Newbie 2038: Elements [Game Over]

Umlaut · Post Post #1750 (ISO) » Sun Dec 06, 2020 9:45 am

Vote Count 5.1

Strontium, ₃₈Sr

— alkaline earth metal, standard atomic weight 87.62, group 2, period 5, s-block

Not voting

(3): Mizzytastic, safebet222, Egix96

With 3 alive, it takes 2 votes to eliminate.

Deadline:

(expired on 2020-12-11 14:50:00)

safebet222 · Post Post #1751 (ISO) » Sun Dec 06, 2020 9:46 am

Ok... Sorry I misunderstood.

safebet222 · Post Post #1752 (ISO) » Sun Dec 06, 2020 9:50 am

So... Where are you at now then, Mizzy?

Mizzytastic · Post Post #1753 (ISO) » Mon Dec 07, 2020 11:28 am

looking at muh wasn't especially helpful. He's on c4, suspicious of egix d1, you end of d2 but mostly just ... very omgusy. I could believe that he died for his reads in the world where either of you are scum. It leads egix just because it's d1.

I'm pretty sure ff's play around 72 was to do with trying to get him to a final situation where he is likely to get votes. I dunno if Egix votes there d2 if that strategy is going?

I also feel like c4 was trying to line up Egix d2, but it's hard to tell if it was distancing or lining up an elim cos he didn't say much then replaced out, and ff's approach to Egix was clearly different. I tend towards the later just because I was the other person c4 pushed for the interactions with cyl and it felt like the d2 shift was to the easier target.

I feel like the ff metadive on Egix was based on the assumption he's likely to get to a final situation and it creates a whole bunch of WIFOM. But that plays either way, and I feel like it's a pretty safe bet for d3 ff to guess she dies before either of you two. I don't remember any significant interactions between you two other than you both ending up on muh.

I do remember feeling odd about how you encouraged me to vote muh - responding to something I said mid d1 mid d2 and maybe also playing on my paranoia about 72 pocketing me - but I need to go check that second bit, I feel like JDye said it first and you second but I'd have to go check. If I'm right on ff's strategy on 72 it could be a sign of partnership cos 72 probably just dies d2 if you are voting there (and he's not a pr, but scum clearly didn't think he was at the time)

If I vote you and I'm wrong I feel stupid cos between the two of you you look more town at face value. If I vote Egix and i'm wrong I kick myself cos my gut has been saying it's you since the ff flip and I've not had the spoons to make that case.

I want to vote you over Egix, but I'm struggling to vote either of you over my anxiety of being wrong.

Mizzytastic · Post Post #1754 (ISO) » Mon Dec 07, 2020 11:31 am

I'm also kinda bugged by feeling you aren't acting like someone who feels like it's pretty damn obvious which one of us is scum, which you are professing to be your position - but that could just be you being nice and giving everyone the time of day

safebet222 · Post Post #1755 (ISO) » Mon Dec 07, 2020 4:06 pm

Mizzy... it's a game... do your best and if you're right, we'll all celebrate, and if you're wrong, try again. And if you're scum... go to hell

I, for one, won't be blaming you for making a wrong choice, if that's how it turns out. I will be asking myself what didn't I do to convince you I'm town. How do you think I'll feel if I end up voting Egix and you're scum??? Getting duped is a part of the game...

Spoiler:

In short, Mizzy... I'm town... MC thought so, even 72 thought so for a while (and he scumread everyone for the most part). I hope I've done enough to convince you, too. I'm trying my best to solve the game. As for the last part that's bothering you, I don't know what to say... I don't see any good reason in being an ass to Egix and only see interacting with him as a positive. Besides Wisconsin nice, remember.

Egix96 · Post Post #1756 (ISO) » Mon Dec 07, 2020 9:29 pm

In post 1755, safebet222 wrote:Mizzy... it's a game... do your best and if you're right, we'll all celebrate, and if you're wrong, try again. And if you're scum... go to hell I, for one, won't be blaming you for making a wrong choice, if that's how it turns out. I will be asking myself what didn't I do to convince you I'm town. How do you think I'll feel if I end up voting Egix and you're scum??? Getting duped is a part of the game...

Spoiler:
Day 1

218 Why do I move my vote from cyl at E-2 to a new wagon 72 with more than half the day gone if I'm scum? Wouldn't I have left it there a while longer to see if it doesn't get further traction?

336 Why am I going to push to consolidate at the end of D1 if I'm scum when all of the viable wagons are town? Wouldn't I just let it play out?

346
(1)
Why am I gong to call out scum!C4's push to get a second claim out of town!muh here if I'm scum?

Day 2

I made my case against muh because I thought his play was scummy. He was only defending himself and not really contributing in anyway. I think MC pointed out that muh was probably targeted as a possible PR because of 364.

Also, why wouldn't I find some reason to change my vote to cyl if I'm scum especially after Egix basically asked me to in post 462.

You noted in post 716 what town!me motivations for the Muh push are. I had been town reading you all game so why wouldn't I ask you to help me push Muh? I was trying to build a town block.

Day 3

I have to admit... looking back at D3, there isn't much to like.
(2)
But I'll refer to MC noting that posts 1304, 1305, 1377 and 1379 are town tells. Besides, I townread MC hence post 1310...

Day 4

I am trying to figure out here via POE who is more likely scum. Again I was wrong... as was MC... I doing that again today, despite you saying that scum!me would try to get Egix elimm'd. There isn't really anything else here I can say...

In short, Mizzy... I'm town... MC thought so, even 72 thought so for a while (and he scumread everyone for the most part). I hope I've done enough to convince you, too. I'm trying my best to solve the game. As for the last part that's bothering you, I don't know what to say... I don't see any good reason in being an ass to Egix and only see interacting with him as a positive. Besides Wisconsin nice, remember.

I don't really see how reacting to an E-1 with enthusiasm and unvoting once offsuit claimed are good examples of obvtown-ness (bolded 2) but yeah, the (bolded 1) is probably the strongest thing in your favour.

Egix96 · Post Post #1757 (ISO) » Mon Dec 07, 2020 9:34 pm

In post 1706, MURDERCAT wrote:Here's what I think are the most telling interactions:
- hunter push on chess moves (28, 48, 88, 119)
- spangled slot missing from (689)
- ff does an egix meta dive (1038)
- cylstar early push on chess moves (50, 104)
- Egix never pushing chess moves/ff throughout the game
- safebet generally towntelling like all game (1305, 1377, 1653)
- catch up post from spangled is maybe kind IIOA? And maybe the 72 vote is too convenient? (600, 611)
- Hesitance to vote ff from spangled? (875)
- Spangled reaction to 72 and ff claim (1517, 1532, 1544)

Sry he didn't actually say "obv" (I misremembered) but yeah

Mizzytastic · Post Post #1758 (ISO) » Tue Dec 08, 2020 1:47 pm

In post 921, safebet222 wrote:
In post 919, 72offsuit wrote:VOTE: fferyllt
Is this indicative of anything you gleaned overnight?

Why did you ask this?

safebet222 · Post Post #1759 (ISO) » Tue Dec 08, 2020 2:08 pm

In post 931, safebet222 wrote:
In post 930, Mizzytastic wrote: I'm not certain it's right, that's why I want a discussion. It has the potential to produce a lot of clears, but I dunno whether the average case is good enough. Either way I'm not sure asking if a vote is based on night stuff is the right take.
All I meant was if he had reread the D1 & D2 activity and came up with something different than what he was saying at the end of D2... I wasn't trying to refer to the NK at all.

I wanted to know if 72 had reread the game overnight and found something that cemented his read or if that was a continuation vote.

safebet222 · Post Post #1760 (ISO) » Tue Dec 08, 2020 3:01 pm

I suppose you'd want to know why it mattered... I was having a hard time with 72 the entire game... I thought that the amount of effort he put into his reads during the night phase could be AI.

Mizzytastic · Post Post #1761 (ISO) » Tue Dec 08, 2020 3:11 pm

So when ff responded to that by saying she knew it wasn't you didn't find it odd?

safebet222 · Post Post #1762 (ISO) » Tue Dec 08, 2020 3:23 pm

In post 1761, Mizzytastic wrote:So when ff responded to that by saying she knew it wasn't you didn't find it odd?

You and FF completely misunderstood my question... In fact, you pretty much shut me down. I tried to clarify but the game went off in another direction.

If I was supposed to read something into that statement, I obviously missed it trying to be understood.

Egix96 · Post Post #1763 (ISO) » Wed Dec 09, 2020 8:33 am

Any objections to me voting soon? The deadline's not far off now.

Mizzytastic · Post Post #1764 (ISO) » Wed Dec 09, 2020 11:08 am

I'm kinda surprised Safebet hasn't already for the level of certainty he seems to portray. I wasn't expecting anything to ask. If you still going to vote me then I'm happy to cross vote now and hope my read is just wrong

Mizzytastic · Post Post #1765 (ISO) » Wed Dec 09, 2020 11:23 am

Ebwop: anyone

safebet222 · Post Post #1766 (ISO) » Wed Dec 09, 2020 2:38 pm

In post 1764, Mizzytastic wrote:I'm kinda surprised Safebet hasn't already for the level of certainty he seems to portray. I wasn't expecting anything to ask. If you still going to vote me then I'm happy to cross vote now and hope my read is just wrong

I might have if I didn't think you've been coaxing me to vote before Egix voted. I'd prefer that Egix votes first.

Mizzytastic · Post Post #1767 (ISO) » Wed Dec 09, 2020 3:23 pm

This whole day phase has felt to me like you don't care between me or Egix getting voted, while until maybe the last 24 hours seemingly convinced I'm town. That's what's been bugging me. I can't make a good case, I'm on zero spoons and a lot of it is gut.

Even if I'm right town probably loses with Egix voting me but VOTE: Safebet

safebet222 · Post Post #1768 (ISO) » Wed Dec 09, 2020 3:33 pm

In post 1767, Mizzytastic wrote:This whole day phase has felt to me like you don't care between me or Egix getting voted, while until maybe the last 24 hours seemingly convinced I'm town. That's what's been bugging me. I can't make a good case, I'm on zero spoons and a lot of it is gut.

Even if I'm right town probably loses with Egix voting me but VOTE: Safebet

Mizzy... This isn't going to end well like this... I've made my case why I'm town. I asked you to let egix vote first. You act like noone has the same insecurities that you do and that I just don't hide them. Please take your vote off of me.

safebet222 · Post Post #1769 (ISO) » Wed Dec 09, 2020 3:56 pm

Mizzy... Take a look at today from a town!me perspective and ask yourself why its been hard for me to put my vote down...Don't assume that I'm 100% confident in my read.

safebet222 · Post Post #1770 (ISO) » Wed Dec 09, 2020 6:14 pm

Not that it matters anymore cause Egix will wake up before Mizzy and if he's scum, as I suspect, the game is over.

Mizzy put me in a really hard spot to vote egix... After Egix opened stating he is leaning Mizzy... I basically claimed my intention to vote Egix in post 1730. Mizzy follows with...

In post 1732, Mizzytastic wrote:Right, computer is working though I'm still sorting stuff out so I'll be in and out. First thoughts

Day 5 Strategy - scum!Egix would be bold trying to get Safebet to flip on me - he has a hard time winning if we end up crossvoting,
scum!Safebet would be going for the easier option trying to get me to go on Egix after CAT tried to get me away from my paranoia there

VCA - this leans more badly for Egix IMO. He's been in the 'optimal' scum slot on the wagon the first 3 days. Also D1 both scum preferred muh to AGP, if it's scum!Safebet they were both there d2, aaaand they killed him n2. I wanna go look back and see if he said anything that could have drawn him such ire

I continue claiming I intend to vote egix with post 1739 and post 1741. Mizzy clarified their thought to me in post 1748. I then asked them where they were at and they respond...

In post 1753, Mizzytastic wrote:looking at muh wasn't especially helpful. He's on c4, suspicious of egix d1, you end of d2 but mostly just ... very omgusy. I could believe that he died for his reads in the world where either of you are scum. It leads egix just because it's d1.

I'm pretty sure ff's play around 72 was to do with trying to get him to a final situation where he is likely to get votes. I dunno if Egix votes there d2 if that strategy is going?

I also feel like c4 was trying to line up Egix d2, but it's hard to tell if it was distancing or lining up an elim cos he didn't say much then replaced out, and ff's approach to Egix was clearly different. I tend towards the later just because I was the other person c4 pushed for the interactions with cyl and it felt like the d2 shift was to the easier target.

I feel like the ff metadive on Egix was based on the assumption he's likely to get to a final situation and it creates a whole bunch of WIFOM. But that plays either way, and I feel like it's a pretty safe bet for d3 ff to guess she dies before either of you two. I don't remember any significant interactions between you two other than you both ending up on muh.

I do remember feeling odd about how you encouraged me to vote muh - responding to something I said mid d1 mid d2 and maybe also playing on my paranoia about 72 pocketing me - but I need to go check that second bit, I feel like JDye said it first and you second but I'd have to go check. If I'm right on ff's strategy on 72 it could be a sign of partnership cos 72 probably just dies d2 if you are voting there (and he's not a pr, but scum clearly didn't think he was at the time)

If I vote you and I'm wrong I feel stupid cos between the two of you you look more town at face value. If I vote Egix and i'm wrong I kick myself cos my gut has been saying it's you since the ff flip and I've not had the spoons to make that case.

I want to vote you over Egix, but I'm struggling to vote either of you over my anxiety of being wrong.

If Egix is claims he is leaning Mizzy and Mizzy states that they scumread me for pushing egix, they basically don't give town!me and town!Mizzy any room to coexist. I have to first convince town!Mizzy that I am town before placing my vote on Egix or risk pissing them off and having their vote on me anyhow giving scum!Egix the win.

To top it off, Mizzy starts scum reading me for not voting and for supposedly acting like I don't care who gets voted, and that I am acting like I'm sure about my read but am not voting. But in reality, I'm not voting because Mizzy put me in a spot where I don't want to vote Egix because I think that its the thing that will make them scumread me more, handing scum!egix the win.

But I managed to land us here anyway... so what do I know?

So, Mizzy, I'm sorry if you're town and you don't wake up before Egix... I tried my best to convince you without berating you about the tough spot you put me in to vote my reiterated claimed intention. I felt forced to try to convince you I am town before placing my egix vote. I also felt forced to reconsider the possibility you are scum and interact with egix a bit.

I'm not sure what to do here... I'm feeling kind of defeated.

safebet222 · Post Post #1771 (ISO) » Wed Dec 09, 2020 6:25 pm

I'm sorry I didn't know how to express the above in coherent sentences before now. Not sure that the above is coherent...

Egix96 · Post Post #1772 (ISO) » Wed Dec 09, 2020 7:41 pm

VOTE: safebet222

Egix96 · Post Post #1773 (ISO) » Wed Dec 09, 2020 7:57 pm

Who's here?
Mizzy I wanna apologise for tricking you

Mizzytastic · Post Post #1774 (ISO) » Wed Dec 09, 2020 10:15 pm

Heh, I've been out of this game since half way through d1 really. I would have replaced but I wanted to prove to myself I could get through a game and there were so many replacements I felt like being another one was just unreasonable.

Though if you are town and trick is pretending you aren't when you think we've won apology accepted

@Safebet - I him if you led earlier with just not being that confident this might've gone differently. I wasn't super worried about Egix voting me, either you are scum and I know I don't have the mental energy to case it or you are town and he probably loses once I know that. But it sounds like you are staying to turn on me there while not having disagreed strongly with my portrayal of your read which I read as "I just can't get him to townread me, I'll have to go the other way"

Then again I've been shit all game and was running on 3 hours sleep so *shrug*