Okay so big condition to this is that I’m not caught up properly — in fact if there’s anything major that happened during absence that would be helpful if I could be pointed in that direction — but I think even in a world where fire is town he’s still the objectively best lim here because if he’s town then that gives the most information on trying to figure out what scum were doing the past 2 days
I think it’s more likely that skitt was a scum driven CW and that scum are resisting bussing today in the hopes of the wagon diverting elsewhere but if he isn’t scum then is anyone seriously wanting to bet the game on fire town tomorrow as well after two days of steadfast resistance and, in this scenario, two counter wagons flipping town?
If you *are* willing to bet the game on fire!town and also wouldn’t lim him tomorrow the justification should be rock solid and it should be presented now
In post 1852, Menalque wrote:
Okay so big condition to this is that I’m not caught up properly — in fact if there’s anything major that happened during absence that would be helpful if I could be pointed in that direction — but I think even in a world where fire is town he’s still the objectively best lim here because if he’s town then that gives the most information on trying to figure out what scum were doing the past 2 days
I think it’s more likely that skitt was a scum driven CW and that scum are resisting bussing today in the hopes of the wagon diverting elsewhere but if he isn’t scum then is anyone seriously wanting to bet the game on fire town tomorrow as well after two days of steadfast resistance and, in this scenario, two counter wagons flipping town?
If you *are* willing to bet the game on fire!town and also wouldn’t lim him tomorrow the justification should be rock solid and it should be presented now
If we lim town today and it's a 3-person scumteam I consider the game basically lost. Of course we should play on tomorrow for the 23% chance it's only a 2-person scumteam. But just to say that I'm not an "even if fire is town" gal.
In terms of major events, fire claimed townie (I forget if he already claimed this yesterday?)
And idk some reads have shifted, everyone seems more interested in Aureal?
Seconding that Ceph should explain why fire is town if he feels so strongly about it
I see no reason to massclaim if we lim fire. Locking people in to claims is barely a real benefit in this setup and any cop with important results can either claim anyway or have already breadcrumbed and there’s no one else really whose claim is crucial I think
Ugh, I think I need to look even closer at the setup. I don't think the Mafia is going to know whether any further power roles are in the cop branch or other PR branches? But they should know whether there are other PRs or if the oneshot cop was it?
Also I totally didn't realize that it's possible to have only two Mafia? You're not just making that up, right? I guess that would happen if a SK was rolled, but I never saw anything saying that it would replace a Mafia member so I was thinking it'd be in addition to three Mafia.
"Yeah after a point it felt like Aureal was the only one talking sense despite being a goose so I just followed."
-furtiveglance
The dichotomy is not "claim today and get a direct contradiction we can resolve vs claim tomorrow and have to resolve it in ElO". We're not guaranteed to get a direct contradiction
especially
if we claim today when scum have less incentive to make a last minute fakeclaim and doubly especially in this setup.
It's somewhat the nature of this setup that massclaim today is more likely to tell us who not to lim than it is to tell us who to lim; ergo, it's not worth the cost of letting scum kill our best consensus-townread PR or whatever.
This is why the whole time I've been saying lim fire or massclaim. massclaim might have made more sense if fire claimed a PR but 95% of the time, a massclaim today will lead us to the conclusion "eh, i guess we lim in the VTs today"
In post 1864, Aureal wrote:
Ugh, I think I need to look even closer at the setup. I don't think the Mafia is going to know whether any further power roles are in the cop branch or other PR branches? But they should know whether there are other PRs or if the oneshot cop was it?
Also I totally didn't realize that it's possible to have only two Mafia? You're not just making that up, right? I guess that would happen if a SK was rolled, but I never saw anything saying that it would replace a Mafia member so I was thinking it'd be in addition to three Mafia.
I suggest just looking at the C9++ wiki page this will answer all your questions
PS if you're scum no I'm not amused by the townslip xx
Well I want to get my beauty sleep right now and there's no consensus on massclaim. If you reach a consensus just popcorn or get someone else to give you an order or wait for me to wake up I guess
In post 1864, Aureal wrote:
Ugh, I think I need to look even closer at the setup. I don't think the Mafia is going to know whether any further power roles are in the cop branch or other PR branches? But they should know whether there are other PRs or if the oneshot cop was it?
Also I totally didn't realize that it's possible to have only two Mafia? You're not just making that up, right? I guess that would happen if a SK was rolled, but I never saw anything saying that it would replace a Mafia member so I was thinking it'd be in addition to three Mafia.
It's possible in this setup to have 2 mafia or 3 mafia, both with or without SK. It's roughly 22% to have 2 mafia. If there are exactly 2 mafia then it's roughly 76% to also have an SK.
Mafia know whether there were 0-2, 3-4, or 5-7 'T' letters rolled, and thus whether there were 0-2, 3-4, or 5-7 power role letters rolled. If there are 2 mafia, then either 1-shot cop was our only power role (and no SK) or there is one of a doc/roleblocker/1-shot vig out there (and an SK). If there are 3 mafia then there's more room for a lot more possibilities.
In post 1872, fireisredsir wrote:
i think the game makes a lot more sense if there's only 2 so ima just decide to believe in that world now
I think this is almost always the wrong way to think about this situation. Or at least I feel like I've gotten burned by it before in this setup but I have no specific memories therein. I think that it's always better to assume there's 3 scum until we know there's only 2. Not that that's what you're saying, but yeah, the thought crossed my mind of "ugh it's annoying to find scum in this game" but i'll be damned if that thought hasn't crossed my mind in plenty of games where there were 3 scum.
Also at this point I do actually feel like there are plenty of slots that can be scum (even if you are town). Of course only 2 wouldn't surprise me at all.
