Open 878: Scarfolk Council | The End

[Aisa]

I am around now.
…exceptionally.
for two minutes until I thwack my head onto a pillow again.

[Aisa]

that was funny

That literally is all the affirmation I want from this game, you can all wagon me now and I am good.

How’d you know she wasn’t talking about Cephy

[Aisa]

wow so exciting

Thanks. Limited edition Aisa is, indeed, even more exciting than normal Aisa. <3

[Aisa]

I am around now.
…exceptionally.
for two minutes until I thwack my head onto a pillow again.

HI AISA

Hi ^^

DID YOU ROLL SK?

OMG YES!! WE BOTH ROLLED SK? There’s like a 1/676 chance of that, wow, that’s so rare

[Aisa]

I have 0-6 reads depending on how you define a “read”

[Aisa]

Tell me about the implosion read?

[Aisa]

invis & sheep somewhat town so far.

I liked this post from implo b/c:
- moving the game along by creating some real content
- i had thought the same thing abt vizzy

Does anything distinguish implo’s posting, from, say, sheep who has also stated a serious read or two so far?

[Aisa]

I have 0-6 reads depending on how you define a “read”

Please do share.

I may have exaggerated a little. Two of the reads were stuff like "[Player] did [thing] that I'm pretty sure is AI but I don't know in what direction". Maybe I'll wait to see what they do next and I can elaborate later.

But I can talk about the other 4.

Drew:

his vibe was pretty spontaneous and talkative and based on my general idea of his character / previous experience I think this is town-indicative for him. As scum, I think he would have been a little less fluid as scum or maybe just not joked around in the thread as much. This was my strongest read at the time of the post.

Invisibility:

basically Alianna / you pinged me as scum too before I saw Invis's post, so I though invisibility was very very slightly towny based on that.

Sheep:

also thought sheep was maaaybe town for the thoughts on Invisibility I agreed with + the early attempt to solve. I know other people have said this *shrug*

Especially Invisibility and sheep ^ were based on not very much and I expect these reads to change very easily.

Alianna / you:

you pinged me as scum a bit just due to *vibes*. Some posts sounded possibly overwrought / forced / just a little different from how you usually sound? I think I can illustrate best with an example.

I'm not willing to townlean anyone on the basis of "has reads" but I guess I won't complain about it too much.

I'm also not willing to townlean anyone on the basis of "has reads" for the whole game, but I think it's a good place to start in RVS when there isn't much else to talk about. So this post read as a concern that's possibly a little forced.

It's kinda hard for me to make a convincing case here because there are plenty of reasons town!you could have said that. Maybe it's just what you were thinking at the time and decided to share it. But think of it as an example of a post that I thought was a little strangely timed and if this were to continue, I would worry more.

I have to go now but I can talk more later ~

[Aisa]

the other half is reads that change with the weather if the weather had a mood disorder.

And these reads are basically justified with "meta" or "gut read" or "reasons" that aren't explicitly stated. It's pretty difficult to read anything into the posts.

You’re always welcome to ask for clarification on any reads I give. Even when I say something is a gut read, I am usually able to explain it at least a bit in words.

Why is the wagon on Andante good?

[Aisa]

Spoiler: live footage of me as I prepare to catch up on this thread. ama.

[Aisa]

are you going to eat the thread?

Unclear. Is a bit too much just for me. Maybe a post or two

[Aisa]

I'll keep that in mind, ty

Why is the wagon on Andante good?

Came in with some brazen stuff and immediately self-declared obv town. The assumption ig is that scum wouldn't engage in any bravado or start questioning TRs on themselves? But that assumption is worth more when it's not Andante just saying "So what I did just now makes me locktown". It comes off as awareness of reads on yourself, and like, feigning confidence in RVS is just super easy to do. She did this after saying Implo is tryharding early.

It's a solid place for a wagon.

I need to reread the thread and try to figure out if I have any town reads based on anything said that early. I think Invis and skitter saw the logic in

not

seeing the logic in Andante's posts, but I'm not sure if there were any more, and I don't have a better yardstick for townie behavior thus far.

Why is "not seeing the logic in Andante's posts" townie behaviour?

[Aisa]

Unrelated point but I think Andante just

is

straight-out towny for her posts on page 5 (posts 100-125)

[Aisa]

but in the games ive played with ppl they were also like "this is NAI for andante, that is NAI for andante" so I wouldnt let this take me past like, page 10

this feels like you're leaving that opening to walk back that town lean you have on me.. like, when you see people pushing me, you have that door wide open to vote me and go "oh lol meta isn't reliable here"

idk yea I was sorta explicitly walking it back lol, like "theoretically if u did nothing I find towny after this, then it would go straight back to null soon cuz im so unconfident"

the intention was mostly to try to get things going by expressing mild feels

but I also think I feel more strongly about the townread now, so that prob wont happen

Andante is town because meta

I don't really have a marked opinion on Andante yet. Maybe like ever so slight lean town.

Oh, looks like that wasn't the hot take I thought it was

[Aisa]

Umlaut, I am so in love with all the aesthetics of this game. Even the rules post is aesthetic.

Doctor Drew might be scum

Counterpoint, I also might not be.

Locktowned

*this is tongue in cheek

Alianna is likely scum

p sure I caught one already VOTE: alianna

always scum

also like, alianna isn't even talking?? how did you catch alianna?

why did you change your tune here? 73 and 75 were posted 61 seconds apart.

nothing changed? I thought that was an e-1 vote, we're not throwing someone on e-1 for 0 reason, and especially not announcing e-1? mena was asking for that to be hammered...

Seems like a towny response

[Aisa]

Current reads: Andante is towny because reasons, Aisa and Invisibility are towny because vibes, Doc and CSF are ever so slightly north of null (Doc because I kind of want to trust Aisa's meta read and CSF because 151 is a good post), and skitter might be sus but I need to re-read her ISO.

Can you tell me about Invis's vibes?

[Aisa]

Why is "not seeing the logic in Andante's posts" townie behaviour?

It's a healthy kind of skepticism. They're looking for evidence of being townie, not just confident assertions.

What if they're scum looking for something to criticise?

[Aisa]

VOTE: GuerillaWoo

[Aisa]

@Aisa did I miss one of your questions?

Nope, that ain’t it

[Aisa]

@Aisa did I miss one of your questions?

Nope, that ain’t it

Can I ask you how you feel about my vote on you, GuerillaWoo?

[Aisa]

Can I ask you how you feel about my vote on you, GuerillaWoo?

It's awkward. Do you want me to specifically ask why you voted for me or do you want us to just simmer in it for a while?

Town!Aisa could have reasons to hop on my wagon that have nothing to do with me, and if you willfully did not interpret #332 as an invitation to clarify the vote, I'm just gonna let you take the lead.

How many votes away from elimination do you think you are?

[Aisa]

Ok that's all thanks
If you're town I'm so sorry
UNVOTE:
I'll explain in the next post

[Aisa]

[...]

If you think Andante is a good wagon, why did you never vote her?

She's already got 3 votes, no need to E-1 this early
[...]

I noticed you seemed to think the number of votes needed to eliminate was 5. It's actually 7, because there are 13 players in this game.
There's also been some discussion of who you thought was voting you and why you thought they were voting you.

I also noticed that you had 3 votes on you - CSF, Drew, Alianna. This got me wondering what would happen if I cast a fourth vote on you. Would you act like you were at E-1? Would you slip up and contradict yourself?

FWIW I don't know what to make of our whole interaction yet. Maybe I'll write some thoughts on it later, but right now I just want to let it sit in my brain for a bit.

[Aisa]

If you're town I don't mind the mistake
and also I don't think signing up for a game without fully understanding the setup is a crime against humanity haha

[Aisa]

On Alianna:
- I don't really scumlean her anymore. She's nullish.
- I don't find Dunnstral's reasons for scumreading her super convincing. Personally I feel like I have both the issues he accuses her of (1. reads sorted by post count, 2. not enough scumreads / "null reads" that logically should be scumreads) all the time as town.

HOWEVER I am mostly here to say that

Yeah your reads are sorted by post count. I don't really by that as being a genuine thought process, but rather a byproduct of playing to the crowd.

I do feel that when I was scum with her in a hydra, she mostly went for "non-controversial" reads, so, if she is scum here, I would expect her readslist to look similar to what she's posted. But I can also see town!Alianna making this readslist, so I just shrug

[Aisa]

On Alianna:
- I don't really scumlean her anymore. She's nullish.
- I don't find Dunnstral's reasons for scumreading her super convincing. Personally I feel like I have both the issues he accuses her of (1. reads sorted by post count, 2. not enough scumreads / "null reads" that logically should be scumreads) all the time as town.

HOWEVER I am mostly here to say that

Yeah your reads are sorted by post count. I don't really by that as being a genuine thought process, but rather a byproduct of playing to the crowd.

I do feel that when I was scum with her in a hydra, she mostly went for "non-controversial" reads, so, if she is scum here, I would expect her readslist to look similar to what she's posted. But I can also see town!Alianna making this readslist, so I just shrug

As I kinda said before, Alianna gets in her own head. This used to make me scum read her, but as you put it is NAI to me now.

I accept your general point, but I'm not sure if you're trying to address a specific part of my post with this

[Aisa]

On Alianna:
- I don't really scumlean her anymore. She's nullish.
- I don't find Dunnstral's reasons for scumreading her super convincing. Personally I feel like I have both the issues he accuses her of (1. reads sorted by post count, 2. not enough scumreads / "null reads" that logically should be scumreads) all the time as town.

HOWEVER I am mostly here to say that

Yeah your reads are sorted by post count. I don't really by that as being a genuine thought process, but rather a byproduct of playing to the crowd.

I do feel that when I was scum with her in a hydra, she mostly went for "non-controversial" reads, so, if she is scum here, I would expect her readslist to look similar to what she's posted. But I can also see town!Alianna making this readslist, so I just shrug

As I kinda said before, Alianna gets in her own head. This used to make me scum read her, but as you put it is NAI to me now.

I accept your general point, but I'm not sure if you're trying to address a specific part of my post with this

More just sheeping your read of her.

What an honour, being sheeped on a nullread

[Aisa]

VOTE: sheepsaysmeep
Idk fellow citizens of Scarfolk his towniness seems a bit overrated to me
Would anyone like to convince me this slot is town?

Spoiler: gif

Yes?

[Aisa]

I've mindmelded with some stuff he said

I have very mixed feelings on mindmelding but the short of it is I'm not sure it's actually been a >rand tell for me.

and also he seems to be making an effort to solve. Changing his mind between 313 and 359 in light of new posts is townie.

This is explicitly something I do not townread, maybe even scumread a little bit.

While I think that changing your reads can sometimes be towny, I don't think this is the case here. You say that he "changed his mind", but I could equally say that maybe he's "going with the flow". Other players had already said they townleaned Woo because of their recent posting. It's not like sheep had invested a lot of effort into casing him. Why

not

walk back your read as scum here?

Not the world's strongest read but those are my reasons. Do you have a reason to think he's scummy?

Not really any specific reasons, more that I saw sheep's ISO and I thought it was all fakeable stuff. (Which tbf is just the way some town slots will come across.) I was just shopping for a new wagon and thought there would be interesting things to discuss here.

[Aisa]

Happy birthday skitter!

I'm town this game!

The emotional part of my brain wants to townread THIS POST and all the other parts of my brain are like WHY. GO AWAY EMOTIONS
But my emotions are like HERE'S WHY:

[Aisa]

im still curious if u can more precisely describe ur stance on me. like are there things u found wolfy or is it purely "im skeptical of the townreads"

There isn't anyone who is obviously wolfy tome right now but there are people who I am starting to townread. (This happens to me often.) So I'm looking among my nullreads to see if any of them could be scum.

Although I said I had a townlean on you a few pages back, my reasoning at the time was "we had a couple similar thoughts haha". I know this sort of reasoning has made me townread scum in the past so ultimately I'm not giving it much weight.

I think if I had to describe one thing that worries me it's like

Spoiler:

VOTE: drew

oooooo

Cat Scratch Fever do u happen to have any reads on the active posters now? like andante/alianna/me etc.
it's kinda bugging me how ur avoiding commenting on relevant stuff

otherwise I would be townreading u lol. 151 and 213 are rly good imo

also what do I call u is it like Cat or CSF or something

I'm not willing to townlean anyone on the basis of "has reads" but I guess I won't complain about it too much.

this stuff felt slightly wolf to me at surface level.

"I won't complain about it too much" just feels like a wolf perspective in a way that I could see alianna slipping up. either about some correct townreads or wanting to get townread herself for an active start

the idea of town complaining about some page 2 reads just doesnt make sense to me, even if u disagree with the reads.

what I would expect town to do is like, evaluate implosion's alignment based on that

, which doesn't happen;

this post also assumes implosion town in a +0.05% wolf way

idk ive been back and forth on this

How am I supposed to evaluate someone's alignment off "X and Y are towny" with no reasoning? There really wasn't much to sort in the post. Even though I had a guess about the reasoning, I didn't find it AI. I just disagreed with it.

How does it do that?

ur green sorta contradicts u firmly assuming the reason was for giving reads
purple: this is basically me saying the same thing as the green part lol. a) finding it frustrating and b) not wondering "does poor logic make implo scum?" Technically assumes the reads are real + he is town

But I sorta want to drop it and my mind changed lol. ur post after this made me basically get it.
+ other takes made me think ur village

Your thoughts are quite fragmented. You pop in and give a read and the next post you have a new scumread. If you're scum this is not a very demanding posting style.

Although if you're town I think it's fun how you, like, hold your thoughts lightly and wagon shiny things

[Aisa]

Baah I think this is one of those votes where I start typing up some thoughts to justify it and realise I have no real justification -_-

Let's see if this is better
VOTE: skitter30

[Aisa]

happy birthday skitter!

also if this isn't actually a wagon idc UNVOTE:

Sorry lol

Aisa I don't really see how Sheep's posting is fragmented. Really going back through his ISO it feels more reasonable and thoughtful now LOL

how much of that do you still stand by and how much was overthinking

Yeah I had a similar thing where going through his ISO eventually I was like "maybe this is just a townie scumhunting -_-' "

I stand by the fact that his ISO is still fakeable (you'd struggle to convince me there are any clear towntells in there) and I don't think it was unreasonable of me to suspect him. I don't also think my read is gonna be stable going forwards. But right now I feel like his vibes are more towny, if that makes sense?

[Aisa]

I think

@implosion

it would be nice if you could explain your read on sheep
----

Baah I think this is one of those votes where I start typing up some thoughts to justify it and realise I have no real justification -_-

Let's see if this is better
VOTE: skitter30

?

I'm sorry I should probably stop voting before explaining haha

Anyway, I'd like you to scumcase Andante for me if that's ok. I understand that someone having different reads from me doesn't mean they're scum but I'd like to explore the idea that in this specific case, it means that, uh, you're scum

[Aisa]

i can kinda see andante/alianna scum together

And also why you thought this could be a team

[Aisa]

I think

@implosion

it would be nice if you could explain your read on sheep
----

Baah I think this is one of those votes where I start typing up some thoughts to justify it and realise I have no real justification -_-

Let's see if this is better
VOTE: skitter30

?

I'm sorry I should probably stop voting before explaining haha

Anyway, I'd like you to scumcase Andante for me if that's ok. I understand that someone having different reads from me doesn't mean they're scum but I'd like to explore the idea that in this specific case, it means that, uh, you're scum

1. Why do you think could be scum for having this read?
2. Andante came into thia game with a variety of takes that felt fairly outlandish to me: they were v disjointed, strange takes that by themselves didnt make sense, but also didnt make sense as a cohesive unit
3. For example, starting the game sk hunting is just weird and i think it's a weird place for town to start
4. The whole proclaiming herself to be obvtown ans finding people scummy for not seeing it was also kinda scummy

Thanks.

1. I'm afraid my answer won't be completely satisfying, but I'll try. I'm making a character judgment that this is town!Andante. It's more of a character judgment than a true meta read as admittedly I haven't seen her play

that

much.

When I consider the perception other players have of Andante's play I feel like it's common to think that
- She changes her mind very often and often posts stream-of-consciousness posts that can appear disjointed
- Also sometimes says she's obvtown

It sounds like you think those ^ things indicate she's scum. It also sounds like you've played with her before. I don't know if I buy this would be your reaction as town.

2. I can kinda see why you would think this but I also think I can personally see some logic in her posting. There are also things she's said that seem towny to me and I wonder if it's a red flag that you seem to be ignoring those.
3. I'll give you that.
4. That doesn't strike me as scum-indicative for her, as other players have been saying

i can kinda see andante/alianna scum together

And also why you thought this could be a team

How worried andante got at alianna maybe being at e1. Makes sense to me if worried abt her partner getting flipped

Well tbf to you, you made this post when there wasn't much else to talk about.
I think whatever alignment Andante is she probably did think Alianna was close to E-1. It's within the realm of possibility that it was scum-scum but Andante was being fairly brazen, in-your-face scummy if so.

[Aisa]

Uggg
I just dug up an old game I played with Andante to prove my point
And it doesn't prove my point -_-
viewtopic.php?sid=&f=54&t=89608&user_select%5B%5D=35498

This is a year ago so probably not super reliable either way but if it does indicate anything I think it indicates that 1. she's scum this game 2. I am an idiot

[Aisa]

I'm gonna go cry in a corner for a bit bye

*I'm fine, just comedic relief

[Aisa]

I believe I have seen the light. I am overcome with a sudden passion. I want to jump on this bandwagon. I wish to flip this right here and right now. (It's a good thing I can't.)

VOTE: Andante
I am in your clutches no longer you openwolf

[Aisa]

I can kinda see why you would think this but I also think I can personally see some logic in her posting. There are also things she's said that seem towny to me and I wonder if it's a red flag that you seem to be ignoring those.

I believe I have seen the light. I am overcome with a sudden passion. I want to jump on this bandwagon. I wish to flip this right here and right now. (It's a good thing I can't.)

VOTE: Andante
I am in your clutches no longer you openwolf

what happened to this observation?

Brief pop in to answer this, I still think Andante’s posting makes a similar amount of sense to before. Some of the stuff *is* kinda disjointed and contradictory but if you squint you can think of a reason a townie would say it.

What’s changed is that I have decided to up my standards for how good I want Andante’s posting to be. I wanna see her address some of the contradictions + unresolved points in her play. I can write some qs up later but no time now

[Aisa]

am I ignoring this logic too?

Is this directed at me? If so I'm not sure what you mean

[Aisa]

Hi sheep
(I'm a bit tired so I'm just gonna like respond to random stuff and I will systematically address anything I miss today tomorrow)
I think it's like in general as a player I enjoy fooling around for a bit. Sometimes I don't vote my top scumread right away but I like poking and prodding and reactions testing a bit. Or I vote someone who I think is, like, an "underrated" wagon but not necessarily scummiest in absolute terms. When I type it out like this I realise it's a bit daft and maybe I don't need to play these silly games and can cut straight to the chase, but, yeah, just been a habit for a while and takes energy to shake off.

Is there anything in particular you wanna chat about while I'm here?

[Aisa]

Oh, right
@sheep
Bit of column A (no strong scumreads) bit of column B (I might have a stronger scumread but I don't mind investigating a less strong scumread / nullread first). Like, if I had to instantly dayvig someone yesterday I might have chosen skitter instead of you, but I'm also nowhere near confident enough about either scumread that the order in which I investigate them particularly matters to me, and I care more about the process of talking to people than pushing a specific strong scumread at the moment. Does that make sense?

Anyway, scumreads at the moment:
- I think I scumread Andante but that was like quite a spur of the moment thing and I if I sit down and reflect on it the read could change
- I also kinda secretly scumread CSF, maybe less strongly than Andante (but who knows, it's all kind of a tangle at the moment, maybe my reads are changing too often for a ranking to be meaningful). Because she's not very active and my understanding is she just has an activity tell as scum.

Sorry you're tired too I hope it's the kind that'll go away with some rest

[Aisa]

I'm also noticing a slight tone difference from when I was scum with her, but I can't really put it into words yet. I know that's not exactly helpful, just going to note it anyway.

I am curious if u can link this game pls. tho I prob wont read super in depth

viewtopic.php?t=90462

I think it's like in general as a player I enjoy fooling around for a bit. Sometimes I don't vote my top scumread right away but I like poking and prodding and reactions testing a bit. Or I vote someone who I think is, like, an "underrated" wagon but not necessarily scummiest in absolute terms.

like this is something very normal to me that I'd probably do

it's more, something about how u havent rly presented anything directly as wolfy. more wishy-washy. which feels wolfy

[Aisa]

Uh, I don't know how I accidentally submitted. Let's try this again. Looks like Alianna has linked the game so I don't need to worry about that.

I think it's like in general as a player I enjoy fooling around for a bit. Sometimes I don't vote my top scumread right away but I like poking and prodding and reactions testing a bit. Or I vote someone who I think is, like, an "underrated" wagon but not necessarily scummiest in absolute terms.

like this is something very normal to me that I'd probably do

it's more, something about how u havent rly presented anything directly as wolfy. more wishy-washy. which feels wolfy

Ok. I think this is something I am well established to do if you talk to anyone who's played with me before. I think ideally I aspire to be such that if I have a really confident scumread, then that person flips scum most of the time. Because if my confident scumreads don't flip scum, then I was just overconfident?

But I don't know of any strategy that reliably catches scum except meta for certain players and maaaybe just thinking a bunch for several consecutive game days, so I'm just really waffly all the time lol.

[Aisa]

So basically earlier when I saw Andante's play in Terminator my brain decided her play in Terminator was not at all alike to her play here.

It was a mystical experience. In the space of like 5 minutes my brain decided to rewire the reads 180 degrees and went from "skitter is scum for the way she is pushing obvtown Andante" to "skitter is town who saw the light before any of us did". It also turns out that when Andante OMGUSes you it suddenly becomes a lot easier to empathise with the other player she is OMGUSing

So like no I don't scumread skitter right now

[Aisa]

am I ignoring this logic too?

Is this directed at me? If so I'm not sure what you mean

like am I guilty of ignoring the logic behind Andante's posts that Skitter is also guilty of

I just looked at this
Yeah, I think me 10 hours ago would have said you were guilty of this too. I think when I read your earlier posts on Andante I probably softly dismissed them in my head at the time.

Sorry this discussion has become so messy, I think that I have undergone, uh, a lot of read progression in the last 48 hours. If I'd known this was gonna happen I would have, like, just shut up for a bit until my reads settled. But too late for that now, and we're all stuck together trying to understand the mess in my head

[Aisa]

you thought Andante was obvtown? I still don't really understand why you TR'd Andante

In the space of like 5 minutes my brain decided to rewire the reads 180 degrees and went from "skitter is scum for the way she is pushing obvtown Andante" to "skitter is town who saw the light before any of us did".

In this case I am using obvtown is a figure of speech or a shorthand. A more precise but longer way of expressing that thought would have been "skitter is scum for pushing Andante and ignoring the towny elements of her play"

For the Andante read refer to my post talking to skitter earlier. If that doesn't clarify things maybe you could explain which part of it is unclear?

[Aisa]

lol how settled do your reads seem now

Not at all lol
I voted Andante then basically went to live my life and I haven't like really thought about her posting since the vote yet. I'm leaving that for tomorrow. Godspeed to myself and I really really hope the read doesn't change again lol

[Aisa]

I don't feel like much has changed. I'm gonna give Enchant a shot though.

UNVOTE:

Spoken truly like someone who has never played with Enchant before
(Serious posting later)
(Also hi Drew if you're out there *waves* I hope all is good)

[Aisa]

man it's so hard to get into games when nobody is ever live with me

I'm curious where this came from. The game has been going for 6 days and you have been V/LA for like half of this time.
(If you're town I'm sure your feelings are valid!! But it's like :hmm: how did you come to the conclusion that nobody is ever online at your same time)

No I haven't looked back at Andante yet yes that's next on my list

[Aisa]

Don't worry i already prepared fakeclaim for e-1

Ooh are we gonna see another beautiful Doctor fakeclaim

[Aisa]

That makes sense thanks

[Aisa]

@Andante

can you tell me why you decided to claim PR when you had 4 votes on you?

and whoever is my counterwagon is probably a powerful scum, Idk what wagon is

The largest wagon at the time was Drew and there was a VC on the previous page. You even posted on that same page. I'm not saying it's impossible for someone to be posting yet unaware of certain things in a game, but, idk, can you say a few words about this

[Aisa]

it's a light thing cuz I like to force out nonzero reads rn lol

like I wouldnt even try to convince other people of it or anything

"writing off as town" is a bit strong

well you're obviously saying that right now, you think I'm more likely to be town than scum, and you're just going "cause meta"
so I asked for the clarification, like what specific posts, what exactly it was I did, and you're just like "I didn't write you off as town" ok, I know we all have different definitions of tr/whatnot, but you are saying I'm out of null, and leaning town... and now you can't point it out?

I am the worst player to only read off meta. so I want to know what meta you're confident in here to not SR me, but instead have me leaning towards being town

sorry I'm just like, people saying I'm town and meta in the same sentence? I'm calling it out cause you can literally find any kind of game from me to prove whatever "meta" you're trying to prove.. plus I'm like obviously town here so... no free passes to tr me!

This said, I looked at Andante's ISO, and what a baffling hill to die on as scum.
-sighs softly-

[Aisa]

Though now that I have her ISO up >_>, Aisa do you have an updated read on Drew?

I haven't really thought much about Drew past the initial townlean, although one specific post later on that made me go "huh that's towny" was this one:

I like implosion for town, they are making sense and I can see the wheels moving in their head(even though they are way off in my read, I get where they are coming from..... especially when it is coming from a player who doesn't have experience with me, but not trying to get all self meta lol).

Woo, you are misrepping my intentions. I wasn't trying to get other people to make, I don't get how you make that leap. You and Implosion can think what I did had scum motivation and that's fine, but you are really connecting some dots that aren't there and trying to force a case.

I don't buy them as town.

I townread the fact he was doubling down on his Woo scumread even as other people were starting to townread Woo. He had basically the opposite reaction to sheep at the time. Which, reminder, I said this about:

Spoiler:

and also he seems to be making an effort to solve. Changing his mind between 313 and 359 in light of new posts is townie.

This is explicitly something I do not townread, maybe even scumread a little bit.

While I think that changing your reads can sometimes be towny, I don't think this is the case here. You say that he "changed his mind", but I could equally say that maybe he's "going with the flow". Other players had already said they townleaned Woo because of their recent posting. It's not like sheep had invested a lot of effort into casing him. Why

not

walk back your read as scum here?

And, looking at it now, I find that Drew post very believable. If he's faking it scum I think he's nailed that particular post. Woo *was* reaching a bit with his idea that Drew was asking for townreads on himself. I think if you're town in Drew's position you naturally go "wtf dude why would I ever fish so obviously for townreads on myself"

[Aisa]

I believe I've replied to every question for me. If I've missed anything I would appreciate a reminder.

Implosion's Enchant case is very yummy, although still insufficient unless you also thought Drew was scummy in the first place. I wonder about Alianna and skitter's exact reasoning for hopping on now.

I'm not gonna take a position. I'm probably just gonna go sit on that fence over there for a bit. I wanna cleanse my mind from the excesses of the past few days =P

UNVOTE:

[Aisa]

Nothing surprising at 1/3 of town being evil fairly

Can you rephrase this?

[Aisa]

Yeah I mean 4/13 is roughly 1/3 I can get on board with that
I suppose I'm more curious why you brought this up

[Aisa]

Sure thanks
I'll resume my fencesitting

[Aisa]

Love you too

[Aisa]

By the way why i am suddenly on edge.

What did you mean by this? Pick A or B
A: "By the way, why am I suddenly nearly getting eliminated?"
B: "By the way, here is why I may seem suddenly on edge / nervous"

[Aisa]

@Andante

can you tell me why you decided to claim PR when you had 4 votes on you?

and whoever is my counterwagon is probably a powerful scum, Idk what wagon is

The largest wagon at the time was Drew and there was a VC on the previous page. You even posted on that same page. I'm not saying it's impossible for someone to be posting yet unaware of certain things in a game, but, idk, can you say a few words about this

Bump in case you haven't seen this

[Aisa]

It's two separate questions
1. why did you claim PR? (you answered this)
2. were you really not aware of what the other largest wagon was at the time? (except the question phrased this way is unnecessarily leading and aggressive, but, like, can you think of something you might say that might reassure me, or a townie reader if you think there's no point in reassuring me, that you weren't just making up that you didn't know who the other largest wagon was?)

[Aisa]

Main issue that while there provided "Evidence" that my town meta that scum meta that.

I don't have meta. Even if i did, you only provided game which proved YOUR point to condemn me. You was in games where opposite also happened yet you decided to delete them from your memories because they ruin your point.

Do you think you could link one a game where you were town, replaced in, and didn't immediately comment on the game? Bonus points if implosion was also a player in the game. implosion's case is

so convincing

to me at the moment that I'm considering voting you on that alone, but I also kinda don't think you're scum based on everything else, so, cheap and easy opportunity to change my mind here.

[...]
Enchant is a vibe read based on his reaction to implosion's push on him

Spoiler:

I GOT KILLED BECAUSE I PICKED BULLETPROOF WHICH WAS RIGHT CHOICE I WILL MAKE AS TOWN BECAUSE BEING IMMORTAL IS DOPE

VOTE: implosionVOTE: implosionVOTE: implosionVOTE: implosionVOTE: implosionVOTE: implosionVOTE: implosionVOTE: implosionVOTE: implosionVOTE: implosionVOTE: implosionVOTE: implosionVOTE: implosion

idk, feels like he's thinks he's being wronged.
[...]

I basically have a similar read though not based on those exact same posts

[Aisa]

VOTE: dunn

@aisa, have you played much with enchant?

Yes, several times. I'm definitely not the best Enchant reader in the world but I kiinda always get lured into thinking that maybe in the present game I know what I'm doing and can read him

PS I know you asked about woo I'm working on a post on him

[Aisa]

Aisa, andante, enchant: what do each of you think about woo?

I think I used to loosely townlean Woo based on vibes. As far as I remember, the rough read was:

- To borrow implosion's turn of phrase, I thought he had some very olive branch-y moments. For example, I was very impressed by how calm and cooperative he was when I voted him and refused to elaborate. I think this is something I struggle with as scum: I don't always find it easy to make up fake reasons for my scumreads, so I sometimes take cheap shots. I liked that he turned down the cheap opportunity to criticise me.
- I did think some of his ideas were a bit reachy: the one I remember off the top of my head was thinking that Drew was fishing for townreads on himself, which is something that I feel few scum players do. But I thought this was forgivable.
- One thing I couldn't and still can't make up my mind on was his reaction here:

Spoiler:

Can I ask you how you feel about my vote on you, GuerillaWoo?

It's awkward. Do you want me to specifically ask why you voted for me or do you want us to just simmer in it for a while?

Town!Aisa could have reasons to hop on my wagon that have nothing to do with me, and if you willfully did not interpret #332 as an invitation to clarify the vote, I'm just gonna let you take the lead.

How many votes away from elimination do you think you are?

Oh shitfuck.

Why

tho

He want from incredibly cool about my vote on him, ice in his veins, to

Oh shitfuck

. I feel like this

has

got to be telling somehow but I can't decide what it means. I did make a big deal about the vote, so, like, maybe even as a townie he felt pressured to act like my vote was a big deal? No clue.

I've recently been tempted to revise the read downwards because:

- I saw CSF's readslist. If she is town I secretly suspect she may have >rand reads and I may be interested in sheeping them. And she kinda pocketed me when she townread me.
- (Recent) I kinda think both Enchant and Andante are town, and those are two places where I was thinking there could be scum, so, where to find the scum?
- I realised my townread was contingent on forgiving some takes I disagree with. With all respect to Woo - scumhunting is hard! - if he were a more experienced player I don't think I would be very amused by his ISO. For example, I'd be significantly less forgiving about his idea that "not seeing the logic in Andante's posts" is town-indicative. Or about this post (I think the opposite of what Woo is implying is true). If he's scum here I think he's doing well, but I've seen players who are either new or returning to the site who

can

play a scum game like this right off the bat, so, yeah.

(Some of these are thoughts that have been in some corner of my mind for a while but your question has obviously made them coalesce a bit more).

This... actually seems like an alright place to be for a bit?
VOTE: GuerillaWoo

[Aisa]

I think this may be the best VC yet although for some reason I also lost it at "CALL CHILDHELPLINE" a couple VCs ago

[Aisa]

Main issue that while there provided "Evidence" that my town meta that scum meta that.

I don't have meta. Even if i did, you only provided game which proved YOUR point to condemn me. You was in games where opposite also happened yet you decided to delete them from your memories because they ruin your point.

Do you think you could link one a game where you were town, replaced in, and didn't immediately comment on the game? Bonus points if implosion was also a player in the game. implosion's case is

so convincing

to me at the moment that I'm considering voting you on that alone, but I also kinda don't think you're scum based on everything else, so, cheap and easy opportunity to change my mind here.

Am I interpreting your lack of a response as "Bruh I am a GOOD MEMER I am not stooping to the same level as you mortals in this game"? (If so entirely fair)

[Aisa]

Ugh i really feel like andante is using the claim to avoid getting pushed,she feels super scummy to me

Ugh i really feel like andante is using the claim to avoid getting pushed,she feels super scummy to me

yeah I still find Andante exceedingly scummy

Dunn reminded me that I meant to ask about this.

I think there are 1-3 PRs in this setup that are possibly worth letting live and seeing if scum will deal with them, although if I found the slot scummy enough I would definitely push it to at least claim exactly what PR it is and possibly kill it off anyway. I'm back to townleaning Andante (see implosion's read on her for reasoning) so I don't really care. Anyway.

I don't think it really matters whether she's scummy or not, if you think "PR" is a good enough reason to let her live then she just lives at least until tomorrow and that's that. I'd be curious to hear from both of you what your stance on that is; is the PR claim a good enough reason to let her live until tomorrow?

[Aisa]

if he were a more experienced player

I don't mean that he's inexperienced by the way!! I only have like x1.5 his number of posts that would be ridiculous of me to believe. But that's all the more reason go to *furrows brows* at some of his posts

[Aisa]

yeah but we can figure it out tomorrow probs

Yeah you did. I'm more interested in skitter's answer but thought I might as well throw in a question to you.

[Aisa]

In hindsight I regret not insisting on him giving me an exact _number_ in answer to "how many votes away from elimination do you think you are"

[Aisa]

If he's town, I like your interpretation but I also thought maybe he had this reaction to being at E-1?
If he's scum, I guess he could have thought anything or been trying to fake anything

[Aisa]

If I had the right frame to approach this it would be telling.

Like, it's tempting to think maybe he overreacted a bit to thinking he was on E-1? If I asked you "how many votes do you think you have on you?" you might go and count them before saying anything, and if he did he would have counted 4? So if he thought he had been hammered... why?

But you can also think of reasons he might act this way as town? Maybe he miscounted? Maybe he just assumed I had hammered him based on my wording? Etc etc

And I can't decide which side of the argument is stronger

PS I have to go now

[Aisa]

like what makes you think you can mine a deeper meaning from it

Beyond what I just said, nothing. It's just the fact that

initially

I thought what he did was scum-indicative, but on further reflection I got more confused

[Aisa]

Aisa, I have more questions for you —

(1) you’ve played with enchant before then — can you tell me why you think his reaction here to being wagoned is towny for him? How does it differ from his reaction to being wagoned when scum in your opinion?

(2) I’ve read and am digesting your Woo post, thanks for that. I’m now wondering where your head is at on dunn. You’re back to a TL on andy, do you think her case is convincing?

Not sure there's anything to gain from me answering these questions now but we can go back to them tomorrow

[Aisa]

Hello darlin'. What can I help you with today

[Aisa]

Damn
Would you like me to ask you a question or would that make it worse

[Aisa]

Keep in mind that if you choose "make it worse" at some point I may decide you don't get a choice and ask the question anyway

[Aisa]

Or I might get distracted by something shinier. Who knows. Maybe you could find out

[Aisa]

enchant is an open wolf here please take the freebie

Great! I have assigned you a question. Your question is: was there anything behind your conviction here, except implosion's case?

VOTE: Enchant

Yeet. This may be all the content I can muster today, but yeet.

I have also assigned you a question, dear. Your question is: see question above

[Aisa]

I think we need to pressure Dunn at this point.

I like this plan!
VOTE: Dunnstral

To answer Mena's question about what I think about Dunn, I have no idea what to think. I played with him once, had a conflicted read on him, and he was scum. I read some of his game in team mafia, was adamant he was town, and he was scum. I don't think I know how to read him. Atp I'm hoping someone I townread can figure out a read on him so I can sheep them. The part of Andante's case on Dunn I find most interesting is the idea that maybe his lack of activity is scum-indicative. I don't know if this is true and haven't checked.

[Aisa]

they were just the weirdest around enchant

andante behavior is explained by townreading enchant

menalque technically has an explanation as like that whole "I solved the game via these tests" thing that I still dont know what to think about

aisa sort of calls enchant wolfy but then does a bunch of weird stuff I think wolf might do in a dadv situation

What's a dadv situation?

[Aisa]

I think one thing I’m curious about,

@implosion

, is why you decided to make your case 24 hours after Enchant subbed in. Did you ever think about waiting a bit longer to see if Enchant would do something before accusing him? How certain were you that he was going to flip scum?

[Aisa]

I have read very little so far, anything particularly important someone wants to share with me before the bulk of my catchup?

Hi Meg! I’d say a lot of people had thoughts on Andante one way or the other yesterday and you’re might be interested in that in your catch up? But I don’t anything happened on day 1 that was like clearly more important than all the other things that happened

[Aisa]

So, let me come out and say this:

I think the team is exactly Andy+enchant + 1 with the +1 probably being CSF

but possibly being alianna/aisa.
[...]

I propose flipping in the exact order of

Enchant --> Andy --> CSF --> Alianna --> Aisa --> Skitt

(mostly because I think the early wagon votes are probably all town provided Enchant scum and if it's Andy+Enchant and none of the likely partners are scum it's probably someone good at scum and also skitter surviving 5 nights would be very sun imo)

I hope that my explaining what I've been doing makes sense and there's a calculated risk there because I know I also look partner-y for attempting to divert the wagon. Skitt -- this is why I asked about diverting when I did, because that was exactly what I was trying to do to see if anyone would join. If I need to die on like D4 if CSF isn't scum that's fine, but I think that provided I'm right on Enchant + Andy then the game is probably won like 80-90% of the time.

Ok, questions about this stuff.

1. Why did you scumread Andyslot? What's your read on the slot now?
2. Is there a reason you proposed flipping in this exact order? It seemed really dependent on your exact solve of Enchant + Andante + 1, which even if I agreed Enchant and Andy were likely to flip scum seemed like a lot of pre-flipping

Aisa, I have more questions for you —

(1) you’ve played with enchant before then — can you tell me why you think his reaction here to being wagoned is towny for him? How does it differ from his reaction to being wagoned when scum in your opinion?

(2) I’ve read and am digesting your Woo post, thanks for that. I’m now wondering where your head is at on dunn. You’re back to a TL on andy, do you think her case is convincing?

in exchange I'm gonna answer (1). I also had doubts about the slot and was never certain it was going to flip town. But a few things that were on my mind were:
- My pre-existing read on Drew. I also wasn't sure about this, but I townleaned Drew.
- Enchant seemed present; he kept coming in to answer questions or address stuff (even if sometimes his answer was trolling). My impression is that scum Enchant is usually a bit less motivated / posts less.
- My impression is that despite perhaps not liking being scum very much (?) scum!Enchant does at least try to advance scum wincon and help his teammates wherever possible. For example, I remember that in the last run of C9++ he was scum and getting wagoned on Day 1. His teammates asked him to fakeclaim something and he did. So I would have expected to maybe see a serious fakeclaim here if he was scum and that never came

Though I sympathise with what other people have been saying about Enchant meta, I think his alignment was ambiguous and I don't really blame people for wanting to flip there

[Aisa]

Hello to all our new friends! Goodbye old friends...

@sheep

let's talk about this post of yours:

Spoiler:

Hello darlin'. What can I help you with today

Damn
Would you like me to ask you a question or would that make it worse

Keep in mind that if you choose "make it worse" at some point I may decide you don't get a choice and ask the question anyway

enchant is an open wolf here please take the freebie

Great! I have assigned you a question. Your question is: was there anything behind your conviction here, except implosion's case?

VOTE: Enchant

Yeet. This may be all the content I can muster today, but yeet.

I have also assigned you a question, dear. Your question is: see question above

I think one thing I’m curious about,

@implosion

, is why you decided to make your case 24 hours after Enchant subbed in. Did you ever think about waiting a bit longer to see if Enchant would do something before accusing him? How certain were you that he was going to flip scum?

this is aisa coming into today clearly prepping to push the notion that the enchant wagon was scum-driven but scared to actually say it out loud like other people, which I would have believed more

Though I sympathise with what other people have been saying about Enchant meta, I think his alignment was ambiguous and I don't really blame people for wanting to flip there

this I just do not believe side-by-side with the agenda of the SoD questions

Re: post 913 -

hello what can I help you with today

- was in response to your naked vote on me and was the third post of this game day. I think the burden is on you to explain why this is in any way connected with any thinking I may have on the Enchant wagon.
Re: post 957 - if you think I have an agenda, which is to push that the Enchant wagon was scum driven, of course you're not gonna believe that sentence. Because that sentence is in literal contradiction with the idea that I'm gonna push that the Enchant wagon is scum driven. Idk, it's fine if you don't believe me, but idk the way you said "this I just do not believe with the agenda" almost makes me feel like you're trying to present it as objective fact that I have an agenda. (PS I don't know what SoD means though I have guesses based on context)

I feel like everyone I asked about their voting Enchant had a reasonable enough answer that I'm not gon a push them on that specifically, fwiw.

I'm gonna reread the game a bit over the next hour. Not, like, all of it, but some of the most recent pages.

[Aisa]

[...]

VOTE: Enchant

Yeet. This may be all the content I can muster today, but yeet.

This was the post I disliked out of all of them, so

VOTE: Alianna

Today's your lucky day, I guess.
[...]

Hello!

I've seen a few people criticising that specific Alianna post and I also didn't love it, but she was on V/LA due to illness at the time. I think it would be very sus otherwise, but here I think it's difficult to make much of that post. Also fyi later on she gives a brief explanation for the vote.

[Aisa]

I'm still rereading, but I think Andante / Meg is town, maybe I'm not interested in pushing implosion today, and everyone else is just swimming in a grey soup. I was still interested in pushing GuerillaWoo, but that's now Aureal and naive first impression is that her entrance is towny, so that's a headscratcher.

[Aisa]

So why don't you vote sheep instead of me then?

I'm currently in a rereading the game / considering what to do next crunch. I know you replied to me a couple days ago and you reply is on my radar as something I need to consider when I get there in the reread. Don't know what my conclusions are gonna be yet.

[Aisa]

Lol @ the above

The part of Andante's case on Dunn I find most interesting is the idea that maybe his lack of activity is scum-indicative. I don't know if this is true and haven't checked.

Here you go:

Spoiler:

it's hard to verify how his posting rate measures to each game without doing some fancy shit I lack the time for

I did fancy shit because why not?

Spoiler:

So, I ran all three games that you linked as well as every game that I can remember playing with Dunn through the spread sheet. Calculated Dunn's percentage of all posts made day 1 compared to how many players were in the game, then did conditional formatting to color his higher post rate games green. (because you are positing that lurk dunn = scum dunn) to then see if there is any corrolation.

The conditional formatting guessed incorrectly 4 times, got it right 1 time, and then it did not give a result on his middle of the road game.

If anything, this is wrong more then it is right, and lurk Dunn = town Dunn.

viewtopic.php?f=23&t=87781 - Chromatic Ascension, Dunn was Knight Beige
viewtopic.php?f=83&t=87638 - True Love
viewtopic.php?f=52&t=83971 - Forest Fire

some (semi-)recent samples of lurkscum Dunn
there could be others from games I didn't keep tabs on but it's hard to verify how his posting rate measures to each game without doing some fancy shit I lack the time for

-GE

I'm not lurking in the first 2 games, I'm town in the last game.

omg. If you were town in Forest fire, that would eliminate the singular correct guess based on posting habits, and it will have been wrong in every single listed game lmao

All in one place with an excel screenshot included so you can easily do your research.

I think I'm in love with that excel spreadsheet. I suppose this allays my fears about your posting patterns too

[Aisa]

@sheep

I'm somewhat questioning ceph and implo now. I don't really think csf is town

I'm still somewhat sketchy on andante's slot tbh

ehhh im on a pretty different wavelength, I think ceph+implo are the 2 who feel the game most similarly to me in a way that's probably just villa lo l

Can you explain why they felt the game most similarly to you?

---

Invis NK after she was the sixth vote on Enchant could be scum trying to get us to think this sudden haste to take out Enchant was all nice and towny?

I do not buy this fwiw - I think Invis was killed because they were widely townread. One of the benefits of killing a consensus townread is that the NK points to no-one in particular. I'd be surprised if they were "trying" to get us to think anything.

[Aisa]

Aureal i think is townie

Interested in your reasoning

[Aisa]

Spoiler:

Honestly, Ceph also gives me a gut town vibe with his entrance today, and the exact flavor of his apathy. I know pretty factually based on what I know of Ceph that this is almost certainly not proper justification for a townread and I imagine he'll say he's entirely within his scumrange so far.

I like vizzy, implo, and doctor drew so far

Amusingly I now know this is 3 for 3. I don't know if that says much about skitter's alignment though.

I guess in some way here's where my paranoia of skitter stems from. When she posted her reads list, my immediate thought was "dang, that's a pretty great reads list that I agree with on essentially everything but Andante" and it made me feel good about the state of the game as being good for town. But there's also a nagging feeling that that reads list could be constructed precisely to capitalize on the way the game was going and push exactly the wrong things for town. Like, if Andante-slot is town, then this reads list essentially sets up the first two mislims of Drew and Andante back-to-back without really being contentious because both of those are the people at the bottom of her reads list that had some broad support (maybe Andante didn't have

broad

support, idk, but I think she was clearly a viable wagon).

Essentially, while that reads list reflected how I feel about all but one player, it's a read list that could potentially have a lot of utility for scum to capitalize on popular wrong reads while also being able to like, gain some distancing cred from a potential CSF or Alianna scumbuddy who is much less likely to be a wagon in the near future. And right now I think both those people are also viably scum.

I think you are the one with the weird take. Why would you ignore day one and go after the lowest post counts instead?

Yes I was asking why I was getting voted yesterday, and in response one person said they were in full survival mode, another said they were big brain, and a third didn't respond to me and then rage quit when they didn't get their way

Yes I agree that Menalque is town. I also think Andante slot, now meg, is probably town.

I mean... "going after the lowest post counts" is in a very literal sense not ignoring day one. And also I'm not going after "the lowest post counts", I'm going after you. Ceph has a lower post count and I'm not going after him right now. As I described, I had liked your opening and it felt like you dropped off a cliff and unlike Ceph who it feels like has been always present but disconnected, you've been entirely-not-here for days at a time and it feels like there are vast swathes of the game that you never experienced. Ceph has given an aura of having a hard time getting into the game, and the automatic response to that on d1 was to give him space to do so; your entrance gave the impression that you felt engaged by the game given that you had a material read on Alianna but then you vanished into thin air.

Like, if Andante-slot is town, then this reads list essentially sets up the first two mislims of Drew and Andante back-to-back without really being contentious because both of those are the people at the bottom of her reads list that had some broad support (maybe Andante didn't have broad support, idk, but I think she was clearly a viable wagon).

But they opened today by voting Cephrir, so how are they trying to set up Andante?

First I want to emphasize: I am not saying skitter is doing this. My full read on skitter right now is "idk". I'm trying to explain why I think her play can be consistent with scum; essentially I think her reads list could come from town because I agreed with it broadly and it could come from scum because this sort of utility could come from it.

With that out of the way: 1, my point isn't about today. Scum don't need to follow through on a plan that they made in the middle of day 1 at the start of day 2. But 2, I think this question has a simple answer: Andante has been replaced overnight by someone who has yet to catch up, and claimed a PR between skitter's reads list (at least I think it was afterward, too lazy to check) and now. It'd be pretty wild for skitter to launch into today guns blazing for Andante with those factors in mind.

Yeahh ok this is someone who probably actually believes these reads. implosion can have a townread for now.

The skitt vs ceph stuff is also interesting but I need more brainpower than I have right now to understand it fully

[Aisa]

@sheep

I'm somewhat questioning ceph and implo now. I don't really think csf is town

I'm still somewhat sketchy on andante's slot tbh

ehhh im on a pretty different wavelength, I think ceph+implo are the 2 who feel the game most similarly to me in a way that's probably just villa lo l

Can you explain why they felt the game most similarly to you?

@sheep

---
I think I'm like at {Dunn, Delta, Aureal, sheep} in terms of slots I want to look at first, maybe with a chance of skitter once I reread skitt vs ceph

[Aisa]

@sheep

I'm somewhat questioning ceph and implo now. I don't really think csf is town

I'm still somewhat sketchy on andante's slot tbh

ehhh im on a pretty different wavelength, I think ceph+implo are the 2 who feel the game most similarly to me in a way that's probably just villa lo l

Can you explain why they felt the game most similarly to you?

@sheep

I dont rly understand the question here?

this is just like directly from the content of their posts, we had the same read/reasoning on enchant at the same times and same overall stance on the game / how day 1 should go

it's like a mind meld but broader. I think it makes ppl +v

OK sure
(I meant where you felt like you agreed with the two of them)

[Aisa]

Spoiler: Ceph's case on Alianna

before doing this iso my thoughts were "i don't have strong feelings about this player, but i've seen a lot of scumreads on her - so it's weird that no one is doing much about it"

I'm not willing to townlean anyone on the basis of "has reads" but I guess I won't complain about it too much.

this stuff felt slightly wolf to me at surface level.

"I won't complain about it too much" just feels like a wolf perspective in a way that I could see alianna slipping up. either about some correct townreads or wanting to get townread herself for an active start

the idea of town complaining about some page 2 reads just doesnt make sense to me, even if u disagree with the reads.

what I would expect town to do is like, evaluate implosion's alignment based on that

, which doesn't happen;

this post also assumes implosion town in a +0.05% wolf way

idk ive been back and forth on this

How am I supposed to evaluate someone's alignment off "X and Y are towny" with no reasoning? There really wasn't much to sort in the post. Even though I had a guess about the reasoning, I didn't find it AI. I just disagreed with it.

How does it do that?

i think the pink response is scum indicative. it shows an overconcern with her own self perception to even bother with - "0.05% scum" means it's not a strong point and probably can't even be explained - just let this go unless your goal is discrediting

fair I gues. Why are you still voting Doctor Drew?

Sorry, got distracted by something IRL. I just forgot to take off my RVS.

UNVOTE:

i don't think i need to explain why i think this is scummy

You know what, sure. I see what you mean.

VOTE: GuerillaWoo

looking for someone who's *actually* hiding behind others' reasoning?

Reads are approximately this. They're relative to a scale, not to each other, and I went the other way around the colour wheel because (a) it's prettier and (b) my scumleans are usually orange. You can ask about my reasoning, but the response is going to be either "idk vibes lol" or "I already talked about that one."

{

Alianna

} - I townread Alianna.
{

Andante

}
{

Aisa, Invisibility, Cat Scratch Fever

}
{

sheepsaysmeep

}
{

Doctor Drew, implosion

}
{

Dunnstral, Cephrir, Menalque, skitter30

} - the null line
{

GuerillaWoo

}

So we have a problem. One person is sus and there's 2-4 bad guys in the game.

Kind of makes me think there's scum in the quiet people.
Or my scumdar's just broken.
Still like the Woo wagon for now, just think the null tier is worth looking into.

as has been pointed out by dunnstral this shows a lack of paranoia

So we have a problem. One person is sus and there's 2-4 bad guys in the game.

If you're town your problem is that you will townread everyone for light banter and giving the bare minimum of content. You are not being skeptical enough.

Could be. I'll consider that.

i don't see any evidence of this being considered

VOTE: Enchant

Yeet. This may be all the content I can muster today, but yeet.

looking for someone who's *actually* hiding behind others' reasoning?

And seconded about the pushback on implo, forgot about that.

looking for someone who's *actually* hiding behind others' reasoning?

One of my last thoughts before signing off for the night yesterday was that this case was

completely unfair

. I came into today thinking I was going to write up some big polemic about Ceph cherry picking posts and making up non-existent issues.

One of my other thoughts was that I should ISO Alianna. I put off doing this for a bit yesterday, because I thought maybe she needed time to get into the game and then she got ill. But I've been finding this game hard. It feels like we're in a lull and a lot of people have playstyles I find hard to read with any confidence. So I thought, ok, maybe I can start again from ISOing a relatively familiar player.

And uh, yeah. Alianna's ISO

is

suspicious. One reasons I was wary of Ceph's case was that it felt as if he just quoted every single post where Alianna agrees with someone and used that to build a case. But there isn't much more to her ISO. She also answers some questions and makes some small original observations but ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ probably all fakeable.

I thought her towniest post was this one:

The votes there are all meh for different reasons.

what are these reasons?

Yours is meh because I TR you (in general, not because of the vote) and I get where you're coming from, but I also don't think you're voting scum. So it kind of averages out.
Meh, maybe yours isn't

that

meh. Your posts on Andante do contribute somewhat to the vibe I had on you.
skitter's is meh because I don't find the stuff she's scumreading to be scummy.
Menalque's is meh because I don't know why he's voting Andante other than maybe sheeping skitter.

But for this to be someone's towniest post... is probably a little concerning in its own right?

There also are a couple posts where she says nice things about my read on Drew that she didn't have to say, but if I dismiss those because I'm biased then what I am left with is... concern.

Plus, looking back there's the "I won't complain about these townreads too much" post and I like this point:

Spoiler:

I'm not willing to townlean anyone on the basis of "has reads" but I guess I won't complain about it too much.

this stuff felt slightly wolf to me at surface level.

"I won't complain about it too much" just feels like a wolf perspective in a way that I could see alianna slipping up. either about some correct townreads or wanting to get townread herself for an active start

the idea of town complaining about some page 2 reads just doesnt make sense to me, even if u disagree with the reads.

what I would expect town to do is like, evaluate implosion's alignment based on that

, which doesn't happen;

this post also assumes implosion town in a +0.05% wolf way

idk ive been back and forth on this

How am I supposed to evaluate someone's alignment off "X and Y are towny" with no reasoning? There really wasn't much to sort in the post. Even though I had a guess about the reasoning, I didn't find it AI. I just disagreed with it.

How does it do that?

ur green sorta contradicts u firmly assuming the reason was for giving reads
purple: this is basically me saying the same thing as the green part lol. a) finding it frustrating and b) not wondering "does poor logic make implo scum?" Technically assumes the reads are real + he is town

But I sorta want to drop it and my mind changed lol. ur post after this made me basically get it.
+ other takes made me think ur village

I think both these things are a bit +scum and there's not much on the +town side of things.

@Delta

- I saw you were asking about why the votes on you earlier. They're due to people's reads on Alianna (your predecessor). Here ^ is a handy place to find two people's thoughts on your slot at once!

[Aisa]

I'm not gonna vote the slot rn because:
1. Delta is catching up,
2. In the current gamestate I'm not worried about this wagon going anywhere,
3. I'd still like to dig into a few other slots a bit more, e.g. Aureal, Dunn, who I'm still conflicted on. I like having a couple different ideas in mind for who to elim and then comparing and contrasting them for a bit.

[Aisa]

^ Good question. Seconding that.

@sheep

I'm somewhat questioning ceph and implo now. I don't really think csf is town

I'm still somewhat sketchy on andante's slot tbh

ehhh im on a pretty different wavelength, I think ceph+implo are the 2 who feel the game most similarly to me in a way that's probably just villa lo l

Can you explain why they felt the game most similarly to you?

@sheep

---
I think I'm like at {Dunn, Delta, Aureal, sheep} in terms of slots I want to look at first, maybe with a chance of skitter once I reread skitt vs ceph

Aisa, what do you think about Dunn's pushback against my vote?

Looking at it more carefully now I don't think it's a great look.

Spoiler: The discussion in question

And I'm the first replacement to catch up! Yay, I win!

I feel a little better about Ceph from the skitter push on him here. Not because of all the silly "I'm so towny" stuff, but I do find some credibility in the idea that he's made his meta case on Enchant before and finds it exasperating to have to spell it out for people again.

Hmmmm. At this point I think I'm going to VOTE: Dunnstral. Still not seeing anything towny here, the only seeming to pop up to argue with people scumreading him isn't a great look, and the counter wagon on him seemingly speeding up pressure to launch Enchant could be telling.

the counter wagon on him seemingly speeding up pressure to launch Enchant could be telling.

Can you point to where this happens?

the counter wagon on him seemingly speeding up pressure to launch Enchant could be telling.

Can you point to where this happens?

CSF put a fourth vote on you with a pretty decent argument that could've actually brought your wagon into focus as a serious thing. Instead it started getting waved off by sheep in particular as a done deal that needed to happen.

Actually, Invis NK after she was the sixth vote on Enchant could be scum trying to get us to think this sudden haste to take out Enchant was all nice and towny?

On the subject of Andante, I try not to assign ai reasons to replace puts (I think a few mods do have a rule against discussing it). It's pretty clear though that she left Team Mafia because people were very pissed at her, and I don't blame her at all. Her scum teammates literally told her not to sign up to play with them again.

So why don't you vote sheep instead of me then?

So why don't you vote sheep instead of me then?

Uh, why? If sheep was trying to make sure Enchant got flipped rather than you, surely the obvious implication would be that you're likely scum partners? Is it very likely that scum goes out of the way trying to wave a town wagon onward when the growing counterwagon is also town?

At the end of the day you've arrived at voting me because someone else is playing scummy to you

At the end of the day you've arrived at voting me because someone else is playing scummy to you

At the end of the day that's a mischaracterization that makes me feel better about where my vote is.

Like even if the possible sheep association thing was absolutely the only reason I had to think you could be scum, and it's not; in a vacuum it'd be a coin flip whether to vote you or sheep to investigate the association. But it's not even a vacuum, you're getting voted already and sheep isn't so obviously it'd make more sense to vote you.

He quotes from 1050 specifically, where you explain the reasons you have for voting him. As you said, wagonomics are not the only reason you're voting him, so I agree he is being a bit reductionist by asking why you're not voting for sheep in 1064 and 1071. It's difficult to think of a town motivation for 1071 other than him forgetting you also had other reasons for the vote, so I think it's +scum overall.

In general I don't find it all that worrying in isolation, but I'm worried that I'm finding it overall impossible to tell if his scumhunting is genuine or not.

For example, implosion's reasons for townreading Dunn in my head are "he has some original takes, and also doesn't feel like he's pushing an agenda". I think I can see why he'd be tempted to townread Dunn for his positioning. For example, I quite like this post:

I like GuerillaWoo and would not want to see them go.

I think this was a fairly original take at the time, yet he just puts it out there like it's the chillest thing in the world and doesn't need any elaboration. If he's town this is self-explanatory, if he's scum there's no obvious immediate path from making the post to towncred.

However, whiteknighting townies is a thing, scum not always pushing the obvious suspects is a thing, and implosion talks almost like he has never seen the scum playstyle of "pop in a couple times a day, state a couple reads, and get out" (<3)

[Aisa]

Although I do think the Andante spiel is town-indicative

[Aisa]

Seeking a replacement for Deltabreedy.

Kill this immediately

I would have happily joined you on this venture, but the replacement happened so fast and now he is speaking so many words aaaah how am I ever going to kill this now

[Aisa]

Yes, but also there are certain regions of my brain that are not very good at remembering that, so it all remains to be seen!

[Aisa]

I’m not usually very lucid at this time of day so I’ll be back later with thoughts

Intrigued by the implosion read though

[Aisa]

What are your reads other than Dunn, Aureal?

[Aisa]

Yeah I kinda wanna hear from skitter and Mena about the sudden vote / effective vote.
This replacement remains a headache. I feel like the most principled thing to do would be to try to read fire, but realistically if I start doing that they'll probably just end up back in the nullbin with everyone else and I don't wanna let em wiggle out of it so easily
-_-

[Aisa]

So, let me come out and say this:

I think the team is exactly Andy+enchant + 1 with the +1 probably being CSF

but possibly being alianna/aisa.
[...]

I propose flipping in the exact order of

Enchant --> Andy --> CSF --> Alianna --> Aisa --> Skitt

(mostly because I think the early wagon votes are probably all town provided Enchant scum and if it's Andy+Enchant and none of the likely partners are scum it's probably someone good at scum and also skitter surviving 5 nights would be very sun imo)

I hope that my explaining what I've been doing makes sense and there's a calculated risk there because I know I also look partner-y for attempting to divert the wagon. Skitt -- this is why I asked about diverting when I did, because that was exactly what I was trying to do to see if anyone would join. If I need to die on like D4 if CSF isn't scum that's fine, but I think that provided I'm right on Enchant + Andy then the game is probably won like 80-90% of the time.

Ok, questions about this stuff.

1. Why did you scumread Andyslot? What's your read on the slot now?
2. Is there a reason you proposed flipping in this exact order? It seemed really dependent on your exact solve of Enchant + Andante + 1, which even if I agreed Enchant and Andy were likely to flip scum seemed like a lot of pre-flipping

@Mena

I also remembered I never got a response to this and, yeah, think this actually is pretty important stuff for understanding this slot

[Aisa]

So, let me come out and say this:

I think the team is exactly Andy+enchant + 1 with the +1 probably being CSF

but possibly being alianna/aisa.
[...]

I propose flipping in the exact order of

Enchant --> Andy --> CSF --> Alianna --> Aisa --> Skitt

(mostly because I think the early wagon votes are probably all town provided Enchant scum and if it's Andy+Enchant and none of the likely partners are scum it's probably someone good at scum and also skitter surviving 5 nights would be very sun imo)

I hope that my explaining what I've been doing makes sense and there's a calculated risk there because I know I also look partner-y for attempting to divert the wagon. Skitt -- this is why I asked about diverting when I did, because that was exactly what I was trying to do to see if anyone would join. If I need to die on like D4 if CSF isn't scum that's fine, but I think that provided I'm right on Enchant + Andy then the game is probably won like 80-90% of the time.

Ok, questions about this stuff.

1. Why did you scumread Andyslot? What's your read on the slot now?
2. Is there a reason you proposed flipping in this exact order? It seemed really dependent on your exact solve of Enchant + Andante + 1, which even if I agreed Enchant and Andy were likely to flip scum seemed like a lot of pre-flipping

@Mena

I also remembered I never got a response to this and, yeah, think this actually is pretty important stuff for understanding this slot

I mean, I'd also be happy to accept takes on what's currently happening in the game if that seems more pressing or useful

[Aisa]

Dunn what are ur strongest reads off the top of ur head? Can’t rly tell from a skim

Right now I am thinking

Alianna mafia, Aureal town, Implosion town,

Aisa town

I'm half surprised you TR me, given your previous comments on my slot. How come?

[Aisa]

Maybe I'm being silly, but I really really really like Egix's 1215 for town

[Aisa]

Ohooh this game is getting interesting

why's that? i felt a little hesitant about it

Ok, this is spur of the moment and there may have been a tiny little bit of hyperbole in my language, but I liked it because it seemed to be completely unapologetic about having original takes or takes that kinda run counter to the current direction of the game.
Idk, there's definitely an element of gut in the read. But I can also see reasons why a townie would have those takes

What are your reasons for feeling hesitant about it?

[Aisa]

Right. I too am probably ok with flipping fire here.

[Aisa]

Ohooh this game is getting interesting

why's that? i felt a little hesitant about it

Ok, this is spur of the moment and there may have been a tiny little bit of hyperbole in my language, but I liked it because it seemed to be completely unapologetic about having original takes or takes that kinda run counter to the current direction of the game.
Idk, there's definitely an element of gut in the read. But I can also see reasons why a townie would have those takes

What are your reasons for feeling hesitant about it?

i did get that vibe but im unfamiliar with the player and so it's hard for me to judge "unapologetically original and counter to general direction" vs "not having a towny read on the gamestate"

the last bit about "im gonna vote skitter and yeah sure i can probably back this up later" is another one of those things that is like... either totally unashamed town who says what he wants, but it is still a sort of strange thing for town to say on the face of it

im also generally hesitant of being in a position where a lot of the game suspects me and someone feels like they're reaching out and aligning their position in the game closer to mine. it isn't necessarily scummy but scum do that, and im aware that it tends to be effective, and so seeing it makes me immediately a little extra hesitant

Right
(this isn't especially related to why I'm willing to flip you)
I think most of that is understandable and stuff I'm worried about, too. I too fundamentally don't know what Egix is capable of as scum or even what kind of player he is, so I was kind of relying on a guess of his ability. I think I agree his reads are... almost eerily divorced from any sort of direction in the thread and I agree that's worrisome (I thought this earlier too but didn't want to feed you too many talking points before you explained your position).

I'm not sure what you mean by reaching out to you being an effective strategy?

[Aisa]

I'm not sure what you mean by reaching out to you being an effective strategy?

if i am in a vulnerable place (such as about to be limmed) and someone shows up and offers me a hand then i am likely to be pocketed by such things (personally but also i think it's effective in general)

i am aware that i am fairly pocketable and so i tend to be wary of it although i think it still happens

i guess if im getting limmed then it doesn't matter tho

Exactly. I don't see a real benefit to scum pocketing you at the moment, given you're very vulnerable. I don't have much experience as scum, but in my limited experience never have I thought "lemme just go and pocket this dude I'm setting up as today's mislim real quick".

I want to clarify I'm not saying Egix is definitely town here. It was one post and I think the alignment of that slot is yet to be seen. I also kinda see a specific world where if you + Egix were scum together, the behaviours of you two towards each other would make sense

[Aisa]

I'm getting somewhat alarmed by the push here by some of the same people who were pushing Enchant for easy reasons also pushing fire for a silly easy reason.

Go on

About...? The easy reason is the slot repeatedly getting replaced. Ceph and implosion in particular seemed to take issue there.

This stuff with Mena is much better from what I've seen, but I gotta get back to focus on work, no OT for me today.

I was wondering who you took issue with and what the silly easy reason is. I see 1 person who commented on the double replacement thing (cephrir) and you took that and ran with it and are trying to paint the picture that the only reason they are being voted is because of that.

^^^ I strongly endorse this by the way. fire vs Mena is flashier right now but I haven't agreed with any of Aureal's posting since like the two posts she made upon replacing in. I can write some stuff up tomorrow with more sleep in the tank

Actually lemme VOTE: Aureal real quick because rn I kinda would want to flip this slot over Dunn (although I'm also still potentially up for flipping fire)

[Aisa]

Incidentally I think “get there eventually” is a pretty dangerous notion here. All it takes is mislim today + extra kill on town tonight + 3 person scumteam and we’re in MELO tomorrow. I should probably really want to get a scum today

[Aisa]

I’m probably gonna have to get a read on skitter. Which is. Not something I’m sure I can do with any degree of accuracy

[Aisa]

I too fundamentally don't know what Egix is capable of as scum or even what kind of player he is

- Not a lot, lol

- I think I've usually been described as having a "minimalistic" playstyle, because I don't usually post all that much. You know those kinds of people who don't usually talk a lot unless it's about very specific things and then they go off on all sorts of tangents? Yeah, I think I'm one of those.

I also kinda see a specific world where if you + Egix were scum together, the behaviours of you two towards each other would make sense

Except for me voting the fire slot as soon as I was caught up, fwiw

You have such trustworthy vibes that I'm considering believing your self meta, lol
I think you voting the fire slot as soon as you were caught up is a relevant point I had forgotten about

Actually lemme VOTE: Aureal real quick because rn I kinda would want to flip this slot over Dunn (although I'm also still potentially up for flipping fire)

We are not doing this.

Oops! You vetoed me. Damn. What am I gonna write about now?

[Aisa]

UNVOTE: Aureal
Ok I seriously changed my mind

[Aisa]

Unofficial VC:

fireisredsir (4): Dunnstral, Cephrir, skitter30, Menalque
skitter30 (2): Egix96, fireisredsir
Dunnstral (1): Aureal
Aisa (1): sheepsaysmeep

Not voting (3): implosion, MegAzumarill, Aisa

[Aisa]

I'd appreciate it if you could still try to explain the feels a little bit!

[Aisa]

UNVOTE: Aureal
Ok I seriously changed my mind

what changed your mind

Scratch that. I had a temporary moment of weakness, lol. I’ll explain tomorrow, please scream at me if I don’t

[Aisa]

Ok, the promised post on Aureal

Yesterday I tried to meta her. Ignoring anything from 2007 or earlier (lol), I found one game where she was scum, but annoyingly it was multiball: viewtopic.php?t=90809
I spent some time trying to decide if this game had any differences with her towngame and if it was even a good idea to try to meta her from a multiball game and just really confused myself.

A general reflection from her ISO in that game is: I was generally impressed by her fake spew. This is obviously a lot easier for scum in multiball, but still... she seems pretty comfortable talking about several different topics. She talks about the gamestate, mech, her approach to the game, gives analysis, she jokes around... after seeing this, I wouldn't be shocked if she were able to do this as scum in a non-multiball game, too.

I think rn that's the main thing that makes me doubtful. It's like when you start reading her posts thinking that she's scum it's easy to see scumminess there.

Anyway, let's take a look at some of her ISO in this game:

Spoiler:

I'm just getting to page 30 and I'm tired so I don't know if I'll get all caught up tonight. For the moment here's where that puts me.

I'm thinking Aisa town, the weird vote reaction test on my slot doesn't make sense coming from scum. And her sudden unprompted turnabout on Andante, why would scum do that? Feels a lot like I do about Andante, lol. One moment you're like ok Andante town then just suddenly such doubt because she's so volatile. I thought Andante town for a while too (I peeked at this game a few days back when the slot was getting replaced and read her ISO) but I'm not positive, especially after the weird question about Invis and since she didn't get shot.

I feel fairly good about skitter. Her early reads did not mesh with mine well, and I recall her having a pretty opposite take on the game when I played a newbie with her before too so that kinda lines up. Plus her thought that Menalque could be Enchant's partner is the same way she was thinking regarding a similar situation there.

Menalque I was worried about for a bit since I saw nothing for quite a while, but I realized he was vla and waited to see if he became active, and he did. I hear he has a pretty anemic scum game so he's seeming fine now.

I'm watching implosion be a clear driver of the wagon on Enchant and going "scum wouldn't be

that

brazen... Right?" So I'm not like totally sold on implosion, it is kinda weird that there's apparently no counterwagoning, but probably not a Mafia slot?

Slots I'm most concerned about probably Dunnstral (all he's done is complain that Alianna's reads were against low activity slots), CSF (haven't seen much analysis or activity there), Alianna (kinda vanished but probably for non AI reasons), Cephrir (complaining about being bored and waving the Enchant wagon onward are all I really recall here). And I guess sheep falls more into the crowd that needs careful watching still because they're active but I'm just not really getting anything to townread.

When I read this line by line I'm not sure I agree with much of the reasoning.
- Re: skitter, I find that some of the hardest slots to read for me are ones that have a very different playstyle from mine. If I think someone has a similar playstyle I can fall back on "are they being reasonable?" as a way to read them. And when I read something I disagree with, my first reaction is to wonder if it's a personality difference or if they're scum. So I find it interesting that she's having a reaction of certainty. ...Where by "interesting" I mean I question if it's real.
- The reads on Mena and implosion are both kind of hedgy.

Spoiler:

Page 36. Wow. Lol.

I liked CSF's coming for Dunnstral, that was a pretty good point that it's weird to apparently randomly look at the activity overview in order to shade someone's reads.

Then when a counterwagon is actually threatening Dunn, sheep starts acting like Enchant is a done deal, don't look elsewhere, gotta do this. I do not like this.

Pretty sad that the last votes on Enchant are town though. Could consider Menalque there as I think someone suggested, but I still think he's town, even more than before. Just wrong town. That's a silly town gambit, not a scum one.

I think CSF's point about Dunnstral checking the activity overview is kinda 50/50. As fellow activity overview enjoyer, I vibe with the idea that Dunn can check the activity overview whenever he wants, please and thank you.
I'm not sure where the confidence that Menalque's gambit is a town gambit is coming from / I don't find this an obvious conclusion.

Ok I'm gonna skip a bit ahead to some of the highlights

Spoiler:

So Ceph, if the double-replacement seriously affects your attitude towards a slot, what are you going to think if Andante/Meg becomes someone else too?

Why does it matter for one slot but not the other?

Yes, but also there are certain regions of my brain that are not very good at remembering that, so it all remains to be seen!

...town post?

Why does it matter for one slot but not the other?

Not to answer in Ceph's stead but as someone who would have given the same answers to those questions so far as Ceph, it matters for one slot but not the other because I townread the Andante slot and scumread the Alianna slot. If a slot I already townread gets replaced twice my gut reaction is "oh okay sure whatever". If a slot I scumread, and then got replaced and i scumread the replacement (note: i didn't have any read on deltabreedy's posting but it didn't assuage the alianna scumread), and then that slot gets replaced again, then well my gut emotional reaction would be "fuck that, this slot is scum, I'm not putting in the effort to read a

third

person when i already scumread the first two"

With all that said, I do have that reaction toward fire a bit. I'm happy to interact with fire directly at some point as they say they want, it's probably valuable to do so regardless of the slot's alignment. Right now my feelings are that I'm still okay just limming fire unless fire becomes like super ultra obvious town (and I nullread their play

so far

more or less, though with some bias toward reading it as scum because of the slot). But I'd also be quite happy to run up Egix right now.

Why does it matter for one slot but not the other?

Because one of them did it while under heavy suspicion and the other is obviously town

What are your reads other than Dunn, Aureal?

Well, I tried to get my subconscious to answer this since I was getting in bed when you asked. But all that really came through by morning was something about Egix following people and being suspicious by covering the peephole in the door so nobody could see who was sneaking around outside.

THANKS A LOT SUBCONSCIOUS

I don't understand the hating on fire's slot. I think Alianna did one thing that comes off badly and I'm not convinced it's ai, it could well just be unfortunate. I dislike the replacements therefore scummy idea that's getting pushed. For all you know Delta might have looked at the game and went "oh shit Aureal is here, goodbye!" I'm not terribly familiar with the play of either but I don't feel like they're the type who fears being scum and ditches because of it. I'm getting somewhat alarmed by the push here by some of the same people who were pushing Enchant for easy reasons also pushing fire for a silly easy reason. I've heard this person is pretty good, what are people afraid they're going to do? I've not registered any actual arguments against what fire has done. I actually liked their debate with skitter- I didn't entirely follow but I think it was useful to know that she does actually have some idea how Andante plays. I had assumed that she didn't, it makes me a little more skeptical of her now.

Not thrilled with Egix so far either, especially that last "what you want" post, lol. But I don't think the slot can be scum with Dunn, from the way CSF pushed him.

Pedit: lots of posts since I started writing, whee

I dislike how her post here shows no acknowledgement of the explanation implosion and ceph gave. I also think people had reasons to scumread Alianna beyond that one post where she votes Enchant and she also doesn't acknowledge this. She's worried about the people who pushed Enchant, but for some reason doesn't seem all that worried about Alianna's vote. It feels like some of the people she's worried about are implosion and Ceph. I don't think implosion's push on Enchant can be called "easy"; if implo is scum here, I think he had to be lucky for making his push on Enchant even possible.

Spoiler:

I kind of see why Menalque immediately responds that way to fire's 1203 beyond just the post calling Menalque out. It feels like a very overwrought thought process. Like this assertion that Menalque must have had the whole spiel planned out from before the woo vote as town when like, part of what he was doing was asking questions.

like fire, you're saying "I don't find his reads progression believable, it doesn't seem like he genuinely had this planned since before the woo vote and all he does is ask a bunch of questions then give this big reveal" and like. yeah... the point of questions is to change your mind? I think at least part of this is me misinterpreting something but this whole post from fire just feels like either scum having a conclusion that they think they can justify and wanting to justify it, or possibly town who got a gut scumread on Menalque from reading and is now trying to back-justify why that scumread makes sense in the context of his progression without having really thought much about it before typing the words out because the read actually came from gut. And it doesn't sound like that's what fire

thinks

the read is. This probably doesn't make any sense though so alas

Nah, I think it makes sense and I think it's a fair point. I promptly called Mena's gambit towny because it felt justified by what had come before in my read, so it's a little strange for fire to have the opposite read. But I guess if everyone always thought the same way, this wouldn't even be a game people play.

I... think implosion was misunderstanding fire's point in this post, so for her to say the post makes sense feels like she hasn't fully understood fire's point at best

Ok I'm at the point where I see a lot of holes in my thinking, but I'm going to force myself to press submit on this post. Someone please talk to me about this I guess?

[Aisa]

Also like kinda want meg to confirm that her slot did indeed taks an action last night ...

Unrelated but

@Merlyn

: hello! Can you confirm or deny this? (No need to claim what action your slot took, just that it took an action)

[Aisa]

I don't think implosion's push on Enchant can be called "easy"; if implo is scum here, I think he had to be lucky for making his push on Enchant even possible.

OK I'm sorry writing long posts is hard
I meant that if implo is scum here, I think he had to get lucky for it tobe possible to make the case on Enchant that he did

[Aisa]

@Aureal

- Feel free to address any of my megapost!
- What do you think of Ceph's case on Alianna?
- Who would you kill right now if you had to, and why?

@implosion

Can you briefly explain why you scumread the Alianna / Delta slot before Delta replaced out?

[Aisa]

It's ok, I don't get myself in a substantial way either

[Aisa]

aisa im down to talk about aureal but i feel like im not really... getting your post in a substantial way

i get the individual points you're making but maybe not how they come together as a whole

was this just kinda sharing thoughts that you came across as you investigated aureal, or did you end up with some sort of conclusion?

Sharing thoughts that I came across as I investigated. You're right the post has no clear conclusion! I ended up second guessing my read for like the eleventy billionth time while I was trying to write that post, so I didn't want to end it with by saying "So here are the reasons Aureal is definitely absolutely scum"

I'm staring at the game currently (your wall on skitter among other things) and trying to figure out what to do and I think RIGHT NOW I'd rather flip you or skitter than Aureal.

I'm sorry! I am trying to not be indecisive but I don't think I've really been in control of the indecision at any point this game.

[Aisa]

Anyway. What's your read on Aureal?

[Aisa]

I don't know if I can get over Alianna's play. It's totally possible she had an off game and she was obviously sick for like half of day 1.
all those vibe reads she had no explanation for, though...

I think fire is doing ok and would probably be getting a pass from me if it weren't for Alianna. I like the case on skitter specifically; I think prior to that his discussion with Menalque was all defense he might feel compelled to do as either alignment.

[Aisa]

i can kind of relate because i don't feel like i have a very good read on the individual, more of my read came from guerillawoo

i think for me maybe it's more just feeling like the slot fits into a potential scumteam from like, a gamestate/poe perspective? which isn't super satisfying, which is part of why i was interested to see what you came up with

i think from aureal herself the thing that stood out most to me as pinging AI were the posts she made surrounding me, they just felt a little... off, i guess. some of that you touched on. it seemed more positional than being a natural train of thought

Yeah, I'm kind of at a weird point in the game where I've either got it mostly solved or I'm very badly misclearing someone, and the PoE is also doing some of the lifting behind my suspicion of Aureal.

What do you mean by gamestate perspective? I remember that post about you thinking there should be scum in the "driver's seat" of this game but it's not clear to me how this all connects to Aureal

I can empathise with Aureal's posting on you insofar as her point is "fast wagons are scary and I don't know if the sudden votes on fire are town-motivated" but the lack of acknowledgement of e.g. why Ceph scumreads your slot bugs me

[Aisa]

Spoiler:

i think skitter limiting herself to looking for scum in a group of 4 is really unlike how she engages with the game as town

it's something that i could see her doing, but i think even when she does she doesn't just push for the lim she wants, she still is open and trying to solve the game as a whole and sort what's happening around her

i don't really get the feeling that she's doing that here. her focus pool is my slot, ceph, implosion, and sheep. since she made the post laying out that group (960), here's what her posts have been about:

Spoiler: skitter pos summaries

- ceph
- sadness about replacements
- ceph
- ceph
- ceph
- ceph
- ceph
- ceph
- ceph
- ceph
- ceph
- ceph
- andante slot
- replace out rules discussion
- replace out rules discussion
- ceph (talking to implosion)
- replace out rules discussion
- would wagon alianna or ceph (talking to implosion)
- ceph and dunn (response to implosion)
- would wagon alianna or ceph
- ceph
- ceph
- her focus pool (talking to ceph)
- her focus pool
- her focus pool
- her focus pool
- her focus pool
- sheep
- her focus pool
- her focus pool (talking to implosion now!)
- aureal
- aureal (response to aisa)
- ceph and sheep (talking to mena)
- sheep (talking to mena)
- focus pool and sheep (talking to implosion)
- comment on thread state being dead
- dunn and aisa
- sheep
- meg/andante slot and alianna/delta/me slot
- meg slot
- me
- replacements
- me
- me
- me
- andante (answering my question)
- egix
- mena and me (talking to me)
- voting me
- ceph and herself (talking to egix)
- mena
- vc and meg slot
- herself (talking to me)
- mena (taking to ceph)
- herself (talking to me)
- me

ok so sure, of the 50 posts since then that are about people in the game, 36 of them are about her focus pool. there's still 14 that aren't, right?

let's look at them!

Spoiler: skitter posts

i may or may not have had thoughts abt that but we're not supposed to talk abt rep-outs now i believe so kinda glossed over that

pedit ok i like the vote for now then

eh i dont' really townread it
i'm not sure it's scummy but like i don't think his reaction is townie either

dunn - nullscum, can wagon too

Aureal i think is townie

Aureal i think is townie

Interested in your reasoning

Good vibes from her rep-in

I think dunn and aisa are most likely town

Would kinda like to hear more from meg + delta

Also like kinda want meg to confirm that her slot did indeed taks an action last night ...

It's a lot easier for me to get to the right read on her if i know her alignment, i don't think it's so easy for me to actually read her

And fair enuf

Content and involvement

from my (admittedly not that well-researched) knowledge of mena's scumgame that seems pretty in his wheelhouse

i think of his main skills as being able to vibe real-time and successfully posture/front when he wants to seem confident in a solve

it's more effort than he's put into scumgames recently but eh

Why do you think mena could/would do that as scum

Like you said right after, i think his scumgame is more abt vibing in real time and buddying people

I think he's less likely to come up with a elaborate multi-day reaction test depending on a town-slot flipping scum if he were scum

But as of right now I'm kinda feeling like:

Aisa
implo
sheep
gwoo

are my prob towns

Okay, coming back to this:

- I can't remember why I had implo that high, he should be more like at the low end of the town pile (just vibes)
- I should have included Andante here, but simply presumed she would be self-resolving due to the PR claim
- Adding Ceph to this because I think he looked townier than skitter in the interactions they had earlier this Day
- fire is townier than Alianna was. I don't wanna go as far as saying "ooh I townread this slot now!" but I did not want there to be a hammer yet.
- I kinda think that Aureal's slot is just obv town at this point, her posting is even better than GWoo's was.

So, seems like that leaves me with Dunn, Mena, or skitter as my vote.

I don't have a case ready yet but I'll

VOTE: skitter

as she's the one I have the worst vibes from atm. (I skimmed her iso earlier so I should be able to elaborate when I have more time)

I would like to hear more abt why you think ceph was townier than me in our argument + more abt why you're voting me

I'll just say that in real-time it certainly felt like mena cared abt people's answers to those questions

I think mena's response was super thorough + townie

Isnt fire at e1 now?

I want nu-andante-2 to join the game and that the slot took an action last night before ending the day

i read most of those posts. someone else can just tell me if mena's huge wall was a good post i guess, i don't plan on reading it

It was

the only ones that i think could qualify as trying to sort or probe anyone are the two directed towards egix. two are talking about mena's towniness. three are talking about how she wants to hear from meg/andante slot. the others are (extremely brief) responses to other's questions, or one line statements of reads on people

i know going through all this is kind of excessive but im bored and i wanted to see if i was right that her focus has been extremely narrow, and i think it has. this is not at all what im used to seeing from town skitter. i think one of the hallmarks of her play is the way that she's always observant and questioning things that stand out to her, checking assumptions, and pushing things forward towards a place where she can see the game more clearly and solve it. she enjoys the puzzle of solving games

here that doesn't look to me like that's her goal. she's set up a group to look at and push within, and then has barely even touched anyone outside of it ever since. her engagement whenever questioned is limited, giving one line summaries of reads and mostly keeping herself closed off

another thing that is heavily lacking here that i think is usually present in her town game is that i don't see her finding town and working with them anywhere, or even attempting to. i don't think i would expect her to spend a significant amount of her time doing that as town, but she usually has at least some

if you want a comparison point, here is a recently finished game that is playing heavily in my memory, although ive played quite a few games with skitter and i think im pretty familiar with her style: viewtopic.php?t=90886&user_select%5B%5D=29653

in that i think the difference is super clear just from a glance. she's a lot more investigative, pushing in several directions, trying to solve the whole game, and much more willing to engage when asked for explanations or reasonings behind reads. she's just a shining beacon of towniness, especially once it gets into the midgame. here it feels like she's trying to mostly keep her head down and stay in her lane, despite being one of the top posters

The things that signal to me this might be a town!fire post are:
- I like that it's a meta read and that he is able to describe how skitt's play here seems different from her towngame in some detail.
- I find the pacing and trajectory before he made this post convincing. Like, he read the game, thought of a few slots he suspected, but was undecided for a bit about who to push. And then he deconfused himself and decided to push skitter. This is probably isn't all that AI because he says he is good at keeping a consistent and cohesive mindset. But I guess that if he is scum here I can confirm that he is lol

I think I also mostly agree that skitter focusing on this pool of 4 slots is sketchy, but I also find that I actually really strongly agree with the bolded on an intuitive level:

b/c i think 0 is unlikely

...why though... am i speaking a different language or something

pedit b/c in the four billion games of mafia i've played,

i've seen a lot more day1 wagons with wolves on them than day1 wagons with no wolves on them

[Aisa]

i mean if she is scum then she's right and knows she's right

that statement being true in general theory doesn't say anything for her alignment and im not sure why it would

it's like in frenemies when datisi hardbussed his partner d1 and was like "ok guys there's always a scum on the wagon let's find them"

Last line made me laugh

Yeah, good point. I was trying to read for genuine motivation behind the pool of 4 slots gimmick and that statement rang so true when I read it that I thought maybe she just really, really believed it

But yeah I guess there's nothing stopping it from it just being the excuse she came up with as scum

my point wasn't that she shouldn't be looking for a scum there. i think thats valid and i think it's something she could do as town

my point was that she wasn't looking anywhere else

Yes, I think I'm fine with this

[Aisa]

my point wasn't that she shouldn't be looking for a scum there. i think thats valid and i think it's something she could do as town

my point was that she wasn't looking anywhere else

I think this point about her *not doing* things that you expect her to do is harder for me to assess, unless I literally go and read the whole game you linked. There are a lot of things I am not doing that I could be doing at any particular time, so for all I know you could just be holding her to an unreasonable standard. Maybe there's someone else in the game who's more familiar with skitter who can comment on this?

[Aisa]

@fire

, can you tell me why you decided to push Menalque as one of your first actions in the game?

what about the slot is scummy

and why do you think my mena push is more likely to come from me as scum

a lot of alianna's takes were questionable at best. she's very obvious of being town when she's town and contributing, here her thoughts felt a lot more forced

i'm also nto sure she would have replaced as town

, and the fact that the slot went thru two replacements is questionable to me

for mena: i feel like you tried p hard to read his posts in not good faith. more importantly, i feel like when you realized you couldn't make it stick, you backed down: you didn't 'have conviction in what you were posting, and i found that scummy

Re: bolded, I agree the fact Alianna seeming a bit disengaged in general is concerning, but a look at her wiki page reveals she's replaced out of games a couple times as town, so I don't think reading into the replace out specifically is a good idea.

More thoughts later.

[Aisa]

I can't remember who it was who said they were suspicious of Andanteslot because she didn't die overnight. I wanted to point out that there may be a simple explanation for that, which is that in a majority of rolls of this setup, scum has a roleblocker. (I'm also like, not completely ruling out that scum could have left the slot alive even without an RB for the wifom, although I think it is much less likely.)

Also in hindsight the "did your slot take an action yes/no" was counterproductive and we should just have asked Merlyn to confirm she was a PR. I haven't thought about this very hard, but I buy her entrance in the game so far as town who's naturally protective of their PR status.

[Aisa]

@fire

, can you tell me why you decided to push Menalque as one of your first actions in the game?

in 1186, i had seen in the prior post that ceph had him as top town and i was surprised by that so i wanted to talk to him about it, since i leaned town on ceph and it was a significant place where our reads differed

post 1188 was continuing that a bit

post 1203 was responding to skitter when she asked about it, which was again just me explaining why i wasn't sold on him being cleared for it and why i thought it could come from him as scum

thats about all my thought process was at the time, it was just responding to stuff, i didn't make an active choice to push mena. i think at the time i finished my catchup my plan for the next day as far as active posting was to talk about my issues with implosion, but then i kinda ended up feeling them less strongly as time went on, so i never ended up doing it. im not really sure i scumread implosion anymore fwiw

but then when mena started responding to me i did make an active choice to push him a little bit bc i know that while he is good at realtiming and faking emotional responses as scum, there's a level of "ok im gonna prove myself right now" that can happen as town that i don't think he would pull out as scum there, and so it could be useful to see if it does, even if i don't really enjoy the experience lol

Cool thanks
That was roughly my interpretation of your thought process if you were town, but I didn't want to impose my interpretation in case it was wrong.

The things that signal to me this might be a town!fire post are:
- I like that it's a meta read and that he is able to describe how skitt's play here seems different from her towngame in some detail.
- I find the pacing and trajectory before he made this post convincing. Like, he read the game, thought of a few slots he suspected, but was undecided for a bit about who to push. And then he deconfused himself and decided to push skitter. This is probably isn't all that AI because he says he is good at keeping a consistent and cohesive mindset. But I guess that if he is scum here I can confirm that he is lol

- idk why this is town-indicative, he should be able to explain how he views my game generally as either alignment? and if he's scum and wants to push me he's more incentivized to do that?
- well, i think that he had to back down from his mena push when mena pushed back and had to find somewhere else to push so like i don't really find this as townie as you do. it looks to me like he just needed to find a new push

- I find that the reads I am most convinced of are often meta reads, so I liked that meta seemed to be behind his convinction that you were scum. If he is scum here he could also have chosen to push you on anything else. For example, he could have just pushed you for your position in the game, without referring to meta as explicitly. I think that would have been an easier route? Or I would find it easier in his position? As for being able to explain how he views your game in general, I'm sure he can do that as either alignment, but for that to translate into a workable push on you he would need to get lucky that you're not playing to your usual meta. Or he's just lying about how he views your game.
- Ok, I accept that he probably needed to find a new push as either alignment.

PS: moving may be my least favourite activity in the whole world, so I hope that goes well.

[Aisa]

Sounds like you're gonna *love* the wall I'm working on, Mena

[Aisa]

Scummy slot + i don't like your mena push like at all

what about the slot is scummy

and why do you think my mena push is more likely to come from me as scum

a lot of alianna's takes were questionable at best. she's very obvious of being town when she's town and contributing, here her thoughts felt a lot more forced
i'm also nto sure she would have replaced as town, and the fact that the slot went thru two replacements is questionable to me

for mena: i feel like you tried p hard to read his posts in not good faith. more importantly, i feel like when you realized you couldn't make it stick, you backed down: you didn't 'have conviction in what you were posting, and i found that scummy

I'm dubious skitter actually thinks this about fire pushing Mena. I'm not sure why fire not having conviction in what he was saying is scummy; of course I'm biased because I'm the queen of hedge, but, like townies can change their minds and I'm not sure why fire changing his mind in the way he did is considered scummy. I also disagree about him trying to not read Mena's posts in good faith. A lot of fire's posting on Mena seems like a direct result of

being asked about the read

, it's not like he's was going that much out of his way to cast shade on Mena.

Here's like a post-by-post discussion

Spoiler: fire's initial thoughts on Mena

here i'll just make a list off the top of my head. maybe i should iso myself later to remember what my opinions are, ive honestly just been waiting for your slot to die

{menalque, mega (where are you tho?)}
{dunnstral, sheep (i think? i forget), implosion}
{egix, aureal}
{skitter, aisa}
{fire}


i am so checked out of this game that i started isoing the enchant slot to remember what my read on it is. wow

does the confidence on mena come from his worldbuilding thing he did or is there more to it

i wasn't really that impressed by it but i dunno

from my (admittedly not that well-researched) knowledge of mena's scumgame that seems pretty in his wheelhouse

i think of his main skills as being able to vibe real-time and successfully posture/front when he wants to seem confident in a solve

it's more effort than he's put into scumgames recently but eh

good to know. i haven't seen it much

my biggest issue rn is that the 3 people im most interested in are also people that i think are easier to solve with a "wait and see" approach

thats why i was thinking i was probably gonna vote dunn until i got to his post about andante, and now i think he's probably town

so im not sure what to do

Prior to this interaction, fire mentions scumreading Mena but doesn't really case him. I remember having the exact same reaction of "why is Mena that high" to Ceph's readslist. I think fire's behaviour here is all consistent with a genuine attempt to understand Ceph + Mena and I don't feel like he's going out of his way to discredit Mena.

Spoiler: skitt asks about the read

from my (admittedly not that well-researched) knowledge of mena's scumgame that seems pretty in his wheelhouse

i think of his main skills as being able to vibe real-time and successfully posture/front when he wants to seem confident in a solve

it's more effort than he's put into scumgames recently but eh

Why do you think mena could/would do that as scum

Like you said right after, i think his scumgame is more abt vibing in real time and buddying people

I think he's less likely to come up with a elaborate multi-day reaction test depending on a town-slot flipping scum if he were scum

from my (admittedly not that well-researched) knowledge of mena's scumgame that seems pretty in his wheelhouse

i think of his main skills as being able to vibe real-time and successfully posture/front when he wants to seem confident in a solve

it's more effort than he's put into scumgames recently but eh

Why do you think mena could/would do that as scum

Like you said right after, i think his scumgame is more abt vibing in real time and buddying people

I think he's less likely to come up with a elaborate multi-day reaction test depending on a town-slot flipping scum if he were scum

because when you look at the actual posts he made most of them were just asking people busy work questions or general theory and not actually doing anything that i think would be difficult to fake

i don't think his progression to get to the point of having the game solved is particularly believable either

i dunno maybe it was due to reading it all at once but it felt a little too on the nose and telegraphed. in 570 he's talking all about how its better to wagon other people than enchant to look for reactions better

then like his next posts are 623 and 625 which look way more to me like someone who just got a fun idea of a gimmick they can pull than someone who has been genuinely planning this since prior to the woo vote

and then he asks people a bunch of questions. and then wowwww he does his big reveal where he says he's being doing that thing which he earlier said would be the towny thing to do

idk im not saying it's a scummy thing to do, i just don't think it's clearing. its like slightly +town but i think his posting overall feels too constructed and i don't see places where i can actually see his thoughts developing and changing. it feels more like he has picked positions to have at certain points and then is doing a pretty good job at working within that framework, rather than those positions developing naturally

Then skitt literally asks about him the read, which is what prompts the elaboration on the slot.

Spoiler: fire talks more

I kind of see why Menalque immediately responds that way to fire's 1203 beyond just the post calling Menalque out. It feels like a very overwrought thought process. Like this assertion that Menalque must have had the whole spiel planned out from before the woo vote as town when like, part of what he was doing was asking questions.

like fire, you're saying "I don't find his reads progression believable, it doesn't seem like he genuinely had this planned since before the woo vote and all he does is ask a bunch of questions then give this big reveal" and like. yeah... the point of questions is to change your mind? I think at least part of this is me misinterpreting something but this whole post from fire just feels like either scum having a conclusion that they think they can justify and wanting to justify it, or possibly town who got a gut scumread on Menalque from reading and is now trying to back-justify why that scumread makes sense in the context of his progression without having really thought much about it before typing the words out because the read actually came from gut. And it doesn't sound like that's what fire

thinks

the read is. This probably doesn't make any sense though so alas

i think you're misinterpreting yeah

mena is the one claiming that he had it all planned out and that everything was a reaction test going back to the woo vote (see 889). im saying that doesn't feel right based on his posting, and i don't see the progression to where he got to the point he claims he did

i don't think the questions he asked actually led him anywhere nor do i see places where they changed his perspective, and the way he went about asking them felt performative for the sake of looking like he was investigating stuff

you're right that some of the read is gut, my post wasn't meant to be a mena case or anything it was just me explaining why i'm not very impressed by the thing that people seem to be clearing him off of, and why i think it's plausibly something he could do and may choose to do as scum

incidentally, the whole reason why this sold me on fire scum is not even that I don't believe his read on me (although I don't) but mostly the fact that this entire post is simultaneously trying to imply I'm scummy while making the explicit claim that it's not scummy but it's not clearing

the bolded is the most relevant bit because the "wowwww" part is heavily suggesting I'm scum, he's saying the overall thing is town but that I... wouldn't construct posts as town? but it's still lightly +town for me

it just makes no fucking sense

i don't think that anything i said contradicted myself, what doesn't make sense?

i was just recognizing the fact that you are less likely to want to put that kind of effort in as scum. i think its possible you would, but can understand the point that it is kind of a lot to cook up, so as a whole taking that action is lightly +town, but i think it doesn't make sense to treat it as clearing bc i have issues with how you went about it

the trajectory of it still makes me roll my eyes tho which is what the wowww is saying. that part i don't even think is scummy though, the part thats scummy to me is not being able to track the progression that you claimed to have had

i don't get how "you're treating this as clearing. it's scummier than that, and here's why i think so, but it's still lightly town" doesn't make sense to you

Then he addresses stuff other people have said about him. I think implosion misinterpreted what he said, it would have been an odd choice to not correct the misunderstanding. That post in response to Mena I can maybe understand scumreading but I feel like we're still well within the realm of like, plausible town behaviour

Spoiler:

i am 100% trying to undermine the perception of you as town because i don't think the actions you've taken are as clearing as people are treating them as and i think it's dangerous to write you off as town for them

i mean yeah im currently landing on the side of you being scum

i agree the convo is pointless bc i know you'd omgus as town too so it's not particularly helpful for me sorting you

i know you'll say this doesn't make sense bc thinking a scumread has done something towny is crazy

but i do kinda think that it feels closer to a town omgus than a scum omgus for the most part

i am aware you're more than capable of faking that energy though so eh thats why i don't want to attempt to sort on that

ill read that more in detail later but i don't think there's any reason that scum mena would feel threatened enough by me to feel like it was necessary to pull that out, even if i think he would be capable of it if sufficiently motivated

he just wouldn't need to

Finally he talks to Mena a bit more, explains his approach then backs down from the read.

[Aisa]

Sounds like you're gonna *love* the wall I'm working on, Mena

If ur town can you please just vote fire and we can talk about skitter tomorrow

Look who else is on her wagon vs who is backing the fire wagon

I'm sorry, but I think I'm leaning more towards the counterwagon!

VOTE: skitter E-2

Re people on the fire wagon, when I consider their reasons for voting fire I find myself unconvinced I should be sheeping them. Here's what two of the people on that wagon are saying anyway:

I liked Mena and Aisa's wall posts.

Fireisredsir is being very reasonable but I'm not sure if that makes them town. But I my reasons to scumread their slot weren't that strong in the first place either.

I was townreading GuerillaWoo while they were here.

I am coming around to liking skitter as well.

Ouch

I'm here I'm following I kind of think skitter could be scum but I'm not fully convinced fire isn't

Game is dense and hard to care about again

That doesn't seem like a lot of convinction

[Aisa]

I love it when implosion posts because he often hits points I’ve also been thinking about. I’ve just read his posts
and cool
look like I don’t need to talk about skitter’s Andante read, why fire is hard to scumread, or Mena’s reasons for scum reading fire anymore because implosion has done all that work for me

[Aisa]

I think fire's points about skitter, on the whole, feel cogent to me. I don't think skitter has given a good response to 1425. I understand that she's busy with moving but the defeatism in 1438 just doesn't sit that right with me. I feel like the instinct should be to solidify around the red wagon, or try to convince Aisa why she's wrong given that skitter agreed that Aisa is town. Partially I just think like, if I were town and someone made post 1425 at me it would really get under my skin and I would be pretty indignant about that.

I think skitter’s “defeatism” comes after pretty extensive discussions with fire (which should double as a scum case of fire + defense of herself) and after engaging with me when I was looking undecided. I think it’s completely believable that’s a reaction from town who doesn’t think there’s anything more they can do.

This game is so hard D:

[Aisa]

Rn I think I want skitter, fire, or Dunn and feel like Aureal or sheep are inferior choices

[Aisa]

One advantage of flipping in {fire, skitter} is that we will definitely resolve one of them, lol. I worry that if we flip someone else we’ll just end up having collective paranoia over those two slots again tomorrow.

[Aisa]

Dunn I have an easy time justifying a scumread on to myself. Maybe the Andante spiel is +town, but it's just one action and I feel like the rest of his ISO comes down to vibes, and I don't even have a history of being very successful reading him on vibes.

I've thought about Aureal and rn I want to townread her for feeling similar to the one previous time I played with her, where she was town. I don't think there are actually any glaring ways she feels different from that game. I think her posting style should be quite demanding to reproduce as scum; it's quite dense. Good on her if she can mimic it so well on her first time rolling non-multiball scum, but I've decided I'm ok with townreading her for now.

If you want an example of what I mean about Aureal's posting style, see this post. She gives a lot of arguments pro / con the various slots.

P-edit: I'm trying to keep myself from writing long posts lol
this is one reason why I think another day of fire vs skitter would not be great, even though I don't mind the long posts personally. I'm aware a lot of people have complained about this recently.

[Aisa]

why dunn over aureal?

I was referring to this btw

[Aisa]

Wait
22 hours to deadline? I knew it was close but I thought it was more like 48
Well then, I guess we won't have the problem of everyone being indecisive for too long.

[Aisa]

V/LA 15th to 18th

I'll be completely absent in that period. If anyone has any questions for me ask in the next ~12 hours and I'll address them before I go.

[Aisa]

Looks like Ceph's gonna be V/LA too, that's one third of the game dead on arrival lol

[Aisa]

holy fuck merlyn didnt get a peek off

I always thought she confirmed that she DID do an action

Dude

[Aisa]

I really wanna make a kill this with fire pun

[Aisa]

Y'know yesterday I wondered if you were trying to get me to scumread Aureal
Or exploiting the fact I was uncertain on that slot I cannot remember which

[Aisa]

Shall we just all take a vacation for 5 days?

[Aisa]

I feel that. If fire is not scum we're screwed in ways that are difficult to salvage (maybe salvageable but out of reach of what I can accomplish before dropping off the face of the earth in 6 hours). Even if he's scum I think Who Are The Partners is an interesting question

[Aisa]

But also his entrance to the day does feel consistent with scum who's about to die to me
I stand by Aureal being town which makes me wonder what he's doing pushing her this way but trying to not overthink it

[Aisa]

if im scum then we are in a pretty good position and if i live that's a bonus

if im town (i am!) then our position sucks and we probably lose and there's nothing i can probably say that makes me live and im not even sure if i should anyway and i am not confident in any solve

so idk how my entrance is consistent with scum

If you’re scum I agree and I think the incentives point pretty reliably towards acting as you are now. Risky to effort today when that will spew the alignment of half the game.

If you’re town I think there was a chance you would have reacted differently, advocating for your reads more strongly than you are now (eg see skitter).

Also, didn’t you say you were pretty sure Aureal was scum?

[Aisa]

implosion being softly down to "Just Lim fire" is like 0.01% weird to me meh

like I get it but switched sides a bit easily

How do you think he “should have” reacted and what side do you think he switched from?

[Aisa]

why would i be advocating for my reads when

a) me pushing more strongly than i usually do for a read was wrong and is how we got in this situation

b) nobody is going to (or should!) listen to me anyway

a) I can see why town might feel like this, but overall your particular brand of not advocating for your reads feels a bit more like scum defensiveness and “waiting to die”. (Sorry if I’m missing something) I feel like you’re not proposing any plan other than “why don’t you leave me alive a bit longer and see how you feel later?” which to me tends to come from scum.

b) If you’re town it’s up to you how much effort to put it and if you think this game is already lost I don’t blame you
If you’re town, however, we’re really gonna need your help to see it and I think I scumread your particular kind of defensiveness, so some takes *might* help me get closer to thinking you’re town.

Are you pretty sure that Aureal is scum, yes or no?

aisa wouldnt it make sense for town!fire to be less confident after skitter flipping villager

See above

[Aisa]

So you don’t wait for a reply from me in vain, fire:
I’m gonna take a nap now and come back later

Still not sure about the strength of your read on Aureal

[Aisa]

Now that’s a hot take

[Aisa]

idk what was confusing about the strength of my read on aureal i thought ive been pretty clear on that

im just not gonna come in here being like "guys you know how yesterday everyone wanted to kill me and i showed up like, hey please don't kill me i really think skitter is scum? and i was wrong? well HEAR ME OUT"

I guess this makes some sense
Something still feels wrong but I can’t articulate it rn

[Aisa]

So why don't you vote sheep instead of me then?

Uh, why? If sheep was trying to make sure Enchant got flipped rather than you, surely the obvious implication would be that you're likely scum partners? Is it very likely that scum goes out of the way trying to wave a town wagon onward when the growing counterwagon is also town?

Lol @ the above

@Aisa why didn't you believe Aureal's theory here?

Hello! Gonna be catching up fully in a few hours but this is a simple question so:
I was not referring to Aureal’s post but the post above it:

That was meant to be at Aureal actually

[Aisa]

So why don't you vote sheep instead of me then?

Uh, why? If sheep was trying to make sure Enchant got flipped rather than you, surely the obvious implication would be that you're likely scum partners? Is it very likely that scum goes out of the way trying to wave a town wagon onward when the growing counterwagon is also town?

Lol @ the above

@Aisa why didn't you believe Aureal's theory here?

Uh, I'm pretty sure that lol is because she misinterpreted who a question was directed at and answered it herself. I don't think she was laughing at me.

I hope she wasn't laughing at me.

Aww - I wasn’t ^^

[Aisa]

It looks like no one is opposed to massclaim so let’s massclaim
How do we figure out who starts

[Aisa]

It looks like no one is opposed to massclaim so let’s massclaim
How do we figure out who starts

Er well I was opposed, but I guess I'm outvoted.

Most sussed people claim first?

Ahh my bad, though I do guess you’re outvoted anyway

[Aisa]

Ok people can do what they want with massclaim then. My position is

I'm sort of neutral on whether we do it today all things considered

so whoever is not neutral can fight it out

[Aisa]

Aureal let's talk about Ceph, I'm pretty sure he's town

[Aisa]

Honestly I don't really know if we need a massclaim right now or not, this gamestate just feels so agonizingly hard to do anything in and massclaim feels like a bandaid to fix that.

I think massclaim is a good try for the thing that makes it easier to do things here

Gosh, this is true, I really should not be in charge of making decisions

I've realised I actually need rest irl and if I tried to produce something in this game right now it would not be productive so I will come back with a fresh mind tomorrow

[Aisa]

Really made sure the day ended there by parking on fire for most of the day and then mind controlling merlyn

VOTE: aureal

You were parked on fire for most of the day? This all started because fire said you were "the one to actually take action and start campaigning for alternate wagons" remember? That doesn't seem to match up well with your description of your day. Why are you not seeming to take issue with the inaccurate way fire describes your action but nitpicking mine, other than obvious reason that fire's inaccuracy makes you look better?

fire's original wording was

person a) [Cephrir] was a part of tvt wagons and then actively worked to try to move away from them and dismantle the locked position towards the rest of the game

which is compatible with what Ceph was doing (pushing skitter, then parked on fire, then asked about starting a 3rd wagon, then decided to sheep Merlyn which resulted in him voting skitter)

[Aisa]

[...]

Really made sure the day ended there by parking on fire for most of the day and then mind controlling merlyn

VOTE: aureal

You were parked on fire for most of the day? This all started because fire said you were "the one to actually take action and start campaigning for alternate wagons" remember? That doesn't seem to match up well with your description of your day. Why are you not seeming to take issue with the inaccurate way fire describes your action but nitpicking mine, other than obvious reason that fire's inaccuracy makes you look better?

fire's original wording was

person a) [Cephrir] was a part of tvt wagons and then actively worked to try to move away from them and dismantle the locked position towards the rest of the game

which is compatible with what Ceph was doing (pushing skitter, then parked on fire, then asked about starting a 3rd wagon, then decided to sheep Merlyn which resulted in him voting skitter)

I don't really see how that's compatible, but if you do I'll let it go. Saying "hey Merlyn what do you think about starting new wagons on one of these people" without even so much as moving off a main wagon yourself seems pretty

in

active and

not

working to me.

As far as massclaim, I've rather come around to the 'just lim fire' position. I really dislike how fire just vanished once I started pushing back at him, and has only decided to talk about implosion (a consensus townread) since then. It feels like scum realizing they could end up making me look too unpartnered if they keep engaging with me.

VOTE: fireisredsir

It's not about Cephrir sheeping Merlyn (which I agree can't be considered "actively" campaigning for a different wagon), but about this post:

Spoiler:

ok so aureal's two latest ISO dives on sheep and skitter both left me kinda... unsatisfied. they're both just i think way too much summary for my taste, and not enough analysis of what that means for the alignment, or sort of grasping onto overall meanings or motivations beyond just "i like this" and "i don't like this". with both i was kind of left thinking, whats your point?

but, i figured, ive never played with aureal before tho so maybe this is just her style. so i went and looked through a bunch of aureal isos from previous town games to see if this is just how she tries to sort people later in the game

and i really don't think it is

most games didn't have anything like this. the analysis was a lot more clear, most of her time was spent engaging with people and picking at specific points and explaining why she had a specific read on them, etc

there were a couple ISO dives that were explicitly summaries of interactions, but rarely were they done as like, a way to make content

the closest thing i found (across like 8 games) was this post:

Spoiler: from another game

Subject: Micro 1073: Purgatory - Game Over!

A few thoughts from some browsing of AV's ISO.

Pretty sure AV is NOT scum with Ranger because of 239 and is probably just town (the opening about Aisa reads pretty towny, are scum going to talk about how they want to read someone, doesn't seem so likely). I just can't see any reason why scum would make an argument directed to their scumbuddy only to have the scumbuddy misintepret it, forcing the original questioner to have to clarify and ask again. Ranger does not look as good for the misinterpretation, though. The original question in 181 and called out to Ranger again in 209 seems pretty clear and yet Ranger somehow digs up 45 and uses it in her response which clearly is not what AV is talking about- he literally quotes the 'freaking out' in 181; and if Ranger only saw 209's question it says Arko putting Oc at e-2 was "earlier in the thread" than the freaking out and 45 clearly is not earlier than the vote in 54.

It's also seeming less likely from this that Oc/Enchant is scum with Arko/Drew, as Oc was the one who triggered Arko's e-2 shenanigans. I could see this sequence as Arko starting to break down under early pressure, then coming back the next day to see feedback in the scum PT that his OMGUS stuff was bad and he unvotes.

I'm thinking Bella is town, though I haven't dug deeper on her yet. Vander/Ranger/Arko makes sense as a team to me. Arko gets pressured early but also seems to have decent support so Ranger defends in over-the-top fashion, trying to get Vander towncred for a heaven vote by bussing Ranger and then hopefully people think Ranger was white-knighting townArko so he has a heaven shot later? The heaven voting is maybe a little weird if so but I think makes enough sense... Drew puts Vander at h-1 and Ranger doesn't hammer, but that could be because obviously Ranger shouldn't want Vander there and maybe Ranger's slot is salvageable once we see Vander was scum, but not if Ranger hammers. It seemed reasonable to wait and figure Bella or I would be amenable to voting Vander. But AV switches to Aisa, Drew votes Aisa to see if that'll get AV back, Ranger obviously can't do anything but vote Aisa, then Bella brings out her Aisa read and Enchant loves hammers.

I'm moving towards voting Ranger but we've got time and she's got stuff to deal with. And I'll keep doing more poking around.

but even this i think has a ton more analysis to it than the two we've seen this game. it references specific posts to make the points, but it's explaining an overall narrative and overall conclusions

i kinda think that stuff like aureal has done here comes when scum aren't really sure how to produce meaningful content and so they just pull up an iso and start summarizing what they see, because it looks long and has lots of links and people think "oh they efforted they're probably town"

maybe i missed a time when this was done? aureal if you have any in mind feel free to point me to them

Also i actually think sheep looks worse here than fire

what if we killed sheep or aureal instead UNVOTE:

I think a lot of why fire is looking town is because he’s just been active since joining and I think that’s a very bad metric for solving him

I don’t think he’s done anything really clearing and I think that his entrance was concerning enough to be killable + somehow everyone is forgetting that neither delta nor alianna did a good job of showing the slot was town

cephrirage farm remembers

I guess it's not a lot, but Ceph is not a very high volume poster and you're rarely gonna see him screaming and yelling for a specific course of action. When I first saw the post I remember it made an impression because I was also panicking about who to eliminate.

More in general why do you think Ceph not taking issue with fire's description of his actions is a problem? I wouldn't expect most players to go out of their way to correct townreads on them most of the time.

More in next post!

[Aisa]

Aisa, what's your reasoning on ceph-town? I still do think he's town but still feel the need to second-guess on him.

Aureal let's talk about Ceph, I'm pretty sure he's town

Sure. Why's he town? I've not had him as better than null and these conversations with him have him coming off very oddly nitpicky.

Mainly meta: to me he feels different from this scumgame of his. He initially fooled me, but looking back on the completed game I feel like I can trace a lot of his posts to a fairly simple agenda. He kinda tries to project this confidence in his ideas / scumreads and appears quick to reach conclusions like "this doesn't make sense". He's quite direct about pushing the slots he wants to eliminate. He talks more about others than about himself, and when he talks about his own thought process, he keeps it simple and short.

He feels different here. I've had this feeling for a while but here are a few recent examples:

Spoiler:

after reviewing a recent csf scum game to see if my paradigm for reading her is still valid, it wasn't as valid as i thought, but i still see differences between that and this. still townreading, not as strong

want to look at sheep/woo/dunn/aisa eventually

not interested in menalque

skimmed sheep iso to figure out why i was townreading him earlier. still not sure

i liked his one post about aisa and the fact he's not shoving me in a null bin or worse (i have to imagine scum salivating over mislimming me later here)

that's it tho

Here is a dump of some posts where he shows some of his thought process. He seems a bit hedgier than in the previous game I linked?

Spoiler:

You didn't start the day off by calling skitter scum for voting you and suddenly pop in to end the day hammering her?

This isn't what your post says, and no I did not suddenly pop in I made it perfectly clear I was letting merlyn use my vote.

Who was pushing skitter before you?

And there's nothing "perfectly clear" about why you hammered. It felt pretty out of the blue to me at the time, and going back and reading your posts there still doesn't much change that impression. You didn't commit to anything with your vote, you halfheartedly pondered voting with Merlyn in a way that wouldn't raise objections if you didn't do so. Like you possibly could if she'd voted where you didn't want to vote.

There is a difference between "started the push on skitter" and "was the first person pushing skitter"

No one cares about my skitter push and it was fully irrelevant by the time a second completely unrelated push occurred

You can call things halfhearted with no citation if you want I guess

@merlyn thoughts on switching to sheep or aureal? i might just vote whatever you want right now bc i think you're town and i am so checked out

Huge skitter pusher cephrir, everyone

Really made sure the day ended there by parking on fire for most of the day and then mind controlling merlyn

VOTE: aureal

He has a simple self-assurance here that seems unlikely to be forced to me. I also like that he's been able to explain his trajectory yesterday more generally; this makes me feel like there is actual depth to his reads. I can follow his thought process.

Spoiler:

The fact that there is absolutely no impetus toward limming fire today after what happened yesterday makes me want to revise my stance and agree with skitter/menalque that there is some weird unnatural resistance to limming fire right now. fire is the natural lim; there's been like semi-consensus on fire's slot being scum like twice and nothing happened either time + skitter as she was dying kept saying we need to look at fire (she also said she thought sheep looked even worse than fire but still).

Like dunn/ceph, why are you not voting fire now given you were on the wagon yesterday and it's the leading wagon here? Has something meaningfully changed?

Yeah I think yesterday was bait and scum are watching us burn

Also if fire is scum we're going to lim me next so I'm just kind of hoping he isn't

I hadn't verbalized that until after your own post. I still would like to know why you thought so in 1707.

Because I think I look like his partner

I like the fact he considers both the fire town and fire scum cases; this tells me he's not directly setting up a specific narrative. You could argue that he's fire's partner doing some strange reverse psychology gambit to hopefully make him look unpartnered when fire flips, but... this feels a bit gimmicky?

Somebody please scream at me if I'm fundamentally misinterpreting Ceph's meta and he can in fact do all these things as scum

[Aisa]

The fact that there is absolutely no impetus toward limming fire today after what happened yesterday makes me want to revise my stance and agree with skitter/menalque that there is some weird unnatural resistance to limming fire right now. fire is the natural lim; there's been like semi-consensus on fire's slot being scum like twice and nothing happened either time + skitter as she was dying kept saying we need to look at fire (she also said she thought sheep looked even worse than fire but still).

Like dunn/ceph, why are you not voting fire now given you were on the wagon yesterday and it's the leading wagon here? Has something meaningfully changed?

When I first saw this post I was going to scream bloody murder at this interpretation of the gamestate but I actually don't hate the two people this question is applied to

[Aisa]

Something feels weird about Aureal vs Cephrir, from a skim exactly 0 players who are not called Aureal or Cephrir seem to have used it as a reason to scumread either Aureal or Cephrir and I wonder why that is.

[Aisa]

Uughhhh *gestures at everything* this game

[Aisa]

I looked at CSF’s ISO again and hmmm that does *not* feel like a scumslot rn

[Aisa]

Mmmm my brain is a dolphin doing all sorts of backflips rn.
What if it’s exactly Ceph + Dunn + fire? Someone please reassure me I’m not crazy and I’ve definitely got the game completely solved :3

[Aisa]

Someone please reassure me I’m not crazy and I’ve definitely got the game completely solved :3

Someone? Anyone. Cmon. How is this not an attractive proposition?

I think for a while I was at
{implosion, Cephrir, Aureal}
{Menalque, sheep, Egix, fireisredsir, Dunn}

but Egixslot is actually definitely a townslot at least until I change my mind again and it's a stronger read than Ceph. If I swap those I get
{implosion, Egix, Aureal}
{Cephrir, Menalque, sheep, fireisredsir, Dunn}

and I think this also gives me more scumteam options I find compelling to play with

[Aisa]

Thanks. I wouldn't put anything past the devil cat in an among us suit though

[Aisa]

Aureal HELLO I don't know what I want but I suppose I'm here vibing

[Aisa]

implosion I see two likely teams right now. I see egix/fireisred/cephrir, and I see egix/aureal/sheep. I think both of these are plausible and I'm not sure I want to commit to one today. I think the four non-egix names above are not meaningfully interacting with or considering egix and so if we believe that two of those names are mafia, that makes egix much more likely to be mafia as well in my eyes/ Notably several of these players have gone after me, sometimes multiple times, for things such as "low activity" while never mentioning egix who I feel also fits under that criteria.

Can you explain how you came to the conclusion of these two teams specifically?

Like, what is your starting assumption? Is it {fireisredsir, cehprir, aureal, sheep} contains two mafia? Is it that Egix is scum?

[Aisa]

I suppose I'm too deeply in the hole if you're scum rn and I'm gonna lap up whatever you say

[Aisa]

Aureal HELLO I don't know what I want but I suppose I'm here vibing

Hello!

I want to figure out if I can actually get different air filters for my heat pump or if the one it came with is actually good so long as I clean it sometimes.

This is annoyingly hard to figure out.

Ooh yeah I've tried googling old appliances a couple times in the past and google was not in a helpful mood

OK I'm no longer going to be vibing I'm going to be sleeping instead. Excited to see what tomorrow will bring though!

[Aisa]

Someone please reassure me I’m not crazy and I’ve definitely got the game completely solved :3

Someone? Anyone. Cmon. How is this not an attractive proposition?

I think for a while I was at
{implosion, Cephrir, Aureal}
{Menalque, sheep, Egix, fireisredsir, Dunn}

but Egixslot is actually definitely a townslot at least until I change my mind again and it's a stronger read than Ceph. If I swap those I get
{implosion, Egix, Aureal}
{Cephrir, Menalque, sheep, fireisredsir, Dunn}

and I think this also gives me more scumteam options I find compelling to play with

I'll need to mull on Egix.

Why is Menalque in your PoE? I think that he can be scum here but I think it's pretty rare.

If you have convincing reasons on Aureal and Egix then I'm definitely interested in hearing them. Is Egix based primarily on CSF?

Unrelatedly, there's a part of sheep's posting right now that kind of just makes me want to lim him today. 1761/1762 just feel very... exactly-the-thing-scum-has-to-post-here to me. Like it's just the only place he can naturally go now that Aisa is off the table. It feels kinda trite.

Yeah I’m not really sure why Mena is in the PoE either. I think his posting when he was talking to fire was probably a bit town indicative, but I probably wasn’t completely sold when I made the list and I haven’t re-evaluated since.

For Aureal I still stand by the reasoning here:

Spoiler:

Dunn I have an easy time justifying a scumread on to myself. Maybe the Andante spiel is +town, but it's just one action and I feel like the rest of his ISO comes down to vibes, and I don't even have a history of being very successful reading him on vibes.

I've thought about Aureal and rn I want to townread her for feeling similar to the one previous time I played with her, where she was town. I don't think there are actually any glaring ways she feels different from that game. I think her posting style should be quite demanding to reproduce as scum; it's quite dense. Good on her if she can mimic it so well on her first time rolling non-multiball scum, but I've decided I'm ok with townreading her for now.

If you want an example of what I mean about Aureal's posting style, see this post. She gives a lot of arguments pro / con the various slots.

P-edit: I'm trying to keep myself from writing long posts lol
this is one reason why I think another day of fire vs skitter would not be great, even though I don't mind the long posts personally. I'm aware a lot of people have complained about this recently.

Egix we’ll see if I feel inspired later today (lol @

convincing

reasons) but yes it is mostly based on CSF

[Aisa]

(lol @convincing reasons)

i sort of meant this in a way of like, reasons that you find convincing to yourself :X

that reasoning on Aureal is, I think pretty decent, though obviously I don't have the same direct access to knowledge of vibes. It does kind of remind me of some correct meta townread that I was able to give on someone a long time ago (penguin specifically, in a game I just randomly nostaliga-reread recently). In that I think that sort of meta playstyle-townread on specifically a relatively new player (is Aureal relatively new? uhhh lmao 2005 join date nope oh well, maybe she just came back from a hiatus?) is pretty good, combined with playstyle being hard to fake is probably a solid foundation for a town case. But maybe if Aureal is really experienced it's less solid.

It does seem like she recently came back from a long hiatus. She seems to have a good number of town games under her belt since she’s come back but the only scum game I was able to find was that multiball game somewhere in my ISO.

[Aisa]

Something feels weird about Aureal vs Cephrir, from a skim exactly 0 players who are not called Aureal or Cephrir seem to have used it as a reason to scumread either Aureal or Cephrir and I wonder why that is.

i thought aureal was p scummy in it but idk its one of those things where i don't really know how to explain why its scummy if nobody else sees it

No that's something I see too, I definitely feel like Ceph "won" that argument, I guess at some point I just decided that doesn't trump my overall read

[Aisa]

i don't think that aureal's attempts at looking like she's solving in this game come remotely close to what she looks like as town so im still really confused how you come to that conclusion

Funnily, I don't really know how to explain that her play is similar to my previous experience of my towngame to someone who doesn't see it, lol

I guess long posts

Spoiler:

ok so aureal's two latest ISO dives on sheep and skitter both left me kinda... unsatisfied. they're both just i think way too much summary for my taste, and not enough analysis of what that means for the alignment, or sort of grasping onto overall meanings or motivations beyond just "i like this" and "i don't like this". with both i was kind of left thinking, whats your point?

but, i figured, ive never played with aureal before tho so maybe this is just her style. so i went and looked through a bunch of aureal isos from previous town games to see if this is just how she tries to sort people later in the game

and i really don't think it is

most games didn't have anything like this. the analysis was a lot more clear, most of her time was spent engaging with people and picking at specific points and explaining why she had a specific read on them, etc

there were a couple ISO dives that were explicitly summaries of interactions, but rarely were they done as like, a way to make content

the closest thing i found (across like 8 games) was this post:

Spoiler: from another game

Subject: Micro 1073: Purgatory - Game Over!

A few thoughts from some browsing of AV's ISO.

Pretty sure AV is NOT scum with Ranger because of 239 and is probably just town (the opening about Aisa reads pretty towny, are scum going to talk about how they want to read someone, doesn't seem so likely). I just can't see any reason why scum would make an argument directed to their scumbuddy only to have the scumbuddy misintepret it, forcing the original questioner to have to clarify and ask again. Ranger does not look as good for the misinterpretation, though. The original question in 181 and called out to Ranger again in 209 seems pretty clear and yet Ranger somehow digs up 45 and uses it in her response which clearly is not what AV is talking about- he literally quotes the 'freaking out' in 181; and if Ranger only saw 209's question it says Arko putting Oc at e-2 was "earlier in the thread" than the freaking out and 45 clearly is not earlier than the vote in 54.

It's also seeming less likely from this that Oc/Enchant is scum with Arko/Drew, as Oc was the one who triggered Arko's e-2 shenanigans. I could see this sequence as Arko starting to break down under early pressure, then coming back the next day to see feedback in the scum PT that his OMGUS stuff was bad and he unvotes.

I'm thinking Bella is town, though I haven't dug deeper on her yet. Vander/Ranger/Arko makes sense as a team to me. Arko gets pressured early but also seems to have decent support so Ranger defends in over-the-top fashion, trying to get Vander towncred for a heaven vote by bussing Ranger and then hopefully people think Ranger was white-knighting townArko so he has a heaven shot later? The heaven voting is maybe a little weird if so but I think makes enough sense... Drew puts Vander at h-1 and Ranger doesn't hammer, but that could be because obviously Ranger shouldn't want Vander there and maybe Ranger's slot is salvageable once we see Vander was scum, but not if Ranger hammers. It seemed reasonable to wait and figure Bella or I would be amenable to voting Vander. But AV switches to Aisa, Drew votes Aisa to see if that'll get AV back, Ranger obviously can't do anything but vote Aisa, then Bella brings out her Aisa read and Enchant loves hammers.

I'm moving towards voting Ranger but we've got time and she's got stuff to deal with. And I'll keep doing more poking around.

but even this i think has a ton more analysis to it than the two we've seen this game. it references specific posts to make the points, but it's explaining an overall narrative and overall conclusions

i kinda think that stuff like aureal has done here comes when scum aren't really sure how to produce meaningful content and so they just pull up an iso and start summarizing what they see, because it looks long and has lots of links and people think "oh they efforted they're probably town"

maybe i missed a time when this was done? aureal if you have any in mind feel free to point me to them

In that game you linked I also for a while was unsure on Aureal, partly for the same thing, namely in her catch up posts she mostly summarised things a lot and didn't give many conclusions. And those worries didn't bear out there lol

[...]

Not only are you using one game's worth of meta to townbin aureal, but you also don't even have a scum game to see if she can replicate the things you're looking at. That doesn't seem as strong as implosion is characterizing it below this, which I find strange in its own right

One game of meta seems a lot weaker than trying to read her based on this game and her actual actions here

One game's worth of meta plus her actions in this game is stronger than zero games of meta plus actions in this game, which is what I have for many other slots in this game.
You're right that I can't check if she can reproduce it as scum, and that is a problem. I am not happy that it is a problem, it's sort of difficult to accept it, but yeah, it is a problem.
I don't townbin everyone I've played with based on one game's worth of meta, idk if this makes it better or worse lol

Checking citations is town 4ever

*Urge to scream intensifies*

(in the sense that the idea of fire being town is too threatening to my worldview right now)

[Aisa]

the woo reaction test was good tho

imagine if that was theatre. wild

When you pour your heart and soul into a game (I'm being dramatic, it's ok) and people keep townbinning you for a silly reaction test, lol

[Aisa]

That is exactly what my mind is envisioning to resolve the cognitive dissonance right now, lol

[Aisa]

Brb need an empty field to scream in

[Aisa]

Great work everyone! I'm paranoid of Aureal now. I hope you're happy <3

[Aisa]

I think I just do not believe Dunn's worldview is the main thing

the level of reasoning is just so weird compared to a) the amount of stuff in this game's 70+ pages and b) the level he's pushing it

like his entire approach is based fundamentally around Egix lock wolf because people are semi-ignoring egix. which just seems egregiously flawed to me (I think egix's hot-topic-ness is the exact amount I'd expect when considering his absence + the whole game besides skitter townreading CSF. I think Dunn's assertion that people were pushing him purely for inactivity is relatively untrue).

and then he's like I thought about who makes sense as egix's team for a bit and I came up with these 2 different pairings. and I cant really go much further than that. and then periodically repeats the same plan to resolve those five players.
and each time he's explained further I just dont really feel like there's anything there that it's actually getting deeper lol.

it feels much more likely to me to be wolf who found "this course of action that I propose would win the game for us" than villager who's naturally sort of nitpicking lines of reasoning?? picking one weird explanation and then ignoring so much else, like not really evaluating how villagery the content of peoples' posts look independently

I agree with this

[Aisa]

Can someone help me find the courage to Just Lim Fire??

[Aisa]

Thank you ur such a good cheerleader
Ok is there anything anyone wants to get done before I put him to E-1 (he might self-hammer then??)

[Aisa]

egix96 popin was also very underwhelming and the day phase could use just a bit more time in the hope that he does something lol

So true bestie
This also reminds me that I was supposed to towncase Egix for implosion lol I suppose I better do that first

[Aisa]

implosion can pick the massclaim order?

[Aisa]

Okay so big condition to this is that I’m not caught up properly — in fact if there’s anything major that happened during absence that would be helpful if I could be pointed in that direction — but I think even in a world where fire is town he’s still the objectively best lim here because if he’s town then that gives the most information on trying to figure out what scum were doing the past 2 days

I think it’s more likely that skitt was a scum driven CW and that scum are resisting bussing today in the hopes of the wagon diverting elsewhere but if he isn’t scum then is anyone seriously wanting to bet the game on fire town tomorrow as well after two days of steadfast resistance and, in this scenario, two counter wagons flipping town?

If you *are* willing to bet the game on fire!town and also wouldn’t lim him tomorrow the justification should be rock solid and it should be presented now

If we lim town today and it's a 3-person scumteam I consider the game basically lost. Of course we should play on tomorrow for the 23% chance it's only a 2-person scumteam. But just to say that I'm not an "even if fire is town" gal.

In terms of major events, fire claimed townie (I forget if he already claimed this yesterday?)
And idk some reads have shifted, everyone seems more interested in Aureal?
Seconding that Ceph should explain why fire is town if he feels so strongly about it

[Aisa]

implosion can pick the massclaim order?

Why not you

I'm not gonna volunteer myself and he seems widely townread lol but I could do it

[Aisa]

Ugh, I think I need to look even closer at the setup. I don't think the Mafia is going to know whether any further power roles are in the cop branch or other PR branches? But they should know whether there are other PRs or if the oneshot cop was it?

Also I totally didn't realize that it's possible to have only two Mafia? You're not just making that up, right? I guess that would happen if a SK was rolled, but I never saw anything saying that it would replace a Mafia member so I was thinking it'd be in addition to three Mafia.

I suggest just looking at the C9++ wiki page this will answer all your questions
PS if you're scum no I'm not amused by the townslip xx

implo is too slow, one of u two do it

I'm volunteering you

Well I want to get my beauty sleep right now and there's no consensus on massclaim. If you reach a consensus just popcorn or get someone else to give you an order or wait for me to wake up I guess

[Aisa]

fireisredsir you are infuriatingly difficult to scumread

[Aisa]

VOTE: Aureal
I started writing half of this thought dump like 12 hours ago and it's... interesting to see what has happened in the interim

How my thoughts got to this point

(skip if walls make you sad)

Spoiler:

It seems like I somehow tricked you suckers into hard townlocking me, so I can skip the step where I apologise for being chaotic bwahahahaha

Anyway. fire doesn't seem all that scummy anymore. I thought his initial meta on me was extremely flimsy, and once I locked in {implosion Aureal Egix} as town there weren't many other places where it made sense to me to eliminate anyway. But his updated meta is better, and he didn't continue pushing me. That got me thinking about how it doesn't feel like he's been pushing any sort of agenda today. He hasn't really proposed an alternative solve, or done anything. If he's scum it seems like his only strategy has been to talk expend effort talking about how towny certain people are and how hard this game is to solve. This... just doesn't seem like scum behaviour.

I still have worries, of course. I'm worried about how bad for the gamestate (sorry) fire vs skitter was if it was a TvT. I'd need to reread that to get a better sense of whether it was something fire accidentally got sucked into (better).

I also have worries about my new push. For a while in my head Aureal was the mafia industrial complex's chosen mislim, and I still worry that I am playing into that. It feels like this is an elimination that might actually

happen

. Could it be that easy...? If Mena and implosion are town where is the opposition to the wagon...? But maybe it is that easy, I don't think it's possible to tell right now.

And Aureal... oh, Aureal. I think I've ignored some warning signs for too long. Let's talk about them.

Aureal scum warning signs

I tried to ignore these for a while, but I've come around to the idea that I... shouldn't, especially there are moments like these from

both players in this slot

.

Spoiler:

[...]
This game slowed down for a while then quickly blew up over the last day, I'll be in later to catch up.

To those asking why I voted dunn — I’m holding off a little more on this until I hear from woo

Yeah I dunno what to tell ya. it's gonna be a little late, had some irl stuff. I'm reading through the pages rn and nothing feels like it changed for me. Enchant and Andante still my biggest scumreads. Invis and Skitter still my TRs. Rest various shades of null.

This is not how I personally react to the game moving, by a large stretch. I'd need to reread to be sure but IIRC at the time it felt like lots of interesting things were happening. Woo was able to write this post on Drew, so I think this shows that at least in principle he is capable of paying attention to a specific slot's posting and being interested in individual posts. I feel like he should have been able to muster up the resolve to... have some more opinions on the rest of the game?

Spoiler:

Ok, the promised post on Aureal
[...]

Spoiler:

[...]
I'm watching implosion be a clear driver of the wagon on Enchant and going "scum wouldn't be

that

brazen... Right?" So I'm not like totally sold on implosion, it is kinda weird that there's apparently no counterwagoning, but probably not a Mafia slot?
[...]

The reads on Mena and implosion are both kind of hedgy.

- Feel free to address any of my megapost!

[...]
The Mena/implosion hedging I'm not completely sure what you mean? I don't even talk about implosion in the post you cite. I think I worded my comment about Mena poorly though - I was saying that we could consider Mena as being on the Enchant wagon (as implosion had suggested in 949 and I was vaguely remembering since I was reading some new stuff as I did my catch-up). Not anything about Menalque's alignment- I was putting him down as town for that and the read has only gotten stronger since to where he's my strongest townread.
[...]

The bolded is false, hopefully this should be clear with the quote surgery I've done. I don't think I need to explain why someone forgetting what they've said is a little worrying.

Spoiler:

VOTE: fire

Skitt was a counterwagon because fire is scum

Anyone who tries to save fire from being the lim today is also scum

Uh, you think two thirds of the remaining players are scum? This just isn't really a productive attitude. I'm more open to fire now but we could still, like, talk about it?
[...]

Really made sure the day ended there by parking on fire for most of the day and then mind controlling merlyn

VOTE: aureal

You were parked on fire for most of the day? This all started because fire said you were "the one to actually take action and start campaigning for alternate wagons" remember? That doesn't seem to match up well with your description of your day. Why are you not seeming to take issue with the inaccurate way fire describes your action but nitpicking mine, other than obvious reason that fire's inaccuracy makes you look better?

Aureal let's talk about Ceph, I'm pretty sure he's town

Sure. Why's he town? I've not had him as better than null and these conversations with him have him coming off very oddly nitpicky.

Really made sure the day ended there by parking on fire for most of the day and then mind controlling merlyn

VOTE: aureal

You were parked on fire for most of the day? This all started because fire said you were "the one to actually take action and start campaigning for alternate wagons" remember? That doesn't seem to match up well with your description of your day. Why are you not seeming to take issue with the inaccurate way fire describes your action but nitpicking mine, other than obvious reason that fire's inaccuracy makes you look better?

fire's original wording was

person a) [Cephrir] was a part of tvt wagons and then actively worked to try to move away from them and dismantle the locked position towards the rest of the game

which is compatible with what Ceph was doing (pushing skitter, then parked on fire, then asked about starting a 3rd wagon, then decided to sheep Merlyn which resulted in him voting skitter)

I don't really see how that's compatible, but if you do I'll let it go. Saying "hey Merlyn what do you think about starting new wagons on one of these people" without even so much as moving off a main wagon yourself seems pretty

in

active and

not

working to me.

As far as massclaim, I've rather come around to the 'just lim fire' position. I really dislike how fire just vanished once I started pushing back at him, and has only decided to talk about implosion (a consensus townread) since then. It feels like scum realizing they could end up making me look too unpartnered if they keep engaging with me.

VOTE: fireisredsir

These are (IMO) some key moments in her trajectory today. 1. "let's talk not auto-elim fire", 2. pushes Ceph, 3. when I tell her that Ceph seems town she seems very happy to change back onto fire again. I'm specifically worried by the "I don't see how it's compatible but if you do I'll let it go"; this isn't how I would react I think. Usually when a player I respect disagrees with me I consider the merits of what they said to determine what to do. Sometimes there's some angst because I might find it hard to go against them. Here we have the opposite: she seems quite confident in disagreeing with me, but still lets it go and is quite happy to switch onto fire.

This... strikes me as how I'd instinctively play today if I were scum and fire was town. And also very much not how I'd want to play if I were scum with fire.

(Which brings up an interesting point: maybe if we eliminate Aureal today and she is scum, then her interactions with fire can help take the sting out of our collective paranoia of fire.)

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