Newbie 2034 | Space II | Over

[UneducatedGuesser]

From my perspective, irrespective of what they themselves have done in the game, the actions of the confirmed red player during D1 suggests to me that they would have been happy to see both Tay and Flea flipped.

RC was willing to flashwagon Flea just before deadline, when he knew a green player was flipping anyway, and he was willing to put Tay at -1 during D1. These are plays that make no sense for the confirmed red player to do to his partner during D1 IMO, so knowing HIS play was motivated from a scum perspective, I have to assume that both slots are green.

That being the case, last red's gotta be in TL and Glitch from how I look at it. TL is, as already stated, my first instinct, so I'm going to have to reread Glitch and see what I see there, especially with the slot being where it is now.

Discuss amongst yourselves. I've gotta go to work in a hot minute. Will do a full reread tonight.

[Glitch]

You've dropped a bit of AtE too. "Kill flea tomorrow if you kill me today!" - what kind of place does this come from? You realise tomorrow is LyLo? Probably the one time vengelynching is least appropriate and EVERYONE should be taking a step back and re-evaluating reads.

Scumslip or hypothetical here, flea? If you believe I'm scum, then why would we be in LyLo tomorrow when I flip? If I'm scum wouldn't it be game over?

Regardless of the answer to that, that was neither an AtE nor a request for vengelynching. You had not voted me yet and I'm not all up in my emotions about your read on me. I genuinely believe you're scum; therefore if I flip today and scum kills off another VT tomorrow, then

because

we are in LyLo, they need to lunch you because you're the scum. TS is my top TR left and if she doesn't get NKd tonight she will vote you tomorrow. You will vote her. That means someone in {TL + UG} will be the swing vote and it is my hope that they will see that you're scum and vote you off.

My read on you is a combination of your own isolated scumminess and a heavy dose of PoE. And before anyone makes the argument that PoE is not the best way to handle late game, I completely disagree. Since my replace in, my read on both of our flips (Echo and RC) have been spot on with the combination of scum hunting AND PoE/Town hunting. I was heavily TRing Echo my entire catchup and I had a SR and declared intent to hammer RC before I even picked up on the fact that echo had softed his guilty on RC. If you think that's scum performance that's fine but I'm not the only one who didn't catch it (TS didn't either) and then adjust accordingly after it became clear.

I am confident TS is town.
UG and TL are mid range for me.
You are moderately scummy.

That places my confidence very high in your alignment. So of course, if I flip green, I want the other 2 who survive till tomorrow to lunch you. That is neither AtE not emotional vengelynching at you cause I'm mad that you killed me off. That is playing to town wincon.

[Glitch]

Let me go check on how much time is left to deadline. I may restore my alignment tally if there's time.

[UneducatedGuesser]

Got about 3 days

[Glitch]

3 days left. That's good. If I get killed off before, oh well, but if I stick around a little bit longer I will probably re-read through the game since my replace in and post an updated tally and solve. I also want to re-read RC on Flea to consider this UG defense of flea, but doing so would mean the scum is TL which is hard for me to believe based on my meta understanding of TL.

[UneducatedGuesser]

It's possible it's theatrics, I can get fooled by that, it's happened before. Maybe RC made the judgment that it couldn't happen and was just making a distancing play and it's fooling me.

That, however, would be a gamble for RC to pull in the scenario, IMO. If Andy turns back up in the thread before Echo hammers I see no way he doesn't join along with the Flea wagon and vote that way, even if just to ensure he wasn't the one getting mislimed. At that point we've got 4 of 5 and votes start shifting which would have meant Echo would have to go along just to avoid a no-hammer. Flea also wouldn't have had time to claim in that spot either so it's not like they would have been able to drag out any PR info from it.

Also, RC was the one person in the game I've played with before, and literally in that game a similar D1 situation came up where there were three wagons that got to -1 in the final 24 hours and the guy who ended up getting the elim was the guy who got flashwagoned pretty much out of nowhere after being everyone's second or third choice all day, not the ones that had actually drawn most of the voting during the game and looked most likely. I grant, said wagon started with more time to go (about 15-16 hours) but it made it to -1 and intent fast enough to be applicable to this situation.

I feel that memory was fresh enough in my head to be fresh in his and he'd know how dangerous a momentum shift like that could be if it was aimed at his partner, so this is a little bit meta on my end too.

D2 I know RC was kind of hesitant about Flea, but he was also trying to get Echo flipped and thought he could drag Tay and others along on the basis of Echo's hammer on Andy (plus continuing his D1 push on Echo), not to mention he was getting hard wagoned by that point himself.

[Plotinus]

Official Vote Count 3.02

Eagle Aurora over Norway
Image Credit & Copyright: Bjørn Jørgensen via NASA

Elimination

With 5 votes in play, it takes 3 to eliminate somebody.

Glitch

(2): Tayl0r Swift, Flea The Magician

Flea The Magician

(1): Glitch

Not Voting

(2): Town looter, UneducatedGuesser

Deadline:

(expired on 2020-10-29 18:45:00).

Mod notes:

Sorry for disappearing, I haven't been feeling well since Thursday. It looks like nobody but me needing prodding though, so that's good[/area]

[Tayl0r Swift]

its either flea or glitch. im leaning glitch as of now, but it really doesnt matter. if we get it wrong we still win tomorrow.

[Flea The Magician]

Spoiler: Glitches mentions of me, D3 - surprisingly focused despite have a solve of me or UG

ok i think its massclaim time. i propose we make flea go first, then glitch, then TL, then UG. im fine with being anywhere in that order.

I agree with this list inserting you after flea and before me.

Calling a vote for mass claim order:

Flea
TS
Glitch
Looter
UG

Yay or nay?

Vote Yes

As long as Flea is first I'm fine with UG being anywhere. Sounds like:

Flea
Ug
Ts
Glitch
TL

Yes?

Flea, you're first. Claim up.

I'm annoyed that we can't get on the same page and literally don't care when I claim as long as Flea goes first. I wrote out a short post and claimed just now but then deleted it because I don't want to look scummy for claiming out of the general consensus' order.

TL don't claim yet bro. At this snails pace mass claim is moving we won't get to you until Monday anyway.

Flea please claim.

Hey glitch, you know some people sleep right? Asking me to claim twice in 5 hours [with the second one with added emphasis] isn't going to magically make me appear. Someones keen...

You are too nitpicky when people make small oversights. The added emphasis is not because you weren't claiming but because we could not get an agreed-upon consensus on the order for claims. Being snarky is unnecessary.

--

TS will be massively unhappy with this popcorn order if we wait on TL but it's fine with me either way. Keep me posted UG.

Flea + UG is my solve. I think that's where I'll be voting today.

Flea + UG is my solve. I think that's where I'll be voting today.

You realise we've already had a flip, right? Your solve is impossible.

Once I've had my response from UG I'll be looking at where my vote goes.

Yes, the remaining scum is within {Flea + UG}. What is your solve?

If UG is scum, he's doing a good job digging himself out of the pit he was in.

VOTE: Flea

If you kill me today then just make sure to kill flea tomorrow during 2v1.

Hopefully we can just flip flea

For someone with 2 potentials pre UGs response, this seems pretty well focused. Also if you were leaning scum on UG, why have them claim last? Surely the protown play would be to have your SRs claim first to prevent thinking time?

You've dropped a bit of AtE too. "Kill flea tomorrow if you kill me today!" - what kind of place does this come from? You realise tomorrow is LyLo? Probably the one time vengelynching is least appropriate and EVERYONE should be taking a step back and re-evaluating reads.

Scumslip or hypothetical here, flea? If you believe I'm scum, then why would we be in LyLo tomorrow when I flip? If I'm scum wouldn't it be game over?

Hypothetical, I'm not a perfect being and I can be wrong. Always plan worst case scenario. In this case the assumption was you were successful and the vote on me went through.

Regardless of the answer to that, that was neither an AtE nor a request for vengelynching. You had not voted me yet and I'm not all up in my emotions about your read on me. I genuinely believe you're scum; therefore if I flip today and scum kills off another VT tomorrow, then

because

we are in LyLo, they need to lunch you because you're the scum. TS is my top TR left and if she doesn't get NKd tonight she will vote you tomorrow. You will vote her. That means someone in {TL + UG} will be the swing vote and it is my hope that they will see that you're scum and vote you off.

You can't say for sure I will vote her. Like I said, LyLo is the time to step back and re-evaluate. Taylor seems to be wanting to question her read on me and honestly I'm getting the feeling we're just incompatible play styles. [Which, I haven't forgotten you Taylor, response coming when spoons available to re-read the game.]

My read on you is a combination of your own isolated scumminess and a heavy dose of PoE. And before anyone makes the argument that PoE is not the best way to handle late game, I completely disagree. Since my replace in, my read on both of our flips (Echo and RC) have been spot on with the combination of scum hunting AND PoE/Town hunting. I was heavily TRing Echo my entire catchup and I had a SR and declared intent to hammer RC before I even picked up on the fact that echo had softed his guilty on RC. If you think that's scum performance that's fine but I'm not the only one who didn't catch it (TS didn't either) and then adjust accordingly after it became clear.

I am confident TS is town.
UG and TL are mid range for me.
You are moderately scummy.

That places my confidence very high in your alignment. So of course,

if I flip green

, I want the other 2 who survive till tomorrow to lunch you. That is neither AtE not emotional vengelynching at you cause I'm mad that you killed me off. That is playing to town wincon.

Wouldn't mind seeing a rebuild of your "chart" and how it's changed, along with notes you've made. Oh, and I

will

flip green if lynched for the record, no if about it.

[Plotinus]

Town Looter¹ has been prodded and has (expired on 2020-10-28 16:23:25) to post before I start looking for a replacement.

[Town looter]

Ok, sorry guys. Life has been hectic, either I catch up and live up to my previous promises today or I will ask to be replaced. I feel partly responsible for this game stalling.

[Glitch]

I really wanted to get some time in on this game today but just didn't. Sorry folks. I'll do the best I possibly can to get a re-analyzed readslist up tomorrow before the deadline. No promises but I am gonna do my best.

[UneducatedGuesser]

Ok... I've tried rereading this a few times and my brain is not coming up with anything new. So...

@Tay: I know why Flea, why Glitch though? What are you seeing on that slot?

@TL and Glitch: You've both said that you've meta-read each other as town, can you both detail why, and how much confidence you have in it? (Hopefully you both get some time to get into this)

@Flea: You've said plenty about everyone else left in game, what's your read on TL, if you don't mind?

[Tayl0r Swift]

@UG: you and TL are town. i think its flea, but it could be glitch.

[Tayl0r Swift]

apparently my vote is on glitch which suggests there are some recent posts that pinged me. i can go see what they were if you want. but ill happily do flea today if you promise to do glitch tomorrow. thats part of it i think. im worried that we do flea today, flea flips town, i die tonight, and glitch wins because other people are less confident in UG and TL being town.

[UneducatedGuesser]

Flea feels... if I look at what I said about EoD1 and the attempted flashwagon we had... I dunno. I put myself in RC's position and I don't jump in on it like he did if my scumbuddy's the target, not when I don't have to and not doing it costs me nothing. Not even about Flea, it just feels like if Flea was RC's partner here then RC almost did them real dirty unless they knew it wouldn't get the votes.

Never mind Glitch, actually, why are you so sure TL's town here? Everything from him just feels so noncommittal.

[Tayl0r Swift]

hmm on a reread im much less confident in TL!town. im gonna have to sleep on it and see. but i dont wanna flip TL today. maybe i dont wanna flip glitch either.
i guess VOTE: flea

[Town looter]

Ok... I've tried rereading this a few times and my brain is not coming up with anything new. So...

@Tay: I know why Flea, why Glitch though? What are you seeing on that slot?

@TL and Glitch: You've both said that you've meta-read each other as town, can you both detail why, and how much confidence you have in it? (Hopefully you both get some time to get into this)

@Flea: You've said plenty about everyone else left in game, what's your read on TL, if you don't mind?

Very quickly, and without going into the thread: the bulk of my meta read is based on what I think is his town-tell (which will soon be null based on me calling it out... but I think not right now): he subscribes numbers and precision to things. First thing he did upon arrival was draw up a table of scum points and town points. He did something similar (a crazy VC[over]A with percentage chance of being scum as the result) in the game I recently played with him. The reason this stands out for me is I am an analytical person myself and I find it quite funny how precise his numbers are (very likely false precision of course).

That being said a couple of things you guys (gender neutral use of term) pointed out recently pinged a little, so I am going to give him a re-read after I have done Flea and Taylor ISOs.

[Town looter]

Ok, just went through Taylor ISO, with RC folded in there. I have a bunch of notes which I can type up tomorrow, but for now I feel fairly confident I know where last scum is (pending Glitch and Flea re-read).

Watch out UG, there's some more non-committal maybe-maybe-maybe logic coming up

So two possible scenarios surround Taylor:

• They are town and read Echo and RC horribly wrong, or
  
• They are scum and are outrageously audacious and very proficient at scum theatre

I think it is the former (although I am only fairly confident, not 100%); and the reason why is their interactions with RC: They are brazen in their alignment and pushing of the same target (Echo), it's almost like they are trying to buddy each other (examples: 192/194 and 349, and shit if they are a scum team posts 527 and 529 are genuinely adorable). I may be newish, but this seems just too much in terms of associations - surely scum would be nervous of these linkages and instead try to distance?

That being said, Taylor

has

been pushing town, often pushing very hard, and resisted the RC wagon...

Right now (unless someone wants to chime in and say "dude, those associations are a straight up scum tells") I think Taylor most likely town.

Working on previous reads, that leaves Flea. I want to read Flea and Glitch and maybe even UG if I have time before I vote/hammer, but if deadline was five minutes away, that's where i'd be voting.

[Flea The Magician]

@Flea: You've said plenty about everyone else left in game, what's your read on TL, if you don't mind?

Town. The initial wagon on the slot stank of manure, nothing from this slot since replacement has not sat well with me or warrented further investigation.

Why the switch taylor? That vote stinks and you know it.

Pain day again. Going to do what I can because this ones going to be a dick to recover from.

[Flea The Magician]

Spoiler: Reads? Null answered

Nay, I was UG right up top with me and Taylor.


Taylor, while I remember, give you were keen on associative tells going both ways between me and echo, whats your thoughts on the Echo flip and has it changed any reads of yours?

yeah i think echo is probably town now.

Spoiler: I think this might be Taylors supposed "interaction" with me? wasn't answered fully and not followed up on that I can see

Right now, Echo's lookin pretty town. Solid case built, has been pushing the right buttons. Not exactly smelling of roses, but still smelling a lot better than you. Speaking of you, some have asked questions you've ignored and you've used trap questions to manipulate us into a scummy position.

I'll repeat the questions for you...

Taylor what are your thoughts on RC enabling Echo to hammer Andy yesterday after saying they felt uncomfortable being on the Andy wagon with Echo on it?

Whats your opinion on UneducatedGuesser and the points that myself and 72 raised?

What's your current read on them?

You've already dismissed looking at him today, why? Are you so confident in your D1 reads that you've got this cracked already?

Care to build a solid case on me? One that isn't based on trap questions, misinformation and non-existant information?

so what are your opinions on everything i said about RC

You've avoided these questions like they're about to burn you into oblivion.
You next post wants to be answers to the above.

1)meh. prolly not AI.
2)UG is town. ive said that. yeah im confident that UG is town. i have built a solid case on you. stop trying to spin things. if you thought my case was that scummy youd be pushing me, but you arent. you again show that youre scum.
3) meh maybe. not my most confident townread. but like.... im never gonna vote anyone other than you and echo today.

1) AI?
2) Nothing on the points me and 72 raised?
2i) Nothing on why you've dismissed looking at him today? Scared, perhaps?
3) Fair, tunnel away.
4) Unanswered, again.

You're scum, simple. You're doing nothing but evade and take potshots. Where's this mythical case, exactly? That isn't misinformation and trap questioning? I haven't dropped any AtE that I'm aware of.

Thing is, as I know you're scum, I still have your buddy to find - which I strongly suspect is UG, so I'm off digging where I need to find information. You're just coming to me with information on you

While I'm here,

letting them both escape after everything theyve done since the hammer yesterday is beyond idiocy.

What did I do exactly? I've already asked you this btw "interactions" will need expanding on

Spoiler: Flea:Gimme dat content. TS: no.

Care to build a solid case on me? One that isn't based on trap questions, misinformation and non-existant information?

Somewhere, TS claims to have made a case on me. All I find is associative tells, Echos "defence by hammer" and just reads me as scummy.

I'm reaching pain tolerance at this point and my attention is struggling, but, having looked through the game again... wow glitch. just wow.

Spoiler: Posts that caught my attention in Glitch ISO

Trap questions don't count.
You're still avoiding questions beings asked of you.

If you're town being honest and truthful then you have nothing to worry about by answering questions that would trap scum.

I just read Echos hammer and the leadup and I just really don't think it's scummy. He's sheeping 72 and it was almost deadline. Hammer was the right thing to do.

Regardless of the weird shift Taylor just expressed, RC is the right way to go today.

Intent to Hammer RC

RC 2 of us have intent to hammer you. Please claim.

*rereads thread*
*kicks self in butt*

*Intent to Hammer Greatly Intensifies*

Is there any reason to even wait for a claim or should I just speedhammer?

Hey glitch, you know some people sleep right? Asking me to claim twice in 5 hours [with the second one with added emphasis] isn't going to magically make me appear. Someones keen...

You are too nitpicky when people make small oversights. The added emphasis is not because you weren't claiming but because we could not get an agreed-upon consensus on the order for claims. Being snarky is unnecessary.

--

TS will be massively unhappy with this popcorn order if we wait on TL but it's fine with me either way. Keep me posted UG.

If UG is scum, he's doing a good job digging himself out of the pit he was in.

VOTE: Flea

Not necessarily?

C1 setup would have all the town telling the truth.

I honestly didn't see that there was VT in the table. I thought all set ups were with 2 town PRs.

Hopefully we can just flip flea

TS you should know I don't pay attention to setups and forget things easily

Actually
UNVOTE: RC

With intent to revote there again in a few hours

As I read through the game, I kept track of each down ping, scum ping, and null ping to calculate alignments.

My solve is below based on reads, including how I was reading the slots that have now been flipped, before they did.

• Echo: +10 Town Points
  {Confidence: A}
  
• Taylor: +6 Town Points
  {Confidence: A}
  
• 72offsuit: +6 Town Points
  {Confidence: B}
  
• Andy: +1 Town Point
  {Confidence: C}
  
• Billie: 0 Town Points
  {Confidence: A}
  
• Canadian: 0 Town Points
  {Confidence: F}
  
• TL: -2 Town Points*
  {Confidence: B}
  
• Flea: -2 Town Points
  {Confidence: A}
  
• UG: -4 Town Points
  {Confidence: B}

[spoiler removed > *Notes on TL Slot surrounding replacement:]

TL: -2 Town Points before replacement / 0 Town Points After Replacement / -2 Town Points Overall

{Confidence: A+ Before Replacement / A After Replacement / B Overall}[/spoiler removed]
VOTE: UG
Lockscum. Join me, TS and Echo.

OK so using Taylors thing of "Scum can't read each other", we know Canadian was a red flip.
The RC bus and unvote to buy time for a "better" wagon is amazing, [while making note theres still intent to revote later, why? D1 didn't end until the last moment with Echo's hammer] then the realisation that there's no escape from this, starts asking town about options and if they should just hammer and get on with it or try and buy time [whoo towniecred!]
UG is a -4 scumread, but suddenly one good response and "Oh look UG isn't scum anymore!" Ok - fine - reads *are* dynamic, but I honestly get the feeling Glitch is running at the easiest lynch they can get rn.
The "I didn't read the setup!" seems sketchy af to me for someone with more than enough experience to be SE. Have seen this pulled in other games so not much to read into here, it just really doesn't sit well with me.


Taylor, this is what happened as you changed vote.

That means 1 town and 1 scum lied.

youre better than faking a townslip. hmmm maybe flea is town after all and its glitch. its for sure either flea or glitch.

i was hoping the remaining scum would fake-claim doctor knowing no CC was coming.

[Glitch]

I'm going into work now and will make this game too priority as soon as I'm off.

[Glitch]

weird how all of these posts about either taylor or RC seem to be linked together... definitely something to look into d3 when i'm dead and RC flips red

[Glitch]

i'm sleepy, don't want to fall asleep and no hammer today
VOTE: andy

this post is literally all we need to nail echo as scum. town never hammers when momentum is building on a new wagon. echo didnt want flea to be the lunch. flea and echo are refusing to give reads on each other. notice how they ignore each other. theyre classic scumbuddies.

RC is town.

I'm trying to sort how to read this now. Are TS's reads just that bad on Echo and RC or is she scum trying to throw shade on Echo and protect RC?

[Glitch]

this wagon is dumb.

Is scum TS this blatant or does this point to TS being town?