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[Tapiocaphobe]

hello everyone i'll get to reading today

[Tapiocaphobe]

Fantastic please do! (not trying to be rude just making sure I am not prodded harumph)

i'm almost caught up if you want to talk about anything

[Tapiocaphobe]

alright hello everyone i'm caught up

i think i wanna iso some people but just having read through the thread right now it's definitely between catboi/bbt/ws but i'm not super sure who

the way catboi has handled day 2 and 3 are just so scummy to me but there's a couple things bugging me:
1. i agree with kiri on 688 that scum!catboi coaches sterling. i just don't really see an explanation otherwise; catboi was active, sterling should've known about the PT and I have to imagine they looked so unless they just ignored catboi i'm like having a hard time convincing myself that catboi is scum there. also catboi seems to have been an influence on starting the sterling BW
2. catboi hard pushed my slot today, so i'm not sure what scum!catboi's wincon is on day 4 when I flip town, i feel like catboi just gets voted there

130 is such a bad post that i'm honestly a bit surprised faust got voted instead of fennec's slot D2, but i think generally WS has been pretty pro-town; i'll take another look at this
CJ was slightly scummy I think, BBT's slot I mostly just suspect off POE

maestro is definitely just town at this point

wrt mass claim I don't really see a reason why we shouldn't do it, scum should already know the exact setup and if there's a PR it should theoretically force mafia NK on them; i assume if there was a PR/townie with good info they'd have claimed by now

i think in the process of making this post i've talked myself out of catboi being scum so UNVOTE:

[Tapiocaphobe]

the way catboi has handled day 2 and 3 are just so scummy to me

to be specific here's what I latched on to:
1. faust argues catboi is scum in 543
2. faust and catboi go back and forth over day 2
3. faust is limmed and flips town, kiri is NKed
4. day 3 starts, catboi mentions they reread and they lay out their thoughts, coming to the conclusion that my slot is the likeliest scum

the main issue I have with this is that it feels to me like catboi comes in at the start of day 3 trying to control the conversation, which is exactly what they need to do at this point in order to win as scum
i think after 543 scum!catboi has to push faust, as catboi somewhat mentions in 745 it generally looks somewhat scummy to defend town with bad reasoning and imo it looks even worse in this case when there are multiple obvious townies pushing for faust's lim

while 718 may be true I think it regardless is a good excuse for scum!catboi to change their reads from d2 and hard push a slot today
the next few posts are the important ones, kiri had imo been controlling a lot of the conversation in d2 and with her gone, catboi is able to come in and focus the topic of today on my slot rather than necessarily on what happened yesterday, which I think is beneficial to scum!catboi; suspicion, i think, naturally falls on catboi for their conduct in d2 and by making these posts so quickly after d3 scum!catboi is able to get ahead of some of that

again i still have some major qualms about reading catboi's slot as scum but this is my thought process, which is why i'm currently conflicted on the slot

[Tapiocaphobe]

finally this doesn't really have any relation to anything but I really wish kiri had talked more about her 'faust flips town' reads lol

[Tapiocaphobe]

wait i thought about it mass claiming is bad actually

[Tapiocaphobe]

okay I ISO'd WS, there's a lot of fluff but the last dozen-ish posts imo denote town thinking and there's a passivity in his tone over the past couple of days that is probably null but I would expect to see more from town in this gamestate

[Tapiocaphobe]

final post for now, quickly ISO'd BBT and i don't really know what to add, pointing out 130 is alright but there's just... so little

[Tapiocaphobe]

the way catboi has handled day 2 and 3 are just so scummy to me

to be specific here's what I latched on to:
1. faust argues catboi is scum in 543
2. faust and catboi go back and forth over day 2
3. faust is limmed and flips town, kiri is NKed
4. day 3 starts, catboi mentions they reread and they lay out their thoughts, coming to the conclusion that my slot is the likeliest scum

the main issue I have with this is that it feels to me like catboi comes in at the start of day 3 trying to control the conversation, which is exactly what they need to do at this point in order to win as scum
i think after 543 scum!catboi has to push faust, as catboi somewhat mentions in 745 it generally looks somewhat scummy to defend town with bad reasoning and imo it looks even worse in this case when there are multiple obvious townies pushing for faust's lim

while 718 may be true I think it regardless is a good excuse for scum!catboi to change their reads from d2 and hard push a slot today
the next few posts are the important ones, kiri had imo been controlling a lot of the conversation in d2 and with her gone, catboi is able to come in and focus the topic of today on my slot rather than necessarily on what happened yesterday, which I think is beneficial to scum!catboi; suspicion, i think, naturally falls on catboi for their conduct in d2 and by making these posts so quickly after d3 scum!catboi is able to get ahead of some of that

again i still have some major qualms about reading catboi's slot as scum but this is my thought process, which is why i'm currently conflicted on the slot

I think what you've laid out here is a plausible explanation for why my play

could

make sense as scum but the thinking is flawed. The problem is it comes

only

looking at whether my play makes sense as being from scum and not whether it can come from town, and judge which is more likely. I think if you try to approach games from the angle of "whose play makes sense as scum" you're going to end up with a lot of false positives. It's very easy to convince yourself someone's play

could

make sense as scum - nothing is ever really truly certain that way in games, and everything can seem possible, even the most far-out scenario. And looking at things from that perspective means more often than not you'll convince yourself of an incorrect case.

So wht I have to ask is, why does my opening today look like an attempt to "control the narrative" as scum, rather than being analysis from a town POV?

you know I thought about this post and I hate to admit it but I think you're right
i need to sleep on this game, i'll take another look tomorrow

[Tapiocaphobe]

@WS what made you lean towards CJ as possible scum yesterday?

also sorry to hear that happened

[Tapiocaphobe]

@BBT do you have any other reasons to suspect WS's slot beyond 130?

[Tapiocaphobe]

i can't find a compelling reason in his iso to mark him as scum rather than confused townie
he had bad reads d1 but so did faust

[Tapiocaphobe]

i have

[Tapiocaphobe]

like I can see the point you're making I just don't really agree strongly enough to scumread fennec's posts

[Tapiocaphobe]

Can you pick out a single Fennec post that looks town?

I admit, I haven't looked at WS in any proper detail

but it really doesn't feel like I need to.

why not?

[Tapiocaphobe]

i think i've found scum

i can feel it deep within my bones

VOTE: BlueBloodedToffee E-1 I believe

reread catboi's D1 earlier and I think their interactions with sterling are far more likely to come from a town POV, particularly 99

[Tapiocaphobe]

voting you

[Tapiocaphobe]

Yeah, I mean, it seems obvious that WS is scum?

I don't know why this is taking so long.

i don't understand the motivation behind this post

[Tapiocaphobe]

VOTE: Faustiv

I'll respond to stuff in postgame that feels relevant but kind of disappointed in myself this game, I wanted to set an example and I don't really think I did well in that regard.

don't worry I'm disappointed in myself too

[Tapiocaphobe]

yeah fair enough. i just feel like if i read a bit more i could've figured it out yesterday.

fmpov its probably just ws, fennec's posts were bad and maybe i'm biased but i hate 861

i don't feel great about catboi but i don't think i can justify them as scum

[Tapiocaphobe]

*sigh*


I really, really, really hate being in F3.

yeah

[Tapiocaphobe]

All fluff aside, I think Tapiocaphobe is scum. I'd love to play with you again, whether I'm right or wrong. We need (as a forum) to retain some of you guys! Please stay around!

i know you are but what am i

i love playing here, it's a lot of fun

Spoiler:

my youngest just got in a wreck with his girlfriend. It sounds like they're both OK. I don't know who's car they were driving. When it rains, it pours!

Sad sad fluff.

that's horrible, i wish you all the best

[Tapiocaphobe]

its definitely ws now

I've been going over Day 1 and

if

catboi's play was scum theater, it was very convincing.

Tapiocaphobe had a case on catboi in 818 with catboi's rebuttal in 825.

All three of us have been 100% wrong on our limms. This is my first lim-lo in forum Mafia in about a decade. I'm not sure what to do. I know I'm Town, but I've been wrong every lim this game.

I think I know who I'm leaning towards, but the Day's still early.

angling towards the possibility of me SRing catboi to keep options open

It looks like it's gonna come down to catboi. Right or wrong I just don't see me voting for them.

Tapiocaphobe seems to have been WKing and setting up who made it into lim-lo Today.

@ Tapiocaphobe If you're Town, we both got it wrong again

immediately retracts and says I'm scum after I say its probably him

My gut feeling is that Tapiocaphobe kept me around hoping to convince me to vote you. My tinfoil.

weird assertion that doesn't really hold up to any scrutiny, i think the idea behind this post is to imply he's town for being alive

[Tapiocaphobe]

its definitely ws now

I've been going over Day 1 and

if

catboi's play was scum theater, it was very convincing.

Tapiocaphobe had a case on catboi in 818 with catboi's rebuttal in 825.

All three of us have been 100% wrong on our limms. This is my first lim-lo in forum Mafia in about a decade. I'm not sure what to do. I know I'm Town, but I've been wrong every lim this game.

I think I know who I'm leaning towards, but the Day's still early.

angling towards the possibility of me SRing catboi to keep options open

It looks like it's gonna come down to catboi. Right or wrong I just don't see me voting for them.

Tapiocaphobe seems to have been WKing and setting up who made it into lim-lo Today.

@ Tapiocaphobe If you're Town, we both got it wrong again

immediately retracts and says I'm scum after I say its probably him

My gut feeling is that Tapiocaphobe kept me around hoping to convince me to vote you. My tinfoil.

weird assertion that doesn't really hold up to any scrutiny, i think the idea behind this post is to imply he's town for being alive

I feel like your interpretation of those first two posts is reaching here, I don't really see that stuff as damning, I think he made his intentions clear.

I also, as a rule, don't put much weight on posts actually made during F3 because my belief is the most important evidence is on the prior days. This might be a problem given both of you replaced players who were not especially high volume but I'll try regardless.

i think it tracks but obviously i'm biased

thats what i'd hope for

[Tapiocaphobe]

still here if anyone wants to talk, still think it's ws

[Tapiocaphobe]

understandable

[Tapiocaphobe]

VOTE: Wayward Son

[Tapiocaphobe]

rip gg

[Tapiocaphobe]

were you scum catboi

[Tapiocaphobe]

i suppose we shall see

[Tapiocaphobe]

GG everyone, wp sterling and catboi! i was a little disappointed with how I played d3 but this game was fun to replace into and I definitely learned a lot