Newbie 2087 | Celebrating Betty White | End!

[MalcolmTucker]

Hello all.

[MalcolmTucker]

The way I see it, both Ahri and LicketyQuickety are the stars of Day 1. I think Ahri is trying way too hard to get on everyone's good terms, while LQ is doing the exact opposite, defending his position against everyone he disagrees with. In short, they're both drawing attention to themselves.

Would scum really try to draw attention to themselves this early in the game? This is literally my first game on the site, so I don't quite know where the meta is right now. But without other information, I'm giving a townlean to both of them.

I'd largely agree with this take. Certainly feels unlikely both would be mafia if they're both drawing attention to the other, so will be one guaranteed townie in there. So far LQ's style especially strikes me a bit more as a forensic townie looking at things from a more analytical POV.

[MalcolmTucker]

The way I see it, both Ahri and LicketyQuickety are the stars of Day 1. I think Ahri is trying way too hard to get on everyone's good terms, while LQ is doing the exact opposite, defending his position against everyone he disagrees with. In short, they're both drawing attention to themselves.

Would scum really try to draw attention to themselves this early in the game? This is literally my first game on the site, so I don't quite know where the meta is right now. But without other information, I'm giving a townlean to both of them.

I'd largely agree with this take. Certainly feels unlikely both would be mafia if they're both drawing attention to the other, so will be one guaranteed townie in there. So far LQ's style especially strikes me a bit more as a forensic townie looking at things from a more analytical POV.

forensic townie xD

if we vote LQ today and they flip scum this player is getting speed voted out of D2 no questions asked

I'll wait for more votes but I'd put this player at a 3/10 for now

"Forensic" in the sense of wanting to take a more detailed look at individual players instead of just throwing around accusations based on vibes. The latter has its place too, of course, because it can be an effective way to shake things up and draw out people into making weird posts.

No idea why you're so keen on me being a prime suspect after only having made a couple of posts so far. You've got very little evidence to go on with that and you're largely just throwing out your gut feeling and extrapolating whatever is convenient.

And if you suspect LQ, their teammate jumping in to casually defend them wouldn't exactly be overly subtle.

[MalcolmTucker]

These two are extremely town. They're the ones pushing the scumhunt forward. If it turns out one or both of them are mafia, I'll be extremely surprised and impressed.

I don't think there's enough to be heavily suspicious of them yet (as is the case with anyone in the first round of voting) but I don't think this is particularly a guarantee of them being town at all. In a quieter game I think it'd make sense for at least one mafia to try and drive the townies in a direction that suits them and become seen as an authority who can be trusted. Especially if they get rid of someone who's either quiet or who we don't have much of a read on. It genuinely could just be townies working hard to find scum but far from guaranteed.

[MalcolmTucker]

From a personal POV just unluckily often been available at points where the game has been quiet so far, hopefully more active in days to come.

From past experience playing - it matters more on the player re lurkers. If someone is usually very involved or fairly quiet as a townie but suddenly switches it up then it can be a decent sign something is up, whether they're mafia or have a main role. But obviously playing in the dark with it being my first time.

As I mentioned on a previous page, it's just generally too early for anyone to be able to confidently identify someone as mafia barring some major slip-up. Patterns will only start to become obvious once we're voting I reckon.

[MalcolmTucker]

Can't figure out if Ahri's approach is just kinda being chaotic and having fun (as they suggested initially), or a mafia getting more heavily involved to try and steer the direction of the townies. Like I said, risky move, but can be effective if you manage to eliminate a couple of townies without generating much suspicion.

[MalcolmTucker]

From a personal POV just

unluckily often been available at points where the game has been quiet so far, hopefully more active in days to come.

[cut] Patterns will only start to become obvious once we're voting I reckon.

Hi Malcolm, so I've tried to catch up each time I log on, and it can be hard work, are you saying you haven't read all the posts or are you saying they're not worth your comments as it's too early? And what about voting? I'm waiting myself as I don't really know what to do with my vote. There's a few experienced players that I thought might start some sort of vote train but nothing has happened despite a couple of them mentioning that vote trains are good on day one. So that makes me think there are players who are being reluctant.

Sorry - I've thread through the whole thread and caught up on whatever I've missed from when I've not been around. Just that I've often not been free at times when the thread has actually been active. Although I'll likely take another peak through some of the previous stuff and look at some individual posters to see if I can spot any interesting patterns or anything revealing we've missed. But as I say often limited before voting begins...can end up overthinking it because there's no real evidence either way so far.

What's everyone's thoughts on best way to approach voting? Ganging up on someone may limit any info we can take from the vote later on, but obviously just all choosing at random risks someone important getting kicked out without being able to put up much of a defence.

[MalcolmTucker]

*Read through sorry, obviously.

[MalcolmTucker]

...but obviously just all choosing at random risks someone important getting kicked out without being able to put up much of a defence.

Why's that? If random votes put someone at E-1, they'll have time to defend themselves before the hammering vote. Neither mafia or town would hammer early. Whoever does it would immediately draw suspicion to themselves.

Fair enough, forgetting how spaced out the votes are compared to in-person games where it can be a lot more manic and immediate.

[MalcolmTucker]

Progo is by all accounts a new player (as they've started), any inconsistencies being pointed out could quite easily be related to that. Not getting enough of a vibe to start a bandwagon yet. Quite frankly some players are a lot more confidence than anyone realistically should be at this point in the game, unless they're just trying to tactically draw out errors.

[MalcolmTucker]

*as they've stated, for some reason lost the ability to spell

[MalcolmTucker]

Sorry for being apologetic I guess.

There's not much else to say. I already deduced you're town a long time ago.

Even so, I think it's worth engaging in a conversation with the people on your wagon to try and change people's minds, so if you're town, town isn't voting town the entire day.

Alright, I'll give it a shot.

First, do you agree with this post from Ahri?

like progo

My issue with you being town: You have a really carefree attitude sprinkled in with some logic, and the two defensive posts in the middle of your ISO just stick out so much

[...]

My issue with you being mafia: if you're mafia, your reads limits you and your partner's gameplay drastically

[...]

I personally don't see why there's anything weird or contradictory about someone (yourself or otherwise) generally being quite carefree while then getting quite defensive so early into the game. Again, we've got such limited info that people are taking any small things which interests them and generally twisting it ever so slightly to suit their own logic, or to look like they're a confident player with a good read on the game when most of us are ultimately in the dark to an extent. Either way our first vote is likely to end up being somewhat random and based on guesswork unless someone makes a major mistake.

[MalcolmTucker]

As a great man once said, you must start somewhere.

Of course, as I've said myself elsewhere, nothing wrong with that! Part of the fun is trying to draw people out and find inconsistencies in logic which could implicate them down the line. But there's a difference between mild suspicions/hunches and someone confidently saying they reckoned they've identified mafia off of one or two of their initial posts. In fact, if I were going to make a similar jump of logic, someone who appears overly desperate to be accusing others at the start of the game could come across as a player desperate not to seem like they're sitting on the fence.

[MalcolmTucker]

I'm unsure if Ahri is definitely mafia because her posting style is so erratic and all over the place and would only draw attention. But if she's town then I don't imagine she'd have a major role for the same reason.

Voting for herself because conveniently switching it up at the next possible moment struck me as particularly suspicious though and was quite odd, so think that makes me more confident to vote for her than anyone else.

VOTE: Ahri

Bold tags added ~f

[MalcolmTucker]

progo is town, sommos is town

What makes you so certain about Somnus? I think they've played well so far insofar as they have a fairly analytical and level-headed style, but that's easily something you could expect from a wily mafia member who knows how to be careful and active without drawing attention to themselves.

I'm unsure on Progo. But I don't think the "if" slip-up was a particular indication of being mafia at all. If anything, you'd expect a mafia member to be extra careful with that type ofb thing to avoid it, and the benefit of any misdirect would be so minimal anyway that it doesn't seem like a clever gambit to use to try and draw suspicion away from yourself, especially if you've already been under a bit of pressure.

[MalcolmTucker]

Having read through again, nothing changing on my opinion on Progo.

Andante seeming increasingly suspect...but again some of those suspicious moves just seem far too obvious for a mafia. Do we reckon the vote for PAD was just a rookie mistake? Could be, but also a convenient way to opt for a player saying very little if they didn't know they were gone.

[MalcolmTucker]

Voting for herself because

conveniently switching it up at the next possible moment struck me as particularly suspicious though and was quite odd

, so think that makes me more confident to vote for her than anyone else.

Why do you think this is scummy behavior versus erratic townie behavior?

Malcolm while you're here, penny for your thoughts.

I've said myself it absolutely could be erratic townie behaviour but it just seems like such an odd move, especially when she then reneged on it anyway. Could be a gambit from someone aware they're coming under a fair bit of pressure. Not 100% but Ahri's the one we've gotten the best read on so far and there's plenty of questionable stuff there. More confident in voting for her at the moment than anyone else.

[MalcolmTucker]

Going to be honest, I find Ahri's "I'm posting and developing the game a lot so I can't be mafia" line to be incredibly suspicious in its own right. Mafia may tend toward caution but some posters just like to have fun with it and enjoying posting a lot irrespective of where they sit. Indeed if all mafia employed an identical style it'd be a lot easier to suss them out! It's also perfectly valid for a team of two or more to have one much more active player and someone/some people who prefer to hang back a bit and be careful. Saying "I am playing this way so I can't be mafia" just doesn't play for me, especially since an active game can help mafia draw out players with important roles and allows them to suss out who's best to eliminate on their own end. Not to mention...plenty of Ahri's early posts weren't developing the game all that much and were just for fun. Which, again, is fine, but it's hardly crucial to gameplay.

[MalcolmTucker]

this is what I'm talking about.. like, if effort = town. then I'm maf. but I tr progo over ahri soooo

VOTE: Ahri

My argument has nothing to do with effort. The mafia knows that I'm town and acting the way she's acting towards me makes no sense for someone who knows that I'm town.

Unless I'm misreading your argument, I don't think it's particularly out of the ordinary that Ahri would identify a Town player and do all she can to get rid of them early on while latching onto some theories/ideas as to why she thinks it's you. Townies get things wrong in mafia constantly, especially early on - it's part of the game. Mafia need to show some conviction but obviously aren't going to throw each other under the bus unless it becomes convenient to their aims.

[MalcolmTucker]

I'm going to stick with Ahri as I reckon she's mafia, but I wouldn't have an issue with Andante being voted out - she's not done much to clear her name at all and has avoided being particularly convincing or forceful about any reads or views thus far, which is suspicious...but then at the same time even her defence at the prospect of being voted out felt so casual and unconcerned as well to the point where it may be how she plays. But after Ahri I'd struggle to think of anyone else who warrants being voted out so far.

[MalcolmTucker]

Deadline is in 2.5 days.

I'd also compromise on Malcolm or korina.

Reading back through - not sure I particularly get the logic of this. It'd only really apply for me if we had no viable mafia candidates at all, or if those viable candidates were strong enough as players to the point where we wouldn't want to risk getting rid of them unless we were certain.

My contributions have been somewhat limited due to timezone stuff and when I can actually be active but I've still given semi-regular contributions and have been fairly consistent and measured in my accusations, I'd say. Likewise Korina is new to the game and voting them out would give us literally no info. Getting rid of someone solely because they've not said a lot strikes me as a move that'd give us literally no info going forward - if any of Progo/Ahri/Andate are voted out we will have a decent chance of catching mafia (most of us would agree on that), and if they aren't mafia then we've got a wealth of info for who's been accusing them so far and how that alters the game going forward.

[MalcolmTucker]

Unless I've missed something that enoxerates her Ahri is coming across as completely obvious mafia to me at this point, masking her sort of chaotic activity as a reason she supposedly can't be, which doesn't make any sense...perfectly legit strategy for a mafia to want to direct the town.

I also reckon we've got one mafia who did join the bandwagon and another who didn't. Too obvious for them both to go for it, but a useful bandwagon to have anyway since Andante had made herself look so suspicious by contributing so little.

I'm aware it implicates me a little...but like I say a solid go at someone who didn't join a bandwagon is a solid shout next. Andante is out, as is StrangeMatter (who surely isn't mafia if they've left out of frustration), therefore Ahri is quite evidently the best shout there.

As for an unlikely candidate, I wouldn't rule out Somnus if they don't get eliminated next round by the mafia. Along with LQ they've probably been the strongest player so far in terms of putting across decent analysis without coming across as particularly sketchy or obvious mafia. But they're also quite clearly a good player and capable of avoiding heavy suspicion. An Ahri/Somnus team is not a terrible shout for me, but like I say I'd need to see what happens in the upcoming round before being fully suspicious of Somnus.

[MalcolmTucker]

Beyond that, I don't think it was necessarily a bad choice to go for Andante, because she'd done herself no favours in terms of clearing her name...but it was also a very, very easy bandwagon for people to jump on without putting too much heat on themselves. Especially for a mafia who'd have viewed it as an easy target to get rid of. Like I say, almost certainly one on that bandwagon. With LQ gone, narrows it down. So Ahri and one of the other four players for me.

[MalcolmTucker]

Korina especially still seems like an odd choice. New to the game, hadn't said an incredible amount so far, just such an easy cop-out choice to go for along with the main bandwagon.

Also notable that Ahri kinda seemed to go in on LQ on the first page a bit during the initial exchanges, but very much backed out after sussing that LQ was a fairly clever and interrogative player.

[MalcolmTucker]

These two are extremely town. They're the ones pushing the scumhunt forward. If it turns out one or both of them are mafia, I'll be extremely surprised and impressed.

I don't think there's enough to be heavily suspicious of them yet (as is the case with anyone in the first round of voting) but I don't think this is particularly a guarantee of them being town at all. In a quieter game I think it'd make sense for at least one mafia to try and drive the townies in a direction that suits them and become seen as an authority who can be trusted. Especially if they get rid of someone who's either quiet or who we don't have much of a read on. It genuinely could just be townies working hard to find scum but far from guaranteed.

This is quite the abrasive read. I disagree with it as those 2 are pretty obvious choices for the towniest two in that time of the game, the beginning.

From a personal POV just unluckily often been available at points where the game has been quiet so far, hopefully more active in days to come.

From past experience playing - it matters more on the player re lurkers. If someone is usually very involved or fairly quiet as a townie but suddenly switches it up then it can be a decent sign something is up, whether they're mafia or have a main role. But obviously playing in the dark with it being my first time.

As I mentioned on a previous page, it's just generally too early for anyone to be able to confidently identify someone as mafia barring some major slip-up. Patterns will only start to become obvious once we're voting I reckon.

A whole lotta nothing here parading around as content.

Can't figure out if Ahri's approach is just kinda being chaotic and having fun (as they suggested initially), or a mafia getting more heavily involved to try and steer the direction of the townies. Like I said, risky move, but can be effective if you manage to eliminate a couple of townies without generating much suspicion.

Not a bad

theory

as I could put it. It just seems like, a bit surface level of a read that you could make on any number of early townleaders that you could make, you know.

Progo is by all accounts a new player (as they've started), any inconsistencies being pointed out could quite easily be related to that

. Not getting enough of a vibe to start a bandwagon yet. Quite frankly some players are a lot more confidence than anyone realistically should be at this point in the game, unless they're just trying to tactically draw out errors.

So anyway, any reason why this isn't mafia?

-Malcolm talks about Progo a lot

I kinda like Malcom's insistence that mafia is Ahri in 689 and 758 and especially 916

I think Malcom has been a bit rigid with their worldview, wouldn't be opposed to a vote on Malcolm but there is the Ahri thing making me think they could easily be town.

One of the main reasons I talked about Progo a fair bit was simply due the fact there was a distinct phase of the game where they were under particular suspicion and I didn't find the reasoning for them being so was particularly strong.

I know you weren't initially convinced by Ahri at all but I see no reason she can't be mafia. Her posting style is chaotic and all over the place but especially in a newbie game I see no reason that can't just be a mafia player who enjoys playing that way. And she has specifically used elements of this for arguing against being mafia - things like posting a lot, which could easily be a mafia trying to drive the town in a certain direction. In fact, I'd have if anything found it stranger if she'd started out one way and then become much more calculated due to a teammate telling her to be more restrained.

And thus far, either way, her posting style has pretty much helped her evade any proper and consistent suspicion...so if she is mafia, it's working.

Like I said, I reckon we've got one mafia in the Andante bandwagon and one mafia who avoided jumping onto it. I personally doubt SM was mafia but it strikes me as unlikely that a mafia would back out like that, and quite frankly would border on game-ruining behaviour if someone decides to throw the dummy out simply because they were coming under suspicion instead of defending themselves, so I'm inclined to TR you for now. That leaves me and Ahri, and it isn't me. Not to mention I'd at least been consistent in suspecting Ahri long before the Andante bandwagon was even finalised.

[MalcolmTucker]

Reading back, your suspicion of CSF may have some legs, very, very flippy around the time of the vote. Lots of theories/suspicions without necessarily being too concrete on any.

[MalcolmTucker]

Yeah I see why someone would look at her posts and get an immediate TR but with every passing interaction/phase of the game I've become more determined she's almost a lock for mafia.

[MalcolmTucker]

Reading back, your suspicion of CSF may have some legs, very, very flippy around the time of the vote.

Wut? I distinctly remember you being rather non-commital towards the end of the day as well, being on Ahri but okay with Andante lim (758) and even Progo to a lesser extent in (760). How is that different?

Lots of theories/suspicions without necessarily being too concrete on any.

Examples? I have been pretty adamant about scum in {Korina, you, Progo} and definitely wanted to lim on the Andante wagon today.

My point there was that I was going to vote for Ahri but I didn't think Andante was a particularly horrendous candidate because she'd not contributed much so far and had been fairly flippy. There's a major difference between that and being between three different candidates as you're making out here, which is a really, really big stretch. I reckon Progo is probably TR but not completely in the clear, as I've repeatedly said from the start.

[MalcolmTucker]

Why is having three different candidates in a game a big stretch with 2 scum...? If I only had 2, that'd be tantamount to solving the game.

You had two distinct votes within a short time before the elimination was made, would have been happy to off me, and said you wouldn't have been against a Korina elimination either. That's three candidates you either voted for or strongly suspected. Inherently different to me having one I was strongly suspicious of, and another player I wouldn't particularly be against us getting rid of if agreed upon. Major reach.

Honestly, reading back, if one mafia did just on the bandwagon and another avoided doing so then you/Ahri as a team wouldn't be particularly beyond the pale. Not convinced it's you yet but as good a candidate as anyone else on the bandwagon.

[MalcolmTucker]

Re your point about me potentially being alright with Progo, that's a misreading of what I said. I was only referring to Progo in terms of being one of the main contenders in day one who'd come under suspicion and who for a while had a chance of going out along with potentially Ahri or Andante. Nobody else had seen anything like a consistent bandwagon against them at that point. I've been fairly consistent in TR'ing Progo without necessarily being certain of their status in day one, at a point when it's obviously difficult to be certain about anyone.

[MalcolmTucker]

If she were scum, I still don't see why Ahri would push a counterwagon to Andante yesterday if she's scum here.

Ahri was an elim contender yesterday. By pushing a counterwagon on Korina, she risked the Andante wagon losing momentum and the elim swinging to her (Ahri) instead. Feels unnecessarily risky.

Ahri's whole strategy has been incomprehensible at times though, she was even voting for herself at one point, but then quickly reneged on doing so!

To explore another possibility...is it possible we have an Ahri/Korina team? Ahri fears she'll go out so pushes a risk-free vote on her teammate which essentially gives them a layer of protection if she goes out and comes back as mafia. Although again...even that feels too logical and thought out given her approach.

[MalcolmTucker]

OK I did misread your stance on Progo. I guess I still don't see why being okay with 1 of 3 people limmed is that different from 1 of 2 though. But whatever it's not that important.

Ahri said she wanted a 1v1 today with either her or Korina out of the game, gladiator style. You could argue it's bluffing, but I really don't get SvS vibes there.

Ah fair enough on the latter part, missed that particular post.

[MalcolmTucker]

2. So were you just townreading consensus town players for the sake of it at the beginning of the game and not actually believing it? That's what I'm confused about now.

At the start, I had no idea how to play the game, so I just let other people do the thinking for me.

Surely if you understood the very basic objectives and goals of the game though then you'd still be able to formulate your own thoughts and opinions in that regard? I get why you wouldn't want to go in too heavy (personally it can seem a bit desperate to me if someone is determined they've caught someone a few hours into the game), but would it not then make sense to sit back and see how others are playing and suss them out? Instead of trying to blend in by just agreeing with what others say?

[MalcolmTucker]

both of you - why am i scum in this pool?

Some of your posts, like 1009 and 966, make me think you're just going through the motions of asking people questions without thinking about what the answers may be.

Your reaction to SM replace out was strange. Dude probably got tilted from trying his best and getting insulted, so it seemed, at worst, NAI to me but more likely town indicative.

Looking back at your ISO, 769 is also a weird post. how was Ahri going to be cleared N1?

I don't see what's particularly odd about either of those posts. They're legitimate questions to ask and if we're looking at candidates for fairly frivolous and meaningless posts to fill up space so far there have been much worse players than that for Korina.

[MalcolmTucker]

Fair enough, does feel slightly suspicious that it didn't take particularly long until you were suddenly posting fairly detailed analysis compared to how you'd played at the start, but then you have been consistently active and engaged so could be picking it up quickly.

[MalcolmTucker]

In addition to that, I don't mean to speak on behalf of Malcolm, but I think:

1.) He genuinely finds Ahri annoying and
2.) He genuinely thinks Ahri is scum

I don't think his push is solely or even primarily personal. I disagree with his read on Ahri for now, but that doesn't mean it's invalid. I'd like to think that no one is taking accusations and votes in this game personally.

Going to need to catch up on the last couple of days, but yeah, my view on Ahri is genuinely that she is a member of the mafia team. There was a brief period after my initial suspicion where I was wondering if I'd maybe gotten it wrong, but once she started using her erratic playing style as a genuine reason as to why she wouldn't be mafia my suspicions ramped right up again. I'm willing to accept I could be wrong but it's the one read I've consistently held since I had any particular reads.

And like I've said, my general view is we'll have had one mafia who jumped on the bandwagon and one who stayed off it in Day 1. I'm personally not mafia and that leaves Ahri, provided Cape isn't mafia due to SM also not being on the bandwagon. Cape, of course, could be mafia...but I think it'd have been really crappy gameplay for SM to drop out just because Ahri was applying some heat, considering the point of the game is to try and clear yourself if you're mafia.

My read of Ahri is absolutely not personal either...her style has been irritating or erratic at times but I appreciate it can have value in a quieter game. But when you start using that style as a reason to say you're not mafia? Yeah, that's suspect.

[MalcolmTucker]

That actually sounds pretty reasonable to me. I do want to point out one thing that I've seen mentioned in the game a few times though. There seems to be this idea that scum players rarely drop out of games and that it's disproportionately town players who do so. Taking a quick glance through some of the recent completed newbie games, scum players absolutely do drop out, arguably at a higher rate than town players (don't quote me on that). Just look at the last several completed newbie games on here. Town-reading Cape is fine. I've done so as well, despite some questions I had about the slot at the start of Day 2, but the idea that he can't be scum because his predecessor quit the game is rather faulty, and the last however many newbie games shows that.

I don't know how much I'll be around tonight, so in the unlikely event that a wagon somehow dramatically springs up...

UNVOTE: MalcolmTucker

Fair enough, I'm new to the site but as a general rule I'd have typically assumed beforehand that once we were a good turn or so into a game, if a player dropped out their part would just be eliminated, but evidently that's not the case. Would be a bit pissed off if SM was mafia and has dropped out...potentially given their team a big advantage just because they were getting annoyed by another player. And while I reckon Ahri is mafia, if it actually was SM, then his comments about Ahri being infurating would feel a bit hypocritical given Ahri would've been in the right by applying pressure.

Cape has made a really solid start to the game and along with you has probably been the best currently active "town" player in terms of level-headed analysis and putting the pieces together. But it does make me wonder - given we've eliminated two townies so far - if one of you could potentially be mafia. I don't particularly suspect Cape for the reasons provided beforehand but your context would potentially change that a bit. Personally I don't think you've done anything in particular to come across as mafia-like...but then you could just be playing a blinder!

[MalcolmTucker]

i think somnus is putting too much effort to be scum here. like, if somnus is putting that much effort in, and flips scum, kudos, but like, i don't think newbie!scum does that here.

and looking over progo's play, i don't think it's anything spectacular? i think by now, i probably would've killed him by now but like, i'm sticking firmly by the fact the claim feels either super townie, or is scum trying to survive at any cost. it's smoething i'd probably re-read when i'm sober.

I don't think this would particularly rule out Somnus being mafia at all. It's perfectly legitimate for a mafia player to make big, detailed posts for the sole purpose of avoiding suspicion and coming across as active and knowledgeable to the town. I don't think it makes them look more mafia either, genuinely not something that would sway me either way.

Unsure if Somnus is a complete newbie or not either. Getting the sense they're at least quite skilled and have played somewhere in the past.

[MalcolmTucker]

i know i’m town
i think progo is town via claim
i think you’re town via play
i think somnus is town via play
i think ahri is town via play

leaving just malcolm and caps

Reading back, and aware you may have been making these posts as some drunken speculation, but think we need to remember the voting for turn one, and how mafia would approach that.

From a personal POV, if I was mafia and I was organising how to vote with a teammate, at least one of us would be on that Andante bandwagon. There's plenty of people on it, and there's players there you can try to turn the heat up on in day two once Andante comes back as town. You don't want to both go on it, there's lots of decent cover.

Why would SM (now Cape) and myself both opt for the same player in vote one? Remember, if we're both mafia, Ahri is then town. If you eliminate one of us and we come back mafia, that would basically confirm Ahri as town. At that point the best move as a town would surely be to eliminate the other player who voted for Ahri, because if you've nailed one mafia then it's a big of a no-lose situation...you've already got a huge advantage as a town, so there's not much that can go wrong if it turns out the other player genuinely did suspect Ahri as a townie (like I do currently).

It's just a complete no-go. There's no reason for mafia to both fixate on the same townie together if they're trying to distance themselves from each other. Doesn't make any sense.

[MalcolmTucker]

The continuation of my reads:

TOWN LEAN

Somnus

• While I'm still taken aback for how quickly and how intensely Ahri has been Town Reading Somnus, I still agree with that. Nothing in their ISO seemed to suggest they're anything but a Townie who likes to solve the mystery.
  
  
  Veredict:
  I believe they're town.

StrangeMatter

• First of all, Ahri's Post 579 was
  completely
  uncalled for. I don't blame them at all for jumping on the Ahri wagon.
  
  Acts like they want to do investigations, and yet they didn't give their reads on many people. This can be considered scummy, because this leaves enough ambiguity to change their strategies later.
  
  The first time a wagon on me was formed, StrangeMatter defended me. In that situation, I would expect scum to push against me. If if they don't outright vote for me, I expected at least for them to express doubt about me, so that they could vote me later. They defended me instead, so this is evidence of them being town.
  
  
  Verdict:
  I believe my third point outweighs the second. So I believe they're town.

NULL

Korina

• Not much from that slot before the replacement. Pale Ale Dog was mostly afk, but he did gave a TR to Cat, LQ and Ahri, and a SR to StrangeMatter.
  
  Korina, suspects Ahri, and it's fine wagoning on Andante or Malcolm. Their reactions are in line with what I would expect for someone who's catching on, regardless of being town or mafia.
  
  
  Verdict:
  Because of them just showing up, I don't have much to say about them.

MalcolmTucker

• He haven't posted much, but I don't immediately buy the "lurker = mafia" mentality.
  
  He suspects Ahri and Andante over general suspicious behavior.
  
  
  Veredict:
  I don't have much to say. He didn't give me much to work with.

SCUM LEAN

Andante

• She confessed to being drunk during every post she made during her V/LA. During that period, she suspected LQ and argued with him.
  
  After the V/LA, she admitted to being suspicious and claimed that anyone who says she's town has TMI and it's mafia. She then pointed out that Ahri's "I want to hear more of Andante" and calling her "controversial" are probably clever ways to avoid saying "Andante is town". She's been suspecting Ahri since.
  
  Meanwhile, Cat is questioning her and Somnus is analyzing her posts, both of them scumleaned Andante. Andante TRd Cat for putting in the effort, but SRd Somnus for... I guess tunneling?
  
  She TRs me and agrees with me that there was mafia in my wagon. But she's still suspecting Ahri, so that might be the reason.
  
  Votes Pale Ale Dog's slot as soon as he asks for a replacement, to "give the new person pressure". No one followed her lead, but she does express her intentions to scumhunt that slot.
  
  Post #664: "that is so many words. uhh if Ahri feels that confidently in something, I'm down to sheep". This is the most problematic post from her. At this point, she TR me and SR Ahri (she'll even vote Ahri again once it is clear that her vote towards PAL was going nowhere). And yet, she's willing to flip that 180º and vote me with Ahri because of her long post explaining why. Later, she'll argue against the "effort = town" mentality, which just makes it more inconsistent.
  
  Korina (PAD's replace in) shows up. Andante interpreted Korina's Post #753 as TMI. I can't say if she's seriously suspecting Kotrina, or if she's just following through with her words about scumhunting PAD's slot.
  
  
  Verdict:
  If she's town, her strategy is to act as suspicious as possible in order to catch someone with TMI. However, I don't agree with her TMI accusations against Ahri and Kotrina. It also sounds like a bad plan, because wouldn't mafia try to cast more suspicion on a townie that's casting suspicion on themselves? That's why I'm more inclined to believe Andante is mafia.

Since we'd had an interaction about you picking up the game really quickly the other day after a shaky start, I'm finding this post very interesting to reflect on.

It's fairly detailed and all but it's somewhat interesting the only person Progo really goes into detail on is the player who was a townie and ended up eventually getting eliminated. The rest, at times, basically borders on a summary of what the players have been up to.

I've generally leaned town on you and I'm not exactly swaying in the completely opposite direction as such, but if you were to come under further suspicion or turn out to be mafia I think this is a really interesting post to reflect back on.

I'm also interested in why you were "taken aback" by how "intensely" Ahri was TR'ing Somnus? As a general rule Ahri has done everything intensely throughout the game so far and that would be no exception.

[MalcolmTucker]

Re my theory that we have one mafia in the bandwagon and one who strayed away from it, interesting that of the four living players who went for Andante, Ahri has, so far as I'm aware and can see, strongly TR'd two of them, while at certain points strongly suspecting the other two.

[MalcolmTucker]

@Progo what's your reasoning on me thus far? As far as I was aware you didn't particularly have a lot of suspicion on me, unless I've missed that?

[MalcolmTucker]

Would it help if everyone listed their pool of like 2-3 scum candidates? I feel like I have a general idea of where everyone is, so maybe it's not necessary, but there seems to be a general consensus regarding a couple of people.

{Cat, Malcolm, Korina} for me.

A bit odd that I'm here when my current solve is {Malcolm, Korina}.

can you expand on these?

---

But when you start using that style as a reason to say you're not mafia? Yeah, that's suspect.

Why though?

Do you disagree with the premise that town are less likely to care about attracting attention to themselves? And for the record, Ahri also put forth other reasons for townreading her, not just this one.

---

That actually sounds pretty reasonable to me.

What about it struck you as reasonable enough to make you unvote Malcolm?

Also yes, scum have a higher rate of replacing out b/c people tend to not like playing scum more. Ideally this shouldn't happen because it's against the rules I think, but it does. But in this case, I think it's pretty clear that Strange replaced out of emotion, not out of tactically avoiding the game.

I'm not really getting why Korina would be voting for me at this stage if we were a team. As a player they've got an alright chance of going out at the moment, but not to the point where it's absolute and it's worth putting direct heat onto a team member. Especially when I've not quite been fully cleared yet either, has its risks.

The mafia have managed to do alright out of the first two turns - there's no real consensus and we're - to a point - going on guesses and instinct at the moment. I'd be somewhat surprised if the two mafia teammates are piling a lot of pressure onto the other. If anything, players who've applied light pressure to each other without ever going all-in seem like our best bet for me. Especially with Ahri who has flipped on players constantly throughout the game, and who has now decided to conveniently take more of a backseat at an incredibly opportune moment.

[MalcolmTucker]

tfw game is active and i feel less motivated to post

is it weird that
SM was the most anti-town player possible and I tr'ed them for it
but Cape revived the entire game and I'm not completely ready to tr them for it

xd

anyways I'll vote with Somnus and Cape / CSF, I'd rather not lim cape or csf today just because they're probably the two strongest players left

I genuinely don't have a strong position on anything anymore
also multigaming heavily so I'll defer to your opinions unless I read something I heavily dislike

If you do come back to be town then this is kinda poor gameplay and isn't helping us at all. It's likely that one of the stronger players we're trusting at the moment could turn out to be mafia because we've not caught one yet and quite frankly we don't look like we're decisively going to in this round. It'd be better if town players were at least making an effort to try and deduce who is mafia, especially if their reason for not bothering at all is simply because they've lost interest and are focusing on another game.

I still expect and think this is probably a feint and your inactivity is a useful way to get any remaining heat to die off but if not it really isn't helping our case.

[MalcolmTucker]

@Progo what's your reasoning on me thus far? As far as I was aware you didn't particularly have a lot of suspicion on me, unless I've missed that?

As I've explained in #1132, I narrow it down to you, Cat and Korina because I townread Ahri, Cape and Somnus over you three.

You didn't give much reason to SR you, but you also didn't give me much reason to TR you.

But I'm interested specifically here on what's making you prop for me in the vote as opposed to CSF or Korina. Not even in a defensive way - just intrigued what we're lacking in terms of a TR that the others have.

In your initial reading of CSF, you seemed to suspect them to a degree because they'd relentlessly mistrusted you for a time. You didn't really have any thoughts on me or Korina at all. What's changed there?

[MalcolmTucker]

Reading back through the start and finding it really interesting how LQ was one of the first players to properly heap some pressure on Andante. Evidently it gave some mafia players some cover to join that bandwagon a bit without looking suspicious because a strong townie also suspected Andante. Obviously there was plenty of movement after that but Andante never quite recovered and was always regarded as one of the main suspects from thereon forward as a result.

I'm intrigued in the extent to which Somnus was being TR'd early on too. Again a good player operating with lots of logic and detail but that's absolutely something you'd expect from a competent mafia player too. I find it interesting that in Somnus' detailed analysis early on he manages to point out plenty of details which could make Ahri seem suspicious without leaning in too hard on that. As far as I'm aware since then Somnus has started TR'ing Ahri to a greater extent...but he expected more paper game content from Ahri in her posts. If anything I'd argue she's gone the other way, there was at least some posts analysing others early on which feel like they've faded away a bit now, especially in light of recent posts. An Ahri/Somnus team where Somnus has told Ahri to lie low while he's not going to be around as much strikes me as perfectly plausible.

With the Progo/Andante stuff, it's interesting that Progo got back on said bandwagon after his initial early vote for Andante which he quickly withdrew. I feel like a mafia would potentially be kinda wary to jump back on said bandwagon since they'd potentially look suspicious. But by the same token you could read it as an inexperienced mafia who initially jumped on Andante, panicked the moment they got a response from her, before then reversing course once the town as a whole was leaning that way.

[MalcolmTucker]

Also - re how to vote this round, I'm kinda unsure.

Naturally I still suspect Ahri and I'll likely cast a vote in that direction. But given my theory we've got one mafia on the bandwagon, I do wonder if there's a bit of a big risk of eliminating someone who's voted for a live player that could be mafia. While there will be players on the Andante bandwagon who suspected her like LQ, there's also likely mafia there, and thus far the four living players who opted for her are four players who have all directly got rid of a fellow townie.

But the issue then is...who to go for? I suspect Somnus a bit based on my above post but he's been a key player so far and I don't think I'd be willing to risk losing him at this point. CSF is an option I guess...her and Ahri have been mostly friendly, but then same can be said for Somnus and Ahri. Possible Ahri just went all-in early on in trying to TR a mafia partner when the game was quiet. It's really interesting how a few select posts early on informed so much of what came after. Which is why I don't buy comments that activity in this particular game has been a bad or risky approach for mafia players.

Other options are Korina and Progo. Both strike me as unlikely to be teammates of Ahri due to past conflicts.

[MalcolmTucker]

I can buy your claim, didn't suspect you too strongly compared to some thus far.

Progo's vote change is weird, yeah, literally all I had to do was politely ask! It very much hints at someone going through the motions and just deciding to off whichever candidate will attract the least attention without having to particularly justify his reads. Saying he TR's some of the others could be less a genuine read and more to at least give the indication he's thinking something. It'd be odd, odd mafia play but again like Ahri he has previous for inconsistent and at times erratic play. And it's interesting that he can very quickly swing when even the lightest pressure is applied, as if he's worried about creating any lasting beef with someone active who might reverse some of that pressure.

[MalcolmTucker]

@Korina did you have any other insights/reads shared by you/LQ that you'd only shared as a team but which could be useful?

[MalcolmTucker]

I'm somewhat confused either way here and having to think this one out.

I don't think it makes particular sense for mafia to claim Mason at this point in the game. Korina was in some danger but not down and out. Could have potentially clawed it back.

By the same token not sure CSF counterclaiming makes all that much sense either...again if you've got a solid mafia team then you can potentially afford to have Korina as a confirmed townie and work again from there. CSF could easily flip the bandwagon onto me and convince Progo to do the same from there too.

Genuinely dunno here, a bit stumped.

[MalcolmTucker]

This is a newbie game. Who knows what these newbies will believe?

So why wouldn't you try it?

There's some newbies here but for the most part some of us seem to have a decent amount of experience in playing the game. I don't think we're necessarily a completely easy con - I'd have gone with Korina without a counter-claim obviously but am willing to consider both sides now. I'm still to be convinced the mafia reveal makes sense from either of you which is the most confusing aspect.

[MalcolmTucker]

Although why Malcolm is not crossvoting Korina is a little bit beyond me. I will think some more.

I'm not voting Korina because I'm very much a townie and I've suspected Ahri the whole time. Although if you are mafia that could change.

[MalcolmTucker]

You're a good player. Don't kid the newbies. Why would I prolong the day if I'm scum?

I was going to say you could still make a bit of a fightback, but looking at the numbers it was basically Somnus to go for you and the game was over. Panciking and revealing mason kinda makes sense to me in that context, I think? What I don't get is the logic of a CSF counterclaim here, not as if they were guaranteed elimination if they're mafia. Could have still tried to flip suspicion onto me or Progo.

[MalcolmTucker]

Also, I don't think Korina should leave the PoE any time soon.

Me saying I don’t like a post does not mean I am pushing them. If I wanted to push Progo, I’d vote him. Not liking a post does not mean I think someone is scum. I do not like your 743, but that doesn’t make me thing you’re any less town.

Okay, why comment on it then?

I'm town. get yer votes off me!

I mean, I don't see why you are so obviously Townie. We can't just take your word on it.

I do think Progo looks really bad here if you flip Town, so I'd probably push them D2 if you flip Town.

Korina also looks Sus with the way they are approaching this game which seems to be to not really give much in the way of spicy takes. They are SRing Ahri IIRC, which, Ahri was seriously considered Scummy by a few people (like me) so there's reason to push there.

IDK what SM is doing anymore. They seem to not really have many takes at all.

Ahri is weird and IDK how I feel about them but their effort seems a bit Townie to me (like I mentioned before).

And Malcolm has also pushed Ahri, which I kinda get on one level because Ahri is very chaotic and that seems to be a kind of playstyle clash with Malcolm, but I guess I don't get how Malcolm goes from having everyone as Null to being so sure Ahri is Scum.

That leaves Cat and Somnus who I think are both obviously Town.

Here's a sample of LQ's posts on Korina. I get the mason wants to distance themselves from their teammate a little bit to avoid making things easy for the mafia, but this does strike me as fairly extreme given Korina was in a position where a TR would have helped them. LQ had given out a fair few TR's and was already clearly one of the most viable candidates for elimination.

[MalcolmTucker]

The reason why Korina would lie and fakeclaim Mason here is because scum did not know who the second Mason was.

They wanted me to reveal myself so they can kill me.

To be fair the mason role would basically be irrelevant once the first is killed, would it not? At that point you're basically a standard townie with a bit of knowledge from beforehand having worked closely with a fellow townie. The idea of a mason coming forward had already been discussed. Progo floated it.

Korina's claim very much works either as a desperate mafia throwing a spanner into the works for some fun, or desperate townie wanting to avoid elimination. But the former is still flimsy...and the only thing that's tilting me towards it is the fact your claim doesn't feel like it makes all that much sense.

[MalcolmTucker]

If CSF is mafia as well I'm not absolutely sure Somnus would have to be her partner. I think it's a good possibility and I'm increasingly leaning towards Somnus as a savvy mafia player, but under those circumstances Cape could be a solid candidate for a clever teammate who's done well at keeping themselves in the dark. Meta replacement factors in this game massively complicating things for me from a town POV.

[MalcolmTucker]

Yeah but the Mason is basically confirmed town. Scum definitely don't want a confirmable townie lying around.

I say "basically" confirmed town, because both me and Korina are claiming it.

Somewhat fair point, although I've seen mafia successfully manage to string along a townie before if a townie has had a consistently wrong take. Not always as simple as it seems. From a mafia POV do you reckon it'd be possible Korina's partner isn't around at the moment and they've just gone all in with the hope it'd work?

I was very 50/50 but LQ's posts about Korina are very much starting to tip me in the other direction now, far too strong for teammates when he could've given an easy and mostly unnoticeable TR or just left off interacting completely.

[MalcolmTucker]

Have to admit I'd not really suspected Korina for much of the game but once I found those old posts of them being accused by LQ seemed more obvious they were lying.

Unsure where to stand now. Aware I likely look suspicious but I was genuinely curious as to who was telling the truth and who was lying between the two, hence why I dug back for some additional evidence.

Re PAD's post on the first page then, do we reckon there's a decent chance it may actually be Cape after all? Considering how lost we seemed on day one, it'd almost make sense if we were basically scrambling around as townies accusing each other while mafia players were saying/doing very little.

[MalcolmTucker]

Should add, I've suspected Ahri the whole game but it seems incredibly unlikely she'd have been in a team with Korina, although as noted above that would be genuinely hilarious.

If you're going on my theory that we have one mafia who went on first vote bandwagon and another who stayed off, that'd leave Korina in a team with either myself or Cape. It's not me, although again I'd understand why I'd come under suspicion as a result. Would be happy if anyone wants to give me a proper cross-examination re any previous posts that could either link me to Korina or distance me from them.

[MalcolmTucker]

i know i’m town
i think progo is town via claim
i think you’re town via play
i think somnus is town via play
i think ahri is town via play

leaving just malcolm and caps

You know Progo and Ahri made the same BV claim right?

Yes, but I think Progo’s claim was towniwr, and Ahri’s was not

I guess I sort of agree there, at least marginally

I was wrong; I didn't actually play with you, it was Stack the Deck, which I modded under ofrhz. I believe it was the first game you played as Vex, so I think your explanation for how you wanted to tryhard as town under that account is believable. That's why I created this account after all

and ok, we can talk more about your PoE when you're sober. I'm basically interested in what you think is lacking from Cape's game that is present in the players in your townpool.

stack the deck with ofrhz was the first game i played under vv.
and i'm cool to talk poe now, because i have notes that i'm ~mostly~ going off of, but drunk!me tends to say things without really thinking it through, so take whatever i say with a grain of salt for if i really mean and think that, or if it's just me talking without thinking about what it means.


i think cape is scum solely because i think everyone else in the game is townier than sm was. cape is pretty much towning it up, but like, i don't care enough to see if this is cape's first game or not, and go through all that motion, but like, i'm really not wanting to look at the idea of somemone's deepwolfing atm

Brief bit of interaction here between Cape/Korina. Notably Korina hints they suspect Cape but never really followed through on it that strongly afterwards.

[MalcolmTucker]

VOTE: ProgoWoshua

go next

What's with the certainty on Progo? Possible candidate but not nailed down.

[MalcolmTucker]

VOTE: ProgoWoshua

go next

Why me?

bc ur maf

and im in too many games so this one needs to finish so I can play more

I know you've more or less checked out of this game, unfortunately, but I'm hoping you can at least provide details on your stance here.

Getting the impression Ahri has basically stopped playing and doesn't have a proper stance, just picking Progo because why not. Complicates things for the town a bit.

[MalcolmTucker]

Ok. For starters...can people stop proposing these ridiculous 1v1 gladiator battles? This is a team game. If I agreed to this nonsense, which I don't, you'd easily get my vote right now, Progo, just based on today.

Ahri has been convinced you scum-slipped on Day One. I'm not, but it's something that has loomed over your head since post 436. Lickety planned on tunneling you hard Day 2 and he ends up dead Night One. Ok, there's a lot of reasons he could have been the night kill though. They certainly don't all involve you. He also wanted to push hard on Malcolm and Korina after you.

I hate that Ahri has basically given up on this game since early in Day 2. I really wish I read her as scum because it would be a pretty easy vote on Day 3. Unless she set up a bussing situation with Korina starting late Day 1 and then decided to coast to a quiet victory the rest of the way, I don't think she's scum. If we see a Day 4 and she and I are both somehow still around, I'll reassess my stance here, as I've done at the start of both Day 2 and Day 3.

With that said...no one should EVER read someone voting for themselves and then open-claiming mafia as pro-town. And then you changed your mind roughly an hour later (regret for throwing the game?). I hated when Ahri self-voted on Day 1 and thought it was a bad play, but I at least understood the situation she was setting up. I disagreed with it, and still do, but I at least understood her reasoning. Anyone who sees that play that you made here and says, "Wow! Such town!" will look arguably scummier than you.

This isn't personal. I like you as a person and you seem like a good dude. I don't know how you survive Day 3 with those posts though. And I say that for a few reasons. We went into Day 3 with two shots to lim the remaining scum. Despite not having any power roles left, that's not too bad. Let's say you somehow now survive Day 3 and we do in fact end up in a Day 4. Out of myself, Malcolm, Ahri, and Cape, 2 of those 4 are going to be in a vote with you still around and the insanity/open-mafia claim you just did is going to weigh in on the decision, rather than looking at everything else.

Here's the Outcomes I see:

1. If you're scum and you did this, I feel bad for Korina, and it's going to feel somewhat hollow if this is how we win. I'd still take it, but it'll feel kind of cheap.

2. You're town, and you go into a 2:1 on Day 4 (what mafia in their right mind is going to night kill you now?) with what you just did weighing heavily on the decision and potentially costing town the game.

3. You're scum and somehow coast to an easy scum victory now because people were insane enough to read what you pulled here and go, "Wow! What a townie move! Definitely not scum!". This one seems the least likely, as I doubt anyone is giving you townie points for any of this.

4. You're town and get voted off Day 3 for putting yourself at E-1 and open-claiming mafia after someone put a single vote on you with their entire argument literally being, "bc ur maf".


All four scenarios suck, with the first one sucking the least. In addition to all of that, with this post:

"I just picked one at random. But if you insists" (1145), I'd be concerned with you casting the game-deciding vote if we see a Day 4.

If you're scum, Korina is likely going to have a bone to pick with you post-game. If you're town and you helped give the game to scum by doing this, myself and 5 other people are going to have a bone to pick with you post-game. Even if you somehow flip town, I can't say I would have blamed Cape for quick-hammering you there. Same goes to Malcolm if he had been around during that. If ever there was a reason to quick-hammer someone, I'd say open-claiming mafia is right up there near the top of the list.

Again, you seem like a good dude and regardless of your alignment, I hope this isn't you basically quitting the game and mafia in general and then having regrets shortly thereafter. But to me, for all of the reasons I just outlined, I don't see how you can survive Day 3 here.

I'd like Ahri, Cape, and Malcolm to weigh in before I vote.

I'm largely in a similar boat to you here. I suspected Ahri for this early on - using erratic and odd plays which would ideally implicate you as a player, but which end up convincing the town you're actually one of them because it's such an odd approach to go on.

But yes, it's really difficult. Aside from me and you, we've got one player voting for themselves here, one player who's basically clocked out which is just incredibly poor form if you're going to commit to a game, and another player who is a replacement for someone else...if the latter is mafia, another player basically backed out over a turn into a game when they were under a bit of heat.

Anyway, logically, I'm still thinking Cape based on my theory we had one mafia on bandwagon in turn one and one person off it. I reckon SM joined with me because they saw Ahri as a reasonable target (in the way I did as a townie).

Considering we're not exactly convinced we've won so far, it'd make sense if we've got a fairly strong player still remaining at this point. When Cape entered the game they made a fair few good posts and managed to throw a lot of suspicion onto town players like CSF, who was of course eventually drawn out as mafia. Cape briefly put a bit of suspicion on Korina but never particularly sustained it.

This isn't in a bad way to Cape either...if anything it's a compliment, managed to conceal their position quite well given when they came into the game, and given the mess they've had to mop up since in certain regards with original mafia choices dropping out.

[MalcolmTucker]

If I were to put my suspicions in order, I'd go:

1. Cape
2. Progo
3. Somnus
4. Ahri

I dunno, reading through the game I can't just see an Ahri/Korina team. I've suspected Ahri throughout but in retrospect it increasingly seems like she was just erratic early on and can't be bothered playing now.

Progo's posts on the last page were incredibly suspect but my gut has said they're townie for a lot of the game so far. I'd have also said it'd have been unlikely for a Progo/Korina team to both go for Ahri at certain points, but then SM and Korina both went for Ahri. Hard to read.

[MalcolmTucker]

I wanted to make sure it wasn't someone else like Somnus, or Ahri.

I'm finding this post from Korina really interesting but extremely risky and odd. Korina was outed mafia by this point. It's one of the few posts we have in the game we have from someone who was confirmed mafia while still commenting.

What do we reckon Korina stands to gain from naming Ahri and Somnus specifically as other mason targets? Outright naming your teammate as someone you were suspecting for mason seems like an incredibly ballsy move if someone makes a connection or two between you. But by the same token, being honest and naming people you actually thought were masons vastly reduces the possible mafia pool! Especially when you've reached the endgame and there's only a few players left.

Do we think Korina was being genuine here, or aiming for a misdirect? It's an interesting post.

[MalcolmTucker]

At this point I doubt Ahri is mafia. Don't see why it has to be one or the other.

[MalcolmTucker]

It seems like we may have a consensus on Progo potentially? Going by own logic re vote 1 I'm still thinking it's Cape now and we've ended up in this bizarre position where we had two replacement mafia.

VOTE: VOTE: Cape90

[MalcolmTucker]

I'm not 100% on Cape but most people seem to have a consensus and I doubt it was Korina with Ahri or Progo at this point. Happy to speed the game up a bit and go on what I reckon.

[MalcolmTucker]

UNVOTE: ProgoWoshua

who's mafia, Progo?

UNVOTE: Ahri

Malcolm and Cape are my two picks.

I won't be back on until much later this evening/tonight, but you do realize that this completely destroys the entire narrative you've set up over the last two days, correct? It also contradicts the assertion you've had for most of the game that one of the three people who had votes on you on Day 1 had to be mafia (2 of them are dead). That second point, I can easily explain away as a read naturally changing. That happens. Some of mine have as well over the course of the game. The first point though, based not just exclusively on the timing, just looks opportunistic, as Lickety said at the end of Day 1.

Yes this is bizarre. Ahri has made like two posts and now he's reneged completely? Not getting the logic here.

[MalcolmTucker]

https://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?ti ... _All_Liars

Eliminate (Lim) All Liars is a longstanding mantra in the mafiascum.net community. Quite simply, most Townies have no reason to lie about their actions, motivations, or roles. Many newish Townies will attempt to lie in attempts to gambit, and fail miserably by hurting the Town in the process.

These lies can be indistinguishable from deliberate scum gambits, and leaving them unpunished reinforces the behavior as a viable option for scum.

For example, Vanilla Townies who try to roleclaim Doctor in an attempt to draw the Mafia's Night-kill tend to cause the real Doctor to counterclaim them, thus definitely causing the Mafia to target them. In addition to this, scum have been known to deliberately fakeclaim Doctor with the express purpose of drawing a counterclaim for this reason. The elimination of the Vanilla Townie is then justified.

Generally, gambits are not successful. If they were, they would probably be on this wiki or otherwise public knowledge. Thus, rather than wind up on the receiving end of Eliminate All Liars, it is best not to try to gambit unless you fully understand the implications of your actions. This comes primarily with experience.

Eliminate All Liars is also why scum should not wantonly gamble with the Town's patience as well.

Meh. I dunno if I fully endorse this school of thinking. I think it is situational

I think it can certainly have its uses but it's arguably riskier towards the endgame. We've essentially got two shots at finding mafia: if it's not Progo there's a big risk the town loses.

I dunno, it's a tough one. I don't think you've done all that much that makes you seem particularly mafia, just on my original Day 1 vote theory it's a lot more likely to be you, and your brief interactions with Korina indicate you could be a team.

The other outside-the-box option is that Somnus has played an absolute blinder. But I get the impression they'd be a fairly cautious mafia player - can't see them advising Korina to claim mason. Potentially better to fight it out and hope they'd escape.

I'd be happy to potentially switch to Progo this turn though if it's a consensus, and then advocate for you being next to go if it's not immediate game over. Not sure I'd want potentially both you gone now and Somnus in the night if the mafia were to take a pop given Ahri clearly doesn't care about the game anymore and potentially wouldn't be swayed by me on a final turn.

[MalcolmTucker]

What are you thinking re your vote Cape? Quite split at the moment...like I said, could be tempted back onto Progo this turn and eliminate you if that doesn't work for us.

[MalcolmTucker]

Increasingly agreeing with the above from Somnus, would be happy to eliminate Progo at this point. I'm not particularly sure what I've even done to particularly indicate leaning mafia other than accuse a couple of people here.

[MalcolmTucker]

VOTE: Progo

[MalcolmTucker]

I've outlined my reasons for changing my vote from you to Progo quite clearly, I reckon there's a better chance you'll be mafia but it seems unlikely you'll be eliminated this turn. Progo strikes me as the next best option at this point and as Somnus has outlined above some posts have been incredibly suspect. If we eliminate Progo and the game isn't over I'd absolutely be on you next unless we get any good evidence it's Somnus or Ahri somehow.

[MalcolmTucker]

Fair enough, seems like the consensus is increasingly swinging toward me.

Won't be up much later so perhaps mounting a final defence here, probably primarily to Somnus who seems fairly split down the middle.

I made some similar claims and had some similar viewpoints to Korina to a degree that wouldn't have been particularly sensible for two players in the same team.

When it became clear Korina was increasingly on the way out I could've jumped on said bandwagon to boost my own standing with the townies but I didn't...and of course nor did I attempt to mount a defence for them either.

Progo is suspicious for reasons everyone is well-aware of by now, so no need to elaborate on that one. Could (again) just be erratic townie behaviour but likewise not to be lightly ignored at this point in the game.

Cape makes the most sense to me but I'd be happy to wait until the next turn before making a decisive call if Progo still ends up being consensus. He briefly prodded Korina upon entry to create distance between them but never particularly followed it up. Went quite heavily on CSF right away after joining the game before CSF was later drawn into being forced to reveal their role as a mason.

Also had a flurry of activity and lots of rational posts/analysis early on after entering the game to try and get rid of a lot of the suspicion which had been heaped on SM, but been a bit quieter at times since then, perhaps since this turn had been going in a direction which largely suited him.

Likewise I stil don't reckon both mafia were on day one bandwagon for Andante before Cape joined, but aware that is something which could equally apply to myself.

[MalcolmTucker]

Ah wait, shit, just seen, that's us hit the three votes. Ah well, pleasure playing guys.

[MalcolmTucker]

Well played to Somnus.

[MalcolmTucker]

And Korina too, of course, did their bit before going out in a blaze of glory.

[MalcolmTucker]

Reading through the mafia thread, one of the reasons I was wary of suspecting Somnus was Korina's mason claim felt kinda rash to me at the time. I had a point in retrospect since it took a while until Somnus was keen on it. But Korina called at the right time and did well to draw out CSF.

[MalcolmTucker]

@Somnus Yeah your decision to jump onto Progo for that third elimination was a masterstroke in the end, didn't seem illogical for you to avoid voting for me, but also gave you plausible coverage when I came back as a townie in the end. Was unsure at that point if you were mafia or not, but knew that if you were you basically had the win wrapped up.