Toriel's Patience (end)

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Ego and UNVOTE:
Replacing beeboy

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Read like 5 or 10 pages and realized as we're on D2 I should check the flip, then I skimmed meuh's ISO...

So, sorry if it's been addressed already, but if we go mercy/spare, are the spared players flipped and removed from game as though they are eliminated, or is it flipless, or are they flipped and allowed to continue posting/voting until they are NKed?

[ssbm_Kyouko]

I actually sort of feel the opposite, I think it it gets into a big game of people fighting to be the most town it becomes a lot harder to solve, but I don't think it's as important whether we spare or kill as not sparing scum!Dunnstral and not killing town!Dunnstral.

Really? In my experience of video mafia and other stuff it at least felt a lot harder for wolves to fake a townread on their teammate vs making a wolfcase on inconsistencies of weaknesses villagers do. Maybe I'm incorrect in my theory and have a bit of choo choo brain because of my urge to send over all of Dann/You/Taly

I'm here right now. I read the first 5 pages and the Meuh ISO on mobile so there's less comprehension there.

Town: Dann/Mandate/Keyleth
leantown: Taly
Questionable and to be followed up: Dunnstral's 335/336 - I'm not liking the Sakura posting atp and I don't recall Brown Eyes/Merlyn's posts which is why I need to follow up on the Brown Eyes/Merlyn reads
scum: aristea/sakura

TR on Dannflor is probably too easy but I have a feeling this is not deepwolfing

Anyways, chose to quote this post because I really disagree with a lot of Keyleth's reads in this post but they feel so far off of my own reads and they align so well with what I perceive Keyleth's experience in this game to be that they must be coming from town. Which is why I'm now going to take Keyleth out of leantown where she was as I was writing this sentence and put her up with Dann/Mandate.

I've had problems with all of Sakura's posting so far except for one post that was a pagetop a couple of pages ago, and from aristea I'd been getting light pings up to the point that I saw an interaction between her and Shirou where she sort of drives a wedge between Shirou and Meuh. Shirou had voiced Meuh makes a towny post, then Aristea comments on Shirou's post and Shirou turns around and is like "well actually I don't TR Meuh" and not long after that I think Shirou actually votes Meuh. Even without the Meuh flip this pings me as some possible buddying up to town!Shirou. There's also Aristea saying she will cooperate with whatever townbloc Mandate forms later which again feels like possible buddying up with Mandate who I feel strongly is town.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Was looking at the most recent VC and seeing Aristeia's replacement's replacement leading the VC on the leading wagon I just want to counter right now

VOTE: RCEnigma

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Am curious about your vote brown eyes.

Care to elaborate?

Fairly bad entrance, I think. She indicated in 208 that she had read the thread, yet her first posts were fairly unsubstantial in a way that feels like she was trying to look productive. I also think that given the opinion she gives in 211 that she expects townies who are pushed in an overbearing way to find it annoying and push back, her questions to Taly seem somewhat strange and informed:

its strange that you are saying mandate is "griefing" you because doesnt that assume mandate is town?

like if mandate is mafia and you're town then this wouldn't be a grief it would just be hyper aggression lining up lims and seizing thread control - your lack of any suspicion of this push is kind of ?? to me.

If I were in this situation, I would just

ask

Taly what her read on you is. It's hard to phrase this, but it feels more like she's just pointing something out rather than actually trying to interrogate anything.

based, fuego, rare, and scathing take

[ssbm_Kyouko]

I currently lean towards mafia on Taly's alignment currently.

I think it's pretty obvious I thought Taly was scummy when I made post 191 & 194.

said currently twice, caught scum

[ssbm_Kyouko]

not sarcasm

[ssbm_Kyouko]

I assume this is in response to "leading vote on the leading wagon" which specifically refers to the vote order in the VC as I'm not caught up

[ssbm_Kyouko]

221 is a pretty good point (on Keyleth being town) and probably +town a bit for Sakura. To elaborate a bit since it came into question why I think it's +town for Keyleth, the post is just very frank about what it's trying to do. I think scum on average will tend to shy away from a post that's like "hey, we already have me + x as town, who are the other two" particularly in the context of Keyleth having some heat on her. It's not a slam dunk or anything, but I think it's very easy to glance at that post and briefly *think* it's a slam dunk before you've thought it through intensely, hence Sakura is slightly townish for it

(but only slightly and this paragraph is already way too long)

Probably confbiasing on scum!Sakura on my part - I think I recall playing with implosion a long time ago and having difficulty reading him as either alignment - but this looks like self-conscious scum making sure to associate in some way with their partner

pedit: yes I'm planning on reading - I have like 11 days or something before deadline

[ssbm_Kyouko]

EV time.

There is one very interesting wrinkle in EV analysis of this setup, which is that if we choose a strategy on day 1 and plan to stick with it, then Dunn has flat odds of 11/14 of being town. So in the point of the calculation where we consider Dunn's probability, it's ambiguous whether we should stick 11/14 or whatever the current random odds are. I think the current odds at that point are technically the right thing to put in. It's similar to the Monty Hall problem, but the difference is that in Monty Hall you don't get any new info by opening the door but here every townie we lim does make Dunn more likely to be scum and every scum we lim does make Dunn more likely to be town. Anyhow. Gonna be rounding to nearest % at every step for convenience.

Suppose we mislim twice. Then if we choose Fight, 3/12 that we go to 2:9 mountainous (35% town win) and 9/12 that we go to 3:8 mountainous (17% town win) for about a 21% EV.

If we choose Mercy, well, there's not a wiki page already in existence to make this easy. Assuming that spares are chosen entirely at random still, as with regular EV calculation. 3/12 that Dunn is scum and we go to 2:9 sparegame. To win from there, we have to spare correctly at 11p, 9p, 7p and 5p, for total probability of (9/11) (7/9) (5/7) (3/5) = 3/11 or about 27%. In the 9/12 that Dunn is town, we go into 3:8 where we have to spare 3 times to win and scum have to spare twice. From there, 3/11 that we hit scum at which point our EV is (7/9) * (5/7) * (3/5) = 3/9. 8/11 that we go to 3:6. From there, 3/9 that our EV becomes (5/7)(3/5) = 3/7, and 6/9 that we go to 3:4 at which point scum's EV is (3/7)(2/5) = 6/35 so ours is 29/35.

All in all, the EV is this:

(3 / 12) * (3 / 11)
+
(9 / 12) * (

(3 / 11) * (3 / 9)
+
(8 / 11) * (

(3 / 9) * (3 / 7)
+
(6 / 9) * (29 / 35)

)


)

Which, if I've typed it into Google correctly, is just above 50%.

So that's definitely a very strong argument in favor of sparing Dunn. Almost regardless of his alignment - in fact, if he's scum, correctly choosing Fight instead of Mercy improves our EV from 27% to 35%, but if he's town then correctly choosing Mercy instead of Fight improves our EV from 17% to a whopping almost 60%. At those odds, we would need *incredibly* persuasive evidence that Dunn is scum to want to pick Fight over Mercy.

There are caveats. The first is that this is assuming we mislim twice (if we hit scum then we can redo this under those assumptions; i highly suspect that we'll get similar results). The second and much more important is the degree to which EVs are reliable. EVs are questionable even for regular mountainous games, but in the sparing game they're perhaps even more questionable due to the view that we'll be hemorrhaging all our best/towniest players both by sparings and by nightkills, and that we will ultimately *have* to win the game in a 2:3 or 3:4 ElO where in principle all 3 or all 4 town will have to unanimously be correct.

bookmarking this for my ISO

[ssbm_Kyouko]

I know this sounds counterintuitive and this applies to most of the playerlist, but I find it suspicious that there is a lack of scumreads, much less ones that arent consensus.

Probably setup related. Naturally we're all thinking spare is the easiest path which means townhunting is more of a focus to the groupthink than usual, so town is less focused on it and scum is not obligated to posit any SRs as long as the group continues the trajectory at this point in the thread. I do think Mandate made a good point about spare though (I think they pointed this out first - I attribute it to them in my head at least), which is that it may seem appealing but there is a possibility it could actually be worse because scum can kill consensus TRs at night to make it more difficult. Scum can't "kill themselves" to make it harder to find scum in the kill scum route.

Also I think at this point maybe everyone has not posted yet, or at least has not posted very much yet

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Page 35's Mandate had me feeling a little yikes about my TR - gave me strong scum!Guillotina vibes actually. I did not like the avoidance of Aristea's questioning of Dannflor. I think Aristea poses those questions as either alignment but I definitely ask that kind of question as scum. It's a very easy straightforward angle to challenge and appears towny but ultimately I think scum ALWAYS takes that angle and that town SOMETIMES takes that angle.

Merlyn's reactive vote on page 35 I think can come from scum there but only really makes sense to me if scum!Merlyn is not content with the gamestate. I'm leaning that the vote is more town-motivated but want to mention it in my own ISO in case it's needed later.

Regarding Dannflor: the claim was made that scum!he just lazily townread me for having a strong presence. I don't think anyone has pushed us as SvS so I don't need to defend that accusation. What I have to say regarding that is that he -didn't- townread me. Explicitly. He townread someone else that I also townread but didn't give a townread to me. I had to prompt it and he still wouldn't give me an explicit townread, just a lean. In contrast to what other people say about him giving me an easy townread I think it's kind of obvious that he was never fully comfortable in that townread and I also think it's kind of obvious that it has to do with him alt guessing me as a strong scum player. And I felt all this as it was going on and it felt far outside the bounds of something that Dannflor as scum would think to fake. He was also just very, idk, in the flow on the first page of the game and didn't feel forced or offbeat at all and I'm very much struggling with anyone characterizing his play as wanton scum!Aggression because there's the interesting vote hop taly->Keyleth that I really liked plus the fact that he didn't really, like, push anyone that hard? I also struggle with the characterization of him as meme voting because I think he was continually providing game relevant content while he was here so the push on him just entirely doesn't grok with the ISO of his that I've read.

I do like that Mandate reveals all that they do in this post and does answer the question in the quoted snippet. Overall my TR on them remains untarnished after this post though.

This post feels unfinished but I g2g

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Page 35's Mandate had me feeling a little yikes about my TR - gave me strong scum!Guillotina vibes actually. I did not like the avoidance of Aristea's questioning of Dannflor. I think Aristea poses those questions as either alignment but I definitely ask that kind of question as scum. It's a very easy straightforward angle to challenge and appears towny but ultimately I think scum ALWAYS takes that angle and that town SOMETIMES takes that angle.

Merlyn's reactive vote on page 35 I think can come from scum there but only really makes sense to me if scum!Merlyn is not content with the gamestate. I'm leaning that the vote is more town-motivated but want to mention it in my own ISO in case it's needed later.

Regarding Dannflor: the claim was made that scum!he just lazily townread me for having a strong presence. I don't think anyone has pushed us as SvS so I don't need to defend that accusation. What I have to say regarding that is that he -didn't- townread me. Explicitly. He townread someone else that I also townread but didn't give a townread to me. I had to prompt it and he still wouldn't give me an explicit townread, just a lean. In contrast to what other people say about him giving me an easy townread I think it's kind of obvious that he was never fully comfortable in that townread and I also think it's kind of obvious that it has to do with him alt guessing me as a strong scum player. And I felt all this as it was going on and it felt far outside the bounds of something that Dannflor as scum would think to fake. He was also just very, idk, in the flow on the first page of the game and didn't feel forced or offbeat at all and I'm very much struggling with anyone characterizing his play as wanton scum!Aggression because there's the interesting vote hop taly->Keyleth that I really liked plus the fact that he didn't really, like, push anyone that hard? I also struggle with the characterization of him as meme voting because I think he was continually providing game relevant content while he was here so the push on him just entirely doesn't grok with the ISO of his that I've read.

I do like that Mandate reveals all that they do in this post and does answer the question in the quoted snippet. Overall my TR on them remains untarnished after this post though.

This post feels unfinished but I g2g

To continue on this, since the ending is vague ("reveals all that they do")- I mean that prior to this, Mandate has talked about their "secret" philosophy regarding how best to play this setup and I think that the explanation provided in 875 makes sense for town!Mandate.

I got the spidey-sense sort of tingle of scum!Guillotina when reading Mandate on page 35 and that is not going to leave the back of my mind now as I read on, because at some point I caught Guillotina early on in a game and G (forgot Guillotina's pronouns) managed to mislim me that day by my recollection and I was pretty peeved about that. G felt obviously scum to me in that game but G managed to convince the playerlist it was just G's own style of posting and it was not AI. I don't think that outside of what I read on page 35 that Mandate reminds me of Guillotina and I find it unlikely G is their main but I still had that feeling for a moment.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Hm, they say "stale discussion" in post 839, and I think they were parroting what you were saying earlier, but I never thought the discussion was stale.

Sure I don't like their last ~4 posts or vote on Meuh.

VOTE: beeboy

Where did Mandate mention a stale discussion before 839? I like parroting as a scumtell when it is paired with a metadive to confirm that the player does not use a certain phrasing normally, but I don't think it actually happened here (also bee/I are town so I know in this case it's incorrect regardless of whether it happened or what beeboy's meta shows)

[ssbm_Kyouko]

758 not 744 surely

[ssbm_Kyouko]

UNVOTE:

UNVOTE:

i'd be interested to know what your read on me now is

sorry if you think ive been uncharitable or putting words in your mouth or something

Now that the reason for my doubt of my TR of you is gone im TRing you again. Besides as I said my vote was mainly for pressure and the need for that is gone as well.

i guess im just kinda perplexed that me being gone from the thread for 6 hours or whatever made you doubt your town read on me

Am i not explaining myself clearly?
I saw some people mention a SR on you and vote you, I saw Taly's post mentioning something about you being gone coz you were "scum happy with the current situation" or something similar (at least that's how i interpreted it) and i'm like "maybe there's another explanation for this" but then i remember someone, dont remember who, mentioning you were "Superficially good" and i'm like "did i get taken in by someone being superficially good and wrongly TR them?" and decided to help apply pressure on you.

Idk how else to explain it more clearly.

I'm starting to get marcistar vibes the more I read of Sakura and I think the lead-up to the unvote in 1000 and the subsequent talk with Dann are maybe likely to come from town. Feels like scum has a hard time swallowing that pill and admitting to where they may have made a mistake or at least a poor decision. I feel like scum in this situation plays harder into it and goes for some kind of ATE play instead. Don't have any questions for you so far, but feeling better.

Still concerned about this somehow being Dunn-Sakura from Dunn's interactions in thread, and the idea originally came to me from Mandate, but individually Sakura's scum equity is lowering (I think I used that term right - she's getting townier to me)

[ssbm_Kyouko]

I do feel, uh, pretty unreserved about Sakura town now so that's nice

I like Mandate arriving to this around the same time as me in my reading of the thread

Btw if anyone has questions for me, there's no need to wait for the full reading. I am trying to pay attention to the "front" of the thread via notifications as I read through it so yeah

[ssbm_Kyouko]

nice

[ssbm_Kyouko]

why are there votes on

RCE

tbh

Aristeia scum

[ssbm_Kyouko]

I'm not afraid of Implo!scum, I've found it really annoying to push lims on him in the past but to my recollection I've never lost to him and I've never failed to catch them D1 so I don't know why you are this scared.

Leaving off here for the day. If I do read more it will be on my phone so I'll probably avoid that. I'm busier tomorrow so I don't expect to be caught up until Wednesday at the earliest.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Hm, they say "stale discussion" in post 839, and I think they were parroting what you were saying earlier, but I never thought the discussion was stale.

Sure I don't like their last ~4 posts or vote on Meuh.

VOTE: beeboy

Where did Mandate mention a stale discussion before 839? I like parroting as a scumtell when it is paired with a metadive to confirm that the player does not use a certain phrasing normally, but I don't think it actually happened here (also bee/I are town so I know in this case it's incorrect regardless of whether it happened or what beeboy's meta shows)

732 and 738

It has less to do with the word choice used and more about the concept, Mandate said the thread was stagnating and needed to be moved forward.

I see, I thought it could have been 732, but did not register 738 when reading backward to find it. Personally I think parroting of exact word choice is more telling. It's easy enough to read something and think "yeah I agree" and then come back to that thought on your own later as town.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Freedom has been eliminated. He was

town

.

Can yall cool it

[ssbm_Kyouko]

I actually think Meuh started sounding a lot worse when she was (I'm assuming) taken out of her comfort zone by the direction the game went so don't take this as me lacking personal enthusiasm just

I am exhausted

I mean I agree on Alisae but I don't want to wagon them D1 unless we stall til close to deadline (which I'm perfectly fine to do I don't mind not majjing a Lim) and e still hasn't done anything

Heads up... if we don't reach majority mafia get to pick someone to be eliminated

What does this mean Dunn?

[ssbm_Kyouko]

If majority is not achieved by deadline, I will privately contact the mafia to decide on behalf of the town.

🗑
(Respectfully)

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Also I dont understand why mercy is the foregone conclusion here, that seems questionable, like yall have been wrong twice and there's a rush to potentially spare scum!Dunn putting us immediately into a situation where we have to dodge scum spares for what, 4 days straight?

And nobody seems to be considering this

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Maybe dunn becomes more obviously town later on or maybe the discussion of mercy/fight comes up later but as of page 66 and after seeing town-town lims I'm not sold and I think people should be reevaluating instead of once again rushing headfirst

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Keyleth, Lazy Shirou, Taly, Sakura Hana, Dannflor, Dunnstral

oh look
it's the same people that decided to kill meuh

I like this line of thought though

Freedom and Meuh Wagoners:

Taly

, Sakura,

Dunn

, Keyleth

Meuh-Only Wagoner:

implosion, Ydrasse

Freedom-Only Wagoner:

RCEnigma, Shirou, Dannflor

Off Both Wagons at Elimination:

Alisae, Bingle, ssbm_Kyouko

Everyone should succinctly give their spare order of

3.

I have thoughts I don't want to say at the moment

Like according to this there were 4 players on both wagons and one is getting yeeted before we move to D4. We can go kill route and kill all 4 of these players and we only lose if all 4 of them were town.

I think the towncore is likely infiltrated and sparing is a lost cause

HURT:

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Still catching up but I'm afraid scum!dunn will get spared before wednesday if I dont say something now

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Also I dont understand why mercy is the foregone conclusion here, that seems questionable, like yall have been wrong twice and there's a rush to potentially spare scum!Dunn putting us immediately into a situation where we have to dodge scum spares for what, 4 days straight?

And nobody seems to be considering this

I was told the alternative was scummy. I think the EV favors mercy but eh.

At rand it probably does, at least it seemed to from implosions post, but we're now down 2 town

[ssbm_Kyouko]

ssbm what you're positing is that I could be mafia and mafia have infiltrated the "town core" elsewhere? In that case I have no reason to be hammering people, really.

I feel like I just sped things along, really. I saved us waiting for several days before people hammered meuh and then freedom.

I think from an outside POV you can't disagree scum!Toriel is the ideal hammerer especially if he can make it to d3 with consensus leaning toward mercy. Toriel is dead anyways so he can take the place of hammerer and allay suspicion from the others.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

And yes that's what I mean, only takes scum!Dunn plus one spare scum to win, even if they are not infiltrated, it could happen after a couple of day when 4 consensus town are off the table from NK and spares

[ssbm_Kyouko]

I have a tinfoil that kyouko is scum with a deep wolf and is counting on us sparing a deep wolf and then panicking into “oh shit spare was the wrong choice!”

Maybe Dunn?

I just don’t know how anyone can legitimately look at implos numbers post and say: yup, let’s fight. Especially with the argument that scumhunting is easier than townhunting here.

I haven't looked back at his numbers since the second townflip and I dont recall if his numbers took flips into account

[ssbm_Kyouko]

UNVOTE: hurt

Not sure how I'm supposed to unvote a hurt/heal tag but @isis I want to unvote

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Have not confirmed implosions numbers on the spare town!dunn route yet as I'm on mobile and cant do that in my head but the post does take into account b2b mislims so fight is only around 21%EV

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Okay yeah I wasn't following all of the ending math when implo talked about what happens when we have town!dunn and we then spare town but I expanded it all out and added the probabilities and it does look like 59.7% (almost 60% as implo stated) when Dunn is town - overall I prefer to look at the chances of Dunn being scum/town as 3/11 and 8/11 rather than 3/12 and 9/12 because I'm town, and by the same reasoning every other town player can consider Dunn's rates as being out of 11 rather than 12.

3/11

that Dunn is scum and we go to 2:9 sparegame. To win from there, we have to spare correctly at 11p, 9p, 7p and 5p, for total probability of (9/11) (7/9) (5/7) (3/5) = 3/11 or about 27%. In the 8/11 that Dunn is town,

In that 8/11 town!Dunn the EV is 59.7%, making the total EV by my calculation:

3/11 (scum!Dunn) * 27.27% (EV of 11p 9:2 sparegame with an 0:1 spare ratio) + 8/11 town!Dunn * 59.7% (EV of 11p 8:3 sparegame with a 1:0 spare ratio) = 50.9% EV overall from Mercy route

[ssbm_Kyouko]

I meant to recolor all of the places I changed implosions numbers from 12 denominator to 11 denominator in green so it was clear they were not the original post but rather the numbers from town POV but changing the numbers doesn't change the overall EV by a noticeable amount (I did the same thing when double checking the Fight EV and changing the denominator doesn't really affect it).

I'm going to have time to catch up during D4 regardless so I'll probably just vote mercy once Dunn has had enough time

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Just looking at this from 600 it's like, even if dunn is scum and we fight we drop from 35% to 27.27% if we spare scum!dunn instead, but we lose so much by killing town!dunn (going from 59.7% to 17%)

Suppose we mislim twice. Then if we choose Fight, 3/12 that we go to 2:9 mountainous (35% town win) and 9/12 that we go to 3:8 mountainous (17% town win) for about a 21% EV.

If you're thinking Dunn is scum right now ask yourself would you rather lose 8 percentage points or 42?

[ssbm_Kyouko]

meuh

who is in your PoE?

I'm here now btw, slow progress today

[ssbm_Kyouko]

I like the counterargument that the two mislims don't undeniably infer a deepwolf

Couldn't find it on yt so take this sketchy link instead https://getyarn.io/yarn-clip/8545881e-f ... 4e383099c9

[ssbm_Kyouko]

implosion is a slot of some contention

your opinion on dunnstral's alignment would be worthwhile

I'm here and it's not a pagetop post number, spoOoOoOoky

[ssbm_Kyouko]

But beeboy isn't in game anymore?
P-edit: @Ali

Lol, beeboy didn't actually get replaced.

sike

[ssbm_Kyouko]

if you think scum is okay with the gamestate, what mutually agreed upon townreads do you think are wrong?

That’s the problem, innit?

I don’t really see anyone as super scummy. I do think I’ve come up with a way to vastly improve our EV that may have been missed in the design of the setup though.

VOTE: No elimination

Even if we assume that no lim = mafia doesn't pick an elimination, I'm not sure it's worth wasting nights without a NK just to give a "second chance" to slots like Ali which probably aren't gonna be town read ever?

Meuh is trying more and could technically turn the suspicion around but I doubt Ali would do anything similar here

sus

[ssbm_Kyouko]

That looks like the scumteam already asked isis in their pt about what happens during a vote for no elimination

[ssbm_Kyouko]

"No Elimination" is not a decision. I won't count votes for "No Elimination"

boooo

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Alisae, can you talk to me on Dann? Because I think Dann's posting is very clean. Like it's polished and worked on, I can tell he puts thought into his posts in a way that is hard to replicate. It makes it easy to townread cause it looks like good solving. What makes Dann a wolf? Can you point me to your posts?

I'm here now, and once again off for the day

[ssbm_Kyouko]

[Taly, Beeboy, Merlyn, Sakura, Ydrasse]

I think this is all town

[Taly, Beeboy, Merlyn, Sakura, Ydrasse]

I think this is all town

^

My Elite Five,

Ydrasse is town there because of Mandate's posts

I know some people are gonna argue for Key to be there rather than Idk, Merlyn? I think I could compromisse on that but I would rather not, Key hasn't done much for awhile here

Oh yeah Freedom

Your posts are kinda blegh but don't override my read on Merlyn yet

You also feel a bit more active than I remember you as scum

/shrug

VOTE: Meuh

I was expecting a PhD thesis on why Taly is definitely and utterly scum here, you've let me down Dann...

VOTE: Alisae

I voted Meuh because I was alone in the Alisae wagon given last VC. If any of them are town, I think Meuh could be more readable than Alisae in the long-term and that makes my preference be Alisae for today.

by limming Merlyn (Freedom) feels like you're all trolling me

This "Freedom is easier to read than Ali but I want to flip Freedom for info reasons" reasoning sounds like total bullshit and I like Ydrasse more for pointing it out

Your last posts does not feel like a real thought process

VOTE: Meuh

The reason I was voting Ali is exactly because I don't think she would ever comfortably get to "readable range" later on based on her approach here so far, and I think Freedom is close enough to that too but I've Merlyn posts to base myself on at least in D1

We don't know who we may be forced to consider sparing in late game so choosing slots you feel more comfortable reading is the way to go

Freedom flipping scum hardly tell us anything given how little interactions Merlyn/Freedom had, it's hardly an informative flip

on a re:read Merlyn's ISO doesn't look as good as I remembered but still not someone I would choose in D1 here

I don't think Ydra/Mandate is scum

I would still look in [Alisae, Implo, Ari] and maybe [Dann, Key] here

Freedom very maybe

Actually you know what?

Maybe I should help you push Ydra and then if she flips scum I'm gonna "shut up" and accept RC was bordering being toxic as scum intentionally rather than because he was town frustrated

But then what if Ydra flips town Ali?

Will you "SHUT UP" too?

VOTE: Ydrasse

Will you shut up if Ydra flips town?

then what's your alternative?

Prob one in [Implo, Bingle, RCE]

maybe one in [Key, Dann, Freedom]

/shrug

I can join the Freedom wagon if that's the consensus, sure

I'm not sure this is the slot with the highest odds of flipping scum today though, and if it flips town I believe the same people that are pushing Ydrasse as scum should likely stop

VOTE: Freedom

That's E-1 according to my counting.

Oh, actually you have voted implosion now

okay

VOTE: Implosion

I think Freedom could be scum though, I don't know how to read Freedom because he often provides too little content. One of the reasons I agreed to vote there despite my positive feelings towards Merlyn is that I doubt Freedom will provide me with positive feelings in the same way. A townread there will need to depend on a flimsy early read on Merlyn in D1 for the rest of the game and that feels kinda bad if they're by any chance scum.

Actually. This will look weird considering my above posts but I'm really starting to hate lurking or active lurking because it's such an unfun playstyle to play against given it barely feels like you get a chance to read the person so I may as well do this

VOTE: Freedom

I'm going to tentatively replace Freedom with Ali in my five slots to be sparred

I'm not solid on this yet though

[Ydrasse/Beeboy/Taly/Ali]

I'm also removing Sakura for a bit, I've doubts

what do you think of this progression

ssbm_kyouko

?

It's an ISO I dont have the context for, idek where the meuh flip happens in that ISO. I was hard pinged by that one post where Shirou was replying to Bingle bringing up no elim. I do think that could be a legit scumslip and I probably won't ever spare Shirou because of it but if I make it to late game I'll have to reevaluate that. From the way people talk about beeboy/myself I see myself getting spared or killed with 2 day/night cycles if we go mercy so Shirou is probably not a decision I'll have to make

[ssbm_Kyouko]

When I catch up to that post I'll reply again though

[ssbm_Kyouko]

There's no night phase so hammering heal now or when I catch up makes no difference to me. I'll still be catching up though for a day or two. Work is busier than is hoped or I think I'd be caught up tomorrow

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Alisae, can you talk to me on Dann? Because I think Dann's posting is very clean. Like it's polished and worked on, I can tell he puts thought into his posts in a way that is hard to replicate. It makes it easy to townread cause it looks like good solving. What makes Dann a wolf? Can you point me to your posts?

So, everything that you're describing is very realistically likely to come from Dannflor. Dannflor really likes deepwolfing and they will just look very good.
I think the biggest differences between a town!Dannflor and a wolf!Dannflor is that town!Dannflor has moments that are easily able to be identified as the guy just wanting to be right where as wolf!Dannflor will just opt to look very good. I think Dannflor is a wolf who does not want to be right on me and is doing literally everything in his power to try to keep me in poe.

Not to agree with Dannflor being scum but why shouldn't you be in the poe (at this point in the game)? You're saying town!Dannflor would not have you in his poe or am I oversimplifying your meaning here?

[ssbm_Kyouko]

but why not tho

[ssbm_Kyouko]

ok o wise one

[ssbm_Kyouko]

How does it feel to be one step closer to ascension Dunn?

[ssbm_Kyouko]

troubled
i’m having a hard time discerning scum, i think meuh could be because her arguments lately haven’t been it for me

but i don’t feel like there’s a lot to solve freedom off of.

i think atp either of those two wagons are the best option but… meh. low confidence on alisae town rn.

same I probably glazed over it since I'm reading very fast, but I didn't follow where the freedom votes came from because Merlyn seemed okay to my recollection

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Taly

has been daykilled.

I panicked in the pedit ngl but then I saw it wasn't isis

[ssbm_Kyouko]

I guess i'll go play some videogames, and come back with a clearer mind.
Then i'll try to figure out this mess.
But there's one thing that's been bugging me.
And that is Alisae.
I dont think Alisae Scum makes the kind of posts e did towards me.
In fact sometimes i think that i'm eir literal focus this entire phase.
Yet if Alisae's town, then i'm wrong somewhere.
And i need to figure out where my head is at.
My gut's telling me to vote freedom.
My mind's telling me to stay on Meuh.
My townreads say freedom's likely town.
My heart says Meuh's likely town.

I don't even know where to go anymore

Flips table

Ok, rant over, maybe i do really need to clear my head a bit.

Like this makes Sakura scum a hard pill to swallow

fwiw I got the opposite vibe

[ssbm_Kyouko]

give me a succinct reason for

sakura

scum

Fake-feeling lack of confidence, odd treatment of townreads around her, paranoia mismatched with actual progression, not assuming her stances and delegating them to others

im not ready to consider

sakura

-scum, that world somewhat dictates a team of deepwolves and im not starving for scumreads anymore.

@Taly - Why make 2601 if this is the response? To say you're not starving for scumreads at this point means you have several? Or does it mean you don't feel like you need more anymore? Both?

It's not so close to deadline (a couple of days) that meuh has to be the flip here and the deadline is even getting an extension based on Random Nurse's replacement timer (which was still pending) + 24 hours. 2601 feels disingenuous when it seems like you don't care for an answer some 20 minutes later. There was an opportunity here I think for you to lead something away from Meuh and if you weren't lacking scumreads I feel like, were I in your shoes after asking 2601 (which looks like "give me a reason it shouldn't be you - give me someone else instead"), I would, as town, be having misgivings about eliminating Meuh. You don't seem to have them though.

Does anyone else (@Dunnstral especially with your hours being numbered) see partner equity between Taly and Sakura from this? It feels like if Meuh's answer were not Sakura that maybe Taly was willing to a do a different townie since Meuh had commited a sparelist containing Taly?

Even after the hammer Taly asks for a "final" readslist which realistically is innocuous and NAI, but after typing all this out it feels like reaching for a final stamp of approval from who Taly knows will flip town. This last bit is confbiased from my interpretation of 2601 and its continuation though.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

kind of just want to vote random ari slot atp my brain is goop

I even missed the original 2605, Ydrasse was on Meuh's wagon at hammer so there was definitely opportunity to move elsewhere

[ssbm_Kyouko]

i also need to look at keyleth closer as well, a lot of that read is tonal and excitement but it’s fakeable i think and iirc key voted closer to where i expect wolves to

Reassuring to see mandate's slot is not blindly on board with town!Keyleth, helps with misgivings about mandate and by extension his read on Dannflor that have been developing since his main was revealed to be RC

[ssbm_Kyouko]

I still think, I wanna go spare and send Ydrasse over because with that I'll feel much better with the town core established early because there reads seemed really well written. If that slot is bad then obviously so is my way of handling this game.

I get concerned seeing this shortly after Ydrasse starts to reconsider Keyleth's alignment. Assuming Dunn flips scum we'll need to be careful of this sort of thing, because as we spare consensus town, we get left with the less-consensus town that might have not been spared if the consensus town were still around as stumps or something like that. If Dunn is scum we'll need to be wary of them crafting a scenario where they can slip a deepwolf through to sparing by way of sparing and killing the townies that would otherwise not spare that deepwolf. Like this is obvious I think but should still be stated in case it's missed by anyone.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

i don’t move my vote a lot and i wasn’t compelled enough at that point, i think i could have gotten there but idk

What I mean was, Taly definitely had the opportunity to start something else after questioning Meuh on "who instead" because you're right there voicing that "hey maybe it's not Meuh?"

[ssbm_Kyouko]

I don't think Ydra/Mandate is scum

I would still look in [Alisae, Implo, Ari] and maybe [Dann, Key] here

Freedom very maybe

I'm agreeable to most of this line of thinking and I imagine this is part of the ISO-quotewall that Taly sent me so I'm curious to see how Shirou ends the day on Freedom

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Spoiler: Beetlejuice

Sorry Dann it wasn't meant to you

I typed it out before I saw you had sent new posts

I'll reply this to you before going!

what is your suspicion with keyleth, shirou

I just think she feels on that "meh" spot where scum may be, her posts are fine at face-value but I don't feel much of a desire of solving the game from her

She's "just there" and I've increasingly become aware that a lot of the time scum are "just there"

Mm, I don't think I could vote Ydra here, she has good posts and I also really liked the Mandate slot before. Whenever Mandate was under pressure they seemed to make great posts and ways that just made sense for a defense? I feel like for them to be a wolf they would've had to do that from the start or at least plan it and who does it? Apparently, they were an obvious alt and I see how that makes people twist a bit but is it really that bad?

I feel like I should read into that because it means either my reads are sort of nice or I'm blatantly wrong and that nag at the back of my head? I want to know more about it. Like is the game really as simple as beeboy/Shirou being right on each other and Me/Dann/Implo/Taly being right on each other early? It could be and god do I want it to be.

Alisae, we should talk because your recent posting is making me feel a bit, odd? Like, I know I have a weird way of playing so I can respect unconventional means of town reading or replaying the game yet I don't get where your head is? Maybe that's on me, and I want it to be. Can you talk to me more on your reads because I see you have a good list of Poe where a lot of others have not yet you caught up so late were there like, any really good or bad posts that made you town or wolfbin someone?

My reads are mostly PoE I don't have a deep chongus case on anyone here other than my townreads

It's one of the reasons the game feels hard too

Can you list who exactly would towncore right now and send over? A few sentences would be great but totally not required if you wish to be lazy

Maybe this is a skill issue but Meuh's flip did not help me as much as I thought it would.

Maybe this is a skill issue but Meuh's flip did not help me as much as I thought it would.

Because wasn't Meuh a nearly consensus vote? I guess I'm just a tad confused on how this seemed to change so much. Bleh, words are hard.

Not the first time I've thought Keyleth to be beetlejuicing (as I recall it's the second)

[ssbm_Kyouko]

no

no what?

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Alisae, we should talk because your recent posting is making me feel a bit, odd? Like, I know I have a weird way of playing so I can respect unconventional means of town reading or replaying the game yet I don't get where your head is? Maybe that's on me, and I want it to be. Can you talk to me more on your reads because I see you have a good list of Poe where a lot of others have not yet you caught up so late were there like, any really good or bad posts that made you town or wolfbin someone?

Bee is town
Ari slot is town
Bingle is town
Dunnstral I don't care to form a read on but gun to head town
Taly is town
Sakura is town

ok great that leaves me w/

Dannflor
Lazy Shirou
Merlyn/Freedom
Keyleth
Mandate/Ydrasse
implosion

i kind of don't want to fight Dann anymore after whatever that was
{Ydra Freedom} probably has a wolf in it I think it's Ydra. It can have 2 wolves in it.
Implosion I've just never townread.
Shirou I want to townread but I probably shouldn't
and then there's you
you exist and ig I want to TR you but like I probably shouldn't

Either way I'm pretty much very happy with just flipping the entire Meuh wagon

I can see this coming from frustrated town - frustrated about Meuh being killed assuming Ali was trying to stop it the day before. I know e was elsewhere with er vote I just don't recall how vocal e was about it not being Meuh. Going to pause the catch-up here to review that otherwise I'll probably forget to

[ssbm_Kyouko]

okay i caught up
I think
Ari, Bee, Sakura, Shirou, Taly, and Key are all probably town.
Brown eyes is probably town as well.
Then there's Merlyn, Dunn, and Meuh. Meuh is kind of just unreadable to me.
And then there's Dann Implo Mandate
and I think Dann is the most suspicious. I think Dann's read on me is technically fine but I think they overexplained and overjustified it and I think that comes across as wolfy to me. They also screamed wolf to me early.
I think Dann is teammates w/ Implo

alisae

vote

meuh

with me

ask me again in 48 hours
I'd also just be happy if you voted Dann

Meuh is a really hard player to read but I also have literally no grasp at how it is they play the game.

the best way for me to read meuh at the current moment is to flip her

You can vote Meuh.
Meuh is an unreadable player to me. I'll probably compromise there.

ok sike on my last post ali is just scum and has spewed that Dann Taly and I are town

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Like definitely Dann fmpov and probably me from an outside pov, Taly maybe the interaction is faked but prolly not

{ali, sakura, RCE, there was another name here and I'm blanking entirely}

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Might just be aristeia is the other name and I then thought Random Nurse and finally RCE so with 5 names in my head I feel short stopping at 3 but I think there was another

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Keyleth, keyleth was the name

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Spoiler: long quote for little comment

Though I think implo said something about spare being good based off EV.
And I think we can take his word with it.
P-edit: @Ydra

Alas, alas.

I also am inclined to go after the empty slot next.

Because there's going to be no contributions from it?
I might have to read Ari's iso first but I guess we could go for it if Ari was scummy.

Otherwise, it might be good going for what Shirou suggested with reading slots defensive of Meuh.

Hi RCE!

Your immediate predecessor RN was virtually non-existent so it'd be good if you could do something.

Hey! I’ve read 5ish pages, I have….varying confidence in reads but one was that meuh was town, so that’s nice I guess.

At the very least pushing to hammer in the middle of finding a replacement is !SKETCHY! So that’s also nice, I guess.

Idk what kind of bit I’m doing but I’ll probably keep it going till I get bored, I guess.

What are your current thoughts on

Spare

/

Fight

?

Alas, alas.

I also am inclined to go after the empty slot next.

Because there's going to be no contributions from it?
I might have to read Ari's iso first but I guess we could go for it if Ari was scummy.

Nah, I never really found Ari as town and have mentioned a couple times that the slot is in my PoE.

It was more so for me to remind myself to read Ari's ISO.

Actually, I realise you were answering my question.

*just realised

My bad.

Reading up now.

i scumread this because it is a lot of presence but there is nothing substantial coming from it

You’ve sold me VOTE: Freedom

i dont think many people are being intellectually honest about solving right now

Like ok Taly is town and RCE/Ali are probably 2 of the 3 scum atp

I don't put a fake townslip past scum!Ali btw

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Page 17 added reads
-beeboy town
-Merlyn scum, just because I just remember they existed and that doesn’t feel….Merlyn…y
-Shirou could actually be towning and the forces Dunn deeper into a scum Poe for me.

I’m basically going to live or die on townreading Alisae this game. I’m unreasonably confident on their alignment.

You’re pretty secure in my townreads.

If I had to compare you guys to anime I’d say you’re like, my hero academia - it took me a few episodes to think, oh ok this is going to be a banger

But Alisae is JJK - I watched an episode and said “oh my god this is heat”

Reads are looking like:

Town af - alisae
Town - Taly/Ydrasse
Reasonably town - brown eyes/Sakura
Growing on me - Shirou/keyleth/beeboy
Eh idk - dann
—————-
Dunn goes here
Dunno pile - shirou/implosion
Freedom

Rip meuh

Like how is this a real opinion on Alisae

[ssbm_Kyouko]

what changed with your sakura read?

I had a moment of weakness from like one of her posts and it just didn't hold up as I continued reading. That said I'm feeling pretty confident in {Alisae, RCE} right now, more confident than in scum!Sakura, so I could just be wrong there as I have suspicions about Keyleth as well. Can't be 4 scum. Also I think with Sakura I've at times felt she has equity with Dunnstral (not voiced) and Taly (posted about this recently), but Taly is probably just town and I'm probably reading in to 2601 too far, though

@Taly

I do still want a response regarding 2601 - more of a response than 'no' if that's what your answer was

[ssbm_Kyouko]

You’ve sold me VOTE: Freedom

VOTE: freedom

VOTE: Freedom

VOTE: Dannflor

dannflor because of defending against the ydrasse wagon upfront
implosion since i feel like their posts have not achieved or set a definitive stance, and what i do remember of them has largely gone with the flow in a gamestate that has been proven to be misguided

Can I ask, do you feel that ydrasse is a wolf and the way dann defended it is partner like, or are you just saying that the defense of the ydrasse wagon pinged you? If so, in what way? Because I was reading the wagon myself and I'm not seeing what you are.
What exactly are you expecting from town implosion in this case because I see your statement but I don't get the aha wolf! Part of the statement?

Willing to sheep the freedom vote though!

VOTE: Freedom

Like I'm willing to believe Meuh is maybe a victim of a combination of the deadline and impatient (maybe not impatient but exhausted by replacements) town but it feels to me that amongst these early freedom votes there's at least 1 if not 2 scum latching on to townleader!Taly. Which maybe is a good thing for Sakura because amidst all of this she has her own idea of where things should be going.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Maybe i should've read the next post first, oops

Just going to quote this to remind myself of +town for Sakura in case I need to evaluate her more directly down the line and miss this. Maybe this is just a newscum thing to do (or a me-scum thing to do) but I feel like scum reads ahead more often than not and doesn't always just post their first thought in fear that they might ask something that has already been answered, or commit to a stance that is not favorable to them.

I get the feeling I'm not ever going to be comfortable TRing Sakura despite some of her posts that give me townvibes. In that way she reminds me of marcistar, not sure if I've pointed that out already but I have thought it while reading

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Then

Freedom

pinged me and then the playerlist became my echo chamber again

mood

we should probably spare taly first so this doesn't keep happening

[ssbm_Kyouko]

What do you think of the

ali/Shirou

1v1?

I'll read it again but I just read it and I like Shirou's side of it a lot

[ssbm_Kyouko]

I don't know Shirou or Alisae well enough to decide if that was theatre but I don't feel like it was. Seems like town!Shirou is actually peeved and scum!Alisae is just being disruptive.
2693-2765 is the 1v1 I'm referring to, not sure if there's another more recent one

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Actually. This will look weird considering my above posts but I'm really starting to hate lurking or active lurking because it's such an unfun playstyle to play against given it barely feels like you get a chance to read the person so I may as well do this

VOTE: Freedom

@Taly I feel like Shirou arrived here in a way that is not suspicious now that I have some more context

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Ego and UNVOTE:
Replacing beeboy

I am arrived

[ssbm_Kyouko]

freedom picking only one person to town read and that person being someone who hasn't really been in the mix to be spared feels like antispew personally

Does antispew mean scum!Freedom is spewing a teammate scum!Alisae or does it mean scum!Freedom is giving a token opinion on a slot that is not really in the mix because he doesn't want to influence the current sparepool by commenting on it after he flips scum?

Obviously Freedom flipped town I just don't know exactly what antispew means - whether it is spew on the scumteam or just trying to avoid town/scum-spew

[ssbm_Kyouko]

i don’t think you played hard enough if you don’t look back at your posts after the game is finished and cringe at least once

Never look back in sadness. Only full, unmitigated fury.


DANNFLOR WHY HAVE YOU BETRAYED ME!

I'm here now and I feel like I've been focused on other slots and holding on to an early Brown Eyes TR to the point that I probably need to reevaluate BE/Bingle at some point. I remember good vibes from Brown Eyes though, like maybe something that I felt was really hard to fake as scum.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

maybe the game

is

as easy as

Freedom/Bingle/X

Partly made the last post because I saw this and it reminded me of Dannflor's hipfire scumteam including myself and Bingle and I just didn't understand where the Bingle SR came from, but maybe I glazed it

[ssbm_Kyouko]

town core is like implosion, taly, keyleth, ydrasse

This feels like a really gross towncore. Like... I'm never comfortable hard townreading Ydrasse after too many games of watching Mena do that and lose hard. Taly is probably just the leader here and the more I think about the gamestate being weird the more I think that's not really townreadworthy-ish. I'll admit I've been falling into the trap of letting Taly be my rock to kind of guide me, but I don't know that there's something he's done to deserve that. Implo is solidly null for me, and a hard townread there is just :/ And legitimately I can't remember shit for keyleth's alignment.

This is sort of a weird post, especially the part about Taly. Feels like a weird thing to call "gross". The Ydrasse thing sounds like it's Bingle's issue, "Mena is bad at townreading Ydrasse so no one can do it with accuracy" is a non-argument. The Taly thing is just not engaging with anything Taly has actually done, how his reads have shifted or his interactions with the game state or so on or so forth. The comment on me (and also on Keyleth) also kind of feels like "I don't have a read here so I don't understand how anyone can have a hard townread here". And I don't really understand what the conclusion about Dannflor is supposed to be either. I get it's a catchup post but it's weird.

3171 glad to see you've gotten there but please don't say it too loud so she does not get shot :X

This might be the first post of implosions where I feel like i'm getting an actual vibe from. Like I think early on I saw, Mandate I think it was, TRing implo, and I was like "sure ok I can't really read implo well anyways. I buy that." And maybe because I lack confidence in sorting implo, or maybe because I decided to sheep Mandate early enough, I skimmed through his posts more than I should have, but I am getting townvibes here which I'm thinking is going to make things a lot easier for me if I make it to D4/D5 when the pool will start narrowing

[ssbm_Kyouko]

You intend to read all these pages?

I gave up this dream ngl.

see that was because you're not invested in sorting this time around

[ssbm_Kyouko]

i still genuinely dont know how to approach

bingle's

alignment

does scum say unhinged shit to save their ass when it wasnt necessary?

but, i want to townread it... because

bingle's

made plays like this as town before

like

what

im honestly trying here and im getting nowhere

I wouldn't try to get anywhere off of the self-meta by itself - just know that offering himself up to be flipped is not inherently scummy. Like if Bingle is aware he does it as town (and he is since he's pointing it out) he can do it as scum. But he can also do it as town, because... he does it as town.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

dunn

what are your final reads?

Spare: Taly, Shirou, Dannflor, ssbm_Kyouko,Ydrasse
Towny: Keyleth, implosion, Sakura Hana

And then shrug, I wouldn't spare the rest. Alisae, RCEnigma, Bingle

These are so close to mine at this point
Hopefully this means Dunn was town and we're cruising into the "late game"

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Keyleth, Lazy Shirou, Taly, Sakura Hana, Dannflor, Dunnstral

oh look
it's the same people that decided to kill meuh

I like this line of thought though

Freedom and Meuh Wagoners:

Taly

, Sakura,

Dunn

, Keyleth

Meuh-Only Wagoner:

implosion, Ydrasse

Freedom-Only Wagoner:

RCEnigma, Shirou, Dannflor

Off Both Wagons at Elimination:

Alisae, Bingle, ssbm_Kyouko

Everyone should succinctly give their spare order of

3.

I have thoughts I don't want to say at the moment

Like according to this there were 4 players on both wagons and one is getting yeeted before we move to D4. We can go kill route and kill all 4 of these players and we only lose if all 4 of them were town.

I think the towncore is likely infiltrated and sparing is a lost cause

HURT:

I like the line of thought but some things to consider:

The odds that the entire scum team are in the town block is low.

The odds scum got Toriel and the other two solidified themselves in the town bloc is… I was gonna say lower but probably not.

If the town bloc is compromised and scum lead both lims then the difference between mercy and fight only comes down to dunns alignment because scum will still have major control over lim targets.

Would also have to consider Taly scum which I’m not thrilled about.

yeah 3401 was dumb I'll say it

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Either way I think I want alisae as the first spare if we are going that route and I’m putting my weight behind whatever lim alisae supports if we fight.

I just don't understand this though like why Alisae. It's so against the grain of everyone else's opinions (as far as I can tell, except maybe Freedom's), and it's hard to see any reason why e should be town - especially hard to see why e would be more town than Taly or {others I should probably stop being specific about}

[ssbm_Kyouko]

what does a spare map potentially even look like

[ssbm_Kyouko]

how does the universe feel about

bingle

spare

I'd listen to what you have to say about that since I'm sparing you first but beyond that I'll keep my own opinion sheltered probably, because NKs

[ssbm_Kyouko]

i do kind of feel that ive been scum reading sakura's personality and every time i've taken a step back from the game and tried to look at her actions more objectively I end up town reading her

Maybe it's also her personality for me but I don't think in sparegame that it will end up mattering

[ssbm_Kyouko]

I'm caught up.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Idk if Dunn has disappeared - looking at the timestamps on Dunn's recent posts he might just be at work or school and will come post in an hour or 2 and stay online for about 8 hours after that

[ssbm_Kyouko]

I think you're thinking of D4 as D3 and of D5 as D4. We're in D3 now (voteless with a predetermined Dunnstral flip). If Dunnstral flips town it might be worth discussing what to do on D5 before we spare Taly in case I am NKed but I'm not sure yet whether I'm consensus to the point that I will be the D5 spare if I'm alive then.

Regardless I think we figure out what to do after the Dunnstral flip. I think in the case of scum!Dunn we need to be careful about lining up future spares in a spare pool because it just gives scum easy targets

[ssbm_Kyouko]

So like...
Town!Dunn:
D4 = 8:3
D5 = 6:3 (town!Taly spared D4)
From here we would need 2 town before 2 scum, so we would need a pool of 4 consensus town arranged on D4 because of N4,D5/N5,D6 win (if the pool is 100% town)

I guess I am one of that pool of 4 and would need 3 more town - maybe it's doable

if

Dann is town but I'm leaning toward planning ahead to not be in town's interest

Pedit: not reading any of these pedit posts on my phone atm

[ssbm_Kyouko]

N5,D6/N6,D7

Ebwop

[ssbm_Kyouko]

I'm down to talk about who not to spare regardless of Dunn's alignment which for me is RCE and Alisae, g2g for now though

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Main suspects right now are Alisae and RCE.

Please don't flip red

[ssbm_Kyouko]

also should i share who i want spared after me, or am i just NK baiting that slot to high hell

i need thoughts from as many people as possible on this

I think, if you think we won't get there on our own, then maybe yes. And maybe its safer to discuss it as a pair of 2 people, that way if one is NKed the other remains. But we should be good kids and wait for the flip before that

[ssbm_Kyouko]

okay i caught up
I think
Ari, Bee, Sakura, Shirou, Taly, and Key are all probably town.
Brown eyes is probably town as well.
Then there's Merlyn, Dunn, and Meuh. Meuh is kind of just unreadable to me.
And then there's Dann Implo Mandate
and I think Dann is the most suspicious. I think Dann's read on me is technically fine but I think they overexplained and overjustified it and I think that comes across as wolfy to me. They also screamed wolf to me early.
I think Dann is teammates w/ Implo

alisae

vote

meuh

with me

ask me again in 48 hours
I'd also just be happy if you voted Dann

Meuh is a really hard player to read but I also have literally no grasp at how it is they play the game.

the best way for me to read meuh at the current moment is to flip her

You can vote Meuh.
Meuh is an unreadable player to me. I'll probably compromise there.

ok sike on my last post ali is just scum and has spewed that Dann Taly and I are town

why does it only spew

dann/you/me

-town?

Looking at this alone I'm not remembering, I'll have to look at Alisae again probably Friday because tomorrow is Thanksgiving. Probably what it is is I cant see why from the ISO because ali doesnt quote people so you have to go into the thread to see what e is replying to.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

I think he’s town tbh

Some of Dunn's posts this day make me feel like he's sitting on a chair with a glass of wine looking at us and going "muwahahahaha" and make me more anxious

It's both

[ssbm_Kyouko]

(expired on 2023-11-24 05:17:50)

3am for me

[ssbm_Kyouko]

The only explanations for Alisae's play here are 1) scum that is so far behind in the game that the only way to squeeze a win out is to be completely against the grain and hope if e says it loud enough as though it's true for long enough, eventually town will glaze over and accept it

Or 2) a lot of us are wrong about our reads and we're about to spare scum starting toMorrow

I just feel like there are several town that are solidly so and it doesn't make sense to be saying things like "I'm going to spare RCE" unless it's like literally your only hope as scum

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Also not voting yet because I do want some time, like now that Dunn has flipped town we might have enough numbers to discuss a spare pool that actually makes it the distance

[ssbm_Kyouko]

we are in 8:3 sparegame with 1:0 ratio
to win we must spare 3 town before 2 mafia
Taly is town - assume we are in 6:3 sparegame with 2:0 ratio
we need to spare 2 town before 2 mafia but one of our town will be NKed before the first spare so to spare 2 town we need 4 locktowns

Players who will be alive after we spare Taly but before the NK:

1. Dannflor
   
2. RCEnigma
   Random Nurse
   Aristeia
   
   
3. Lazy Shirou
   
4. Bingle
   Brown Eyes
   
   
5. Sakura Hana
   
6. Keyleth
   
7. Ydrasse
   Mandate
   
   
8. Alisae
   
9. implosion
   
10. ssbm_kyouko
    beeboy

I don't think I can select 3 others off this list I'm fully confident in flipping town, let alone 4 others if I was not in the 4 to be spared. I don't think we have the numbers to lock in further spares going into D5 and 6. Taly do you want to towncase your sleeper spares before you are spared so we have it for later? You were saying nobody is talking about sparing your top 2.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Idk so im pretty worried scum are exclusively playing towards getting town read only by the townies who are *still gonna be alive* when it comes to making the final spare decision or two

so i kinda think the hard pocketing of alisae by RCE might be nefarious

I've been thinking along similar lines, like what happens when I'm gone and Alisae/RCE are still here, but realistically it's going to come down to the people that are still alive at that time to figure it out. So if you're alive in a couple of Days and reading this, just think about that.

Like I'm trying to be loud about what I think now because I think Alisae outlives me and e is also loud about basically the opposite of my reads

[ssbm_Kyouko]

I dont think that was hammer I think you got aoy of unvotes so you would have time, last VC i saw you were only at 2 votes (maybe you were at -2 though?)

Anyways VOTE: Taly

[ssbm_Kyouko]

I dont think that was hammer I think you got

a lot

of unvotes so you would have time, last VC i saw you were only at 2 votes (maybe you were at -2 though?)

Anyways VOTE: Taly

EBWOP

[ssbm_Kyouko]

GG, that was:
- a lot of work to catch up
- a lot of fun to spectate after I died

[ssbm_Kyouko]

oh btw @isis I think I was disrespectful in a couple of my posts in my catchup, I was just shitposting, thanks for hosting

3398 was one of them and I can't find the other but I think there were 2

[ssbm_Kyouko]

yeah i wish i had been awake to like disrupt that somehow, that was a wp moment of town finding each other

i woke up to the hammer

I thought something along these lines after I found out you were scum - if you were online that might not have happened

You were convincing