Mini 2079 - Guns & Roses [Game Over]
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Kagami Jack of All Trades
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Kagami Jack of All Trades
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Kagami Jack of All Trades
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Kagami Jack of All Trades
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Kagami Jack of All Trades
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Kagami Jack of All Trades
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Kagami Jack of All Trades
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Kagami Jack of All Trades
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Kagami Jack of All Trades
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Kagami Jack of All Trades
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Kagami Jack of All Trades
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Kagami Jack of All Trades
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Kagami Jack of All Trades
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Kagami Jack of All Trades
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Kagami Jack of All Trades
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Kagami Jack of All Trades
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Kagami Jack of All Trades
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Kagami Jack of All Trades
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Kagami Jack of All Trades
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So since you're here and still voting Pine, ceph, what are the circumstances under which scum-Pine derives any benefit from this?
Hito is wrong that there's some world in which scum-pine lives, he obviously gets deadline lynched in the abscence of a CC.
What are the odds that the town gun is N3+ (which is a very foolish choice)?-
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Kagami Jack of All Trades
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Kagami Jack of All Trades
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Kagami Jack of All Trades
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Kagami Jack of All Trades
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Kagami Jack of All Trades
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Kagami Jack of All Trades
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Kagami Jack of All Trades
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Kagami Jack of All Trades
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Kagami Jack of All Trades
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Kagami Jack of All Trades
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Kagami Jack of All Trades
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Kagami Jack of All Trades
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Kagami Jack of All Trades
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Implosion, things are solid to the point that getting bogged down in fluffy stuff is about the only path to a loss here.
As more and more people posted without CCing Pine, LLD and hito became more, not less, interested in seeing the lynch go through.
At the time of Pine's hammer, every single player except cyanjet had posted and not CCed, so there was no informational loss to waiting anyway. If Cyanjet had continued to be absent, we would ask for him to be replaced and the Day would be extended; FG would have likely extended the day due to my replace-in anyway if it had been requested. There is also no world where Pine somehow lasts more than an hour or two if he gets CCed.
There's are times when you should just stick to the fundamentals of mafia: people who are aiming to lynch someone who is likely to become confirmed town are a lot more likely to be scum than those trying to resist it. Everyone here, except maybe cyan, has played enough mafia games on this site to know that "mishandled" claims and clumsy posts happen pretty often and are not some kind of magic bullet that overrides a mod-provided innocent.
Also, while less concrete than the above, I don't see town-LLD choosing Rose.-
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Kagami Jack of All Trades
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I hadn't really thought much of it at the time as I was about to be out for the night, but I can recognize the possible interpretation that it was some kind of stupid sort of CC.
If I had a very low opinion of your town plan, that might be a relevant defense, but it really isn't. A competent player does not lynch confirmed town out of some sense of impatience or heaven knows what else and then express pride over having done so.-
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Kagami Jack of All Trades
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Kagami Jack of All Trades
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Kagami Jack of All Trades
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Kagami Jack of All Trades
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Kagami Jack of All Trades
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Alright, I can see why this game feels so stall-y.
The lynch today is LLD, and that's not even a matter of opinion or something. There's necessarily scum in {LLD, s_s, and cyan}, so there's no reason s_s or cyan would move their vote unless they suddenly decide the other is scum.
S_s and cyan are probably both town, and I'm ok with losing if they are.
I don't mind hashing out the rest tomorrow if there's going to be a bit more energy following the scumflip. The only thing that isn't really supporting hito-scum here is that implosion makes a lot more sense as a NK than either pops or ceph.-
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Kagami Jack of All Trades
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Kagami Jack of All Trades
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Kagami Jack of All Trades
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Kagami Jack of All Trades
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Kagami Jack of All Trades
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Opening comments are so silly.
When there is only one town gun, the first thing you do is sort out which players are most likely to choose gun, because those players are far more likely to be scum than town a posteriori.
LLD really shouldn't have made it past day 1. You think she'd have gone for a low chance of dodging a night kill over being able to kill someone?-
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Kagami Jack of All Trades
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I'm about to head to bed, but pretending that there's a world where LLD is not scum is pretty silly at this point.In post 756, hitogoroshi wrote: I mean if you're town and LLD is scum you probably don't make it to tomorrow, so let's hash it out now.
Given the positions players have taken, I think it's not terribly unlikely I survive. I have some thoughts from a reread, but those are mostly fluffy and something I'd weigh over flips and setup.
My opinions on cyan and s_s changed with the introduction of new evidence. The suggestion that cyan was a good lynch was under the belief that mafia were reasonably likely not to be Guns.
So far you've done little to address the night kills. Ceph can vaguely be written off as a universal town-read, but why does pops die there?-
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Kagami Jack of All Trades
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Because most players end up being town and would pick their pro-town choice, I suppose? I don't think 8 townies picking rose is a likely outcome a priori either, but why would you care about an prior when you start with the outcome?In post 759, hitogoroshi wrote:wait a minute Kagami if you thought players picked gun/rose before alignment why in the world would you think that anyone would ever pick rose instead of gun.-
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Kagami Jack of All Trades
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Kagami Jack of All Trades
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Kagami Jack of All Trades
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Kagami Jack of All Trades
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Kagami Jack of All Trades
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I have reviewed and come to the conclusion that maybe, just maybe, you have absolutely no idea how this setup works, since none of this really makes sense (especially with your clarification).In post 762, hitogoroshi wrote: You apparently made this post believing that the choices were made pre-alignment. It seems weird to single out LLD specifically for playstyle/temperament then, when I would think this is kind of a mark against every player who doesn't expect to be vigged - so me, LLD, probably implo. And actually, how did you KNOW that LLD wasn't N1 Gun, anyway?
In this setup, GUN is a role that is like suicide bomber, except you get to keep your voice, vote, and your identity doesn't get revealed. I.e, it is an amazing and incredibly powerful role.
ROSE is garbage. It is a much, much, much worse 1-shot bulletproof, which is already a mediocre role. You pick rose because you're not confident in your scumhunting, because you're really afraid of being NKed N1, or because, well, someone has to do it. This is not to dodge a vig, unless there was some time pre-game where players could coordinate choices, and unless you are the god of scumhunters, you shouldn't expect to dodge a scum kill with this.
I haven't bothered to do the roll-out to sort out the nash equilibrium on role choice, but my guess would be you want to pick some kind of rose about 35% as town, and scum picks double gun most of the time.
At the time I remarked about LLD not being N1 gun, I hadn't fully digested the setup, but it was pretty clear that picking gun was better than rose and that an 8 rose town was highly irregular. Of all the players I expected to prefer being able to killing anyone they like to a small chance to dodge a NK, LLD stuck out in my mind as exceptionally unlikely to go for the rose. I realized much later that anyone who would be especially likely to choose gun as town was substantially more likely to be scum, and that this really should have been sussed out D1.
The only difference that getting alignment first really makes is that it more or less guarantees that scum go double gun. I was initially entertaining cyan as more of a policy lynch than anything and thought the pine wagon was unwarranted, but would not have felt if I had been aware there was probably only one mislynch available.-
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Kagami Jack of All Trades
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Right now, ~96% sure she's scum. The only way she isn't is if both your slot and S_S are scum, which seems really farfetched.In post 786, Ankamius wrote:I will go into one thing off the bat while I'm thinking about it, however.
Kagami, how sure are you that LLD is scum? Can you point me directly to why you believe so, or if you haven't explained it yet, explain it for me? This is important to my read on you this game.
At daystart, I had her as a primary scum candidate with hito for bullying for the pine lynch. Later in the day I realized that her being likely to pick gun was of note, but that was already made irrelevant after your slot's vote.-
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Kagami Jack of All Trades
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Kagami Jack of All Trades
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Kagami Jack of All Trades
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Kagami Jack of All Trades
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Ank, it's already pretty silly to think that kagami-scum would be antagonizing Hito-town here especially given I could have leveraged the townread in this utterly repulsive post, but to do so as a team with S_S makes absolutely no sense.-
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Kagami Jack of All Trades
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Kagami Jack of All Trades
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Kagami Jack of All Trades
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Kagami Jack of All Trades
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I don't understand that statement. I'm saying I don't think there are any scumfigurations including you.
It looks like Hito is town given 808, since LLD-Hito had pretty much won the game after ank's entrance, and 803 completely throws that out the window.-
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Kagami Jack of All Trades
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Kagami Jack of All Trades
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