically different Day 2.


In post 564, Spartan117 wrote:I felt their posting about the masons was weird given we had already talked this game about how outing your role and reducing the numbers for scum was bad during day 1, I can see it coming from newb town but after we established it would negatively effect town and in this case led to a day 2 claim of turtle which I still don't know myself if its better to have a conf town later on...
It's not what led to Mr Turtle claiming. That was Corwin pointing out it was better to claim Yesterday to avoid fake claims today (which I 110% agree with).

Frex, today we couldn't afford to miselim so there's no pressure on scum to not fakeclaim as Mason if the second Mason were still alive, however had they made the claim yesterday and we eliminated Mr Turtle, we'd have a confscum Today.

But that post of Nekt's was a bad play, it just feels like a bad townie play rather than a scumslip. After all scum!Nektarios could have had that discussion in their PT and do you think anyone of us would have advise him to go public with it? That's one of the reasons I've come around to Nektarios to just making newbtown mistakes, not being scum, it doesn't feel like they got a coach in the background helping them.
I feel like it is and maybe turtle dipped at the end if day 2 because they knew they were dead in the night idk I guess we won't know but I'm still a little unsure on the best strategy surrounding it.
Good chance.


In post 565, Bellaphant wrote:My other issue is that while Nek has gone down my readlist and corwin has gone up, ee seems to have the opposite takes?
See above... but also, I'm not scum trying to once again paint a townie as scum because they've made a number of poor plays that are easy scumreads.

I'm very sure now that our two mafia are both SEs. I'm just trying to make sure it's not confirmation bias, because if I make a bold move and get it wrong... and we've got time, I just need to keep reminding myself I don't need to go crazy, yet. (But the Vampire LARPer in me is dying to go wild and chew the scenery in a crazy bold play. I need to get back into a V-LARP, I'm jonesing for teh dramas.)
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Post Post #569 (isolation #57) » Mon Oct 17, 2022 6:46 pm

Post by evileeyore »

In post 568, Corwinoid wrote:I still stand hard on Spartan being town, or willing to lose on it.
Agreed.
In post 568, Corwinoid wrote:I'm most unsure about Bella at this point.
For me it's you and Bella. Bellaphant because I can't get a motivational read, and you because too many of your posts taste "deliberately well-crafted and subtly manipulative" to let me keep just letting you rest of your good town plays.

Scum can make town plays as well, they just have to make sure a townie get's eliminated as a result (or at least no scum get eliminated).
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Post Post #592 (isolation #58) » Tue Oct 18, 2022 1:23 am

Post by evileeyore »

Ooph. GG peeps, that's probably our scum team right there popping off.
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Post Post #605 (isolation #59) » Tue Oct 18, 2022 1:55 am

Post by evileeyore »

In post 576, Corwinoid wrote:Jesus Christ Spartan, best scum game I've seen by a mile.
I was thoroughly pocketed!

Doesn't help that my profile of him says (basically): "This is exactly how new-meta Spartan plays, I need to see a scum game from him with his new meta for more info..." and I just didn't think to press him after Day 1.

The only thing Spartan did that could be considered scummy was the bulldogging his wagons... but that's just his new meta and isn't AI for him... so yeah, way more heat on you in the future Spartan!

And this was where Spartan completely pocketted me:
Spartan wrote:Also we had Geek claim VT which made the odds better, I dont see people bringing up roles if they are a PR as they want to stay under the radar.
My response to him was somewhat genuine frustration if I had been town in that position
, as I wouldn't want someone making the odds of hitting PR easier but yeah just a newbtown slip

In post 580, Spartan117 wrote:That was a tense game tbf, was hella fun playing with everyone! Hope I get to play with you all again! Although I don't think anyone is ever gonna trust me ever again! Aha
I thoroughly enjoyed myself, can't wait to see you all across the keyboard again (though I may wait a few weeks to a month, work got way more intense than I expected it too and I need to adjust to these 10 hour days).
In post 582, Spartan117 wrote:There was prob the most heat thrown on an SE scum team in any game I've played in, and we still managed to do it!
My SE "heat" wasn't serious Day 1... but I was shaping it up Day 3. I just thought I was dealing with a super subtle Corwinoid and unreadable Bellaphant team. I'll adjust my scumdar accordingly for the future!


In post 577, Bellaphant wrote:Rude ;)
I know, no shade, Spartan's new meta is just super tight where your style is just very hard to pin down. No scum plays, but also no town plays. Nice soft questioning of everyone, nice "soft" town game, excellent "Active Lurking" scum game. Fit's your meta perfectly so there's nothing to point at as "this isn't how Bella plays!" Had me confused and unable to push you all game. I need to figure out how to push air for any future games, because you aren't going to be the only one who plays with this style.




Well, this game has taught me that I've gotten a lot better at sniffing out town (CCGeek, Mr Turtle, and
finally
Nektarios mid-Day 3) in the last 15 years, but I need to avoid being blinded by early strong townreads and I have to go back and repush my townreads, not just keep trying to push my unknowns and scumreads.

Thanks catboi for running this game! And everyone for playing!


Also, Corwinoid, Spartan, Bellaphant, and everyone else: What do you think of my read on how the Mason role should play? As a "Confusion/Sacrifice Team", IE, they only bring information in death so they need to claim "relatively early" (IE
before
ELo) to avoid fakeclaims in ELo, but otherwise their only purpose is to mildly confuse ScumTeam into thinking there are investigatives (though how much this wastes scum's time and brain power is purely subjective).
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Post Post #606 (isolation #60) » Tue Oct 18, 2022 2:03 am

Post by evileeyore »

In post 598, Spartan117 wrote:
In post 109, evileeyore wrote:In 100% of games where Spartan survives to see Day 2, TOWN LOSES.

QED: For the good of town, we must remove Spartan before Day 2 dawns
The streak is still alive, guess I'm gonna be a priority elim day 1 from here on out.... pls no :cry:
Yeah... now I wish I'd've pushed that nonsense harder... ;)


In post 599, Corwinoid wrote:That was awful logic with a hilarious result in retrospect.
:lol:

I'll mosdef need to follow my insane bullshit comedy gut reads more in the future. :mrgreen:
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Post Post #612 (isolation #61) » Tue Oct 18, 2022 5:28 am

Post by evileeyore »

In post 611, Bellaphant wrote:No redactions

I think it was hard for town with the two lurker slots and I was being genuine when I said I don't think masons are good for town or scum in newbies.
I don't know if Mason's are bad for Newbie games per se... but I having more traditional roles does make the game simpler. For the non-traditional roles, I think Mason is a better call than say Neighbor or unmodded Reporter, even if I can't see why the wiki calls it a "powerful" role. It feels more like Communication in general, it's something a pair of strong players could maximize, but the role isn't in itself inherently potent.



Side request; Prism has a stronk analysis game, if it's not too indecorous, I'd like to know from Prism if they think Spartan or Bella made any slips that Town didn't capitalize on?

Likewise (though it's probably in the Mafia PT thread), Bella and Spartan, was there anything you felt we Townies just somehow missed that we should have zeroed in on?
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Post Post #614 (isolation #62) » Tue Oct 18, 2022 6:26 am

Post by evileeyore »

In post 600, Spartan117 wrote:Just remember guys it's always a team of SEs, from here on out I shall be a Newbie and avoid all SE affiliations.
I should have stuck with my shitposter instincts, could have had this game solved Day 1... :mrgreen:

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