Open 820: The Siege of Aurelia — Game Over!

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Good morning!

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unwnd is quite town for page 2. catboi to a lesser extent.

I think there's some amount of advantage we could eke out by controlling where people go but I think we also can get a fair amount of useful info just from where people decide to go on their own. unwnd, since you were specifically worried as scum about town's options to synchronize, I'm curious what exactly you didn't want town to have the option to do.

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unwnd is quite town for page 2. catboi to a lesser extent.

I think there's some amount of advantage we could eke out by controlling where people go but I think we also can get a fair amount of useful info just from where people decide to go on their own. unwnd, since you were specifically worried as scum about town's options to synchronize, I'm curious what exactly you didn't want town to have the option to do.

Congrats. You are scum who has pulled reads out of your ass.

I'm not, but good try!

Yeah I'm willing to divulge a bit. I'm sure scum is already aware of it, but there's a mechanic that allows them to switch people. This works in town's favor as well however given that two scum cannot be in the same place. Therefore, my intent in the last game was to not make any sudden movements. I didn't want to confirm any information basically. The town in that game tried to use I believe Keep(?) to box in scumreads or something to that effect. We ended up exactly 1-1-1 in terms of wagon makeup where Ydrasse followed my lead, and then catboi just happened to find himself elsewhere too. I think it's a dangerous game (for scum) if they just let townies start plotting because then the onus is put onto them, and it becomes a matter of reacting less to what town does and more about complying and hoping that their plans are misguided.

This is roughly what I figured; notably a single person doing an early jump has no impact on this plan because it doesn't matter

that

much which of the three locations we use for which purpose if we do want to go this route.

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Sup nerds VOTE: Gate
Pile onto gate now

I orginally thought this was scummy, but then I thought it was towny, now I realize this is NAI

This post is pretty "hello world, I have an internal thought process! Guess I can't be scum!"

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There's 3 scum, and this is a pretty quality playerlist. I'm not really worried about "giving scum information" like there isn't going to be scum who know how to think about a setup like this.

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So you're fine with kyouko hammering just like that?

Never mind, I misinterpreted what you mean by info to mean like, explaining what we think is a good idea setup-wise. I don't think there's much reason to make moves early but again I don't think it's meaningfully bad because we get to analyze it. Like in principle your early jump last game should have been interpretable as evidence that you were scum. So it could be meaningfully scummy but I don't feel strongly about kyouko's jump so far.

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I'm getting some bad vibes from implosion but i'm not good at reading him so i'm not sure how much stock to put into that

I feel like every single game we've played together in x amount of time, you've had this exact take. I've probably made this post in some of them too. I'm sure my memory is biased but.

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You've also said that in every game we've played in the past x amount of time!

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And I think I was scum in at least one and maybe two, and town in at least one.

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My only objection is that I need to put myself in with penguin and skitter so that we can have a thunderdome.

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Why are none of the areas called the thunderdome? Whoever designed this setup is a piece of work.

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Guess what happens if scum!me swaps? Gate flips first, and I get confirmed to be scum in another running minigame if I swapped out of gate with flipped scum, which I would have to if you and implosion are both town.

Don't think this is how the setup works.

At this point I actually feel townish on both T3 and ssbm, moreso on T3.

I think catboi could be scum.

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My townish pile is similar to skitter's actually, but dropping the "maybe" on unwnd and swapping catboi for Penguin.

I don't know how to read dunnstral at all though.

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My townish pile is similar to skitter's actually, but dropping the "maybe" on unwnd and swapping catboi for Penguin.

I don't know how to read dunnstral at all though.

If he's active then he's town.

The problem is that the one game I played with him shows that the converse of this is false, and he's not being especially active.

Do you consider him in this game so far to be active? If not, then how do you read him?

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Also if you have a not teamed read on implosion and I then why would you not want to come to Gate with us?

I'm not sure where this is coming from; why would specifically not being in a place with two scum together be incentive to go there? As far as I can tell, the vague goal of the town should be to be in the same place as two other townies (because this is the only way to win the game outright in phase one) and barring that, being in the same place as two scum is preferable to one of each (because at least

in theory

we'll get more info if the split contains a 1-2 and a 3-0 location rather than three 2-1 locations).

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I also like ssbm's idea, broadly. At least I think it makes sense with where people already are.

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"cluster obvtown at the keep to make the keep easy" is kind of not the best strategy wise because the keep is already the easiest location for us to win. I guess I can see why to put two there but like, fundamentally using the "resource" of consensus townreads to win the keep seems like an inefficient usage.

I still think ssbm and T3 are acting town. It's not really worth putting in effort to convince someone I think is town that I am town until phase 2 if we're in the same location after the swap.

ssbm brings up interesting points on unwnd re: his early posting and this game vs the previous (though I don't buy that so much because unwnd basically lampshaded it by describing how he'd acted in the last game) and I'd like to see him reply to them.

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I think skitter's reaction to catboi last page is townish. I don't think catboi promising to wield the hammer at keep is townish, obviously if catboi follows through then they're town but it's a quite easy thing to say and then not follow through on for any of x reasons (being swapped out or a changed gamestate, etc).

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I think right now my vague scumpool is catboi, unwnd, Dunn and S_S and my hope would be 2/3 scum in that pool (which I have even odds of getting just by luck I suppose)

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or well i'm not discounting skitter certainly but i do like her last page quite a bit.

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I'd love to go to gate if ssbm's read on me changed, if not then *shrug*. I don't think we're going to get a sort of broad consensus thing at this point. And thinking about it a broad consensus who-should-go-where is probably not even that good since 1/3 of the player list is scum. I guess it's a problem that 3/4 of my current townpool is calling me scummy lol

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Well today got extremely away from me.

Catching up.

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I dont know what the scum motivation is but, again, the fact that you keep relying on 'oh but why would scum do this' is scummy, as it feels like you're depending on the fact that scum wouldnt do this to be townread
It, again, sounds like you're scum who purposefully did this to play that card

This sort of gets at how I'm feeling about catboi's play but not entirely. I think I'm just not entirely convinced the stances are genuine in general. The read on skitter feels like, I mean I kind of feel like they're doing exactly what they're accusing skitter of with starting at a conclusion and finding stuff to justify it.

catboi's play around the keep feels like either planning to do a swap to change things or just accepting that they're being somewhat scumread and that they're okay losing the keep since it's the easiest place for town to win.

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Off the top of my head, Peng and Skitter in Gate, Implosion, unwnd, and S_S in Wall. Does that sound like a good formation? @Implosion, if you're town, are you comfortable with me-Peng-skitter?

I would have been in principle but having darted around i did see this is no longer a thing lol

I probably would have been happier with you-me-penguin if i could get you to trust me. I still have like some intrinsic paranoia about skitter although I do only see reasons to think she's town so far. Just like, last time I played a 9p setup with 3 scum some things went horribly awry with my reads early and idk how much *exactly* i trust myself and i'm not like, saying i'm going to flip on skitter unless like i'm put in a place with two of my townreads or something. Idk I should probably not go too deep into how my read on her feels right now just bc it could be useful info for scum thinking about swaps.

oh and i see you actually suggested that at the gate at the bottom of the page too, neat

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Ugh i'm having paranoid thoughts of like unwnd/ssbm
I think we may have just lost the potential for 2/1 at the wall

Like, unwnd/ssbm both scum? Is the idea that they're going to make it look like scum is being swapped out of the wall when it's actually being swapped into the wall, or something?

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I just ask bc the natural impetus should be for scum to avoid going to the same place since the ideal for them is 1-1-1, so I don't see the motivation for unwnd jumping into gate unless it's something weird like that. though it could make sense since we were saying we want to group scum at wall

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I think the best thing for me at this point would, incredibly, be a me-skitter-penguin thunderdome at wall and S_S going to gate. That should also have a decent shot at 2 scum in one place, at least I think it still gives a decent shot of an all town wall.

That said I'm skeptical at this point that we're going to be able to read very accurately into a swap. I guess we'll see if we can once it happens. And also we should wait until S_S can contribute.

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gosh we still have almost a week in deadline X_X

i'll be V/LA for like, a week and a half to 2 weeks starting Wednesday btw. I should still be keeping up and posting probably at a similar rate to how I am now, just will literally be on vacation and will potentially be too pooped to post like Wednesday-Thursday bc taking a redeye Wednesday night.

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Also why do you want a me/you/penguin thunderdome

I think it’s the most likely remaining shot at 3 town in one place (at least I think you’re both above random as town and the last person is s_s who is basically at random for town, so maybe I’ll prefer him if he actually does look town after contributing)

If it’s eg unwnd s_s and catboi it could explain unwnds jump as the last way scum can likely get 1-1-1 since s_s might wind up just default assigned to wall with everyone else joining gate and keep

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Thought: if it winds up that the current keep turns out to be T3/catboi town and Dunnstral scum, it's probably a good idea to rethink reads more broadly because it's possible Dunn went there because he considered the keep a losing ploy based on what catboi had been saying and figured that his best bet was to tank himself and win both other areas (which would imply he thinks the other two scum can win their areas)

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I do see why S_S at gate is bad.

I don't think I should go to gate at this point, I think ssbm is the only one somewhat advocating it and I also am in principle concerned about ssbm being confirmed and mishammering me. Though I guess actually at this point she should really try to be as ambiguous about her reads as possible to avoid giving scum any info about a gate related swap. That's true of unwnd as well. Anyone at the gate needs to keep their reads close to their chest before the swap. Maybe Penguin would be good at the gate by that logic since he's been I think leaving the most to the imagination with regards to what his actual reads are.

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I also do think there's a good chance S_S is town because I think there's plenty enough mass of scummy people in the rest of the list and his play so far is, well, milquetoast but that's to be expected. So there's a decent chance of all-town wall either way.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but the current makeup of the wagons should indicate that scum has already chosen a spot? See there's 4 left for the choosing and well, scum can lose if they're all forced into one. I don't know if this has happened though, because if I'm scum and I see only one spot is left? I take that last spot just so I don't lose.

This is true but like it tells us basically that the scumteam isn't a subset of {s_s, penguin, skitter, me} and that's almost no information.

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I do see why S_S at gate is bad.

I don't think I should go to gate at this point, I think ssbm is the only one somewhat advocating it and I also am in principle concerned about ssbm being confirmed and mishammering me. Though I guess actually at this point she should really try to be as ambiguous about her reads as possible to avoid giving scum any info about a gate related swap. That's true of unwnd as well. Anyone at the gate needs to keep their reads close to their chest before the swap. Maybe Penguin would be good at the gate by that logic since he's been I think leaving the most to the imagination with regards to what his actual reads are.

Yeah but we think it's possible you're scum with unwnd. You're scumy, so I'm not sure if it should be your choice where you go.

If consensus wants me at gate I'll go there but that isn't the sense I've been getting. You were saying you want S_S at gate and I haven't seen anyone other than ssbm say they want me at gate.

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I have things to say on recent posting but I see no reason to say anything about reads until post-swap.

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so... it's me you or penguin. Do you want you or Penguin?

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Now I'm paranoid of skitter :\

T3 and ssbm both say they want me at gate and she says she's probably okay with that and then i assume 592 is her saying she's going to go to gate anyway, immediately after that?? unless i'm misreading 592

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w/e.

VOTE: Gate

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i was being told to go to gate???

I also have other reasons that I'll explain post-swap that I have no reason to explain right now.

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There's also very little functional distinction between d1 and d2 wrt the hammer except that we have more freedom to be open on d2

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T3 literally told me to hammer. ssbm was just waiting for catboi and they said something else and were clearly not going to answer her question

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whatever. litigate things after the swap. I think me going to gate is for the best at this point.

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i assumed he was saying he was annoyed at me

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i mean i kind of feel like shit now but w/e. what's done is done.

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VOTE: skitter

We should definitely resolve gate first because it being public info that skitter is scum will make things a lot less, well, bad.

I hammered partially because I thought unwnd was acting townier and so I thought there was a decent chance of all-town gate. I guess this is consistent with that. As the day went on I was getting paranoid that skitter was stalling out of obligation and that she was trying to get into gate as scum without any ill will being directed toward her after there had been rhetoric around other people going there. I still didn't really think she was scum but I didn't think it was bad to hammer. The day felt like it had been verging on over for a while to me and I wanted to know what the swap was going to be. Idk. I think it's probably S_S in wall as scum, and I actually am thinking more that it's Dunn rather than catboi at keep but I digress.

ssbm: what are your current feelings and what do you need from me? I'm going to sleep shortly but will have plenty of time tomorrow.

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My general take on things right now in wall: I think it's very, very likely that unwnd is town (so S_S is scum now that Penguin is clear, I was leaning that way somewhat strongly but not surely). If unwnd is scum then almost nothing about yesterday/the swap makes sense; in particular, consider things from scum's point of view. Now that we see no swap from keep, we know that the keep was 1 scum before the swap, meaning that scum were probably trying to avoid 2-1-0. If unwnd is scum, I don't see why skitter plays yesterday the way she did, and I don't really see why they'd make that swap. In that world, if T3 is town then scum would have to be semi-abandoning keep based on catboi's rhetoric, and they'd have to be doing something along the lines of thinking skitter wins the 1v1 vs me and that unwnd wins vs penguin and S_S and it just seems worse than swapping like, T3 with me or ssbm and then confirming him. Or swapping catboi somewhere, or doing something like that.

If unwnd is town then things make pretty simple sense; scum had to swap one of skitter/S_S with one of me/unwnd/ssbm. Basically they get to pick what the 1v1 here will be and who will go to the wall with Penguin. They probably chose to IC ssbm because she was the most widely townread, with the hopes that both me/unwnd get mislimmed. If they thought that they had to win both of those then they were probably afraid to put S_S at gate, so it's a matter of who skitter 1v1s and I could imagine them thinking either way would be easier at that point. If skitter/S_S are scum then their play yesterday makes sense, with skitter angling for gate and S_S taking wall to let her go to gate bc they'd rather have her at gate than him and that would leave them with more flexibility with their swap.

For keep I think the world in which T3 is scum changes things a lot in terms of scum's motivations in the case that unwnd is scum but I also just don't think we're in that world on T3's play.

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I mean if people’s reaction to me taking gate is any indication…

I assume she wanted gate but wanted more to have the cred from not deciding quickly/letting discussion continue. joining late is also pretty much what I’d expect her to do as either alignment.

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ssbm, I don't understand your plan with limming unwnd; what do you do next based on a town flip vs a scum flip? I thought you determined that wasn't actually a good idea?

PP, what do you think about the possibility of unwnd/implosion? Feels like implosion would have just sabotaged his team for no reason.

I am leaning toward skitter being scum because of this. The wall should definitely be resolved before the gate, at least.

If skitter+unwnd are scum, what's your explanation for scum choosing to swap the two of them rather than doing something else?

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Implo do you have a scum game I can read of yours?

My most recent is a serial killer game from 5 months ago:
viewtopic.php?f=51&t=85788

I'm kinda struggling to find an actual scumgame and can't remember when my last one was, I can keep looking if you want an actual mafia one but suffice to say it won't be particularly recent unless I'm forgetting something (and I haven't played at all in months so).

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I don't find S_S's 774 especially convincing; I think S_S-town should be able to think another level or two past "the swap is just WIFOM". I feel like if S_S is town then there are so many other swaps that just seem to simply make more sense. WIFOM doesn't mean scum are picking a swap arbitrarily in a vacuum and the justification in that post doesn't really compare other possible swaps or like, consider the context that scum would have had when choosing a swap from how d1 went down.

But, then, logically, why does skitter hesitate on going to the gate, when that would theoretically be their optimum grouping, allowing you to ninja her?

I like the way this is written and yet there's a part of me that's afraid of the confidence you already have in such a narrative.

skitter hesitates going to the gate because of her playstyle. My read on her is she's not the kind of player who would do something "anti-town" like picking a location before everything is like, fully-everyone-100%-in-agreement-decided as either alignment. I think her as town wouldn't do that and her as scum has to imitate that.

My confidence comes from this being really the only way I have to make sense of the game. Like, I have enough specific combinations of info from my perspective to rule out a lot of stuff with a couple of heuristic assumptions.

Wait a minute, I think I might have made a mistake in 710

yes, and for some reason i thought you'd seen it already (i think I misinterpreted 719).

you say skitter+unwnd would have been 2-1-0 but it would have been 1-1-1 pre-swap. skitter can be scum with unwnd town and a pre-swap 2-1-0 distribution w 2 scum (skitter + s_s) in wall and 0 in gate.

I'm also starting to think Dunn is the scum at keep. Or at least I feel like the game probably makes more sense that way.

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I'm pretty sure the way this setup is designed, it is *never* possible to mathematically deduce information in one location based on the flip in another location. I think it's not possible to deduce anything mathematically at all, actually.

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Yeah it can definitely be useful. You just can't get a guarantee like ssbm is trying to do.

Why do you think he took the last spot in the keep, then?

Idk. Might have thought they'd be able to use the swap there but then weren't able to.

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hi i accidentally just played a board game for 4 hours and need to go to sleep now >.>

i caught up and now actually think dunn might be the best vote in keep??? or at least i think i would rather catboi vote dunn than dunn vote catboi if they're not voting T3. but i am coming around on t3-scum as a possibility

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The reason is the dynamics right now. Essentially the way I'd expect scum to play keep is like, for the long game. I'm just not sure how to square Dunn's play right now with being scum; you and T3 both obviously want to be voted (which ofc town should want to be) but Dunn doesn't, and I think a sort of lack of self-advocacy earlier could go either way (hence the arguments yesterday about your play) but at this point I don't know what it accomplishes as scum. Obviously one answer is it gets posts like this to be made but I'm not sure I buy that level of WIFOM. This is coupled with T3's play today being more lackluster than yesterday, I think. I think right now I'd kind of want to save keep for last; if I'm right that it's skitter + S_S in the other two areas (and if like, we get one of them wrong) I think I'd still want T3 as the vote, but if it turns out that the distribution is 1-1-1 pre-swap (i.e. if unwnd is scum) then I'd consider that as circumstantial evidence that T3 is scum, since I'm not sure why skitter/unwnd would be the swap if T3 is town. Actually I'd kind of consider that just like, evidence that Dunn is town in general because if the scumteam is skitter/unwnd/dunn then I have no idea how the hell scum would arrive at the conclusion that they should swap in that way.

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I can definitely buy skitter/S_S/t3, or at least I think if we play with that team assumption at this point (i.e. limming S_S and voting Dunn/catboi) I'd be very surprised if we lose (though tbf that is mostly because I feel pretty good about S_S vs unwnd I think irrespective of the keep, I generally like unwnd's reactions this day). I do think keep is more complicated than wall but like, if we go into keep 1-1 for whatever reason after resolving the other two it is keep, it is the easiest one for us to win by default. I'm kind of vacillating in who I think is scum there, I think if I were there and had to vote right now it would be Dunn but I wouldn't feel that good about it.

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(that is, vote for Dunn as town, just to be unambiguous)

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Alas, I did not expect to win, but I did not expect this to be the way in which I did not win.

I do like this setup a lot tbh, I'd definitely play it again.

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It's interesting bc it didn't feel all that tense from my perspective; obviously winning each minigame means a lot but I kind of felt like, well, every swap will have a certain way in which it's read into and after that most of the power per se lies with the town. I think as mafia it was easy to just focus in on my own minigame and just say whatever was most useful about the others (my main goal was just to perturb things since it looked like we were going to lose them, which seemed to almost kind of do something but smartly everything i said was ignored postflip).

I think we made a mistake in not utilizing T3 correctly; I think with the early townreads on him being the way that they were we should have probably made sure to swap him somewhere or swap catboi somewhere. Obviously the hope with this swap was to make things look like they could be 0-2-1 but I think not switching keep was maybe a long shot.

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(where "utilizing T3" means "utilizing the fact that he was broadly townread")