Newbie 2109: Taco Hemingway | Game Over

[Weuler]

New game!

[Weuler]

VOTE: CCGeek, obvious lurkscum. Haven't made a single post

[Weuler]

Looks like I'm under acidic attack

[Weuler]

tis a DkKoba host!

@Weuler @Not Known 15 kindly get a profile picture please, it makes your posts easier to identify while skimming

Surely I already have one?

[Weuler]

VOTE: CCGeek, obvious lurkscum. Haven't made a single post

ooh, interesting observation indeed. Unfortunately for you, the odds of that happening surely is 1/8, right?

I would never let mere odds get in the way of my intuition

[Weuler]

So Dionysus is at E-2 during RVS! Impressive

[Weuler]

You, Space and Not Known is voting for him.

[Weuler]

Don't try to use your Geass to get out of this CCG, we have sunglasses

[Weuler]

The result of the CCG wagon may be even more informative

[Weuler]

How is him not voting any worse than you voting to no vote?
Also don’t like the “it’s not E-2”, “oh it doesn’t matter it’s E-2”, seems slippery.

Honestly, I would've understood if this fuss was about me accidentally putting someone at E-1. But even in that case, on a D1, I wouldn't have withdrawn my vote, since the slot in question hasn't posted their thoughts yet.

You wouldn't have minded putting someone at E-1 at page 1 on day 1? You do realise that allows a scum to "accidentally" hammer?

[Weuler]

Also istg, if a genuine but stupid mistake leads me to becoming the lim for today, I'll literally riot... that is exactly what had happened my last town game asw.
The "not E-2" mistake was a genuine mistake. Not sure how to make it more believable, but yeah.

I have no trouble believing you accidentally missed Not Known's vote. After all they don't have an avatar so easy to miss. I do, however, find your reasoning for not minding E-1 or E-2 to be odd.

[Weuler]

Town(by exclusion)FroggyMaybe, CCGeek, AurorusVox, Space, Weuler, Wayward Son


Scum:Dionysus, Fredrick A Campbell

VOTE: Fredrick A Campbell

(Their reactions to Dionysus being E-2 are awful)

Could you explain the difference between Campbell's reaction and Aurorus's reaction?

[Weuler]

Also don’t like the “it’s not E-2”, “oh it doesn’t matter it’s E-2”, seems slippery

This seems misinformative to me.
The "it's not E-2" is not what was said, it was CCG typing one thing and then after getting called out on it admitting his mistake.
The "oh it doesn't matter it's E-2" was not his excuse either with the actual quote being

Also IMHO, E-2 isn't really "bad" on page 1 of Day 1, and in fact, the person's reaction as well as the future development on the wagon outside RVS may provide an interesting point to analyze later in the game.

With that said, I'd prefer to not retract my vote for now, this discussion has the potential to evolve further.

Although I can understand how Aurorus might come to to these conclusions, I will be voting them. VOTE: Aurorus

Also the fact that my first vote got taken seriously I find is a little funny.

I think Aurorous summed up CCG's posts quite accurately. He did say it was not E-2 in 24, and he did say in 28 that his actions did not change when he found out it was actually E-2.

[Weuler]

I suspect:
Space is town.
CCGeek is mafia.
Not Known 15 is mafia with CCGeek.

Why do you townread Space?

[Weuler]

I would never let mere odds get in the way of my intuition

Surely stating that your intuition is horribly wrong doesn't get me pushed further, right?

In all seriousness, fluff aside, the only notable thing that has happened till now is Dionysus' response, saying that Weuler's pfp loads for him, in response to me. AKA responding to fluff when he could respond to existing game content (Space's vote on him) or drop his own vote.

Therefore, I shall VOTE: Dionysus.

How is him not voting any worse than you voting to no vote?
Also don’t like the “it’s not E-2”, “oh it doesn’t matter it’s E-2”, seems slippery

VOTE: CCG

This is actually trying to get information via a question, and is a genuine stance someone could hold. This is not suspicious.

Fair point, I can see what you mean

[Weuler]

Town(by exclusion)FroggyMaybe, CCGeek, AurorusVox, Space, Weuler, Wayward Son


Scum:Dionysus, Fredrick A Campbell

VOTE: Fredrick A Campbell

(Their reactions to Dionysus being E-2 are awful)

Could you explain the difference between Campbell's reaction and Aurorus's reaction?

Not Known 15, Space and CCGeek are voting Dionysus, putting Dionysus at E-2.
VOTE: CCGeek
I don't believe what I quoted was an innocent mistake.

So, out of the blue Campbell assumes that this was not an innocent mistake. There is absolutely no town reason for Campbell to have this strong of an opinion. This looks like a total overreaction! Mistakes can happen, and wrongly saying that E-2 is E-3 after someone correctly said E-3 is not something scum would plan to make, usually. And because it came just 2 minutes after the previous posts it is very believable that CCGeek didn't check everything again and assumed that Weuler had made a mistake; after all, it was just one page(and people are usually overconfident that they don't make easy mistakes like that).
So, why would Campbell do this? Perhaps to avoid their partner to be put in an awkward position early...

I would never let mere odds get in the way of my intuition

Surely stating that your intuition is horribly wrong doesn't get me pushed further, right?

In all seriousness, fluff aside, the only notable thing that has happened till now is Dionysus' response, saying that Weuler's pfp loads for him, in response to me. AKA responding to fluff when he could respond to existing game content (Space's vote on him) or drop his own vote.

Therefore, I shall VOTE: Dionysus.

Well, up until this post there was no proper game content to respond to, only fluff. None of the votes on me were serious (because I have "sus" in my name? Come on). However you are pinging me with this with trying to rush an elimination so quickly on day 1. VOTE: CCGeek

Actually, UNVOTE: CCGeek as don't want to rush one myself but my fos is on your for now.

and indeed, this reaction is absolutely terrible!
Trying to rush an elimination so quickly on day 1?

Honestly, I would've understood if this fuss was about me accidentally putting someone at E-1. But even in that case, on a D1, I wouldn't have withdrawn my vote, since the slot in question hasn't posted their thoughts yet.

Nope! It's not! Not withdrawing your vote after everyone knows it is E-1 isn't rushing an elimination.
And then knowing that CCGeek is at E-2(CCGeek personally said it's E-2) puts them at E-1 without saying E-1?
Then realizes the mistake and unvotes?
And that's town?
Nope. Normally, town is generally less self-aware. Here, however... doing the exact same thing you criticize? In the exact same post? Town believes in what they say. Scum doesn't, and is actually much more likely to make a thought mistake like that and then to realize what they have done.

To be fair, CCG voted when there was no game content. Dionysus's vote was cast after CCG had wrote game-relevant posts, so it's not entirely the same situation.

[Weuler]

UNVOTE: CCG their reasoning does not seem scummy to me, even though I don't really agree with all of it.

[Weuler]

Spoiler: post 58 by Wayward Son

If I was forced to vote right now, I'd vote Fredrick A Campbell.

I'm not seeing the Town read on Space.

CCG's faux pas looks NAI and irrelevant to me.

Why are NK and CC related?

I have a different scum read. I'm not willing to discuss the whys and wherefores yet. Ill address it soon though.

I'll be around for a while.

many p-edits Catching up.

I don't recall my reasons. I took notes but I didn't write up my reason well enough for me to remember. I'll reasses my reads.

Convenient to forget your reasoning so you can change your reads depending on where the wind blows

[Weuler]

So…Why did you phrase it like that “If I was forced to vote” if you’re already voting him?

I think I was just calling attention to my vote.

You think?

[Weuler]

Maybe I got the wrong lurkscum. VOTE: Space

[Weuler]

You don't see post 74 containing suspicion?

[Weuler]

In my opinion, anyone who has firmly stated that I am mafia with confidence are town.

I really don't like this. You don't see any reason why maf would jump on the wagon and scumread you? You seem to say

1) "My actions have been suspicious"
2) "Town want to eliminate people who acs suspiciously"

"Hence all those who voted me are town". However, scum also likes to eliminate people who acts suspiciously, as long as they are town. Your reasoning only makes sense if you somehow know that mafia won't want to vote for you, i.e. you are scum. This whole thing seems like scum trying to emulate town reasoning.

[Weuler]

I am considering voting Campbell, but I will need to look through some posts first.

[Weuler]

I'll be swamped today, and I won't post much. But for now, I'm just going to quote two posts from Campbell's ISO:

I suspect:
Space is town.
CCGeek is mafia.
Not Known 15 is mafia with CCGeek.

In my opinion, anyone who has firmly stated that I am mafia with confidence are town. The following are players who fall into this category:
1. Space
2. Dionysus
3. CCGeek
4. Not Known 15
...

The only person on whom his read remains constant is Space. Y'all's thoughts on this?

I still haven't got an answer why he townread space in the first place.

[Weuler]

I am considering voting Campbell, but I will need to look through some posts first.

Welp those posts didn't give much. I would really like a response from Campbell before putting them at E-1.

[Weuler]

I retroactively think I was looking suspect.
Regarding why the mafia would not attempt to push me, there is simply no need for them to do so.

Why would there be no need? If no mafia voted you, and you are town, then 5/6 of the remaining town needs to vote you for a lim. That's a lot

[Weuler]

Campbell, who are your top scumreads now? Seeing as your old scumreads are now your townreads

[Weuler]

Precisely

New scumreads:
Wayword Son and Weuler

Please elaborate

[Weuler]

Spoiler: post 90 by Weuler

I retroactively think I was looking suspect.
Regarding why the mafia would not attempt to push me, there is simply no need for them to do so.

Why would there be no need? If no mafia voted you, and you are town, then 5/6 of the remaining town needs to vote you for a lim. That's a lot

And why would the mafia be attempting to get me executed?

Assuming you are town, scum would surely be happy to lim you?

[Weuler]

If I'm getting this correctly, I believe Campbell's logic rn is something along the lines of: Scum wants to leave a "scummy" person alive till D2 for a better push. It's a rather interesting approach to a newbie game.

I don't buy it. There are other wagons around, like Dionysus's.

[Weuler]

I would really like to see Campbell stop being so tight-lipped. Leaving all his posts up to interpretation

[Weuler]

The thing with Campbell's logic is that if he is executed and is Town then the first thing I would do day 2 is look at who voted for him. So it would be a smart scum strategy to keep off him and get credit for not executing a townie.

But the argument being presented feels like scum scrabbling to try and save themselves. It doesn't feel like a townie making a pro town argument or logical deduction.

Whatever my signature says, logical deduction is quite hard to accomplish in mafia. Regarding Campbell: He is making life very easy for scum who want to hammer him by not elaborating on his reads. It is easy to discredit reads that don't have any justification whatsoever. Well-justified reads carry more weight if Camp gets hammered and flips green.

[Weuler]

[/vote]CampbellVOTE: To me it seems like he's dug himself a hole that he cannot get out of. I don't like the minimal answers that has been provided so far, and I cannot see why town would play in that way.

This is E-1 I hope this gets them talking.

[Weuler]

VOTE: Campbell

[Weuler]

I do think that both wolves aren't on Campbell's wagon right now (one on, one off at most if Campbell's town as of this post) but I'm hoping Campbell can answer the questions I raised towards him and give more solid reasonings and reads on the gamestate.

Is there anyone in particular you'd like to discuss other than Campbell/Wayward? CCG is a bit interesting to me due to how defensive they got early on from Campbell's push about the elimination counts, but I'm not sure if there's anything directly AI in those posts or the method they were made.

"Both wolves". Do you somehow know that Campbell is town?

[Weuler]

I see, you must be really certain of that townread.

[Weuler]

Haven't had time to sit down with the game since yesterday. Now let's see

[Weuler]

I see, you must be really certain of that townread.

I am!

Do you want to talk about any of my other reads, such as Wayward or CCG?

Regarding CCG: Initially thought he was acting a bit odd, a good first wagon to push, if nothing else to get reactions out of other players. I don't like how he tried to come up with reasoning for Campbell.
Regarding Wayward: I agree with your observations here. He hasn't really done any analysing at all. Possibly scum

[Weuler]

Not much activity today. Are the inactives bored townies, or scum waiting for a town Campbell to get limmed?

[Weuler]

Campbell really boggles my mind. If he is town I don't see why he doesn't try to help town with some insight. If he is scum, then it is still not good scumplay. I would not be against him as d1 lim.

[Weuler]

I am curious what could have motivated Dio's strong townread on Space.

[Weuler]

And I am really wondering whether 128 is a scumslip or not.

[Weuler]

First off, my initial impression of KingTroll was a townie but I thought Post 117 was weird as that could be an honest mistake like what I think happened with CCG, but alongside this observation from Weuler makes me start wondering why KingTroll is trying hard to attach themself with Campbell. At least, that's what it feels like to me. It's possible what you said in response to Weuler is true, and it would be a valid way to look at the game, but the way that Campbell has been handling his own situation makes me find it a bit strange.

The original edit to my introductory post was more that I put my name into my readlist, counted up, went "Oh, that's 8 people that's fine", and hit post-

I realize that I'm being a bit forceful with my townread on Campbell, but I don't find them a hit at all and I'd prefer to dissuade people from their elimination as a whole as of right now (especially with some people stating they're finding their anti-town behavior worthy of elim regardless of alignment like in post 136)! I'd much rather put pressure on and eliminate someone who is playing scummy over anti-town.

To clarify: My read on campbell is not that he is town playing badly. I definitely scumread him. The post you link to is just saying that neither town nor mafia makes perfect sense. On the other hand, he has to be one of them, and I lean mafia.

[Weuler]

I don't have time to write a lot right now, but I'd just like to say that I find scenario (2) above unlikely. If Fred is not limmed today, then I believe he will get limmed soon enough, which wouldn't be good for KT.

[Weuler]

I have had a very busy week so I'm sorry for not being able to put in the required attention in the thread. I just want to say that Campbell's recent posts have made me reconsider my read slightly. Still, his earlier actions makes me hesitant to not lim.

[Weuler]

The team is likely Dio and NK15. Pick one and kill them today with me.

UNVOTE:

[Weuler]

Looks like Lady has more to say than Campbell

[Weuler]

Well that was certainly an aggressive approach to the game

[Weuler]

Weuler, to be clear, have you unvoted because you believe them to be town, or because you were worried about someone hammering before LLD could post their views?

I didn't want them to get hammered before giving their reads. My read on the slot has not flipped to town, but I am less certain about them being scum. One of my main points for scumreading in the first place was Campbell's scummy logic, but I am becoming more uncertain whether that was just bad logic from Camp.

[Weuler]

Dio has not really pinged me as scum. I am going to take a look at the arguments people have presented, but until then I am putting my vote back VOTE: Ladyλδ

[Weuler]

Lady town and KT scum is an interesting thought

[Weuler]

Lady town and KT scum is an interesting thought

If KT scum, do you not think Dio scum naturally follows?

A lot of people have that connection built, do you disagree?

I have not been keeping up with the game as much as I'd liked this last week. Could you link some posts were such a connection is made?

[Weuler]

this list is ordered

KingTroll

Lady Lambdadelta
Not Known 15
Dionysus

AurorusVox

CCGeek

Space
Weuler

pedit I get there's no time to divert but i'm just saying i think you're both pretty townie imo

Spicy reads

[Weuler]

UNVOTE: LLD I can really see this slot being town.

[Weuler]

what's spicy about them other than they're colored like peppers

Your scum list contains some people who have flown under the radar. Until this post I don't think a single person had scumread me. In particular, I don't see why scum would have reason to try to rouse suspicion against such a person (they could just NK)

[Weuler]

Please elaborate on your scumread on me by the way

[Weuler]

I am going to bed

[Weuler]

what's spicy about them other than they're colored like peppers

Your scum list contains some people who have flown under the radar. Until this post I don't think a single person had scumread me. In particular, I don't see why scum would have reason to try to rouse suspicion against such a person (they could just NK)

As I went to sleep after posting this, I realized this argument was faulty. Precisely because someone might draw the conclusion I did in the quoted post.

[Weuler]

Well that sucks

So, we both know that there was at least one scum on the Dio wagon.

[Weuler]

Actually.... We need to know if we are in the JK world or not the absolute most.

There might be a way to.... Organize a claim in such a way...

Do you mean there is a way to organize a claim without revealing the JK?

[Weuler]

In this situation... We should do the following.

If the remaining power role is a friendly neighbour, they should simply claim at this point.

Otherwise, I think we let the doctor or JK try their hand one more night from anon and work around it for today. Especially if it is jk/roleblocker

If neighbour claims, then scum knows there is no doctor. Couldn't it be beneficial for scum to believe there may be a doctor? Assuming we're in column 2.

[Weuler]

Actually.... We need to know if we are in the JK world or not the absolute most.

There might be a way to.... Organize a claim in such a way...

Could you explain why this is the most important. Most likely we are not in JK column, so risking revealing our PR may not be the best course of action.

[Weuler]

Most likely we are not in JK column

, so risking revealing our PR may not be the best course of action.

Pardon? I do not quite follow your logic here.

Assuming the only thing we know about the game is that there exists a tracker, there is a 1/3 chance of us being in column A, with a 2/3 chance of us being in column B. Now, we of course know more about the game than that, so the probabilities are not exact.

[Weuler]

If STD is town, then there are 2 scum on the dio wagon. I would assume that scum are hesitant to join the same wagon limming a town as they would both be under suspicion afterwards. So in this case one of them would perhaps join the wagon later on if it appears as if the lim will not happen otherwise.

If STD is scum, then there is one scum on the wagon. Now who would be a partner to STD/WS? Hmm

[Weuler]

Space seems scummy to me. If he is scum I seriously doubt LLD being scum.

[Weuler]

i don't think space looks good from yesterday but i'd like to hear from them again

but why would LLD be cleared from space being scum

Their interactions with Campbell doesn't seem like scum interacting with scum. Also he was about to hammer Campbell.

[Weuler]

Like, anyone who is scumreading me at this point needs to strongly consider why the fuck scum!LLD shoots KT in the face over any of the slots way more suspicious of me and/or willing to kill me.

Like Weu who ended the day voting me, or NK15, who was so very clearly going to default back to me after calling me town yesterday.

If you can't give an answer to that that isn't "for this WIFOM, obviously" which... given how few votes are in the town today.... terrible argument, then you lack real situational reads on me.

I'm just not scum here, because I never shoot KT here.

For any future reference: I did not end the day voting LLD.

[Weuler]

Based on WS posts, I strongly doubt that STD and LLD are both scum.

[Weuler]

This leads me to the following conclusion.

One of AV, CCG, Arko, NK15 are scum.

[Weuler]

If AV is scum, then I don't think their partner is either of LLD or STD.

This means one of CCG, ARKO, NK15 are most likely scum.

[Weuler]

Weuler what’s your read on CCG?

I think his first posts were NAI, at least after looking through their post history. Looking at their ISO now, it seems very passive in some sense, which to me indicates scum.

[Weuler]

This means one of CCG, ARKO, NK15 are most likely scum.

Funnily enough, this list contains Arko's greatest townreads.

[Weuler]

Now, do I believe in Arko's reads and vote Arko?

[Weuler]

STD, what do you think of the argument so far. The argument for one of CCG, ARKO, NK15, AV being scum only uses the fact that one of {Weuler, STD} is town. Do you think me and AV could be a likely scum team, or do you think there is scum in {CCG, ARKO, NK15}?

[Weuler]

NK15, what's your read on STD?

[Weuler]

I will try to write out my logic in more detail in a while.

[Weuler]

Claim 1: Weuler is town.

I know that this claim is true.

Consequence 1: Assuming that claim 1 is true, there is at least one scum among {LLD, AV, NK15, Arko, CCG}

The proof of this is clear as there are 2 scum and 7 alive players.

Claim 2: If LLD is scum, then STD is not.

This claim is motivated by WS's interactions with Campbell.

Consequence 2: Assuming that Claim 1 and Claim 2 are true, there is at least one scum among {AV, NK15, Arko, CCG}

The proof is clear as not both LLD and STD can be scum by Claim 2.

Claim 3: If AV is scum, then neither LLD nor STD are scum

This is motivated by AV's interactions with these slots during d1.

Consequence 3: Assuming Claim 1, 2 and 3, there is at least one scum among {NK15,Arko,CCG}

Proof: From Consequence 2 we already know there is at least one scum in {AV, NK15, Arko, CCG}. We split the proof into cases. First, if AV is scum, then neither STD nor LLD is scum by claim 3 so the second scum must be in {NK15,Arko,CCG} (here we also used Claim 1). We turn to the second case. If AV is not scum, then by Consequence 2, there is one scum among { NK15, Arko, CCG}.

Consequence 3 is what I stated in 450.

[Weuler]

As I am the only town-player that knows for certain that claim 1 above is true, I mention that Consequence 3 given above can also be proven from the following modified claims:

Claim 1': STD is town.

Claim 2': If LLD is scum, then Weuler is not.

Claim 3': If AV is scum, then neither LLD nor Weuler are scum

This is possibly only of interest to STD, as they know whether they are town or not. Obviously I will not write out a motivation as to why Claim 2' or Claim 3' should be true, as they concern me being town. The point is that if you believe all these claims for whatever reason, then consequence 3 is still true.

[Weuler]

Let's talk a bit about the people from Consequence 3.

CCG: As I mentioned in 451 I don't like their "passive" posts. As STD wrote in 459, CCG is mostly just posting information about the game instead of analysing.
Arko: Looking back at Space's ISO I don't find it too bad. I don't like Arko's top townreads though.
NK15: I don't have a good read here, but I don't townread NK. Not a lot of analysis done here either. If NK is scum, then a potential scum partner could be STD, as these slots have barely interacted.

[Weuler]

Oh great CCG is town. From my earlier posts yesterday that makes me quite certain that one of Arko and NK are scum.

[Weuler]

Arko's reveal essentially kills my reasons for disliking this slot

[Weuler]

Take a look at 461 to see why I have "removed" AV. (This doesn't mean I don't think they can be scum, the point is that I don't think they are scum together with STD or LLD.)

I think you misunderstand my logic if you are criticising me for removing AV without them postung recently. The point is that through just logic one of {LLD,AV, CCG, Arko, NK} is scum. Possibly there are 2 scum here, but no less than 1. Then I have reduced this set to just contain {CCG, Arko, NK}, see post 461, by looking at posts from d1 essentially. This does not mean that the people that were removed from this set are town, it just means that I strongly believe there is at least one scum in {CCG, Arko, NK}. With your reveal, CCG can be removed.

[Weuler]

To add: Why in the hells would the FN target someone they consiered mafia or weren't so sure about their town status? I can see your possible problems with this as a defense, but really it's today and it's results that will matter the most to your reads going into tomorrow, which matter more than your current reads today, I'd assume.

I don't consider CCG to be a "scum oracle" just because they are confirmed town. Some people townread space d1, I did not.

Anyway, as I mentioned looking back at space I find them less suspicious. As I also mentioned the most suspicious part of your slot was the top of your readlist. Now that has been clarified, whence it's not very suspicious.

[Weuler]

I want to eliminate one of NK and you(Arko) today. I am leaning towards NK and trying to convince myself this is the right choice.

[Weuler]

Still I do assume that Set really only works with information from today's kill. Would I be correct to say this?

Yeah exactly. The starting point of my reasoning is essentially 387 where I make the obervation that there must have been least one scum on the Dio Wagon. The rest is just eliminating unlikely scum pairs.

[Weuler]

To clarify: all consequences written in 461 are 100% logically correct. It is just logical deduction. Note however, that all consequences are conditional on the presented "Claims" being true.

I am not sure I understand your last post. Are you saying that you think that one of Claim 2 or Claim 3 are false? I.e. do you think one of LLD/STD, AV/STD, AV/LLD could be a scum pair?

[Weuler]

Of cause they aren't the oracle of scum, but they still wouldn't pick someone they didn't heavily believe was town (Unless he did, and he can say that now) and having an opinion of someone confirmed town is definitely more important than the unknown alignment fuck or the dodgy fucker.

Yeah I'll of course consider their opinion. I also have my own opinion and of course I know that I am town. As I said, I am currently not leaning towards you being scum though.

[Weuler]

I'm actually going to go ahead and VOTE: NK15 for now.

[Weuler]

Also: To anyone who feels like it.

Please criticize

Claim 2 and Claim 3 of 461. If you have reason to believe that one of STD/LLD, STD/AV, AV/LLD could be the scum pair, then please explain why. Consequence 3 hinges on Claim 2 and Claim 3 being true so if I have missed something here, please tell me.

Of course you can also critize Claim 1, but I already know that claim is true, so that's mostly for your own sake.

[Weuler]

No, I'm less thinking that, I'm basically saying that many parts of your post seem to heavily rely on the result of delta. You removed them from the pool, Removed Fenrir from the pool because you doubted they could be scum with Delta (So your pool is based off a scum!delta, or this decision was based off that) and you also removed AV for being unlikely to be scum with delta or fenrir (also in a way, scum!delta focused)

Removing from the pool doesn't mean that they are not scum. Just that one of the people remaining in the pool are scum. If you believe all the claims, then you must believe in the consequence, that's just deduction.

Perhaps you are asking why delta is in the center of the argument. The reason is that my read on delta is so muddled right now that I thought it would be easier to see who else could be scum instead of limming here (this does not mean that I am assuming that delta is town, nor does it mean I am assuming they are scum!). Also, the delta slot is so polarizing so that I could eliminate lots of scum pairs involving delta.

[Weuler]

I see, then I guess I misunderstood your 520.

Do you have any comments on Claim 2 or Claim 3?

[Weuler]

No, Not really. They are pretty likely, actually. Anyways I'm probably gonna go out soon for an hour or two, I won't be responding to anything during that time, and probably won't mention this.

So you believe Claim 2 and 3. If you also believe Claim 1, i.e. that I am town, then for you that means that NK is scum, assuming that you are not. Or do you rather believe I am scum?

[Weuler]

CCG if you still townread me, would you consider voting for NK? I am assuming you are townreading Arko since you used your FN power on them.

[Weuler]

I'll also ISO NK15 a bit, but one thing I feel like no one is talking about is that he's the one who hammered Dio, and that it was 11 hours before deadline.

Yep, I noticed this when I said I wanted to study the dio wagon a few days ago. Doesn't look good

[Weuler]

NK-15 Wouldn't actually be too much of a suprising partner to them, but It would be nice for them to actually interact with us. But yeah, your analysis post still hinges VERY heavily on delta, undeniably, and if it ends up in NK15 being a townie, The scum might as well have an instant win with the huge advantage, because either you get me killed (Most likely would work) Pivot to someone else that could be killed (These are as scum of cause) Or if you aren't scum, The chance town votes scum is way lower than if they vote town at that point. Delta however, your analysis heavily relies on the result of, and their death (If Scum) would be able to easily narrow the scum down, but if they ended town, your analysis would completely break down (As Fenrir's removal is based of Not being delta's scum-partner most likely, and AV the same delta-wise, but also not being fenrir's partner) Once NK-15 gives a good few posts (That aren't very good) to respond to this shit, or the ISO doesn't line up right, I'd be able to truly shift to them. But for now I'm completely stuck on delta, as they both seem the most scum, and the best vote information-wise.

My analysis does not break down if delta is town. In fact, delta being town would strengthen Consequence 3. Indeed, if delta is town, then delta obviously doesn't have a scum partner. Thus you can replace Claim 2 and 3 by a claim that says that STD/AV isn't the scum team to prove consequence 3.

[Weuler]

Still though, AV and Fenrir could easily have different scum partners, this at all doesn't remove them from the scum-pool, and with 2 scum left, It might as well be a 90% Scum win, as the scum can easily misdirect people when everyone is confused who is truly scum and who isn't. When AV and Fenrir are added pack to the pool of Me and NK15 you have going, and they all have their own different reads, alignments, and teammates, The town have an extremely confusing setup and the scum have a completely solved setup for themselves, where they can pretty easily manipulate into either 2v2 Victory or a 1v1 Victory.

They will not get added back to the "pool" until we have found out which one of you and NK15 are scum. Whoever is scum outside of {NK15, Arko} doesn't impact my analysis. (Unless we find 2 scum outside, in which case one of claims 2 or 3 is wrong)

[Weuler]

And remember, CCG/Delta being both townies and dead would leave only people in your scumpool left, and AV/Fenrir. It would be really hard to even find one player that most of you can agree isn't scum that well... Isn't scum, with no one being even remotely near the High-Degree of town in most of your views, 5 different most likely conflicting views, and 2 scum between that with a very easily manipulable game for them.

Then don't lim LLD today?

[Weuler]

I don't understand. You are risking exactly scenario 4 by keeping your vote on delta.

[Weuler]

Or perhaps you think getting to scenario 3 is worth the risk? I wouldn't call that avoiding scenario 4 "like the plague" though. If NK15 gets limmed today, delta will remain tomorrow to lim (unless they are nightkilled which seems very unlikely with CCG around)

[Weuler]

- I like weulers approach, but I think the logic is flawed - *if* LLD is scum I think std makes a good partner (look back at Fred/WS interactions)

Hmm looking at it, it is a possibility. Still WS spends their last posts putting pressure on Campbell. However, possibly this is just a way to not get caught if camp flips red. You have made me doubt my Claim 2 a bit.

[Weuler]

Still NK's iso is not very impressive

[Weuler]

Please elaborate: why definitely town?

[Weuler]

VOTE: Weuler
It could be Weuler, though, the posts are pretty manipulative, especially the one with the "I am town" premise.

Do you have any other scumreads?

[Weuler]

So all that said: does anyone fancy joining me over here in the world where we don’t save the dragons; we slay them?

Perhaps, I have admitted that STD has a sketchy ISO and he definitely should be the prime push D3. Not sure if we stop with the NK wagon though, evidence stacks up against him pretty significantly.

At this point it would surprise me if NK flips green.

If he does however, then I would start looking at the possible scum team STD/LLD. Unless Arko is scum then at that point this is the only reasonable scum team.

[Weuler]

is there anyone who doesn't want NK15 to die at this point?

that's kind of weirding me out. i mean it could be a bus but i'm starting to get nervous that scum are just fueling the fire into the lim that they want.

maybe i'm wrong about a lot of things this game.

If my intuition is correct, then you and NK are scum, and neither of you are fueling anything.

[Weuler]

So all that said: does anyone fancy joining me over here in the world where we don’t save the dragons; we slay them?

Perhaps, I have admitted that STD has a sketchy ISO and he definitely should be the prime push D3. Not sure if we stop with the NK wagon though, evidence stacks up against him pretty significantly.

At this point it would surprise me if NK flips green.

If he does however, then I would start looking at the possible scum team STD/LLD. Unless Arko is scum then at that point this is the only reasonable scum team.

No consideration for AV in that world?

Their posts today have seemed towny to me. Also as I have mentioned I don't see a STD/AV or you and AV being the team.

[Weuler]

Ok, I've looked at various possibilities.

Weuler is town.

(yes they had a townslip)

Arko is scum.

Fine, Fuck it.
There is a friendly neighbour, I know who they are. Now check reads post. Who is at the top?

Why are they at the top with such flimsy evidence? Why would you and Weuler be wrong to put this guy in your possible scum catergory?

Yeah I spelled it out. You all get it now, So I'll Just reveal it:

CCG - Friendly Neighbour

Sorry CCG,

Mafia were gonna probably kill you anyways,

but I've just confirmed it here. At least it clears you.

How did I crumb it? I basically said it in the response post: Why are my reads like that, specifically? Why was I so opposed to your reads, Fenrir? why was it against the Information in the game? Because I was targetted by the friendly neighbour, who both of you considered very scummy. Also, NK15? With the interactions between a

Confirmed Town

and a person I heavily see as

Scum, Mainly their Predecessor

gave off just town vibes. Simply said, With only 2

Scum,

I doubt NK15 can be scum by a moderate amount. as Said in reads post: At a lower degree of town than the person I know is confirmed town, but still higher than everyone besides them.

Sooo CCG is under high suspicion but Arko thinks Mafia would kill them? Well, because Mafia was targeted! And you know why Arko reveals that? Because defending CCG makes them look suspicious! They even basically say as much and totally try to defend massively against suspicions from this reveal in their post, preemptively.

Arko is 100% Mafia.

Eliminate that one right off the bat tomorrow if you lim me today.

This is a good point. Arko, why did you think CCG would get limmed?

[Weuler]

Summed up thoughts: NK town, then take a look at std/lld pair.

NK scum: STD could be a potential partner. Perhaps also Arko? Just a thought.

[Weuler]

Looking at Space's iso I don't see Arko slot being scum with LLD or STD.

[Weuler]

Looks like we have no more room for errors

[Weuler]

As there are 2 scum around and we need 3 to lim it's probably best to not vote unless we're sure we want to lim, as scum can come and quickhammer and then win if someone votes for a townie.

[Weuler]

I thought weuler had chained you and arko through saying one of you was scum if not nk, and originally said he didn’t see you and STD as the pair (until I raised the possibility)?

I initially said that one of CCG, Arko and NK was scum. This was assuming STD/LLD wasn't the scum team, and that you weren't scum partner with STD or LLD.

[Weuler]

If AV is scum then well played, scum has essentially won.

[Weuler]

Okay I was reading in reverse order so these quotes are going backwards:

Summed up thoughts: NK town, then take a look at std/lld pair.

NK scum: STD could be a potential partner. Perhaps also Arko? Just a thought.

@LLD - I see what you meant about linking you and STD to NK town now. I guess the chance that weuler is scum with STD would depend on who he pushes out of you or STD today. If you’re town and he’s scum with STD he only needs to push you today instead of STD and he’d win if successful…

So all that said: does anyone fancy joining me over here in the world where we don’t save the dragons; we slay them?

Perhaps, I have admitted that STD has a sketchy ISO and he definitely should be the prime push D3. Not sure if we stop with the NK wagon though, evidence stacks up against him pretty significantly.

At this point it would surprise me if NK flips green.

If he does however, then I would start looking at the possible scum team STD/LLD. Unless Arko is scum then at that point this is the only reasonable scum team.

Same thing as quote above. Going backwards, it does look like weuler would be more likely to go after you (notice in the next few quotes he doesn’t mention STD but does mention you)

Or perhaps you think getting to scenario 3 is worth the risk? I wouldn't call that avoiding scenario 4 "like the plague" though. If NK15 gets limmed today, delta will remain tomorrow to lim (unless they are nightkilled which seems very unlikely with CCG around)

@weuler this is where you are pushing one of NK/LLD as a pair (obviously this is after CCG is removed due to his FN reveal from arko)

Take a look at 461 to see why I have "removed" AV. (This doesn't mean I don't think they can be scum, the point is that I don't think they are scum together with STD or LLD.)

I think you misunderstand my logic if you are criticising me for removing AV without them postung recently. The point is that through just logic one of {LLD,AV, CCG, Arko, NK} is scum. Possibly there are 2 scum here, but no less than 1. Then I have reduced this set to just contain {CCG, Arko, NK}, see post 461, by looking at posts from d1 essentially. This does not mean that the people that were removed from this set are town, it just means that I strongly believe there is at least one scum in {CCG, Arko, NK}. With your reveal, CCG can be removed.

Yeah so I can see that initially you did focus on those three (CCG, NK, Arko) - but there’s definitely focus on NK/LLD as an exclusionary pair later on.

Oh great CCG is town. From my earlier posts yesterday that makes me quite certain that one of Arko and NK are scum.

Here you make the NK/arko determination (and LLD comes later)

———

@weuler do you believe it could be LLD+Arko or do you think STD is more likely to be a partner to either one of these two?

It’s really interesting reading this iso backwards how Arko seems to fade from the consideration (mentioned as a possible NK-scum partner but almost as a throwaway comment)

To clarify: In the post where you say I'm pushing NK/LLD I am really just pointing out that if LLD is not limmed on D2, then they can be limmed D3. I am not saying I will vote them D3, nor that I will not vote them.

Also I am not sure what you mean by "pushing one of NK/LLD as a pair". Do you mean that I am pushing the pair NK/LLD or that I am saying that at least one of them is scum, or that exactly one of them is scum?

[Weuler]

@weuler do you believe it could be LLD+Arko or do you think STD is more likely to be a partner to either one of these two?

It’s really interesting reading this iso backwards how Arko seems to fade from the consideration (mentioned as a possible NK-scum partner but almost as a throwaway comment)

From my recent post about you, you may guess that my d3 will be spent deciding who of STD,LLD and Arko is not scum. I am not ready to exclude any pairing already now.

Regarding Arko's "fading": In a post from d2, pre FN reveal, I mention that looking back, Space's iso is not too bad. However, I say that I don't like Arko because of his weird townreads (CCG, NK). Well it turned out the CCG read wasn't so weird, so this essentially killed my immediate suspicions of Arko.

Regarding the off-hand comment about Arko: i was about to go to bed and saw that LLD had hammered. I wanted to write down my thoughts in the unlikely case that I was limmed instead of CCG. But this was really an "in the moment" thought. I will think more about today (i.e. this irl week)

[Weuler]

Looking at Space's iso I don't see Arko slot being scum with LLD or STD.

Funny, I don't recall writing that post. Looking back it was apparently my last post d2. I guess I will follow my own advice and take a look at Space's iso and see if "sleepy me" had reliable conclusions.

[Weuler]

And based on your own end of day comments you don’t see arko with either LLD or STD - so is that no longer the case? What’s caused that change? That’s why I asked what I did - because you’re only really leaving yourself with pushing STD/LLD or me/arko with your end of day comments. And now it could be any two of those three? I’m trying to figure out if this is opportunistic/keeping options open, or a genuine change of heart based on the NK flip.

To summarise some of my thought processes last day.

I initially said one of NK, Arko is town. Then my case for scumreading Arko was demolished, so I naturally turned to NK who I found quite scummy. With this thinking, an NK town flip should naturally lead to Arko coming under suspicion again, but this was not what happened. At the end of the day my Arko suspicions were low, and then you mentioned the possibility of an STD/LLD pair, which made me seriously consider this possibility, because such a pair would undermine my reasoning for one of CCG, Arko, NK being scum in the first place. I also find both STD and LLD more scummy than Arko right now, but this needs to be carefully studied.

[Weuler]

If AV is scum then well played, scum has essentially won.

I... I don't know about that.

Right now my top concerning team is You+AV.

Arko is the top town for his behaviour WRT the FN yesterday, leaving STD as the only other option...

and STD doesn't pair well as a partner with either of you two.

So, for me, If Arko isn't scum, it HAS to be you two because STD shares minimal equity with either of you.

Well AV is my top town read. Turns out AV is also Arko's top town, hence my post. Personally I just cannot see myself voting Arko with the other scummy people around.

Consider my post about AV as a cry for help. If you scumread AV then please share your concerns, because right now they seem like the towniest town to me.

[Weuler]

If AV is scum then well played, scum has essentially won.

I... I don't know about that.

Right now my top concerning team is You+AV.

Arko is the top town for his behaviour WRT the FN yesterday, leaving STD as the only other option...

and STD doesn't pair well as a partner with either of you two.

So, for me, If Arko isn't scum, it HAS to be you two because STD shares minimal equity with either of you.

Funnily enough, if I follow your reasoning I arrive at you being scum.

[Weuler]

LLD thinks I’m scum with you, weuler.

Yes I know, but in their reasoning they exclude all scum pairs not containing LLD or me. Now I know I am town, so by their reasoning applied by me it is LLD that is scum. Now I haven't looked close enough to say that the reasonong is sound.

[Weuler]

If AV is scum then well played, scum has essentially won.

I... I don't know about that.

Right now my top concerning team is You+AV.

Arko is the top town for his behaviour WRT the FN yesterday, leaving STD as the only other option...

and STD doesn't pair well as a partner with either of you two.

So, for me, If Arko isn't scum, it HAS to be you two because STD shares minimal equity with either of you.

Well AV is my top town read. Turns out AV is also Arko's top town, hence my post. Personally I just cannot see myself voting Arko with the other scummy people around.

Consider my post about AV as a cry for help. If you scumread AV then please share your concerns, because right now they seem like the towniest town to me.

Correction: "Personally I just cannot see myself voting

AV

with the other scummy people around."

[Weuler]

And you can tell this was a chained elimination. Weuler basically spewed he knew NK15 would flip town at the end of yesterday with the "if NK15 flips town, I'll look at LLD/STD".

I did not claim that I knew NK would flip town, rather I stated the opposite, see 580 where I say that I doubt NK being town. Indeed, I still find it very surprising that NK turned out to be town, because their iso was incredibly scummy with essentially no analysis. See e.g. CCG's post analysing NK.

[Weuler]

I am not a big fan of Arko's reaction to NK getting hammered.

[Weuler]

@LLD: if either of me or AV would be town, would you still think the other one is scum?

[Weuler]

Looking through AV's iso and...

I am probably more paranoid about weuler than anyone else because if weuler is scum (esp if they’re scum with arko) I think we’ve already lost;

Great minds etc.

[Weuler]

They come off to me as supremely confident, supremely cocky and almost taunting.

The taunting will not stop

[Weuler]

STD is my strongest scumread but that doesn’t mean I am locked in. There are two scum so why shouldn’t I try to determine who the other one is??

I think it’s pretty clear I’m pushing weuler because I suspect them of being the std partner. I just have to see whether they’re more likely than you. If I confidently townread you, then I wouldn’t care out of std or weuler; in fact I’d probably go weuler first to avoid the weuler-arko situation I described.

That’s why I am also questioning you. But the fact you’re not engaging with my questions really isn’t helping.

So you'll consider voting Weuler today?

Yeah - if you were to convince me you’re town, I would probably vote weuler today

STD do you see the possibility of weuler/arko?

Did your suspicions of STD vanish?

[Weuler]

I don't think STD/Arko is the scum team after looking at Space's iso

[Weuler]

At this point it feels like there is to much interference from the scum who makes up 40% of the remaining players. Today we really just need to find one scum and not the entire pair

[Weuler]

LLD is very hard to read. The whole lunatic defence etc is just weird. Still something feels towny (does the aggression trigger my town indicator perhaps?) But town!LLD does not line up with STD/Arko not being the scum team, and AV being town.

[Weuler]

Now if AV was scum does any partner even make sense?

[Weuler]

(Yes LLD I know you think AV-Weuler makes sense)

[Weuler]

At this point it feels like there is to much interference from the scum who makes up 40% of the remaining players. Today we really just need to find one scum and not the entire pair

You say this and then start immediately looking at pairs…

Yep, it turned out to be hard to ignore the pairings. I usually write what I think without overthinking too much. I find that it makes the game more enjoyable, and makes it feel less like a logic puzzle.

[Weuler]

Still I think that what I wrote regarding the pairs can be good to keep in mind. If someone seems very scummy, but is without a natural partner, then that shouldn't exonerate them.

[Weuler]

If looking at "natural pairs" means looking at pairs whose members don't push each other too hard, or barely interact, then I think such things can be easily faked.

[Weuler]

It's also good to keep in mind that at this point; scum who wants to win can push their partner and a townie. So looking at natural pairs by their interaction today is even harder.

[Weuler]

@AV I will try to respond to the rest of your posts a bit later

[Weuler]

At this point it feels like there is to much interference from the scum who makes up 40% of the remaining players. Today we really just need to find one scum and not the entire pair

LLD-arko makes less sense than STD-arko imo. Wouldn’t you agree?

I don't see LLD-Arko happening.

[Weuler]

At this point it feels like there is to much interference from the scum who makes up 40% of the remaining players. Today we really just need to find one scum and not the entire pair

So despite not wanting to look at pairs (why?) you’d have to argue LLD-STD or AV-arko.

Is there a reason you don’t want to do that?

It's a shame those pairs are disjoint

[Weuler]

@weuler what do you mean by the pairs are disjoint[ed]?

They have no person in common. If they did I would know who to lim already

[Weuler]

After looking at some more iso's I think I know where I lean.

[Weuler]

I would like to hear more thoughts from Arko though

[Weuler]

That gave me a heart attack, let me catch up before heading to bed

[Weuler]

As I know I'm not town (Or that's what I might want to tell you! I'm pretty obviously not confirmed to you guys as town)

like am i just dense i could be but

like what did you mean by this

Someone's slipping

[Weuler]

So my STD/LLD option is dead, anyone up for limming AV or Arko?

[Weuler]

I have not put in my best efforts into analysing possible scum pairs containing AV because I was very sure he was town. Now I am pretty sure AV is scum.

[Weuler]

So Arko was also around when AV's vote was cast. This clears all scumteams not involving AV for me. No point in stalling

[Weuler]

VOTE: AV

[Weuler]

I'm heading to bed

[Weuler]

Noooo

[Weuler]

Good game though. I guess I shouldn't have voted and went to bed

[Weuler]

I have not put in my best efforts into analysing possible scum pairs containing AV because I was very sure he was town. Now I am pretty sure AV is scum.

This is when I realize that even though I have confirmed AV scum, I really don't like the AV-Arko pair. Instead I started considering AV-STD, but I didn't have time to look at it properly, so I didn't mention it. In the case when std was town this could have just agitated a town vote I needed.