Newbie 1745-fin

[Almost50]

If Almost50 was town, he has no reason to say this. He doesn't even have reason to think this. The thought "if Accountant is town they're a terrible player" wouldn't have entered his mind in the first place, because he would be thinking "I know Skiddish, Col and myself are town, so Accountant MUST be scum.

FALSE, and I've explained it at least TWICE. I do NOT "know". They're town. I just "strongly believe" they are. There is no proof "beyond any reasonable doubt" that we do have a Doctor/RB combination to begin with, but I choose to believe Col at this point is all.

[Accountant]

So you believe Col and Skiddish are town but still go around theorizing about how Accountant would suck soooo much if, IF, just IF they were town

[Almost50]

but i didnt know who he protected

Who he protected should have no bearing on your outcome, as it still could be scum pulled a No Kill gambit. (See? I'm speaking in THEORY and not even referring to YOU as

THE

remaining scumster. Happy?)

[Almost50]

You realize that since SkiddishRaddish and Col are clear, if I succeed in clearing myself

town

a mislynch is guaranteed and SCUM gets an autowin?

Fixed it for you.

[Accountant]

but i didnt know who he protected

Who he protected should have no bearing on your outcome, as it still could be scum pulled a No Kill gambit. (See? I'm speaking in THEORY and not even referring to YOU as

THE

remaining scumster. Happy?)

Not after he revealed the target of the protection was Skiddish. I cannot buy that Skiddish is scum who hammered their buddy over an easy ML day 1 and then got protected on the same night he nokilled

[Almost50]

Lmk was lynched on D3.

I know that. And I was set on lynching him on D2, but then had second thoughts and considered Yume based on my quoted analysis from D2. That's what I'm saying. Then you go quote my posts from D3 which was the day after we had already lynched Yume.

[Accountant]

You realize that since SkiddishRaddish and Col are clear, if I succeed in clearing myself

town

a mislynch is guaranteed and SCUM gets an autowin?

Fixed it for you.

If your point is that scum me has a good reason to fake clear themselves thats fine

But town me has a good reason to clear themselves tok

In other words you need to show why my clearing is scum/fake clear, which you can't since its not

[Accountant]

Lmk was lynched on D3.

I know that. And I was set on lynching him on D2, but then had second thoughts and considered Yume based on my quoted analysis from D2. That's what I'm saying. Then you go quote my posts from D3 which was the day after we had already lynched Yume.

I see.

[Almost50]

*Sigh*

Well, there's no point arguing if we're doing it only between you and me. Let's wait and see if the other 2 players (whom we both agree are Town have to say about this and if they have any questions.

[Col_Hightower]

Still not getting a solid read of either of ye. At this point I think we are better of not having a lynch today

[SkiddishRaddish]

I knew he was scum after the doctor claim came out,

Why "after"? You claimed Col had softed his role earlier and that you caught it, so you did know he was Doctor before he claimed!

Col's soft claim was pretty obvious and I caught on too, I just completely forgot to mention it before his full claim.

Still not getting a solid read of either of ye. At this point I think we are better of not having a lynch today

I don't think that's a good idea. With a deadneck battle between two people, it's almost certainly either you or I dying tonight (or no lynch) which means we'll just be back to where we started. (And likely you'll get lynched at this point since you're power role.)


*Newscaster voice* More commentary at 11.

[Nero Cain]

Accountant

(2)-Col_Hightower, Almost50

Almost50

(2)-Accountant, SkiddishRaddish


With 4 alive it takes 3 to lynch or no lynch.

Day 4 deadline is Monday November 15th @ 8:48 am CST or (expired on 2016-11-15 09:48:06)

[Nero Cain]

I woke up this morning and my throat was sore and I wasn't worried about it but by the time I got back from lunch I had felt even worse. So I've just been resting today. I don't think/hope I'm not coming down with anything but I just wanted to let ppl know whats going on.

If there is a hammer in my absence no unvoting will stop it. I will do my absolute best continue to make timely vote counts and end the game ASAP so I don't leave you guys waiting.

[Col_Hightower]

Hmm.. so I'm being scum read for giving advice and over-explaining. That's a good one!

Ok, no more of that then. Let's just go for the kill. Here's where my mind is at the moment:

Spoiler:

I have previously said there should be 1 Scum in {JammySlplode, doomfeathers, Accountant, TierShift, Col_Hightower, }, and the other in {vytisdrakona, Lmkguy, SkiddishRaddish, Almost50, }

And now I'm building on it.

Tier & Col both left the Jammy wagon. Col vote Tier, and it didn't look like distancing to me, but I already stated there was only one scum in the original Jammy wagon. Tier though switched his vote to me, which could be genuine mistrust or it could be preemptive OMGUS. vytis -on the other hand- voted Tier off the bat, so it “could” be distancing. I will now reassert Tier & Col cannot be scum together, while Tier & vytis could be of the same alignment.

Now this paragraph is a repeat, so it's only used for reassertion: doom & Accountant remained on Jammy. Col returned to the wagon, and now vytis has joined them. If Col is scum it is unlikely that vytis is his partner. If Tier is scum though vytis is very likely his partenr. Put another way, it is now “very likely” Tier and vytis are of the same alignment, and very unlikely that Col is scum with either of them.

So:

Tier + vytis are 90% of the same alignment.

But WAIT. Am I missing the possibility Jammy is Scum hereself?? No, but that doesn't affect the accuracy of the bolded though.

P.S. Please note that I'm using loose terms such as “likely”, “very likely” and “could”, as I can't be 100% positive bc there is always going to be some deviation from the standard probability curves, which I'm only using as a general pointer not an exact tool.

So, Col can only be scum with Lmkguy, SkiddishRaddish or Almost50. I would say Col is 90% Town. Why? Bc Accountant said so based on a meta read. Since I've come to the conclusion Col cannot be scum with Accountant, then the read is accurate regardless. If Accountant is Town they're being sincere and this does look like Col's Town game to them. If Accountant is Scum, and Col can't be Scum with them then Col is still Town.

Back to the Jammy wagon, what worries me more is the fact doom & Accountant are seemingly static votes there. I can even see how Accountant acknowledges Jammy is not likely to respond in a more favourable way under pressure, yet still is applying the same pressure on her after having realized that. doom -on the other hand- isn't even addressing the issue anymore, and seems happy “hiding his vote” at the start of the wagon.

It's like 75% one of these two IS the scum in the first group I had mentioned before. If that's true it puts both Tier &vytis on the clear (bc they're both of the same alignment. Remember?), and knowing my own alignment the other scum should be in Lmkguy/Skiddish in theory, but that's only assuming Jammy will flip Town.

Now let me consider in which case the I'd call all 5 who voted her so far “likely Town” and it would leave me with Lmkguy/Skiddish (again) for the other scum.

I know many of you may object to the pre-flip association stuff, and some will also try to discredit the theories of deduction I'm applying here, but it's cool. This is just to show where my mind is at and why. How I reached these conclusions is my own business, and whether I'm right or wrong is yet to be seen.

Q: @doom / @Accountant
Care to explain why your votes have been static this long on an slot that isn't responding? You neither are moving them nor are you pushing to finalize the lynch 9if that's what you aim for). WHY?

Almost I was looking back through the game and noticed something you said in the spoiler. Why at this point did you split the group up and put yourself and SkiddishRaddish as the possible 2nd scum

[SkiddishRaddish]

Been having trouble finding time to get a solid relook on this. If I can't get one by Friday night-ish I'll replace out because that's not fair to ya'll.

Col, where specifically are you looking at for your question?

[Accountant]

*wibbles in*

*wibbles out*

[Col_Hightower]

1st paragraph of the spoiler

[Almost50]

@Col:

OK, first solid point of my own scum hunting:

If Jammy is Town: 1 Scum in {doomfeathers, Accountant, TierShift, Col_Hightower, }

If Jammy is Scum though, all 4 are very likely Town (no bussing occurs this early in Newbie Games)

Let me try again:

There's likely to be ONE scum in the 4 currently NOT voting Jammy, regardless (those 4 theoretically include me, so it's actually 3 for each of the townies in this group). The other scum is either Jammy or one of the 4 voters.

Does this look better for easy comprehension??

*Sigh*

[Col_Hightower]

You still put yourself in that other grouping

[Almost50]

Let me try again:

There's likely to be ONE scum in the 4 currently NOT voting Jammy, regardless (

those 4

theoretically

include me, so it's

actually 3 for each

of the townies in this group

).

[Almost50]

There's a difference between how you post to help people to work things out and how you post to just tell them how you do it. I assumed everyone would want to be in my shoes trying to see it my way, so I had to include myself bc to anyone who is not me (but is still town) the "other 3" would include me.

[Almost50]

If I didn't include myself the very first thing I will be asked would've been: "and why are you cleared?", which would've been a reasonable question from any other person who is not me, and then I would have had to explain that I was only posting from my own perspective and that everyone needed to adjust to their own perspective, which would have defied the whole purpose and made it less than a "simple statement".

[Nero Cain]

Accountant, Nero Cain and SkiddishRaddish have been prodded

[SkiddishRaddish]

Gonna reread the game and see if I got an opinion change now, sorry for the wait.

[Col_Hightower]

Almost I can understand that but to me it will always be the 2 scum were on the same lynch