Large Normal 247 - Postgame

[Psyche]

but if i turn out to be wrong on this i'll give you kudos

[Psyche]

is admittedly unlikely but i dont think kay should be ruled out per se
ive towncased her pretty nearly the exact same way in the game she was scum in

[Psyche]

sure sure
if gera flips town id probably be most likely to reconsider oblivion over kay

[Psyche]

i sheep good cases

[Psyche]

speaking of LHF wasn't that what you were pushing up to like the hour before hammer?

[Psyche]

natural explanation would be that oblivion is just that sure gypyx/thomith are scum
but can't really follow how oblivion could feel that way so confidently though

[Psyche]

is ok. i was nearly locktown about gera for much of D3, so i'm definitely not going to take from D4 that i'm always right and must stick to my guns or whatever.

[Psyche]

ughh i have a meeting in 3 minutes why am i here

[Psyche]

surprise!

[Psyche]

do you guys believe in destiny

[Psyche]

is easier and potentially more fun to just try to win today

[Psyche]

otoh maybe we just let LF have this lim. as a treat. a bit too early in the day for me to talk that way though

[Psyche]

yeah! lets us finish the game today

[Psyche]

town:
Psyche
Lycanfire
Gypyx

maybe not town:
Random Nurse
Oblivion
KayJayQueue
Enchant

done!
i think at this point the only one on this list who might ever scumread me is RN. maybe enchant? i think i got kay totally pocketed if she's town. whatever the town-equivalent of pocketed is, anyway!

[Psyche]

anyway i read through LF's posts again and still think RN is town.
LF's case is somewhat close to a gish gallop though -- quite long and i'm a bit too lazy to try to contradict every part of it
think his approach for using vca and relational tells to sort slots like RN and potentially also kay is a bit limited when applied to players who might not reliably come to reasonable post-to-post conclusions about the status of their strategic interests
maybe the right compromise that includes enchant's preference is just to lim RN and my preference to avoid tedious debate and return to the topic tomorrow -- supposing he really is town

[Psyche]

ah a typo in that last line

[Psyche]

nahhh im being impatient let's see what happens when the caffeine kicks in maybe i'll actually find a scumread

[Psyche]

your preference is to pick a townread and then hurry and lim the rest, i think!

[Psyche]

Oh, I think you're implying we actually need a lim pool of size 3, not 4.
And that would be correct.
I don't know if an additional townread is doable at this time.
I'd be willing to add RN or Oblivion, but I don't think there's enough of a consensus about either.
And I would be very concerned if everyone acted like kay or you should be townlocked.

[Psyche]

i'm not sure enough to say that! but i still think there's a reasonable chance

[Psyche]

no stable consensus among remaining i think, even if i do find a confident townread myself
let's just lim the scummiest player everyday until the game is over

[Psyche]

there's really a non-negligible i bussed gera?

[Psyche]

there's really a non-negligible i bussed gera?

What do you mean?

why can't you townread me even after the gera flip? :(

[Psyche]

yes!

[Psyche]

in fact, i find it a little sus that she doesn't!
of course you get a pass

[Psyche]

sry it doesn’t. in fact as early as last night i was like “if she doesn’t townlock me after all this she’s probably mafia”. alas kay alas

[Psyche]

alas

[Psyche]

i think that's just RN stuff! am somewhat ok to see if i'm right though

[Psyche]

i suppose if i just let the RN thing go through i could be dead before it's my turn to push again

[Psyche]

ah. but perhaps to ask if it makes sense is the wrong question

[Psyche]

enchanto
are you also townlocked re: kay?

[Psyche]

ah. but perhaps to ask if it makes sense is the wrong question

What do you propose instead?

to get a correct read on one such as yourself,
it could be a mistake to reason based on what makes sense
this is because our reasoning outcomes tend to diverge
for example, we diverged on the gypyx/thomith being locktown thing

if you were scum, you'd probably diverge from me about when it might be a good time to bus and component judgments
like whether a slot is likely to be limmed, like whether you're sufficiently distanced from this or that player, and so on

so reasoning about your play based on my own judgments about what makes sense in these situations could lead me to wrong reads!

[Psyche]

ey ey ey RN
i think LF is town
won't you trust me on this?
if you did pretend to trust me on this, who would you vote for instead, in that pretend moment?

[Psyche]

see this is so interesting
i feel like ive been thoroughly unambiguous about my read on you

[Psyche]

haha yeah
i think you're town!
the whole thing about being ok w mislimming you was just fantasizing about effort minimization i suppose

[Psyche]

don't worryyy. i got you. there's just one scum left and we will find them today and then i can take a nice long hiatus from committing time i absolutely don't have to hobbies i don't absolutely love

[Psyche]

wow look at all this read diversity

[Psyche]

now we just need kay to scumread gypyx to complete the chain

[Psyche]

oooh link me that RN scum game

[Psyche]

ok
quick skim feels supportive of my RN townread but makes enchant-scum more plausible
also makes kay seems more plausibly town given the consistency w her take on the game

[Psyche]

most obvious observations:
- RN lurked a lot that game, clearly different this game but there are lapses of engagement in this game too. and also various quixotic excursions.
- enchant bussed both buds that game. hammered one, was second vote on the other bud in a 4-votes-to-hammer day. tone and content of posts aren't too different from this game. maybe more effortful.

resolution: i maybe prefer enchant today after all. for now!

[Psyche]

im not decisive enough for quickly doing

[Psyche]

what's the difference between sounding like defeated scum and like defeated town?

[Psyche]

sure but we can assume enchant probably does not want to be limmed even if he's town and would probably still win after being mislimmed. he might feel defeated if he thinks he will be limmed and is reasonably resigned to that.

[Psyche]

is totally possible for us to lose; there are enough uncleared slots for it. we just have to collectively misread the one remaining scum. range of reads at daystart indicates most of us were doing that. but we can hope that after most towns' favorite scumreads are dead we are eventually forced into the correct read.

[Psyche]

yeah

[Psyche]

ughh im being lazy
ok im going to do this today
let's just go through the process of reviewing what we know about titus/enchant

[Psyche]

nvm my boss needs help setting up a thing my WFH monday dreams are dead

[Psyche]

my boss is now in a state of relative peace about his life and the trajectory of the universe

[Psyche]

sry i am executive dysfunction

[Psyche]

sure would be wild if 3534 came from scum

[Psyche]

wow!

[Psyche]

still leaning toward enchant! but haven't done my homework!

[Psyche]

what is going on...

[Psyche]

is val done yet

[Psyche]

okay! can you be more specific about why kay is scummy

[Psyche]

im still kind of inclined to give LF this one so we can get him on the right track going forward
could maybe call it a little reward for actually trying

[Psyche]

alas
it is not my life to give

[Psyche]

ok! i have a large normal 247 shaped hole in my schedule around 3-5pm today. i'll give the game some serious effort then or tonight depending on when sleep deprivation decides to overwhelm my senses again

[Psyche]

rn uses the "im crazy business in real life" line as scum too though :*(

[Psyche]

another typo! i should stop posting until i am at full power

[Psyche]

you don't have to convince me rnny. im totally pocketed. but can you place a better vote than lf? he's difficult but he's family

[Psyche]

i can understand feeling confused by that post. but while im still transitioning from uncaffeinated to caffeinated you're just gonna have to practice a little negative capability

[Psyche]

ughhh i get an email every time someone posts here ok im turning that off

[Psyche]

ah yes
my time to shine

[Psyche]

not to shit talk on her game

Everyone knows I suck as both town and scum, shit talk all you want :lol:

um this is false. you are not sucky as scum

[Psyche]

still a weird post to make given how many times i've repeated paranoia about your scumskill

[Psyche]

not to shit talk on her game

Everyone knows I suck as both town and scum, shit talk all you want :lol:

yeah see that's what i'm talking about

PoE is making me think it's psyche

If I were scum, I feel sure I'd have sheeped you about gera and he'd probably still be alive today.
The meta case on him was pretty compelling (he really did play differently this game than in other scum games!) and would have been easy to lean on for the rest of the game, particularly given how many other slots weren't and aren't definitively town.
I'd have kept insisting that gera is town like I've been about RN.

[Psyche]

you said "everyone knows" though

[Psyche]

re gypyx 3746: This seems like another case where I feel like you weight different ambiguous tells rather inconsistently. Sure I'm not confirmed, but what could be more strongly town-telling on the other mysterious slots than my gera trajectory?

[Psyche]

i will probably default to voting kay if i can't find a confident scumread in the next couple of hours -- or something that clears her for me again. just too many little things feel off and i still think that initial case i posted on her D3 is still reasonable (though still possibly wrong). there's been a lot to TR her over, but her slot keeps me awake at night. every other slot i feel confident town can sort out before losing even if i disappeared off the face of the earth right now.


(i fixated on 3743 because i remain wary that she could take advantage of a low perception of her skill as scum)

[Psyche]

Yes, speed elim val everyone

should chill. recall that you were similarly confident it was RN not too long ago. if you have time, quote what makes the slot scum? and maybe explain why i should give up on townlocking obsidian for the slot's role in ranger's lim?

[Psyche]

I've taken a lesson from the LycanFire school of scum hunting. I've found town. Enchant and Psyche. I'll put in on record here, for all to see and beat me around the head with if necessary later on. It's just unfortunate for Lycan that means he loses tomorrow on a Kay mislim unless he gets me flipped today. I don't blame him for what he's doing, even if it is infuriating.

if you've solved enchant i'd very much like to see and digest the rationale. your response will probably do a lot to influence whether i sheep lycan or not

[Psyche]

can't overstate how elated i'd be by the 2-for-1 deal of val providing a convincing enchant-town case

[Psyche]

Random Nurse, Geraintm and Ranger pushed the same rhetoric d2.

"Dislike of townblocks/questioning of Thomith/Gypyx, why won't Thomith/gypyx vote each other"
"Not wanting to eliminate in the hood"

I'll look at those others posts, but I do want to quickly point out that, while she accepted the townblock once they said they were informed, when it was just the hood that was revealed, Kay took both these lines pretty strongly as well and were a major theme of her early D2 - that's one of my notes.

Show your receipts. I just read through d1-d2 again and this is NOT a major of theme of Kay's d2.

Kay's focus d2

dave/ranger - 23
implied ranger post - 2
penguin/psyche - 4
thomith - 6
titus/enchant - 3
gypyx - 11
geraintm - 2
hu tao - 5
naerys - 7
snow - 1
willow/lycan - 3
random nurse - 4
oblivion/val - 5
implied post not liking titus/ranger attitude - 1

disagreed with geriaintm's not wanting to eliminate in hood - 750
is willing to eliminate in the hood/admits to sheeping gypyx/thomith/snow/hu tao - 957
kay is not uncharismatic, defending naerys - 929, 1291, 1400
intent to hammer (homies quickhammered together) - 1120

I'm voting anyone that mentions voting Kay after this post. This is no longer productive.

oh are you counting mentions as part of your thread analysis? i've been interested in the idea and have even started coding up a script for it. am already in the habit of ctrl+fing player A's name while in player B's iso.

[Psyche]

still feeling quite good about everyone outside my start-of-day kay/enchant poe. in fact i feel better about the people outside that poe than i did yesterday.

[Psyche]

Alrighty.

Don't open the spoiler tags, Enchant, if you want to keep your breakfast down.

Spoiler: WARNING. Herein lies Wallpost.

Day One

Early doors, and we have scum voting for scum already.

Spoiler: VC 1.05

1.05

Votecount 1.05

davesaz

(4): Titus,

Snow2697

,

geraintm

,

Hu Tao

Little Will o' Wisp (2): Gypyx, JacksonVirgo

Hu Tao

(2):

davesaz

,

NotAScum

Snow2697

(1): PenguinPower
Titus (1):

Naerys

JacksonVirgo

(1):

Thomith

Not Voting (4): Random Nurse, Oblivion, KayJayQueue, Little Will o' Wisp

This is supposed be an answer to why I think scum!Kay, so I'll leave a discussion as to the likelihood of scum!Titus-Dave-Gera pulling that little maneuverer as an exercise to the reader. Needless to say, one of the first 'proper' wagons of the game after the speed wagon is building on scumslot.

Right now, my initial callout is

Snow Naerys

geratim

and

Dave

.

Can you expand your reasoning for

Snow

and

Naerys

?

While that is happening, here is Kay, asking Titus for justification on the 2 of the 3 slots in that list that aren't the other known scum. I've looked, and I can't see any reason why she didn't just ask for all 3, certainly Titus just responds as if she had. It smells to me like Kay was hoping Titus would give something that others could latch on to that would direct that wagon away from scum - without accidently diverting it on to the other if the thread preferred her reasons for

Gera

. I think it was early enough in the game that in the rush to try and look like you were solving, you might not stop to consider (or care much) what that would look like at some unknown point in the future there had been several flips.

Well from what I saw, the reasons that people were sussing/voting her were things that I did as well. So if I agreed with the vote it would be like agreeing that I was in the same boat. Obviously, I don't agree with that assessment.

This reads overly defensive to me - nobody else had picked up on the similarities enough to care, but Kay thought the reasons people (at that point,

Willow

,

Thom

and Titus) were voting

Naerys

also applied to her and didn't want that wagon to go though either - for that reason. I can't really figure out what those reasons were - Titus said in 172 it was because they looked like

Dave

partners, which surely can't be what Kay means else that would basically have been a scumslip - which points to extra sensitivity as to how her slot might be perceived to me.

So, she doesn't want

Naerys

, but she apparently doesn't want to join on

Dave

either. Even when directly asked. She doesn't give reasons why not though, and plays it off as a joke. Eventually, she was eventually called out on it and still didn't explain but just passively asks if he's to be the flip after all:

Spoiler: Won't join dave wagon because reasons

Just because a wagon is big(ger) doesn’t make it the right move.

And I say this as someone who is still willing to vote Will’o. I’m just saying I don’t think that’s a great way to look at wagons.

Wanna vote dave?

Oh no is this the peer pressure my mom warned me about…

NaS can be vigged later. Every game has a vigilante these days, as you found out last game :lol:

Dave gives more info

Stop being logical :cry:

I’m a lil shocked nobody is coming after my ass considering how little I’ve posted compared to usual

I’ll come after your ass

VOTE: JacksonVirgo

Why do you refuse to vote dave?

Is that still a thing? I don’t remember the VC, I thought the vote moved to NAS sorry.

If it matters, my vote on Jack is very unserious.

Are we flipping Dave today?

How many votes do we need on him to demand a claim? (I’m being serious with that question, is E-1 the usual “claim or die” slot?)

At this point here is the VC, updated from 1.16:

1.16 with vote changes

NotAScum (7): Thomith, Titus, PenguinPower, Naerys, geraintm, Random Nurse, davesaz
davesaz (3): Hu Tao, Snow2697, Little Will o' Wisp
PenguinPower (1): JacksonVirgo
JacksonVirgo (1): KayJayQueue

Not Voting (1): Oblivion

With 15 players alive, it takes 8 votes to secure an execution.

Up until that recent "very unserious" vote on JV, Kay had been pretty vocal driver on the NAS wagon, being first on it, and telling Oblivion that NAS would be her fantasy insta-flip. The last few vote changes have consolidated around NAS and Dave. In that context, her next comment is rather strange:

I don’t really have an opinion either way on Dave vs NAS, the person I wanted to lim today got to 5 votes at one point but then most people backed off the wagon so I doubt that’s going to happen.

The "person I wanted to lim today" can't be NAS, despite her saying so to Oblivion, since he's at E-1, I can only assume it was the other "politic answer" she then votes for - Willow.

I can't tally these actions with the statement that she doesn't "really have an opinion either way on Dave vs Nas". She was the first person to vote Nas, who is now in hammer range, she told oblivion she would chose NAS to flip if she had a free choice, she said "Finally, I’ve found my people lol" in 499 when someone else finally votes Nas as well, and rejoins the wagon, and she pointily AVOIDS voting Dave, without giving reasons, when asked directly three times.

I don't blame her, its' a tricky spot to be in if she is scum - the flip she had been trying to bring about is now about to be revealed as a mislim, and the credible alternative is her partner. I can only make it make sense by assuming she really does have skin the game - she's pushed one wagon, deliberately avoided another despite being asked to join it, but publicly says she doesn't care, and now tries, with someone she had been pushing at E-1 and a few hours left on the clock, to russle up a wagon on a third party - Willow.

this is hard to digest but feels awfully important

[Psyche]

i mean, thom was less convinced than me on town!gera but also was less of a presence

i'd just be kinda baffled by scum!nurse throwing away the potential utility in beliving us and giving our voice more power

this applies to RN but not me? ok i know i should let this go

[Psyche]

im going to keep reading backwards until i hit lf's towncase for kay
then i'll make sure i understand every word of that case and also val's case
then i'll think about enchant

[Psyche]

this is really tough. i can see why town is so divided. even the RN scumread feels potentially forced by some town-pinging posts from enchant/kay. and then with town-pinging posts from RN, oblivion similarly seems plausible. and yet oblivion also seems town. i even forgive gypyx for poeing down to me.

[Psyche]

My read on Kay:

1) Where would Ranger put her teammates? Kay was nearly unmovable from "P14" onward. She only ever dipped at page 27, where she made a single post about the kill being upsetting. I read this as Ranger trying to pocket someone that was vocal about Dave, and dropping Kay the one slot that Ranger did was to make Kay think

she was actually being sorted

. Ranger could have easily blank TRed Kay if they were partners and wouldn't need to fake it. I think Kay was very townie throughout D2.
2) Kay is a non-Ranger voter, but for the first half of D2 might as well had been a voter. She was laser focused on Ranger and reminding Ranger that she was in contention.
3) Kay didn't make an effort to save Ranger, and is making no effort right now to cash in on how she was pushing Ranger D2.

Interactions:

UNVOTE:

That Naerys wagon makes no sense to me.

How hard did you look at the vote reasons? Are they any more or less valid than typical for d1?
Also how does the comment relate to the unvote?

From my point of view this is an interesting comment:
Votecount 1.10

Little Will o' Wisp

(3):

Gypyx

, PenguinPower,

davesaz

Naerys

(3):

Little Will o' Wisp

,

Thomith

, Titus

davesaz

(2):

Hu Tao

, Snow2697

Hu Tao

(2):

NotAScum

, geraintm
PenguinPower (1):

JacksonVirgo

NotAScum

(1): KayJayQueue
Titus (1):

Naerys

Not Voting (2): Random Nurse, Oblivion

Kay's trajectory would have had her vote willow. She didn't oblige until the end of day, making different votes in this time. I feel like dave was trying to manipulate her here.

Ranger, I’ve been waiting patiently for you to catch up. You had been reading page by page originally. Are you caught up? Where exactly are you on reads/do you have an updated reads list? There’s been a lot of talk about how we’re on the wrong path as a town but that argument is feeling cyclical at the moment. I can’t figure out if your latest reads (especially on Naerys) are based on the game as a whole, recent events, or the beginning of the game.

Ranger can you please give explanations for these reads more than just names in a list? I feel like you think we should understand why they were moving up and down relative to the page number…it wasn’t as helpful as I think you believe it was. At least not for me.

I'll say before bed; you all really

have

slacked.

I'm usually not topping the post charts; despite replacing in half a week ago, I'm already the third-highest poster and climbing.

I’m not 100% positive if you are at E-1 or E-2 but once we get a vote count my intent is to either put you at E-1 or hammer, whichever it is. I think we’d all appreciate a claim at this point. I won’t hammer without a claim but I can’t guarantee any one else won’t either.

I'll say before bed; you all really

have

slacked.

I'm usually not topping the post charts; despite replacing in half a week ago, I'm already the third-highest poster and climbing.

I’m not 100% positive if you are at E-1 or E-2 but once we get a vote count my intent is to either put you at E-1 or hammer, whichever it is. I think we’d all appreciate a claim at this point. I won’t hammer without a claim but I can’t guarantee any one else won’t either.

I’m busy until tomorrow, so I can’t address how terrible the votes on me are.

I feel given the site downtime and how horrendous the votes on me are, I’m owed a chance to respond to them and for the wagon to be given a chance to dissipate without the need for a claim.

If you or others disagree, then sure, I can claim, yet you are being foolish for not critically examining how awful the vote pileon is and why it

shouldn’t

merit forcing me to claim.

I don’t think anyone should be discrediting every person that’s voting you just because you say it’s wrong. Obviously we don’t have a way of knowing what is and isn’t “correct” unless someone has extra info. You saying votes are not for valid reasons seems like an unfair assessment of the effort we are putting into solving.

I do find it slightly odd that there hasn’t been any kind of real counter wagon. That might be my only hesitation currently.

I don’t think anyone should be discrediting every person that’s voting you just because you say it’s wrong.

Of course not.

They should be discrediting the votes by looking at the reasons for the votes and seeing

how terrible they are

.

Late, bbl.

Ranger makes another post reply to this 30 minutes later. This seems like an attempt at manipulation, not a one and done SvS interaction:

You saying votes are not for valid reasons seems like an unfair assessment of the effort we are putting into solving.

Clearly not. My assessment of the amount of solving being done is accurate as I’ve done more effort to solve the game in five days than any player has the entire game.

And I can state that as objective fact.

The accuracy of my solve is up for debate.

That I have done it and far more than nearly any other slot isn’t; it’s an objectively true fact.

Ranger's ego rubs Kay the wrong way:

You saying votes are not for valid reasons seems like

an unfair assessment of the effort we are putting into solving

.

I do find it slightly odd that

there hasn’t been any kind of real counter wagon

. That might be my only hesitation currently.

Perhaps consider the contradiction behind the bolded.

To be more explicit;

You cannot seriously claim there’s been solving while also ignoring there’s no counterwagon, half the game isn’t voting, and

no critical analysis of the votes given has been provided

.

Have you looked at the reason for Random Nurse's revote of me?

How about Oblivion?

How about Titus?

Did you look at those reasons for voting and think, "this is valid, this seems to track, I have no disagreements with this"?

I’m willing to bet you didn’t.

So if you didn’t have that thought...

...Where's the alleged effort into solving?

It is almost as if the scum team got an injection of motivation with a replacement player.

Is that accurate? If the scum team includes Ranger and she’s pretty likely to be limmed, wouldn’t a motivated team be aiding in this somehow? Unless I’ve overlooked some posts, I can always go back and reread but it currently seems like everyone is at least content with the Ranger vote. That is slightly worrying to me. Does anyone else have an opinion on lack of counter? Is this just paranoia?

No. That’s critical thinking.

I know who the scum are killing once I flip town.

I feel like I should disengage with this for awhile while I reread the last few pages. You’re making me feel like I’m an idiot and maybe it’s lack of sleep but I’m feeling a bit out of my depth right now. I feel like I’m defending myself for trying to play the game. I think I was even the most vocal about letting you catch up on your reads too. I was very eager for your input especially since Dave didn’t really give me a ton to go off of. I guess I’m just not used to a play style like yours and I’ll have to adjust to it.

Ranger does not oblige the disengage and continues to bother Kay:

I feel like I’m defending myself for trying to play the game.

What a coincidence, so am I!

My argument in part is that the wagon on me, with no counterwagon, is

deliberately designed to prevent players from playing the game

.

It warps the game around me and makes the game entirely about me.

I didn’t sign up for that, nor did I cause it. My efforts have consistently been to

dissuade

that gamestate, as there’s never anything good to come from focusing entirely on one player.

My question to you is

why have my efforts failed?

Why is the game entirely still about me?

I certainly would prefer it otherwise!

So why do I remain the sole focus of players

despite

my efforts?

It’s almost like me remaining the focus is beneficial to scum.

I know which alignment that implies for me.

I was very eager for your input especially since Dave didn’t really give me a ton to go off of. I guess I’m just not used to a play style like yours and I’ll have to adjust to it.

Perhaps you could look at the input I gave, then?

I gave page by page changes in my reads.

Did any stick out to you? Did you even

look

at them?

I gave a basic summary of my reads after I got to my replace-in spot. Did you read my rundown of each slot?

I work best by letting players engage with my content, and elaborating on it when they do.

So why is the engagement so low?

People wanted contributions from my slot.

I gave them

. So why are they pretending I haven’t?

Ranger can you please give explanations for these reads more than just names in a list?

I explain the changes when engaged on them.

As for explaining the reads, you apparently need a read yourself.

From there on Oblivion goes aggro on Ranger. I try to separate them. I tell Ranger there's good reasons to suspect them, they claim and promise more content the next day and never return.

------------------------
Outside of interactions Kay is difficult to read. She goes through periods of uncertainty and "goes with the flow". She's been trigger happy with her vote, but I haven't noticed an agenda with this (unless people think Kay and Psyche are aligned - which I think we should all agree should not be a good pairing). Her reads come from gut feelings and takes time to articulate why. This was frustrating for me to read as otherwise she's been very active and posting in real time with people, which should be great. I think we would all hate to lose to scum!Kay here but we shouldn't let our pride direct us to a bad elimination when we otherwise should have a winning POE. If we can agree on town!Kay here, we're less likely to fumble any potential MELO.

I'm back to the theory that the most likely scenario is the right one for this game. I was distracted by the idea of a fourth mafiaso yesterday, but I think we had the game there. From these interactions especially with Ranger I would be very surprised if they were aligned. Ranger was fighting for her life, and Kay was making the thread (along with Oblivion) all about Ranger's ego and how they were mistreating the people voting her. Which she was, because I told her that too.

i made it!

[Psyche]

this is really tough. i can see why town is so divided. even the RN scumread feels potentially forced by some town-pinging posts from enchant/kay. and then with town-pinging posts from RN, oblivion similarly seems plausible. and yet oblivion also seems town. i even forgive gypyx for poeing down to me.

but i think we'll be fine!
gera lim was ultimately a process of finding the least bad option and i think we can repeat that magic again today or tomorrow

[Psyche]

i find val's scumcase for kjq rather high-quality. each piece of it is substantive and reasonably novel, too. renews my confidence that val is town, because it seems really clear at this point that val actually worked really hard on the case and genuinely believed that kay might be scum.

[Psyche]

What is Val's case? Broad argument seems to be that her D1 trajectory seems faked.


In post 171, Kay asks for Titus (who is now Enchant) to expand on reasoning for two out of four slots mentioned in that post. These two slots were the two town among those slots.
Rationale is that kay was trying to guide attention toward those first two slots.
I guess I need a good understanding of the context of that post to decide if I agree that the post is scummy.
Hmm. On the one hand, it's reasonable that Kay didn't ask for a dave elaboration; there were a lot of votes on that slot and the scumcase for him was public information.
On the other, she should have been more interested in the gera call-out since there'd been little to no prior discussion of gera up to then.
So sure this is not an underbaked take. 171 is odd.


In post 334, Kay explains her reasons for opposing the Naeyrs wagon. Kay says "the reasons that people were sussing/voting her were things that I did as well". Val finds this overly defensive. Val also maybe finds it a bit contrived; there were reasons people provided for voting Naeyrs that could not have possibly applied to kayjayqueue (e.g., Titus, whose read explanation kay directly solicited). This is actually a really interesting observation. It's potentially worth digging into the other votes for Naeyrs (especially the ones more recent relative to 334) so that I can get a clear idea of which votes should have been most salient for kay then.


Next in posts 446, 457, 608, kay sort of walks around voting for dave (according to val) instead of committing. She also ditches the NAS wagon that she was originally excited for without really ever following up engagement on it. Instead she sat on her unserious JV vote.

[Psyche]

ok that's a solid reply
atm i think even though i think val's scumcase for kay is good, i think i still find the other townpinging stuff about kay's play rather compelling
lycanfire is right to complain that val's analysis only seems to cover D1

[Psyche]

ok. im getting short on time. i still really want enchant! can we make a deal

[Psyche]

also what happed to the RN read?

[Psyche]

VOTE: PenguinPower

Until I figure out which person from the neighborhood I think is the best to vote, I’m using my vote to give information about what I’m thinking, since apparently not voting is the work of the devil according to some. (sorry for being hyperbolic) But also, if wanting to glean info from someone’s voting history if they are killed/limmed is a big thing, I don’t mind this being put out there.

I don’t like Day 2 from Penguin. I didn’t really love his D1 either. Maybe it’s just his playstyle but continually prodding people to vote and saying they add nothing to the game unless they vote is odd to me since he seems to vote randomly with no explanation a good amount of the time. He says talk is meaningless yet votes (sometimes) with no (obvious) incentive. Seems like he does that so he can retroactively come up with any explanation he wants for his votes.

This justification for kjq's attitude re: PP is very leaky in its reasoning and lacks a convincing sorting mindset.

What I mean by

sorting mindset

is that the post and content following up on the post are missing straightforward efforts to clarify ambiguity in her best guesses around the game state.

In this post, KJQ acknowledges two possible explanations for what she dislikes about PP's vote-focused playstyle -- that 1) he's two-faced/hypocritical scum, and 2) that this is just the way he plays mafia.

KJQ acknowledges that pp's posting could be NAI but makes no real effort to sort between this account and the PP-scum. Instead opting to the interpretation that PP's play is scum-motivated

without providing any justification for this choice

or any attempt here or in downstream posts to further clarify this choice.

Kjq's iso demonstrates no apparent effort at deciding between these two possibilities she herself marks as plausible. She could have tried to look at PP's past games for similar patterns. She could inquired for examples of durable commitment to this style from PP himself or other players with experience with him. She could have probed examples in PP's iso of where he may have used the ambiguity in his votes to potentially advance a scum win condition.

I'm not seeing examples of any of this. Instead, the trajectory of KJQ's reads are pretty flat.

I've noticed this pattern of coasting and disinterest in real sorting is in her earlygame posts too. In an earlier post, I highlighted this in a sequence of posts around willow (who got replaced by lycanfire). kjq observed that willow's choices of who to focus criticism on did not appear opportunistic -- it focused on people who weren't voting for their slot -- but declined real reflection on whether that was alignment-indicative in either direction.

Despite purportedly laying out a read on PP, I think the post quoted here has the same problem. KJQ lays out relevant facts but doesn't make a serious attempt at weighing them, or at improving an initially ambiguous take afterwards.

grrr i still feel like there's something to this

[Psyche]

all seems to come down to whether we interpret this lack of direction/agenda as scummy, nai, or town

[Psyche]

nope. okay i think kay is town still. what a pain.

VOTE: enchant

lf if you help get me enchant today and there's still a game tomorrow, i'll let you control my vote tomorrow. at least by deadline.

[Psyche]

ok. i will probably take another look at enchant but i don't want to. if push comes to shove, i will end up voting kay.

[Psyche]

i maybe actually won't vote kay even at deadline

[Psyche]

hmm but i don't really think there's a good chance of kjq scum anymore. do you?

[Psyche]

i know you aren't lock on her. is there a post where you say why you think she's scummy?

[Psyche]

sure, but ive already explained why i don't find that argument compelling

[Psyche]

i really can't believe you're seriously considering limming lycanfire here

[Psyche]

i don't think it's very rare at all for town to do that

[Psyche]

is there anything in particular that gives you pause about limming enchant beyond them not being lycanfire

[Psyche]

...

I'd be open to that.

Would be very helpful for later if you could talk through how you're reasoning between these two options.

[Psyche]

what's left your poe if kay flips town

[Psyche]

i take it as a compliment
but im town

[Psyche]

think that’s the wrong choiceeee

[Psyche]

if you already think the slot is flipping town then just give me my preference

[Psyche]

is a relief to find out either way i suppose

[Psyche]

i think kay is saying she really was scum all along

[Psyche]

gosh if it turned out to be gera/kay all along id feel amazing. but im not allowed to be happy therefore at least one of enchant or lycanfire has to be scum

wow. im going to need to change a lot of major life decisions

[Psyche]

i really need to see what kay is like as town someday

[Psyche]

it has roles that are only allowed in complex games!

[Psyche]

knowing when and how to be flexible is a rather subtle skill

[Psyche]

lately i kind of miss themes. id like a themed open setup