Mini 199 - Time Travel Mafia, Game Over!

[Nox]

It seems to me that there is only one scum: Bob.

As Someone said, if Fishbulb had been scum, it would have been to his advantage to vote Someone. I think he's pro-town.

As for the Options, I'd opt for either A or C.

[Gaspode]

As Someone said, if Fishbulb had been scum, it would have been to his advantage to vote Someone. I think he's pro-town.

But wouldn't the same hold true for Bob? He hasn't voted Someone either.

By the way, this is all moot because we don't know if we have a serial killer or other non-scum killer. Plus, nothing accounts for the fact that we almost definitely have multiple killing groups (five deaths in three nights). Come to think of it, we are in a really bad position right now.

There are cases in which the only way for the town to win is to No Lynch and hope for rival groups to take each other out (it's happened to me, and I didn't realize it at the time). Perhaps we need to consider that possibility. Then again, if it's two scum and an SK, we need to lynch one scum today. Therefore, I'd say our chances are

probably

better if we lynch.

The last thing I brought up makes me think a mass claim could help us figure out which situation is true. Maybe we should do it. Anyone else think so?

Unfortunately, I'm going away for 11 days starting tomorrow at 5:00AM, so this is my last post. If I can get on while I'm away, I will, but don't count on it. If a replacement is absolutely necessary, go ahead and get one. I'd much prefer to finish the game, but I'd hate to ruin it too. My vote will stay on Someone for now.

[mathcam]

Current Official Vote Count

Changling bob (1, Nox)

Not Voting: Someone, Changling bob, Gaspode, Fishbulb

Deadline in 1 day and a half.

Cam

[Nox]

MOD: Gaspode voted Someone.

However, Bob hasn't posted since you voted, Fishbulb did. We don't know if he will or not. Moreover, Bob has been pointing fingers alot.

Gaspode, if you think both I and Someone are scumbuddies, please vote to lynch me instead. I will come up as Townie. Either way, whether Someone is scum or town, he will come up as non-townie and we will not have any more information than we do now.

[Fishbulb]

Vote: Changling bob

I haven't really made up my mind, but since it is tied currently between Someone and Changling bob, I need to at least break the tie. Hopefully I will be able to examing this better tomorrow. Or even better, maybe this will be a simple town win.

[Someone]

Wait a sec, fish.

Why doesn't gaspode claim, since he's probably dead tomorrow anyways?

Actually gaspode, don't claim until somebody else comments on my idea. I might be missing something.

[Nox]

And Changling Bob is lurking .

[Someone]

Yeah. Bob, if you're not mafia, it would be good for the town for you to post more, since it may cause me to change my read on you from mafia to townee. You're not helping anyone by sulking in your corner while we're suspecting you.

otoh, if you're mafia, go on lurking and we can lynch you.

[Changling bob]

So, Someone, after declaring 'this is who we lynch to win, you follow up with 'this is who to lynch to ensure we win mk2' in [274]. But this analysis misses out entirely whatever actions scum may have, ie, the death of anyone relavent to your plan. And why is Gaspode probably dead tomorrow? Does his claiming have mch to do with the current scenario? The only thing that would help is, ironically, if he were a doc who could protect someone (as in a random person, not necessarily Someone ) to make your [274] plan work as you want it to. Even then, thats ignoring any time travelling that may happen.

And yes Nox, I'm lurking, its my normal mode of play: watch whatever's going on without influencing it by opening my big mouth. In fact, its my normal mode of life.

@Fishbulb: Why vote for me rather than doing some analysis of your own? You don't

have

to break the tie, you could help determine the actual guilty party.

[mathcam]

Official End-Of-Day Vote Count

Changling bob (2, Nox, Fishbulb)
Someone (1, Gaspode)

Not Voting: Someone, Changling bob

And with that, Changling Bob (non-townie) has been lynched. Get those night choices in.

Cam

[mathcam]

You awake to find that Someone has been killed overnight. There are no other changes to the timeline. Deadline in 10 days.

Cam

[Nox]

Well, I know that Someone was pro-town. I believe what he said, therefore I cannot incriminate Gaspode.

I really thought that fishbulb was town, until I saw that lynching changling bob didnt end the game.

Vote: Fishbulb

[Fishbulb]

Wait a second. If I was scum, why on earth would I kill Someone? That just doesn't make any sense.

Something to think about here, even if Someone was pro-town and his question was real, there could be a Godfather clause here that made either Gaspode or Nox appear pro-town. With Nox's rush to vote, I would be inclined to think that way.

Also, this does not clear Someone. His death could've been from earlier in the game, likely from a serial killer. Taking that into account, I'm still not even close to being sold on Someone's pro-town-ness. I don't believe his claim in the slightest.

What does all of this mean? I'm pretty definite that Gaspode is as close to being a confirmed innocent as possible in this game. That leaves Nox. Could've been the Godfather that Someone got a bad reading on, or just part of the Mafia with Someone, who just happened to get a lingering kill from earlier in the game. Probably one of those would be more likely if I thought this through enough, but the way I see it, all signs point to Nox.

[Nox]

Someone was not a cop. His results were right, hence why I believe Gaspode is pro-town.

[Nox]

Also, I dont think Someone's death was due to a kill sent forward in time: If so, where was the mafia's kill yesterday night? There would have been two deaths.

[mathcam]

Prodding Gaspode.

[Gaspode]

Unfortunately, I'm going away for 11 days starting tomorrow at 5:00AM, so this is my last post. If I can get on while I'm away, I will, but don't count on it. If a replacement is absolutely necessary, go ahead and get one. I'd much prefer to finish the game, but I'd hate to ruin it too. My vote will stay on Someone for now.

Sorry for not posting, but I did warn you.

I don't have time to post anything good now, as I just got back and can't really function right now.

[Gaspode]

Well, it looks like we've got a 50-50 chance to win here.

I'd like to hear Fishbulb claim before I do anything more. I will claim as soon as I can after that, but I don't want him to have anything more on which to base his claim if he's scum.

After that, I think I'll simply have to do some re-reading to make sure my decision is correct, and then we can end this thing.

[Fishbulb]

Alright. I'm a Townie, and my shield choice was for Night 2.

Vote: Nox

It might be 50-50 to you, Gaspode, but I'm almost positive of your innocence, so I don't see the harm in going ahead and voting. Basically, it's going to come down to what you decide.

Someone was not a cop. His results were right, hence why I believe Gaspode is pro-town.

But we don't know if his results for right. In fact, we haven't received any new information to tell us if he was telling the truth or not since yesterday when the rest of us questioned him. You are so sure he was telling the truth, but even if you are innocent, then you have to understand that he knew you were innocent if he was scum, and that's how he knew to pick you. Because of your eagerness to trust him, and Gaspode's reluctance, I am almost positive that you have to be scum.

Look at it this way, theoretically speaking, what if I came out and said that I'm a cop and that I found you innocent? Either you are scum and you would agree since disagreeing would get you lynched. Or, you are innocent... but that doesn't tell you anything about my alignment.

But this is all moot. It's up to Gaspode at this point.

[Gaspode]

Ok, in case anyone cares, I am a townie as well. Ironically enough, I also sent my time shield to Night 2. Not that any of that matters much, but I did promise to claim.

I've got a tough choice to make. Since the whole game rides on this decision, I will probably need a couple of days to reread. At this point, it might have to come down to pre-Someone-claim stuff. Feel free to make more arguments for your cases. I'm leaning toward voting Fishbulb, but it is by no means definite yet.

[Nox]

As far as I know, There would be only one kill last night, the mafia Kill. The Mafia Killed Someone(He coudlnt kill himself). I highly doubt that it was a kill sent forward in time because if so, it means we are missing the mafia kill for last night. The possibility that the mafia would have sent a kill forward in time at this point is rather slim, since we're in the end game, and it wouldn't of been to the Mafia's advantage. Also, noone claimed vigilante.

If Someone had been scum, he wouldnt have died last night.
I believe Gaspode is town, not just because Someone cleared him. His actions have been the most pro-town ish.

[Nox]

My shield was Night 1, by the way

[Fishbulb]

If Someone had been scum, he wouldnt have died last night.

That is most definitely not true. Obviously we have more than one killing party. You cannot rule Someone out as being scum just because he died, especially with the whole time traveling thing.

[Nox]

Of course, but there was only one kill. I have to assume it was the mafia kill.
Theres only 3 of us left, there.

[Fishbulb]

Hmm... I guess I'm not making myself clear enough.

With the ability to send kills forward in time, added with that the possibility of docs protecting forward in time, and finally, the most important fact that we definitely have more than one killing group, you can't be sure of anything. Theoretically, there could be two killers left here. How are you so sure of what's happening?

I don't believe Someone's role claim; it doesn't make any sense to me in regards to this game. Him dying only proves that he wasn't the only killing party in the game, not that he is, or is not, scum.

But ignoring Someone's alignment and the possibility of a time traveling kill, just look at it this way: If Gaspode was the remaining scum, then he would've killed Nox knowing I would probably not hesitate to vote for Someone. If I were the remaining scum I would've killed Nox as well since he was as suspicious of Someone as myself. If Nox was the remaining scum, she would've killed Gaspode as Someone would've easily joined in to hang me. So who would've killed Someone?