Team Mafia 2018: White Flag — Day Six

[Lycanfire]

Lycan

: Why are you voting CES without interacting with him, nor casing him? Why aren't you pushing for his lynch

Mainly hesitation to write off the last few pages as TvT (is it just noise, am I missing anything). Lack of time to fully justify my reads. Ask me again later about that.

CES/Dan are obvscum. Whenever I push CES some scumfuck like Dan or NSG comes out to try to discredit me. Not building consensus on that worries me about where the third is, but maybe this is a giant shitstorm of noise.

And for all your emotion and over-the-top tone re: your supposed scumread on me, it's incredibly difficult to believe it's genuine when this read came from mastina. In other words I flat out don't believe the read on me is genuinely that strong when you only even switched focus to me because of one of mastina's random-ass "readslist"s. It feels way more like you know you have to stick to me as an only viable alternative to your mislynch... other than your scumpartner LQ.

Why are people talking so much about teams at this point. I mean I know why - because people have done it in this game and gotten away with it so people just keep doing it.

Stop, it's not helpful.

This is true, but at the same time three people are trying to infuence the town. In this moment three different people are steering the town with an anti-town agenda. Looking at one person a day is how every game of mafia has been lost for town.

[Postie]

Something just came up that RC thinks makes Ran likely to be scum but we can't talk about it right now. Will do later.
I don't actually agree with RC though; still ridiculously townread sauce.

[MathBlade]

Votecount 2.6

EddieFenix(4)

~ LicketyQuickety, Postie, Thestatusquo, Davsto

Marquis(2)

~ EddieFenix, Cogito Ergo Sum

LicketyQuickety(2)

~ Ranmaru, Marquis

Cogito Ergo Sum(1)

~ Lycanfire


Not Voting (4): Gamma Emerald, ActionDan, northsidegal, Dunnstral

With 13 alive it takes 7 to lynch.

Day 2 deadline is in (expired on 2018-02-18 19:30:00)

[Gamma Emerald]

Hi will get back to this soon, I'm motivated to make sense of all of this after listening to some Hamilton, who knew that of all things would be good for mafia inspirational songs for me

[Ranmaru]

Postie

: LQ is currently my top scum read (yet it's waning), so I would push for him over Eddie, simple as that. Just as you would push for Eddie over another scum read. Before this, I'd be asking him questions so he could clarify his actions. That post is asking him to provide what results his reactionary play style has produced for him. I'm saying

if

LQ is town, that he should stop that, as I'm trying to reconsider him (and have once already when I voted Screen). This is all because he asked me about this post: 1532. I'm waiting on his response.

Lycanfire

: Can you specify who you think is TvT and why? Alright, when you next get a chance can you give me a few reads? I don't see how Dan is obvscum, can you walk me through that?

LQ

: Is RC bussing in every game the basis of your read on Postie?

[Ranmaru]

NSG: A50 is following the game, and he says he wants to work with you and your team if possible.

[northsidegal]

i'm pretty sure that my team and postie's team are on the same wavelength when it comes to ran's slot. ran, what's a50 interested in specifically? because i'd be willing to hear it out.

more specific responses incoming.

[Ranmaru]

I will let you know when he responds.

[northsidegal]

Can you have them give reasons why? Also, can I see a vote from you? Or an explanation for why you aren't voting? I especially want to see KMD's thoughts, and I know he'd be the type to give good notes.

i asked him to go a bit more in-depth just recently, still waiting on that. in contrast to my usual style (or what i like to think of my usual style), i think i'd rather hold off on voting until i'm a bit more confident in this position.

If you are town why do you hesitate in making a vote and seeing what bites?

same reason as above – i feel like we're (or at least, i'm) currently in a position where i'd rather be more thoughtful in where i place my vote rather than more reactionary. i feel like i probably didn't give my tchill vote enough thought and thus i'm partially to blame for that (in addition to the inactivity), so it's something that i'm now trying to avoid.

Cogito ergo sum – this started because ces really just wasn't doing anything. he was pretty much one-note pushing marquis for a comparison to the 2015 team mafia white flag game where marquis was scum, and he was kind of obtuse in answering my questions. Granted, that doesn't make someone scum, but as i've already described the switch from thinking the tchill wagon was no better than random to scumreading screen for the replace in seems scummy to me.

What started?

My scumread on ces, which i am now reconsidering (from talking to teammates, new team mafia-wide info, and from feeling like i don't actually have all that good of a reason to scumread him).

[northsidegal]

Me and mathdino both agree that llamarble was killed to break up town cohesion, and that the post we should all be looking at is 875. To that end, he thinks that postie vs tsq is a pointless debate to have as that'll be resolved itself as the game goes on.

Wouldn't #1160 be the obvious post to look at if that was your point of view?

It's moreso about the plan than the reads, although they're both pretty applicable.

i think cogito ergo sum's reason for switching his read on the tchill slot is kind of strange – for someone who said that the wagon was little better than a random lynch, i don't think a sudden switch to thinking that it landed on scum happens the way that it seemed to for him.

I think that's pretty significantly overstating how positive I felt about the lynch. Screen's play helped me make peace with it happening but I wasn't surprised when he flipped town.

i mean, you asked eddie to put him at l-1 and then hammered him. i've seen people play that way in relation to people who they townread getting wagoned, but i still think it doesn't make much sense to do that to someone if you think they're going to flip town.

[northsidegal]

CES/Dan are obvscum. Whenever I push CES some scumfuck like Dan or NSG comes out to try to discredit me. Not building consensus on that worries me about where the third is, but maybe this is a giant shitstorm of noise.

No words can better capture my feelings with regards to this than that eyeroll does, but i'll talk about it anways. Where have i once discredited you, especially in relation to a cogito ergo sum read? if you've been paying attention, up until this point i've been scumreading cogito ergo sum myself. any time i've talked about you has never been to discredit, unless you consider just stating a scumread on you (and the reasoning for it) to be discrediting, which i don't.

There's a lot of stuff that's come up recently that's made me willing to reconsider most of my reads, but this is making me pause on that.

[northsidegal]

things mathdino wants me to say:

he was the one giving me kmd's thoughts but they were from a chat with kmd and when we were talking he had closed the chatbox and kmd was offline, so he didn't have them.
he think's cogito ergo sum's push on gamma is terrible.
he said that postie is town.


Oh yeah, and one of the more important things that we discussed that he wants me to start up in this game – so far in the tournament it appears like, as a general trend, the players who prefer scum, are good at scum, or would just in general be more likely to pick scum... are the ones who have flipped scum. To that end we both collectively agreed to move actiondan up in our preferred lynch order, and he says that quick is far less likely to be scum and we shouldn't lynch him.

[Ranmaru]

Lycanfire

: In your #932 you declare Eddie and Dunn as lynchbait. Yet, at no point during Day 2 do you talk about him or the cases brought up on Eddie. Why is that? What is your read on Eddie?

[Ranmaru]

Gamma

: If you are lost, I suggest you re-read the thread. Day 1, specifically.

[Gamma Emerald]

I'm not really lost, it's just that this whole affair seems jumbled up and messed up and I don't know where to start with it

[Ranmaru]

CES

: What is your read on TSQ and Lycanfire? Now that you feel better about Postie, how does that affect your read on her and Eddie?

[Gamma Emerald]

wanted to do this today but unfortunately got roped into other things. Will probably happen tomorrow.

[Thestatusquo]

Ok I will make myself do this game today despite how busy work is.

[Davsto]

Good post from you. Here's the thing with the second game, I replaced out of that second game when I didn't have my head on proper and we had to tag in someone who would try and drive the slot properly.

Again, this falls under the same criticism I have of LQ's post - explain to me why not having your head on proper would still enable you to play "better", i.e. to your town meta? Surely this would be an explanation for a bad-looking scumgame or towngame, not a good-looking one?

This time though, I got my head a bit off tilt, but slowly coming back to proper. Right now, you gotta think long term and look down the scope.

As I noted, this happened in one of your scum games too - it seems like your meta is most accurate on the first day.

Mastina's made it clear to me to make sure that I let people know that Marquis is the "loose end" that can be thrown under the fastest bus possible when necessary IF we allow for them to run this game. Postie and Ranmaru are the 2 long term scum. When the time comes that they do bus him, it shouldn't clear them as town. My slot is going to flip green and they're going to try and sweep it under the rug.

Trust me, if you flip town and Marquis flips scum then I'm gonna take a step back and reevaluate the whole game because that'd mean my reads are totally fucked lmao

[Thestatusquo]

Ok, this is going to be a bit of a long post. To cut down noise I'll bold who I am responding to and link the post I'm talking about and spoiler the actual response.

@postie

Post 1449

Spoiler:

One of the earliest things that had me move postie into the town category is her approach to RVS as well as her posts in the beginning of the day. They just seemed super interested in spurring discussion and creating sorts as well as helping other people sort. Her interaction with NSG day 1 is a good example of that latter thing, but as for the former, specifically post 14 and post 16 pinged my towndar super hard.

I liked that the posts in isolation attempted to bring the RVS into sharper less R focus early on, and in particular I liked post 16 as a clarification on post 14 quite a bit. This isn’t really something that scum do. Postie’s post 14 was definitely good enough from both a scum and town perspective. She wasn’t going to get any heat for it. It fit in perfectly with how RVS goes, but the inclination and motivation to go back in and clarify this early is super townie.

In addition to that, hiplop was in my ear calling postie town because he thought that the amount you were deferring to RC early on implied a nervousness and lack of confidence that he would expect in postie town and not scum. Basically he said that a lot of your early posts read like RC had made them, which makes sense to him with you as town but not as scum because he expects you to ask RC for input more as town than scum because he thinks you’re not a very confident town player.

Basically it was a culmination of small town tells and hippo telling me that you were town. Seemed good enough to throw you in the town pile for me.

@ran

Post 1432

Spoiler:

My ces read is basically that CES is being useless but that this doesn't make him scum. If you look at The first mafia, for instance, he's very similar in my eyes. Hyper focused on weirdly specific parts of the game. Relatively same level of participation in the game by total post count, its similar right down to the hammer graphic he posted in this game. He's a little bit more aggressive in his hyper specific focuses, but that's a pretty small difference in play. Basically I think everyone scum reading ces isn't really bothering to meta him. I'm not saying he's town, as you can see by my read list but I think lockscumming him over other players doesn't make a lot of sense once you look deeper into his meta.

@ran

Post 1572

Spoiler:

I think that LQs reaction that wagon basically (jumping on, jumping off, trying to feel the waters for various counter wagons.) was not consistent with how I would expect scum to approach a wagon with a town player. Is there some scum equity in the way he played? Yeah. And he's still suspect in my eyes, because as you mentioned theres a lot of LQ stuff that is anti town (I myself made those cases yesterday.) and that doesn't make a lot of sense in terms of trying to find scum but does make a lot of sense in terms of trying to figure out who he can ML. Is it possible that scum-LQ thought that the tchill wagon was guaranteed so they thought they could act in unsure townie ways towards it? Yeah thats possible. Could they be scum trying to stay off a wagon they knew was townie? Yeah, that's also possible. If anything I think LQs reaction to the wagon is the closest thing to what postie accused me of earlier. BUT I'm putting LQ on the back burner because I think that the case on Eddie is really strong. And I want to sheep it.

Let me know if I missed something or if theres anything else I need to respond to right now. The state of the game seems basically to me to be eddie and the resistence to eddie. I'm still on the eddie side.

[Thestatusquo]

Actually I'm pretty sure reasoning out my response to ran makes me think that there's a higher chance of scum LQ approaching the wagon the way he did than I was previously thinking.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

i mean, you asked eddie to put him at l-1 and then hammered him. i've seen people play that way in relation to people who they townread getting wagoned, but i still think it doesn't make much sense to do that to someone if you think they're going to flip town.

I think "expecting to flip town" vs. "expecting to flip scum" is a very unhelpful dichotomy. I initially thought the odds of hitting scum in Tchill was in the 25% area (6 such lynches = likely loss) and that then went up to, say, 35% (6 such lynches = okay odds of winning) which given the general situation seemed like the best I could hope for, so I ended the Day so we could move on.

CES

: What is your read on TSQ and Lycanfire? Now that you feel better about Postie, how does that affect your read on her and Eddie?

Shea to me mostly has seemed very Sheaey, which is surprisingly helpful because it means I feel very much at ease sheeping 'marble's read on him. Lycanfire I also tend to think is town; I can't be the only person who this sort of thing happens but Lycan's definitely not the first proponent of the "CES is just obvscum" school of thing and I don't remember that ever coming from scum. The vehemence showcased, however undesirable, is also something scum would have a hard time faking.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Vote: Eddie

[Ranmaru]

TSQ: Thank you. What's your read on Lycanfire at the moment? NSG, I'll get to you later after I get home from work.

[Davsto]

Also I'm waaayyy happier with nsg right now since they've posted a bit than I was during my catchup. Keep it up pls