Newbie 2077 : The Curse of a Blue Diamond!! - Gameover

[LicketyQuickety]

The reasons for TRing Uranus are bad and you should feel bad.

Both Norweigh and CLS are defending Uranus for IDK what reason. CLS isn't even addressing my case on them. My point was NOT that Uranus was rolefishing (after looking at the data) but that they were trying to get a Reg wagon going based on Sheeping me. Sheeping me is something Scum like to do. I will forgive Reg for this since they are a new player IIRC, but Uranus should know that my case on Reg wasn't that deep. I felt like they were pushing anywhere they could to get a different Elim through besides them.

Also, as an aside, when I saw CLS say Uranus was hammered, I went back to bed because I thought it was settled. When I got back to the thread I saw that Uranus wasn't actually hammered and I was quite annoyed by that.

[LicketyQuickety]

we're gonna no lim again aren't we

God I hope not.

[LicketyQuickety]

if uranus is a fakeclaiming champion, then he should go and say that. what's the problem with this again? if he isn't good at fakeclaiming, chances are he won't do it as scum.

Which is exactly what Uranus said. They said they normally don't fakeclaim as Scum. Why are you covering for Uranus so strongly here?

[LicketyQuickety]

I look into the skies and i see~
Flying there, Astronomy~

Oh so far and yet so close~
Giving me an wink, adios~

We have a poet in our game. Well written lines. A little sad but true.

Speaking of 'sad but true': that poem reminded me of another Metallica song:

(I know the original is by Blue Öyster Cult, but this is the version I first heard and still prefer; If I guess most players age right, most of you would think even Metallica is old folks music. So BÖC might be way off your radar)

Sorta feeling like the vibe of this game is more this:



I say that because Town really can't get their act together this game.

[LicketyQuickety]

I cannot see this cows/kenny exchange as being TvT. I'm still leaning toward kenny being the scum here, because while I don't disagree that Some of what cows has said is anti-Town, I feel like kenny's going out of his way to see it in the worst way possible.

I can understand what you are saying here, but the thing I see is that I see CLS trying to do a lot of things that make them look good without actually providing a meaningful (or conclusive, if you will) conclusion to all the things CLS is supposedly doing to solve the game. These big analysis posts CLS does seems more like trying to look good rather than actually helping CLS solve the game.

[LicketyQuickety]

I think Town's biggest downfall this game has been zero consensus on anything. While when everyone agrees on SRs generally means Town is on the wrong track, Town can't solve the game if there is zero consensus on SRs at all. But when everyone agrees that means Scum are perfectly happy to maintain the consensus. So Town is having the opposite problem as that this game.

[LicketyQuickety]

I feel like if anyone is going to kill Reg for the lols it's CLS.

[LicketyQuickety]

townblock uranus-lq and i want to add myself and kenny in there. discuss

Ew, no. Why is Uranus in there?

[LicketyQuickety]

Voting Uranus for this:

I don't think you ever clarified what was "newbscum" about them.

they were very opportunistic and quick to vote me without carefully looking at the facts by lq

What facts was I supposed to look at?

what lq had posted before you voted

VOTE: Uranus

[LicketyQuickety]

why does scum!uranus kill regrider

Well, why not? I think the kill points to Reg's PoE. I think their PoE was correct, so I want to Elim withing that. Uranus wasn't in Reg's TRs and Reg was strongly pushing Uranus. OTOH, if it IS CLS/Uranus like I am thinking, IDK why I wasn't the kill. Ultimately, the NK is mostly WIFOM, but I still think Reg was probably killed for having reads just off the norm (at the time) and so it's probably accurate.

[LicketyQuickety]

@RR,

Between CLS and Kenny, I feel kenny's content has been a lot better in terms of actually providing meaningful information that leads to a solve. I don't feel the same way about CLS. There's just too much WIFOM in CLS and all their takes. I also brought up another reason to SR CLS in 543.

[LicketyQuickety]

I don't really like Cows lately,

I haven't liked CLS all game long. Was there some earlier content by them that you did like?

[LicketyQuickety]

Spoiler:

I pride myself on never actually watching this in entirely.

[LicketyQuickety]

I think if Uranus is Town, then CLS is probably Town as well. I see the point that CLS is making in saying Uranus can't be teamed with anyone, but uh... Scum bus.

[LicketyQuickety]

I don't really like Cows lately,

I haven't liked CLS all game long. Was there some earlier content by them that you did like?

Not that i remember.
Do you think Uranus has partner equity with Cow or that Uranus is more scummy?

I mean, I can kinda see CLS as super Townie at time and other times they're a huge "WTF?"

[LicketyQuickety]

I can understand what you are saying here, but the thing I see is that I see CLS trying to do a lot of things that make them look good without actually providing a meaningful (or conclusive, if you will) conclusion to all the things CLS is supposedly doing to solve the game. These big analysis posts CLS does seems more like trying to look good rather than actually helping CLS solve the game.

these jabs at my playstyle are personal to me

are not*

i will acknowledge when something doesn't work but obviously neither of us know that yet

I mean, you should not take these things as personal since it has nothing to do with you as a person but instead has to do with the way you are playing the game.

[LicketyQuickety]

Okay, so here's my PoE list:

Town:
RR - They seem to have some different takes in the game and I'm reading that as Townie
StD - upon Uranus and Norweigh being Town, then StD looks a lot worse. Else, they haven't really been Scummy at all. They ask probing questions once in a while. The only thing I don't like is that they seem fine in whoever we flip between a large range of players. That said, their PoE and mine largely coincide.
Kenny - Not sure why RR thinks Kenny is so Scummy. Not seeing it myself. Might be Game Meta differences.
CLS - Town unless Uranus is Scum

PoE:
Norweigh - Norweighs last question to me in 1129 seems like question begging
Astronomy - Honestly not a lot here to digest. They've been weird all game. I just can't make heads or tails of them.
Uranus - They are currently not concerned with solving the game. They are just existing atp.

[LicketyQuickety]

@

MOD

, I will be V/LA from the 9th to the 12th

[LicketyQuickety]

my poe is exactly the same

What is your PoE then? I thought we were mostly seeing a similar PoE. Maybe not exact, but pretty close?

[LicketyQuickety]

it's the same people

Oh, same, not different. Now sure why you commented that then...

Okay, this is getting awkward.

[LicketyQuickety]

Spoiler: vote counts of E-1 wagons

Vote Count 1-5

Save The Dragons

:

floo

: , kennyk

Entellian

:

kennyk

: floo, Salsabil Faria,, Uranus

Uranus

: LicketyQuickety,

cowsloveSushirolls

:Entellian

Salsabil Faria

: Save The Dragons,

Radical Rat

:

LicketyQuickety

: cowsloveSushirolls, Radical Rat

Not Voting

(9):

With 9 alive, it takes 5 to eliminate.

Deadline: August 25th, 2021

Countdown: (expired on 2021-08-23 20:00:00)

Mod Notes:

LicketyQuickety replaces Catboi
Salsabil Faria is on V/LA till 19th August 2021
-

height of wagon: floo, salsa, radical, uranus (chronological order)

Vote Count 1-8

Save The Dragons

:

RegRider

: ,

astronomyfortwo

:

kennyk

: , Radical Rat

Uranus

: LicketyQuickety, cowsloveSushirolls, RegRider, Save The Dragons [E-1]

cowsloveSushirolls

:,

Salsabil Faria

: ,, Uranus, astronomyfortwo

Radical Rat

:

LicketyQuickety

: Salsabil Faria

Not Voting

(9): , kennyk

With 9 alive, it takes 5 to eliminate.

Deadline: August 27th, 2021

Countdown: (expired on 2021-08-27 20:00:00)

Mod Notes:

-

Vote Count 1-10

Save The Dragons

:

RegRider

: Uranus

astronomyfortwo

:NorwegianboyEE, , LicketyQuickety

kennyk

: ,

Uranus

: RegRider, cowsloveSushirolls, Radical Rat, Save The Dragons (E-1)

cowsloveSushirolls

: kennyk,

NorwegianboyEE

: , astronomyfortwo, ,

Radical Rat

:

LicketyQuickety

: ,

Not Voting

(9): , ,

With 9 alive, it takes 5 to eliminate.

Deadline: August 29th, 2021

Countdown: (expired on 2021-08-29 06:32:00)

Mod Notes:

kennyK is on V/LA until Tuesday
-

without all of the extra context:

kenny's E-1 included floo, salsabil, radical and uranus

uranus's E-1 included LQ, me, regrider/floo, StD

salsa's E-1 included uranus, astronomyfortwo, STD, LQ (

not included in spoilers

)

uranus's second E-1 included regrider, me, radical rat, and STD

italicalized wagons are listed on spoilers

EBWOP

EBWOP
i'll do something with this later but for the most part, STD is right

A few things...

From an objective standpoint, StD can be teamed with Kenny (which is where RR is pushing).
CLS can be teamed with Norweigh. I still don't understand why CLS was on Uranus.
RR can be teamed with Uranus or Norweigh. RR likely not teamed with Kenny.
Astronomy likely not teamed with Norweigh.

IDK you can probably get more out of this than that, but this is where my brain limits.

[LicketyQuickety]

kenny's E-1 included floo, salsabil, radical and uranus

uranus's E-1 included LQ, me, regrider/floo, StD

salsa's E-1 included uranus, astronomyfortwo, STD, LQ (

not included in spoilers

)

uranus's second E-1 included regrider, me, radical rat, and STD

italicalized wagons are listed on spoilers

EBWOP

EBWOP
i'll do something with this later but for the most part, STD is right

A few things...

From an objective standpoint, StD can be teamed with Kenny (which is where RR is pushing).
CLS can be teamed with Norweigh. I still don't understand why CLS was on Uranus.
RR can be teamed with Uranus or Norweigh. RR likely not teamed with Kenny.
Astronomy likely not teamed with Norweigh.

IDK you can probably get more out of this than that, but this is where my brain limits.

And Uranus likely not teamed with Kenny or Norwee.

[LicketyQuickety]

Quick reads list. This isn't a solid read list, but this is generally how I feel about who is town and who is not.

RegRider
-----
Kennyk
Salsa
StD
LQ
Null

I am open to any Elim thats not these people.

I want to try and work off this list. I think this PoE is largely correct and I think that is why Reg ate a bullet.

So who's in the PoE from this?

Astronomy
Uranus
CLS
Norwee
RR

Out of these, I feel like RR is probably the Towniest among them, so I'm willing to take them off the list.

That leaves:

Astronomy
Uranus
CLS
Norwee

And that's more or less where I am too, except I still think Uranus has Scum equity with CLS and otherwise I'd say CLS is probably Town. So basically the same list with one caveat.

[LicketyQuickety]

Quick reads list. This isn't a solid read list, but this is generally how I feel about who is town and who is not.

RegRider
-----
Kennyk
StD
LQ
Null

I am open to any Elim thats not these people.

I want to try and work off this list. I think this PoE is largely correct and I think that is why Reg ate a bullet.

So who's in the PoE from this?

Astronomy
Uranus
CLS
RR

Out of these, I feel like RR is probably the Towniest among them, so I'm willing to take them off the list.

That leaves:

Astronomy
Uranus
CLS

And that's more or less where I am too, except I still think Uranus has Scum equity with CLS and otherwise I'd say CLS is probably Town. So basically the same list with one caveat.

Reg had Norwee as Town.

EBWOP.

I'd hate to say it's as "easy" as Uranus and CLS, but it does look like that's the case as far as I can see. Astronomy is just Null really.

[LicketyQuickety]

Okay, I might be shifting gears here preemptively, but uh...

Norwee, what is your read on RR and why?

[LicketyQuickety]

After ISOing Norwee, I think they are probably Town here.

[LicketyQuickety]

I'm gunna do some work on this game. Expect me to have some results sometime tomorrow.

[LicketyQuickety]

content still coming by the time I got to sleep. Got up super late because of a neighbor waking me up. Then I went to my parents house and hung out with some friends. Back now. Will get to working ASAP. Left off at p24 last night. Will go through the rest of the thread tonight and give my analysis.

[LicketyQuickety]

Done collecting data.

What I can say right off the bat is that Norwee and CLS have some associations and not just a couple. That's my best bet for a team at this point. I will say, however, that this type of association read is a bit experimental on my end and I don't have a lot of experience using it. Usually I just look at non-associatives and narrow down the team that way. But recently in a game a pattern hit me as I was doing my non-associatives for that game and I realized there could be potential for some associative reads as well. Hence, the read is based somewhat on the same format as non-associatives but the content/context is different. Basically, I used to just look at posts and see who ISN'T teamed with who. But after doing that for quite a few games I realized a pattern that is conductive to association reads and it made sense. So this is my first game trying it out.

Will analyze the data and give results, but that's what most stuck out to me.

[LicketyQuickety]

Here's a list of how impactful each player has been according to postcount.

Kenny

StD
Norwee

astonomy
CLS

Uranus
RR

There is a correlation between high impact and Town and low impact and Scum, but it's not a coefficient.

[LicketyQuickety]

Here's a list of how impactful each player has been according to postcount.

Kenny

StD, Norwee

astonomy, CLS

Uranus, RR

There is a correlation between high impact and Town and low impact and Scum, but it's not a coefficient.

I don't understand your ranking here. You say according to postcount, which isn't really a great metric for judging impact in the first place, and yet kenny has not posted the most, nor have I posted the least.

Miscalculation on my part.

It's actually ranked by percentage of impact per # of post. So Kenny has the highest. But more accurately, it is percentage of (non-)associatives compared to post count.

This should be the more accurate list.

Kenny

RR, StD, Norwee

astonomy, Uranus

CLS

I'll have one more post for this data which is very limited because the game is still in early stages, but it should give some idea of teamed/non-teamed between people. Some players just don't have much data yet.

[LicketyQuickety]

Positive numbers mean that this is the percentage that players are non-associated. These are Green. Negative numbers mean that this is the percentage that the players are associated. These numbers are Red. Any names left off means there is no data for these players.

StD:

Norwee 45.67%

,

RR 40%

Kenny:

CLS 75%

,

Norwee 58.33%

,

RR 60%

Uranus:

CLS -12.5%

,

Norwee 8.33%

CLS:

Uranus -100%

,

Norwee -87.5%

,

RR 20%

Norwee:

StD 50%

,

Kenny 21.88%

,

CLS -75%

,

RR 20%

RR:

StD 50%

,

Kenny 18.75%

,

CLS 12.5%

,

Norwee 8.33%

[LicketyQuickety]

As you can see, Astronomy has no data in either direction. This is based on my numbers which may not reflect reality, but I am very conservative with my non-associatives, but I will admit my associative reads are more experimental.

[LicketyQuickety]

So, if I'm reading this correctly, you're asserting a 100% chance that if cows is scum, Uranus is too?

It's based on limited data. It's the other way around, actually. If Uranus is Scum, then CLS has a 100% chance of being Scum. This is just based on the data I have.

[LicketyQuickety]

So... my decision on who to vote based on this data (which is very limited since this game is kinda slow) is very obvious.

VOTE: CLS

[LicketyQuickety]

So, if I'm reading this correctly, you're asserting a 100% chance that if cows is scum, Uranus is too?

It's based on limited data. It's the other way around, actually. If Uranus is Scum, then CLS has a 100% chance of being Scum. This is just based on the data I have.

In other words, if RR is Scum, then by my data, they can only be teamed with astronomy, since there is no data for these two players and RR has non-associatives between all the other players. So a non-associative basically says what the chance is that if the person is Scum, how much of a chance the other person is NOT Scum.

So non-associatives can be helpful if we Elim Scum since it can Clear, Soft-Clear, or Light-Clear other players from being Scum. In this way, RR would be the most informative Elim if they are Scum because it narrows the crowd considerably because of all the non-associatives that RR has with other players. OTOH, it's also an indication that RR is Town because they have so many non-associatives.

Astronomy, in this was is the least informative Elim since they have no associatives or non-assocaitives with any of the players.

[LicketyQuickety]

Here's a list of the number or raw net non-associatives. Technically speaking, someone can be negative in non-associatives if the have more assocaitives than non-associatives, but this would be rare ime, but associations are experimental so we could very well end up with that happening this game (depending on deaths). At this point the bottom three have a net non-associative number of 0. Astonomy because they have no non-associatives or associatives with any players but the other two have just as many associatives as non-associatives.

Kenny

Norwee, RR, StD

astronomy, Uranus, CLS

[LicketyQuickety]

Alright, I think I do sort of understand now. Following your data, the most informative elimination would be whoever contributes the most percentage points across the board, in either direction, while the scummiest would be whoever receives the most negative, particularly if it's a large amount from one player, and CLS meets both of those.

Is this correct?

More or less, yeah.

[LicketyQuickety]

How do you calculate these percentages? Are you an bot?!

Beep... Boop... Me no understando...

[LicketyQuickety]

As a general rule, if a player has an impact level of 65% or more then that would be enough for a clear, 40% for a Soft-Clear, and 20% or less as a Light-Clear.

[LicketyQuickety]

Okay then. I'm willing to go ahead and sheep on that.

VOTE: cowsloveSushirolls

I believe this is E-1

It would be better if you just voted you SRs, honestly. It will be better for me, because my data will be more accurate that way, and it will be better for you because you are voting your main suspect. Wait till late game to sheep me on this (or if I die, then you will know I am more or less on the right track).

[LicketyQuickety]

How do you calculate these percentages? Are you an bot?!

He DID recently change to a Matrix avatar...

Read Sig for details.

[LicketyQuickety]

As a general rule, if a player has an impact level of 65% or more then that would be enough for a clear, 40% for a Soft-Clear, and 20% or less as a Light-Clear.

Not impact, non-associatives.

For impact, a good number is usually between 7%+. Only Kenny has that at this point this game.

[LicketyQuickety]

Okay then. I'm willing to go ahead and sheep on that.

VOTE: cowsloveSushirolls

I believe this is E-1

It would be better if you just voted you SRs, honestly. It will be better for me, because my data will be more accurate that way, and it will be better for you because you are voting your main suspect. Wait till late game to sheep me on this (or if I die, then you will know I am more or less on the right track).

I don't disagree with you on this, but cows was on my list of potential eliminations anyway, and I don't think I'm going to be any more successful convincing people on kenny than I was yesterday, especially now that I'm even doubting myself there.

I wouldn't be sheeping if it were anyone not already on my own list.

Ah. Carry on then...

[LicketyQuickety]

hi im VT

i can finish up that ISO and you can send me off but i'm not exactly feeling that town knows exactly what to do after i get limmed

Well, I'm willing to bet that at least one person claiming VT is actually Scum. Else, Town is in a world of hurt.

I sorta feel like you claiming here is a bit Townie. The problem is where to got after that. We could always Elim astronomy - they have a good chance of being Scum IMO. But that doesn't give us much info. I usually try and strike a balance between info and Scum Elim. But here you are, claiming VT...

[LicketyQuickety]

and as much as i'd like to slobber over something like a uranus/astro scumteam since i've talked a bit about radical and norwee both having town equity it's not really something i'm comfortable with tossing around yet

What about Norwee?

[LicketyQuickety]

and as much as i'd like to slobber over something like a uranus/astro scumteam since i've talked a bit about radical and norwee both having town equity it's not really something i'm comfortable with tossing around yet

What about Norwee?

ultimately it's about how i interpreted 1142 - 1151 and also what i thought abt salsa in 978

I sorta feel like you were throwing slog at Salsa/Norwee, but have you ever actually voted for them? Quote the post so I can see it.

[LicketyQuickety]

OTOH, Kenny could be Scum with Uranus due to Kenny not having any non-associatives there. Or with StD. I think everyone else is accounted for with Kenny. Kenny is heavy on non-associatives with Norwee and CLS. Usually when something is very one sided it indicates TvS. Well, Kenny has that with two different players. Curious isn't it? You would think Kenny would have more with RR, but that's not what the data says.

[LicketyQuickety]

only at the beginning of D2

1051

Show me what the next vote post was for you.

[LicketyQuickety]

i couldn't imagine forgetting about a mafia game for this long

UNVOTE: NorwegianboyEE
finishing the ISO i started on D1 and drawing more conclusions from that

Yeah, I think I am fine with Eliming CLS here because this is an Unvote and not a vote on someone else (more Scummy).

[LicketyQuickety]

CLS, your silence is deafening.

[LicketyQuickety]

CLS, your silence is deafening.

considering turning on invisible mode so that i don't have to bear with people saying undoubtedly cringe things like this

you're in a wicked state of confbias so i think it's best that i stick with doing my own thing for the next couple of hours

How many of the articles have you read on the Wiki? Don't want to get Elimmed? Make someone else look more Scummy than you. Easy solution if you are Town. Not so easy if you are Scum.

[LicketyQuickety]

How many of the articles have you read on the Wiki? Don't want to get Elimmed? Make someone else look more Scummy than you. Easy solution if you are Town. Not so easy if you are Scum.

i'm not fighting an elimination if it objectively helps town according to your data. you suggesting this is probably the worst thing i've seen all game

my stances are crystal clear

I've said my data is limited like 10 times by now. It's not perfect data. Please, don't just give up if you are Town here. If you are not Scum then your Elim doesn't actually tell us that much. Your Elim tells us a ton if you are Scum, but if you are not, then it's not a very good Elim.

If I was you I would push someone else. There's literally zero reason not to give your best effort here.

[LicketyQuickety]

I can't tell if CLS is defeated Town or defeated Scum at this point. Usually I can tell, but I can't here. I need more from CLS to really inform my read based on play here.

[LicketyQuickety]

I can't tell if CLS is defeated Town or defeated Scum at this point. Usually I can tell, but I can't here. I need more from CLS to really inform my read based on play here.

i get that this is probably some train of thought post, but why say this out loud when i'm pretty much oblivious to why you're asking me certain things here? it seems counter-productive since now that i've seen it i know that you're looking at my posts more critically than normal

Hey that reminds me of me, constantly posting whatever i'm thinking and then realizing 5 minutes later that i said something really dumb but i'm too impulsive to stop.

Oh, I know this all too well!

Like, usually my gut reads at the beginning of the game a pretty good, but then I get distracted by all the shiny things that have happened since and lose the read because of information overload.

[LicketyQuickety]

Here it is, in a picture this time.

Spoiler:

[LicketyQuickety]

If I was you I would push someone else. There's literally zero reason not to give your best effort here.

i'm not giving up, in fact that's exactly what i want to do when i say "stick with doing my own thing for the next couple of hours"
but one thing that i'm not going to try to do is attempt to deflect onto someone else today. i have a strong gut feeling that despite whoever flips and whatever color they are the thread's discontent with me will end up losing us the game

also, bad town, no dessert tonight. 5 different people expressing a distaste in my play, and only one person has decided to vote me for it? evil, disgusting, unsavory, and most importantly, zzzzzzzzzzz

i've been alluding to this for days and trying to encourage it in order to generate more discussion. i don't think i'm at the skill level to singlehandedly turn the game around and persuade people to not vote me

I guess all I can say is that if you flip Town, I'll take a good look at what you had to say in the game. I know it's not very common, but I personally like to read dead Townies because we know they are Town so we know their info is coming from a good place.

[LicketyQuickety]

Concerned about a certain area on the map.

Spoiler:

[LicketyQuickety]

I'd really like to know what Astronomy is thinking atp.

Please be an open book and tell us what you are thinking.

[LicketyQuickety]

Alright, I don't do this very often, but I think based on tone, CLS is Town.

UNVOTE:

[LicketyQuickety]

And I ask myself "What else could he have claimed?". Answer: nothing, as I pointed out here: 1090

i mean there was this cop soft i did for the funny a long time ago

Cope

Even I didn't take that as a claim back than. But it would be very gutsy to claim cop now.

I saw it as a possible crumb actaully. I just didn't get it though because of when it happened in the game.

[LicketyQuickety]

i like the post and scum probably isn't inclined to post optimal PR play at a time when they just killed a friendly neighbor, if that makes sense

Do you mean because Scum is in a good spot they will get sloppy or something like that?

[LicketyQuickety]

I feel like my gut doesn't like StD very much. IDK if I am just TRing them because I like them or something like that. I will try and clear my biases on StD and see what happens.

[LicketyQuickety]

Okay, I ISO'd StD. I think overall they look pretty good. Some concerning things are that they haven't reevaluated much this game and that's a bit concerning. But, IDK, maybe StD is just good at Mafia and we should all be sheeping them.

[LicketyQuickety]

Okay, at this point I have TRs on these players (based on play):

StD
CLSR
RR
Norwee
Kenny

That leaves a PoE of exactly:

Uranus
Astro

That can't be right. It's too easy. There's probably a Scum in one of my TRs. Ugh, why can't Mafia be easy?

[LicketyQuickety]

and as much as i'd like to slobber over something like a uranus/astro scumteam since i've talked a bit about radical and norwee both having town equity it's not really something i'm comfortable with tossing around yet

mind of the meld variety

Indeed.

[LicketyQuickety]

Your 802 is helpful as I crash-land into this game. I think it's a fair chance scum is an early vote on either wagon, maybe both. But if not both, I'd say it's more likely scum is on the 2nd wagon than the first (time becomes a factor and scum wants a miselim).

This really only matters if Scum were in danger of getting Eliminated D1. If they were, who would their partners be?

[LicketyQuickety]

Not sure I agree LQ. Miselims are in scum's best interest whether the scum team is feeling heat or not. My personal feeling (could be wrong of course) is that scum would rather be an early vote on a wagon than a late one, as the hammer and e-1 votes tend to get a little more scrutiny.

I'm not ready to partner-solve yet, just trying to get a foothold into the game.

The thing is, if Scum is not in danger of getting Elimmed, then they can wait back and weigh their options. You can't tell me you've never been in a situation as Scum where Town was super off track and you thought it would be best to make a strong push, right? Like, only a super try hard Deep Wolf would make that play. I guess that is what you are arguing for then?

Like, isn't you going after me basically the same thing you are accusing me of rn? You are going after a players who pretty much everyone TRs because they made a strong push. I just don't know why you think that is more often Rand<Scum. Town has just as much incentive to do it as Scum if not more incentive than to do it as Scum. So we are back to square one. You think it's more likely that Scum make a super strong push than it is for Town to. To me, that doesn't make any sense.

[LicketyQuickety]

Not sure I agree LQ. Miselims are in scum's best interest whether the scum team is feeling heat or not. My personal feeling (could be wrong of course) is that scum would rather be an early vote on a wagon than a late one, as the hammer and e-1 votes tend to get a little more scrutiny.

I'm not ready to partner-solve yet, just trying to get a foothold into the game.

The thing is, if Scum is not in danger of getting Elimmed, then they can wait back and weigh their options. You can't tell me you've never been in a situation as Scum where Town was super off track and you thought it would be best to make a strong push, right? Like, only a super try hard Deep Wolf would make that play. I guess that is what you are arguing for then?

Like, isn't you going after me basically the same thing you are accusing me of rn? You are going after a players who pretty much everyone TRs because they made a strong push. I just don't know why you think that is more often Rand<Scum. Town has just as much incentive to do it as Scum if not more incentive than to do it as Scum. So we are back to square one. You think it's more likely that Scum make a super strong push than it is for Town to. To me, that doesn't make any sense.

I'm "going for you" in the weakest of ways at this point. (I've been in game for all of maybe 5 hours now? Hi, btw!) Just making some observations. To me, I look at the wagons CLS details in 802 and 816 and I say scum is more likely to be on those wagons early than late. Given there is very little overlap between the first two wagons, scum is in there somewhere. You think scum is more likely to get on the wagon late?

Yes.

But more to the point, your argument boils down to Scum being more pro-active than Town. That's completely backwards.

[LicketyQuickety]

Interesting, and I'll accept that for newbscum, but I think it's a mistake to assume scum not being proactive.

I'll ask you point blank. In general, are Scum more concerned about being pro-active or are Town? We can even compare the same player given they play as Scum one game and Town another game.

[LicketyQuickety]

You might be right *in general* but I've seen plenty of proactive scum.

I'll even amend my statement:

If I were scum, I would rather be an early vote on a wagon than the e-1 or hammer vote.

Of course. Who wouldn't want to be early on the wagon as Scum. It makes you look better. But often times Scum have to try and figure out which direction Town is going to go and adjust accordingly.

I personally try and mimic my Town game as Scum. So I make pushes. But I don't make pushes without having information first. I will push a wagon I think has a chanced to flip, but that doesn't look like I'm trying to Elim LHF.

Of course usually as Scum I get Elimmed, often early. I get elimmed early as Scum because my play is uncharacteristic of my Town game in some sense.

I just don't really get why you are pushing the angle that there is a better chance of the people early on the wagons being Scum vs Town without something else to back it up. It's just an empty accusation that should ultimately end in a null read since Town have just as much reason to do it as Scum.

So, you are pushing NAI stuff as Scummy, which is Scummy.

[LicketyQuickety]

But I disagree with you that votes, and vote order, is NAI.

That's not my argument, bro.

I jumped on you because I saw your argument was fundamentally flawed. And I've seen Scum "work up" progression before.

[LicketyQuickety]

So, you are pushing NAI stuff as Scummy, which is Scummy

What am I pushing as scummy, then, that is NAI?

Is this a serious question? It's staring you right in the face. You think it's more Scummy than Townie for the early voters on the wagons. That's NAI at best.

[LicketyQuickety]

Am I having a stroke?

I personally think it's Townie that someone was first on the wagon. That's why I think your argument is flawed. I said at best it's NAI, because I think you can make an argument that it is, but I DON'T think it's Scummy to be first on the wagon by itself.

[LicketyQuickety]

What am I pushing as scummy, then, that is NAI?

Is this a serious question? It's staring you right in the face. You think it's more Scummy than Townie for the early voters on the wagons. That's NAI at best.

Am I having a stroke?

Know what, please forgive the tone of that last post. I just don't know what we're arguing about. I absolutely think the order of votes means something. I wouldn't say somebody is scum based on that info alone, but in light of other factors it can be useful.

This reaction is a bit Townie, I think.

I'd still prefer to Elim Uranus.

VOTE: Uranus

They've been slanking hard every since getting put at E-1.

[LicketyQuickety]

LQ I agree with that assessment on Uranus, but do you think he's scum in light of his post-not-really-hammer readslist?

I don't see scum saying a damn thing in that spot, though I could see manufacturing it to look town, maybe (I do not know Uranus's meta at all so not sure how possible that is).

He's not a terrible vote but wouldn't be my first choice at the moment.

There's always the idea that Uranus can do anything and everything to post something so that they don't get Eliminated. I would have to view the context of when Uranus was put at E-1 to really give a better take on that.

[LicketyQuickety]

Looking back, it looks like you are talking about Uranus' 991. IDK, I feel that RL could have been given to throw off Town if Uranus is Scum here. Uranus would have been in anti-spew mode if they were Scum there. Therefore, you would not be able to read into the RL for correct information.

I would say it's lightly Townie given Uranus gave a RL after they

*might*

have been hammered, but it's not enough to change my read there.

[LicketyQuickety]

Actually, given Uranus had the same RL in 991 and 1070 I think it's likely that Uranus is just at a loss on what to do given said said almost exactly that later. I think Uranus was telling the truth that they do care to solve the game, but no one is really following them, so they don't know what to do.

[LicketyQuickety]

I'll vote Norwee if we need an Elim. I am viewing Norwee as Town based on their play, but Salsa was definitely Scum FMPOV.

[LicketyQuickety]

I'll vote Norwee if we need an Elim. I am viewing Norwee as Town based on their play, but Salsa was definitely Scummy FMPOV.

Scummy, not Scum.

EBWOP.

[LicketyQuickety]

UNVOTE: for now

Can I ask why you are treating Pavowski differently than Norwee here? You were Scum reading Asto, but now all the sudden you feel Pav has done enough to change your read on them? That doesn't really line up to me.

[LicketyQuickety]

Well, if Uranus and Norwee are both not Scum, then I'm probably going to be looking at StD a lot closer. I think if both of them are Town, then that makes StD look really bad.

[LicketyQuickety]

I'll

VOTE: Norwee

At this point, but if Norwee flips green I will probably be going after StD.

P-Edit: fair StD.

[LicketyQuickety]

I'll

VOTE: Norwee

At this point, but if Norwee flips green I will probably be going after StD.

P-Edit: fair StD.

I think that is E-1. Wait, it's E-2 because we no Elimmed D1.

We do need to be thinking about who to Elim at this point. I'm fine flipping Norwee.

[LicketyQuickety]

but then again, LQ's data

I have already told someone this, but I'd prefer NOT to sheep my data at this point. Besides, I now know a better formula for when someone has non-associations and associations with a player. Will have to update my info some time.

IIRC, some people are SRing StD. Granted, a huge reason I am TRing StD is because they are playing basically a carbon copy of when last time I played with them. Their reads that game were amazing and they even ate a bullet as bodyguard protecting me. The down side to StD's play is that it's such low content unless you ask them something. And they seem to just keep voting back and forth between a few players which is weird. I'll be heavily reevalling StD upon a Norwee flip.

[LicketyQuickety]

Problem is StD also sounds pretty much exactly like he did in the previous game I played with him, when he was scum and flew under the radar after coming close to getting limmed early.

This pretty much means I don't think he should make it to elo, assuming we make it that far.

Can you link that game?

[LicketyQuickety]

Problem is StD also sounds pretty much exactly like he did in the previous game I played with him, when he was scum and flew under the radar after coming close to getting limmed early.

This pretty much means I don't think he should make it to elo, assuming we make it that far.

Can you link that game?

viewtopic.php?f=11&t=86874

StD posted a lot more higher kind of content in that game. Also, I think he has more posts now in this game than he did in the entire other game.

I guess given this... I can see where you are coming from with Scum making strong pushes and being first on the wagon. However, read this game to get a different aura from StD where he was Town.

[LicketyQuickety]

well this game's over lol

who got jk'd

Perhaps. It could have been a save.

VOTE: CLSR

[LicketyQuickety]

Also, Scum are WAY more likely to claim PR than VT.

Ok it wasn't things but it was something I legitimately don't get where this comes from. In what world would scum claim PR over claiming VT? Just hear me out but if I remember correctly scum claiming PR is a horrible idea except for two scenarios, and that itself is very risky. Fakeclaiming PR in elo requires that Town ends up voting their PR instead of you, and just outright claiming when outside of elo to me literally needs PRs to say nothing about it when they should.

That's why I said if there was an intent to hammer. If Scum claim PR then they either out an actual PR before getting Elimmed or live to fight another day.

[LicketyQuickety]

UNVOTE:

Just because it's your birthday. No, not really, I don't care about birthdays.

But actually because I think it's probably Pav.

[LicketyQuickety]

Or Kenny if Pav is JK.

[LicketyQuickety]

i don't think it's uranus/strangematter due to the offer to hammer

i don't think it's kenny either for the way she went after him

Who do you think it is then?

Pavowski

Why? The main point against Astro was just the lurking, wasn't it?

I still think Pav is Scummy for pushing NAI things as Scummy.

[LicketyQuickety]

I still think Pav is Scummy for pushing NAI things as Scummy.

Eh, I see what you're saying but I think that's just a case of being wrong about AI-ness. The argument you two had read as pretty genuine to me.

Tell me why Kenny is STILL Scum.

[LicketyQuickety]

Salsa doing what in hindsight appears to be weird distancing maneuvers

That's interesting. Why do you think that was distancing as opposed to just trying to get Town Elimmed for bad reasons?

[LicketyQuickety]

Because she backed off as soon as the Kenny wagon actually looked viable. Compared to the Uranus wagon where she spontaneously offered a premature hammer

Apparently, I can't handle this many posts because I don't remember that.

[LicketyQuickety]

Here she is backing off because the wagon was "too easy"

Spoiler:

i'm pretty satisfied with this explanation, thanks

to elaborate on this: i was hoping for an answer that was something along the lines of "your vote doesn't help town", and i got just that, along with a pretty reasonable train of thought behind it

Can you explain more? How do you think

expressing paranoia

over NAI stuff without even getting pressure is coming from town mindset? The more I'm reading them, more I find them scummy but on the same time their wagon isn’t having that much of resistance I'm thinking scum!them would have atp which is giving me 2nd thoughts....

UNVOTE: kenny

Alright, so, here's my problem.

A prod post is, usually, profoundly NAI. If anything, it might just BARELY lean Town, because Mafia benefits from Town lurking, and are thus less likely to bring it up, but it usually isn't that deep.

This particular kind of overthinking though I believe is vastly more likely to come from scum than town. I don't really see a Townie being afraid that trying to prod a lurker would look scummy, and if they did I don't see them making a big show about it, probably, but not necessarily, just PMing it instead.

However, by your own admission, you did it publicly hoping to gain towncred off it, but then got too paranoid about it backfiring that you wound up overexplaining yourself. That's scum logic if ya ask me.

Yes, I agree with you on this but my experience here is holding me back tbh. A wagon which is formatting without strong resistance (specially on Day 1) has much more chance to flip as town rather than scum fmpov + they also are an old player. Even if I think

Entel

is their scum partner, hence no other wagon is formed and no resistance is formatting at the current wagon, as an experienced one, scum!

kenny

could be play the whole thing differently imo.

And here she is offering to hammer Uranus

Spoiler:

I'm here and just see the VC. I'm still recovering, don't have energy for catching up yet. Are we agreeing to eliminate

Uranus

here? If so then I'll hammer right away. If not then I've to catch up which I don’t want to atm...

If you have a point make it.

Totally joking. Good point actually.

[LicketyQuickety]

I'm back from vacation BTW. IDK why it still says I am V/LA. Probably because I put it in till the 13th.

[LicketyQuickety]

If Kenny is Scum, strangely enough, this might be accurate.

Spoiler:

I was ISOing Salsa, and found some posts that pinged me:

Spoiler: Pinged Posts

I think she says kennyk is trying too hard, missing the obvious motive as I pointed out for a scum accusation. It's good that someone is trying to be serious because this is how we move out of RVS, but kennyk is doing this wrong. She may also be accusing kennyk of doing that just to look town. I recall that the term LAMIST is used here for this.

Perfectly explained but I want to add one thing: they said they had an account here before, so they played before here imo. That's why I'm not taking them that much of a newb player and when I read their posts ("

this sus, that sus

"), I found they were trying

too much

which I generally find suspicious.

This looks like either a defense of floo or a buddy attempt.

I think she says kennyk is trying too hard, missing the obvious motive as I pointed out for a scum accusation. It's good that someone is trying to be serious because this is how we move out of RVS, but kennyk is doing this wrong. She may also be accusing kennyk of doing that just to look town. I recall that the term LAMIST is used here for this.

what's the best way to move us outside of RVS, if the way kenny is doing it is "wrong"? is it just because the pushing happened to be on you because he thought your thought process was unclear? what happened in this game seems like just as good of a method as any, which is why i'm asking

I find

LAMIST play

scummy in general basis.
Almost every town games of mine, there was at least one scum

who appeared to be solvy in the early stage of the game

to gain towncred and in my scum games, I also tried to get towncred at RVS stage.

This might be nothing, or it might be made to make CLS look bad while also carrying the same thing of buddy/defence of floo in prior post.

But then I saw a spinet of Kenny's post in 72 in reference to the original post 62.

Why this is interesting is because of what Kenny said here:

@ Uranus: I guess you didn't read the thread properly. After Radical Rats Unvote I am now

'only'

E-2

And given StD and Kenny both come from a different game meta than current MS meta, this indicates to me that the site meta they come from people are generally much more hesitant with their votes and only vote for serious reasons. If this is the case, then Salsa vastly comes from a different meta than these two players because of their constant votes in 39, 40, and 44. What's more is that Salsa actually know this and just keeps voting Kenny for very little reason even though they are already voting for Kenny. And this happened BEFORE Kenny pointed out the 'only' E-2 comment.

Either way, it looks to be the case that Salsa has inside knowledge of Kenny's and StD's game meta that they come from. I'm hesitant to call out SvS interactions so early, but I'm not sure what another conclusion would be given this... the other option, I suppose, is that Salsa is Scum with floo. But this seems unlikely to defend a buddy so directly so early in the game.

Am I going crazy or is there something here?

[LicketyQuickety]

I'm caught up on only a few people to be completely honest, but I will say what I do kind of want to note. LQ's post #1220 is a post that I personally think is more likely to catch new scum over experienced ones, but I do think it comes from town so it strikes me as town so far.

None of the things I have done with my system is for sure going to catch Scum, but the bottom tends to be Scum and the Top tends to be Town. This is independent of players experience/skill.

[LicketyQuickety]

I still highly doubt that makes sense to have it independent of player's experiences and skills.

Well, why do you think I say that? I say that because I've caught Scum this way who were plenty experienced and quite good players.

[LicketyQuickety]

Only one way to find out!

Well, we are NOT Elimming Kenny before he has a chance to enter the thread.

[LicketyQuickety]

I still highly doubt that makes sense to have it independent of player's experiences and skills.

Well, why do you think I say that? I say that because I've caught Scum this way who were plenty experienced and quite good players.

Then you've had a different experience playing Mafia than I have before joining this website that confirms it to you but not to me. Most games in those have scum who at least knows not to lurk and have decent amount of discussion, or everyone ends up not talking so it would be skewed.

I'm not saying that you can't catch scum who is plenty experienced, since STD can confirm this himself that I pointed out his lurking like behavior when I was dead (Yes I know they had issues going on at the time but the point still stands).

It's not based on lurking.

[LicketyQuickety]

I still highly doubt that makes sense to have it independent of player's experiences and skills.

Well, why do you think I say that? I say that because I've caught Scum this way who were plenty experienced and quite good players.

Then you've had a different experience playing Mafia than I have before joining this website that confirms it to you but not to me. Most games in those have scum who at least knows not to lurk and have decent amount of discussion, or everyone ends up not talking so it would be skewed.

I'm not saying that you can't catch scum who is plenty experienced, since STD can confirm this himself that I pointed out his lurking like behavior when I was dead (Yes I know they had issues going on at the time but the point still stands).

It's not based on lurking.

And I account for # of posts. So it's more accurate than you would think. It measures impact of a player, not necessarily Scum/Town.

[LicketyQuickety]

hi town
i'll make you proud

This post is bugging me given CLSR had been voting for Norwee, then unvoted when Norwee was put at E-1, then hammered Norwee when Pav was like "WTF are you doing bro?"

[LicketyQuickety]

This post is bugging me given CLSR had been voting for Norwee, then unvoted when Norwee was put at E-1, then hammered Norwee when Pav was like "WTF are you doing bro?"

was it cold feet or a ploy to steal hammer away from pavowski?
the world may never know

Steal the hammer from Pav? I call BS on that move.

[LicketyQuickety]

VOTE: Kenny

RR's reasons for SRing Kenny are pretty legit when I poked them about it.

[LicketyQuickety]

VOTE: Kenny

RR's reasons for SRing Kenny are pretty legit when I poked them about it.

That's E-1.

[LicketyQuickety]

Humbly requesting STD place a vote before you v/la out.

Or CLS could just hammer here.

I'm not really in favor of a hammer yet.

[LicketyQuickety]

Actually, I don't really get what's the hurry here.

Why are you in a hurry for an Elim Pav?

[LicketyQuickety]

Okay, I feel Elimming Kenny today is the best move. Reason for this is that if Kenny is Scum, then it's game over. However, this should cause RR to reevaluate if Kenny is Town.

So let me ask RR: In the case that we Elim Kenny and Kenny flips Town, who are you going to target? I feel making this known is the best thing to do at this point since Town will know who is clear if you get NKed. OTOH, I really can't see StD as Scum now that Norwee flipped Scum. So I would suggest at least targeting away from StD. My pick for you to target would be Pav.

[LicketyQuickety]

RR pretty much has to JK tonight if they want a shot at not dying. Killing JK is number 1 priority for Scum at this point.

Also, pretty sure JK goes before NK, so if RR misses, then it's a free kill on JK. Having a confirmed Town is really bad for Scum. And given everyone is TRing me, and everyone should be TRing StD, then I'd say this is just about Auto for Town.

[LicketyQuickety]

What would be the point of a jailing going through if Radical is NKed tonight? So lets say scum targets Radical (with the kill, not the rolecopping) and Radical targets you. Radical is dead and you are jailed for the night. As there is no other possible night action, nothing can happen from or to your spot anyways.

1. JK goes before NK. So if Pav is Town, then the kill will go through on RR, BUT...

A.) It keeps a confirmed Town in the game even if RR dies.
B.) It clears a slot that is fairly Scummy based on players reads on Pav.

2. However, If Scum choose to not NK, then:

A.) RR is still alive next game day.
B.) We elim the player that RR JK.

3. If the player who RR JK is Elimed and flips Town, then:

A.) We are down a player and we No-Elim in MeLo.
B.) Repeat 2.

4. If we get a repeat of MeLo, then:

A.) We Elim RR's JK the next time.

5. If we Elim Town in MeLo Then:

A.) RR has one more shot to get it right.

[LicketyQuickety]

I will also point out, though, that rat announcing his target for tonight gives scum an opportunity to no-kill again to frame that person, so be on the lookout for that if, in fact, rat does choose to jail me.

This opportunity exists regardless of whether scum knows my target. I am the only viable NK target for scum that wants to win, and I can't protect myself, so that's not a concern for scum. They'll know ahead of time whether the kill will go through or not, but the actual decision whether to kill me or try to frame my target isn't affected.

And what are the other options?
You don't tell who you are going to target, you are unlucky with your pick (which has a 80 % probability if I am limmed) and are NKed. In this case, we (or better: the remaining townies) know nothing. I don't think that is good at all.
You could also try and trick scum by telling us you would jail a) but in reality are jailing b). This could pay off but in case of you getting NKed it would confirm a) as town even if he is the remaining scum. In this case it will be an easy win for scum. I don't like this either.

That's typically where RR would flip a coin between two people. I forgot about that strategy, but I just thought of it again when you gave the option for it.

[LicketyQuickety]

Anyways, we are talking in circles now.

I'm fine to end the day at this point.

[LicketyQuickety]

And yeah, this whole conversation is pretty meaningless at this point, but nothing better to do until we get a hammer.

Seriously? I just said we should say who we want you to jail tonight.

I think of everyone here I actually kind of want you to jailkeep either myself or Pavowski at this point.

I think RR should flip a coin on who to JK between you two.

[LicketyQuickety]

Another option has occurred to me.

We could let kenny live, for now, while I continue to jail him, and we eliminate elsewhere. If kenny's scum, no nightkills can happen, and he can be safely eliminated in elo.
If kenny's not scum, then the real scum has to choose between continuing to not kill, guaranteeing a win in elo, if they can survive the four attempts town has to hit them first, or killing me, confirming kenny's innocence in the process and sacrificing a guaranteed elo win for only needing to survive three eliminations instead of four.

This may actually be optimal, though if I'm right on kenny I don't really like the idea of just eliminating townies for the sake of it, if I'm wrong then limming kenny seems to put us in an objectively worse spot than not doing so.

We can still do this instead if people aren't comfortable with eliminating kenny anymore.

I don't see why we would delay Elimming Kenny. AFAIK, Kenny was blocked. Nothing Kenny has said since you said you JK him persuades me that he is Town. In fact, I think Kenny is being very slippery at this point. Plus if we elim Kenny now and Kenny flips Town then you have a shot at another JK. And your strategy would take some people off the table who I think could be Scum but are just not going to get Elimmed if we let Kenny live today. I'm thinking specifically of CLSR, because I think he could be Scum, but he's never getting Elimmed with your strategy.

[LicketyQuickety]

Why wouldn't he? We could eliminate him today even.

IDK, I just feel like by the time people are ready to vote for CLSR then it will be too late. I think we just Elim Kenny today. I don't think delaying it is optimal at all.

[LicketyQuickety]

Well if CLSR doesn’t hammer I will since we don’t seem to really be having any other conversations from the theory talk.

only town is allowed to hammer!!!!!!!!!!
VOTE: KENNYK

[LicketyQuickety]

VOTE: Pav

It could be strange, but I feel better here.

And it should be clear that CLSR is clear now.

[LicketyQuickety]

Question for the thread: Do you think StD pushes Salsa like that if it is SvS?

[LicketyQuickety]

Strange sorta doesn't have many takes. Am I wrong about this or not?

[LicketyQuickety]

If LQ is forsure town we win going pav->strange or strange->pav and I wouldn't mind going pav first because of how they tried to set me up if strange flips town.

:eyebrows:

[LicketyQuickety]

HURT: Strange
I read some stuff and think salsa interactions say scum

(Also Kenny was spewed town why was he limmed wow)

Such as what?

[LicketyQuickety]

What does that have to do with Strange?

[LicketyQuickety]

Anyway my point is salsa chainsawed for strange!slot attacking Kenny.

That quote about being willing to hammer strange!slot could be anything I think

X Doubt.

[LicketyQuickety]

Actually its weird how this game is paralleling another game I've played where Ythan (scum) got an easy push on me and then town also jumps on what I do or what my slot did and we lose.

I kinda don't think Scum say this.

And I'm going to be looking over Dwlee and considering them Scum if Pav is Town.

[LicketyQuickety]

It's Strange or Pav, the game is won as long as LQ doesn't throw.

[LicketyQuickety]

You were saying you thought I could be scum

That's throwing

I'm afraid I have not seen your role PM.

[LicketyQuickety]

CSL/LQ please set a timer to make sure you hammer this before deadline

I'm already voting for someone.

[LicketyQuickety]

Give me a world where STD hard busses his partner D1 and D2 and then tries to prevent a stupid mislim D3 as scum

If anyone would do that in this game (apart from me ) it would be StD.

[LicketyQuickety]

LQ please don't tank my townread on you if you're town

Am I not allowed to SR you? Asking for a friend. Because if you're just going to OMGUS me, that's not a legit reason for why I am Scum.

[LicketyQuickety]

bluh, maybe the way i think is too rigid

Comical, honestly.

[LicketyQuickety]

bluh, maybe the way i think is too rigid

Comical, honestly.

What the $%#! did you just say about me, you scummy mafia? I'll have you know that I'm top of the players on the Town of Salem forum, good as a motherfucking cow can be, and I have over 50 confirmed gamesolves. I am trained in meme warfare and I'm the top SK in the entire Town of Salem (kappa). You are nothing to me but just another gladiation target. I will vig you the $%#! out with the precision the likes of which has never been seen before in a ranked lobby.

LOL. Don't ever change.

[LicketyQuickety]

GG everyone.

It was fun!

[LicketyQuickety]

It really shouldn't work but does occasionally.

Completely agree.

[LicketyQuickety]

I have a question left for LQ: Was your deleted post intended for the private mafia chat of newbie game 2076?

No. It was part of this post which I put in a Private PM. I had been preparing the post in this thread so I could see it but I accidentally hit submit. The other game at the time was in night phase.

Spoiler:

Fair warning, this post is largely IIoA

Premise

Why does Mega claim that Cheeky visited DGB N2? That seems like utter suicide if Cheeky was RBed. If DGB was RBed, then wouldn't Cheeky still get a result? If DGB were Rolestopped then Shrek would be semi-innocent. If Cheeky was RBed, then Shrek is guilty. But if Mega didn’t know Cheeky’s result, then DGB was either Rolestoped or Abducted. That still says nothing about DGB/Shrek so we have to look at other data to sort DGB/Shrek given I am alive now.

Progression

DrippingGoofball

Spoiler: Progression on Mega

:

In 479 DBG says, quoting Mega, “I’m Town binning this player.”
DGB chainsaws Mega against Shek in 503. For some reason, DGB TRs Nero for making the case against Mega and SRs Shrek for agreeing with Nero. In Mega’s case against Nero, DGB puts down essentially a FoS on Mega in 505.
513 and 617 (back to back posts) are interesting.
In 1231 DGB says explicitly they don’t SR Mega.
Then Mega doesn’t turn up until 2884 where DGB sides with Mega against Cheeky.
DGB shades both Shrek and Mega in 3095, which further confirms both Shrek and Mega are not Scum if DGB is Scum. Shrek would have to be Town then.
In 3172 DGB says Cheeky’s claim is just as bad as Mega’s.
In 3236 and 3244, DGB finally gets around to SRing Mega and makes their last 2 posts.

Shrek

Spoiler: Progression on Mega

:

Reads List in 839 says this about Mega: Null: mega - has actively been trying to solve, but nero has raised good points against him. i would put him at lean town if it werent for his interaction with nero to begin with
Strong SR on Mega in 1125 accompanied by a vote.
In 1127 says there is resistance to Mega. Reiterates in 1129.
In 1211 asks DGB if they SR Mega. In 1234 Prods DGB about what they think of the case on Mega. In 1269 tells DGB to look at the case on Mega.
Still pressures Mega in 1449.
In 1459 says they have Mega as leading in Elim order.
In 1466 votes Gamma because the Mega wagon didn’t take.
In 1676 says this: "mega - literally self explanatory. disappeared for half the last phase after not tryin to scumsolve at all and i wouldnt mind him flipping today"
In 1696 says I should have Mega in my low impact players list.
In 1733 votes Mega again.
In 1750 says Red Mega makes Cheeky Green.
Calls out Mega on the BS of reading them in 1760.
1775 Shades Mega.
Says “mega who is almost certainly scum” in 1878.
Tells Nero in 1901 they want to lynch Mega before Cyrus.
In 1947 tells me to ISO Mega.
“i want mega over cyrus” in 2099.
Stops the pressure on Mega to vote for Cyrus and says we will catch Mega with their claim, which is exactly what happened.
In 2635 says we should have Limed Mega.
Pressures Mega in 2733. Says they want one of Cheeky or Mega gone in 3152 with a vote on Mega. Gives reasons for SRing Mega in 3160. Puts pressure on Mega for 3 more posts.

DrippingGoofball

Spoiler: Progression on Cheeky

:

In 357 Cheeky asks DGB if they SR both Shrek and Roden. DGB say Roden is more likely Scum.
Vote’s Cheeky in 509 with very poor reasoning IMO.
In 513, DGB gets the order reversed and says if Cheeky flips Red then Mega is Green.
In 778 DGB chainsaws Mega to Cheeky.
In 2250 DGB tells Cheeky they are 1-Shot.
2287: You’re welcome!
2308 looks like a buddy attempt.
2610 is a WIFOM read on Gamma in response to Cheeky asking about them.
In 2642 DGB calls Cheeky Scum.
In 2883 DGB calls both Shrek and Cheeky Scum.
In 2886 DGB asks what Cheeky’s claim is.

Shrek

Spoiler: Progression on Cheeky

:

In Reads List: “cheeky - i honestly think that the interaction between her and nero right now is strictly tvt… I'm putting him the highest outta everyone.” in 177.
Reads list in 839 cheeky - i dont entirely agree with the reads list they posted but its basically the same case as with lq where i cant see them being partnered with anyone.
Lots of cooperation with Cheeky until:
Asks for a Town block including Cheeky in 1463.
“me/cheeky/lq/nero/possibly roden is the townbloc” in 1676.
1677 “cheeky is not scum wtf are you smoking”
1682 “i'm hard town reading cheeky”
Some cooperation, and defending Cheeky, then,
“cheeky is obvtown” in 1864.
3146 “n1 im sure i wasnt blocked because std visited cheeky”

DrippingGoofball

Spoiler: Progression on Shrek

:

Empty shade on Shrek in 503.
Goes directly against Shrek as a principle in 1165. Continues in 2131.
In 1266 DGB, in response to Shrek says they “forgot the case” against Mega. In 1287 DGB, in response to Shrek, acknowledges the case on Mega and says, “I can see it” but does nothing with it.
Next mention of Shrek by DGB is in 2641 where DGB naked votes Shrek.
DGB complains about Shrek being Scum until 3041 where DGB finally is asking questions about what happened to trying to get Shek in the hood?
DGB goes back to saying the opposite to Shrek in 3172

Shrek

Spoiler: Progression on DGB

:

Reads List in 839 “inconclusive: dgb - wanna say that hes town based on how it seems like hes actively tryin to sort and scumsolve but i am completely unfamiliar with his style of play
In 895 “dgb's take makes me want to move them up to leans town”
“i agree with dgb’s play here actually.” 1850.
1904 “idk what motivation dgb would have to fake claim especially if its to save mega.”
To Cyrus: “what do you think of dgb’s PR claim then? are they faking it?” In 2076.
“i completely understand where dgb/lq are coming from so do NOT get on them either just yet” In 2668.
2720 “cheeky dgb isnt ascetic. im a tracker and dgb didnt perform an action last night which means it was either rbed or is lying about what it is”
3134 “dgb may have actually targeted me but it didnt show up then”
3183 “why would scum choose to rb cheeky randomly when dgb not being able to add someone to its hood is an infinitely better option"

DrippingGoofball

Spoiler: (Bonus) Progression on Roden

:

111 is Sketchy since it looks like DGB is drawing at straws on a read like that.
118 and 121 look a bit like early distancing with Roden (confirmed in 343).
In 618 DGB posts a “WTF?” at Roden and then starts to TR them in 621, for what I can see of very little reason.
618 is very weird because Roden says, “You're pushing a false narrative that Mega wants you bussed.” I can see no reason why DGB wants to TR Roden for that post (this post came up earlier).
DGB makes a very WIFOM-y read on Roden in 786.
There’s a huge gap where there’s not mention/interaction between Roden and DGB and they now have a strong TR on Roden at this point in the game (see 2604).

Town/Scum Analysis

DrippingGoofball

Spoiler: Town/Scum

Here’s a list of number and times that DGB calls a player Town/Scum (In cohesive order):

Here’s a fancy way of interpreting DGB’s reads (given DGB is Scum):

Scum = Town
Mixed = Town
Town = Scum

Town

Cheeky 0/10

Shrek 0/5
Cyrus 1/4

StD 1/1
Gamma 1/1

T3 2/1

AA9 1/0
A50 1/0

DW 2/0

Nero 3/0
Roden 3/0

Everyone DGB has called Scum is actually Town if Kitty and Shek are Town that is. That means Kitty and Shrek are both Town (See 3035) because of them being outliers and them being SR. We know Cheeky is confirmed Town. And Shrek resolves as Town with a DGB Scum flip. So we can reasonably guess that Kitty is Town as well.

Shrek

Spoiler: Town/Scum

Here’s a list of number and times that DGB calls a player Town/Scum (in cohesive order):

Interpreting Shek's reads (given Shek is Scum):

Scum = Town
Town = Town
Mixed = Mixed
N/A = N/A

Cyrus 0/4
Cheeky 7/0
Nero 6/0
DW 5/0

Roden 3/0
Norweirgh 2/0
StD 0/2

A50 1/0
Gamma 1/0
DGB 1/0

T3 1/4
Mega 1/5

Kitty 0/0
AA9 0/0
DotW 0/0

Results are a bit inconclusive. It's possible Shek's Null Reads are Scum, but that would be weird given the mixed results are Null.

Non-Associatives

DrippingGoofball

On a DGB Red flip:
Soft-Clears: Gamma, DW, Cheeky

Shrek

On a Shrek Red flip:
Clears: AA9, Roden
Soft-Clears: Gamma

Conclusion

These two players could not be more diametrically opposed to each other. They have opposite reads on the Elimed and on each other. Where DGB TR's Mega, Shrek SR's. Where DGB SR's Cheeky, Shrek TR's. And DGB reads Shrek as Scum whereas Shrek reads DGB as Town. To make matter more polar opposite, You could virtually flip the reads upsidown in terms of what reads they gave on all the rest of the players in this game.

If DGB is Scum, then they are likely teamed with a PoE of Roden and/or Nero, and AA9 and/or A50. If Shrek is Scum the PoE is likely DotW, Kitty, and A50.

So that is the information I have for you. Vote wisely.

VOTE: DGB

I think it was a good post, but I came to the wrong conclusion on it. My mistake was that Shrek had TMI and DGB didn't.