Team Mafia 2018: White Flag — Day Six
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Thestatusquo He/HimSheaHe/Him
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Thestatusquo He/HimSheaHe/Him
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Thestatusquo He/HimSheaHe/Him
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Thestatusquo He/HimSheaHe/Him
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Coincidentally, I want YOU dead tomorrow if he flips scum.In post 3442, Ranmaru wrote:Can you talk to me about who you think is scum upon CES town flip, and CES scum flip? I want Shea dead tomorrow if CES flips town today.tout comprendre c'est tout pardonner-
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both gamma and dan have promised to hammer at deadline.In post 3448, northsidegal wrote:hey @gamma please don't go to sleep or something without hammering.tout comprendre c'est tout pardonner-
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Thestatusquo He/HimSheaHe/Him
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how is my vote scummy.
you realize that you're suggesting I'm "scummily" moving on to the lynch of one person who would be my buddy if ces flips scum, while at the same time have been hard attacking and trying to suggest the other person you're suggesting as my buddy (dunn) all game.
How does that grouping make ANY sense to you.tout comprendre c'est tout pardonner-
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he gave a read list for tomorrow....which leaves off the obvious todays lynch because its not relevant to tomorrow...In post 3464, Ranmaru wrote:Do you see CES anywhere in his reads?tout comprendre c'est tout pardonner-
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no, but I think that the confluence of evidence suggests the exact opposite of your read and you're ignoring it.
there are like 2 individual factors here that make me unlikely to be buddies with ces specifically.
the first is that it would require me to be hard bussing on scum buddy while trying to also bus your other scum read.
the second is that I am being counter wagoned, coincidentally but the literal three people I think are scum.
I don't think I'm cleared for those two things, but it seemed to me that you're saying that I'm more likely to be scum with ces than anyone else, and I just think the opposite is true. I think my actions look way worse with a ces town flip than a scum one.tout comprendre c'est tout pardonner-
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bullfucking shit.In post 3483, Ranmaru wrote:CES and you both have tip toed around each other. He's only voting you because this is his last chance for survival.
I many times engaged about ces specifically. I talked ces meta and why it led me to a null town read, I even did it with you personally.
then he responded to north and that response was garbage and didn't fit with the town meta I was referencing the whole game, so I changed my mind.
we literally had conversations where I added onto conversations about ces you were having.
this is just straight up fucking false.tout comprendre c'est tout pardonner-
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Thestatusquo He/HimSheaHe/Him
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you, because you don't seem to care who is lynched as long as its not your scum buddy over there at l-1 right now.In post 3485, Ranmaru wrote:
Between you and I, who has tried to influence the game more and why?In post 3482, Thestatusquo wrote:I also think the balance of my play has been pretty town as well, I think thats what should clear me, but obviously you disagree there.
you have tried to test the waters on almost literally every player in the game today and we ended up with like the literal one you were half hearted about.
I, on the other hand, prefer to vote for who I think is scum, and not call 3 people scum and then the next minute tell them to vote with me on my next sure fire cant miss scum team.tout comprendre c'est tout pardonner-
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Thestatusquo He/HimSheaHe/Him
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I have tried to influence the game by voting my scum reads and attempting to get people to vote for them. I literally wrote a case on eddie day 2.
Your characterization of my play is just flat out wrong.
Also, scum players try to influence the game too. I don't even know what point you think you're making.tout comprendre c'est tout pardonner-
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by hard bussing I simply mean adding momentum to a lynch. CES wasn't a foregone conclusion until I voted him. Gamma was still waffling, he wasn't ADs first choice, ranmaru is dead set opposed. Dunn is off in nowhere land.In post 3493, northsidegal wrote:
"hard bussing"? is all you mean by that your vote here? because nowhere else in the game, if i recall correctly, were you really pushing on cogito ergo sum. to that, i would ask – do you expect scum lynches in white flag to be entirely composed of town? if not, then i'd expect that certainly you can at least understand where i'm coming from and why your vote on cogito ergo sum isn't necessarily very impactful evidence and why i think a review of the game before this stage would hold more weight than looking at this vote here.In post 3481, Thestatusquo wrote:no, but I think that the confluence of evidence suggests the exact opposite of your read and you're ignoring it.
there are like 2 individual factors here that make me unlikely to be buddies with ces specifically.
the first is that it would require me to be hard bussing on scum buddy while trying to also bus your other scum read.
yes, you're being counterwagoned – like i said, i think at face value that thisthe second is that I am being counter wagoned, coincidentally but the literal three people I think are scum.
I don't think I'm cleared for those two things, but it seemed to me that you're saying that I'm more likely to be scum with ces than anyone else, and I just think the opposite is true.I think my actions look way worse with a ces town flip than a scum one.isa valid point. my inner confirmation bias wants to just scream "distancing!!!" but i wouldn't be comfortable saying that with any level of confidence without really reviewing this whole end of day in-depth.
in response to the bold, that's something i don't think you've mentioned before – what aboutyouractions make less sense as scum in the case of town cogito ergo sum?
I had been slight town reading ces before that, and my jumping on the wagon made it way more likely to happen than if I had aggressively pushed dunn there.
I'm not trying to claim the wagon was my doing or that I was pushing ces before this wagon, but I think downplaying my role on it by calling my vote scummy is just not accurate.
I mean...standard scum hunting right, if ces flips town? I jumped onto a wagon late on a townie, which would be third misslynch I was on where I either led the charge or aggressively pursued. I led the charge d1, I cased eddie day 2. It doesn't look good for me from the standpoint of holistic play. I also think it makes the me-dunn pairing more plausible. If ces is town it makes more sense that I would be trying to distance/bus my buddy dunn. I don't think that assertion makes sense if ces flips scum, but it does if he flips town.
for the record, I have talked about this before. I mentioned it when we were talking about who looks good/bad from flips.tout comprendre c'est tout pardonner-
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shaddup.In post 3497, northsidegal wrote:
ha, do you understand the desire sometimes to just call yourself obvtown now?In post 3482, Thestatusquo wrote:I also think the balance of my play has been pretty town as well, I think thats what should clear me, but obviously you disagree there.tout comprendre c'est tout pardonner-
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can we call them maroons?In post 3503, northsidegal wrote:hi can we not call people morons please thank you
or macaroons?
man macaroons are fucking dank.tout comprendre c'est tout pardonner-
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Thestatusquo He/HimSheaHe/Him
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I already answered this. If the third scum buddy is in serious danger of being lynched, you can't bus there.In post 3561, Gamma Emerald wrote:Why does Ran try to save CES when she can switch on for towncred?
Hence, if we think the third scum is dunn, which I do, Ran has to try to save CES or he loses the game.tout comprendre c'est tout pardonner-
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You said I was scum for my reaction to NSGs case if ces flipped scum. Now, after I was right and after you couldn't get me counterwagoned yesterday and after you've lost LQs support, you think it makes me town?In post 3536, Ranmaru wrote:Hello. The remaining scum is Marquis and Action Dan. I am fine with being put at L-2 or L-1 today while I make a case, vca, and final reads list in the case I'm mislynched today. I will not vote outside of those two today. I still think Town will win with or without me. I suggest today should be used with asking me questions about my mindset if I do die today, that way you can consider it in light of my town flip. I think Quick, Gamma, and Shea all get town credit for their reaction to NSG's CES case. I think CES's scum flip is the best town can ask for, since his flip gives more information rather then a Marquis or Action Dan scum flip.
Huh.
Also
In post 3554, Ranmaru wrote:Shadoweh: A50 thought he was scum with CES due to VCA. (Never 2 on the same wagon, except for the lynch, all 3 on it as of Feb 06) I thought the team of Shea, Lycanfire, CES made sense. I pushed them. Then each time Lycan responded, I was like "Hell no my gut is screaming town." It's not depression, I'm looking into the future.
I mean, this might be one of the like 5 different 3 person scum teams you pushed, and you did very briefly vote CES, but your vote and your attack on CES was very different from your push or Dan or LQ or me. It was half hearted and you never tried to actually get him lynched. You spent all day yesterday trying to derail his lynch using literally any counter wagon you could think of.
The fact that you're here trying to claim that you thought he was scum all along is just complete and utter horseshit.tout comprendre c'est tout pardonner-
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Considering you were barely here, this defense holds less water than you think it does.In post 3568, Dunnstral wrote:If you look deeper into the votes you'll see I had numerous opportunities to hammer people who weren't CES - I'm not scum
I had the opportunity to hammer Marquis.In post 3560, ActionDan wrote:The information on a scum CES flip was: Don't lynch Marquis before Dunnstraltout comprendre c'est tout pardonner-
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I have not much I want to say. I think the final scum are Ranmaru and Dunn. If I'm wrong on one of them the third scum is probably marquis. Maybe Gamma but I doubt it.
From a POE perspective I have very strong town reads on:
ActionDan
LQ
I have a reasonably strong town read on:
Davsto
I have a middling town read on:
Gamma
Marquis/shadoweh (based primarily on CES hammering on him for the whole game and the fact that he was continually put up for lynch which suggests as NSG suggested implies he's been a pretty continual ML target.)
My preference would be to lynch Dunn, and see if that ends the game, then reevaluate tomorrow and see if Ranmaru's actions this game are still as bad as I think they are.
Davsto do you not think Dunn is scum, and if so why not? If so, is it just that you think ran is most likely?tout comprendre c'est tout pardonner-
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I'm sorry but you have zero credibility.In post 3613, Ranmaru wrote:No, it's Marquis or Me. That's the most beneficial direction for town right now.
feel free to vote for who you think is scum but in no world are we letting you dictate today's lynch.tout comprendre c'est tout pardonner-
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I'm not going to focus on anyone vs. anyone.In post 3615, Ranmaru wrote:I mean, focusing on Dunn today is a bit lazy. At least fulfill my request so I can explain myself to you all as best I can. For example, if Dunn were lynched and flipped town today, would your truly reconsider your read on me the next day? I think not. Yet if you focused on one of ME v Marquis, if somehow I were mislynched, it would at least give town a ton of information (due to wagons) and make others accountable for their actions towards my slot. I also think Marquis is town's best chance at victory, since that might be a lynch town may actually agree on. Otherwise we may just lose. I want you all to try harder.
I'm going to focus on who I think is scum and vote them. That's not lazy, thats mafia.
What is it with players these days where they think every day has to be some massive 1v1.
I have already outlined why I think you're scum but if you want me to do that again tomorrow I can.tout comprendre c'est tout pardonner-
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I'm reading ranmaru as scum for a couple of broad reasons:In post 3607, Gamma Emerald wrote:Can anyone tell me they're scumreading Ran for something other than him defending CES?
1) His reads don't seem to bear any relationship to who is actually scum. I'm pretty sure every single person he has voted has flipped town, and every single wagon he has not been on has been on scum. We have a bit of a small sample going on here, but consistently when his actions have been put the test (i.e. who he's been voting at the end of the day.) its been wrong every time.
2) This is important because Ranmaru votes. A lot. For different people. A lot. With the same degree of expressed certainty.
He seems to not care about who is lynched too much, except if its on CES, who he also declared scum earlier in the day but then did everything in his power to stop.
Look at the juxtaposition between this post:
and this post:In post 2347, Ranmaru wrote:====
Reads
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Town
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Quick: I again, felt his opening play seemed illogical, but as I pushed into his illogical web, I realize that it seems to have no scum motive there. As I pushed him he kept engaging, which makes me feel he really was trying to understand my issues. I started liking his play since him explaining himself to me, then giving his reads list, then on Day 3, after his Gamma/Ran push, explained his issue with me. I also do believe he is town trying to push things even though he doesn't feel he has the right evidence. I think he undervalues his own skill, and think he has made good observations but then re-treads those due to Occamz razor. (I feel like that helps sometimes and it hurts sometimes especially when scum are doing things you don't expect precisely to fool those who use it)
Gamma: My read on Gamma remains the same. As I have explained in my #2217, this seems much different then his scum game or his third party game. His 'forced' reactions are null, he does it as both alignments. I like his questioning in his #2283, and I like his reconsideration of Quick after Quick rightfully explains himself. In Penguin Mafia Redux, he wasn't actually scumhunting as much. Here he has been doing plenty of that. I would also like those pushing for Gamma (CES) to look into my #2217 and tell me their thoughts.
NSG: Her #441 seems like a pro-town observation, not something I'd think Scum would point out. Now, if I compare NSG to Lycanfire, she's been pretty consistent with her push on CES. She's asked Llama his thoughts on CES. I think overall she was posting well. Now, given her progression on Dunn, I can see why she was fine with voting him as opposed to Eddie. Eddie flipping town makes me feel much better about her slot in general. Again, I do like that she repeats her question to CES in her #550. Looking back, her #584 seems fine since T-chill seemed like likely scum for avoiding the game. She follows up on her questioning to Dunn in her #489. After those posts, is when she starts to drop in activity and engagement. She says it's mostly due to her feeling she is doing bad, which I don't see at all. I can see this as more likely to be town as, she was posting well, and I think if she were scum, she'd continue to post to keep up the charade. She also mentions it's due to post rate going faster, and I know I myself, am a cause of that, even though this game I'm trying to restrict myself. (As opposed to Penguin Mafia Redux, my previous game here, I was top poster above Mulch, Gamma, and Transcend) So it makes sense. This is why I keep asking people to slow down their posting (LQ) because it actually hurts other town from being able to read thoroughly and with effort, when scum really don't have that same desire to comb through posts. She asks for questions to help her jump back into the game, and I try to help out. She does answer in her #1473 which is helpful. Her stance on Eddie was weak, but it doesn't do much to weaken my town read on NSG. On the small off chance that Marquis is scum, she might actually be scum as well. Only slight chance though. A50 thinks she is lock town though. So does Cheeky. (Well that is outdated, she said that quite a while ago, Cheeky isn't active right now, it's just me and A50, but Cheeky did check in with us recently asking us for updates)
Action Dan: So in general, I still have a problem with Action Dan's lack of presence. It feels as the days go on he has less and less presence. He stuck his neck out stating he thought Eddie would still flip town, that looks good on him.
His #1144 is him simply townreading people and using POE. What I really need to see is him going into why, thoroughly if he is doing that, yet he declines. So, that doesn't actually help me sort him. (Yet he says he'll do one today, I hope to see it) I think I have no reason to truly believe he is scum but I'm still wary of him. Slight town.
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Null
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Dunnstral: Repeating what I have said earlier: The only thing I get is null. I do like his votes, on Marquis, and his push on T-chill did seem like he had conviction for it. He has been present, and voting, but that's about it. Not seeing any scum intent from him, though. A50 does have him in the scum pool, which is the only thing I have in the back of my mind to keep in mind when reading Dunnstral. An important post I think, is his #2034, which states he isn't invested. The good thing to keep in mind is, that even though he isn't invested, he's still present. || I haven't really seen much from him today, he's just wondering about the kill for now. If we don't lynch scum before him for at least today / tomorrow, then he needs to die.
Marquis: My issue with him is that I can't really find any townieness from him. I do agree that him popping in and out may be scum. I think I'm just more correct with the reads below. If I'm wrong on the lynch today, Marquis must be the next lynch for sure.
Davsto: My overall feelings still remain, so I'll re-post it: I feel like his reads list is overall, surface level. He's still actually in process of ISO'ing Gamma. WGEURTZ, I don't get any vibes from. This is one of those things I can agree with LQ on. (The flatness) It's kind of an issue if Davsto is consistent with that. I also generally don't like how he formats his posts, it makes it hard to parse. LQ's post on him is a good point: #1730 (Second paragraph, first sentence) I think I null read him. I know that he played devil's advocate with Postie on the Eddie case, which seemed townie. Then he makes #1427, agreeing to it. Again, I can't really get too much vibes either way. I keep trying to get a read on him and it's difficult for me. || Now, I'm seeing that he may be having trouble finding mafia. If he's town, I can understand that he's just having surface level opinions and is having a hard time trying to, which is why I'm hoping he does do something with what CES and I asked of him. If CES is not scum, Davsto is. I was hoping he'd actually ISO or answer my questions, I can't really say if he's scum for sure or town, but the way he's posting right now isn't helping me sort him.
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Scum
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CES: I realize that CES's #122 Seems suspicious because he states that to Quick without actually stating a scumread on Marquis before then, or giving support. In general, CES in the beginning of game to mid game, seemed to be busy. CES over time has begun to seem more townie to me, especially with his #2279 where he shows worry about the Postie kill. Yet he doesn't really show any re-read yet. His #1596 is concerning to me, as his reads on Shea and Lycanfire don't seem convincing. I would expect a player of his experience to be more critical of a player like Shea. I think sheeping Llama's read is lazy on his part. I actually agree with NSG's point that his pattern of switch to wagons he original wasn't passionate for, gives him scumpoints. It's actually very concerning that he states feeling used as a scapegoat by NSG (which discredits her) but he doesn't actually explain his mindset further. #2279 I'm not confident he is scum, but I feel he'd be the long term scum if so. I think he's slight scum, or town that has been very wrong except his scum read on Marquis in the case Shea/Lyca aren't scum. I find his answer for not explaining his mindset on the Eddie vote to be concerning, I do agree that his vote there wasn't very passionate.
Lycanfire: Lycanfire votes Shea in his #70, without any reasoning at all, which shows he doesn't care to progress RVS. He states he is busy in his [urlhttps://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?p=9907370#p9907370]#430[/url] which is a recurring excuse. In his #932 he states Eddie and Dunn are lynch bait, but doesn't really look into people that are pushing Dunn. Which feels like he is saying that just to say that, but doesn't actually have the interest to follow up and defend those players. He returns to his CES vote #1369, while not trying to push the wagon even though he says he wants people to be on it. In his #1575 he states he didn't do much with it or interact with him due to previous pages being TvT, which doesn't seem believable to me. In his #1669 He states his underperformance is due to people not wanting to play, which is another excuse. He also states my global reads needs changes but he doesn't have solid reads to back his up, especially his town reads. His read on Eddie is mabye scum, for voting Marquis, who he feels is lynchbait. His #1839 seems like a big effort to move from the CES wagon he was sitting on onto Eddie who he was reading as maybe scum. A wagon analysis before he flips, not after. After my interaction with him, he seemed to get better at interacting near the end of Day 2, but it doesn't do much to improve my read on him. I find it to be good play regardless of his alignment there. In his #2222 he opens once again with his push on CES. He's doing better this time by asking LQ 'why no vote CES?' in his #2309, yet again, I think it's null due to him not doing it originally. I have called it out so he knows what to do to keep playing as if he is town. He town reads Shea for being unwavering with Davo's scumread on him, but that's it. It's a bit weak, and he hasn't really tried to sort him, nor did he ask about his direction on Dunnstral, who he believes is lynchbait. Scum. His read on Shea doesn't really factor in that Shea is pushing for Dunn when Lycanfire stated Dunn was lynchbait. Again, showing that he said that only to say that, not actually backing that up.
Shea: Starts out voting NSG in his #82 because he doesn't like that she used wifom, and that she was voting in a way that he felt didn't progress RVS. Yet, a page before, Lycanfire votes Shea in his #70, without any reasoning at all. Shea never asks or comments on Lycan's post here. In his #440 Mentions Tchill and LQ and a pool of players who might be scum with them, but doesn't mention Lycanfire. He doesn't really seem to try to sort Lycanfire, he just townbins him. I still think this is a concerning play from Shea: #435. He interrupts his push on Lycan and doesn't actually comment. He states in his defense #1673 that he just thought it was garbage and felt no need to defend Lycan to his scumread. Yet he hasn't really done much with Quick after reading him as town. During Day 2, I was pushing Quick again but he was not really pushing much, he just commented a bit when I was talking about his progression. Doesn't feel like he had passion for LQ as scum during Day 2, and was content with sitting on Eddie from the beginning. Him wanting to look into Dunn doesn't really feel like he's trying that hard to find mafia, and Lycan did make the point that [Eddie and Dunn are both lynchbait]. (Note if he has ever criticized Shea for pushing Dunn) I do like that he's attempting to work with me more after my original concerns, but still feel he is scum. I don't think his read on Lycan is convincing, and don't understand why he has Dunn as scummier than NSG. NSG feels scummier than Dunn and I feel Shea is running out of options. (Although I think NSG is town, just that she seems like scum from her recent play) #2083 In general, Shea posts reads lists but doesn't really give reasoning along with them, which doesn't help me see why he feels a certain way. Scum.
These posts were less than 24 hours apart.In post 2368, Ranmaru wrote:Alright, Lycanfire. I think I'm just entirely wrong right now, and am re-reading my reads and I just see that I'm too focused on you and Shea being the team. If you are town then I just think you are wrong on CES most importantly. (Also I don't care what Skirt has to say, he can shove it, yet I still respect your team because Transcend and Giga are on it, also I do appreciate you not wanting to make me replace out) Right now, the most sense you are making is with Dan to me right now. LQ is not scum. I'm thinking the team is actually [Marquis, Davsto, Action Dan]. The more I re-read CES's posts the more town he seems to me.
SCUM [Marquis > Davsto > Action Dan | Dunnstral | Lycanfire > Shea > CES > NSG > Gamma > Quick > Ranmaru] TOWN
Here is a list of people that he declared scum yesterday:
With votes:
NSG
Shea
Marquis
ActionDan
LQ
CES
With read lists (no explanation)
Marquis
Davsto
Action Dan
NSG
gamma
With Largish Cases (some explanation):
CES
Me
Lycanfire
LQ
ActionDan
NSG
For those keeping track at home thats literally every player in the game EXCEPT dunn.
Town doesn't vote like this. Town cares about having reads and cares about using those reads to lynch scum. Ran doesn't care about having reads he cares about town momentum and following and directing it to where it will be a misslynch.
His silence on dunnestral yesterday is particularly deafening. In a day where he voted and cased and read listed literally every other player in the game, somehow dunnestral warranted only mentions like this one:
Seeing as marquis and dunn have been pretty similar players in this game not considering the CES flip, the fact that he was frequently trying to push in the direction of marquis but literally never in the direction of dunn is really odd.In post 3165, Ranmaru wrote:Only comparison in my mind is that Marquis is suspicious to me, while Dunn is null. Only concern I have with Dunn now is that he's not voting nor is he helping right now, and posting else where. I would expect both will be lynched either way. I just suspect Marquis will be the red flip. I also think Marquis's recent posts are those of a survival instinct. Can you talk to me more about the bias thing?
His interactions with CES also consisted basically of calling him scum in a group of three without going after him, voting him later, hopping off that wagon, hopping back on, and then hopping off and declaring ces as town (again with no reasoning) and doing everything in his power to stop that lynch.
Stuff like his interactions with gamma are also kind of bizarre to me. He was so confident in gamma being town that he declared yesterday that he wanted him to decide the lylo lynch.
All of a sudden, with ces as the most likely wagon and gamma on it, he starts pushing gamma.In post 2735, Ranmaru wrote:I do like the idea that we should elect our pick for lylo vote controller. We should proceed like this:
Elect: Gamma
That's my pick. He's currently my strongest town read. Lycanfire is a good pick too.
I just don't understand how you go from someone being your strongest town read all of a sudden to being in your lynch pool less than 3 RL days later.
Just to be clear, I am not attacking gamma for lacking consistency. I think that town players often lack consistency, and that actually consistency can be something of a scum tell (see: ces). What I am attacking him for is instead having no reads. Just throwing literally everyones name out there and seeing which ones get traction, then immediately switching on a dime when they don't.
3) His constant buddying. Ran has used his "town read" status in this game super hard. He even tried to do it today, when he said "no the lynch is me or x today." to try to lead the town into doing what he wants. He frequently goes from calling people scum to buddying them less than a page later, trying to pull them in on whatever lynch he happens to favor at this time. He's not trying to determine dans alignment when he says "I want you voting this" he's not trying to determine my alignment when he says "I want you on this wagon." He's trying to buddy us.
4) This is perhaps the most important point and builds off of the rest. Ranmaru doesn't have reads. He has lynches. He doesn't just switch scum reads, he goes from not scum reading someone at all to demanding that they be lynched immediately with full gusto. For someone who changes his reads as much as he does, one would think a town thought process would be more cautious. More along the lines of "Oh, I thought Dan was scum before but now I think hes not my read on dan must not have been that strong, but now I'm kind of thinking it might be shea lets see if I can pull out this read a little more because I think I was wrong about dan." He doesn't do that. He goes immediately from hard trying to lynch dan to trying to hard lynch me while trying to pull in dan, who he had just been trying to lynch previously. This basically shows a thought process where he doesn't care if hes right, he doesn't care if his reads are accurate, they all can apply the same amount of force towards a lynch.tout comprendre c'est tout pardonner-
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1) For yesterday the people hes voted is listed in my post under the heading "with votes".In post 3636, Gamma Emerald wrote:1) Can you provide the list of all the people he's voted? I think with some lateral thinking I can disprove this point.
2) Fair, although sometimes his switches make sense (such as when he switched to scumreading me).
3) Why is trying to campaign for votes scummy? I think there could be better way of doing it (say, asking for thoughts on the case and saying if you agree vote with me) but it just seems like someone trying to lead. Plus I feel like there is a way to sort with those requests: seeing who supports and is against scum lynches.
4) Fair point, it seems Ran has been adjusting reads to what's beneficial for him.
2) Sometimes they did, but everyones actions sometimes make sense. Like I said, switching your reads is not a scum tell. It was the way he switched his reads and how often and how he acted like his previous reads no longer even existed after he switched them. I also don't think his switch to scum reading you made much sense reading the transition. it was kind of like he was doing meta and declaring you lock town because of it and then all of a sudden he declared you as scum because of some different meta. Why was he picking and choosing meta to scum read vs town read you at different times? Am I missing something here?
3) Trying to take a lead is not inherently scummy, but the way he did it was scummy. Campaigning for votes on whatever wagon hes pushing with as far as I can tell very little lead up. One post, action dan is scummy and he wants me to lynch action dan. The next post I am scummy and he wants action dan to lynch me. These worldviews are not compatible with each other. They suggest to me that the lynch is what is important, not who it is on and not who is voting it, which I would describe as the opposite of a town mindset.tout comprendre c'est tout pardonner-
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Lycan your case is kind of awful. You are saying its a proof of LQ scum, but you spend more time talking about CES than you do about LQ.
I don't see a single point that makes LQ more likely to be scum in there, just a whole bunch of CES Wifom and confirmation bias.
Like I don't even understand what the vote history point is supposed to mean.tout comprendre c'est tout pardonner-
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What?In post 3678, Gamma Emerald wrote:Here's why scum kills someone other than Lycan: it puts town at a numbers disadvantage. Not saying this is anything against LQ being scum but the logic here should be clear as crystal.tout comprendre c'est tout pardonner-
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for fucks sakes you then claimed that he was scum for like the rest of the day ALSO based on meta.In post 3758, Ranmaru wrote:(By the way, I give a meta case on Gamma Day 3, I think I strongly backed the reasoning for why I believe Gamma is obvious town, I'd like for you to look at that at least, and tell me what you think)tout comprendre c'est tout pardonner-
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I'm not a huge fan of dans reasoning on Dunn. I think that he's scum. I think ranmaru is more obviously scum though.
I saw his response to my case and I have not found time to respond to it yet, but he just keeps trying to rewrite history w/his opinions.
Gamma was obv town except when he wasn't when ces was on the chopping block. It was for meta but the reason he was scum was also meta.tout comprendre c'est tout pardonner-
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Thestatusquo He/HimSheaHe/Him
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Response to Ranmaru, or: More reasons Ran is scum.
1) this is missing my point. Yes, you were wrong when it mattered. But the reason this makes you scum is because of the volume of your suspicions. You have a paper trail with literally every player in this game where you have strongly called them both town and scum with the possible exception of Dunn. This gives you plausible deniability. You can claim to have held whatever position is expedient to you at the time. Indeed, we've seen that today. Here are two statements you've made today:In post 3684, Ranmaru wrote:Shea #3635:
1. I was wrong when it mattered. That is true. Yet how does that make me scum? Does that go alongside the rest of my play?
2. I do vote a lot, I like to use my vote as a tool. I do care who is lynched, I just change my mind, a lot. I have always tunneled in the past, and being a player with inaccurate reads, I note myself town reading scum. So, I try to pick up a whimsical style similar to Vi. That was indeed 24 hours apart. My reads have been influenced by A50's, and when I see Lycanfire respond to me, it just vibes town to me. Therefore I stop the push. Note that, I was not voting Lycan, but you.
3. Yes, everywhere except Dunn, true. I ignore players like Dunn, accepting that they'd be lynched on a day like today anyway, while prioritizing others that may have scum intent. I was never convinced by your argument he was scum simply for doing nothing.
4. I think you said it yourself, a team of Shea, Quick, and Gamma make sense to my Town point of view, if I think CES is town. There wasn't anything blaringly scummy about CES, only a smidge. I think your point here isn't valid since you yourself hadn't wanted CES before your pool. If I couldn't see the scumminess of CES from that case, I'm not sure why you did. In a skim of NSG's case, I thought 'this is mostly things I have already thought of myself' as some of her points did mention questions I asked to CES.
5. I'll tell you that a few times I purposely tried to swing people I was publicly scumreading onto wagons, like Quick at the time I was pushing CES. Other times, I simply reconsidered the player. I do understand the use of buddying as a tool, and I use it. Usually, I use it with town reads. In this game, this is a game where I only have one strong town read, and that is Gamma. The only other person I could and would have loved working with is Shea/Quick. Quick never really worked with me when I tried. You took a while.
6. I'm not generally cautious, no. I would like you to give an example of how you think I should have played. Generally, I will push for my scum reads to be lynched. You are right, I don't do the 'I don't think it's Dan anymore... I think it's Shea'. Although you quoted a post of me doing that with Lycanfire... Do you mean that I don't publish that in thread? As in, my thought process when I switched gears? I do agree that I do switch gears at the snap of a hat.
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In general, this is just my playstyle as town. I care more about leading and finding scum, I've just had plenty of trouble actually finding them. It's more of my reads not being accurate, and I'm constantly flip flopping. Also, Quick is the #1 reason for my confusion as well. This is the first time I have flip flopped this much, most especially on Quick. I do like to buddy, I don't think buddying in and of it self is a scumtell. I do like to lead the town in doing what I want, though. This is true. I have already explained this though, this is me coping with the fact I'm not right, so I try to get it right. Then in the end, I get it wrong anyway. I've noticed that being obviously townie, is not the only skill one should have in mafia, and my reads definetly need polishing. I have scum reads that I want to lynch, that I always change my mind on due to my play style of being whimsical, so I can avoid tunneling and being wrong. Saying this in-game undermines my own credibility in game, but it's already shot due to missing the CES wagon.
Self-Meta:
Family Mafia
Crossover Mafia
a )
This is true. This IS a thing you said. But its not the whole or even most of the story. The whole of the story includes the fact that you never seriously pushed this with the fervency of your other pushes and when it came right down to it you took many actions both overt and not, which fought against the CES lynch, while firmly declaring him to be town.In post 3554, Ranmaru wrote:Shadoweh: A50 thought he was scum with CES due to VCA. (Never 2 on the same wagon, except for the lynch, all 3 on it as of Feb 06) I thought the team of Shea, Lycanfire, CES made sense. I pushed them. Then each time Lycan responded, I was like "Hell no my gut is screaming town." It's not depression, I'm looking into the future.
b )
Again, this is not the whole, or even MOST of the story. It's true you wrote a meta case on gamma. Its true you declared him town. But then you completely ignored your own meta case and declared him scum and attempted to push him when CES was on the block. It is completely disingenuous of you to make statements like this.In post 3758, Ranmaru wrote:(By the way, I give a meta case on Gamma Day 3, I think I strongly backed the reasoning for why I believe Gamma is obvious town, I'd like for you to look at that at least, and tell me what you think)
I am specifically drawing a delineation between your actions and your words because your words can be used to support any conclusion you want them to support, and today you are doing that to try to deflect suspicion on you. The two above statements are examples. So when we look at the balance of the things you've said, we can't draw meaningful conclusions. We can, however, look at your actions and the results of those actions and theory craft about what you were trying to accomplish.
I think you were trying to accomplish was to create exactly what you're doing today: a situation where you can realistically say "I thought X was town/scum" for any player. And you're literally doing this, but when we drill deeper behind the rhetoric the reality is that you have supported enthusiastically lynches on townies and tried your damndest to stop a lynch on scum. A player who coincidentally and conveniently you never pushed even though you listed him as a scum read several times.
2) This response is missing my point. My point wasn't that you vote a lot, but that your degree of pushes is the same. There is so self reflection that says "huh, if I was wrong about this player who I am now town reading maybe I might be wrong about this player who I am now scum reading." When I see players with the style you're describing here, vote hopping is usually accompanied by information gathering. I.e. the frequency of the votes is used as a tool to discern alignment. It doesn't look to me like thats what you're doing. It looks to me like you're voting and then attempting to get the new person lynched with little regard to the fact that you were just declaring them town earlier. I don't see reaction testing in your posting, I see ambivalence about who eventually gets lynched.
3) Except you don't ignore players like Dunn. Marquis is a very similar player to dunn in this game and you've not ignored him at all. He's been at the top of your suspicions lists several times. You've voted him several times. You've pushed him several times. It's simply not accurate to say you "ignore players like dunn" because we have a player in this game who is very similar to dunn in terms of play and lurking and content who you have not ignored even a little bit. What's the difference between those two players, Ran?
4) If its mostly things you had thought of yourself why weren't you pushing him? Why did you fight against his lynch when his response to the case and to pressure was so bad? Why did you disregard my meta reasons for attacking CES based off of his response?
Also, I said that team made sense not in the sense that it was likely, but in the sense that my teammate cheetory thought that Gamma (in his meta analysis of him) wouldn't take scum unless he had the express purpose of being bus fodder, and that this really only made sense with LQ as a teammate. You are taking it horribly out of context I think. I don't recall saying anything like that any other time.
5) This is a game where you really only have one strong town read, which is gamma, who you spent a large percentage of yesterday trying to get lynched.
I'll just let that sink in.
Anyway, this whole point is just you saying "Yes, I use buddying as scum. Here are some people who I buddied this game." which is basically conceding my point. You frequently tried to bring people along on wagons with you who you had been calling scum earlier. I can really think of only TWO reasons for a player to do that.
a ) You are attempting to buddy, as previously discussed, and repair a relationship for needing to not be voted by them later.
b ) You are attempting to get them on to town wagons so you can attack them for it later.
I really don't see a town motivation for "attempting to get people you are scum reading onto wagons." If you want to tell me what it is I'm all ears.
6) My point is that your reads don't matter. Its not that you lack consistency, but rather that you don't seem to care at all about what you thought previously. When I have a scum read, I have REASONS that I have that scum read. If I then think that player is more likely to be town, I still have those reasons, and I still think about them and I still value my previous reads. An example of that for me this game would be my LQ reads, who I had to grudgingly admit was town because I don't see scum motivation in a lot of the plays he made.
When you go "gamma is scum, lynch gamma right now!" and then ten seconds later you're like "gamma is town, never lynch gamma! gamma, lynch dan with me!" you are basically saying "everything I thought earlier I don't care about now." And I just don't see....ANY reason why that would be the case. The way you disregard your own thoughts and reads suggests to me that you a) don't care about them very much or b ) they were never particularly well thought out in the first place.
Anyway, yes davsto I'm joining you.
VOTE: ranmarutout comprendre c'est tout pardonner-
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Wouldn't you expect a town player to not think they're scum?In post 3795, Shadoweh wrote:
I think people do get angry about being lynched over people they think are scum, I don't think this is the same thing.In post 3793, Thestatusquo wrote:You don't think players think about how likely they are to be ML? I definitely do.
It's like, pre-flip rage? in an "I played so much better then you" way. I'm basically saying it sounds like he doesn't think he's scum.
O.otout comprendre c'est tout pardonner-
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Thestatusquo He/HimSheaHe/Him
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Thestatusquo He/HimSheaHe/Him
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This is another point about you that I should have brought up. The way you ask questions and generate content doesn't feel town to me. You pick some hyper specific detail that can't actually be that relevant to anything, then you ask someone to explain it. Then you hound them to explain it until they do, usually ignoring the fact that you'd know the answer if you had just been reading the thread. It reads like someone faking scum hunting to me.tout comprendre c'est tout pardonner-
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Thestatusquo He/HimSheaHe/Him
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Like voting who to have in lylo based on if they "deserve to be there." is a way to lose a lot of mafia games. Scum players can play well. Town players can play badly. None of this has any ramifications for their alignment.
All that matters if you want to win is a probabilistic determination of who is the most likely to be scum. Focusing on anything other than that is a distraction.tout comprendre c'est tout pardonner-
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Yeah.
Strong town:
Davsto, I like his actions on the ces wagon and I like his tone and posts for the most part. He and I seem to be drawing a lot of the same conclusions the last two days and while I realize thats not a strong point, it does make me feel more comfortable with him. He's also the player I feel like I am most likely to be wrong about in my strong town pile. He's capable of playing this game as scum I think, I just don't think that he is. If that makes sense.
LQ: I don't think his actions come from scum, especially the bizarre meta cases on you and his continued persistent illogical attacks on me. I think scum fakes better cases than those. I think scum doesn't attempt to use the logic he's used in the way he's used it. Cheetory6 has a town tell he's pretty fond of, which he calls "being confidently wrong" which basically means that scum players are more likely to qualify their opinions and their pushes and make sure they're good than town players. When someone is this stubborn and this wrong about something but you can tell they really actually believe the things they're saying, its a hard town tell.
Medium Town:
ActionDan: This read is similar to davsto but less strong because he spent time yesterday trying to deflect the wagon, but ultimately I liked how he interacted with CES yesterday and he's another player who I have been generally agreeing with when he posts and I liked how he stepped up his thread presence when I asked him to. That felt super town to me.
Shadoweh: This is really as simple as not really thinking CES' play makes sense as a long protracted bus. This is one of the things that I think lycanfire gets right when he says that the way CES played seems to have been designed to minimize connections and information as much as possible, which doesn't make much sense with marq-ces scum.
Weak town:
You: I have less justification for this than others, but call it gut. Cheet thought you were most likely to be town when he did his meta dive and you seem generally invested in figuring out the game. Your doubt today has read as super real to me, and thats a pretty hard thing to fake. I don't love your interactions with ranmaru and I don't love your interactions with CES which is the main thing keeping you from being a stronger town read.tout comprendre c'est tout pardonner-
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Thestatusquo He/HimSheaHe/Him
- Shea
- Shea
- Posts: 14381
- Joined: July 27, 2006
- Pronoun: He/Him
- Location: Chicago!
This is fucking terrible play and you know it.In post 3820, LicketyQuickety wrote:
I don't care who is Town. Dunn needs to get lynched.In post 3819, Gamma Emerald wrote:Thanks Shea. Quick and Dunn it's your turn: describe why you townread who you townread.tout comprendre c'est tout pardonner-
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Thestatusquo He/HimSheaHe/Him
- Shea
- Shea
- Posts: 14381
- Joined: July 27, 2006
- Pronoun: He/Him
- Location: Chicago!
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Thestatusquo He/HimSheaHe/Him
- Shea
- Shea
- Posts: 14381
- Joined: July 27, 2006
- Pronoun: He/Him
- Location: Chicago!
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Thestatusquo He/HimSheaHe/Him
- Shea
- Shea
- Posts: 14381
- Joined: July 27, 2006
- Pronoun: He/Him
- Location: Chicago!
This is completely disingenuous. Between the time that I didn't vote for CES and the time you say you were surprised 2 things had happened which you are now conveniently pretending didn't happen.In post 3847, Gamma Emerald wrote:
I guess this is fair. Why wouldn't someone else that you accused EoD3 be more cleared by your logic than me?In post 3827, Ranmaru wrote:Let's talk about my point of view with Gamma. Remember that he (not just him though) didn't follow me on CES when I pushed for him. It rubbed me off as wrong to see Quick, then Gamma, and then you vote when you were all not interested in his wagon earlier. #3211, #3181,
#3152. Especially since I tried to gain the votes of Gamma and Quick and both weren't on board with me. That was my point of view there. CES flipping scum, makes it more likely that I was originally correct on Gamma. In the three man scum team of Shea-Quick-Gamma, he would be the one that would least likely fit in my mind (since there are only three scum and CES flipped scum), so obviously I don't think what I said meta wise the second time applies. Again, it was all sparked by Quick's weird push on me with reference to my Gamma read, but I realize now that again, I was just wrong.
a) There was a case made and a terrible defense of it which didn't at all fit with my meta of town ces. (something I've explained multiple times and you would know if you were doing more than just cherry picking to throw shade.
b) we were 3 days from deadline as opposed to 14.
You're acting like the circumstances between the two situations are exactly the same but in fact they are different both in terms of my read on ces changing AND in terms of where we were in the day, both of which are sufficient on their own for me to change my vote.
Also, given that you have also attacked me for having "Reads that are too static" whatever that means, its fucking completely ass backwards that you now come and attack me for having a read that changed.
Like, what exactly what you like from me? First I don't reevaluate enough according to you (even though I've been constantly reevaluating) and then when I vote one of those reevaluations who is scum, all of a sudden you're confused by it and it doesn't make sense to you even though it makes perfect sensetout comprendre c'est tout pardonner-
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Thestatusquo He/HimSheaHe/Him
- Shea
- Shea
- Posts: 14381
- Joined: July 27, 2006
- Pronoun: He/Him
- Location: Chicago!
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Thestatusquo He/HimSheaHe/Him
- Shea
- Shea
- Posts: 14381
- Joined: July 27, 2006
- Pronoun: He/Him
- Location: Chicago!