Newbie 1768: Party Mafia - Game over!

[GuiltyLion]

Recent posts make me think that GL (or maybe Sparkles, but this is less likely) is trying to set me up for a mislynch in lylo after bussing their partner Revan.

oh wait where have I heard this before

Your vote says that you think I'm scum, but the first post is talking to me as if my intentions are honest. What exactly is your read on me, and why?

Your posts after my 866 match the way I would expect scum!SS partnered with Revan to play. Giving yourself room to move over to him if necessary today while setting up to mislynch me tomorrow, or get the win by lynching me today instead.

S_S is seeing now that the Revan lynch is gonna go through and now she's pushing the lynch on me tomorrow

[GuiltyLion]

The cycle of faltering/uncertainty on him was enough to make me think a partnership was possible, but not enough for me to think your 905 was justified.

frankly I'm just going to play the experience card here and tell you flat out that my 905 was absolutely justified. I've played a ton of games here and I know how to identify a player saying one thing but voting/doing another. If it's late in the game and you are not voting your top scumread then something is off.

[Agent Sparkles]

Forgot to respond to this part:

And I don't understand your last sentence - short of a night action result, how can you ever be 100% sure of someone's guilt?

You can't, which is why it's reckless. And if I thought your "you should be voting your scumreads by now"' argument had any merit, the lynch would already be in SS and EL's hands.

[Sobolev Space]

@Revan - I'd like your comments on me v GL.

[Revan]

Scum team is GL/EL.

[SirCakez]

Votecount 3.4 (unchanged)

Revan (2) - GuiltyLion, tojam2
GuiltyLion (1) - Sobolev Space

Not voting (3) - EccentricLemon, Agent Sparkles, Revan

With 6 alive, it takes 4 votes to lynch someone.

(expired on 2017-02-17 17:22:00) remain until day end

[Sobolev Space]

Why?

[tojam2]

Prodge, my vote is staying where it is. @Revan saying that mislynching you will end the game sounds so desperate it hurts.

[Agent Sparkles]

rip this game

[Agent Sparkles]

@Revan

Spoiler: Still waiting on responses

And you're really the last person that should be accusing people based on incoherence, Revan. You still haven't given any sort of defense for your inconsistencies regarding Lemon on day 1, besides dismissing them as "not alignment indicative" after multiple dodges.

@bowdown I was townreading EL on page 2. Why do you believe that that read is still current? It looks like you're stretching now.

I only have a slight TR on EL, so I don't mind.

I was voting my scumread. You're really grasping for straws here.

I believe EL will flip 60% green 40% red.

I scumread both of you.

How are self-contradictions like this not alignment indicative?

I've touched on what AgentSparkles said in #370#387. I definitely do agree that Revan seems lost and falling short in his attempts to seem town. I don't see his scumhunts as genuine. He jumped on the bandwagon AGAIN after it was made pretty clear that last time he did that, he was labeled as suspicious. Not to mention this exchange:

VOTE: EL

I think this has a higher chance of being scum than Titus

You've made one post about EL's phrasing. I don't think you realize the reason you can't convince people to join you on EL is because you're not making a case.

What's changed between now and then?

I agreed with Titus's case.

???????? This is just a blatant contradiction. Between ~679 and when he votes me, Revan asks Titus multiple times to provide evidence and then states that the evidence she's providing isn't enough. (See #664#679#682#695) This is definitely something worth looking into.

@Revan - why the town read on me?

Scum is in {GL, EL, AS}

yes, this post tells us so much about who you want to lynch today and why you think they're scum

[EccentricLemon]

Scum team is GL/EL.

Oh so we're going to go down this road again. I've already proved why it's unlikely that you changed your mind, since you specifically said Titus' theory doesn't make any sense. Sounds to me like you're trying to instigate a wagon against GL and I to save yourself.

[EccentricLemon]

Are you trying to seem like Titus because she flipped town? Because if you ask me, her behavior was pretty scummy. Therefore this makes yours seem double scummy to me.

[Revan]

@The people that want to lynch me today, who do you think my partner is?

I only tr SS because of bowdown

[Sobolev Space]

@The people that want to lynch me today, who do you think my partner is?

This question has absolutely no pro-town purpose.

Revan is scum.

[EccentricLemon]

@The people that want to lynch me today, who do you think my partner is?

I only tr SS because of bowdown

I honestly could see AS being your partner because of your unwillingness to answer his analysis, which was pretty extensive.
I think SS could also work, but I keep getting closer and closer to a townread on her. However, Revan has been retaliating to the people that want to lynch him, of which SS is one of the most vocal, and then places a townread on her. I would expect more of a retaliation in this case.
I could also see GL tbh, because he seems a lot less concerned with pushing Revan than he did Titus. I think that partnership is a bit less likely though considering that Titus flipped town and he is probably just being cautious.
Don't take this statement as an assertion that I think AS, GL, and SS are scum. I'm merely pointing out scenarios and explaining that I'm still suspicious of all of them.

I still can't wrap my head around why scum would go for Tojam. It just doesn't make sense. They went for an obvious extension of the game, which plays to town's advantage. I think we're dealing with noob scum here.
I'd just like to get this out there: is it possible that scum could have chosen not to kill last night to make Tojam seem town? It's way out there and it's highly unlikely this happened, but it's still something to keep in mind. I think it's more likely that scum is noob though.

Revan has tried to use a wagon against me to his advantage twice now, he keeps changing his opinion without any obvious analysis, and above all, he seems to be trying to emulate Titus' gameplay yesterday. Revan is my highest scumread right now, but I still don't want to lynch when we still have a few days' time.

[Sobolev Space]

@EL - scum going for tojam makes sense imo. Even though they lose a NK we're still likely no-lynching tomorrow in mylo (assuming Revan is scum). They still get two NKs vs. two lynches. The cost for them is an extra day of discussion while the benefit is one less strongly TR-ed player in lylo.

If tojam is alive tomorrow his chances of being scum get a lot higher.

[Sobolev Space]

@Revan - I'd still like for you to explain your read on GL in more depth.

[GuiltyLion]

@Revan - I'd still like for you to explain your read on GL in more depth.

why? If he's scum then everything he says is just going to be WIFOM anyway

I don't see how this is a protown question

[GuiltyLion]

I'd just like to get this out there: is it possible that scum could have chosen not to kill last night to make Tojam seem town? It's way out there and it's highly unlikely this happened, but it's still something to keep in mind. I think it's more likely that scum is noob though.

Scum are allowed to no-kill, but I don't think that's what happened here. The thing about Tojam's BP claim that makes him essentially conftown is that he made the claim before anyone else had claimed yet, and he still hasn't been CC'd.

Knowing now that we had a JKer, we are either in column A or Row 1. If he were scum in column A, he would have been CC'd by now (and probably when he first made the claim). If we are in Row 1 and tojam is scum, then from scum perspective he could have been in B, C, 1, or 3 when he made the claim, and he just happened to hit the one setup where nobody could CC him. It's technically possible, but highly unlikely. Scum usually only pull the fake-BP claim when the JK is already revealed or flipped and they know it's a safe claim. If they're in goon-goon and they think they're going down, they're more likely to claim something like Doctor to get the high priority night kill PRs (JKer or Doctor) to out themselves.

[Sobolev Space]

@GL - do you think my question was anti-town or AI?

I'll provide more justification once Revan responds.

[Agent Sparkles]

@The people that want to lynch me today, who do you think my partner is?

This question has absolutely no pro-town purpose.

Revan is scum.

I could maybe see it coming from town if he wanted to show that partnerships involving him were unlikely, but even that's a stretch given how he hasn't done crap to convince everyone that he isn't the right lynch for today.

I still can't wrap my head around why scum would go for Tojam. It just doesn't make sense. They went for an obvious extension of the game, which plays to town's advantage. I think we're dealing with noob scum here.
I'd just like to get this out there: is it possible that scum could have chosen not to kill last night to make Tojam seem town? It's way out there and it's highly unlikely this happened, but it's still something to keep in mind. I think it's more likely that scum is noob though.

I'm trying to decide whether I think this is a LAMIST act or genuine confusion. I think it's strange that you brought it up at such a random time, and I don't really think that hitting him would harm scum (for reasons already outlined by SS plus the fact that we aren't making a lot of progress anyway), but I can see the thought process behind this.

And yes, tojam could mathematically be scum, but it would've required him, as an experienced player who should know not to take unnecessary risks like this, to guess that there's a jailkeeper but no bulletproof in the game (already very low), actually be right and not get countered (even lower), and nonetheless do it halfway through the day while he was at L-2 and no one had posted anything like an intent to hammer (lower still).

TL;DR: There exists somewhere a universe were tojam is scum, but the chances are so tiny that it would take a flat-out confession for me to vote him.

[Agent Sparkles]

@The people that want to lynch me today, who do you think my partner is?

I think EL>SS>GL at the moment. I can back this up soon but I'm going to bed for now

[Agent Sparkles]

TL;DR: There exists somewhere a universe where tojam is scum, but the chances are so tiny that it would take a flat-out confession for me to vote him.

Typo edit

[EccentricLemon]

I guess I'm just being super paranoid. Sorry tojam for being all on your tail.

[tojam2]

@SS: Problem now is that scum leave me alive tonight as lynchbait for tomorrow (#940)