Spoiler: Response
Saying that someone's posts have been scummier is a pretty circular reason as to why someone's scum. I don't understand how you talking to llamarble specifically actually changes anything about what i said. I think my point still stands – you said that his posts were scummier and that his lurking was scummier, but you didn'tIn post 3169, Cogito Ergo Sum wrote:I literally do give a reason why Marquis was the scummiest in that post ("when his posts have a) been scummier and his lurking has been more in the style of a scumbag?") - the first point is admittedly not convincing without context but I was talking specifically to 'marble who did seem to agree with me that Marquis' early posting was scummy; the second point could admittedly use more context (i.e. Marquis' lurking was in response to a wagon whereas Dunn's and Wgeurts' wasn't) but again I was talking to 'marble specifically, not a general audience.He calls Marquis the scummiest of the three lurkers (Dunn, Marquis, Wgeurts), and again doesn't explain why.
explain
any of that. As far as i can tell, the only point you bring up there that i didn't already mention (being awkward and lurking) is that marquis is "trying to look town". As for that point, i again don't see any true explanation – why is any of it performative as opposed to genuine? Like, you point to 1481 and say to just look at some paragraphs to see how he's trying to act town, but that's not an explanation, that's just asking the readers to figure out what your point supposedly is themselves.I have talked about the meta point - it was specifically in relation to Marquis' "Please hold as I forward you to a representative"-nonsense; he used a similarly annoying affectation in the linked scum game (albeit for longer). I obviously just gave a summary of my Marquisread in #3095 that I encourage everyone to read but anyone who's been reading my Day 3 posts with any sort of attention should know your core claim here is just outright false.He makes a lot of posts just calling marquis scummy around this time still without explaining why before finally talking about it in 526. What were his reasons? "Awkward tone" and meta from one scumgame in 2015 that he never really explains in any depth. As far as I can tell,these are still the reasons he's scumreading Marquis, along with lurking. It goes without saying, but these reasons are both very easily fakeable and are apparently good enough for CES for that single read to last the entire game.
In response to the first and third paragraphs, you've provided a bit more context for those actions but i don't see how what you've said changes anything that i've said or really refutes it.I'm sure I've talked about this before but I was just superbusy during that time (I think my longest post during that week came in the interval of a magic show). I was definitely influenced by 'marble questioning of postie because I knew I didn't have the time to single-handedly shift the lynch away from Tchill and I was hoping 'marble would be able to help. Similar deal with the Gammavote; I was throwing it out there more out of hope than any real expectation of success.He briefly votes postie, perhaps influenced by marble's questioning of postie in the previous post. He again only explains this much later, saying that postie was more looking good than actually scumhunting. In that same post he says that he obviously agrees with the gist of the eddie case, but that he still thinks it would be an easy thing for postie to focus on if she were scum. All of these opinions are contradictory to eachother.
His Gamma vote comes for Gamma's case in 702, but again he only barely explains this until much later, with a vague comment about Gamma's case being "accusatory" in 823. He goes into more detail in 1567, saying that Gamma was being awkward and looked concerned with how justified his votes were. This is another weak read, and he pretty much entirely drops this point and doesn't bring it up again – you know, after the consensus largely came to be that gamma is town.
W.r.t. to my Postievote specifically, there's no contradiction there. I can see multiple posts that seem in my eyes to focus on looking good over scumhunting (#446 seriously is a post that a) looks good to most players and b) accomplishes absolutely nothing) but those posts were (generally?) not the ones about Eddie. I make that clear in the post you link ("I have a harder time judging her play since the Eddiepush started").
W.r.t. to my Gammavote specifically, I acknowledge that it's a weak read, which is why I only gave it upon being prompted by ranmaru. There hasn't been any reason to talk about it since (I'll admit that I haven't gotten round to taking a closer look at GE's more recent play with all that's been happening; I was going to do that for the reads post that I never found the time for fully).
In response to the postie bit, i still think it's contradictory – not what you were saying about focusing more about looking good than actually doing anything, but both agreeing with postie's push on eddie but still saying that it's an easy thing for her to focus on regardless of alignment. If you agreed that postie's case made sense and that it made eddie scum and unless you were suggesting some strange bussing strategy, wouldn't that make postie town? it looks like both keeping your options open and setting postie up for failure if the eddie wagon were to go through.
Okay? I don't see how saying it was just those two reasons takes away any of the scumminess i'm suggesting about your shift there.I appreciate the amount of context you've included because it shows how much of a nothingburger this is. Screenplay went from basically null to slightly scummy as a result of essentially those two reasons. As you point out, I explained in #1179 why I thought the swap was scummy. It's not screen's desire to survive that I found scummy (town obviously does also want to) but the absence of much else, which I think is self-evidently scummy (certainly on D1 in White Flag this will be scum's only motive). Your comment on #1185 should say "the Tchill part" and it shouldn't be too surprising because it was Screenplay's actions that led me to think the slot was slightly scummy.I've talked a lot about CES' read on tchill/screenplay, but let's really go over his progression there.
662 – Brings up two points that make tchill scummy, one point that makes him towny. Describes it as a "wagon driven by relatively crude heuristics."
820 – Pretty much doesn't take any stance on tchill, talks about how the lurking doesn't affect his read.
1025 – The swap makes him feel better about the wagon.
1179 – Argues that screen being willing to swap means it's more likely that the tchill slot is scum here.
1185 – When responding to ran, describes how the scumread on postie seems more convincing to him than the eddie part, which "doesn't really sway [him]".
1217 – Hammer.
CES says that he detailed the nature of his read change but he really didn't in any truly explanatory way. He's said how the odds of hitting scum in tchill went up for him, but the only reasons in his iso for this are the swap and screen's desire to survive.
but in that very same post you describe how if you wanted to see scum lynched today you would just vote eddie – that doesn't suggest any sort of doubt like you're saying now (and right after this).That just refers to the fact that we need to lynch 2 scum to win the game (in context it provided a nice contrast - 2 vs 1). I was worried about the exact situation that I think we find ourselves in now: Eddie's town, Marquis is scum and my credibility has been undermined by me joining the Eddiewagon.Day two, back on the marquis wagon. Later, when Tsq asks him why he's not on the eddie wagon when he's stated that he agrees with postie's case, he says that that doesn't help with the goal of lynching two scum. What?
i don't see how you could both be worried about eddie flipping town and you losing your credibility and hold the opinion that it was a good lynch and that you had eddie pretty confidently scum. Also, wouldn't it make more sense to be concerned about losing credibility from theHe later jumps on the Eddie wagon with no real indication as to why the switch.
That's because my vote for Eddie essentially came down to me letting go of the more strategic approach and just voting with the goal of getting what I thought was a good lynch. It was prompted by me explaining my reads to Ranmaru and at that point I just felt that I was being somewhat condescending by trying to game the system in order to secure my preferred lynch (i.e. intentionally not joining the Eddiewagon when it was my natural inclination to do so in order to keep my credibility intact for a Marquislynch).
marquis
lynch? After all, marquis was the one you had been pushing for a while – eddie was postie's wagon, largely. How would it have made you
lose credibility moreso than anyone else on the wagon?By describing my points on a macro level such that they lose any sort of nuance you're making it appear as if there's some kind of inconsistency there – there isn't.This is mainly a reiteration of your italicized claim about the Marquisread but you've additionally managed to miss out my reasons for voting Eddie!Let's examine all of the reasons CES has voted people for, this game:
-Lurking
-Awkward wording
-Looking more good than actually solving the game (this vote never went anywhere, however)
-RVS? (Llamarble)
First of all, these reasons are, as a whole, surface level. It was llamarble who said that if CES doesn't lynch scum then he's probably scum himself – given that this is what CES has been pushing people on, I'm inclined to trust that. Next, all of his scumreads have been opportunistic – on players that looked lynchable (notable is that dunnstral is an exception to this, with a very weak reason from CES – this lends credence to my view of the scumteam). Marquis has always been a viable wagon. Tchill and eddie both actually went through. Gamma looked viable for a bit, and that's when CES voted / scumread him. His postie vote followed llamarble placing a bit of pressure there and again stopped afterwards. It's all agenda-driven.
A quick review of team mafia 2015 indicated that he didn't vote lurkers all the time. He seemed to have fairly well-developed reads that don't compare with his fairly robotic scumhunting this game.
I know what 'marble said but I'm also pretty sure he didn't say "If I, 'marble, get Tchill mislynched and CES helps get Eddie mislynched, then CES has to be scum." That's a ridiculously overzealous reading of what 'marble said - I am not magic and we also lynched town D1 and D2 last White Flag (and I was unquestionably more culpable in that game than here).In your summary you've managed to hold both my acquiescence to the Tchilllynch and my attempts to prevent the Tchilllynch by voting Postie and GE against me as if they're even comparable to my more serious votes on Eddie and Marquis.
Mafia is about lynching scum. When searching for who's scum, you'll also tend to figure out who isn't scum, no? I'm not just saying that there's not enough effort from you – i'm saying that there's barely any effort at all and i believe it's a scum strategic decision.It's absolutely true that I don't tend to focus on my town reads. Mafia is about lynches and out of Lycanfire, Ranmaru and LQ, maybe Lickitung was in some risk of being lynched at some point when I was less confident in my scum read, so it should be fairly natural that that also held here. Tchill was a null read of mine when I made #662 which I've made abundantly clear and I did talk about him precisely because2. Undeveloped Townreads
Here's a list of every time i could fine where CES calls someone "town":
662 – He talks about a "nice town tell" from tchill but still evidently scumreads him (if his behavior is anything to go off of).
1179 – Says that i had a "townish line".
1397 – Describes how one of quick's posts shows a pro-town mindset, but ultimately comes to the non-conclusion of "It's not hard to find scummy posts by Lickitung but it's not hard to find townie posts by him either."
1596 – Calls lycan town for scumreading him, calls tsq "sheaey", so wants to sheep llamarble's read on him.
1801 – Says that Ran is his strongest townread.
2223 – Says that davsto generally sounds town, but that he needs to take a closer look. This goes away after davsto votes him.
2610 – Quick is solidly town.
I'm pretty sure that's it. He's barely mentioned a large amount of the playerlist, and for the reads that he has mentioned, his reasons are always self-admittedly weak.
He's keeping his options open.he wasat the risk of being lynched.
Are you at all disputing the validity of what i'm saying here? Can you explain the difference?If you want to quote meta evidence, actually quote (or link) it because this doesn't pass the smell test and this whole case is long enough that people aren't exactly going to be incentivised to read my iso in another game too.Look back at team mafia 2015 – a huge difference in how he approaches townreads. He's not playing the same at all, and i'm fairly confident it's because he's scum.
Can you explain how he "dropped that nonsense by the end of D1"? Because i don't really see that.This is just a very elaborate of describing that I had a slightly lame start, 'marble scumread me for it a bit but dropped that nonsense by the end of D1 and went back to generic stuff. I don't think you're taking what 'marble's saying all that seriously because then you might be more inclined to actually give me Marquislynch. There's also the fact that 'marble would've been nightkilled by 90% of all scum teams anyway, so this is all a wash.3. NKA
Let's examine llama and postie and their relation to cogito ergo sum.
First, llamarble's mentions of cogito ergo sum.
215 – Says to lynch CES in lylo no matter what. Can't imagine why CES called for dueling Marble/Marquis wagons if he was town.
343 – Calls CES null, and makes the point that strong players always appear town early on.
347 – Says again to lynch CES in lylo, mentions that he's been buddied by CES as scum before and to not let it happen this game.
408 – Calls CES the first alternate to his scumreads
516 – Put CES in his scumteam.
537 – Reiterates to lynch CES in lylo.
582 – Says that he could could "easily believe" a scumteam with CES in it.
664 – Same as before.
875 – Lays out a lynch order where CES is first on the chopping block if tchill flips town.
930 – This one is important – says to give CES some time,but if town isn't winning before LyLo, CES is scum. He also advocates lynching whoever is left in lylo that should've been nightkilled.
1146 Says that CES should be lower on Ran's readslist.
1160 – Places CES in the category of "don't let live to lylo".
As an aside, Llamarble's thoughts on marquis were that there were decent to very good reasons to townread him, and his lynch order had town leaving him alive until lylo. The llamarble kill day one is a point against marquis scum unless marquis is also scum with one of the people in marble's lynch order.
(As an illustration of how hard it is to respond to all of the nonsense in this post, there's also the separate point that nsg's comment on #875 creates a connection between tchill flipping town and me being scum that just isn't there in the original post.)
This section is an illustration of how the nk doesn't point
away
from you, as i think it would for, say, marquis or me or postie. It's part of a case – meant to be comprehensive and to recognize any potential evidence to the contrary (where, in this case, for nka and ces!scum, there is none).You're right about that mistake, and i apologize – it was actually just that you were in the lynch order without any mention of how tchill would flip.
why are you calling it inaccurate if you then go on to do exactly what i said and say that 1160 would be where to look given marble's death? 1160 was his readslist, yes, but 875 was theI also don't think there was any indication she would've opposed it either.When it comes to postie, there's very little indication that postie would have gone after marquis and she had me as locktown. Her death clears the way for both of those pushes. This point less directly related to CES scum but still something i'd like to talk about later.
This manages us to be inaccurate in 3 different ways. In #1557 (it's the third reply), I'm questioning you why you jumped to #875 as a point of reference when clearly 'marble's thoughts had evolved since then. #1160 is very clearly meant as a last reads list, before he dies, and there's no indication that it's predicated on tchill being scum (and it'd be weird for it be so, given that 'marble was generally to cover all eventualities). I also certainly never implied that it was lynch-from-the-bottom-up; I just linked it.Now, a look at cogito ergo sum's use of NKA / his use of dead people's reads.
In 1557, CES says that 1160 would be where we should look given the marble kill, but the readslist in that post was heavily based around tchill being scum. One of the things marble was incredibly adamant on was that we not let CES get to lylo if town isn't winning by then. His readslist also wasn't lynch from the bottom up – he explicitly said that there was scum in the good but hard to read players.
plan
that he laid out. how are you saying that things changed between them? i never said that's what you implied, i was saying that in terms of figuring out who marble would want to lynch looking at the readslist isn't the best idea because it didn't represent a lynch order.I don't feel like this actually response to what i was saying here.I don't count you quotemining 'marble for nonsense so I would say it is true that people generally don't care about 'marble's reads (I want people to care-care, not "I can use NKA to bolster my argument"-care). It's not LyLo now or even necessarily close to LyLo so I don't see how that part of 'marble's reads should have come up in my explanation for why I was town reading Shea.In 2690, he says that if he doesn't care about marble's reads then nobody will as a defense of his TSQ read. Not only is this not true in the first place, but it's kind of a misrepresentation of what marble had made clear – people who are alive at lylo when they shouldn't be need to be lynched. The fact that he doesn't mention this nuance or seem to take it into account doesn't do anything to defend his weak TSQ read, and only furthers the idea of a scumteam there.
Let's look at another TSQ interaction based on marble's reads. In 2742, CES says that he feels good about sheeping marble's townread on TSQ because they know each other in real life and thus marble should have a good idea of how to read him. This again is just selectively choosing parts of what marble said.
postie being dead means we can look back on what she said to get a townread on me, yes – how does it mean i can invoke her word to get peopleSaying that I "argue[d] that" is an overstatement; I theorized it but also said the previous possibility was more likely. I would say that Postie being dead gives you more town sway because it means you can explicitly invoke a dead townie's word to get people on your side (as you have done a few times); a living Postie is more helpful in keeping you alive but I think less helpful in terms of getting the town to do what you want. It's true that nightkilling me would've been a more direct way of protecting Marquis but I also really wasn't expecting to be nightkilled given Lycanfire's hateboner for me. Assuming Lycanfire's town, that's just a guaranteed mislynch for scum at some point.2334 – Argues that the postie kill was to make me look better and to give me more sway to steer the lynch away from marquis. What? How does postie being dead, someone who had me as locktown, give memoretown sway as opposed to less? If the scumteam actually cared about protecting marquis, they probably would've killed the person hard tunnelling him from day one – CES himself. The fact that he doesn't recognize this and this whole point are incredibly disingenuous.
on my side?
I like how you say "assume". I think i've given reasonable arguments to support the things that i've been putting forth.If you assume I'm scum and my targets have been scum, then that is probably true, yes.I'm confident in saying that cogito ergo sum has voted only town this entire game.
This doesn't address points in the game where people were pushing for your lynch pretty hard and explicitly asking others to follow them on there. Don't you think it's easier (and puts less of a target on yourself) to agree with someone's case on someone else and follow that than to push a lurker?Maybe it's just because Marquis has been scummier than me? Both dead townies that are included in those sets ('marble and Eddie) were on Marquis. Also pretty sure LQ voted me at some point before this but I'm pretty sure it's a completely arbitrary point regardless.The cogito ergo sum wagon never moves anywhere despite nobody really townreading him. Here are the people who have voted CES:
Day 1 – {Lycan, Ran, NSG}
Day 2 – {Eddie, Lycan}
Day 3 – {Lycan, Davsto, NSG, Ran}
Comparatively, the people who have voted marquis (excluding rvs) are:
Day 1 – {Davsto, Dunn, CES, Llama, Quick, Gamma}
Day 2 – {Ran, Eddie, Gamma, CES, Quick, Dunn}
Day 3 – {CES, Quick, Dunn, Ran, Gamma, TSQ}
The cogito ergo sum wagon doesn't take off because scum don't want it to. The marquis wagon does, the same way the eddie wagon did. If cogito ergo sum were town, his wagon should have taken off at some point during this game, but it hasn't – not even after ran was canvassing pretty hard for it.
I apologize – sincerely.I'm going to have lunch now and reply to sections 5 and 6. Thanks for wasting hours of my time, northsidegal, it's really appreciated.
![:]](./images/smilies/icon_smiling.png "Cheerful Smile"){kind=icon}
