Newbie 1814 | National Geographic | Game Over

[Counterpoint]

Official Vote Count 4.10

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Lynching

.

Everybody

(0): Nobody

Not Voting

(3): Bucket, RadiantCowbells, UnaBombah

With 3 alive, it takes 2 to lynch.

The day 4 deadline is in

: (expired on 2017-09-22 15:00:00)

Mod notes: Keep it fun!

[UnaBombaH]

I'm working on a big post, stacked quotes while drinking my morning caffeine..
I have to leave for work now, will try to finish the post there as soon as possible! (within few hours)

[RadiantCowbells]

I am excited!

[UnaBombaH]

So I tried very hard to reset my read on Mike when re-reading his ISO, and these are the parts that struck me:

mastina is not a good lynch today, but not because I don't suspect her. I've thought about this a while, and here's what I came up with: if she's powertowning, she's a valuable asset due to the inherent danger of experienced powertowners. And she's also probably dead at night. So if she survives the night, then we know there's a high chance of her being scum.

This is essentially what I said about her too, but in different words. I was scumread for saying I would keep her around D1, but Mike was not (atleast not as hard). So RC calling me scum for my posts on mastina/mala earlygame should be compared to this.

So Jae and mast is TvS, (I think same too)
Vote mastina and if she is town (probably and most likely not) lynch Jae

No, this is bad thinking. There is the possibility that Jae is town and also is mistaken on their read of mastina. So we lynch them both D1 and D2, and then what, we're down to a 3v2 with both IC players gone plus another of scum choice? Yeah that's a recipe for disaster. Let their back and forth stew for a while more and see what comes of it before jumping to conclusions.

We don't lynch two people just to get one, unless we're in a conflicting role claim situation. Right now, we lynch the one that will get us the best shot of getting scum with the least repercussion to town, like this: VOTE: RedFlavor

This might have been a slip from a forced town perspective. Mike is responding to Red in a manner that would seem like he townreads him, but then ends this post with a vote. This is also a "good post" from scum!Mike towards a wincondition, because it reinforces the Red-wagon and simultaneously diverts from mastina (his buddy)

I don't think everyone is reading me that town though. Some people are, but I know Jae said I'm a prime town-action target tonight so... idk.

Has to try and discredit the comment that he is basically locktown for many, because he is not going to die ANY night. This alone is one strong ping towards scum!Mike-slot, a townie shouldn't need to argue that they are not townread.

Carcalilly is basically the most town person I've seen this game, but that's mostly because we're reading the game so similarly, at least earlier we were. Lately she hasn't been posting as much, so maybe there's something there, but I don't think that's a good lynch today, if ever.

TO (one IRL day later)

A note on my Carcalilly read - it was largely based off of early posting, where Carca was more involved, or at least it felt like it. Now, she's not much to be seen, and it makes me wonder if it's coasting scum or disinterested town or just chilling out in general. Needless to say, I'm not feeling Carca as heavily town as before.

First post is VERY "on the fence" type of crap. He goes from "most town" to "mostly because we read the game similarly" to "AT LEAST WE WERE" to "she hasn't been posting as much, so maybe there's something there" to "I don't think that's a good lynch today,

if ever.

"
THE VERY NEXT DAY HE BACKPEDALS ON THAT

SO HARD

.
I'm wondering how I missed all of this earlier? And it flew past everyone else too.

I've gone over basically everything you guys are talking about already so I don't have a lot to add, but I do agree with Una that Mala really needs to step up. My early confusion about the slot is becoming more one of suspicion since Mala (IC) isn't really doing much of anything.

Note on the osuka replacement: playing super similarly to Jae - strong wording and semi-controlly - possibility that both play that way as scum isn't that high imo... more townish.

Still think Red is the best lynch atm, all said.

Posing distrust towards Mala for not providing content.
Again using me as a shield - I had made a comment, and he just reiterates the same thing.
Not making a firm stand on mala, but following in my shadow and reinforcing what I said.

I am getting an itch to hammer just because . But I am also a patient man, on occasion.

Why can't I handle all this posing?
Not declaring an actual intent, not voting, not hammering, JUST SAYING he has an itch to do so.
Doesn't cost a dollar (or a townread) to just say so.
I was very much honest I wasn't going to hammer her, because I didn't scumread her.
But maybe Mike is just joking here and I'm reading too much into this?

Also worth noting, none of us three was on her wagon at this point: I was alone voting Carca, Mike alone voting Red and Bucket NOT VOTING ANYONE.

I don't think she's scum either, but I'm not going to deny the amount of info we'd get on a flip.

...I feel dirty for typing that, because it goes against everything I believe: actively hunt scum, not information flips.

Also, that's a good point about not getting much resistance so far on mala - that often means we're targeting town. Unless you're her partner and are trying to WIFOM us with that statement

I still think Red is the best place to go today, but everyone seems to have chosen a different flavor.

So he was willing to hammer her anyway?
Because we would get information on flip?
But he doesn't scumread her?
He earlier said "just because", not because of information. So it wasn't a joke after all?

Loool I'm trying to imagine being a scum team with mastina/mala. Too funny

Side daydreaming: if I had to pick who I'd love to be a scum team with in this game it'd probably be osuka. Crap would get real. He could do all the swearing and I could be nice to everyone, ye olde good cop/bad cop.

You got me thinking on potential scum teammates with mala, which isn't super helpful since we don't have a flip, but I realized not a whole lot is coming to mind - maybe Carca but probably not Red or Osuka. I'm due for a re-read once we get a flip.

Too funny indeed..
I feel like the next part is again some clever "planting" on his part: he is bold enough to play with the oh, so ridiculous idea that he could be scum, and that made us all townread him.
Because no newbscum would DARE to do that..?
His last line is genius: he knows that IF Mala is forced to flip, he has just "deduced" that osuka and red are both cleared.
Similarly, even if he drives the mislynch on Red/osuka at any point, he can just turn around and say that Mala is scum based on PoE.

I "want" to hammer because I want the phase over with XD

Oh Mike, you are such a jokester!
And then he goes off the rails again:

I don't REALLY want to hammer because I think it's a sub-par lynch. To clarify my statement in 510 where I said I don't think she's scum, I also don't really think she's town I've had a null on that slot all day long and haven't heard or seen anything to seriously sway me either direction.

More backpedaling and softening his reads. He doesn't want to own up on reading Mala either way!
Now he claims he has had that slot as null all day long!
But he was sort of willing to lynch her "just because".
I mean for info. But not like really at all.

We've got people like you and Jae and red who are just going HAM at the slot, which I kind of see some of the arguments, but meh... lynch it if you want and get it over with lol. You've been in this day far shorter than I have and I'm tired of talking about the same thing over and over.

As for Red, there's tunnelling, silly voting reasons, short posting, semi-lurking, it's all there. As an added bonus, basically every slot has had some sort of strong reaction. This is a good lynch, has been all day, and will be the best spot to end up at the end of the day, though I'm not too confident in us going there since everyone unvoted

And then he ultimately dodges taking any part in the lynch, while still not opposing it.
"I'm tired of talking about the same thing over and over." - a clear signal he isn't going to comment on Mala anymore.

Then he makes a case for the Red wagon, which I think was actually the towniest course of action.

This is all I have on Mikes D1 for now.
Will return with more later today if I have time, seems like it will be busy at work though..

[RadiantCowbells]

This is essentially what I said about her too, but in different words. I was scumread for saying I would keep her around D1, but Mike was not (atleast not as hard). So RC calling me scum for my posts on mastina/mala earlygame should be compared to this.

Because you're experienced in a way that Mike R is not. I understand him having exaggerated expectations of Mala, I don't quite understand you doing the same.
I hadn't really noticed this post either ftr.

This might have been a slip from a forced town perspective. Mike is responding to Red in a manner that would seem like he townreads him, but then ends this post with a vote. This is also a "good post" from scum!Mike towards a wincondition, because it reinforces the Red-wagon and simultaneously diverts from mastina (his buddy)

I agree with you that tonally Mike doesn't sound like he's talking to a scumread.
I can confirm that he was in fact town though!

Has to try and discredit the comment that he is basically locktown for many, because he is not going to die ANY night. This alone is one strong ping towards scum!Mike-slot, a townie shouldn't need to argue that they are not townread.

This really isn't alignment indicative at all. I don't think that newb!scum would come close to thinking about needing to discredit townreads on them.
That's not something I started doing until like 2016. I don't think that seeing this as him playing the long con makes much sense.

First post is VERY "on the fence" type of crap. He goes from "most town" to "mostly because we read the game similarly" to "AT LEAST WE WERE" to "she hasn't been posting as much, so maybe there's something there" to "I don't think that's a good lynch today, if ever."
THE VERY NEXT DAY HE BACKPEDALS ON THAT SO HARD.
I'm wondering how I missed all of this earlier? And it flew past everyone else too.

It is very waffly, yeah. But newbies get paranoid and reads change.

Posing distrust towards Mala for not providing content.
Again using me as a shield - I had made a comment, and he just reiterates the same thing.
Not making a firm stand on mala, but following in my shadow and reinforcing what I said.

It does though. He explicitly says he's becoming suspicious of the slot because of the lack of content. It's not a nothing.

everything about mala

This is super town indicative though. This isn't how newbscum approach their partners ever.
I'm pretty damn sure that you won't find a single instance of newbscum saying that they're nullreading their partner but willing to see them lynched to get the game going
Yes, he doesn't end up voting her at this time, but you're forgetting that later he does have progression on this and gives intent to hammer.
Obviously he siteflaked after this point so I can't prove that it was genuine and I don't even know if he would have hammered or not but unless you think that he gave intent then siteflaked to not take responsibility for it, this all did go somewhere.

If he was going to bus this isn't what it would look like.

[RadiantCowbells]

I would appreciate it if you would give thoughts on Bucket

[UnaBombaH]

Mike R:

Town. Toughtful play and head on a pivot. I don't see him getting narrowed in on specific thoughts and stays open to changing idea

CARCALILLY:

:Null. I leaned scum early - I didn't much like post 57. Defending RedFlav felt purposeful, like she was trying to help a fellow scum, and since then has been sporadic posting, potentially due to not being targeted herself, although it's still day one and we have 16 pages, so maybe just contribution bias.

UnaBombaH/bobbobin/psykosav:

Null. Una's posted more since wednesday than his predecessors combined. I didn't get the scum vibe from psyko that a few got.

Malakittens/Mastina:

Scumlean. I got the feeling that either JaeReed was scum trying to pass it off on Mastina, or Mastina actually was scum. She was hard for me to read at the beginning, especially as a newbie, with all the information she put out.

Buckets initial reads on our slots, Carca (the one who has gotten mostly cross-read) and Mala (his theorized scumbuddy).
Nothing weird, but I'll see if there are any strong flailings ahead.

Throughout the rest of her posts, she casually chimes in with one sentence or comment on her reads, encourage bobbobin to back his reads stronger (at a time they're the same as hers), or her town opinion on Mike. She seems active, but doesn’t say much, which keeps my scum lean, but not as highly as others.

His more detailed take on Carcas early content - after I asked for it. He follows very much along the same lines with how I originally started to scumlean her.

Una, I feel similarly about you. Psyko took some heat from a few of his early moves, and all karma you've given me I can debate with myself for hours. (What's that princess bride acronym?)

I feel fairly neutral on your slot, but I'm into how much you post.

INTO:

I agree with Una. Carca's vote on Mala was the same as before, jumping on the same vote as Red and neither provided any reason.

Does anyone have a strong read on Mala's slot? Pretty much all I have on it is what Jae said. Are there any other reasons for the vote there?

INTO:(towards osukas entrance)

Keep us posted. So far that's the best read besides Red's retaliate

INTO: (osuka wanted everyone to BP-claim)

not bp

UNVOTE: RedFlav

I really like this.

INTO:

@Osuka - i liked your analysis. I agreed with a lot of what you said when I read through the wall on 114. I also appreciated your explanation of the game theory behind claiming BP. This is my first exposure to mafia so I'm learning as I go.

..felt like midly trying to pocket me, and more strongly, osuka.
Also keeping the ball away from his end of the court, and just commenting from the side.
Similar to what Carca did, and what made me scumread her; no idea why Bucket also managed to fly under the radar here.

This game is strange. It's incited a weird paranoia in me. The further we get into the game, the more everyone seems scummy.

I'm torn on my vote here, but trying to stay flexible. The Mala wagon feels to me like its got scum on its wheels.

This feels BAD..but it could also just be a nervous town writing before thinking, and I have done that same mistake myself too.
But it could also be read as very poor posturing..

I don't want my scope to be too narrow, but this is another scummy post to me. "If she's actually town, I might reconsider" passes the buck to another player's judgement, and sets up a narrative for why Mala was actually scum.. it was Red's fault!

VOTE: Carcalilly

Good post in the sense that he catches on the right thing and doesn't spend time posturing or over-acting anything.

@una - I'd want to confirm Osuka.

I think Alonzo is a good vote. I would rather Alonzo, Carca, or Red than Mala right now.

Answered to my funny "test"/question on who everyone would like to confirm the alignment on.
And gave osuka, who was also the N1 kill.
I initially asked the question for two reasons:
1) in case everyone answers, I would see who the dead player picked -> might be a reason for NK
2) I might see a player pick someone who DOES get NK'd the following night, which would be an association many wouldn't know how to fake or plan beforehand.
I don't think scum would dare name the player they are about to kill, but at the same time they wouldn't think of it being so important, that they would focus their NK to that person just for WIFOM reasons.

Bucket does have the exact same pool of scum that I did: Alonzo, Carca and Red, and he even MAKES IT A POINT TO NAME MALA townier than them.

Alright, 14 hours left. Lets get a lynch today.

@Edos - do you have any reasons for a Mala vote besides her calling you Edo? Who else is on your scumlist?

@Una - It looks like we dont have steam for a Carca vote, who else would you want to go?

@Alonzo - Do you have any opinions on anyone other than Mala or Osuka? I'm a little confused why you want Mala anyway.

I'll say again, my vote is fairly flexible. I have scumreads on a few slots and would like to get a vote together this afternoon.

I feel very iffy about this post.
He could be honestly trying to get a solid wagon going so that we don't get a no-lynch, or it could be scum trying to put the pressure for reads on others while sitting back himself.
Pressing the point of having flexibility on his voting feels a bit cautios..

UNVOTE:
VOTE: RedFlavor

At this point we're just bouncing back and forth. Hopefully we get something going. Today it's just the three of us posting and an Alonzo promised later.

Doesn't give any specific reasoning for his vote, apparently just to fill a wagon, but it was close to NAI at that point..
And his earlier post sort of hinted this might be coming, but that doesn't mean its town.

Idk this is my first game and I know both mafia but no one is believing me

You say you know, but have no reasons for believing it. How do you

know?

So far the only indication you've given was retaliation votes - that you're sure Mala's slot is scum because she voted you and you're not scum.

I'm not sure if scum would feel the need to still say this..
The lynch was going to happen, and scum!Bucket had no reason to take a bigger role, since he would've known we were going to mislynch.

[UnaBombaH]

That was Buckets D1.
Now I have to go get some sleep..

[RadiantCowbells]

Good night!

[Bucket]

Just checking in to say I'm reading while on a trip. These breakdowns are a nice way to see how your posts are being read/interpreted.

Thanks for putting them together

[RadiantCowbells]

Bucket, can you flesh out your reads on both me and Una and how our posts have influenced that?

[RadiantCowbells]

Just checking in to say I'm reading while on a trip. These breakdowns are a nice way to see how your posts are being read/interpreted.

@_@

[UnaBombaH]

Just checking in to say I'm reading while on a trip. These breakdowns are a nice way to see how your posts are being read/interpreted.

Thanks for putting them together

Possibly your turn to provide content?

[RadiantCowbells]

Also I've been meaning to say that, regardless of your alignment, thanks for getting away from what you were doing and playing the game 'properly'.
I understand that I'm the last person who should complain about playstyles but I haven't really been in a spot where I had any desire to try to read into what you were doing.
This game has been a lot more enjoyable for the last little while, and I think it sets a far better example for the newbies.

[UnaBombaH]

Also I've been meaning to say that, regardless of your alignment, thanks for getting away from what you were doing and playing the game 'properly'.
I understand that I'm the last person who should complain about playstyles but I haven't really been in a spot where I had any desire to try to read into what you were doing.
This game has been a lot more enjoyable for the last little while, and I think it sets a far better example for the newbies.

I'm aiming to complete my *absolutely not specific* on-going games, and then start doing IC-role in Newbie-queue, with the aim of trying different playstyles and being as informative as possible.
I've always loved teaching and sharing my own thoughts on theory.

[Counterpoint]

Official Vote Count 4.11

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Lynching

.

Everybody

(0): Nobody

Not Voting

(3): Bucket, RadiantCowbells, UnaBombah

With 3 alive, it takes 2 to lynch.

The day 4 deadline is in

: (expired on 2017-09-22 15:00:00)

Mod notes: Keep it fun!

[RadiantCowbells]

This is super town indicative though. This isn't how newbscum approach their partners ever.
I'm pretty damn sure that you won't find a single instance of newbscum saying that they're nullreading their partner but willing to see them lynched to get the game going
Yes, he doesn't end up voting her at this time, but you're forgetting that later he does have progression on this and gives intent to hammer.
Obviously he siteflaked after this point so I can't prove that it was genuine and I don't even know if he would have hammered or not but unless you think that he gave intent then siteflaked to not take responsibility for it, this all did go somewhere.

If he was going to bus this isn't what it would look like.

You didn't respond to this: do you not agree with anything that I've said here?

[Counterpoint]

Official Vote Count 4.12

---

Lynching

.

Everybody

(0): Nobody

Not Voting

(3): Bucket, RadiantCowbells, UnaBombah

With 3 alive, it takes 2 to lynch.

The day 4 deadline is in

: (expired on 2017-09-22 15:00:00)

Mod notes: Keep it fun!

[UnaBombaH]

This is super town indicative though. This isn't how newbscum approach their partners ever.
I'm pretty damn sure that you won't find a single instance of newbscum saying that they're nullreading their partner but willing to see them lynched to get the game going
Yes, he doesn't end up voting her at this time, but you're forgetting that later he does have progression on this and gives intent to hammer.
Obviously he siteflaked after this point so I can't prove that it was genuine and I don't even know if he would have hammered or not but unless you think that he gave intent then siteflaked to not take responsibility for it, this all did go somewhere.

If he was going to bus this isn't what it would look like.

You didn't respond to this: do you not agree with anything that I've said here?

You had broken my quote on the subject, so I'm honestly not sure how to read this post of yours..

I'm also not willing to approach my final, decisive read, on the assumption of them being a newb!scum.
They might have played elsewhere (no matter what they say), and you shouldn't play the game on the assumption that your opponents are playing poorly.
That is how you lose and stop evolving your own play: you can just always excuse bad reads/calls with "they have played sub-optimally".

[UnaBombaH]

Still waiting on Bucket.
I'm willing to give you 24 hours, and then I am voting for you with the intention to end the game without necessarily scumreading you over RC.
You need to give content in LyLo, regardless of AI, and even though I want to win, I'm not interested in leaving this game hanging any longer.

[Counterpoint]

Bucket² has been prodded. They have (expired on 2017-09-20 01:15:24) to post or they will be replaced.

[Bucket]

meh. i tried to go through it all again yesterday during my lunch and i just dont have the time to dig deeper or craft any further opinions than what I've shown.

I think, most simply, I just dont understand why RC would have night killed Carcalilly when the two of them could have just speedkilled anyone they wanted and given RC the win, so my vote will go towards Unah.

[UnaBombaH]

So I guess that is the same as voting me then.
RC has made more of an effort to win, no matter his alignment, so I guess I'm voting Bucket.
Scum!RC can hammer, town!RC can judge and question.

VOTE: Bucket

[Bucket]

VOTE: UnahBombaH

[RadiantCowbells]

Okay hold on