Newbie 2124 - Postgame

[ChicagoTypewriter]

VOTE: Chicago Typewriter
Typewriters are sad

Spoken like a man who's never used a typerwriter before. I personally find there's something quite soothing about the rhythmic noise of them, myself, though it does depend on the variety, naturally.

Hey, all. I'm ChicagoTypewriter. I'm just getting into this game, so give me a day or two to start getting reads on people.

[ChicagoTypewriter]

good question. unfortunately, only I know the answer to this question, and I'm not planning to reveal if I am or not anytime soon.

scum
VOTE: CCGeek

sheep is town

Hmm. Quite the snap judgement you've got there. CCGeek, do you feel like claiming town?

[ChicagoTypewriter]

Okay, I’m gonna do a few reads now.

CCGeek

: For some odd reason, I feel like calling him C2. Can’t imagine why. Anyway, aside from some jokes at RVS, he claims to be a rationed voter. Has a slight scumread on PC, which may be relevant later. I’m not getting a townread from him; but that isn’t the same as a scumread.

Political Clout

: Seems kind of jumpy to me, honestly. There’s a lot of questions being thrown out and pressure to move forward where I’m not sure any is called for. Seems to have seriously voted for iamveryhappy with what doesn’t feel like great justification. Also proportionally possesses a large number of posts, which (as everyone knows) is only something that town does. I have a scumread on him.

heipizhu4

: Good analytical reads. Strong townread.

iamveryhappy

: Somehow lurking, despite a lot of posts. There’s not much substance in them. Maybe justifiable because he still thinks we’re in RVS? Slight scumread.

Bellaphant

: I’m not really getting a read here, other than thinking PC needs to justify their thought process (which, to be fair, so do I). Null, currently.

Sheep

: Probably town, but needs to make up his mind on PC.

BBmolla

: Defends Sheep vs PC as town v town. Has yet to post reads of any players and just blanket agrees Indication of a scumteam with PC? Possibly.

Ofthesaints / incomer: Null read, obviously.

Overall: I wouldn't be surprised at a scumteam of BBmolla / Political Clout, though it's not a particularly strong possibility at this point in time. I would like to hear more from Bellaphant and BBmolla about their position and I'm very curious as to what the yet-unnamed newcomer will post first.

[ChicagoTypewriter]

I think we agree on one read, there. One and a half. What do you want me to expand on? I work well with questions

Can I have your read list, then? Or, if not, top 3 players you'd vote today as of right now.

[ChicagoTypewriter]

Political Clout

: Seems kind of jumpy to me, honestly. There’s a lot of questions being thrown out and pressure to move forward where I’m not sure any is called for. Seems to have seriously voted for iamveryhappy with what doesn’t feel like great justification. Also proportionally possesses a large number of posts, which (as everyone knows) is only something that town does. I have a scumread on him.

can you explain jumpy? I don't follow. can you also go deeper into your town read of heipizhu4? and can you explain how their reads are good and analytical please and thank you. And just so I'm clear you scum read me and the guy I'm scumreading? Does that jive logically with you? if so can you explain how?

You have five question marks in that paragraph alone. That's what I mean by 'jumpy'. A solid eighty percent of your interaction in this game so far is you rapid-firing questions into people and I don't feel like you've either generated anything meaningful out of it or applied pressure when questions weren't answered.

Yes, it does 'jive logically' with me and I can walk you through it (though you'll have to grok my flow) - you scumread iamveryhappy at Post 39 within 12 hours of the game based off a joke. I am scumreading him based on two days of interactions.

[ChicagoTypewriter]

Sure, @Bellaphant. I like heipizhu4's posts 74. It's a good ball-and-strikes read of the exchange and comes off very town to me.

Sure, it's not the best evidence, but it's not like we've got anything better from players right now. There's a frustrating lack of interactions.

[ChicagoTypewriter]

@chicago, right now you and geek. You've both done one really big wall post each that I don't get a lot out of, it makes me wonder if you believe it. Like, I don't get the read on help at all, you scum read teo of my null-towns. Talk to me more about heip and happy?

iamveryhappy is getting on my radar for little interactions. Granted he has lots of posts, but if you look at the posts, there's not really anything of substance in most of them. For reference, he's posted 23 times, 10 of which are literally one line and 6 of which are two lines. Most of them aren't even related to scumhunting, and yet, he's complained

twice

about the lack of posts.

[ChicagoTypewriter]

Actually I don't know what 'ball and strikes ' means.

Have you played any ms games?

Sorry, baseball metaphor. It means I think he had a good read on the exchange.

In terms of experience, this is my second game on this site.

[ChicagoTypewriter]

Political Clout

: Seems kind of jumpy to me, honestly. There’s a lot of questions being thrown out and pressure to move forward where I’m not sure any is called for. Seems to have seriously voted for iamveryhappy with what doesn’t feel like great justification. Also proportionally possesses a large number of posts, which (as everyone knows) is only something that town does. I have a scumread on him.

can you explain jumpy? I don't follow. can you also go deeper into your town read of heipizhu4? and can you explain how their reads are good and analytical please and thank you. And just so I'm clear you scum read me and the guy I'm scumreading? Does that jive logically with you? if so can you explain how?

You have five question marks in that paragraph alone. That's what I mean by 'jumpy'. A solid eighty percent of your interaction in this game so far

is you rapid-firing questions into people and I don't feel like you've either generated anything meaningful out of it or applied pressure when questions weren't answered.

Yes, it does 'jive logically' with me and I can walk you through it (though you'll have to grok my flow) - you scumread iamveryhappy at Post 39 within 12 hours of the game based off a joke. I am scumreading him based on two days of interactions.

I'm not sure I follow. just to be clear

jumpy = posting a lot of questions?

Why not just say that then it feels a bit like a buzzword to me meant to substitute a word for substance and when asked you pointed to a post that wasn't in the past that you were referencing but one that was responding to you so that gives me pause. Can you prove what you said in bold

?

or one post that shows what you mean in bold

?

Because to me I am getting reads from people. For example I was townreading you for thinking like me that happy doesn't look good. There is a sort of imo town dissonance with saying x is scum y is scum and z is scum, but x is scum reading y and in the land of probabilities x and z are scum together. it doesn't really and can't follow logically since in this universe and every other there can only be two scum. What does grok mean

?

I can quote a number of your previous posts. Post 37, Post 48, Post 54, Post 55, Post 60, Post 103, Post 126. 'jumpy' is a vibe I'm getting from you from these posts, it's just a lot of questions and pressure with no follow up.

Again, with iamveryhappy - we're scumreading him for two separate reasons and, sure, it doesn't follow logically that both you and him are scum (unless you decided to try for an early game bluff to throw people off), but my reads are probability, not certainty. Logic would be upon discovering that either you or iamveryhappy were scum to assume the other one wasn't. So I think it's likely that one of you is scum, but not both.

[ChicagoTypewriter]

So, BBmolla and Political Clout are voting together against CCGeek.

Interesting...

[ChicagoTypewriter]

What does grok mean?

Oh, also, 'grok' is a slang term not unlike 'jive'; it's meaning differs in context but here it means 'understand'.

[ChicagoTypewriter]

oh you think me and clout are tvs? post more of your theory please

Sorry, what do you mean by 'tvs'?

[ChicagoTypewriter]

so again to be clear jumpy wasn't asking a lot of questions it as a matter of fact was a 'vibe' correct would you be offended if i said it was a gut feeling?

you are slightly incorrect that we are scumreading him for two seperate reasons. As with anything reads are a reflection of the game state so as he keeps posting my reads keep developing he may very well be scum but he also might be a pr trying to hide but but he also imo might just be a VI or some sort I have no idea how to parse a VI or whether he might be scum or town now so I decided to move onto ccgeek sheep says he thinks happy is town I'm willing to let my town read parse him since I can't. I decided to move on from him essentially and reshift my focus since I think happy is actively lurking itt, but not doing much. I think funnily enough he at one point was the person with the most posts. I'll take a look at the posts you mentioned, but can you drill down further on them? can you quote them bold the question and then mention what I didn't follow up on again? because I'm more than happy to pick up those questions. When someone doesn't answer my questions though I will say I usually don't ask again and I usually take that as not wanting to interact with me as I can be a bit of a problem.

did anyone watch gotg3? it was pretty okay not bad

1. The 'vibe' is coming from you rapid-fire questions and

not following up

. Why don't you, oh I don't know, follow up with your suspicions on CCGeek?
2. True, reads are fluid, but my scumread of you is based on you scumreading a person without good cause. The fact that good cause exists later does nothing to alleviate that.
3. No, I'm not quoting and bolding seven of your posts. It's your questions,

you

follow up on them. Unless you don't care to, for some reason...

[ChicagoTypewriter]

oh you think me and clout are tvs? post more of your theory please

Sorry, what do you mean by 'tvs'?

town v scum
I think you posted that one of me or clout is mafia right? so that's tvs

I think ... maybe sixty-five percent chance tvs at this point? If it helps, I'd sooner eliminate Political Clout than I would you.

[ChicagoTypewriter]

I am currently voting ccgeek did you forget?

No, but you're not trying to prove him scum or anything. You just voted and have does nothing to further the scumread.

Just to be clear you're not ever going to quote the posts and point out which questions I don't follow up on?

That's correct, I'm not quoting those walls of text. I listed the post numbers, everyone is free to isolate you and look it up. Glad we have that covered.

also this really gets me thinking like how can anyone have any sort of read on bbmolla with their posts? like no offense but their posts to me are very null so I'm not sure I buy a scum read off the rip on bbmolla.

Huh. Wow, yeah, that's kind of ... unpredictable from my perspective.

if you think I'm scum why not try demonstrating it and be more aggressive?

What do you think I've been

doing

for the last page?

[ChicagoTypewriter]

I am currently voting ccgeek did you forget?

No,

but you're not trying to prove him scum or anything. You just voted and have does nothing to further the scumread.]

what do you mean no? are you just being combative? because I did vote him sir. I don't know if he is scum. I'm trying to sort him. he has a life he's going to bed he's going to post in the morning it's alright I can wait no rush.

The sentence 'I am currently voting ccgeek did you forget' better phrased, it is 'Did you forget I am currently voting ccgeek?', to which I answered no, which means (in this context) that I did not forget that. But now you seem to be indicating that you don't know if he's scum or not and I find it's kind of odd to put someone like CCGeek at elimination-2 at this point in the game.

What do you think I've been

doing

for the last page?

gun to my head? just trying to generate posts honestly, because I think if I never responded to you or continued to respond you you wouldn't have ever interacted with me. That's sort of how it's feeling.

No, I've been scumhunting you.

[ChicagoTypewriter]

gimme a second I'll quote them so everyone can see them and interact with them.

By all means, take your time now that I've lit a fire under you.

VOTE: Political Clout

[ChicagoTypewriter]

If clout your are actually a good role please claim...

Yes, seconded.
By the way, iamveryhappy, if you vote for Clout, you can put him in E-1 to put more pressure into forcing him to role claim.

[ChicagoTypewriter]

I think people telling Political Clout to claim was soo bad and pro-wolf that it has a slightly >rand chance to be someone openwolfing

I think that was happy/chicago

like not a "gotcha" in a newbie game but cant let that slide

My read on happy is everywhere: it was improving and weirdly the push on you made me think maybe they were town, as scum doesn't really want to stand out, but the rolefishing is super bad and like you said, some posts don't really make sense.

If I wasn't already voting Chicago I'd be voting them for the role fishing.

Let me clarify that post. I have a very strong scumread on Political Clout right now to the point that I'm trying to vote him off day 1 so I would like to put him to the point of E-1 and see what he does from there (which, as per my experience last game indicated, is when you either try claiming a power role or none at all.)

[ChicagoTypewriter]

Genuine question here - does that actually come off as scummy? I would think it's a valid play given my circumstances, but I'm not overly familiar with this site's meta.

[ChicagoTypewriter]

Overall: I wouldn't be surprised at a scumteam of BBmolla / Political Clout, though it's not a particularly strong possibility at this point in time. I would like to hear more from Bellaphant and BBmolla about their position and I'm very curious as to what the yet-unnamed newcomer will post first.

Who specifically would you like me to give you a read on? Your opening posts seems town.

Specifically, Political Clout, iamveryhappy; beyond that, who you are willing to vote out today.

[ChicagoTypewriter]

Typewriters ftw.

[ChicagoTypewriter]

CCG push on me was kinda poor but I have been really rly back on forth on whether that poor means wolfy or not. im not sure

Out of curiosity, are you scumreading anyone right now? I get not having strong reads for Day 1, but I looked over you in iso and you have a 'maybe' on CCGeek and PC. You're voting for CCGeek, but I think that's an RVS thing and not a genuine vote, correct me if I'm wrong.

[ChicagoTypewriter]

I like Chicagos posts, they rub as true to me and I liked their opening. I genuinely don’t really get the scumreads, can you summarize your scumread on them

to me in my reality it feels like he is pushing me without doing anything else. and when engaged with the why he doesn't really have an answer. initially I was saying he was a town read because of his reads on iamhappy he was thinking like me, but he said no that's wrong that's not what I was doing being combative imo to be combative but I digress. anyways I wanted to see what he was seeing in my posts so I engaged with him and asked him about his read what he thought was so jumpy he gives one answer then I ask again if that's really what he meant he gives a different one and then I ask again and then he again gives a different answer. So I bring up my posts that he has a problem with and ask him why he has a problem with them he ignores that post and doesn't answer when he checks back in then it seems like he has completely stopped developing his reads. so what about him exactly do you read as town? which posts rub you as true and why? Because he currently town reads heipizu for some reason for their good analytical reads????? as far back as idk when. when looking back when he made his reads list he didn't vote anyone either which to me is weird because as you know I like voting people. he only settled on me when I pushed him on his read that he has no justification for except for being idk "jumpy".

PC, I'm kind of at the point to where I'd like to stop scumreading you, but that's not possible if you're going to post this.

1. I

am

pressuring other players, which you would see if you iso me.
2. Pointing out that I think you had a bad early read of iamveryhappy is not 'combative to be combative'. What is being 'combative to be combative' is your refusal to understand what I mean by 'jumpy'.
3. Yup. I townread heipizhu4 because heipizhu4 is being analytical. I don't think analytical is a bad thing, I think it's a good thing. If you've got a good reason to think heipizhu4 is scum, then why don't you say it?
4. Yup. I'm not an early voter. I vote for two reasons - either its on people I want to eliminate or because I think the pressure by my vote will be useful.

[ChicagoTypewriter]

I am starting to get scum reads on iavh...and I am still waiting for his reads.

VOTE: iamveryhappy

I'm not ready to vote for iamveryhappy at this stage, but I can see where you're getting your scumread from.

[ChicagoTypewriter]

if you're town stop being lazy and 1 prove to me that you have pressured other players

Post 73 [CCGeek], 96[iamveryhappy/BBmolla], 100[Bellaphant], 123 [iamveryhappy - indirectly], 131 [BBmolla], 258[sheepsaysmeep].

I'd pressure McEndu, but he's fairly active; I like heipizhu4's read so I'm fine with his minimal interactions, I have no real need to pressure iamveryhappy. given his post track. I'd pressure CCGeek, but 203 was a good post and I understand the scum logic there.

how is heipizhu being analytical? like where???

74, 77, 166, 167, 192, 243.
And, if you'll notice, 74 and 77 are before my post 96.

This is what I mean. It's very weird, I somehow get a mild townread from your interactions with other players, but every time we talk to each other, this happens where I can't believe a word of what you say because here you're either objectively wrong or missing the points I've been making.

[ChicagoTypewriter]

everyone in this game should more often use [post] tags around post numbers, which link to the post

Huh. Thanks.

[ChicagoTypewriter]

tbh I was looking at the votes more, the wagon died quickly, the ppl ob there might be opportunitist scum

Yes, that's one of the reasons I think Political Clout is scum.

[ChicagoTypewriter]

You said you invited because you were worried about a hammer, then when challenged said it was because the wagon died?

I think iamveryhappy was talking about the wagon on CCGeek, continuing from the last post. There were three votes against him which really was not justified, it could be scum trying to get an early town elimination on Day 1.

[ChicagoTypewriter]

Or alternatively, me. Political Clout's been on both of them.

[ChicagoTypewriter]

good question. unfortunately, only I know the answer to this question, and I'm not planning to reveal if I am or not anytime soon.

scum
VOTE: CCGeek

sheep is town

Hmm. Quite the snap judgement you've got there. CCGeek, do you feel like claiming town?

Can you please describe how this is pressure? like what about it do you think pressures ccgeek? to me it just feels rhetorical. you have a total of 29 posts from you iso self admittedly 6 are supposed pressure on other people the rest is all yours truly so please explain. because in this post you want him to some reason again claim?????? what is it with you and wanting people to claim? I think everyone missed this.

Yup. That's pressure. Pressure is the simple application of force and I've applied it to a number of players. The difference, Political Clout, is not in me, it is in you. You are the one who keeps interacting with me and gives me all these juicy components to dissect. Hence why most of my comments are directed at you. If CCGeek replied, I'd have a back and forth with him. You keep replying to me.

That post to CCGeek, by the way, was trying to generate interaction and get a read based on reactions. Kind of like what I'm doing with you. Also, no one 'missed' it. I wasn't asking him to roleclaim, I was asking him whether or not he wanted to claim alignment, which is a little different.

you don't vote anyone because

4. Yup. I'm not an early voter. I vote for two reasons - either its on people I want to eliminate or because I think the pressure by my vote will be useful.

so to keep this in mind you don't want to eliminate me here and you don't think it'll be useful to vote me here at this moment why does it change?

Oh, no, you seem to be misunderstanding something. I

do

want to eliminate you here.

Also, I said 74 & 77. Not 76.

[ChicagoTypewriter]

so you have one response to one of the posts the rest can be considered points dropped? got it. I don't think i'm misunderstanding anything.

My interactions with you are proving increasing futile, as you seem to misinterpret everything I say. So, yes. One response. Minimal confusion.

you didn't vote when you gave your reads list only after interacting with me my question was what changed suddenly???

... Have you considered, perhaps, that

interacting with you

is what had me change my mind?

[ChicagoTypewriter]

Hi guys, working on a semi-os. What mafia power roles would you recommend against a 14p setup with roleblocker, doctor and jailkeeper as town prs?

I don't think I have anything resembling close enough the experience necessary to answer this. I think there's a forum on this website for that somewhere.

[ChicagoTypewriter]

Also, they haven't really responded to my issues/comments on their iso.

Ah, Bellaphant, are you sure? Sorry, I thought I addressed all yours points to me. Are you talking about 280?

[ChicagoTypewriter]

73 feels like an overreaction to both nolla and to geek, I've discussed how I hate their reads post, their interaction with clout around 'jumpy' was weird, I did like their post on happy, I don't gets tons out of the 1v1 with clout because it doesn't feel like either side massively progresses, 143 is better in isolation but then the claim weirdness happens.

I'd be more curious to see why people tr the slot

I guess I was expecting more of a response to this. My real issue is I really don't understand the pc stuff and when I read you and him walling at each other, I really struggle to see the 'point'. Maybe give me like the bullet pointed version

Honestly? It's kind of bad even from my perspective. Here's how it is.

• I thought PC was being a little scummy, so I called him out in my list of reads

• PC quotes me saying that he's scummy and responds that he isn't

• I find the way PC handles my accusation and response to be scummy

• GOTO 2

I get in other interactions he isn't scummy, and this may be town v town, but it kind of feels like he's going out of his way to misunderstand whatever I say or denying it. I accuse him of asking too many questions and he quotes the 20-some odd questions he's asked and claims they don't count. I quote myself going after other players and he claims they don't count. I say I like heipizhu4's posts and PC claims there's no way to think they're analytical. I don't know what to

do

with that.

[ChicagoTypewriter]

yes, but you clearly stated you only voted for people for a specific reason elimination or pressure I am asking which one of my posts made it so you wanted to apply pressure or vote me for elimination. let me into your mind. show me what you see. show me you have a town thought process. that's all I've ever been asking.

You know what? I can do that. I can explain why I scumread you. This is a reasonable request. But I can only open the door for you. If you want to understand me, make the attempt.

96 is where I posted my current reads in an effort to generate interaction. It had a slight scumread on you. You responded, but in 132 you misunderstood me. When I say 'jumpy', it is synonymous with the fact that I thought you were asking too many questions and not moving to enough follow up on those questions. They are

one and the same to me

. Do you have that?

There are also other issues - the scumread of iamveryhappy, your lack of follow-through or interactions with CCGeek, your seeming coordination with BBmolla at the time. You threatened to scumread me around this time as well. I found the collection of these to be worth pursuing. Given that, I decided to see what would happen if I voted for you and followed up. Which I did, in 149.

You responded poorly.

150 you just double-down and dump a huge post at me like it solves my problems, when if anything it makes it worse - makes it feel like you have something you need to prove desperately. You arbitrarily decide that my suspicion of CCGeek getting rushed early on is me being 'so worried'. You start pestering other players to go off on me constantly. For some ill-defined reason, you can't stand my townread of heipizhu4. And then you are constantly misquoting me or accusing me of things which aren't true (i.e. my lack of pressuring other players).

In the middle of this, by the way, you randomly mention that you would shoot iamveryhappy as sheriff in 291, which is very odd, because I don't think you had a strong scumread on him before that and you seemed to be trying to wagon me.

[ChicagoTypewriter]

Initially, my vote was to pressure. Very quickly, it became a vote to eliminate.

[ChicagoTypewriter]

calling it now chicago at end of day will not vote his scumread happy and will vote mcendu. I have future sight.

I mean, not if you're suddenly going to be

reasonable

about this. I'm reserving my right to put it back, but I think a show of good faith is in order. Fair warning - I don't feel like voting either iamveryhappy or McEndu - yet.

[ChicagoTypewriter]

UNVOTE:

[ChicagoTypewriter]

here
typewriter is less likely to be scum than clout for some reasons
1. using my points system typewriter is at +0.25 after post 342, around 0.75 higher than clout.
2. this slot is effectively pushing clout and using good points, like post 343, I like it
3. clout just looks more scummy here
should be E-2 here
VOTE: Political Clout

Hey, iamveryhappy, when you get a spare second, would you mind explaining to me how exactly your point system works and how I'm at +0.25 and Political Clout is at -0.75? Bullet points is fine, I don't need a whole lecture.

[ChicagoTypewriter]

do we have plur
or is it definite majority

There's a plurality, but unfortunately, it seems to be on yourself.

Are you able to respond to my reply to you, re 384?

[ChicagoTypewriter]

I feel like happy is sometimes too comfy to be wolf lol. such that he would be revealing a lot of info

like something that stood out was his offhand comment "ccgeek is playing better and more villagery than all of u lmao." and comments that ccgeek is cleared obv villa by vote patterns. I feel like if happy's wolf then he's tmi-revealed that ccgeek is town. etc

No I wouldn't agree with this at all. A valid scum strategy would be to call out a townie on Day 1 and then shoot them Night 1 (or Night 2, if neccesary). Then there is also the possibly, albeit unlikely one from my perspective, that iamveryhappy and CCGeek are scumpair.

[ChicagoTypewriter]

s!me would probably spew stuff like 'clout v typewriter is tvt' lol

Perhaps. But scum you might also see the advantage to having a tvt under the impression as svt. That way, Day 1 elimination is either me/PC, Day 2 elimination is the other. Two easy town eliminations, right off the bat, with minimal influence from scum you.

[ChicagoTypewriter]

s!me would probably spew stuff like 'clout v typewriter is tvt' lol

Perhaps. But scum you might also see the advantage to having a tvt under the impression as svt. That way, Day 1 elimination is either me/PC, Day 2 elimination is the other. Two easy town eliminations, right off the bat, with minimal influence from scum you.

that was a snub at sheep

I see. Are you able to explain your number breakdowns to me? You seem very convinced off them that PC is scum, and I'd like to know where you get it from.

[ChicagoTypewriter]

s!me would probably spew stuff like 'clout v typewriter is tvt' lol

Perhaps. But scum you might also see the advantage to having a tvt under the impression as svt. That way, Day 1 elimination is either me/PC, Day 2 elimination is the other. Two easy town eliminations, right off the bat, with minimal influence from scum you.

that was a snub at sheep

I see. Are you able to explain your number breakdowns to me? You seem very convinced off them that PC is scum, and I'd like to know where you get it from.

so
do I just give you a full ISO analysis of you? I did it in page around 14 and that already hurt my brain because of the many walls lol

Just Political Clout, please.

[ChicagoTypewriter]

we have about 1.5 days left I think happy/chicago should be taking firm stances on the wagons

My firm stance is that both of these aren't good Day 1 wagons, but I am busy in IRL stuff so I can't iso right now to determine if I actually want to vote for either of them.

[ChicagoTypewriter]

Also, @iamveryhappy, if you hammer McEndu and he turns out to be town, I will come after you. Only warning.

[ChicagoTypewriter]

Also, @iamveryhappy, if you hammer McEndu and he turns out to be town, I will come after you. Only warning.

this feels wolfy to me. more like agenda than an authentic read

Threatening to go after a player for hammering a town is wolfy? Huh, good to know.

[ChicagoTypewriter]

I think you might not have seen, but you've been asked a couple times btw why you refuse to vote for mcendu. can you explain really quickly off the top of your head, without ISO'ing?

Because, off the top of my head, I can't recall anything which made me actually scumread him, that's why. And because we have better targets than McEndu, honestly, I'd rather vote BBmolla for lurking than McEndu at his point.

[ChicagoTypewriter]

Quick post, b/c I don't really have time. I'll follow up later.

I find BBmolla to be a bit scummy now, I'd take eliminating him today and if town go after his readlist tomorrow. I'll elaborate in a bit.

[ChicagoTypewriter]

VOTE: bbmolla
I think mcendu might be a communication issue.

Well, half that and half the scum deciding to gaslight the poor man from my perspective.

Bella, I'm about sixty-seventy percent ready to hammer BBmolla; unless CT beats me to the punch. Want to make me a pitch while I go ISO him for a bit?

[ChicagoTypewriter]

@BBmolla Your townreads are fine, but your scumreads are garbage.

535 you seem to imply that McEndu is scummy for claiming VT at E-1, which is a spicy take to be certain. Unprovoked VT is scummy, but this isn't one.

485 you're reading heipizhu's mathematical breakdown as scummy, but a) his math checks and b) I don't think that's particularly scummy and it's doubling down on CCGeek, but you don't have a problem with CCGeek, do you?

287 you decide McEndu is scum and deserves to be wagonned with zero justification.


Overall, you've been lurking pretty hard, and even when you do post, you have this weird tunnel on heipizhu4 which expanded to include McEndu. You didn't decide they were scumteam in 534, you decided it in 287!

The only thing keeping me from voting for you right now is your townreads, but even still a mafia can acknowledge a town as town and kill them during the night.

Help me with your scumreads? And

actual

evidence, not just 'oh, McEndu seems scummy to me'.

[ChicagoTypewriter]

A pitch on molla? Like, it's mainly his position around this wagon/he's not here

So I suppose the adage of 'never attribute to malice what you can attribute to incompetence' does not fly here, then?

[ChicagoTypewriter]

I think mcendu is more actively wolfy and hasn't really sold me

I'm sorry, you've lost me completely here. Passively, yes. Where exactly has McEndu been actively wolfy?

[ChicagoTypewriter]

it's a crapshoot but it's a fine crapshoot on someone who hasn't been super villagery, there were worse outcomes

You're acting like we don't have better Day 1 options than 'someone who hasn't been super villagery'. Heck, BBmolla by those standards is worse.

[ChicagoTypewriter]

it's a crapshoot but it's a fine crapshoot on someone who hasn't been super villagery, there were worse outcomes

You're acting like we don't have better Day 1 options than 'someone who hasn't been super villagery'. Heck, BBmolla by those standards is worse.

ur quote is describing bbmolla

Hence my 496 of 'both these wagons are terrible'.

[ChicagoTypewriter]

it's a crapshoot but it's a fine crapshoot on someone who hasn't been super villagery, there were worse outcomes

You're acting like we don't have better Day 1 options than 'someone who hasn't been super villagery'. Heck, BBmolla by those standards is worse.

ur quote is describing bbmolla

Also McEndu doesn't have garbage scumreads. This is what I meant when I posted earlier. I'd rather vote BBmolla today; and if town, go after McEndu/heipizhu4 tomorrow. I'm not thrilled with either; I'd probably like to after iamveryhappy a little more or possibly Political Clout (though I think I might be over that), but it is what it is.

[ChicagoTypewriter]

I may dip good luck with the burden of the impactful vote

All the same, I'd like to hear from BBmolla at E-1 if possible, which is why I'm hesitating.

[ChicagoTypewriter]

We could vote happy?

Mmmm. Can we, though? You and me make two. Political Clout would probably join for three. Where would we get the other two from?

[ChicagoTypewriter]

ah yes
come cross with me, do it
also you just blindly sheep hepi making you more sus than me lol

You

do

realize that you aren't helping your case, right?

[ChicagoTypewriter]

You both just proved my point on you claiming VT by not understanding why I brought it up, that’s all I’ll say lmao

Please stop lurking and respond to my post 550.

[ChicagoTypewriter]

I’m Town PR

I don’t have time to post whatever you want but eliminate me if you want as long as you know the above and the people who pushed it through can’t claim otherwise. Wagon on me is awful.

McEndu/heip, if not then, then CCGeek has been quiet AF lately so pressure there. gl town, ignore TownChicago’s reads they’re bad.

Can’t be on phone rest of night, goodnight/goodbye

Oh, a vague PR, huh? Wow, that's not what a cornered scum would say at all.
I'm calling your bluff. Role

now

or I vote you in an hour.

[ChicagoTypewriter]

Typewriter is now asking for a more specific roleclaim here.

The only possible reason molla would state I am thinking of to refuse further roleclaiming would be to avoid drawing attention from nightkills...but claiming PR as town is enough to get nightkilled.

This

exactly.

[ChicagoTypewriter]

there are minor reasons to not claim specifically

Perhaps. But even still, I don't think they're enough. This is a very vague claim and it should have been made hours ago when BBmolla was at E-1. I don't like any of this, and besides, I did promise to vote in an hour. I don't make empty threats.

Alea iacta est

VOTE: BBmolla

[ChicagoTypewriter]

VOTE: Political Clout

You should have killed me when you had the chance. It's you and BBmolla. Evidence incoming, give me some time to rustle it up.
Do

not

vote sheepsaysmeep unless you want to claim pr.

[ChicagoTypewriter]

Okay, let me break this down.

Political Clout has gone after wagons since this game began. Not counting rvs; he was the third part of a premature wagon on CCGeek (which included BBmolla), which eventually graduated to a vote against me after going against me for a while and was the third vote in that

also

, granted BBmolla was not part of that, but it was never at E-1. From there, he tried a failed wagon against iamveryhappy; and switched to McEndu here (479), again with BBmolla. He was willing to join the wagon against iamveryhappy (586) and CCGeek(580); but at

no point

voted for BBmolla, despite not giving a great reason why not to (PC's reads had BBmolla as 3/4 most scummy player in the game(513)).

Also, at various points at this game, PC has suggested voting: CCGeek, iamveryhappy, McEndu, heipizhu4, ChicagoTypewriter, sheepsaysmeep. The only two he hasn't is Bellaphant (aside from rvs) and

BBmolla

.

In terms of partnership with BBmolla, it's very clearly evident - I pointed this out in the early game, see my (131) and PC's (140) where he essentially null-reads BBmolla despite the latter's lurking and going after me for scum reading BBmolla. He complains about me reading them as scumpair explicitly in (288), by the way.

The

only

defense PC has is the fact that he removed his vote from McEndu to prevent a hammer. And, honestly? Not much of a defense. Choosing

not

to hammer, yes. But that choice was never given to him, and in fact, PC may have withdrawn the vote to try and create a false sense of security to lure someone else into putting McEndu at E-1. PC has never had access to a hammer that wasn't BBmolla. To be fair, neither did sheepsaysmeep, but he at least chose not to join either the ChicagoTypewriter or the Political Clout wagons to put either of them at E-1.

Arguably, I should have been a target for last night's elimination, because I'm obviously town-aligned. But I

wasn't

. Why? Well, I can't think of a reason for sheepsaysmeep, but for Political Clout? I very deliberately unvoted him on Day 1 and said I no longer suspected him of being scum-aligned - so why would he eliminate me when I could be an ally?

[ChicagoTypewriter]

I'm going to do an ISO on BBmolla to see if it jives with this, give me a few minutes.

[ChicagoTypewriter]

Okay, so it kind of jives. BBmolla lurked, but there's a few bits of corroboration. Mostly it's BBmolla describing PC as 'limbaity'(457), then doubling down in 518 and calling PC town.

BBmolla's interactions with sheepsaysmeep is very limited, it's an rvs post calling him town; and claiming the PCvsheepsaysmeep fight was tvt all the back in 79, so... either way there.

But I'm not doing this based of BBmolla, I'm doing this based off Political Clout.

[ChicagoTypewriter]

me removing the vote from mcendu is the very reason molla is dead

Objectively wrong. BBmolla is dead because five people voted for him, of which

you are not one of them despite having the oppurtunity.

if I am scum it is borderline throwing the game as scum and not letting happy hammer that is a stone cold fact.

...Except you didn't do that. I did. I got happy off McEndu's back while your vote was

still

there. And it's all meaningless because you might have been doing that to

get

happy to vote. It no proof whatsoever, unless you declined to opportunity to hammer McEndu and hammered BBmolla, which you didn't do. Didn't you think BBmolla was suspicious? Why wouldn't you vote for them?

[ChicagoTypewriter]

just wow the logic the sheer deductions made here too scum to be scum. there it is folks. someone hammer get me the hell out of here.

He's kind of right, in a way. If sheepsaysmeep and BBmolla were scumpair, than its a very odd play for BBmolla (the goon) to claim vague pr; only for sheepsaysmeep to point out that it's tactically advantageous for a mafia goon to claim a specific pr to bait the counterclaim if BBmolla was going to be eliminated once he false claimed pr. I feel like a coordinating mafia pair would have had a better strategy and this just seems like sheepsaysmeep defending someone who he thinks is town-aligned.

[ChicagoTypewriter]

Also, for the record, defending a vague-claim pr is not a scum move.

[ChicagoTypewriter]

I'm here just not responding and gonna wait and see what others say. nothing I say will convince you so what's the point in engaging with you?

I'll take the vote off if you can answer two questions, how about that?
First: Why didn't you vote BBmolla for E-1 if you found him suspicious?

[ChicagoTypewriter]

I'd appreciate it if anyone catches me up to the current wagonstate.

I have a post about PC's prior wagons(640). In terms of current, it's currently me, sheepsaysmeep, and McEndu on PC; PC is on sheepsaysmeep.
McEndu formerly was on sheepsaysmeep; he switched to PC.

[ChicagoTypewriter]

wait I think the previous VC is malfunctioning, is PC at E-2 or E-1?

E-1, McEndu has voted since. You'd hammer.

[ChicagoTypewriter]

just think the general thread is maybe too un-paranoid

Eh. Maybe. But I'm also a believer of Occam's Razor - simplest solution is usually the correct one.

never lim ChicagoTypewriter in this game imo

Eh. I'm probably going to die tonight if we mislim the scum. I'm not too concerned about showing up on CCGeek's list, though it's kind of weird that I'm there at all.

[ChicagoTypewriter]

Okay, well the good news is that the Mafia remaining is a Mafia Roleblocker and therefore is completely useless against us army of Vanilla Townies. The bad news is that we're dealing with someone who seemed to have cold-read both town PRs.

[ChicagoTypewriter]

Paradoxically, I think the scum is too good to be CCGeek - he's been lurking too long. So my short list is now sheepsaysmeep and Bellaphant. I'm gonna iso BBmolla again to see what I can discern.

[ChicagoTypewriter]

heipizhu might have been roleblocked - in fact, likely was.

[ChicagoTypewriter]

That's not how statistics and probability work.

[ChicagoTypewriter]

I'd really appreciate it if you and Chicago could ask me some questions:) especially for sorting Chicago: I can't hold down a firm read on him and I feel like he's kinda under the radar, but sheep believes them to be town (although sheep says maybe not for good reasons)

My sense of you is kind of 'under the radar' right now, tbh. You could have voted for BBmolla on Day 1 with the assumption that a vague PR claim could dodge the hammer, but having you set it up. But that's not my question for you, my question for you is why didn't you do anything Day 2?

[ChicagoTypewriter]

at the end of day 1 I gave BBMolla a logical out that prob wouldve gotten mcendu limmed over molla successfully, and Chicago was like NOPE BAM and didnt even give people a chance to respond to what I was saying before flipping molla + clearing mcendu

So, we seemed to be agreed that McEndu is not, in fact, scum?

[ChicagoTypewriter]

But well, I have my reasons apart from just the Scumputer method. You see, I HELPED heip build the BBmolla wagon, and I dipped afterwards, which I think I've been read as scum for. I personally think that this is a little bit garbage, because if BBmolla was bussed, he was bussed later on during the wagon. It's IMPOSSIBLE that scum votes for scum on a lynchwagon in this setup and doesn't unvote to prevent hammer or remotely even show up to talk. It's the least possible form of bussing in this setup.

Okay, you're going to need to explain why it's 'IMPOSSIBLE' for this to occur. Like, in great detail. Sure, I could have hammered BBmolla to buy myself some sweet towncred; it's a viable strategy. In theory, anyway. It makes

actually

little sense if you stop to think about it for a few minutes because of the circumstances involved, but the theory is sound.

So, why couldn't you, perchance, be a mafia who voted for BBmolla early on when you believed the wagon was going nowhere and realized too late that it was a serious wagon, leaving you with the choice to either keep the vote and hope the hammer doesn't fall or jump out and risk the attention. And don't try the line of 'if I was scum, I would have hammered McEndu' - if you had jumped wagons to hammer a townie, it's basically a guaranteed Day 2 elimination, especially considering the power role structure.

[ChicagoTypewriter]

Hmm. Almost useful. A trifecta of townies would guarantee victory at this point, but I don't think we have that now.

[ChicagoTypewriter]

?? The day two that took....less than two days? This is your best question?

You're complaining an awful lot for someone who isn't answering it.

[ChicagoTypewriter]

Just curious.

[ChicagoTypewriter]

After thinking about it, Typewriter's hammer on BBmolla looks quite close to a quickhammer.

Okay, but it's literally not, BBmolla was at E-1 for I think about 10 hours at that point.

Molla, in their claim post, was arguably going to sleep by that time:

Can’t be on phone rest of night, goodnight/goodbye

In 20 minutes, Typewriter announced to hammer in one hour, which I think gives Molla practically no time to respond:

Role

now

or I vote you in an hour.

@ChicagoTypewriter Why did you made the hammer timer so short?

If he went to sleep, it was either hammer or don't; as the D1 deadline was coming up in hours. So it really only mattered if he was lying and was staying up to watch, and if so, I needed maximum pressure. An hour was, I felt, a reasonable compromise between time and pressure.

Why would I then, perchance, ask the general populace to vote BBmolla with me? And attempt to redirect the major wagon at the time to him while defending the major wagon? You can call this a WIFOM but it's clearly suboptimal for scum to lose a partner D1 in this setup, and therefore, scum really doesn't want to bus until their partner's elimination seems inevitable.

You are correct. Given 455, it is unlikely that you are scum. I do not disagree, but the devil's advocate must be met. This is the same reason I presume you are all trying to figure out if I am scum.

With that information in mind, I visit your ISO, only to find something that's very

very

interesting.

You create a theory that Political Clout, someone we now know is Town, is scum, partnered with BBmolla. (96)

Then, you go about subtly drawing more attention to the fact that they can be partnered, with a one-liner. (131) A very scummy tactic in itself.

And then you spend a better half of the Day 1v1ing the PC slot, in hopes that it be quickly limmed. What this reads as is setting up a method of being able to TR molla smoothly in-thread, as your (earlygame) Scumread of molla dependant on PC!scum could be converted into a Townread and seem pretty natural in the process.

You even try to rush the lim, as seen in 191.

Also about 497, I do have to agree with sheep in 499. You're setting up an unconditional method to tunnel someone D2, someone who had already softed a Power Role TWICE in his ISO by this point.

I think of this entire alive PL, the Clems kill makes sense only from YOU, CT.

Anyways, moving back to the D1 ISO, I also see a part where despite after hard reading Molla as scum and voting him, you STILL try to explore alternate CFD possibilities (Clems). Why is that, huh? Surely not only for the lolz.

I do, however, agree with CT at the post of Molla's hammer.

Alea iacta est

, indeed.

Anyways, I'm really not being sold on the sheep vote today. I need more evidence for other people in this thread to be scum for me to change my mind.

There are a few problems with this chain of logic. First and foremost, the plan of 'pair BBmolla & PC, then have PC be townie and therefore BBmolla be townread' is simply too complicated to be considered a good plan - too many moving parts and too many elements of luck. Simply painting PC in a negative light for a later lim would have sufficed. Second, the iamveryhappy kill (I think that Clems?) makes sense for

anyone

who managed to soft read the PR. Third, I

never

hard read BBmolla as scum, I only soft-read him. The flipping point for me was the empty bluff of BBmolla's vague PR.

[ChicagoTypewriter]

Also, @CCGeek, why are you voting me? Please tell me it's not the scumputer.

[ChicagoTypewriter]

I am just going to put this out here - the raw numbers at this point says to eliminate sheepsaysmeep. He's the only remaining player who wasn't on the BBmolla wagon and he tried to eliminate Political Clout (though wasn't part of the final four voters). He tried for McEndu, so has no defense that he didn't hammer; and tried to defend BBmolla.

[ChicagoTypewriter]

namely iavh being killed immediately bugged me because he was off-wagon. I think I wouldnt have killed there just because as a principles thing ive learned you kill on-wagon in that situation lolol but I never really understood it enough

I dont kill iavh there, I probably kill Chicago cuz ive been consistently thinking he's near-clear. one thing ive said about this already is I think ccgeek makes sense as someone who wouldnt kill Chicago cuz he's been pushing Chicago as more limmable than anyone else has

This. This has been bothering me for a while - I was a clear choice to eliminate for Night 1, and there's two possibilities as to why I wasn't eliminated: either the scum had a good PR read on someone else (likely)

and/or

the scum would follow up with townreading me and saying 'if I was scum, I would have nightkilled CT. Obviously it's the one who thinks that CT can be limmed during the day who's the real scum.'

[ChicagoTypewriter]

there's two possibilities as to why I wasn't eliminated

Why would you assume that you'd be eliminated? That is what I don't understand. Did you explain this earlier somewhere? I probably missed it. But yes, surely, the person who dropped the hammer on D1 scum is beneficial to keep alive for scum for bus-framing reasons?

Only on the assumption I didn't have a power role. But even then, bus-framing is a secondary option at best - the better option is to have a scummy player around.

[ChicagoTypewriter]

...the raw numbers at this point says to eliminate sheepsaysmeep...and he tried to eliminate Political Clout (though wasn't part of the final four voters).

Except you were -- with a very detailed case against Political Clout -- without any doubt the driver of the Clout wagon. I would have sticked to sheep without your case. Sheep was very passive about that wagon.

Well, yes and no. Certainly I was the driver behind the wagon, but I actually didn't start the wagon - sheepsaysmeep did. My post 640 laid out the compelling case to wagon, but the first person to vote for PC was sheepsaysmeep in 627, mentioning in 639 that:

I just thought everyone has something that looks obviously good from bbmolla except him lol

Sheep only became passive about the wagon after I dumped my reasons into the mix, eventually backing out at 656 and 658.

[ChicagoTypewriter]

This is the basic nightkill case for me. Based on my Day 1 actions (specifically the risky hammer of BBmolla and subsequent lim), there are two possibilities of my alignment, either 1) town-aligned or 2) Mafia who for some unknown reason pulled an unnecessary bus-for-towncred; of which the former is almost guaranteed. Coming into D2, it's not a mistake to say I had the strongest town-read in the game.

Mafia have two elimination priorities - PRs and confirmed townies. Given that the latter was a risk without any kind of read (28.6%) and I was a definitive; it makes me a very desirable target unless the mafia had a good read on PRs.

[ChicagoTypewriter]

ded chat

Well, I kind of want to grill sheepsaysmeep right now, but he's V/LA, so not much I can do.

[ChicagoTypewriter]

Well, both town PRs have been killed and I think most of the opinions of other players are pretty solidly locked down at this point, so we're kind of left with the 'try to lim the scum and go to elo if it fails' part of the game.

[ChicagoTypewriter]

This is the basic nightkill case for me. Based on my Day 1 actions (specifically the risky hammer of BBmolla and subsequent lim), there are two possibilities of my alignment, either 1) town-aligned or 2) Mafia who for some unknown reason pulled an unnecessary bus-for-towncred; of which the former is almost guaranteed. Coming into D2, it's not a mistake to say I had the strongest town-read in the game.

Mafia have two elimination priorities - PRs and confirmed townies. Given that the latter was a risk without any kind of read (28.6%) and I was a definitive; it makes me a very desirable target unless the mafia had a good read on PRs.

I still feel like you are saying you are confirmed here/the most strong tr but that doesn't match with my reality. Please explain /why/you think this, without mentioning the hammer which is Nia at this point.

I don't think I understand what you're trying to even ask me at this point. The only way, right now, to determine town/scum is to look over what players have done. You cannot simply take a compelling piece of evidence and wholly ignore it. If you wish to recontextualize it and say that the hammer was bus-for-towncred, by all means - that is your prerogative and you must consider all my other actions in that light, especially my D2 actions and ask yourself if they make sense.

If you wish to ignore it entirely, then you aren't playing wisely. Please don't ignore it.

[ChicagoTypewriter]

I would list is something like:
ChicagoTypewriter
McEndu
CCGeek
Bellaphant
sheepsaysmeep
right now.

[ChicagoTypewriter]

Honestly, I'd vote sheepsaysmeep, but I want him back before I go after him.

[ChicagoTypewriter]

Eh, I think it's either sheep or Chicago, sheep thinks it's ccgeek, you think sheep Ans I'm not sure what CT wants?

sheepsaysmeep, then Bellaphant. Not sure how I've been unclear on this.

[ChicagoTypewriter]

if I die. please do not just follow my guess in f3

I'll take it under advisement if necessary, but I'm just following the dictates of Occam's Razor here.

VOTE: sheepsaysmeep

[ChicagoTypewriter]

We should eliminate someone today, yes.

[ChicagoTypewriter]

Like, I'd much rather lim Chicago over anyone.

This is why I scumread you, by the way.

[ChicagoTypewriter]

Yes.
Also, yes.

[ChicagoTypewriter]

If I was scum, why would I stop iamveryhappy from hammering McEndu on D1?

[ChicagoTypewriter]

If you were town, wouldn't you be talking about anything else but the day one lim?

P-edit k, it felt fine at first but then I tin-hatted.

My Day 2 was kind of a tunnel of someone who was town, so... no, actually.
I mean, it was justified, so there's that.

[ChicagoTypewriter]

I'm still on and... interesting wagons

It's what we got.

[ChicagoTypewriter]

Okay, I'll go first, then. I'm still putting together my ISOs of the two of you, but I'm just going to crack open BBmolla's ISO for the table.

So, both of you were joke voted by BBmolla, Bellaphant in the opening post 14, and CCGeek in the subsequent post 69.

This is the first useful post I could find.

Scum is in CCGeek, Political Clout, heipizhu4, McEndu, everyone else seems town

UNVOTE:
VOTE: heipizhu4

BBmolla keeps the vote on heipizhu4 until he swaps to McEndu in 327. Notably, he fights with CCGeek about it in 458 and his last post before getting limmed he mentions that CCGeek needs to be pressured (600).

His interaction with Bellaphant is kind of pathetic. This is the most important bit:

Bella is town

Bella is town

Why?

PC seems limbaity town, CCG seems lazy but wagonomicsd around them makes me think town.

...which doesn't actually address the point, but its the closest I could find.

CCGeek is a little more, like I quoted above.

McEndu/heip, if not then, then CCGeek has been quiet AF lately so pressure there. gl town, ignore TownChicago’s reads they’re bad.

And then there's me. Might as well say this - BBmolla townreads me

hard

.

Who specifically would you like me to give you a read on? Your opening posts seems town.

guys this is town so if that wagon could not exist that'd be great

[ChicagoTypewriter]

because it feels we have been set up into this ELo on purpose

Could you clarify this?

[ChicagoTypewriter]

Like, yesterday I started off sr-ing sheep and Chicago and then sheep was obv!town and I had to hammer because we were about to no lim.

I'm sorry, I don't understand this at all. I voted for sheepsaysmeep because I scumread him. Why would you vote for a player that you think is town and invite the mislim?

[ChicagoTypewriter]

because it feels we have been set up into this ELo on purpose

Could you clarify this?

Because all of us are suspicious of each other.

Ah, but that's the interesting thing, isn't it? I'm suspicious of the both of you, certainly. You're suspicious of both myself and Bella. Bella, on the other hand, isn't suspicious of you; but is suspicious of me.

Let me rifle through Bella's iso for a bit and show you what I'm currently puzzling over. First, there's you:

Ccgeek is probs town for his test of me

Also, ccgeek is hard town.

Geek's nearly back to being my strongest tr,

I am 99.9% sure mcendu is town and 90% sure geek is.

Then there's me:

VOTE: Chicago
Get a competing wagon going

I'd really appreciate it if you and Chicago could ask me some questions:) especially for sorting Chicago: I can't hold down a firm read on him and I feel like he's kinda under the radar, but sheep believes them to be town (although sheep says maybe not for good reasons)

Like, I'd much rather lim Chicago over anyone.

Bellaphant has a very hard town read on you, historically anyway, and has fluctuated between scum->null->scum for me. Granted, that's just a piece of evidence - his refusal to vote for me doesn't indicate much now that we're in elo.

Given this, though, the hypothetical Scum!Bellaphant has a very clear D3 play - eliminate me as the day and then nk McEndu; leaving with Bellaphant, sheepsaysmeep, and CCGeek; then hope for a sheepsaysmeep elimination during D4. However, when push came to shove, Bellaphant opted to eliminate sheepsaysmeep.

[ChicagoTypewriter]

Okay, I've done an ISO on CCGeek for Day 1. I'm moving through this slowly, but surely.

Early D1 sees him go after sheepsaysmeep and Political Clout; both of which I sympathize with as they were scum-readable at the time. 359 is interesting to me - instead of choosing to join the scumwagon for the townie Political Clout, CCGeek declines. Scum!CCGeek would be well served to post this up to E-1, hope for the elimination and then try to turn it around on me D2 (or iamveryhappy, etc.)

447 is the BBmolla wagon. In fact, he's the second to join. 455 is a McEndu ISO and a spirited defense for him, later revealed in 660 to imply that McEndu is a soft-read pr. This would later be revealed

not

to be the case, but in the event that Scum!CCGeek believed McEndu to be pr; the optimal move would be to nk McEndu. (Though, of course, WIFOM)

By contrast, Bellaphant's D1 doesn't look as good - except for the part where he slid off the E-1 vote for McEndu and went to put BBmolla at E-1 instead. The problem is that Bellaphant may not have been present during my hour-long countdown at the end of Day 1 - so perhaps he voted for BBmolla hoping a vague pr claim could delay a day and get McEndu anyway, only for the plan to backfire.

[ChicagoTypewriter]

slight agree on that one, if he really had to bring out a comparison, why flesh out only one side of the balance? feels slightly pockety to me.

I was only doing your ISO for Day 1, I just wanted the contrast.

[ChicagoTypewriter]

No lim is terrible.. honestly, town you would've been better to self hammer than let it get to no lim.

Again, not how probability works.
If there are 5 players, the odds of any given player being scum is 20%.
If there are 4 players, the odds of any given player being scum is 25%.
If there are 3 players, the odds of any given player being scum is 33%.
If there are 4 players and you know one is town, the odds of any given player who isn't town being scum is 33%.
If there are 4 players and you know two is town, the odds of any given player who isn't town being scum is 50%.
You should have not eliminated and hoped that sheepsaysmeep wouldn't be nk (likely McEndu would still be targeted) and then tried to move forward from there. Your odds of success would be the same. Killing someone you self-describe as 'obv!town' does nothing to increase the town's ability to win.

[ChicagoTypewriter]

Remember, with four remaining players, there's still the outcome of a no lim during the day to force Elo.

[ChicagoTypewriter]

I don't understand how I'm the big 'null read' when I feel me and sheep were the only ones solving yesterday.

Bellaphant, you've been nothing but a null read to me basically this whole game. Case in point, you've spent a large part of the game scum reading me and hard town reading CCGeek, so the elo kind of feels like it should be an easy choice for you, but you haven't even touched that or discussed it when I brought it up.
I get why you haven't voted, but I don't get why you don't seem to be doing anything about that currently in pressuring me or talking to CCGeek about it, or anything like that. I'm going to go through your ISO late tonight and post it.

[ChicagoTypewriter]

? Ccgeek literally said the same thing as me and it's fine when he says it?

CCGeek never said self-elimination was preferable, so you get called out. It's partially directed at CCGeek too, don't take it personally.

Also, when I give you stuff, you don't follow up; I asked you to discuss your sr on me and it was literally 'you weren't here when we speed-limmed town in 36 hours ' and that I scum read you.

That was kind of the extent of my scum read on you. My entire scum-read on you is less a negative read and more the lack of a positive one. Your Day 1 interaction was nothing particularly standout except for a last-minute switch, your Day 2 is ... yeah. That. I don't particularly like your Day 3 either seeing as how you spent it all scum reading me.

Also, I keep getting this kind of LAMIST vibe from your 'come question me' approach to being townread.

I clearly just raised an issue with your position on me getting of endu, but you didn't pick up on it, instead talking about me 'not doing anything ' again: which is patently false. You are painting a picture like I havent been here or been active, which is just ridiculous

What, the 'chigacos 'bella moved onto the scum wagon By.... accident?' post is very bad' counter? Okay. I get how you don't like it because it's accusing you of being scum. Although its less an 'accident' and more of a 'calculated risk'. You can tell me I'm wrong if you want - that you were around during that hour countdown I had and chose not to post anything.

Also, I'm not talking about your 'not doing anything' now, it's more of a 'not doing anything on Day 2' which is kind of textbook scum behavior if two town-aligned roles are scumreading each other (sheep vs PC) and it's not like you can do anything about it now.

Finally, this:

I have more posts than you and we both have twice what geek has and yet you've more than once taken swipes at me for what feels like activity reasons??

I don't like CCGeek's lack of interaction, but its a very consistent lack of interaction and when he posts he tends to wall. Honestly, most of your posts are so short I feel like your word count is actually behind CCGeek, so is that really a leg to stand on for you?

[ChicagoTypewriter]

Bellaphant's Day 1 ISO:

There's a bit of reactivity early on, but I don't really like anything concrete from Bellaphant until 163, which is the take on me versus PC as possibly tvt, but maybe not. Bellaphant asks heipizhu4 and McEndu for reads, before deciding to wagon me in 184, not a c ompletely unreasonable action. The wagon dies, though.

Also, I found yet another post on CCGeek being town read. Just thought I put this out here.

Geek's town, 100%

Bellaphant unvotes at 340, and moves onto McEndu (which technically started at 337, but the vote came at 362 for McEndu at E-1. 421 he attempts to get to E-1 on the McEndu wagon. 533 Bellaphant unvotes off the wagon, and in 548, Bellaphant puts BBmolla at E-1. Offhandedly offers to start up a iamveryhappy wagon, goes nowhere. Doesn't vote for iamveryhappy, which is kind of interesting - Scum!Bellaphant might want to vote there to draw off the heat from BBmolla and try to start a last minute wagon on iamveryhappy.

[ChicagoTypewriter]

So, more ISOs. (Why am I the only one doing this?)

Bellaphant - Day 2:

It is no secret I think Bellaphant was absent Day 2. There are two posts - 661, which says nothing, and 672. 672 makes the following six points - if BBmolla was bussed it was early or late, the scum is probably on McEndu, sheep may be scum, PC is interesting, CCGeek's a tr, McEndu is town.

The first is undoubtedly correct, we now know that BBmolla was bussed and the possibility is a late bus (either myself or Bellaphant) or an early bus (CCGeek). We also know the scum wasn't on McEndu (though it's a reasonable guess it was.) Though, it should be noted that the two of those points cover nearly all players. Aside from that, nothing of note, really. Kind of shame.

CCGeek - Day 2.


CCGeek reveals that he read McEndu as a soft pr. CCGeek admits that he hasn't been fully following the game in 686. He hadn't considered PC at all to eliminate. (makes sense if town, odd if scum; though could be lying.) Notes that sheep may be an easy miselimination (which explains the lack of Day 3 vote). Hammers in 702 - kind of an early hammer, honestly.

Further analysis - voting PC isn't scummy to me, especially given the mountain of evidence I stacked up and led the wagon with, so I'm not holding the hammer itself against CCGeek - I may hold the timing though. On the other hand, it's not like I unvoted at E-1, so it'd be a bit hypocritical of me to pressure because of that.

[ChicagoTypewriter]

Talking to you is like talking to a wall. Like, if you are town you are handing this to geek on a plate because you won't adapt to the information.

Interesting accusation. I'm the only one actually parsing through information, though.

Yesterday, me, sheep and geek /all/ said an elimination would be preferable to no lim. You then used it as a point to attack me? Sheep said a self vote was preferable, and sheep was town.

sheepsaysmeep is wrong, too. In fact, it was one of reasons I kept my vote on sheep - the willingness to self-vote seemed too over-the-top to me.

You won't find anything positive in my iso if you go into it expecting to only see bad stuff. Read the interactions with sheep yesterday and tell me that isn't solving?

Come ask me questions is just what I say. It's nai, but like...you didn't do it .

I haven't run your Day 3 iso yet; and I think I've been pretty objective so far as to the analysis I've done so far. And if you want a question, here's one - what have you done that makes me want to town read you?

You can't give me a reason /why/ I unvoted a mislim that was about to happen and voted my 'buddy': just like with the numbers for no limming yesterday, there's no why.

More on this in a dedicated post.

I'm not talking about day two anymore: it was 36 hours and around 15 of them were overnight for me.

That's fine. I'm not holding it against you. Much.

If you are town, look again. If you are scum, it certainly explains why you have no /why/ for any of your points against me: nothing about your pushes on me feel natural or like they have a point behind them. You really committed to the pc push and I'm pretty convinced it was because he was on to you day one.

Odd defense, and not even wholly accurate. I have a lot of good points against you. Also, PC's opening on Day 2 was against sheepsaysmeep, so why would I go for the PC push when I could just let two towns fight each and then scumread the surviving one as town?

[ChicagoTypewriter]

You can't give me a reason /why/ I unvoted a mislim that was about to happen and voted my 'buddy': just like with the numbers for no limming yesterday, there's no why.

... I mean, I can. You just mocked it the last time I gave it. Which you shouldn't have done, by the way, because now I'm looking at it again and I'm realizing something very important. Let's take a look, shall we?

First step: The mislim was dead when you unvoted, so don't even bother trying to claim you unvoted a mislim. McEndu had four votes at one point, but (and I'm just realizing this now, shame on me) - you unvoted when he was at 3 votes.

Political Clout

unvoted first, but refused to hammer BBmolla, which is why I suspected him. But he did it first at 509, whereas yours came at 533. Part of what killed the wagon is CCGeek's 455 - and sure, I get it's good play for scum to counter wagon the town wagon, even on the scum, to look good. But that was a dedicated attempt to try and just anti-wagon McEndu and that is a terrible play for a scum.


Second step: You voted a few moments later at 548, but at that point, I think that it was very likely BBmolla gets eliminated regardless of whether you voted for him or not - sheepsaysmeep is neutral on these wagons as well and certainly wouldn't have hammered, but might have taken a position as the E-1 slot, or alternatively PC would have. You are very neutral about this wagon (551,551) in these posts. Also, as I've said before, this is a calculated gamble on your part - hammering is a risky move, after all and with a vague PR claim, maybe BBmolla survives the day anyway and people jump to the iamveryhappy wagon you proposed (570). But even if we don't assume that, what you did is simply a bus-for-town cred. That's the why. The truth is, BBmolla was more than likely to be eliminated, and you just salvaged the best of a bad situation.

Is that not a reasonable reason?

[ChicagoTypewriter]

Also, re: my read on geek, again, you aren't respondong to what I'm saying. I do, basically, tr geek, but I feel like you are missing the 'circumstantial'' evidence against him that even he is aware of, that's making me paranoid. I've spoken about it: I feel like me and sheep were the only people to point it out.

I can't really find evidence of you doing this, except for this one quote below.

Honestly I think the hiep pr was just luck? I think it's the iavh kill that makes me Sus of geek but it could be wifom.

I meant yesterdaysnflash wagon! I am well aware that I pushed for a flash wagon on happy, I found the dude fairly anti!town which makes the kill weirder?

@CCGeek: Where are you at, right now?

[ChicagoTypewriter]

Okay, last batch of ISOs, the Day 3 iso.

CCGeek: Opens with the scumputer and votes me. This is ... super weird. I don't even know if I can categorize this as town or scum. He then pulls a bus-for-towncred accusation on me, and this turns into a discussion, where CCGeek admits that I have a point and unvotes from me based on my logic. That's definitely town-like behavior, but a hypothetical scum!CCGeek can afford town-like behavior if the elimination pool is between myself and sheepsaysmeep. CCGeek reads the writing on the wall if sheepsaysmeep flips green and predicts the elo, noting he's unsure how to solve it, which is consistent with his prior actions. Ends up not voting at all, because he missed Bellaphant's hammer.

Analysis: No hammer this time around, and hypothetical scum!CCGeek could have pulled one on me (while appearing consistent) to go into elo with Bellaphant and sheepsaysmeep. Could have, but likely wouldn't - Bellaphant supports tr sheepsaysmeep and double-hammering green in a row isn't great scum play, even if sheepsaysmeep has more of a scumread argument (re: voting history, why I voted for him D3 alongside McEndu.)

Bellaphant: Initially for sheepsaysmeep elimination. Is annoyed that everyone has default reading them as 'compromise lim pool'. Attempts to get reads. All of this isn't scummy actions. However, Bellaphant claims they wouldn't have bussed BBmolla and the McEndu wagon would have happened if they stayed on. This is false, see my previous post about it, but this doesn't mean scum, it would be town trying to prove they're town with a bit of massaging of the facts. Notes that they found iamveryhappy to be anti!town, thus making the kill weird, but 1) the assumption was that it was off a soft-read for pr and 2) WIFOM.

Notes at 822 that I'm the preferred lim because of my lack of interaction and argument with CCGeek. (Note: CCGeek does not scumread after this, only Bellaphant does.) Votes me at 832 a literal minute after sheepsaysmeep's vote at 830. Hammers in 858 under the justification that 'mislim>no lim' (which is true, as long as it isn't yourself, by the way.

Analysis: Bellaphant finds my elimination preferable to sheepsaysmeep, but doesn't give a reason why they switch their read from sheepsaysmeep to me (or why they never voted sheepsaysmeep). Does this make sense for scum!Bellaphant? Absolutely, sheepsaysmeep is a much scummier target for CCGeek than me. Does this make sense for town!Bellaphant? Arguably, yes - its possible that they scumread me.

Overall: Day 3 is, unsurprisingly a wash. There's no action which is unmistakably scum and every move is WIFOM-able given the circumstances.

[ChicagoTypewriter]

How's the read going?

Mine's pretty much done. I can ISO Day 4, but I don't think there's going to be anything super useful there.

How's your reads going?

[ChicagoTypewriter]

I successfully went through Day 1

Won't have the time to finish up my wall today, will do it and post tomorrow tho.

Paranoia has been acting up.

Okay, that's good. Take your time, (and I really don't mean to rush you), but keep in mind we have 25 hours to vote; and if we don't the mafia wins by default.

[ChicagoTypewriter]

By the way, @Bellaphant, you're getting voting by me in about eighteen hours if you don't start interacting with the endgame state. Reacting to my reads is fine, but you've done nothing by yourself for solving this game state. If you just want to discuss your my scum read on you, then please start with my assertion that you didn't actually unvote a mislim that was about to happen.

Granted, CCGeek's not much better when it comes to posting analysis of prior days, but he at least mentioned that he's going through ISOs.

[ChicagoTypewriter]

Alright, Bellaphant, I gave you your time. 18 hours is plenty, and we need to get this day moving before time is up.

Here are my points:

• Bellaphant lied about unvoting from a town wagon about to lim, the Day 1 McEndu wagon was at E-2 when Bellaphant unvoted and was losing steam

• CCGeek was the largest proponent against the McEndu wagon when it first started gathering steam and went directly for BBmolla

• Bellaphant's Day 2 inactivity is scum-like behavior (albeit not a great modifier, given how short the Day was so is insufficient to condemn on its own)

• CCGeek's most scum-like action is the hammer on Day 2 of Political Clout, though personally I feel this was a justified hammer.

• Bellaphant's wagon switch on Day 3 with insufficient explanation, though any further reads are WIFOM

• Bellaphant's Day 4 activity is reactive activity and almost nothing of active scumreading or analysis, and we currently have under 10 hours left.

In short succinct summation - once again,

alea iacta est

.
VOTE: Bellaphant

[ChicagoTypewriter]

where in god's name is bella tho

Legitimately no idea. Possibly lurking in the hopes the vote doesn't go through today, though I would have thought my vote would have drawn them out.

Also, nice to see that I was right and you aren't scum.

[ChicagoTypewriter]

holy shit someone talk to me i feel like I'm going insane staring at 4 open tabs

Okay, what's up?

[ChicagoTypewriter]

i am this close to putting a lid on the case and saying it's bella but somewhere it's like: should I? There is so much casual offhandedness scum that is in bella's posts in context to the rest of the game, but I'm not at ALL confident in my solving so like... lol.

Well, obviously, I think you should.

As a general rule, in these situations, I solve using Hanlon's Razor - the most likely solution is the correct solution. The gamestate, as it stands, is one I judged to be about 80/20 Bellaphant/CCGeek, so given the current time limit, I voted for Bellaphant.

The question you should be asking yourself here isn't who

is certainly

scum - it is who is

likely

scum. Ultimately, all you're making is a well-educated guess, just make that guess on the best education you have.

[ChicagoTypewriter]

CT can you link one of your scum games to me?

This is it here: viewtopic.php?t=90895
First game I played and I rolled scum. You can check my iso for my playstyle in that game.

[ChicagoTypewriter]

Okay, wow, heipizhu4 was like two steps ahead of everyone the entire time.
Thanks, CCGeek!

Bellaphant, gg by the way. Good job with the pr reads!