Newbie 1821: The Newlywed Game [Game Over][

[Huntress]

Caught up, but I want to wait to hear what you two have to say before I make my case.

If you're caught up then you've seen what I've said about your slot. I'm pretty sure that this was RC's town game but I'd like to see your take on things too, to confirm that, or otherwise. I had a town read on Plus Minus too but that was less strong and I'm not keen on some of his recent posts, starting with the last few of Day three.

[Huntress]

This is a fair amount of "you first"-ing going on.

My position is that I have to consider which of the following is more likely: assemble/rc slot playing a very crazy scum game where they lead the town around in circles, or huntress being lurkerscum.

The most recent thing to consider would be the NSG nightkill.
Supposing I were huntressscum, would I ever consider the possibility that RC is doing a fakeout claim to keep the PR alive for lylo? Likely not, so I don't see why NSG is the 'correct' nightkill. It would be simpler to just kill the most vocal player to increase the odds of lurker-style scum being able to smoothtalk the final day, especially considering that for the majority of the game I've more or less read RC as town and NSG has never actively questioned the possibility of RCscum. Yes, NSG spent the entire game pushing for a huntress lynch. At the same time, NSG was never able to really lead town to any particular wagon.

Supposing I were RCscum, I just fakeclaimed PR. The natural response for the real PR would be to verify my identity, so when the choice is VTclaim Huntress, VTbyvoting me, or NSG, the NSG nightkill makes sense.

Bottom line, I'm hard-pressed to believe huntress is the scum here, despite being a massive lurker this entire game.

But

, I'm going to feel exceptionally terrible if I vote you and lose to lurkerscum. So.

Huntress, I'm going to vote you in 48 hours from this post if you don't post something substantial. You're making me rely on reading literally hundreds of RC posts versus the handful of yours. I don't particularly relish the idea of trying to read two extremes.

Am I reading this right? You think RC/Assembler is more likely to be scum but you're going to vote me because RC posted far more? What is the point of that? Also, you refer to my posts as "a handful", and accuse me of lurking, when you've not posted many more yourself.

As I said before, if there's anything in particular you want me to comment on, please ask me about it.

[Cabd]

Votecount 4-4

It is currently day four. With 3 players alive, it will take 2 votes to lynch or force a no-lynch.


Not Voting (3): Huntress, Assemblerotws, Plus Minus

The deadline for day four was set at 2 weeks from the start of the day. The current timer can be seen here: (expired on 2017-10-20 23:04:16)

[Huntress]

Currently thinking that Plus Minus is most likely to be scum, but still waiting to hear from Assembler.

[Assemblerotws]

It took me some time to come to a conclusion, and I eventually used two major factors to decide what I thought. First off, Plus Minus's interactions with Nictis do not at all look like bussing, and there does not seem to be much to gain if she were to be bussing. Secondly, our actual tracker had declared an intent to investigate Huntress the day before her death, and it was possible for scum!Huntress to deduce that NSG was the Tracker by POE but not possible for Plus Minus to do the same.

Defend yourself, Huntress.

[Huntress]

I'll address this fully on Monday but my initial thought is that you're not giving Plus Minus enough credit here.

[Cabd]

I am prodding all living players.

[Huntress]

Plus Minus seems to have site flaked, which is a nuisance as I wanted to see how he would respond to my last post.

I wasn't able to concentrate on this yesterday so Monday is now Tuesday.

[Assemblerotws]

For me it's Tuesday evening, so I'm currently sitting and waiting for your defense.

[Huntress]

It took me some time to come to a conclusion, and I eventually used two major factors to decide what I thought. First off, Plus Minus's interactions with Nictis do not at all look like bussing, and there does not seem to be much to gain if she were to be bussing. Secondly, our actual tracker had declared an intent to investigate Huntress the day before her death, and it was possible for scum!Huntress to deduce that NSG was the Tracker by POE but not possible for Plus Minus to do the same.

Defend yourself, Huntress.

Plus Minus appeared to be convinced that Nictis had made a scumslip with the doctor query (see 253, 310 and 477). Confirmation bias can lead scum to think a partner's posts are more scummy than they really are and I think that may be what happened here. If Plus thought Nictis was the obvious lynch he had little to lose, and a lot to gain, by being early on the wagon.

Nictis had Plus Minus as one of his top scum reads but only gave weak reasons for this (adding a couple of times that it might just be paranoia) and never really pushed him at all, going after others instead.

As I had already said that I was VT, Plus only had to decide whether RC was telling the truth about being tracker or not. The fact that you raised this bothers my faith in my read on RC/you a bit, as the only one who could be fairly certain that NSG was the tracker was your slot. Plus and I both had two to choose between.

[Assemblerotws]

It took me some time to come to a conclusion, and I eventually used two major factors to decide what I thought. First off, Plus Minus's interactions with Nictis do not at all look like bussing, and there does not seem to be much to gain if she were to be bussing. Secondly, our actual tracker had declared an intent to investigate Huntress the day before her death, and it was possible for scum!Huntress to deduce that NSG was the Tracker by POE but not possible for Plus Minus to do the same.

Defend yourself, Huntress.

Plus Minus appeared to be convinced that Nictis had made a scumslip with the doctor query (see 253, 310 and 477). Confirmation bias can lead scum to think a partner's posts are more scummy than they really are and I think that may be what happened here. If Plus thought Nictis was the obvious lynch he had little to lose, and a lot to gain, by being early on the wagon.

Nictis had Plus Minus as one of his top scum reads but only gave weak reasons for this (adding a couple of times that it might just be paranoia) and never really pushed him at all, going after others instead.

As I had already said that I was VT, Plus only had to decide whether RC was telling the truth about being tracker or not. The fact that you raised this bothers my faith in my read on RC/you a bit, as the only one who could be fairly certain that NSG was the tracker was your slot. Plus and I both had two to choose between.

Possibly hindsight bias on my part, as I already knew NSG was the Tracker.
However, your initial point doesn't hold that much water, due to the Doctor also believing Nictis's actions were a scumslip. In fact, CheekyTeeky scumread Nictis for his doctor stunt several posts before Plus Minus weighed in. Your second point is, however, potentially valid. I wish I could hear PM respond to this soon.

[Huntress]

Possibly hindsight bias on my part, as I already knew NSG was the Tracker.
However, your initial point doesn't hold that much water, due to the Doctor also believing Nictis's actions were a scumslip. In fact, CheekyTeeky scumread Nictis for his doctor stunt several posts before Plus Minus weighed in. Your second point is, however, potentially valid. I wish I could hear PM respond to this soon.

How does Cheeky's scumread on Nictis detract from my point that Plus Minus may have thought that a Nictis lynch was inevitable? If anything it feeds into it. Plus Minus comes back from a four day break, sees Nictis has replaced in, thinks he looks scummy and sees that at least one other has noted it too and is voting him, so votes him too.

[Cabd]

Deadline is paused as I search for a plus minus replacement.

[Huntress]

Waiting to see what the replacement has to say.

[Huntress]

[Cabd]

Sunlit diamond replaces Plus Minus. Deadline is going to be manually set for 5 days.

[Sunlit Diamond]

Hi.

I have about 25 pages to go before I can participate intelligently. Stand by.

[Huntress]

Hi there!

Standing by.

[Assemblerotws]

Standing by.

[Sunlit Diamond]

I'm looking at Huntress, and it would take a decent amount of talking from her to convince me otherwise.

My reasoning behind this is based on RC's scum-sided meta and NSG's behavior throughout the game.

RC's meta is important because I think, from the little skimming I've been able to do, that he loses town games because he tries to apply scum tactics.

This is relevant because he fakeclaimed in D2, which is a thing "town should never do." The thing is, in this case town wins either way.

Either

A) NSG goes to lylo in which case she can claim, argue her case against Lioness, and win like that
or
B) NSG gets NKed, but RC is there to vote and argue for the breadcrumb trail she left to Lioness


I would be very interested to see Huntress' argument against this.

[Sunlit Diamond]

...Lioness wtf. Huntress.

[Sunlit Diamond]

To be clear, without the neon trail NSG laid for Huntress I'd be hard pressed not to scumread RC's fakeclaim. But....that breadcrumb is crazy loud.

[Sunlit Diamond]

fakeclaimed in D2

D3. Not D2. My fingers ain't my friends today.

[Assemblerotws]

We're in agreement, then, Diamond. Shall we end this?

[Sunlit Diamond]

Probably soon, but first I'll hear Huntress out.