Newbie 2107 | Random Music | Postgame

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Hy folks. To get thing started,

VOTE: Redados

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2) I have two votes on me

I'm sure this

probably

doesn't mean anything at this point, but it may be worth of some consideration, especially since the second vote came in quite quickly after mine. I'm still not necessarily finding Hyrule particularly sus thou, perhaps just a little

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HH’s vote was for comedic effect and I find that post to be less concerning than his other two posts.

What is of some concern is that he does appear to incite discussion without participating in it any. Now, he clearly is not willing to straight up lurk, and is instead essentially empty posting presumably to seem active (a latere, that's true of Baron too). His vote is clearly comedic, but I'm not convinced that he didn't just take the occasion to join a wagon with plausible deniability.

As I said, he still is not confirmedly scum in my mind, but I am reading some anti-town vibes from him. Other than that, I don't have yet formed any strong readings, but Redados and CCGeek I read town (CCGeek slightly more, but that's probably just personal feel), Baron slightly anti-town, and the other mostly null. Thou I'd also like to take note of the fact that Elmo did post, but to say nothing and not even submitted a random vote

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Ego

To that extent, and sorry if I'm being really oblivious here, what does this (ego) even mean? I'm sure it's obvious, but I'm frankly not much into forum culture

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That means that if town can get a good idea of each person sooner, they can narrow down the outliers, so it would be in the best interest of each townie to talk as much as possible. However, if scum comes to the same conclusion, they will emulate this behaviour, and it may be seen as scummy, which could lead the townies to try to be less forward.

I'm not sure that follows. If a behaviour is clearly advantageous to town, then town should engage in it even if it is frequently faked by scum. In fact I'd argue that it being faked should benefit the town, which in the specific case is likely since a talkative scum may possibly incur in some manner of lapsus.

I have refrained from referring to myself as town thus far, as instantly labelling myself as such when there is little reason to suspect otherwise is incredibly suspicious, but I did find such a label on myself necessary in order to explain my line of thinking.

Again, I don't see

why

it is so. If the argument flows, then it ought to flow regardless of the point of view of the arguer; which I'm not sure it does here, even if I don't disagree on the conclusion

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Anyhow, it is night in my current time zone, so goodnight and I'll be back in (probably) 8 to 9 hours

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2) A Sus Town

A town where an air of paranoia permeates throughout. This would most likely be later game, when town begins doubting itself. People start contradicting, votes may begin to make more sense with hindsight, and a larger narrative can be crafted. Patterns emerge. Town would be more suspicious of one another, and things may be overanalyzed. In this environment, subtlety is key. Be there, but don't do much. Talk without saying anything at all.

Just to be clear, are you suggesting here that town may wish not to force patterns to emerge? Because, at least as I see, town do actually want to make their behavior as transparent as possible in the vast majority of cases, after all there's no risk whatsoever of informing the mafia on the identity of the townsfolk since they already know.

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UNVOTE:

And I waddle my finger toward Hyrule, but not enough to warrant a vote yet.

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Little unsure why you are trying to test self voting? What could town ever utilise this for? Hmm

I'll show you what it's suppose to look like, here, glad I could help

VOTE: Baron Kirkholm Uttgart

@Baron there may not really be an actual reason, but perhaps you may want to comment on that? Specifically I don't see why you could not just select someone at random to do a test.

In any case, since your vote got counted all the same, now you may want to unvote

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And speaking of Spartan, he's been the MOST low-key person this game yet? The weird thing is no one except Baron (the other low-key person who also happens to be widely anti-townread) has really paid any attention to him. And then, Baron just... unvotes??? I do not like this development at all. Just to put some pressure on this slot, VOTE: Spartan

Oh, for whatever reason I completely missed this vote-unvote shenanigan while skimming, so thanks for pointing that out.

Anyway, I do want to elicit some manner of response from Spartan, so
VOTE: Spartan
Even if to me it's mostly null at this point

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I unvoted because I don’t want to put anything on anyone I have no real suspicion towards- which is seeming especially relevant after the double vote for Spartan. I wouldn’t say that double vote particularly incriminates anyone, but it seems far more weird than the votes Spartan and I had to each other that were essentially just conversational

You know, using the double (now triple) vote toward Spartan as a reasoning does strike me as particularly fishy, since you did unvote

before

any other vote to Spartan was cast (in post #84). And you're right, the reciprocal votes between you too were, at least seemingly, conversational, but I guess they're either really that or may perhaps be an early attempt at distancing

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UNVOTE:

Hope you get well soon

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Elmo, Spartan and Chazary are too hard to tell now. If I were to share my personal first instincts, Elmo I think could be the more likely to be scum of the three.

May I ask why Elmo specifically? As I understand he did not yet input pretty much anything, and for reasons other than voluntary lurking, so he should be entirely a mystery box at this point, no?

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I don’t agree with a few of the criticisms made of HH, and I think they have made some thoughtful contributions that are helpful to the town, but I am very much keeping a watch on them.

Well, as much you already have made quite clear. In fact, there is quite the back and forth of mutual agreement between you two:

Interesting- there’s so much depth to this that I’ve never thought of.
[...]

That's an intensely interesting view. I'd say I agree for the most part, [...]

I forgot to respond to this too- I think you’ve hit the nail on the head with the group recognising behavioural patterns. [...]

I forgot to respond to this too- I think you’ve hit the nail on the head with the group recognising behavioural patterns. [...]

Agreed

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put your vote somewhere where it does something

Why chazary though? I'd imagine the idea was to gather a reaction, but now that one was given I'm not so sure keeping the pressure on would really do any good. Are you actually reading him anti-town?

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Hellhound1 replaces Spartan117. Please welcome them!

Welcome in! Now, have you gathered some impression from the game so far (or well, from skimming it, I'd presume reading it all from cold may be a bit daunting)? I'm sure a mostly so far outside observer may have picked up something we missed

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But I also don’t want to risk causing a bandwagon by voting someone else. And I could always unvote but now that it’s tuesday I want to see what Elmo’s contribution is first.

Let's see then.

VOTE: Elmo

I'm causing a wagon for you, since I highly doubt a single spurious vote would really be enough to force anyone to react

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Did anyone else just see Chazary start a bandwagon on Elmo???????

I surely did, how unusual

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if it's a HH wagon we're building, I'll gladly join in. Information is our key priority rn, and near-elim pressure might be what we need to get a grasp on HH.

I'm actually not personally too surprised of such statement, even if it is quite in contrast with the oft cited previous reluctance to wagoning.
In fact, in the specific case of Hyrule, CCG does appear to have been quite suspicious for quite a long time, since page 2 in fact, here's some early samples for reference:

Hyrule: Every post is some form of filler, even after Redados tries to induce discussion. Neutral, slightly scummy.

However, HH definitely started becoming chattier. Some of his arguments do have merit, yes. But I don't have the time in hand rn to poke holes in his posts, will probably do that once I'm back in the evening.

But yes, in agreement with chazary, HH has been coming off as defensive. Not enough for me to convince myself he's voteworthy.
[...]
I still don't have unshakeable SRs, just suspicions, and part of that is due to the fact that I'm not really spotting any interaction that can point to scum pairs (yes I'm looking for this shit this early into d1). The closest thing I could find to 1-on-1 interactions are mine and redados' interactions on like page 1, Elmo's replies, and Baron and HH's interaction (most weird one to me being that in post #26).

And there does not appear to ever have been a change of mind on the subject. So, @CCGeek, for clarity, are you voting for Hyrule just to put pressure on or do you actually think that he's the most valid candidate for today's lim (which, btw, I wouldn't necessarily disagree on, as evidenced by the fact i still haven't retracted my finger)?

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I'm not moving my vote yet thou, as I really want to see what Elmo has to say

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And there does not appear to ever have been a change of mind on the subject. So, @CCGeek, for clarity, are you voting for Hyrule just to put pressure on or do you actually think that he's the most valid candidate for today's lim (which, btw, I wouldn't necessarily disagree on, as evidenced by the fact i still haven't retracted my finger)?

God, I should really not post while drunk. I would have sworn you voted for Hyrule, while you actually voted for Baron, so my bad, please disregard

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Thou you did clearly signal your willingness to hop to that wagon, so my point still mostly stands

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His [Hyrule's] comments, combined with little/no positive moves to scum hunt, make me feel that he is deflecting/not committing more than he is playing badly. He has shared thoughts on himself/theory, and nothing on other people. Lots of text, though.

The lots of text is what I'm finding interesting atm. In particular, how he did erupt with quite a lot of text after being initially accused of being too deflecting (see e.g.post 28, post 37, latter's mine), and subsequently reverted to being mostly quiet -- unless I lost something, he didn't post since post #120, on page 5 (and that was mostly theory fluff, but that's not the main point here). This seems to me a rather interesting change in behaviour; though before over-speculating I'd like to hear directly from the horse's mouth, to see his reasons for that

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Yesterday was a busy day, so I wasn't able to post then. There's not really anything I can do to convince you of this truth, but I enjoy posting a lot.

No need convincing, I do not disbelieve you. I can't be sure that's not a lie, but fair

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Is @Elmo still V/LA?

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Just wanted to Unvote from my earlier joke vote. I'll do a little more thinking before I cast it again. I'm not really sure if there are many reasons to vote Spartan right now, but his silence does raise some concern.

Is this someone who is trying to distance themselves from a wagon but not too much to avoid suspicion?

Now that I think about it, that is a somewhat strange statement to make. By that point, the wagon had only 2 votes on Elmo, and adding another wouldn't have seemed in any way suspicious; so if Spartan was town I don't really see why a mafioso would want to purposely distance himself from that wagon. But Spartan's slot is the same as Hellhound's, so surely he must have made that statement with the assumption that Spartan was in fact town, which for the above (admittedly shaky) reasoning doesn't jive well with me.

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Is @Elmo still V/LA?

He was only supposed to be V/LA until Tuesday

I see. Then he should really say something game related.
VOTE: Elmo, just to (uselessly) reiterate

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It is? I had next to no reason to vote Spartan at that point, and while yes, I did assume that he (and his slot) was town, now I'm not so sure. Spartan provided no reason to raise suspicion, other than his inaction at the time, which to me did not equate to his guilt. I'm only going to hop on a bandwagon I think will be good for town, and to me that wasn't one at the time.

I fell like you misunderstood (or most likely I failed to make myself clear). What I meant is that that was an off statement to make on Hellhound's part, or at least it seemed so to me. To that, can @Hellhound please clarify what he meant exactly? To me it seemed to imply that HH!scum would want to distance himself from the Spartan!town wagon, which I'm unconvinced on

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Look at the wording of HH's post again, this is more fence sitting. OK, by itself not a bad thing, but if we look at HH's bigger picture it is of no help to town and, at this point, his posts had provided no value to town.

For as much, no disagreement on my part.

To me it seemed to imply that HH!scum would want to distance himself from the Spartan!town wagon, which I'm unconvinced on

That is exactly what I was implying. There was no reason to distance himself from the wagon, so why would he?

Yes, exactly. What I'm saying is, while a townie wouldn't have a reason to, neither would a mafioso actually, in the assumption that Spartan (and well, you) was townie. It was the third vote, possibly the least suspicious one, in fact not jumping on or otherwise doing something with his vote was likely the most sus thing he could do

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it was the third vote,

possibly the least suspicious one

, in fact not jumping on or otherwise doing something with his vote was likely the most sus thing he could do

Sorry, i might be misunderstanding here so can you explain what you mean by the above for me? Why is the third vote least suspicious?

You've said not jumping on or doing something with his vote was the most sus thing he could do - have i understood that right too? Because he didn't do anything with his vote, and thats why i think, in the context of the situation, it was suspicious.

Well, there the third vote is the farthest away from both the starting, and the hammering vote (which is fifth). Furthermore, at that moment voting for Spartan seemed to be entirely not alignment indicative.

Also yes, you understood right. And in fact you seem to think in a similar fashion, as you agree on the fact that not making anything of his vote made him

more

suspicious. Hence I don't understand why you would suggest that a mafioso would have any interest of not hopping on that wagon.

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*interest in
I'm not anglophone, sorry for the grammar; I hope to be intelligible anyway

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I made specific note of the very first time that I myself claimed to be town, and here we are, citing it. Funny, the fact that I pointed out I was going to make a point of citing my first claim to being a townie is the very reason that it was cited, like a self fulfilling prophecy. There is absolutely no benefit for scum or town to say they're town, so why, then, did I claim to be town? I was explaining why, after I had deduced that talking was best for town, I would be doing so. I was attempting to follow the rules I had set out for town, but you (and others) found suspicion in this claim. A claim that wouldn't have helped me convince anyone I was town, and it only served to confirm that I would follow what I had felt was most beneficial for town.

My objection to that is mostly the same I had way back about your original declaration. I don't think it would have confirmed anything, much less that you would follow a pro-town gameplan. Why did you believe that citing that in the future would serve town in any way?

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@Hyrule, in the interest of displaying what you're feeling, please cast a vote (or if you really don't want to, at least a FOS, thou such reluctance would merit some explanation)

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[quote="In post 246,
Chazary, Brickwall, Hellhound, Biancos (I don’t think any of these have been voted for, would be further towards towny bucket but it’s the first day)[/quote]

To be punctilious, that those slots were never voted is untrue. If memory serves, Chazary was voted by CCG very early, and some time later (~ page 5) by Red (who also asked others to follow, to put pressure); I was voted during RVS by Brick; Hellhound's slot of course received some votes while it was still played by Spartan (in fact it reached a 3 votes wagon).

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for vote count analysis, RVS doesn't matter. But it is up for debate exactly at which post RVS ended.

Noob question, is there some manner of formula that is being used here to do the analysis?

Anti-town does not equal scum, especially when he just hasn’t done anything at all

I agree, I would not eliminate Elmo today, at least yet. Say, @redados, since you're both SE, so I presume you've played a decent amount of games on the site, do you happen to have past experiences playing with Elmo? If yes, would you say their usual playstyle is generally lurky?

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VOTE: Hyrule

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hello, game. I wasn't able to keep up w/ the recent influx of posts, kind of swamped IRL, will catch up in time and share my thoughts. But from what I've gotten from skimming, tho, HH spoke up and shared reads due to pressure on him, with a plausible explanation for his previous behaviour. And suspects hh. Elmo still hasn't posted. Red makes a bigbrain play to root himself and Brickwall in the towncore permanently. Did I miss anything?

I don't like this post. For one thing, it transparently attempt to convey no content, which is already fishy. But most concerningly it tries to weasel in some nontrivial notions;

it quietly states that HH's explanations wrt. his behaviour are "plausible"

, which is dubious and in fact has been point of contention -- and also, it attempts to put words in Red's mouth which would have some implications.

Is CCG attempting to sneakily cover HH a bit or I'm overreading this?

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VOTE: Hyrule

This is E-2

Yes. Is declaring E-

n

when voting just generally good etiquette for small values of

n

? If yes, sorry and I'll try to keep that in mind

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I always be starting pages

It's only been three times, but you are indeed the player who did that the most times so far

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@redados thanks for the heads up, will keep in mind.

HH is limbait

Let me ask something, please only answer with a boolean.
Do you still think that the quoted post is true?

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If hh flips red, I think bianco and esp. Red is cleared 100%, while sus falls on chazary mostly. Also hh + Elmo is a possibility at best, but I'm not sure if it's realistically feasible.

It may not be in my best interest to ask, but why exactly do you deem impossible for me to be hh!scum's partner? It is hard to look at my own behaviour from outside while pretending to doubt of me, but my interactions with that slot were mostly limited to:
1) casting a vote for Spartan, in a wagon that was there to elicit activity and not necessarily to eliminate; that could very well be just distancing, especially since Spartan's partner would possibly already know of Spartan's IRL issues and that there were hence very little chance the wagon would hold;
2) generally casting some vague doubt on hh, essentially agreeing with his stance w.r.t. HH, while nonetheless objecting to his line of reasoning; and I was not heavy handed either, in that I never actually explicitly accused him. Again, I guess this could possibly be just distancing.

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So, I read (well, heavily skimmed frankly) some past games of Elmo as both alignments, including a pretty recent one. About the latter there's something I would really like to talk about if Elmo were active -- which I doubt they are --, but in general I have picked up something which I believe is a pretty consistent alignment-indicative pattern. They seem to be vaguely lurky just in general, so there is not much to go on about here, but I have made an idea. I don't want to say what that pattern is before either Elmo reappears or we get mod confirmation that they aren't going to, since by its nature I believe it's better to see if we get some content from them before rendering it explicit. I'm just going to say, for now, that I believe that it is not a good idea to vote for them now as that won't work for anything, and that whomever still has their vote there (that is, just Baron if I'm not mistaken) should move it.

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Sorry for being so ambiguous, but I really don't want to taint any possible future response of Elmo.

As for your unvote, what I feel is that voting Elmo is not useful right now, not that is actively detrimental, so I don't think that not voting is better. I do kinda understand if you're not yet comfortable with putting someone on E-1, but still, at least do you care to indicate who you would be happiest to lim atm?

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@mod, does that mean something in particular?

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I mean the ~.~ thing

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I want to clarify that by "moving" a vote I meant toward someone. That's not the result I wanted

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@Baron, if you're not liking the Hyrule's wagon, I'd like to ask you first why, and then who would you like to be eliminated instead. Frankly not voting is not doing you any good

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@Brick,

I'm not SRing them, but not TRing either (though atm I lean town). I will share some thoughts anyway:

I’m leaving my vote where it is

Hyrule voting elsewhere is sound. I think that speaks to his town points that he's not voting me, even though I'm the counter wagon. Kind of torn here. Instinctually wanting to vote Hellhound now but that feels emotional rather than logical.

post #302 seems a bit unprompted, but I assume it is a sort of self-response to the quoted part of post #289. Now there were no significant developments on the hh front between those posts, except that he criticized some of CCG's reads quite heavily. So I believe that, if the change of mind between those two posts is a consequence of things happening in the game in that time frame, Red must have some reason not to vote people that are raising doubts over CCG. Both Red!town (if they had genuine suspects on CCG of their own) and Red!scum (if they were partner with CCG and wanted plausible deniability if CCG would ever end up limmed on those accusations) could want to do this. Note that Red has signaled, under request, their willingness to jump to a CCG wagon:

@Redados, would you consider a lim on CCGeek?

I would

That does make me think that they are probably not scumpartners, but they could very well have just gambled on that wagon just never happening and taking the chance to distance).

I’m town

This was in response to #310. This is less peculiar than the HH declaration imo in that it has some plausible motivation, if one were to just read it as "I have no need to answer to #310 in any capacity other than saying that it's false, since it stand on a premise I know being false". Still deflective, however, as it's not obvious to me that there is no value in attempting to refute that with some sort of argument that we could possibly follow. To be fair, they already stated why they felt acceptable to keep their vote on someone they're not SRing, which is one of the biggest accuses, so maybe they just didn't think that merited repeating.

I also think that their previous declaration of being "SUPER INNOCENT AND NOT SCUM" could be just brushed off as a sardonic joke to disparage HH's post #72 without being openly jerkish, even if it was imho a bit uncalled for. It could alternatively be supposed to be there to be quoted at the end of the game so that Red!scum may make fun of the town, but without jumping to conclusion is null. Somewhat mean in any case, but eh.

I’ve asked 2 questions which you haven’t answered:

Why are you so stressed?

What are your thoughts on post 310, particularly the last paragraph?

I was stressed when we had little activity, few productive votes, and the Elmo situation, and I didn’t think we would get an elimination off today. I’ve calmed down.

The activity level has in general remained about constant, it increased a bit but it's only natural close to the deadline; the Elmo situation is still there; and it is not really sealed that we'll be able to secure today's elimination, in fact atm that seems dependent on whether or not the HH's train will depart, as all other votes are somewhat dispersed; and at least two players have signaled unwillingness to move to E-1 yet. It's true that more players, myself included, have started to vouch for an elimination to be made (is it the general consensus? idk, but I'd like to hear opinions on that if someone disagree); however given all the above I presume Red should be frazzled still.

The reason I'm still leaning town (but jury's still out) is that they seem to be willing to jump on pretty much any strong wagon, and generally invite people to use their vote in a way that would generally benefit town. I also want to note that the interaction between Brick and Red is in fact quite prominent, but atm I don't know what to make of it.

P-Edit: I've seen the vote to CCG. This corroborates my idea that Red is town, per what I've said in the first paragraph

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VOTE FOR SOMEONE

If we're building a CCG wagon, I'm willing to join

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VOTE FOR SOMEONE

Wow, Caps lock. I see that I was not wrong in thinking you're still a bit frazzled.

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I will move my vote to CCG as soon as there will be some indication that someone else is willing to go with that wagon.

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I will move my vote to CCG as soon as there will be some indication that someone else is willing to go with that wagon.

Brick sounded like he was up for it

Yes, I know. It was implicitly an invitation to reiterate if they are still of the same idea

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Ops, in post #338 I obviously meant "the quoted part of post #290", not #289

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Not specifically from Brick, but I need confirmation that that train is going somewhere. Atm it does seem that Hyrule is the most likely eliminatee, so I feel like moving my vote without evidence to the contrary would be detrimental to the point of having a lim at all

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VOTE: CCGeek

That's E-2

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[P-edit: this was intended as a response to Red's post #354]

As I already noted in post #185, CCG has a history of casting doubt on, and generally being suspicious of, Hyrule. In fact, he also confirmed that (or at least I believe he did, please @CCG correct me if I'm wrong) in post #192 (between lots of other stuff that I'm omitting):

As for HH, bianco has made my job easier, and I really just have a little to add.

He even went as far as saying he would be in to wagon Hyrule, but without ever actually voting for him.

That attitude changed suddenly and subtly with post #240 and #294, even if he denies that post #240 is relevant.

hello, game. I wasn't able to keep up w/ the recent influx of posts, kind of swamped IRL, will catch up in time and share my thoughts. But from what I've gotten from skimming, tho, HH spoke up and shared reads due to pressure on him, with a plausible explanation for his previous behaviour. [...]

I don't like this post. For one thing, it transparently attempt to convey no content, which is already fishy. But most concerningly it tries to weasel in some nontrivial notions;

it quietly states that HH's explanations wrt. his behaviour are "plausible"

, which is dubious and in fact has been point of contention -- and also, it attempts to put words in Red's mouth which would have some implications.

Is CCG attempting to sneakily cover HH a bit or I'm overreading this?

Tbh it seems like you've misunderstood my intent. I have been suffering from slight activity issues recently due to IRL reasons and I haven't been able to invest as much time in this game as I would have liked. Therefore, I decided to bring that up and understand the general read consensus from potential replies without having to dedicate time to carefully read the entire thing myself (I'm lazy, ik). I failed in felicitating such a reply to my post, but Baron shared his list of reads later, which helped me gain a ton of perspective.

Also, in this post, while stating my opinion on the pressure on HH, I simply agreed with a previous sentiment that HH fits the noob!town profile. Now, I do see that how me and HH mutually tr-ing each other can become suspicious wrt your post. But, with this being HH's first game on the forum (I believe Red mentioned this somewhere), it definitely is plausible to read HH's behaviour as towny. [...] This makes me highly TR him right now. My purpose behind wanting pressure on HH led me to this conclusion.

So in conclusion I'd say they might, with CCG attempting to very gently distance while also alleviating the burden of accuses on Hyrule. Btw, that's the reason I was more interested in seeing Hyrule's flip, since if he's scum then I'd be quite more suspicious of CCG, but the viceversa is not so convincing to me

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Well, there goes the last remaining hope of see some content from Elmo. Now That I'm not going to taint their future nonexistent response, I may as well tell you the pattern I think I saw, but it's dubious if it's relevant anymore. I want to preface this by saying that I only looked at a sample of about three games for each alignment (Town and Mafia/Wolves), so that may be chance.

In each game I looked at where Elmo played as scum, they provided at least a long post with reads, generally quite early. For instance (and the list is clearly not comprehensive), from Mini1317 posts #137, #141, #209,#220; from Open387 posts #383, #386, #388; from Open382 post #120.

I did not find they do that with any consistency when they're town (unless of course I have missed some readlists while skimming). Also worth nothing that they in general do not appear to produce more meaningful content in response to getting voted or otherwise pressured while their town. In fact, in Newbie2105 they explicitly refused to give a read list in day 2 (see post #387) and even threatened to self-hammer in response to being put in E-1 (see #373), and they were VT, and they had been heavily lurking until that point. They did not follow up on the threat, but I'm not sure if they would have were not they hammered anyway.

I hope it is obvious why I didn't want to post this before giving them a chance of saying something, since I wanted to try to see if they were willing to provide a read list. Also I understand that I appear to say that they (while generally not very active) are actually even less active while town, which would be odd, but... that's kinda what I'm saying. All in all, obviously that's nothing really there to read into, but I don't really have a reason to SR them

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Welcome @BlueBloodToffee!

Anyway, I do want to elicit some manner of response from Spartan, so
VOTE: Spartan
Even if to me it's mostly null at this point

This post is interesting because it seemed like you were heading towards voting HH (77), but then both Red and Brick stated that they thought HH was town and your read seems to have disappeared? Instead, you have chosen to vote for a 'null player' who is already garnering a decent level of suspicion from other player. This feels opportunistic.

My read never disappeared, and in fact I referenced it some in posts further down the line. And that vote feels opportunistic 'cause it kinda is, I was genuinely curious about what Spartan would have to say and thought the deadline was so far away that it was more useful to use my vote to put pressure rather than actually indicating who I would want to lim. Next I voted for Elmo, for much of the same reason, and in fact the first vote actually intended for a lim was for Hyrule. I've since moved it to CCG, but I'm still very much not convinced that Hyrule is town

[biancospino]

p-edit: saw BBT posted, I've not read yet

Alright, but my main point still stands. You had no further reads at that time and you didn't vote for HH after he started gaining town reads in thread.

I still don't particularly understand why you chose to vote a null player over somebody who you thought could be scum either. Like, if you thought HH was scum then vote him and start applying pressure there? Instead of a random null slot that is already gaining attention. You know?

As I saw it, there were no actual reason to directly put pressure on HH with a vote, since it was already been made clear that he was being kept an eye on; and besides, when thereafter he was getting multiple TR, I figured putting a vote there would be even less useful since it wasn't even gonna gain traction. Now, of course I was wrong on that, and most likely I was wrong on playing in this way, especially seeing that HH started to say stuff in response to votes. I even initially refused to move my vote from Elmo's slot, which was most definitely a misplay, but for some reason I became overly eager to see some reaction from that slot, and for some reason I convinced myself that keeping my vote there would help achieve that; which now I understand was probably not particular brilliant.

In a semi-unrelated note, HH did not post since 16/dec 22:28 UTC, which if I'm not mistaken is almost 2 full real-life day ago. What's up with that, did they go in V/LA or something and I didn't notice?

[biancospino]

The soft-defence of Chazary in 134 felt off as well, I don't understand where this came from as there was no suggestion that he was town reading Chazary at that point of the game.

There were no suggestion that I was TRing Chazary simply because I wasn't, and that post was not intended as a defence. I simply wanted to inquire on the nature of the invitation to vote for him on #124 just in case Red happened to have some genuine reads on him. I never got a response, so I just assumed that they hadn't.

[biancospino]

I mean, it's not that I worried how my vote would have been perceived, I worried that it would have been less useful than what I ended up doing. As I said, I've since reevaluated that assessment, and also thanks for the tips.

[biancospino]

@CCG, you are on the line and still haven't said anything. I also remind you that hh has signaled his willingness to hammer if nothing would have changed 24 hours after he posted, which would be in around 1 hour from now. So, if you have anything to say I suggest you do it now, and also I don't see why if you're town you would not just claim at this point. You also stated you would say something ~16 hours after post #391, which was around 23.30 hours ago

[biancospino]

as it seems, if I'm not mistaken, at least hh and Brick, see #394, #396. Though I'd imagine a claim may change matters, please @CCG provide one

[biancospino]

Hi! I'm cactus

Oh hey, welcome

[biancospino]

CCG's ISO was mildly annoying to read because he's using HH for HyruleHitman and hh for hellhound. Please stop doing that.

Well, good thing is now it's no longer necessary, since Hyrule is no longer here. But I kinda liked it :/

CCG and Hyrule, please explain your votes on hellhound

Uh, now Hyrule is you actually

[biancospino]

As I already pointed out in #185, you'll notice a great amount of posts in CCG's ISO are casting doubts on HH. CCG confirmed that impression in #192. Now, you'll notice that CCG has signaled to be willing to hop on a HH wagon, see e.g.

if it's a HH wagon we're building, I'll gladly join in. Information is our key priority rn, and near-elim pressure might be what we need to get a grasp on HH.

Even if he would be glad to join in, he didn't when such wagon was being built. But not only that, you'll notice that not much after that post he became subtly defensive of HH (that change is quite visible from #240); that by itself wouldn't be suspicious to me, but the fact that he previously appeared to soft-SR HH, and then turns that around while nothing really has changed is a bit weird, and make me fear that there may have been some distancing going on -- especially since he then negated that he was attempting to defend him, while also defending him.

Also, and that's minor but that feels a bit uneasy to me, he made some really bizarre conclusions in #294; in particular he seems to have concluded that, if hellhound's scum, then both me and Red should be very likely town, and I don't agree. In fact I don't see how one could conclude from that that either me or Red is town; CCG was questioned on that point by both hellhound and myself, but never gave an answer, and in fact just said that he would post a complete case against hellhound in the future. Again, that in isolation does likely not mean much, but he made me uneasy on a slot on which I already had doubts.

[biancospino]

yes I'm alive

So?

[biancospino]

Folks, it's 11h to the deadline. Anything that CCG wants to claim that is counterclaimable must get through fast. Otherwise we risk any counterclaim being skipped over just because who were to give one is currently asleep, or at work or somesuch. @CCG, I'm not buying that typing your response would take so long unless it turns out to be a full essay, and we're a bit short on time rn

[biancospino]

I have droned on about Hyrule for a long time, now I'll deal with red ig. Red used to be one of the most widely townread players, and then the consensus shifted. However, the fact that he is willing to call out his own play really paints the opposite of scum to me. In fact, his method of reaction fishing here, and also in a few other places, seems intelligent enough to me.

I have a little problem with this. Not that you TR red, that's fair. What bugs me is that what you stated and were asked to justify was that "if hh is scum, then red is surely town", so you must have had an implication in mind between those two enunciates; however you still failed to clarify that implication. That is, you said that you believe that red is surely town conditionally to hh being scum, and then explained why you tought that red is surely town uncinditionally on hh's alignment

[biancospino]

@hh, to play devil's advocate a bit, I think it's reasonable to read HH differently just because he isn't a SE. CCG is saying that some mistakes could reasonably not come from an experienced player unless they were faked. Given how I am a complete noob myself and most likely commited plenty of such mistakes, I don't really know if that assumption is actually sensible, but I don't think it's necessarily absurd

[biancospino]

Oh, I do know that he said he woul be glad to join on the wagon and then prompty didn't, in fact I remarked as much myself. And wrt red I'm still waiting from his explanation on that weird causal link he saw

[biancospino]

In unrelated news, did Toffee disappear? It has been around 44 hours now, or I'm unable to count?

[biancospino]

Sorry, I had to go afk for a couple hours, and even now I'm accessing the forum on a phone. Chaz is now at E-2, same as CCG, correct?

[biancospino]

Look, my gut feeling is more for CCG atm, but I'm willing to change boat if it is necessary for a lim. Who are the two people who stll aren't voting for either wagon?

[biancospino]

Wait, they're cactus and CCG right?

[biancospino]

@hh, what does it mean "assuming

we

make it"?

[biancospino]

I mean, "we the town" will surely make it to D2, even if maybe not we all. But I concede it may just be a funny use of language

[biancospino]

Or CCG can move to Chazary and make it E-1.

Chazary is right there.

Or possibly @cactus.

[biancospino]

Ok, here's the problem: I don't think either CCG or cactus will appear in the next four hours, and in any case Red cannot hammer on Chez. So, unless I'm wrong on cactus's availability (in which case I might hammer Chez), CCG is really the only lim that can happen in time. I'm gonna be honest, my gut feeling right now is for CCG, but should he flip green my view of hh would be tainted. Also, I don't know if I will be able to stay around for another 4 hours, it's already midnight here; I know my vote may be crucial so I'll try to remain awake till the end, but no guarantees

[biancospino]

Well, so that's that

[biancospino]

Oh, i see cactus's online now
Sorry we didn't wait for you, but I'm sure you'll get the urgency

[biancospino]

For curiosity's sake, I presume you would have voted Chaz?

[biancospino]

I can't stick around for much time right now, I'm probably going in 30' or so. Now, I don't think there's too much problem in putting Chez at E-1, since if he's town the other scum cannot quickhammer or we discover who they are and win tomorrow. So, I think I'm going to vote Chaz; if anyone disagrees please tell me so in the next half hour

[biancospino]

I re-read the game during the night and I was null on cactus. Confused on why he was the night kill, maybe the mafia was PR hunting? I thought that a lot of the town saw Hyrule/Cactus and CCGeek as a possible scumpair. That’s confusing to me.

Yes, that's interesting indeed. Now, I have an idea as for why, and that is that mafia needed someone to die tonight, and cactus was very likely not going to be protected. However even if true this would give us zero setup information anyway since each column of newD3 permits a jk or doc

[biancospino]

Post 391 is one of the only reasons BBT is null for me and not scum. The whole counterwagon off of CCGeek looks awful, especially as a reversal.

At what pace were you catching up, BBT?

Why post #391? It was CCG's promise he would post in 16h no? That doesn't tell me anything about BBT frankly, even in light of CCG's flip, or if anything it's a little smelly how that post happened quite fast after BBT replaced in, so I guess it may be possible that CCG was encouraged by BBT in the mafia PT to post something.

Also, I agree with Red that putting Chaz to E-1 is not excessively risky. So, VOTE: Chazary.

That's E-1

P-Edit: saw Red, wrong post number, all fine now

[biancospino]

@brick
UNVOTE: Chez
I don't think any townie will hammer so fast, but if you're nervous about it I'll keep them E-2

[biancospino]

Anyway, wrt post 88, the mafia has indeed daytalk. But frankly I'm also puzzled as of where that proof is in that post

[biancospino]

@BBT Did you mean post #13 instead of #88?

[biancospino]

I don't see how he gets noob cred for asking it?

You are saying you should be TR'd for that very reason. If your logic is sound, then if you're scum, that could have been placed as a form of easy garancy in case CCG were to be limmed and flip

[biancospino]

Speaking of Red, I just realized that #73 is a bit weird:

I skimmed over the posts so far and no comments on the Elmo BW, except the fact that he will be on T/LA till tomorrow (post #5).
[...]

Thanks for pointing out that Elmo is V/LA, I didn’t notice that. UNVOTE:

Specifically I find a wee hard to believe that Red didn't care to check why CCG had asked the meaning of V/LA in the first place before answering to that in #15:

Second time ever playing a forum mafia game so: what is v/la? :think:

The answer is in here: https://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?ti ... reviations

It’s a good resource regardless

[biancospino]

Game solved.

That's the second time you claim so, and with non-overlapping scumpairs. That's some real appeal to guts right there (tough this time around the reasoning for that claim was solidly backed, so I don't know what to make of it)

[biancospino]

Sure. VOTE: Red

[biancospino]

That's E-2, right?

[biancospino]

I'll be V/LA till 26/dec around 15:00 UTC or so.

I may still be able to read stuff and ideally I'll try to post something, but likely not much.

[biancospino]

I'm going to ask a question to @BBT before calling it a day.

Consider this post of yours, bolding mine:

Yeah I was not doing anything intentionally. I was really struggling with my day one reads, but I hoped it would be scarier to scum if I was being more mysterious as opposed to that I really didn’t know what I was doing.

Hmm, OK. You were doing it an awful lot, a lot of your D1 posts were naked votes which I tend to think is more likely to come from town

but you definitely come into the 'too scummy to be scum' bracket.
[...]

VOTE: CCGeek

E-1

This is his very next contribution. It seems he’s trying to join in an effort to be seen as town, knowing it’s too late for CCG anyway. Remember, his only comment on CCG before was questioning them being very town, which I can see scum doing to their pair with very little repercussions. BBT didn’t even call CCG scum. He just questioned ‘very town’, which is sort of a gimme.

Alright, let's look at this. So, I am trying to join the CCG wagon

as an effort to look town - do you think a naked vote garners that reaction?

Do you think my vote might get more credence if I, you know, stated reasons for my vote and made it look like I was fully invested into it?

Which type of vote do you think

appears

more townie?

I stand by what I said yesterday in that it wasn't too late to form a new wagon, my biggest problem right now is that it looks like I was trying to drive a counter-wagon to a wagon that ended up on scum and that's a completely fair accusation.
[...]

So, you said yourself that you personally believe that naked votes are more likely to come from town; but also, in the same post mind, you heavily implied, if not outright stated, that a non-naked vote would appear to be more townie. There is some disconnect here, and I'd like a commentvon that.

Also, wrt Elmo,

@mod do you confirm that you edited in the note about Elmo's V/LA in post #5 (and that note was not initially there)?

I'm not disbelieving you Red, but I don't have an exact memory of how it went, so I feel more confortable asking

Also,

@mod, I also second the request for a short Christmas extension

.

[biancospino]

I have half an hour and I want to try something. Two questions:
@red, @bbt, @baron, @chaz: do you read Brick and hh as town?

@brick, @hellound: if you were a cop, who would you have investigated last night?

I want to see the answers before actually explaining what my idea is. Depending on the answers, I may abort it instead.

[biancospino]

Alright, well I have said what I needed to say.

I'm reasonably happy to be the lim today as long as town goes through with Red on D3.

I do read this post quite town-y

[biancospino]

UNVOTE:

HH is limbait

This post is making me doubt that Red can plausibly be scum, they were the first to actually go and say that HH was likely not scum, while he began to come under fire. I don't really see a reason for Red!scum to do that at that time.

However, @Red really needs to answer to some shady stuff. You were asked what was the post you read that made you think you solved the game, but did not answer. For that matter, you yourself noted that you din't answer to a question I made you mid day 1 about Chaz, but still you gave no answer. Why is it that you don't answer questions?
I rekon your playstyle was always rather jovial and spontaneous, but why did you noticeably crank the jokester factor come D2 as some accuses were headed your way? It may sound a silly complaint, but I couldn't fail to notice that you used a bunch of smiley in a string of posts, which I don't think you ever did before, and started straight out saying things "as a joke", and once in response to an accusation. Why is that?

Also, the questions I've asked a couple days ago were intended to aid an idea I had to solve the game, but I need to see what hh says and I also need to see that Chaz comes back. The problem is I can't actually explain what the idea is in full detail without revealing something, but I'll attempt to explain myself in the best way I can without revealing too much once hh returns (unless I realise that there's something wrong with my idea, which may very well be)

[biancospino]

And, while I do not disagree with post #697, didn't you immediately wagon Chez just at the beginning of D2? It may a bit hypocritical for me to note that since I was the one to put them at E-1, but you specifically did not discourage me to do it

[biancospino]

If you're saying that we should not play cangaroo court on the basis of Chaz's inactivity, sure.

But if your saying that merely voting Chaz is now less acceptable that it was before, I would ask you to walk me through the reasoning. Sorry if it's obvious.

P-E: I'm satisfied wrt all my other questions

[biancospino]

Except, I'll still like to know what post you saw that made you think you solved the game, for curiosity's sake

[biancospino]

When did he townbin me? Honestly help me out

I was widely townread for the first few IRL days of the game

In the very post I quoted. He says 'Red makes a bigbrain play to root himself and Brickwall in the towncore permanently.' You said you had made no big brain play, but did not question this read further.

It was ambiguous, but I did not, at that time, read CCG's post as you did. To me, "Red makes a bigbrain move to root himself [...] in the towncore" sounded like CCG was asserting that Red was attempting some strange maneuver to trick us into believing they were town, and to that allegation Red's answer that they were not doing any bigbrain move sounded reasonable. But of course we can no longer ask CCG whatever he meant.

[biancospino]

Except, I'll still like to know what post you saw that made you think you solved the game, for curiosity's sake

please drop it

I'll do, sorry

[biancospino]

Thanks, makes sense

[biancospino]

He may have also posted recently in the scum thread or something

How is that in any way relevant? It feels red herring-y; I'm like 99,99% sure only posts on the main game thread have any bearing on the prod timer, specifically to avoid this discussion. I'm gonna ask @alianna to chime in on that to be 100% sure, but still.

[biancospino]

Except, I'll still like to know what post you saw that made you think you solved the game, for curiosity's sake

please drop it

I'll do, sorry

Why are we dropping it?

I got the impression that answering that question would not be readily possible without uselessly revealing stuff, which is plausible enough that I accept it's unwise to press further. Of course I can't read Red's mind so I may be wrong on that

[biancospino]

As far as I'm concerned, as long as we elim you and Chazary, we win. So I'm not particularly fussed on the order.

@BBT, do you have any strong opinion on Baron? From #734 you clearly think that Baron must be town

[biancospino]

I think you're continuing the change in playstyle of being as appease-y as possible.

I also think that you might actually be town but that's more down to Chazary coming across as demotivated scum more than anything you have done.

As far as I'm concerned, as long as we elim you and Chazary, we win. So I'm not particularly fussed on the order.

You keep identifying groups of two people that, if we lim, we win the game, but keep changing who those people are. I don't think it's a good look, as I already remarked it feels an excessively emotionally charged language. That said, it is true that we can't lose if we determine a group of 3 or less people among which there is the remaining mafioso (since we have 2 free mislims before ELo); by the point of view of you!town, such subset should be fairly apparent, so I found quite strange how you left Baron out in post #734, that's why I asked you about it.

But yes, I'm with you that Baron has been acting weird, and that last post very much was not the promised case on Red, or rather it was kind of a case but so very lazy as to not be really anything. And it was also weird how "Red did some scummy things, and Chaz also but not really" had as it conclusion "My n1 suspicion is still on BBT". This all feels wrong.

I'm gonna be real honest, among the four slots we are feeling to be reddish rn (BBT, Red, Baron, Chaz) I'm not seeing anyone I'm confortable in saying they're most likely town. However, atm I personally (and I imagine at least Brick may disagree) have Red as the least red of the bunch (pun unintended), since while it is true that there have been a noticeable shift in playstyle, there are some things I would deem slightly weird to come from Red!scum; for instance, while Red disincentiving Brick to vote Chaz was indeed peraphs a bit hypocritical, the reasoning seemed sound to me, and notably I don't really see a reason why Red!scum would have done that (unless it was to make them look town, which is possible enough that I'm not quite TRing Red). It really sucks to have a deep red slot, Chaz, be silent.

I don't know yet if I want to lim Baron today. I'm not strongly opposed to it, so VOTE: Baron. But I don't think we should let the day end before Chaz or a sub say something, as it feels like we're missing a pretty important puzzlepiece otherwise

[biancospino]

That's E-2 I believe

[biancospino]

Well, the reaction Baron had to my post #321 was a bit weird. I did not comment much at the time, but in retrospect I should probably have inquired further on the reason. After being asked to move their vote, they "complied" by moving it to nobody, which is both noncommittal and, by doing not nothing, appeasing

[biancospino]

If I’m using my glossary knowledge correctly, it could be worth just going for a Policy vote on CC.

Tough looking back at Baron's ISO some posts are giving me pause. Here in #440 he was at E-1 and Baron is putting a policy lim on the table.
On the other hand, post #414 may be constryed to be an attempt to stifle the wagon without actually dirting one's hand by unvoting. Same energy from #510

P-E: I guess that's fair

[biancospino]

*construed, I'm on a phone

[biancospino]

I think BBT and Bianco make some good points in respect of Baron. I have always kind of seen Baron as a 'noob town' rather than scum leaning, and on that basis have kind of let them run under the radar. I am yet to do a reread (back to work today) but will take a look at them in them again this evening.

Just playing a bit of devil's advocate here, @BBT and @Bianco, what makes you think Baron's behaviour is scum like as opposed to disinterested/inexperienced town?

In all fairness, I can see it being either way, I don't really think any single thing they said to be necessarily AI (but surely some have been anti-town). However, they seem to have successfullt flown under the radar for a long time after coming out as suspicioys for much of the early D1, and I don't want that to happen. I've pushed in their general direction now since we really don't need anyone to be able to hide in the shadows.

[biancospino]

I’m back and starting to read through the game for the other scum, I’m looking at BBT, Redados and Biancos first

@Baron, have you a reason why not Chaz?

[biancospino]

Is the implication of your post that you want to policy-elim Baron? Or is it that you’re not having fun?

This question is not technically charged, but the usage of the "or" here heavily suggests that one of those possibilities must be the case. And besides, you don't ask question that you already know would be answered as no, so this question existing would imply that "Brick wants to policy lim Baron" is a valid implication to deduce

[biancospino]

E-2, right?

[biancospino]

Can anyone talk to me about Chazary and Hellhound?

I probably want to vote out one of these today...

Dude we had an existing hellhound wagon going…

I mean, Red did voice a slight complaint about it. But did eat it up. And clearly was still SRing Chaz at the beginning of D2; and if as they say they voted Chaz to vote with town and they now deem BBT to be sus precisely because of that Chaz vote in D1, surely they should not have went in so strong D2?

[biancospino]

Hellhound/Chazary is scum team.

Town win.

Huzzah!

@BBT, can you explain to me where did this SR on hh come from? Specifically, I did not find in your ISO any credible case for hh. In fact, it reads more like you was SR me significantly more than hh.

[biancospino]

What I'm at is that #482 connotates a strong convinction, which is of note as nothing you said beforehand really justified it. I don't actually think the why necessarily still matters now, however I'm trying to undersrand if gut statements from you of similar heaviness should be taken as posted in the heat of the moment or if they have more actual weight.

[biancospino]

UNVOTE:
I think my vote did its job.

I too agree that Chaz is the n°1 suspect, but I do not wish to lim him before a replacement appears; at least until the mods confirm that a replacement exist, I may understand that the logic here may be that a rep may just be disincentived to partecipate, and probably wont have a good experience, if they find out they have a scum PM in such a compromised position, but we should at least give them the possibility of trying to defend themselves; I'm not 100% convinced that they are scum

[biancospino]

I want to elim this slot but why turbo elim before we hear the slot’s perspective on the flip, the nightkill, what happened today, etc

I hear you, but we still didn't. Is this vote just there to pressure, or is it informed by Way's first posts? I'm not sure I like that Way just came out of the box casting some doubts on the player that told him they're SRing his slot, but that is a little flimsy

[biancospino]

Several things:

• deadline is in less than 48h, and
  there is New Year's Eve/Day in the middle
  , and it would be natural that people may not be active
  
• I loathe to bother @Hellhound, flu is no fun and I sincerely hope he gets better; but it was more than a full day since his prod dodge and we need him back.
  
• Wayward's is still sleeping, I presume from the timestamp of his last post, so we'll have to wait on that, but I am currently of the idea that the remaining mafioso is in {Red, Way} (I still have some doubts on Blue and Baron, to varying degrees). Given that, atm I whish to lim one if the two today.
  VOTE: Wayward, E-1
  But nobody hammer at least until he had said what he wants to say (unless he remains silent till the deadline comes too close, we don't want a no-lim I believe and so silence would be really sus)

[biancospino]

In terms of self-preservation, CCGeek has every motivation to make a push on me, right? Because that’s his best chance to not get voted out? And he’s not. That reads as town to me.

This would also support us being a scumpair, but I know my alignment, so I can rule that out.

UNVOTE:

If everyone could be on or say their availability to be on so we can avoid a no-lim, that would be great. I have to wake up in six and a half hours or so, so I’ll be on then.


VOTE: Hellhound

@Way, what do you think of this post? I believe it's kinda the only time that Red straight-out acted in such a way to obstacle a lim happening.

As Red is here rn, it's fine that day1 is different, but isn't that somewhat inconsistent with your d1 play too? You said yourself that you were fully willing to lim HH even if you did not think of him as scum, but at the same time was not willing to vote CCG exactly because you did not think of him as scum?

Also, @Baron, @Blue, @Hellhound (yes, I'm still hoping you come back), between Red and Way is there anyone you would not be willing to vote?

[biancospino]

Starting from 451, I'd say hellhound and biancospino mainly. You (BBT) slightly.

If you have specific posts in mind for those town spews, can you point me to them? There are some I can see myself that may be, but I want to see if we're around the same wavelength

[biancospino]

I also want to ask you the same actually. Could you list all slots that you are willing to vote for today?

[biancospino]

Red just made only 2 names. Since we do have two mislims, I would expect a scum to try to keep a suspect list longer than that; unless they specifically don't want to, to let one make the inference I'm making.

Same thing is true of Wayward.

I may be foolish, probably in fact, but VOTE: Blue. But waiting to see if Red claims smt

[biancospino]

>snip<

Also, glad to have you back! Are you feeling alright?

[biancospino]

The main reason is that the vote that I would probably give if I didn’t know what others were voting would be to CC.

But they have no votes, so my vote would do nothing. None of the three with votes for them seem worthy of going to E-1, E-2 or E-2 respectively.

I would be interested to know if you think voting for CC has any point at this stage.

VOTE: CCGeek

It is true that Red initiated the CCG wagon

[biancospino]

Just lemme ask a question, are there someone in the set {Baron, Blue, Red, Way} you are NOT willing to vote out?

[biancospino]

... there are not really that many roles for which it matters what action resolution we're using. And I believe there is only one for which NAR vs RAR matters...

[biancospino]

Look, Way practically has claimed jk, otherwise I have no idea why he cares if we're under RAR. I'm I wrong here?

[biancospino]

*am

[biancospino]

Fuck it.

Hellhound, Red and Wayward - you have all softed PRs. I think town probably wins with a mass claim anyway.

I missed some, could you link me the appropriate posts?

[biancospino]

I was worried that if I'm NKed, my protection may not go through. We're in either column A or B.

Who did you protect? I don't see a reason not to say it

[biancospino]

A doc would not be worried of such since there is only one nk per night. So the only way it makes sense is if you're a jk that worried that your target may have been able to kill you, thus avoiding your jailing? If we're in column A, that may happen, roleblocker wins

[biancospino]

@Way, the only way you!jk may know that we're not in C is that you received a message from a Friendly Neighbour. So say so or I don't believe you; unless you say that you're a Doc, in which case I also don't believe you.

@Blue, wait at least a bit for a claim!

[biancospino]

Hmm, Roleblocker for scum could be huge.

It's multitasking, so can kill one pr and block the other at the same time. That's the reason a massclaim is really dangerous and I'm not sure we want it to happen today

[biancospino]

If red claims either tracker or friendly neighbour, there is no contradiction

[biancospino]

Am I wrong in thinking @Way's claim make 0 sense unless he is a jk and knows a fn? That seem it should be easy to cc?

[biancospino]

@Brick It's possible I misunderstand things, but basically the only weird thing that may happen in the setup and that may depend on the order things are resolved is roleblocker and jk acting on each other. Every other interaction does not depend on order, so what resolution schemata were we using does not matter

[biancospino]

But @Blue, please check on that conclusion for me, that's very much possible I may have screwed that up

[biancospino]

(Also, Way talked about protection, but surely a doc would not worry about what happens to their protection if they eat the nk!)

[biancospino]

Also, let me clarify that my conclusion hinges on Way having actually claimed jk, and Way not making a mistake by not noting that C2 features a jk too.

[biancospino]

I admit I wouldn't call it all facts, but I still think it's plausible. Do you think it's scum casing Town, or just a wayward Townie down a bad rabbit hole?

Can we also talk about this for a second? This question may be in jest, but it is charged, as it assumes that either Blue is scum or Way is town

[biancospino]

"wayward" townie... I read it as an half joke on his user, but I guess I may be wrong

[biancospino]

As in, "I'm a townie that went in a bad hole of trying to convince myself of how Red, that I'm tunnelling hard, is actually scum"

[biancospino]

[I also admit I didn't know wayward was an actual English word. Now that I've checked it is so, I'm much less convinced that post is relevant, oops]

[biancospino]

I was worried that if I'm NKed, my protection may not go through. We're in either column A or B.

Please, tell me why would a doc ever worry about this. There's only one nk per night...

[biancospino]

Were you preoccupied wether a tracker would or would not see you? 'Cause that's literally the only thing that would change either way in that scenario

[biancospino]

Ok, look: a fake cop claim can always be cc'ed. I am not able to do so. Please anyone, say if you can or cannot cc (i.e. if you're either cop, jk, mason, tracker or fn)

[biancospino]

(Do not say your role, obvs)

[biancospino]

@Brick No, the cop has failed, so we cannot be in C1 (if Red is the true cop)

[biancospino]

I believe Red, and unless someone CCs, he's Conf Town in my book.

p-edit Lol, I guarantee we're in A or B.

Agreed. And if we determine that Red is the real cop, you also are the real Doc unless someone ccs.

[biancospino]

As I said already, I rekon that a cop fakeclaim is impossible (as there will always be a cc, and then we win), so I believe you. If nothing happens right about now, goodnight and we'll see tomorrow.
Anyway, I say that whomever can should cc, and all the rest should say they can't (of course, one cc is enough); if nobody can, I want to lim Blue.

[biancospino]

If someone counterclaims, the scum is between two slots (the claimer and the counterclaimer), and so town win. So any town slot that can cc would do so, and nobody did

[biancospino]

That is ... hardly an issue

from now on

, if we don't win today the Doctor will most likely be killed, not Roleblocked, tonight, since I highly doubt scum would want to take a confirmed Townie to ELo. In fact the fact the Doc could be roleblocked was only an issue

last night

, since that was clearly the reason we have a dead Cop on our hands.

VOTE: Baron
Now, before proceeding with what will likely be our lim for today, we should probably already start discussing what to do tomorrow if we don't win today

[biancospino]

That is unfortunate, but you must see that if you are intent on voting me if it gets to ELo, you force me to vote you back; either you're town, and hh quickhammers me for the win and it doesn't matter who I vote for, or you're scum and I need to vote you.
I admit I had, in general, read you as town, however I do not believe firmly that you must be so. The piece of evidence we have is you hammering the proverbial nail on CCG's coffin, however it may be argued that CCG would have died regardless when Red would have woken up; and so for you to "steal" the hammer could well have been a ploy to confirm yourself once it became impossible to save your partner, that you had previously bussed.

That said, I currently believe that us three are all town. If that's the case, I invite Baron to self-hammer, if they're scum than there is no point in prolonging a losing game further.

[biancospino]

While im quite content that Baron is scum, a plan or discussion around the next day is probably wise. As mentioned, its likely WS will be the next NK to remove a confirmed townie, but is there a scenario where WS staying alive is preferable for scum?

See, there is a problem with discussing that. Suppose we show there is a scenario where the scum ought to leave Way alive; in that case, said scum would surely be made aware of that possibility even if they did not see it themselves

[biancospino]

@Baron I'm generally not too argumentative, I don't know what to tell you. Anyway, about that specific post, I strongly believed that attempting to make inferences on that NK, at least before seeing D2 gameplay, was not going to be fruitful, and I felt that pointing out a scenario in which that NK would come to pass in such a way town could not gather any information from it would have done the trick.

About how you feel I'm not actually contributing much, yeah, you're probably right, there's hoping my skill will get better sometimes.

What did catch my eye, however, is that Baron is still inputting some work into the game. I may be wrong here, but I believe Baron!scum would have mostly given up by now. Apologies to the town if my gut is wrong.
UNVOTE: Baron

[biancospino]

I'm calling it, the scum is in {Hellhound, Brickwall}.
@Way, can I ask you the ranking of players by scumminess in your opinion?

[biancospino]

Yeah no, if I had a case I would have actually voted. I just had a hunch it wasn't Baron, and there are not many players left.

Anyway, as the Baron lim is going through regardless,

Intent to hammer

. I hope we don't get to ELo since you already clearly made me know you intend to lim me; in that case, compliments to the Mafia

[biancospino]

As scum, I've ... even claimed Town after the lim in Twilight.

I don't disbelieve you but... why?

[biancospino]

Let's get it over with.
VOTE: Baron
That should be a hammer.

[biancospino]

Good morning everyone. I am in a rather tight spot, as I am sure you already have booked the execution square in my honor, but I must urge one of you to reconsider.
I hereby claim that the scum is our esteemed Brickwall. Which is bad, since they did a really great job at being towny. But here's my case regardless. Apologies for the wall, and for the use of post numbers in lieu of quotes, but I don't currently have access to a pc and doing heavy quoting on a phone is hell. I preprepared this wall imagining the NK was going to be what it ended up being, but I had prepared some variations just in case it ended up differently, so apologies if there are any error in how thing are stitched up.

------

Both I, Hellhound and Brick were on CCG's wagon, and justified our suspicion to varying degrees -- regrettably, I rekon I was the most hesitant. However, there is a clear pattern, starting in #205, of both Hellhound and me arguing that CCG beng scum would also point in the direction of HH/cactus being his partner. We surely all remeber Hellhound doing that. My reasoning for CCG looking dubious was specifically that he seemed to have a weird link with HH, as I noticed in #271 and remarked further. This is very much not really true for Brick.
Now, I believe this is significant since cactus was the one killed at night. Neither I nor Hellhound could plausibly benefit from such a death, as we (well, Hellhound more than me I rekon) have pushed to delineate a link between CCG and HH, so to kill cactus would have been to void that effort completely, and possibly to show that the accusation toward CCG was obtained with faulty basis. There can clearly be an element of WIFOM to this, I admit that.

Now, clearly anyone of us who is scum intended the game to progress to ELo, since that's the only way the mafia could win with a mafioso executed D1, and we were all on the wagon. In that regard, it should be noted that nobody of us three received any votes D2 and D3, so essentially the mafia planned ahead the exact composition of the final threes. So, the mafia probably wanted to take to ELo someone scummier than the rest, and presumably would have attempted to erode the image of that player. Since it's clear I am the designated victim, one should give a look at how I was being read.
That Brick does not see kindly at me is obvious, look e.g. at posts #1013, #1012 (also, do note post #416. I believe Brick's read on me have opportunistically changed after BBT's comments). Day 3 they admitted they would want to vote for me in ELo (and also that they will not vote immediately; while the latter is likely the right thing to do for a townie if there are any doubts, I don't think it's AI). I also wish to respond to #1104. There is an enormous difference between CCG's and Baron's situations. CCG's death did not immediately spell defeat, so whatever he said in defense of himself, even if it would not have prevented the lim, could very plausibly have affected things further in the game. Whatever Baron!scum would have said would have affected nothing at all, since the game would have been over (also, I don't think CCG's situation was as inevitable as Baron's, but that isn't really the point).
Hellhound, on the other hand, did not talk of me much at all past D1, and during D1 he never accused me of anything and actually mostly cast me as town.
And as we're on the matter, you'll notice how I didn't ever cast any real shadow over any of you two. In fact I didn't do anything to let out that I may not believe any of you were not town until D3, and that's only because I had a hunch that Baron could not be scum.

Now, let's turn to the big elephant in the room, that Brick cannot be scum because of their case on CCG. Well, I don't believe that such case presents an impossibility at all. See, there's a case in posts #178 and followings, however they retracted such arguments in #222 and then later in #303, albeit still saying his posts were "erratic". Notice also that such retraction came also with a retraction of their vote for CCG. The vote moved back only to hammer (even if they repeatedly said they wanted to vote there since #305); however it should be noted how Red would have, in all likelihood, cast the hammer themselves when they would have woken up, so for Brick!scum to sentence CCG was really not a sacrifice at all and netted quite a lot of town cred. On the other hand, both me!scum and Hellhound!scum's votes would have been a genuine bus, and one to lead to a hammer at that.

I do also feel I have a need of defending myself; I don't know what to tell you about my noncommitance except that you're right I should probably have attempted to be more brazen. However, please notice that both Red and Way being conftown is really not working in me!scum favour; so I should have had all reasons, before the claim, to cast doubts over them.
Now, truth to be told, it's rather unfortunate in that regard that I came out really pushy against Way's claim. That was a consequence of a rather nasty misunderstanding (and frankly, I still don't really get why would the Doc may fear what happens if they eat the NK, but I was probably to eager to make accuses there). However, please note post #907, which was before the claim, where not only I soft-TR both Red and Way, but also moved my vote away. Also look at #984, #985, #987, #988, #992, #1052 where I explicitly say not only that both claims are true, but also make sure that no doubt could be had about it. And, it may sound pretty out there, but post #994 by Brick is... dunno, slightly weird, it feels weirdly enthusiastic a thank for a very short post that I clearly did not dedicate much time on -- perhaps I may see it as a way to bury #982 (which did cast some shadows over Way) feigning an honest mistake (however, it could just be genuine kindness. If that's the case, please forgive my slander. If you're innocent I have much to apologize to you anyway when game's over). And it may be remarked that #980 is the only post from anyone other than Baron (in #1048) explicitly leaving the possibility open for Red not being town after the claim.

If you're town Brick, please don't be too mad with me. I'm sorry. If you have a Hellhound case, I would be gald to hear it.

[biancospino]

And that said, I'm heading to bed. Please don't end the game by morning :/

[biancospino]

I wanted to lim BBT, simple as that. They were the scummiest in my eyes at that point.
Besides, you were on a townie wagon too (that of Baron); now, hh wasn't, and in fact was not on any wagon at all at the day's end. Do you think there's relevance to it?

[biancospino]

I am happy to lim Baron.

My thinking is that WS is NK’d. Leaving hellhound and Bianco. I would then in all likelihood have to vote Bianco. Can’t get away from Hellhounds D1 play. If he turns out to be scum then it’s a game well played.

Anyways, right now I intend on voting for HH. Will wait to hear from them first.

Question for Brick; you did quite plateally changed your mind during the night. Why?

[biancospino]

On post 1119; That is part of the reasoning why I've cased you and not hh. From the moment the scum decided to bus, for whatever reason, I strongly believe they should have began planning ahead since the only way they could win would be to get to ELo. And as you say, hh didn't appear to do anything of the sort.

That may mean, on the opposite hand, that they just tried to remain hidden in the shadows and hope. This may meld with the fact they did not vote anyone at the end of D2, but I idk, I feel that would not have necessarily be optimal.

(Btw, I see how me making this argument is treading on thin ice, as I did indeed participated pushed the BBT wagon a bit, and hammered Baron. But eh.)

On #1120; by HH I presume you mean hh. You may be correct in that, if hh was really 100% convinced there is only one way he could. I still found it bizarre how he would have allowed the game to progress to ELo with this composition after having stated so, but perhaps he did not think a double conftown would appear D2 and then I rekon there wasn't much to do differently

(On that note, cactus NK only make sense, from hh pow, as a WIFOM tactic. May be?)

[biancospino]

I will not quickhammer.

[biancospino]

Oh, sorry, lost a lot of p-edits...

[biancospino]

If Bianco doesn’t swoop in and hammer because she is scum, then she is obviously town.

In which case the game just got hard for Bianco as HH will vote me leaving you with the deciding vote. Good luck Bianco, I hope you see the light.

Yes. Fuck. I did not expect it to go down this way. I need to see hh's post. And I need to do lots of reflection.

[biancospino]

Ok. @Brick, just go ahead and vote hh back, since there is no point in not doing that now.

I need to meditate; and probably to ask questions when I will be able to. It's a somewhat heavy responsibility here; I hope I'll make the right choice.

[biancospino]

To counter HH though, it doesn’t make sense that I would openly declare Bianco as my scum at the end of D3. Then at D4 start she accuses me so my natural reaction is to shift my vote to HH? Why is that logical?

That's an interesting point. If Brick!scum voted me, then they would have a 50% EV unless we assume some bias in hh. On the other hand, by voting hh, then their EV lowers, since hh!town needs to vote back regardless of his alignment and then I have signaled a bias against Brick (so presumably I would vote Brick with a chance greater than 50%). This would imply that voting thusly was against win condition for a scum.
@Hellhound, thoughts on this? Do you think it may be WIFOM?

[biancospino]

Oh, I will have fun playing hanging judge. Just I'm not doing so until I'm back home, besides maybe asking some little things

[biancospino]

D3 was over in what, 24 hours? Nobody really contributed anything of value that day, other than you've both come out D4 with different opinions/vote choices the end of D3 than you stated, which is weird.

Can you clarify what you mean? I already had stated end D3 that I would have to vote Brick if they were intent on voting me. I don't see how I was incoherent between days 3 and 4 by casing Brick this morning

[biancospino]

Expected Value. I mean the probability of winning

[biancospino]

If you!scum vote me, you win if hh votes me too, which is a coin toss.
If you!scum vote hh, you have in your pow a probability of less than 50%, since I signaled willingness to vote you (that willingness is not as solid now, btw) and then hh would hammer.

[biancospino]

VOTE: CCGeek

E-1

NOBODY SHOULD HAMMER WITHOUT STATING THEIR INTENTION TO DO SO FIRST

In case they are a PR. Give them an opportunity to claim.

That said, I would be happy to hammer in 24 hours should nothing change.

Did HH not do a lot of similar things then? Because, as you said, that is a lot of theory fluff from Bianco.

My read on bianco is based on their reactions to the fluff and the questions they asked. Nothing else they've done is scummy and, having moved on for some time from the fluff, I consider their posts to be town.

See, this post is one thing it's tripping me up, why would hh feel the need to state that? Surely a scum would want the wagon to end in a hammer, if it's a pr then better. Unless they tried to shop around for a pr claim to kill overnight, or to accrue town cred.
The justification to my tr is indeed flimsy, but...

You are right, I have doubts.

P-Edit: not if you are both town and convinced hh is scum. Then in your pow, voting me would yield a 0% EV

[biancospino]

(Do note that if I had actually voted you, you ought to vote me back as town regardless of your convictions, since if I was not scum town would have lost to a quickhammer.)

[biancospino]

What I need to understand now is if you were intentionally trying to gambit by doing something nonoptimal in an effort to make me conclude you could not possibly be scum. That would be somewhat subtle a gambit and not clearly worth it, and it would require you feigning ignorance when I pointed it out, so probably not? I feel like I'm losing some lucidity here

[biancospino]

Could you please tell me exactly why you did revoke your vote for hh the first time around?

[biancospino]

Yes, the d4 vote.

[biancospino]

Uh. But since he asked me to not hammer, surely his argument would have been that you were the scum. So whatever he would have said should not have had any relevance whatsoever on your read of him, and so surely the impending post was no reason for an unvote

[biancospino]

If you were so sure, why would it matter if I did quickhammer? If you were sure you voted scum, then surely you would be happy of me ending the charade prematurely?

P-E: you put your vote back when I prompted you to, though.

[biancospino]

Anyway, I believe I have made up my mind. I'll let any of you time until tomorrow, midday UTC+1 to say whatever you think may sway my judgement; it's possible I may interject with some questions, but may not. (My decision is not based just on today's play, to reassure Brick)

I will post a naked hammer on the end of this grace period. Since I like suspense, and I'm feeling a little mean, I'm not telling who I'm going to vote till then.

[biancospino]

Time to put the black cap on.

VOTE: Hellhound1

One last request, please don't reveal your alignment before the official flip comes. It's more suspenseful this way.

[biancospino]

Some notes.
Hellhound, it's not true you had multiple wagons to jump to. The Chaz wagon was not born yet when you proclaimed CCG & HH to be scum buddies, and after that you would lose face by switching.

Brick, the things that in the end made me make this decisoon is actually your game d4. Specifically, in your case against hh you made a fault of logic I don't think a scum would have done. Part of what you said makes no sense because Mafia has daytalk.

Congratulations to Brick in all cases, game well played.
If we lost, my deeper apologies to Hellhound, but I did what I though was right.

[biancospino]

Some notes.
Hellhound, it's not true you had multiple wagons to jump to. The Chaz wagon was not born yet when you proclaimed CCG & HH to be scum buddies, and after that you would lose face by switching.

Brick, the things that in the end made me make this decisoon is actually your game d4. Specifically, in your case against hh you made a fault of logic I don't think a scum would have done. Part of what you said makes no sense because Mafia has daytalk.

Congratulations to Brick in all cases, game well played.
If we lost, my deeper apologies to Hellhound, but I did what I though was right.

[biancospino]

Shit, I double posted

[biancospino]

I always be starting pages

It's only been three times, but you are indeed the player who did that the most times so far

There should be a bonus star at the end for this kind of thing

But hey, I believe I won the bonus star. Unless it's Red's, I have not actually checked

[biancospino]

I asked you not to reveal your alignment :/

[biancospino]

Anyway, a lot of things I said D4 were lies. Bonus points if you can point to them

[biancospino]

See, you said that the pr thing was a nudge ti ccg, and then the vote was saying that "I tried to save you, but now you're done". However, since mafia has daytalk, if hh wanted a fakeclaim he would have said so to ccg in the mafia pt

[biancospino]

Sorry B, I genuinely feel so bad because you did ask

Not gonna lie, it was a long night waiting in suspense! I didn’t want to let on how much suspense you had me in.

Hey, no worries

[biancospino]

Ah, and I want to let you in a little secret. My case against you this morning was not true. It was supposed to be a trap to hh, I hoped he would jump immediately to vote you, which would have confirmed in my mind he was scum. Unfortunately, you did react sooner so that didn't happen

[biancospino]

I know hh said he suspected WS of being a PR, so firstly want to know if it’s true? And if he did suspect, why not NK him and do cactus instead?

Yeah, that is a proper mindscrew. The only thing it comes to my mind is that killong cactus seemed to be particularly disadvantageous to hh, so this death would prove his innocence.

[biancospino]

VOTE: RH

He's lurking, let's put some pressure on this slot.

(In all seriousness though, big thanks to RH and Alianna for hosting the game for us.)

[biancospino]

gg everyone, and thanks to the mod team.
I really look forward to read the PTs, especially the Mafia one. There are still some facets of D1 that kind of baffles me.

[biancospino]

Also, no redactions to my Notes PT, and it can be made public.
Just it's extremely barren, like 5 posts total, so idk of much of interest it may be

[biancospino]

Insofar we wait for redactions, can we get the dead PT?