Newbie 764 - Game Over

[Infinis]

OMGUS

vote: Korts

unvote

vote Kairyuu

hate double U words

[Infinis]

Unvote

Game on. I think the random number gen thing is a null tell. Yes it is an easy excuse to cover a semi-serious vote, but it can be taken at face value just as easily

[Infinis]

Why did you unvote Kairyuu, Infinis? Your comment attached to the unvote doesn't explain it, it seems to say more that you disagree with the stance Kairyuu took to Chaos40's first vote.

I think I can now understand Korts's objection to Kairyuu's word "random" from post 25, though I still find the difference in nuance to be extremely small. (the weight of the feeling he originally expressed was "I hatehatehate when somebody states that their "random" vote is random", which I guess puzzled me a bit, but maybe accents are needed to get reactions?)
...

I random voted and now since we're into the serious phase of talking, I Unvoted. I was stating my opinion of the validity of a tell of using a random number to vote other than some purely silly reason.

[Infinis]

Also, I'm not unvoting yet. It seems to me that the RVS is all the more silly if everyone pulls their votes at first sight of serious discussion. I looked at a couple of games and now I see it's not uncommon day 1 culture. Wouldn't the votes mean a bit more and be a little more likely to trigger some reactions if they didn't evaporate so easily? I know we have now some material already but I what's the benefit of unvoting if you don't want to change you're vote yet? That's kind of why I questioned you earlier, Infinis, seemed to me like you were eager to unvote which could have some implications...

Eager to unvote...arr you serious I understand the need for jump starting the conversations but suspicion for terminating my random phase Vote and its timing this early in the day is preposterous. Are you intentionally shotgun style accusing many to later attack your accusers as OMGUS voters?

[Infinis]

I'm just a wee bit taken aback by the ?wall of text? posts that have been dropped. It feels like watching the Executor fly by

Anyway, I am looking into this Slip business, but before I do a reread of those behemoth posts, let me clear things up in my mind.

1. KvC and KvK ploy. Kai was setting up null tell situation vs. an unrealistic situation in order to fish out scum, (not necessarily in that order).

2. Kai deemed it a success because now we have the Slip and proof of theory?

3. Both IC's are central to this melee.

4. Semantics were argued for quite awhile. Better yet delineation of terminology. Random vs. Arbitrary. Or Implicit randomness vs. Implied randomness

I believe that w/o examining the Slip the premise was flawed. Too much err..gaming the mod is it? Thinking that both IC's cannot be scum and therefore set forth a scenario that is workable grounds for a trap is taking too much for granted. For all we know, this could be the ultimate distraction. The scum sacrifice one of their own in order for the other(s) to sail to victory suspicion free, that is without the Slip. The town was leaning in one direction in the created debate IIRC. Maybe the town wasn't meant to go that way and hence Kai was quick dissolve it. But that would contradict the idea of scum sacrificing the other for safety and leads one to think he was protecting a scum buddy. In any event the main issue is the Slip, and after a reread I'll try to speak to that.

[Infinis]

This is exactly true Ojanen. The problem is that people like to get it into their heads quite often that the ICs working together on anything automatically makes them scumbuddies, when the likelyhood of that actually being the case is only 2.78%. It isn't meant as a defense of anything, only to point out a problem with Infinis's automatic assumption.

I was so engrossed with huge posts I missed this little nugget of misrepresentation. Automatic assumption? Of what that the IC's are scum buddies? I presented it as a scenario, yes, but not my definitive point of view.

I found it odd how you chose someone for your trap, when you could have no way of knowing who is scum and who is not. In fact, you are guilty of exonerating both IC's: Yourself, because no one claims scum and Korts because of his use in your trap.

As to the math of both IC's or any two players randomly selected, being scum is irrefutable. However what you did is not the same.

As a townie, not knowing anything else and looking in on the scenario you've presented, we see that there is 2/8 or 1/4 chance that a person picked at random is scum and a 1/7 chance that the scum is picked randomly from the remaining players. 1/4 * 1/7 = 3.57% better but not good odds. But can we increase the odds? Of course, this townie player assumes the good intentions of the scenario creator, therefore giving 2/7 chance that the first person picked at random is scum while the chances that the second person picked is 1/6 as scum. Therefore 2/7 * 1/6 = 4.76% better still! However shockingly slim chances.

Let's assume you are scum, would you risk losing a team member in order to sail all the way to the endgame? Perhaps. Would you chose two townies to guarantee a scum favorable lynch? More likely.

I am not saying you are scum, what I am suggesting is that the trap you so carefully crafted has a fatal flaw. The assumption that even with a bad argument against them, the second accused player is not scum. You have no way of confirming that.

I can see your reasoning behind Sando's wagon, but he's acquitted himself quite well. Are first impressions more important than well reasoned argument? Honestly slogging through the huge ?PBPA?, is that right, is rough going. But hopefully after a more thorough reread I will find that Sando's arguments may be strong or they may be weak. I however am not in a rush to lynch him based on a flawed trap. If upon reread, I find the results satisfactory then the flawed setup can be ignored, ends justified the means.

As an aside the trap scenario is quite an interesting teaching moment, I hope to learn from it.

[Infinis]

I'll try and get something comprehensive later, but it's my birthday today, I might not have time for a day or 2.

Regarding the maths, Inifinis does have a point in that you need to work out the 'random 2' using 8 players instead of 9. Obviously you're not going to include yourself in that. So the chances of picking any 2 people completely randomly and them being scum are: 2/8 x 1/7 = 3.57%

However, i was thinking, and this was in relation to Kai's gambit, what are the chances that he randomly picked 2 people and 1 or both were scum? I haven't done maths in a while, but it would seem to be 1-(6/8 x 5/7) = 46.43% chance that of the 2 people you randomly pick, 1 or both will be scum.

Infinis did tend to falter off after he got 3.57% and started bringing in completely arbitrary numbers, which could be him trying to 'force' the numbers to give him the result that he wants. Seems a bit dodgy, but I also think Kai's case against him is pretty forced.

I'll try and post more later, some more relevant stuff, but at least a few more people are talking, which is good. And welcome Millar

Happy birthday Sando! and Bravo! Your Math seems to be dead on.

As I said in my post, I was just looking at the gambit itself not the success or fail of it. The numbers should never dictate your actions. Kai got a read he used it and that's that. Justifying or disproving the gambit with numbers just leads you into posts like my previous one.

I think the flip flopping on your vote Kai should be noted. I guess you don't FoS anyone? Straight to vote?

I defended myself against a misrep. If you thought it little so be it, but I thought it was a good launching point for my discussion of the gambit. OMGUS voting me, really... as an IC?

I have to take you at face value. You like aggressive play and sometimes end up flailing. I am still pondering scum versus town.

As to the others, I guess looking at Sando and Japles has been pushed so a reread sometime this weekend will be in order. Sadly I havent had the energy to hack through everything that has been said, I skimmed through it and the gambit was where I decided to begin since I was attacking the gambit itself. The gambit cannot exist in a vacuum, we have to look at the one running the gambit and the caught person.

@Kai In the end as I said this may be moot and you were correct in your reads.

[Infinis]

Reread #1 accomplished.

My initial reaction is that Sando and Kai are not in some kind of gambit. As for any other conclusions, the waters are muddy and the fence is quite a good seat to try and sort things out from. However I feel Kai has made some good points towards play. He has continually prompted the town for discussion, which is always good. Unfortunately the jumping around of his vote seems noncommittal just as bad as the fence sitting he accuses me of.
@kai Yes flail is too strong a word for your vote changing.
Kai's case against Sando is good, not manipulative. Sando's defense and Kai's counterattack need a second reread.

So to my vote, three nothing posts in the past 8 days?

Vote: korts

And finally, I have to recover from the term "subjective math". Wow just wow. You have to assume that the voter is town, since a scum knows his scum buddies and has no need to guess who is scum.

Let's clear it up now since Ill be gone for the weekend, mostly.

Fact: 9 players
Fact: 2 scum in that group
Axiom: Each player can vote for any of the eight other players. (i dont know the rules about self voting)
Fact: Scum know who their buddy is, therefore no scum hunting for them

A townie has 6 possible town player votes out of the 8 players remaining
Therefore, 6/8 or 75% chance that the townie does not find scum on his first pick.

We eliminate this first voted player from the players selection pool, so we have 7 choices left. Therefore, 5/7 or ~=71% chance that the townie does not find scum with his second pick.

We are looking at the totality of the events. (bad phrasing) Better yet is the roulette analogy. If red has come up on the last 100 spins what is the chance the next spin is red assuming the wheel has no green zeros? 50%. What is the chance that red is spun 101 times? 2000000:1

.75 x .71 = .5325 or 53% two random picks by a townie are both not scum, which as pointed out and 1 - .53 = 47% chance that at least a single scum is chosen.

Anyway the point I was trying to make has long been lost. You said I accused you of bussing a scum buddy,(yes the chance both IC's being scum is slim, but it is a possibility nonetheless). I responded that I did no such thing and that you exonerated another player with little to go on, in order to condemn another. I agree it was minor but this is day 1 and we have little to go on. I will look at the case(s) made against who and by whom. I believe that with the arguments made to date, we won't need anymore maths.

And I too have a plan, let's see where it goes.

[Infinis]

@Korts: Hmm. So giving a reason such as "because West Wing is awesome" amounts to more than a random vote, and explicitly stating that it is random is somehow different than using a reason such as that?

Personally, the random phase bothers me, especially if it last for an overly long time (and I'm very impatient). I participate because it's the 'in' thing to do, and somewhat amusing, but I will generally try to cut it off as quickly as possible.

@Chaos:

Once the game progresses and discussion develops I will have more solid arguments and evidence to use as a basis.

Any reason you can't try to get the discussion going yourself? Why is it that you need to wait for other people to start the discussion.

The beginning of the now defunct gambit. IN hindsight both ends are garbage. In fact if I was forced to decide which is scummier I'd say the attack on Korts, for the random number problem, which I believe is a null tell.

@Korts:

It's not the fact that Kairyuu's vote was arbitrary that bugs me. It's the fact that he explicitly stated that it's random, pre-emptively defending against any fake cases that might be built on it and giving him another reason to hop off the wagon in case it builds up.

I wonder, does the fact that it has become a serious vote since I made it change your opinion of it? As it stands, I didn't like Chaos' response. He backtracked a good deal when I questioned him, and I find that suspicious. So yeah, the vote is serious.

If Kairyuu is scum, Chaos is more likely as well--random voting a scumpartner is not unheard of by far, and with the attempt at denying any real responsibility for the vote I smell distancing.

It's a valid strategy, but quite a foolish one to use in a Newbie game. When an IC votes a Newbie partner, said partner is going to feel rather more pressured than if anyone else voted them; therefore making them much more likely to slip up and get lynched.

I would consider it poor form.

(Note that this percieved connection is only valid if one of the two turn scum, with it being more valid if Kairyuu is the one that turns scum.)

This is true of all distancing tells.

@all: If you haven't already, please comment on this minor flare-up between myself and Korts.

My underline. Where did this reasoning come from? It didn't hold water so I dismissed your @all request

@Sando:

@kairyuu, I actually read your last IC game, and the game you referenced it from, the gambit was pretty interesting. I did love how you caught out the D1 Goon. When i saw you were IC in this game, I was tossing around in my head trying to work out how to respond to it if you did it here.

It was quite a fun play to make. I was disappointed that people didn't like it much.

The interesting thing, is that this quote paints you as rather scummy in my eyes. You claim to have read the game in question, where there were several townies played it correctly, and you saw my and Albert's comments on that matter. Why then, would you need to work out how to respond if you were town? Ironically, that is almost exactly the description that Adel, from the time MoS came up with it, gave when linking to the game in MD.

I'd be seriously considering that he was using the last game as an example of how good it is for a townie to do while secretly being scum and trying it from the other side.

Heh. I don't even need to make the gambit to catch scum with it. Why would I do it as scum when I made the specific claim that I would not take a risk like that in a Newbie game? When I am scum I try to keep the scumteam intact (as Korts can attest to) as long as physically possible, and throwing myself into a majorly risky situation on page 1 when my partner is probably a new player is very much against my playstyle.

I think you've slipped up friend.

He was also sort of testing it in that game as far as i recall, so i figure he might want to test doing it as scum at some point.

He also said it was something to be used in moderation, so if he did it 2 in 2 newbie games, I'd have to think he was trying something different the second time, which would mean he was doing it as either a scum or as the doctor.

My above point remains valid.

@all: Time to reveal my plan, as it has served its purpose as well as it can right now.

My case on Chaos is utter crap in my eyes.

unvote

I had a twofold goal in mind when making my posts at/about Korts and Chaos:

1. Korts was a decoy. I specifically mentioned that I had a plan involving getting people to comment on our debate so that the scum would "see through" that issue, and react in the way I would expect of a townie; that is, they would agree with me. Based on that, I determined that Sando was quite possibly scum buddying up to me. However, this was the weak part of my gambit, because I can easily see townies buddying up to an IC.

What actually forms the divide between myself and Korts in this case is the fact that I was deliberately acting mildly scummy to get Korts to criticize me (of course, the 'random vote' issue was unintentional, but it served as a good starting point). Someone paying attention to that, and to what Korts was saying, would, as a townie (not 100%, but my estimate is that it's better than 60%) side with Korts and find me scummy, possibly even enough for a vote. A scum, on the other hand, would probably be more focused on the fact that I had a decent case on an easy townie target, and would side with me in order to have that route available to them in the event that the wagon gained steam.

2. My second, and main, part of the gambit was my case on Chaos. His unvote was a null tell in my mind (it could be scummy for the reasons I mentioned, but when he defended himself I got the impression of him being town, so I ran with it). He has defended himself rather well, and looks decently pro-town in my eyes. Sando however, fell right into my trap, establishing himself as backing me against Korts as well as Chaos, the exact behavior I was looking for.

vote: Sando

Given further developments, Japles looks like a townie to me, so does Chaos, Ojanen, and Korts. Sando is likely scum based on the above.

Here is the explanation for springing the "trap" early and some metagame arguments from a previous game. Funny the first person you exonerate is Japles, with the obvious escape clause at the beginning of the sentence

.

@Korts:

Korts' addendum to Kai's Lesson 1: There are multiple schools of thought; full transparency of motives is a valid stance as well, since if you state all your thoughts and the processes leading up to your decisions it will be easier for town to read you, any flaws in logic will be remedied faster, and your thoughts may evoke others to find important clues as well.

QFT. I'll add that to the list for games from now on (and I may even make a wiki page eventually).

Kairyuu, you seem to not understand the term WIFOM. It is correctly applied only in a situation where there are two scenarios of scum and town and neither is more likely than the other.

That is the ideal WIFOM situation, and I understand it perfectly well. However, the number of situations where I have seen people call WIFOM on something that isn't too difficult to reason out far outnumber the cases of true WIFOM, so I feel the point is relevant, even if it isn't worded 100% properly.

Sparking discussion by becoming suspicious yourself is not something to be proud of. In fact, if this is done consciously, you are misleading and hurting town, and not actually spawning constructive discussion since you'e drawing suspicion to the only player you know the alignment of.

QFT. On the other hand, I endorse gambiting in all of its forms unless they are obviously flawed.

This is a very good point. And I can attest to Kai having played it safe in the past as scum in at least one game; but this is not a significant sample size, Kai, and I don't particularly like the implication that it is.

As far as I know it is the

only

sample available of any size. Large enough or not, it's all I have to work with, and I intend to use it.

To be honest, I don't particularly trust the result of your gambit, Kai, since it comes down to whether a particular player felt your arguments were stronger than mine, which opinion may be entirely independent of alignment. At best it is a minor implication toward Sando being scum.

Two-fold gambit. The point with you was minor. I thought I already mentioned that, but meh.

@Sando:

He got all sorts of responses, most of them negative, however he caught the scum because they expressed their lack of understanding of the gambit way too hard. They appealed to emotion rather than logic, scummy. (When i say 'they' I mean the first day scum, I don't remember the catch on the second day one, but it was a 'perfect' game).

Second day scum was a lurker who proved she was reading the thread but not posting. But that is neither here nor there. If you have a point in regurgitating all of this information then I expect to see it soon (note: I'm posting this as I go. I have merely skimmed the rest before now).

Now, my 'tell'. Kairyuu said quite a lot of things that game, i would REALLY recommend that if you wish to vote me over this that you read the thread, if nothing else it's interesting. I've linked it above, just read D1 and the end.

Explain this. Why do people need to meta me before voting you?

(Meta: To read previous games played by a player in order to get a feel for the way they play as scum and town in order to get a read on them in a current game)

Kairyuu, after being hounded for the gambit all game (more for using it in a newbie game than for it being a bad gambit), agreed not to use it again in a newbie game. Now we're deviating into hypotheticals, because i'm now talking about if he'd claimed doc this game.

First off, I agreed not to do it for awhile. I will probably try it again over the summer sometime.

Secondly, All this is is waffle. I see no actual explanation thus far.

If he'd claimed doc this game, he'd have been lying when he said that he wouldn't use it again in a newbie game, not a good start i would say.

But I didn't, so this is totally null.

Thinking meta, i'd have to wonder if he wasn't in fact trying the same gambit and was trying something new, ie not lying due to a technicality. If he did this, he was 1 of 2 things, the doc or a scum.

Really? Why? First off, why would I pull it as scum after having specifically mentioned when I first used it that using it as scum would be a stupid move and I wouldn't want to run the risk of ruining the game for my scumbuddy? Secondly (and this is a theory question that I would just like an answer to), why would I pull a gambit that attempts to draw the N1 kill as its main purpose if I were the actual doc? What pro-town purpose would it serve for me to say "kill me" to the scum when I have a potentially useful power role?

Why would you do it as Scum Kairyuu? For interests sake? To try it out, see how it goes? Since it worked so brilliantly the first time, why not try it out as scum? You're playing a game after all, the way to get better at it is to try new things.

I wouldn't. See above. Stop trying to discredit me.

Why would I have to work out how to respond to it? If you had done it in this game I would not have believed that you were a vanilla townie, simple as that. I would have worked off my belief that you were either the doc or scum. As a townie, I don't really want to be in the position of thinking some is either the doc or scum.

The gambit is

designed

to make you think I am the doc, and allows for people thinking I am scum. How this is any different than the way you would have played it if you were in that game, I am not seeing (especially considering that, while the gambit allows for me to be a vanilla, it relies on the scum believing that I am not).

OK. So after reading that entire post, all I got was that it was irrelevant waffle and a shot at my credibility. If this is part of your full case then you need to rethink it.

KvK was based around Korts complaint regarding Kairyuu 'random' voting. I personally think it is a very silly argument, but hey, it gets discussion going. It's all based on semantics in my opinion.

I like arguing semantics. It's fun to catch scum in a slip in their choice of wording. I'd post a link to a specific game, but it's ongoing.

And unless i misunderstood the question, i stand by this. In my view, Korts got 'angry' at Kairyuu for random voting when he was in fact arbitrarily voting. He also didn't like that Kairyuu seemingly made a big deal out of it. I think it was very semantic of Korts, although i felt that it promoted discussion, which is good.

I believe I've stated twice already now that the minor point of myself vs. Korts was merely an indicator light, and if I hadn't been looking elsewhere as well I would have probably ignored it for the most part.

I should point out that my 'taking your side' was purely on an argument regarding the semantics of random voting, it had nothing to do with you accusing Chaos, which i addressed in my next paragraph:

See above.

Note that i made sure to seperate these 2 things, you're now trying to tie them back together to make a fairly weak case.

My case is weak? They are two completely different points, and one I even

claimed

was not strong. This is Straw Man Argumentation. The fact that one point is weak does not mean that the argument is weak. This is a logical fallacy.

I agreed that there was some scumminess to Chaos's actions, although now that you've retracted them, I guess i now disagree with you. I still believe that his unvote was scummy, whether or not you say it is a scumtell or not.

Your case on Chaos was 100% taken from what I said. It isn't a matter of whether or not you agreed with me. It is more that you didn't even try to put your own spin on the case.

However, I did not feel that you had built a sufficient case on Chaos to make me change my vote from Japles to Chaos. I think my quoted text speaks for itself really, I saw your point regarding Chaos but I didn't think it merited a vote, still didn't even when I went through and pointed out why i thought it was scummy with a timeline of sorts.

One vote a successful bandwagon does not make. I am reasonably certain that, had others jumped on Chaos with votes, you would have been right there with them.

I just want to be clear, I seperated my answers between the KvK debate and KvC debate, i think you're taking my KvK answer and applying it to the KvC debate.

Nope. I addressed them separately, and your single accusation in this post (that my case is weak because one of my points was weak) is a straw man.

From this post all I got was more waffle and another attempt at an attack on my credibility, this time by calling my case weak and then just reiterating your own actions.

Why is this odd? Kairyuu got accused of being linked to Chaos because he voted for him. What does he do? He makes his vote 'serious'. He then says that it would be a silly thing to do in a newbie game, however, this is a quote from the 'doc' game that this blew up over:

I am protective of scumbuddies when I am scum. I would rather a perfect game than one where we squeak by with a single live member. I would consider random voting a scumbuddy in any game to be a stupid move, because it creates a connection that can be looked at later if one of you dies.

Now for the remainder of this point.

Posts 50 and 68 respectively in the game i linked. So Kairyuu has changed his mind and is advocating playing differently in this game when he said clearly in the other game that ICs should play hard. Also, while it is apparently a silly move, you also send a signal to your scumbuddy to not worry about the vote by saying that when an IC scumbuddy votes a newbie it puts pressure on them. This is pretty subtle in saying that he shouldn't feel pressured, but when combined with your previous comments, it seems like a nice way to look like you're pressuring him when you're not.

How does that even make logical sense? I mention it being bad play, and even site an example game, and that means that I am scum doing it? This is a

huge

reach for something that doesn't even make sense. Read the IC guide that Vel posted a link to in post 0. My role as an IC would trump my role as scum. If I were scum and doing that, telling people that it is bad play is terribly unethical, and I would deserve to get kicked from the game immediately and banned from ICing for teaching people wrong information just to get a win as scum.

Now i figure if i can start getting you to talk about a previous game, you'll screw up, and you did, i just didn't notice till now. You've changed your mind from 'don't treat newbies with kids gloves' to 'IC scum need to be careful not to put pressure on their partners in newbie games'. I think the reason you've changed your mind is because you're now scum.

First of all, repeating it does not make it true. Second of all, if you read all of my games in the order I played them you will notice major discrepancies among games of the same alignment. I am still developing a consistent playstyle. Either way, you didn't get me to do what you claim you did, and saying that you planned it all along is scummy as heck.

Wow, people start actually looking at Chaos in depth, and now the case is 'utter crap'. This is pure distancing, you lead the charge on your protege scum, then once you FORCE people to associate their vote on chaos with agreeing with you, you pull the rug out from under them, thereby destroying any scumhunting on chaos.

Firstly, distancing would be my actually trying to get him lynched, which I didn't do. Hell, I unvoted when I was still the only vote on him.

Secondly, distancing tells apply if, and only if, one of the two in question is dead. This has already been stated by Korts.

Then when i reply regarding the Kairyuu vs Korts debate, you attack me for my views on the Kairyuu vs Chaos.

That was kinda the point, which I mentioned when I voted you. This is IIoA (Information Instead of Analysis), which is what approximately 80% of these first 3 posts have been. It's one of Tarhalindur's Standard Tells that I mentioned earlier, and it seems to be an attempt to make it look like you are building a huge case against me when you are creating one or two points out of thin air and OMGUSing me.

You also say that i'm buddying up to an IC, yet the argument was between 2 ICs and you asked us to take sides... You deliberately manipulated someone (me) into getting the tag of buddying up to an IC, there was no way to avoid it.

Saying "I agree with Kairyuu/Korts in their debate" =/= taking my case against Chaos and spitting it back out almost verbatim as your own. Different scenarios even. I didn't

manipulate

you into doing anything. I predicted what a scum would likely do in a given situation, and you fit the description, so I voted you.

Not before your buddy can find something 'scummy' in my post though.

I respond to this, and Kairyuu takes over the 'scumhunting' for Chaos, that's nice of him, don't you think?

So because Chaos asks a question that relates in some way to what I later bring up, not only does he have to be my scumbuddy, but it has to have been a deliberate play on my part? Honestly, your points are coming out of nowhere, and they are illogical to the extreme.

Now, fine that he changes his mind, but it seems pretty oportunistic in light of everything else to jump on someone you previously thought was 'interesting, but not scummy'.

Think about it for a second and stop using straw men. What did I say about Chaos in the

very same

analysis post? That's right, that he was my top suspect for scum. The opinions mentioned in that post were made when I was still functioning under the gambit, and it was before you had walked into it to the point where I was confident enough to attack you.

This all feels like amazing distancing from Kairyuu, he didn't just vote on Chaos, he pulls his vote in such a way that noone else can really vote for Chaos. I still don't feel that Chaos has defended himself adequately, and Kairyuu's defence is

Vote Chaos all you like. Korts still finds him suspicious and I haven't said anything to him, have I? If you are going to make generalizations then make sure they are valid. Plus, my point about distancing still stands.

His unvote was a null tell, but could have been scummy... And when he defended himself, he got the impression that he was town, that's some pretty good scumhunting Kairyuu, thanks for sticking to your convictions like the rulebook says we should.

An unvote after pressure could be scummy, certainly, a weak scumtell, but still scummy. However, his subsequent explanations did not seem scummy to me. Simple as that. I pressure people for reactions when I think that may be scum. Interesting to note is that you are trying to discredit me again with your mention of the rulebook.

On the matter of the rulebook though, it is by no means a complete guide to playing mafia. There are literally hundreds of ways to play, and trying to claim that because I do not play in the style of a rulebook that I haven't glanced at in about 8 months is nothing but a weak attempt to make me look bad.

Kairyuu has distanced, changed his mind from his previous newbie game, and manipulated me into the tag of IC buddying. He's also effectively killed discussion regarding his previous 'suspect' based off his gut. All well and good to vote with your gut, don't destroy the possibility of us discussing it without looking scummy. Kairyuu, you're scum.

So I'm scum based on a case which has literally zero actual valid points? Sure thing. This is OMGUS dressed up with straw men, IIoA, and attacks on my credibility instead of actual scumtells. I am happy with my vote right where it is, and would not be adverse to lynching you right now.

Why the vote for Kairyuu, other than that he's scum? Well I'm convinced of Kairyuu, but I'm still not convinced that Japles isn't scum. The other reason that Kairyuu could be coming after me is that i refuse(d) to remove my vote from Japles. I think the most likely explanation is Kairyuu/Chaos as scum, but i don't discount the possibility of Kairyuu/Japles.

-facepalm-

More of the same.

So, in your 3 posts in rather rapid succession, you have posted almost nothing of value, and instead waffled on and on, and followed it up with logical fallacies, points that directly contradict things that I and other people have said, and attacks on my credibility. Forgive me if I don't see any point in your calling this a 'case.'

Moving on.

I've explained why it isn't OMGUS.

No, you pretty much proved that is was by doing something very similar to what I did myself D1 in the first game I was scum (Mini Theme 658: Facedown and Thirsty Mafia, the one I played with Korts) after getting a few votes on me. I waffled for awhile and then OMGUSed on of the people voting me. I got away with it by subverting the OMGUS call, but I'll not be fooled by my own trick.

When you started taking me out of context and i started feeling manipulated, I went back and reread the thread and some of the 'doc' thread, then i posted my thoughts. You forced me to respond to your accusations, in writing them i realised how manipulative you were being.

So in other words, when other people agreed with me you went back and read to try to make up a case against me that might shift the wagon to me. Not gonna work.

You were a lot more obvious with your manipulations in your last newbie game, and you seem to have changed a lot since then, both in actions and views. Considering you were vanilla then, that doesn't bode well for you being vanilla here.

I changed very little. I'm still pulling gambits whenever I see an opportunity and revealing them to the town. I'm still aggressively pushing my cases. And I'm still playing to catch the scum. The only reason that I didn't come right out with this one before I used it was because doing that would have invalidated it as a strategy by

telling the scum what I was looking for

.

Feel free to correct my view of OMGUS, you making a case against me where i felt manipulated and taken out of context, combined with me knowing that i'm townie, set me to looking at the person accusing me. I didn't think this is OMGUS, but i realise that you want people to think that's why I'm doing this, and i respect that, scum.

Already done. A note though. I am quite impressed by the way you are addressing me as 'scum' instead of by name now. It's quite a good intimidation tactic, and one I've used myself several times.

By the way, as an IC, how come that you know that a quick lynch is almost never good for town, you know i'm at L-2 (you just posted) and yet make no mention of it. Thanks for confirming my views on you.

I like quicklynches. As soon as I am confident that someone is scum I want them lynched so that I can move on to the next scum. It's the way I play, and it is reasonably effective (which, of course, you know, seeing as we lynched the scum roleblocker on page 8 and had a 24 hour D2 that ended the game in Newbie 750, which you seem to only want to cite when it serves your purposes). You can stop taking jabs at my credibility already. None of them have been valid, and I highly doubt that any will.

Kairyuu also didn't let it play out, he saw an oportunity with the doc game comment and went for it. I hadn't even voted for Chaos40 and i've 'fallen into his trap'. That's a pretty pathetic trap, if to fall into it you don't even need to vote for the bait (or even FOS for that matter)

More attacks on my credibility. This is getting pathetic. Pull the other one. It had bells on it.

Since I'm going to bed soon, and last time i did that 3 votes came up on me, and 3 more would be 1 more than needed to hammer, i think we should have the quick-lynch talk. I personally think that one reason Kairyuu didn't post a longer reply earlier was that he was hoping you'd quick-lynch and he wouldn't have to worry about the annoyance of being questioned by me.

See above.

The rest of that post is more IIoA and more attacks on my credibility. In regards to your point on quicklynches though:

@all: As a general rule, it is said that discussion is good for the town, and quickly ending the Day is good for the scum. That is based on some playstyles. Others prefer methodical, swift Days, with a reasonably quick consensus lynch after some scumhunting. I am of that second group. As long as there is enough information for a lynch, I tend to want that lynch to happen. That is just my style, and other styles are perfectly valid as well.

@Ojanen:

@Kairyuu: Confirm vote: wasn't mentioned in the rules, what is it, a game mechanic or a rhetorical device for weight?

It essentially just means that I have been further convinced that my vote is in the right place. More of a rhetorical device than anything.

@all again: Whoooo. That took quite awhile. Have fun sorting through it all.

After this wall of text throwing every logic/debating term kai could find at Sando, I frankly was wondering where the real case was against Sando other than thinking he had only OMGUS and fallacies in his defense of Kai's attacks.

OK breathe, and Ill get back to business

[Infinis]

Let's get this thing started shall we?

@Infinis: One point to address from your last post.

The probability of both ICs being scum is extremely low, approximately 2.78% actually. This is determined through simple multiplication. The first IC has a 2/9 chance, and assuming that happens, the second one has a 1/8 chance, making 2/72, or 1/36. or 2.777777778%.

However, that isn't really the issue here.

@Sando: You'll have to bear with me on this. I'm going to condense my argument as much as possible for the sake of time.

1. I no longer feel as strongly that you are scum. You remind me very much of a friend of mine when he first started playing here (playername: Isacc). I think that it is much more likely that you are newbie town pushing back against what you see as suspicion that could only come from scum (the "since I'm town, people who attack me must be scum" point of view). This is a behavior that you will need to move out of. My following points will exemplify the problems with your argument.

2. As soon as you were accused, you immediately went back to dig up anything you could find on your accuser. This is a very bad idea, because it opens you up to all sorts of OMGUS accusations, regardless of whether or not your case is solid. If it isn't, (the situation you are in) then it is even

more

likely that you will be accused of it, because it looks like you are merely fabricating a desperate counterattack to allay suspicion.

3. Your original defense was a load of waffle. You didn't make any serious accusations until your third response post. Instead, your posts were just filler to take up space and make it look like you had a long case, even though you didn't.

4. Instead of actively trying to disprove my case, you came at my credibility as an IC, which irritated me to no end. If you cannot logically disprove my

points

, then resorting to painting me as an unethical player is

not

the way to go. Prove me scummy, not incompetent.

5. When I responded to your points, you took what I said, and you warped it to suit your own agenda. You quoted me, and then accused me of doing things that don't even make sense, and would be far too complicated for me to attempt without making major mistakes (assuming that I am scum, which I am not).

6. When I brought this up, you turned around and accused

me

of the exact same thing. This is terrible OMGUS, and just shows that you are getting backed into a corner and are being forced into a completely defensive, reactionary posture.

All of those are common newbie town mistakes that lead to a high D1 town lynch rate in Newbie games.

And yes, I know that I am changing my position a lot this game. I wasn't able to polarize it to my liking, so I'm still working on my final reads.

@all: Picking up a prod, but not responding to it by posting in thread is a scumtell in my book. I've seen scum do it too many times to ignore it.

vote: Josh Lyman

FOS: Bekkatha

Anything else I forgot to comment on gets to wait until tomorrow, as I'm still busy.

This post bothers me 1. Math is Math but to exhonerate someone based on a low probability, which I disprove later, is a little wonky but hey not scummy in my book.

However the condensed argument thing against Sando is scummy. You never point out exactly what you're refering to. Linking the quote and then misrep of it by Sando. It was just a speech, a good one mind you, very convincing, but your gambit had devolved into who's a better player, I am so I'm right. When it should have attacked actual quotes from your opponent.

I still dont understand the Josh vote here. After all that effort on Sando, you go for Josh?

@Sando:

1: Am I right in assuming this is only a newbie mistake if you're not scum?

No. The vast majority of that post was written in my role as an IC, not my role as a player. The things I accused you of are not up for discussion. You did them, and that is that. They are scumtells, but I believe you are somewhat more likely town backed against a wall and making mistakes because you are new. I will not comment further on my list.

You're change from voting me to JL and Bekkatha I can understand from a townies POV, but not from the POV of someone who advocates a quicklynch.

You are really stuck on this aren't you. Everything anyone does in this game is entirely situational. In this case I saw a stronger tell coming from a different source. That tell has been dealt with to my satisfaction now, so I am moving on again.

You wanted a quicklynch, despite knowing that there were at least 2/3 people who had failed to respond, has your view on quicklynches changed?

Nope. Does switching my vote imply that? How so? I expect full explanations to both of these questions.

If not, since you now think i'm a newb townie, wouldn't it have a been a mistake to quicklynch me?

Townies get lynched. It happens. If we had lynched you, and you had flipped town, I would be disappointed, but not overly distraught. We have 3 strikes after all.

This is especially true given that you guys put me at L-1 without requiring a response from the 2 people you're now accusing.

I am not going to just let the game stall because some people don't feel like posting. A lagging game is far worse than one where we accidentally lynch a townie D1.

Why did you think you had caught scum before they had voted for your bait, or FOS'd him even?

Take a look back at my explanation of it, and point out to me, with quotes, where I ever said that the point was to draw a vote onto my bait. If you can do that, I'll cede my point. But, you won't find it, because that was not the goal. The goal, as I said

repeatedly

was to catch someone who was acting in a specific way which would be conducive to scum angling for an easy lynch. You did that, so I sprung the trap. If I was right then I am going to regret backing off of you, but if I am wrong as I now think, there is very little lost, and it got discussion rocketing off.

Besides, it is a gambit based on

behavior

. There is no way in hell someone can expect it to be 100% accurate. If I can catch 1 scum every three times I try a gambit like that, I will be happy, because it is not an extremely powerful gambit. It got you into a debate with me though, which allowed me to read you much better. I'm calling it a success, regardless of whether or not you liked it.

Given that you claim to be a townie, and by your own admission you looked scummy, why wouldn't a scum take the opportunity to accuse you instead of Chaos or Korts?

That was the main problem with my gambit when I made it. I didn't take that into account, and I had to adjust to the Chaos angle to strengthen it (yes, this means the final product is a weird hodgepodge of 3 different gambits).

You said that scum would jump on Korts because he was a townie, how did you know he was a townie?

Wanna show me where I said that Korts was a townie. I said I believed him to be probably town based on my initial reads, so I used him as my debate opponent.

He voted for me after I lumped him in with you and Chaos as a passing reference, considering your crusade against OMGUS, do you think this was OMGUS from him?

What Japles did was not OMGUS. You lumped me in with him on page 3. He made 2 posts between the point where you accused him and the one where he voted you. OMGUS would imply that as soon as you accused him (more like voted, because that is what OMGUS is more often associated with) he went and built a case against you that culminated in a vote. He addressed your points, but didn't vote you until later. That is not OMGUS. His reason was crap and utterly destroyed my town read on him, but I prefer to work on one front at a time.

What do you think about him putting someone at L-1 with no reasoning given?

He gave a reason, but the reason was crap. I think he is suspicious, but not enough to warrant my vote or attention right now.

What do you think about his failure to actually address any of the problems that I've brought up, and just vote for me?

Dunno. Wasn't paying attention to that debate. He should have addressed you points, but I don't know the exact situation (and am too lazy to go look it up right now) so I can't comment fully.

I said you didn't respond to some of my points, not that you didn't respond to some of my posts.

That's what I said:

Secondly, it has not been the length of your posts that has kept me from responding to all of your points

And I'm changing my style because it doesn't seem to be working. People aren't responding to what I'm saying regarding you and others, and people like Japles are getting away with brushing huge posts off with no regard. I don't know if it's the others in the game, or if it's because of my style, but if I try a different style and nothing changes, at least I know it's the people, and not my style. This is a learning game, I think it's the time to try out some things to see what is most effective.

Suit yourself. I like the long posts, and except for one time I've gone through and responded to everything.

@Infinis:

I was so engrossed with huge posts I missed this little nugget of misrepresentation. Automatic assumption? Of what that the IC's are scum buddies? I presented it as a scenario, yes, but not my definitive point of view.

If you present the scenario then you are making an accusation. If you are not making a direct accusation, then you are trying to see if anyone else takes it up and pushes it.

I found it odd how you chose someone for your trap, when you could have no way of knowing who is scum and who is not. In fact, you are guilty of exonerating both IC's: Yourself, because no one claims scum and Korts because of his use in your trap.

How have I exonerated anyone? Is it D2, and am I a claimed cop with an innocent on Korts? If not, then I have not done anything but express my opinion on a fellow player.

As to the math of both IC's or any two players randomly selected, being scum is irrefutable. However what you did is not the same.

Yes it is. I took the setup

without any player involvement

, which is what the point of my explanation was, and I analyzed it mathematically.

As a townie, not knowing anything else and looking in on the scenario you've presented, we see that there is 2/8 or 1/4 chance that a person picked at random is scum and a 1/7 chance that the scum is picked randomly from the remaining players. 1/4 * 1/7 = 3.57% better but not good odds.

You cannot look at it from an in-game perspective. That skews the numbers, because it factors in alignment of the player making the argument, which is ambiguous to everyone else, and therefore makes the numbers subjective and therefore wrong.

But can we increase the odds?

Why are you trying to raise random odds? Is there a purpose for you to want to prove it likely that two people are scum based on random chance?

Of course, this townie player assumes the good intentions of the scenario creator, therefore giving 2/7 chance that the first person picked at random is scum while the chances that the second person picked is 1/6 as scum. Therefore 2/7 * 1/6 = 4.76% better still! However shockingly slim chances.

Hypocrite. You accused me of 'exonerating' Korts by using him in my gambit, but yet you then claim that people should trust you because you are making a scenario involving random numbers? Are you serious?

Let's assume you are scum, would you risk losing a team member in order to sail all the way to the endgame? Perhaps. Would you chose two townies to guarantee a scum favorable lynch? More likely.

No to the first, and yes to the second. However, I don't like to gambit as scum, as I have stated over and over again. It is too risky, and puts my teammates in a terrible position if it fails.

I am not saying you are scum, what I am suggesting is that the trap you so carefully crafted has a fatal flaw. The assumption that even with a bad argument against them, the second accused player is not scum. You have no way of confirming that.

Well duh. I never said that my word was law. I expressed my reads, and nothing more. If Chaos or Korts is scum, then that is just one more uncontrollable variable intrinsic to gambiting. There is no surefire solution for catching scum. If there was, then this wouldn't be much of a game, now would it?

I can see your reasoning behind Sando's wagon, but he's acquitted himself quite well.

No. No he hasn't. his defenses have been weak and scummy, and if this was anything but a newbie game I would still be pushing.

Are first impressions more important than well reasoned argument?

Nope. Can you point to where I said they were?

Honestly slogging through the huge ?PBPA?, is that right, is rough going. But hopefully after a more thorough reread I will find that Sando's arguments may be strong or they may be weak.

PBPA is correct. Also, this is wishy-washy. Don't comment on a situation without reading it first. Also, why is it that you claim that Sando has acquitted himself when you haven't read his responses to my accusations?

I however am not in a rush to lynch him based on a flawed trap. If upon reread, I find the results satisfactory then the flawed setup can be ignored, ends justified the means.

More wishy-washy-ness.

OK. Let's analyze this. I made a completely unimportant post that mentioned you in passing, but focused on the pure math of the setup. It didn't even contain an accusation. However, as soon as you saw it, you got up in arms and completely overdefensive. I don't like how that post reads.

unvote

and

vote: Infinis

Hypocritical behavior and overdefensiveness is stronger than lurking.

@all: Based on recent developments, Bekkatha's lurking was a null tell, as she flaked instead of sticking around but not posting.

Also, Josh's is too now, since he has given an out of game reason for not being around, which I accept.

This post is much better, I disagree with your opinions but at least your responding directly. And yet a third vote is strange to me. It seems that whenever someone has something to say about you, you decide its time to dig up everything you can about them, the exact same thing you accused Sando of doing!

I would go on and go post by post but I;d have to spoilerize the rest (which I usually dont click myself, or drop more enormous posts.

As for Sando...

[Infinis]

Ok, there are 2 issues here, and i brought them up in one of my posts (#41), and that is the argument between Korts vs Kairyuu and Kairyuu vs Chaos, i shall from now on refer to these as KvK and KvC.

What are they about, in my opinion?

KvK was based around Korts complaint regarding Kairyuu 'random' voting. I personally think it is a very silly argument, but hey, it gets discussion going. It's all based on semantics in my opinion.

Also, everyone should please take a stance on the debate between myself and Korts. It's for something I'm working on.

Kairyuu asked for our opinions on the debate between him and Korts. I provided it:

Re: Kairyuu vs Korts
I think it's fairly obvious that if you wanted me to declare for a 'side', then I'd be on Kairyuu's side. I don't think that Korts seems scummy, but he seems more scummy than Kairyuu if that counts for anything. I still think it's a pretty big stretch to get so offended, or at least seem to, over what amounts to semantics with words.

And unless i misunderstood the question, i stand by this. In my view, Korts got 'angry' at Kairyuu for random voting when he was in fact arbitrarily voting. He also didn't like that Kairyuu seemingly made a big deal out of it. I think it was very semantic of Korts, although i felt that it promoted discussion, which is good.

I should point out that my 'taking your side' was purely on an argument regarding the semantics of random voting, it had nothing to do with you accusing Chaos, which i addressed in my next paragraph:

Re: Kairyuu vs Korts
I think it's fairly obvious that if you wanted me to declare for a 'side', then I'd be on Kairyuu's side. I don't think that Korts seems scummy, but he seems more scummy than Kairyuu if that counts for anything. I still think it's a pretty big stretch to get so offended, or at least seem to, over what amounts to semantics with words.

Note that i made sure to seperate these 2 things, you're now trying to tie them back together to make a fairly weak case.

I agreed that there was some scumminess to Chaos's actions, although now that you've retracted them, I guess i now disagree with you. I still believe that his unvote was scummy, whether or not you say it is a scumtell or not.

However, I did not feel that you had built a sufficient case on Chaos to make me change my vote from Japles to Chaos. I think my quoted text speaks for itself really, I saw your point regarding Chaos but I didn't think it merited a vote, still didn't even when I went through and pointed out why i thought it was scummy with a timeline of sorts.

I just want to be clear, I seperated my answers between the KvK debate and KvC debate, i think you're taking my KvK answer and applying it to the KvC debate.

This to me acquitted Sando of my suspicion, for the most part. He wanted Japles then and he stuck by it. He defended himself well per this post. The rest of the posts of Sando v Kai from here on are metagame and parsing down the main argument into minute details that just served to muddy the waters. The only thing I gleaned was that it was too much work for scum buddies running a gambit

As for Sando's most recent post. I see your points against Kai but I think Kai was fixated on you and didn't intentionally ignore japles. Now was he actually that fixated to ignore your suspicions? We'll see how he responds to your post.

[Infinis]

GUYS

PLEASE TRY TO BE SUCCINT IN MAKING YOUR POINT

OTHERWISE I WILL STAY FOUR PAGES BEHIND FOR THE REST OF MY LIFE

I tried Korts, I really did. Sando requested more than me saying I thought he acquitted himself well against Kai and that they are not scumbudddies. I DID NOT WANT TO GO THROUGH THE WALLS OF TEXT THEY HAD PRODUCED TO DATE.

That said I thought Kai had been honest scum hunting with his "gambit" . I thought Sando had not made a "Slip" and that he had explained himself well. This was not satisfactory to either of them for some reason. Kai decided to look at me since I like Math, and Sando wanted me to discuss the case more to either one see if I'm scum buddies with Kai or two agree with him so we can start a wagon on Kai.

Now Kai votes me since because of the aforementioned Math and that Chaos never talked about me?

With three lurkers, we have 4 players who have contributed as of late and bear examining.

Kai clears Josh because of what? He wasn't around long enough? korts has R/L issues so he's clear? Kai gave up on Sando. So that leaves Ojanen, me, millar?

@kai I'm surprised you haven't attacked Ojanen for calling you out on your misrepping my first Math post. And most of his posts question your motives and action and the only response we have from you is basically -oops, you are right.

Ojanen has been gone for a week, so I'd like to here from him.

millar and josh have posted nothing of substance, millar voted the wagon that's it, no way to clear either of them. I agree though that all things being equal they are probably vanilla town, since they have not put any effort into the game.

I'm surprised that neither Sando nor Kai were NK'd. Which leads me to two trains of thought

1) Kai is scum and knows killing Sando or me would have resulted in a quick lynch for him

2) Neither Kai, Sando, nor myself are scum and the remaining scum wants us to kill each other off.

My korts vote was to see if anyone would bite and pile on korts. He had several non-posts, active lurking is it called?

I have more but i'll cut it here to see if japles gave away his scum buddy

Oh yeah, scream OMGUS al you want but

Vote: Kairyuu

[Infinis]

And you continue to post nothing

[Infinis]

I stand by my last post as

NOT being

OMGUS voting. I presented two scenarios. I went with the #1 since Sando and Ona have both made strong cases against you Kai.

My only problem with the case against you Kai is that you have been extremely vocal, forward and prominent. I wonder if you were too far invested into your real gambit as scum posing as scum hunting town, to try and stop Japles wagon. I'm weighing that gambit vs. honest scum hunting.

I wont expect a response since you're going to be away.

[Infinis]

...

@Infinis

@kai I'm surprised you haven't attacked Ojanen for calling you out on your misrepping my first Math post. And most of his posts question your motives and action and the only response we have from you is basically -oops, you are right.

Ojanen is easily the most townie person in the game at the moment, Kai would never attack her at this stage, whether or not he was scum. Given what Ojanen, and to a lesser extent I, have said about Kai’s links to Japles, an attack on Ojanen would basically sign his death warrant I think. It’s a null tell that Kai is leaving Ojanen alone, it’s what he’d do as either scum or town I feel. You trying to get Kai to comment on someone who is basically cleared as town seems pretty odd though...

Kai clears Josh because of what? He wasn't around long enough? korts has R/L issues so he's clear? Kai gave up on Sando. So that leaves Ojanen, me, millar?

Kai has posted his list of suspects, and added you on as an addendum. It was Korts/Millar with himself tacked on, as he knows he’s an obvious target.

I'm surprised that neither Sando nor Kai were NK'd. Which leads me to two trains of thought

1) Kai is scum and knows killing Sando or me would have resulted in a quick lynch for him

2) Neither Kai, Sando, nor myself are scum and the remaining scum wants us to kill each other off.

Kai was never going to be NK’d. I don’t even think there would be a WIFOM reason to kill him. If me and Ojanen please, we can almost certainly get Kai lynched today, and everyone knew that going into N1. There is no reason to NK Kai if you’re scum as anyone but Kai because of this, and Kai obviously wouldn’t NK himself. Any scum other than Kai would look at Ojanen/Kai/Sando and see that it's highly likely they can get a mislynch on Kai.

Option 1 is exactly why Kai wouldn’t have killed me. Playing logically, I would have expected Kai-scum to kill Ojanen, it would leave me as the only person really pushing a hard case on Kai. He's discredited much of my case, for good and bad reasons in my view, so getting rid of the other person attacking him would seem logical, without being overly dangerous to him. I've no idea why killing you would through much suspicion on Kai, you're his best hope of avoiding a lynch today, why would he NK the person he wants to get lynched to avoid it himself?

Again, I don’t know why you’ve cleared yourself in option 2. You didn’t vote for Japles, one of 2 active people who didn’t, you didn’t present a case against him. Japles coming up scum made 2 people look very townie, Ojanen and myself. Scum would not assume that I would attack you after Japles came up scum, or even after a lynch on Kai, there’s no reason to assume that you would ever be a target.

The most obvious result of Chaos being killed is that Ojanen and myself lynch Kai, but if he comes up town, there’s no real obvious kill after that. You including yourself in the Kai/Sando/Ojanen thing when you’re one of the few people who didn’t help lynch the confirmed scum seems like an attempt to make out that you were involved when you weren’t.

At this point in time, I think it’s down to Kai and Infinis. I agree with Kai’s statement that we should lynch him today or stop thinking of his link to Japles as his only scumminess. I personally would be feeling very dicey if we get close to Lylo with Kai in the game still, so if people agree it’s between these 2, I would definitely choose to lynch Kai today with a strong lean towards lynching Infinis if Kai comes up town...
.

There is so much WIFOM in this post I don't know where to begin.

Instead of making monster posts keeping Korts behind let me try and clear up my argument.

Living Players (7)

-

Confirmed players are in bold.

Millar13

(replaced Bekkatha, Taranski during confirmation)

Infinis

Josh Lyman

Kairyuu *

Korts *

Ojanen

Sando

(replaced iMuse77 during confirmation)

Josh has posted 3 times! 1 random, 1 stall and 1 unvote. Kai has made a strong meta argument that Josh, clearly isn't around enough to submit the kill. I would also argue that, if he was reading the thread cursorily, who would he NK? Kai or Sando clearly. No thought needed, no plan, just kill an active poster and let confusion spread. Based on this I would eliminate Josh from my suspect list for now.

millar has made short, terse posts. He also claims to have forgotten about the game and doesn't like "talking crap" which implies Kai has been. IIRC, Kia claims it is out of character for him. A meta argument again, but with little to go on...millar has to be eliminated from the suspects list for the same reasons as Josh

Chaos is dead but...

Ok, my re-read's over and I've got a few new points to make. The first and most relevant to the game being

Unvote, Vote: Japles

Even though he's apparently had a few days free, he has neglected to even post, much less acknowledge my outstanding questions from several days ago. Maybe once he does, my opinion of him may alter, but for now he's been too happy to withdraw from notice once again once suspicion started to be cast onto others and this does not help his case.

With regards to the discussion involving probability and random numbers, I don't really see the point in bringing up factors which cannot be manipulated or viewed in any other matter than which they are. As Infinis points out in a later post, he lists several other factors which we can take to be absolute fact. We cannot change them or exploit them, so why bring them up? People seem to be disputin them, but all this achieves is clarification and I don't see it as particulerly useful to scumhunting, feel free to correct me if I'm wrong though. The fact that it occured does not strike me as particularly scummy but I do question the motives behind it.

and...

Sorry if you misread my formatting, the "Minor point" was you providing a breakdown of the argument without being asked. The whole gambit thing was a pretty major point and I don't pretend to consider it otherwise.

After looking back through the topic and reading your posts in depth, especially between Kairyuu making his observation and the revelation of his plan I will concede that you never voted or FoS'd me during that period.

Also, you mentioned Kairyuu's gambit as a "failed scumhunt." Do you believe that Kairyuu would abandon an attack on me and attempt to turn it into a gambit when he had no-one directly defending me (excpet for myself obviously)? I could see him backing down if I had other people convinced by my defence, but whilst you were the only one arguing against me alongside him, the entire group still remained on the fence, hardly reason for him to abandon an alleged "scumhunt".

You've jumped on the Sando bandwagon very quickly, for some ridiculous reasons (one of which being that i didn't vote for you, yet was the main supporter against you).

I was suspicious of you, ever since the post that I called you on. I admit you've constructed a defense against it but excuse me if I don't quite believe you. I may have misunderstood you, but the way you constructed the argument and wrote it down was very confusing, which does little to assuage my suspicions. Kairyuu's argument was very convincing and, once hearing his take on the gambit he played I felt confident enough to vote you.

You have, however, found one part of my case against you where i was wrong, well done, should we just ignore the rest?

And you attack me for apparently stating the gambit argument as a minor point and then want to drop the rest of the argument? I hope you're joking here.

Yes chaos did go towards Japles but he was pro "Slip" most of the thread. He attacks me for lackluster scumhunting. Killing chaos seems to me a decent frame up for me, but a great ploy against Sando. A very thin theory, but a theory.

Korts...

- You said that scum would jump on Korts because he was a townie, how did you know he was a townie?

This an interesting question. He didn't say anywhere as far as I'm aware that I'm definite town per se, but let's play ball. Assuming that I'd attack Kai-intentionally-acting-scummy regardless of my own alignment (which I would, purely to spark discussion), the only way his subsequent arguments that scum would attack me for the reaction make sense is by assuming I'm town--since newbscum would generally shy away from actively pursuing their ICscum partner. So the gambit is completely flawed in that there are two scenarios based on my alignment, and scum reactions in those two scenarios would be completely opposite, therefore any reaction without knowledge of my alignment is mostly useless.

Nevertheless it got discussion started, and I think that was the primary purpose as opposed to catching scum in a single move.

One thing I'm suspicious of Sando for is because he has frequently expressed that if he turned scum upon his lynch, we should ignore his posts. This is scummy because looking at a confirmed scum's interactions can tell us a lot--it is possible that they left fake links, trying to incriminate townies, but in general it is helpful.

On that note everyone should go back and read Japles' posts. Take note of who he is wishy-washy on, who he ignores, who he echoes, whose attacks he takes particularly badly, etc. Since Josh Lyman was and is MIA, and I was behind for a considerable part of the game, we don't have a full spectrum of interactions, but anything is more than nothing.

mod: if the mafia doesn't send in anything during a night phase, is their kill randomized?

korts was mia, I thought he was lurking intentionally so I voted him. But this Day Two post is very well argued. I will be looking at japles' posts in my next post.

Kai...well he's so prominent it seems unlikely he's running a double gambit?! Scum pretendiing to be town using a gambit to catch scum. However, I can see no reason why scum wouldn't NK him. If Kai is town, then the town would turn towards me or Sando for the lynch. Kai's rationale for voting me is just plain wrong and he is fishing for town power roles. What justification can he have for sacrificing a power role for a vanilla townie role...that's if we have power roles which we're not guaranteed to have since with only a goon dead we can't determine which setup we have.

I could see him saying "look if someone got a guilty on someone, let's have it and try and end this"

Sando lead the japles wagon. To bus a scum buddy day 1, while staving off a lynch, would be epitome of play. I just can't see Sando as scum. Also realize that if Sando was NK'd we'd be on Kai in seconds, so NK Sando would be a bad play for Kai as scum, it doesnt clear kai.

Looks like my spoiler tags arent working and Im not condensing this after spending all this time writing it

[Infinis]

...
Infinis, I would like you to answer these:

- Why do you think Kai was a likely NK target?
- Who would have suspected if Kai had been NKd?
- Why did you not vote for Japles?
- Why do you think Josh would kill an active poster yet not include yourself or Ojanen in your targets?
- Why do you think that Millar posting (and voting) shortly before the lynch and shortly after clears him due to inactivity?
- Do you still consider me to be a decent scum possibility?
- Would you have voted for me if Kai had been NKd?

As I said NKing Kai would cast strong suspicion on you, Sando. Confirming anyone as town this early is ludicrous. Saying that no one would think you would NK Kai is perfect WIFOM defense. As in the argument both you and Kai are making, there is no way Sando as scum would NK Kai, since it would be too suspicious. Let me try and make an example we can all enjoy.

Cookie Monster, grover, oscar and ernie stand around a plate of cookies being saved for bert. The light goes out and comes back on with the cookies missing! Everyone turns to look at Cookie monster. Cookie monster being very verbose, for once, says "Of course you would blame me when the cookies were eaten, that's why I wouldn't have done it. I'm the obvious choice for who ate the cookies"

If Kai had been killed, I would've had to have start from scratch. If forced, right now, I would have said you followed by millar. That's only a forced guess on gut.

I didnt vote Japles because this is a newbie game and the case was weak against him. I thought newb play. It seemed that you, Sando, were using him as an escape from Kai's gambit/trap.

Because me and ojanen were posting few and far between, it was mostly a back and forth between you and Kai. Killing one of you would have a been a death sentence for the other.

It clears him for now. Lynching a lurker is bad form is it not? Even if I think his hit and run vote was scummy.

I state clearly in my post: for you to be scum and bus another scum while under intense pressure (L-2 at one point IIRC) would be penultimate play to clear you all the way to lylo. So I think you are town.

Your best question and hardest to answer. I would have voted you but not hammered. I would have removed my vote if you were at L-1 without a claim. In the end, I would weigh what the WIFOM from above against the other possibilities.

[Infinis]

...

If we confirm one more player then we cannot lose. 4 confirmed players on D2 = insta-win. I'm treating Ojanen and Sando as confirmed for the sake of argument, and Josh is confirmed through inactivity. One of them MUST die each Night for the rest of the game or else scum cannot win. Either way, the best hope for scum right now is to go into lylo with one confirmed townie staring them down. If we could confirm ANYONE else besides those three then we cannot lose. The scum would be forced into a 3 player lylo up against 2 confirmed townies. Sorry for fishing for an instant town win Infinis. I know it poses problems for you as scum, but setup theory is where I'm strongest, and the numbers say to break the game if possible....

You are confirming people as town without evidence. I agree on Sando and I am 90% convinced on Ojanen but Josh?

For argument's sake, if we eliminate, as scum possiblities, you, me, Sando , and Ojanen, we have left: Josh, Korts and millar

Kai and Sando say Josh I would say millar. Ojanen what say you?

Now if what Kai says about Josh is true, then I would say

FoS: J L

[Infinis]

As I said NKing Kai would cast strong suspicion on you, Sando. Confirming anyone as town this early is ludicrous. Saying that no one would think you would NK Kai is perfect WIFOM defense. As in the argument both you and Kai are making, there is no way Sando as scum would NK Kai, since it would be too suspicious. Let me try and make an example we can all enjoy.

This makes very little sense. Why are you really looking at me if Kai dies? He’d already said pre-lynch that he thought I was townie, and the scum lynch is what is being used to say I’m town. You don’t accuse someone of being scum in that circumstance purely because he has no reason to do it. Nobody had a pressing need to kill Kai, nobody.

You are making my point for me, since it's the perfect NK! Since

"NOBODY HAD A PRESSING NEED TO KILL KAI, NOBODY"

His death would have cast suspicion on Sando, just look through the thread. yes Kai did back off but Sando would be a good place to start. If Sando was not considered then yes I can see where I would be accused as well. NK kai would cause that debate. me vs Sando as scum. And the scum have a win/win town guaranteed lynching of town.

If Kai had been killed, I would've had to have start from scratch. If forced, right now, I would have said you followed by millar. That's only a forced guess on gut.

My choices would have been Millar and Josh, I’m happy to explain this if anyone wants. What about Kai being NKd would make you suspect me? Your argument seems to be: ‘Why would Sando NK Kai I wonder? No reason! He must be the scum!!’. It makes no sense.

See above

I didnt vote Japles because this is a newbie game and the case was weak against him. I thought newb play. It seemed that you, Sando, were using him as an escape from Kai's gambit/trap.

You need to reread what happened if you actually think this. I didn’t bandwagon Japles until after Kai had said he no longer felt I was scum, I didn’t need to escape.

You need to stop misrepping me. I said you started accusing Japles early on.

To wit:

...
Japles 'random' vote for Korts, without any reasoning, silly or not, after the only discussion so far has been about justification for vote, seems either very poorly thought out or just trying to fit in with everyone else.

Your second post, cast suspicions on Japles

Japles 'random' vote for Korts, without any reasoning, silly or not, after the only discussion so far has been about justification for vote, seems either very poorly thought out or just trying to fit in with everyone else.

I'm going to

Vote: Japles

for the above reason, it's been a day since 2 people called him on his 'random' voting.

Your third post quotes the second post followed by a vote on Japles

...
And yeah, still waiting to hear from Japles regarding his vote, and Bekkatha regarding...anything.

4th post still on Japles, not only Japles hence the cut but it illustrates the point

just trying to fit in with everyone else.

This... I was just on for a few seconds to read... and when I play a game, I roll a die to determine my first vote.

I will now

unvote

...

@Japles
Ahh, i was implying that is was a bad (read: scummy) thing that you're just trying to fit in with everyone else. I think that a scum would do everything in their power to be seen as just one in the crowd.

So 'just trying to fit in' would seem pretty scummy to me.

Your vote struck me as an attempt to just look like everyone else, get your name on the board with a minimum of fuss and comment, seems fairly scummy to me.

If you're content with your explanation of 'i wanted to fit in', that's fine, but if that's the case, I'm certainly keeping my vote on you as the scummiest person around in my view.
...

5th post more japles

Your next 10 posts are KvK and KvC discussion and defending your point of view and vote of Kai.

Since I'm going to bed soon, and last time i did that 3 votes came up on me, and 3 more would be 1 more than needed to hammer, i think we should have the quick-lynch talk. I personally think that one reason Kairyuu didn't post a longer reply earlier was that he was hoping you'd quick-lynch and he wouldn't have to worry about the annoyance of being questioned by me.

I am currently at L-2, this means that 2 more votes and i'm deadsies. I've read a few games, I'm yet to see one where a quick-lynch is used beneficially, or even mentioned in a positive light, on D1. A quick lynch effectively kills discussion, especially when one of the main discussers is lynched.

As townies we want as much information as possible, quick lynches stop the flow of information. They are almost universally good for scum, hence why we don't want to do it.

Discussion should probably be had regarding the fallout of someone flipping as a townie. You've just had this big bandwagon on someone, and they turn townie, someone screwed up somewhere.

But for now, I want to make sure that anyone voting from here on out realises what they're doing. If you want to hammer, fine, but making the hammer vote then saying 'oh bugger i didn't mean to happen' is incredibly bad for town. Make sure you know what you're doing.

Also, a hammer, and potentially the L-1 vote, will be seen as scummy unless backed up by very good reasoning. Personally i think this is the biggest reason not to hammer me, as i believe both scum are voting for me already, so someone else hammering will give them ammunition they need against another townie.

The L-1 vote is hugely dangerous, and shouldn't be used to pressure. L-2 is pressure enough at this stage of the game. L-1 makes it incredibly easy for a scum to come along and hammer, claim they didn't mean to, and they lynch a townie while giving away only a smallish tell. L-1 means you want this person hammered.

Remember, if you lynch a townie D1, their opinions are the only opinions of a confirmed townie that you have, you want to have as much of it as possible before doing it. And if they turn scum, the more they talk, the more likely they are to get linked to their scumbuddy.

Also, I'm not sure why I'm talking about this and not an IC. I think one of the ICs is scum, and since a quick lynch on me would be good i can understand him not talking on it i guess.

Night people, i eagerly await Kairyuu's reply. I wont be responding for nearly 24 hours from now most probably.

You admit here that you were under pressure! This post is a lot of woe is me, I did not think you would be lynched before you came back. And you thought here that one of the IC's is scum. Meaning at that point Kai/japles or Korts/Japles

Your next four posts are back to parrying between Chaos and Kai

until

-twitch-

Ya know, I like long post as much as the next guy, but this is rather excessive. I'll respond later tonight or tomorrow, depending on if/when I can get my homework done.

A quick note though. Your last two posts are complete misreps of everything I said. Why exactly haven't you been lynched yet?

Yours was bigger than mine! At least your last one compared to my response, much bigger! ('yours is bigger than mine', i hoped never to be forced to say that to another guy )

Only 1 of my last 2 posts actually refers to you, although my last post refers to you in passing, it makes no real claims against you. That is, unless you want to claim that Chaos's position is your position? So i'm going to go with me not being lynched due to my last last 2 posts NOT being a misrep of you, among other things. But would that make you misrepresenting me? I think so

Japles, you've quote 3 comments by me, none of which include an argument from me. Also, I've already stated my reasons for 2 of them, I've said time and time again why I have gone into detail regarding his last game, I didn't really want to get into this much detail, but I felt that I needed to to help explain my comments somewhat.

As to why I voted Kairyuu and FOS'd Chaos, while still saying you could be scum. Well i took a hard line against Kairyuu and Chaos, not just because they were scum, but because I knew I'd be accused of OMGUS. I felt that my case on Kairyuu was good, and I think it's better now. I felt that Chaos was linked, and I thought I had some other reasons outside of that to think he was scum, still do think I have some reasons. However, my initial suspicion had always been of you, Japles, and it had not been satisfactorily explained, still hasn't in my opinion. I couldn't discount the possibility that Kairyuu was attacking the person who was attacking his scumbuddy (me attacking you), so i mentioned it right at the end, and haven't since, because you didn't reply.

By the way, this quote from me is way out of line:

Kairyuu and Chaos, scum.

Why the vote for Kairyuu, other than that he's scum? Well I'm convinced of Kairyuu, but I'm still not convinced that Japles isn't scum. The other reason that Kairyuu could be coming after me is that i refuse(d) to remove my vote from Japles. I think the most likely explanation is Kairyuu/Chaos as scum, but i don't discount the possibility of Kairyuu/Japles.

This is a blatant misquote or taking me out of context. For reference to others, the quote is taken from post #58, page 3. You have taken my first sentence from that post (and it's a long post), and put it with the last paragraph of my post. Taken in isolation like you've put it makes it seems like I have a completely different opinion to what I stated, repeatedly. I'm really not happy that you've done it, if it's deliberate, it's very scummy, if you didn't realise the implications and just wanted to discuss those 2 points, then it's just a really rude thing to do. However given you wanted to make a point about me flip-flopping between you and Chaos, I can only assume it was deliberate.

Japles lurking, his failure to answer a simple question regarding it being scummy to 'want to just fit it in', his attacking Chaos while defending Kairyuu, despite them sharing the same opinion of who is scum (Chaos and Kairyuu), and his complete lack of argument and just agreeing with Kairyuu really brings you forward as scum in my eyes. And that was before you completely took me out of context with what amounts to a misquote. And Japles, you've completely ignored all of my arguments against Kairyuu, yet still managed to dismiss them, that's a pretty good effort.

Oh, and while I'm at it:

A good decoy plan and you really got people involved in that for a good page or so. Seems to have brought out some very noticeable things.

How do you say this, and fail to even look at any of the comments about why is was a BAD plan? Ojanen and Korts expressed concern about his results, and I've posted multiple times as to why not only it being bad, but full of scumtells. AGAIN, you've managed to completely dismiss my arguments without even looking at them.

Japles, you've managed to make me doubt myself in thinking Chaos is scum, in the worst way possible, making me think you're scum.

And Kairyuu (and all), sorry for the long posts, but look at it this way, we shouldn't be lynching someone this early anyway (although we're getting close to a timeline where I'm happier to lynch), so this space would have been filled with people posting anyway. You wouldn't be reading more, you'd just be reading the same in smaller bursts.

Japles blitzkrieg! You sepent all that time and energy on Kai and Chaos and then say you know what it's got to be Japles!

Well, I have read all your arguments against Kariyuu and I don't agree with them.

And now, you have given me, in that last post, what was needed to push me over the line...

Vote: Sando

Wow that was well thought out. Especially given that i specifically made a post saying that if you don't want to seem scummy, you can't put someone at L-1 with such a pathetic argument. If you want to get someone hammered, fine, but make it well reasoned.

I didn't want to have to post again so soon, but I feel I have to at L-1.

PLEASE IGNORE THIS WHOLE POST IF I FLIP SCUM

So I'm going to get lynched, bad, but not the worst result. I will flip townie, so I'll be the only confirmed townie in the game, so I'll post stuff now before getting hammered.

Kairyuu:

Kairyuu is my obvious choice for lynching, and I've made many and long arguments against him, although Japles has eloquently refuted them So I wont talk much about why he's scum, merely to point out that it looks like he's succeeded in getting a townie lynched.

Chaos:

Chaos was my obvious choice for his partner, he had done some scummy things in my mind, and my main target at the time, Japles, was being quiet. He was also linked to Kairyuu, so that was a mark against him. However I feel that I've pushed Chaos really hard, I've questioned everything he's said, even where I believed what he was saying, I wanted to keep pushing. I think he's responded in an honest fashion, this is fairly gut, but his posts strike me as sincere. More and more of our differences have turned out to be misunderstandings, honest mistakes on both our parts. I still don't think he's answered all the questions, and I still think he's done some scummy things, but not enough for a vote, which I've never done on him btw.

Japles:

Wow, his last few posts have been the dodgiest of the dodgy. I cant ignore just how scummy they have been. He's completely ignored all arguments that I've made, and when pushed merely states that he 'doesn't believe them'. He's put me at L-1, with absolutely no reason. And i haven't even brought up here what I said in my last post about him, he's dodgy as hell.

He's also linked to Kairyuu, i continued to attack Japles after his post, and then Kairyuu attacked me, completely taking the focus off Japles.

What is scums plan now:

Kairyuu has, i guess pretty effectively, set my arguments up as OMGUS. I can only say, once again, that they are not. It has taken me a while to realise why Kairyuu was so insistent on me using OMGUS, and now I think it's because he thinks it's how he'll get out of a D2 lynch. But, he's making out that OMGUS is a scumtell by me, do not let him change his mind to it being the play of a bad townie. This is not OMGUS.

Kairyuu has made some huge slip-ups, I hope that after lynching me and me turning townie, you will re-read what I've said and continue to press him on it. Do not let me being lynched stop you from continuing the questioning on him

Again:

COMPLETELY IGNORE THIS POST IF I TURN SCUM.

Hell, you can ignore everything I say if i turn scum, but I wont, so I really hope you D2 lynch Kai.

My vote/FOS have changed in light of Japles ridiculous posts:

Confirm Vote: Kairyuu

FOS: Japles

Kai, Chaos, and japles.

But enough already, you were at L-1 and turned it around to a Japles (scum) lynch! I could have hammered you right there if I was scum and saved my scum buddy. I didn't because I thought you were town then and town now.

Damn, I missed this completely the first couple of reads, were you really at L-1 by this post? Telling that you were not hammered. I'll respond to the rest of your post after I investigate.

[Infinis]

Official Vote Count

Josh Lyman - 1 (Ojanen)
Ojanen - 1 (Josh Lyman)

Sando - 3 (Kairyuu, Chaos40, Korts)

Kairyuu - 1 (Sando)

Not Voting - 3 (Bekkatha, Infinis, Japles)

5 to Lynch

Ill start here at L-2 for you

then at post 85

Well, I have read all your arguments against Kariyuu and I don't agree with them.

And now, you have given me, in that last post, what was needed to push me over the line...

Vote: Sando

L-1 kai, chaos, korts, and japles with 5 to lynch

Josh, bekkatha and I could have all hammered. We can assume Josh and Bekkatha just werent on enough to hammer (scum or not), I chose not to hammer.

Oja unvotes to avoid the possible hammer in post 92

Back to Kai

Kai's 117 is strange he basically says, "I guess after all that Sando is town" more like "since both scum (kai/japles) are on the wagon and with lurkers we aren't going to get the lynch I want."

"Japles is scummy but I can't risk bussing my partner this early. Ooo Infinis opens the door for me to attack him. maybe he'll vote Sando to avoid trouble!' Oja calls Kai on this and Kai says "okay fine, let me then redirect and redouble my assault on infinis"


Sando wonders why not Japles, and kai responds

...
I haven't been scum except in 2 and 4, and I don't remember mentioning my views on gambiting as scum in any other games I've been in (though you're welcome to dig through them if you'd like).

Regarding your talk on the overdefensiveness of Infinis, can you elaborate overdefensiveness over what?

I pointed out that his assumption did not work with the math, and he went up in arms trying to defend himself when there was no accusation of scumminess in my math bit.

And why is this more noteworthy than Japles's behaviour, which to me seems like defensiveness directly related to his own persona?

Japles isn't interesting to me right now. He is scummy, yes, but not as much so as Infinis, so I am focusing on the scummier target. It's just the way I do things.

Nice misrep of me again. And nice avoiding Japles again.

Oja sums it up well in post 140 and slams it home in 145

The sad truth is that Kai has posted a lot. He went from Sando to me to Japles. Possibly organically. Another thing that bothers me is that it's risky to be so prominent a player and be scum. A huge gambit, to beat the dead horse.

@Sando you are right I cleared millar prematurely.

Do you really need to be shown again the evidence that he used to exonerate Ojanen and me? And his confirming 2 others would come from a cop with an innocent investigation on someone alive right now.

Quote:

For argument's sake, if we eliminate, as scum possiblities, you, me, Sando , and Ojanen, we have left: Josh, Korts and millar


Why do you keep doing this? You’re not even close to being town confirmed, either is Kai. Ojanen and I are the only 2 that people feel are town confirmed or close to. [/Sando]

For argument's sake, that means I am making a hypothetical, I am town though. I am not saying I have been confirmed town.

I did reread and Ojanen did pick up the case where Sando left off. But Sando had early and constantly put pressure on Japles and was L-1. I did not twist the history I was simply mistaken about the sequence of events.

Finally killing Chaos would indeed shine the light on me

Ok, my re-read's over and I've got a few new points to make. The first and most relevant to the game being

Unvote, Vote: Japles

Even though he's apparently had a few days free, he has neglected to even post, much less acknowledge my outstanding questions from several days ago. Maybe once he does, my opinion of him may alter, but for now he's been too happy to withdraw from notice once again once suspicion started to be cast onto others and this does not help his case.

With regards to the discussion involving probability and random numbers, I don't really see the point in bringing up factors which cannot be manipulated or viewed in any other matter than which they are. As Infinis points out in a later post, he lists several other factors which we can take to be absolute fact. We cannot change them or exploit them, so why bring them up? People seem to be disputin them, but all this achieves is clarification and I don't see it as particulerly useful to scumhunting, feel free to correct me if I'm wrong though. The fact that it occured does not strike me as particularly scummy but I do question the motives behind it.

Since in your opinion Kai was not a NK possibility, then why would I NK chaos to draw attention to myself? If Kai is WIFOM proof for the NK then so must I with chaos.

IMHO, NKing Kai or Chaos deaths would point at me. Kai's death more at you Sando, but still me.

So in summary
1. I think Kai is scummy
2. Kai was a viable NK
3. Ojanen is confirmed town
4. Sando is in high probably town
5. My posts have been long so I apologize if I went off center line. Many of my posts take 2 hours to write, sometimes the logic works in my mind and comes out poorly on the page after grinding them out

Unvote Kai. Vote: millar

In light of the analysis of Sando's L-1 wagon.

[Infinis]

Welcome to the game semioldguy!

@Infinis

Now first I'll just take this from your second last post:

Kai, Chaos, and japles.
But enough already, you were at L-1 and turned it around to a Japles (scum) lynch! I could have hammered you right there if I was scum and saved my scum buddy. I didn't because I thought you were town then and town now.
Damn, I missed this completely the first couple of reads, were you really at L-1 by this post? Telling that you were not hammered. I'll respond to the rest of your post after I investigate.

Whaaat?!
1. First paragraph you create an alibi by saying you're not scum cause you didn't hammer
2. Second paragraph you say you didn't ever realise Sando was L-1? How's that for a contradiction?
3. I checked and you never posted to the thread in the timeframe you could have actually hammered, Kai unvoted before your next message, only people talking between Japles putting to L-1 and Kai unvoting back to L-2 were Sando, Japles and me.

?!?

1. I was reading the thread. If was scum, I would be waiting for the L-1 to hammer.
2. Yes a contradiction. But I will reiterate if I was scum I'd be watching closely for the hammer, I was reading didn't notice he was L-1. I still believe me not hammering is a protown tell. Just like I think the quick vote by millar w/o justification was scummy enough for my vote.

Now we have replacements. So I will

Unvote

until we get opinions from the replacements on what is going on and who is most likely scum. And more from korts as well

@Kai Dismissing your scummy behavior in regards to ignoring Japles as you insist is not going to happen, it is a big issue.

And your exchange with semioldguy did sound personal at the end. He has valid points and it didn't read as a personal attack. He attacked your playstyle as scummy not you.

[Infinis]

Fri Apr 03, 2009 8:22 pm
Japles puts sando at L-1

Sat Apr 04, 2009 6:34 pm
Kai unvotes

What I am saying is that if I was scum I would've hammered somewhere in the 22 hours Sando was at L-1. Would that or wouldn't that have made Kai the main suspect Day2 at that point? Followed by Japles?

Oja is basically confirmed, So while Sando was at L-1, that leaves Me, Josh and Beth not posting in the timeframe as has been argued by Oja Posted: Sat Apr 04, 2009 6:52am

Josh and Bek(millar) were not on the thread at all and gave no impression that they had been following along.

Random Vote Josh Posted: Sun Mar 29, 2009 6:36 pm. Nearly a week before!

One comment from Bek Posted: Tue Mar 31, 2009 4:28 pm. Maybe Bek was reading, but with only two posts, period, I just don't see it.

Posted: Wed Apr 01, 2009 9:54 pm
was my last post before the L-1 situation with Sando

I post again on Posted: Sun Apr 05, 2009 9:49 pm
Note I posted again and continue to post

Josh makes an excuse post fixes it and disappears. Do you honestly think he was keeping up? Note no mention of me being prodded. Josh responding to a prod is a null tell since PM can be linked to an email account

With 22 hours for scum to hammer, why didn't the hammer drop?

Again I did not notice Sando was at L-1. I am used to bigger games. I should have put more effort into reading. But I got behind, and I did catch up, albeit late. I am not contradicting myself in this post, nor negating my argument. Assume that I am scum, I'm not though.

I am arguing that Sando being at L-1 for almost 24 hours was the perfect opportunity for scum to hammer.

If you think I'm scum, then I'm really incompetent scum. I wasn't paying enough attention and missed a hammer on a townie? And now I'm making huge cases, doing PBPA, basically drawing undue attention to myself?!

So let's look at cases:

1) Sando is scum and started early distancing from Japles and then bussed him Day 1
2) Josh(old) or Bek(millar) or i are scum and were just plain gone
3) Oja or I are scum and were waiting for an opportune moment to hammer (damn u Kai for removing your vote )
4) Or both Scum were already on the Sando wagon

#1 seems highly unlikely
#2 is possible, unlikely but possible
#3 Oja is basically confirmed and I must be really incompetent to be reading the thread as scum and miss the hammer
#4 is likely

[Infinis]

I've done my best to convince you I'm not scum. I would also like to see input from millar's replacement.

That being said I think we have a path to victory, starting with

Vote: Kairyuu

That's L-2 me and L-1 Kai

[Infinis]

...

Regarding the request for Cop claim:

I've already posted once on why I don't think they should claim, but something else occurred to me. The scum have 1 advantage at the moment, and we make it bigger if we get a cop claimant. That is they have an idea of the game makeup and we don't. If the remaining scum is vanilla scum, they know there's only 1 townie role. If they're a roleblocker, they know there's either 2 or 0 townie roles. A cop claiming means the scum would know the exact makeup. Town can't know what the makeup is even with a claim.

This leaves us really open to a false-claim from a scum who knows the makeup.

Kai has previously asked for mass-claims in other games, it's worked well for him, I think this is just a null-tell from someone who didn't think it through fully.

No scum can false claim. Town win next day because we lynch false claiming scum. Care to explain your rationale?

[Infinis]

Alright since it's from you korts, I'll go back once again and link in the posts of interest. Since I think Kai is scum but he said he'd be away and that's bad form even if he is scum to lynch him while's he's at prom.

But only because you asked korts. I think I've made my case already and recently.

Unvote

[Infinis]

1. Kai's gambit was garbage but Sando's slip was first pointed out by Chaos and was never responded to.

2. There are huge posts of back and forth after that. Of note is that Kai exonerates Oja and Japles in his big reveal post

3. Sando attacked Kai and Chaos in these huge posts with a passing mention of japles

4. Sando tried to scare off hammer vote

5. Kai says he was wrong about Sando and turns towards me

6. Ojanen calls him on his bad arguments. So does Sando later on.

7. Sando wants Kai's opinion on Japles, which Kai refuses to give other than Infinis is scummier

8. Sando restates his Kai/Japles theory from earlier

9. Ojanen makes a good summary of why Kai/Japles.

Okay Im going to stop here, I wrote a huge post before this, which is half done only!( i saved it for later) I cannot be concise to make the case, since I have links to back up my claims.

Either Kai or Sando is Scum, if it's anyone else they lurked too hard to get any kind of read. Old guy is making some valid points to get townie points.

[Infinis]

@ojanen Sando's initial response to the slip

I read the post three times. Sando links the game talks about it, and says it's just a reference to "how one of our IC's think"

Where is the answer to why was he doing it? If he was town why bother looking into the gambit? If he was scum then why mention the whole thing? If Kai used it to catch scum and Sando is town he has no worries, if Sando is scum then he diffuses the situation by bringing it up early. And Chaos questions him about the line Sando's big defense comes after Kai's big accusation post. Sando's defense is that he was looking for contradictory behavior from game to game, purely meta arguments. And this reasoning...

Now i figure if i can start getting you to talk about a previous game, you'll screw up, and you did, i just didn't notice till now. You've changed your mind from 'don't treat newbies with kids gloves' to 'IC scum need to be careful not to put pressure on their partners in newbie games'. I think the reason you've changed your mind is because you're now scum.

Chaos calls him on it

Sando responds to Kort's accusation again. Read it, it's a hypothetical on top of a hypothetical based on meta argument. The answer as I read it is that Sando was thinking about a solution if Kai had try to run a hypothetical claim and that he was looking for a change in behavior from one game to another game. (Not a pattern of games, one game to the next. 2 times as IC does not a pattern make.) And at the end of the post he says because if Kai tried this gambit then I'd think Kai was scum or Doc. But again why bring it up at all since no such play had been made? Only scum would need to be doing this kind of research to avoid being trapped again.

Sando accuses Kai of screwing up based again on meta-gaming, bad meta-gaming. In essence, Sando is saying he trapped the trapper!

And Sando accuses kai of being manipulative and reiterates the meta-gaming argument here and he summarizes the situation

Chaos calls Sando out on this very same argument. Sando response to Chaos

Chaos is dead on in this post. My only disagreement is that the answer given is a non-answer. Read the post it is telling.

Sando steers the conversation back to Kai's gambit which is not the point.

Sando realizes that wasn't a response to Chaos argument

Chaos is now unsure and wants clarification. I don't blame him since it was two separate issues.

Kai comes out guns ablazing

Sando responds. The last paragraph is most interesting.

Sando talks about gambit and semantics not the point again. And then slides in at the end the equivalent of "I haven't done anything else scummy please ignore my non answer, to a valid question."

And Japles saves the day with his combination of bad English and logic! So Sando can address this and avoid more discussion on why he was thinking about how to deal with a scum trapping gambit. Unless you accept that he was using the comment to trap Kai with a meta-game argument based.

You(Ojanen) clear up the situation nicely, regarding The Slip, not Sando.

Sando claims to have clarified his position in regards to The Slip in the first part. I disagree the waters were muddied by walls of text (irony noted)

Chaos explains to Japles what's going on and is spot on again.

I chime in And see I missed commas for the parenthetical expression in the last paragraph first sentence. And I mention the possible bussing going on, completely wrong Kai bussing Sando or vice versa but you get my point by now.

I don't like the way it played out. Kai's flip flop basically ended The Slip controversy. Kai even admits it looks bad changing his mind this late. And Chaos once more with insightful posting (I'm finally seeing why Chaos was NK'd) The town turns towards me and Japles, especially Kai.

At this point I don't even know why I bother, yes the bussing would be extreme, but wouldn't it have cleared Japles or Sando until LyLo as it has here. I believe most are convinced Sando is town. Hell with the way things have played out he probably is.

I think Sando has made a strong case against Kai (I'm not going to summarize it, nor make a point by point analysis of it).

My main problem is Kai's hammer of Japles, his only saving grace. So if Kai, Sando and Ojanen aren't scum, that leads me back to millar. (Who requested a replacement) But again I say what if the remaining scum was one of the lurkers? What then?

[Infinis]

You've completely misrepped my point and please explain to me how I'm role hunting.

A scum falseclaim would be extremely chancy at best.

Well it's basically two possibilities:

False claim with Counterclaim is town win. Town lynches both players starting with first claimant.

False Claim with no counterclaim is the tricky one. We agree on this.

However, you are the one giving scum ideas:

If we have a cop and he claims, and the scum is a vanilla scum, then the scum knows that there is no doc, but we do not

[Infinis]

I think we're talking about two different gambits.

Kai said this game's gambit failed, not the previous gambit you were thinking about how to respond to. To clarify, you were thinking about a gambit to catch scum and how to respond to it. Why? I argue and link posts to show this but we obviously disagree.

You hypothetically say that if Kai had ran the previous' game's gambit then he would be doc or scum. Again that wasn't the issue, the issue was thinking about the whole thing. It was dodgy that you wrote it and kai was the only one to clear you before Japles flipped scum. Japles saved you.

I didn't vote you back then because I thought you were innocent, I thought the whole thing was thin and Kai attacked you on newbie play. On the rereread I see how the debate lasted for so long, it was a two pronged debate. This games gambit vs you thinking about Kai's prior game gambit. The issues got crossed and the main point of the second prong was lost. I stand by what I said about it. I still think you're most likely town.

Hindsight is 20/20 but without looking back at previous posts what do you suggest we do to scum-hunt?

I've already posted once on why I don't think they should claim, but something else occurred to me. The scum have 1 advantage at the moment, and we make it bigger if we get a cop claimant. That is they have an idea of the game makeup and we don't. If the remaining scum is vanilla scum, they know there's only 1 townie role. If they're a roleblocker, they know there's either 2 or 0 townie roles. A cop claiming means the scum would know the exact makeup. Town can't know what the makeup is even with a claim.

This leaves us really open to a false-claim from a scum who knows the makeup.

I agree only with the second possibility not first. A falseclaim with counterclaim is a town win, cop or doc. Nowhere do I ask or even hint about making a claim. Argue with me all you like about me misrepping what was said, but here you are totally fabricating an issue.

Find the link or quote me where I ask for a claim or hint about a claim, prior to the recent response to your comments.

If I didn't know better I'd say you were preemptively blocking a claim.

[Infinis]

My last comment just in case I don't live to post another day is reread me.

1) I tried to keep up but between Sando and Kai but the walls of text were astonishing. I said this back then I say this now.

2) I reread, it was 5-6 hour process, I wrote one long post scrapped it(saved to word) and wrote the long one here. I linked as best as I could. I went with the arguments as written. I apologize if I misquoted anyone, but I wrote it as I saw it. Yes it is looking back and things are clearer now, but that is the nature of the beast.

3) I voted Kai today. I think the town victory lies in that direction. millar who I think is scummy asked for a replacement Kai said he would be gone. korts wanted input from people so I unvoted Kai from being at L-1.

4) The only person who should be confirmed town is Oja. Yes Sando is almost confrmed, but it is possible that he was distancing from Japles initially and then it turn into bussing. Right now with Sando just plain making up me wanting a claim, I don't know what to think about Sando.

5) The question stands what if the Day 1 lurkers, J_L or millar are one of the remaining scum what then?

[Infinis]

I'm town cop. I got innocent on korts Night 1. Night 2 I chose between Sando and Ojanen. I chose poorly.

If you consider Ojanen confirmed town, then that leaves Starbuck and semioldguy, which as I asked in my last post, how are you going to determine who is scum among them?

Town wins if we have Doc.

And semioldguy...I got off Kai's wagon at korts, a townies request, since it would have put Kai at L-1 and korts was catching up.

FoS Semioldguy

[Infinis]

My very first game of Mafia, not here, had a similiar situation where one person was confirmed town. Everyone agreed and night after night he survived. Doc dies, cop dies, confirmed town still alive. I call him on it and everyone jumps on my back. We're at lynch or lose and no one will vote the confirmed townie for his excellent play and analysis. So I thought to confirm one of you. Since the confirmed townie was role blocker scum

I thought scum would leave sando alive to lead the charge on me. It's what I wouldve done, just as Kai was left alive night 1. Kill you and let sando mislynch me. It's WIFOM.

I can't false claim since real cop can counterclaim and we both get lynched town win. If we have doc then we can win assuming one of the replacements claim.

[Infinis]

As I said, an you now point out Oja, it is almost impossible to tell who is the scum among the remaining two replacements.

It seems way to simple to lynch them both for a win, that being said though, if it's not one of them then bravo Oja.

[Infinis]

Yeah that's the problem. Too many replacements. My fault for picking Sando, it was a tip off Ojanen lived. But at that point Oja was untouchable.

GG

[Infinis]

AP English has sidelined Kai's analysis post, oh well. Hope to see you guys around

[Infinis]

@kai Gratz