Open 289 - Hard Boiled - Game over.

[Regfan]

Hey everyone I've had a brief look through the thread, certaintly not a deep enough read to be able to draw any conclusions but I plan to have a constructive post up sometime later tonight or at latest tommorow morning. In reponse to Yoshi's questions from earlier in the day:

What time zone are you in? GMT + 11, I live in Australia so it's highly unlikely that I will be online at the same times as you are.

RVS or RQS? Why? Neither, I think both detract from real scumhunting and lead the game to be iceboken by useless discussion rather then relevant reasoning. Personally I like to begin the game with a discussion on the setup in particular to work out what the optimal way to play it is. I'll go into this in my next post.

What is your experience level with Mafia? I've played mafia at epicmafia for two years, multiple forum mafia games here and at other mafia websites so I have a good amount of experience.

How active can we expect you to be? I've been quite active, between 1-2 posts a day on average, especially since I take my laptop with me to uni most days.

[Regfan]

Firstly, lets start at the very beginning, a very good place to start. (Points for whoever can work out what the reference is from).

Incoming wall of text, my apologies in advance it's just a lot to catch up on in one post.

I've re-read this thread multiple times throughout the past few hours and each time I come to the same conclusion, there's been far too much discussion revolving around the same few players and not enough questioning and pushing of information against Xtoxm, Iamusername and ConSpiracy. Therefore I have some questions:

@ Xtoxm and Iamusername, if you both had to point to one post in this thread you think is the scummiest what would it be, and do you think the person is posted is mafia?

@ Krazy, you recently seem to have dropped your vote and suspicion for Ythan, does that mean you currently think he's town?

@ SnakeEyes, it's very apparent your content has dropped down as the game has progressed whether it's due to illness or lack of interest I do not know, but can you state your biggest three suspects right now?

@ ConSpiracy is your mafia read on Umbrage as strong as it previously was, and if so who do you believe to be his partners?

It's highly apparent that a great deal of this games posts have been back and forths between Ythan and Krazy. I read Ythan and Krazys back and forths to consist of multiple null-tells, in fact I don't see Umbrages suggestion that they could both be mafia attempting to buss and detract conversation being true at all, I doubt they would get as personal as they did if that were the case. Thefore I'm going to attempt to leave out their irrelevant posts in my summary.

Umbrage: OK, so my vote on ConSpiracy is about as serious as you can get for page 1 reads. Xtoxm stands out as odd to me, he didn't random vote, he didn't really say hello or anything, he just answered the questions. I'm not saying it's scum or town, it just looks odd.

This comment doesn't sit well with me at all, what's the point of stating your observation if you're not going to attempt to draw any conclusion from it. If you were indeed doing this to 'bait' people and reaction-test why has your reaction-catcher been limited to SnakeEyes reaction to it only?

SnakeEyes: We will never get anywhere without bandwagons. The whole idea of a premature bandwagon is a fallacy.

I strongly disagree here, a meaningless bandwagon shows close to no insight to anyones allignment and if anything can cause more harm then good due to an early claim, especially in a setup such as this one where there's multiple PR's.

DarthYoshi: Hunting for scumpairs before there have been any flips is junk science.

Disagree with this as well, there's no such as a junk science in mafia, any attempt at scum-hunting is generally a good one, you're never forced to stick with your reads or your interaction reads thus there's no reason that one shouldn't attempt to look towards the future when you think you're pushing towards a mafia.

Umbrage: Why do you care about xtoxm? I didn't attack him, and even if I did, he can defend himself.

Umbrage: I threw out that bit about xtoxm because I wanted to see who would either attack him, or come to his aid. Snake did the latter. Same basic principle with the vote on you.

You've just contradicted yourself right here, I don't even need to point out howso.

Umbrage: NO!!!!!!! WRONG!!!!!!!!!!! SNAKE EYES SAID THAT HE FOUND ME SCUMMY!!!!!!!!! I HAVE PROVEN IT WAS NOT A GET-OUT-OF-RVS BANDWAGON!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! YOU HAVEN'T EVEN BEEN FUCKING READING THE FUCKING THREAD!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Attempting to argue your point by spamming in caps lock is never going to help convince anyone, if you really want to convince us that your argument on Snake holds some ground (Which from re-reading I don't think it does) then you're going to need to refraining posting like this.

@ Umbrage, can you summarize your case on Snake into one coherent post that doesn't involve AtE (Appeal to Emotion) and caps-cruise rages?

DarthYoshi: Unvote. Vote: Krazy. Your play so far has been hellaciously anti-town, regardless of your alignment.

You state this without going into any depth, if his play was as anti-town as you make it out to be why not attempt to show it? Sure, he may have been attempting to tunnel Ythan for an early period of the game, but him doing so ensured that Ythan posted content in return

@ DarthYoshi, so again what did Krazy do that was hellaciously anti-town?

Xtoxm: I'm getting mostly town vibes from the more active players, with the sole exception of Ythan, whose reactions to the assault from Krazy look a bit too complacent for what I would expect from a townie.

You say this without elaborating on it at all which defeats the purpose of the post, it makes it seem just like an attempt to seem active when you're not at all.

@ Xtoxm, who do you have a town-read on and what caused the town-read?

Krazy: The funny thing about a vote that looks like it is an attempt to make it seem like you're not tunneling and a vote that means you're not tunneling is that there is no difference.

@ Krazy, you seem to be of the opinion that Yoshi is/was tunnelling on you, can you point out what posts he did so?

Snake Eyes: Krazy vs Ythan is making my head hurt. Neither is scummy, but it's a serious distraction.

Couldn't agree more with this.

Ythan: Krazy, you're not doing anything with Lebowski. You just picked out an arbitrary lurker to shift your vote to so you could pretend you're not tunneling. But moving your vote alone doesn't change anything. You're still a tunneling idiot.

vote Umbrage

@ Ythan, so you disagree with the concept of pressuring lurkers to post via voting them?

Abelcain: Although now that I'm looking through your ISO your case against Snake is starting to make more sense than it did the first time around. I'll read it tomorrow when I'm less tired and can retain more information.

@ Abelcain: I've yet to see this, in which case do you mind looking into it today?

Also, I think your assumption that there's scum on the wagon is a bit premature, as there's no way to know if Umbrage is town. I'd even say that given how scummy Umbrage looks, this wagon could have grown a lot faster, if Umbrage was actually town. It would be very easy for scum to add their votes to the Umbrage wagon, if he's town.

This is just speculation on top of more speculation.

@ SnakeEyes, do you think he's town, yes or no. Do you think mafia are yet on his wagon, yes or no. Reasoning for your answer in both cases would also be appreciated.

Umbrage: iamausername
ConSpiracy
Vordark
Ythan

You really think there isn't scum on my wagon? Do you mean then that each of the above is town? I asked you why you thought ConSpiracy was town a GAZILLION TIMES, and I still have not gotten an answer. WHY ARE THESE PEOPLE YOUR TOWN READS?

I read this as a town-tell, ignoring the anger shown in the post, there's a highly logical point provided here, I don't see any reasoning why mafia would attempt to point out a particular list of people stating a majority/a part of them are also mafia, it turns too many people against them and diminishes any real possibly they have of ridding their vote.

Abelcain: Having a scumread =/= necessarily thinking you're scummy. If someone did something really scummy once, but otherwise you felt like they were town, you'd have a scum read on them for the scummy thing but you'd still have town read overall.

No offence but this would be the stupidest post I've read in the entire thread, having a scum-read implies that you think they're mafia, whereas reading someone’s actions as scummy doesn't have to mean you think they're mafia. Either you've made a severe typo or don't understand that there's such thing as a scummy-town whereas there's no thing as a mafia-town.

Krazy: I also notice that CS's interest in the game basically seems to drop off simultaneously with V unvoting him.

@CS: Aside from the Umbrage wagon you helped form and then got bored of, I'm not really sure I at this point can characterize you as not also active lurking. Among the Umbrage wagon, if I were to guess that there was someone scum on it (which there is, admittedly, no guarantee), you would be my first guess.

Although I do understand what you mean here and where you may be coming from I don't agree with it, the game has involved various large amounts of walls and I can see how someone might become bored and less inclined to reading it regardless of allignment that being said I'd love to see some more content from CS.

Quaroath: On that note, RVS vote needs to come off. unvote
Now to apply some plz answer pressure vote: iamausername

A fresh person to the game, yay.

@Quaroath, what's the point of a pressure vote if you state it's a pressure vote?

Umbrage: I agree with him on some things, not the case with others. But hey, that's life. I've no reason to think he's scum at the moment.

@ Umbrage, what do you agree with him on and what do you disagree with?

Umbrage: I smell bussing buddies.

FoS: DarthYoshi and Vordark

You've now stated you FoS'ed CS for a period of time, you FoS Snake, you think Ythan and Krazy might be bussing and now Darth and Vordark, on top of that you vote TBL as a reaction test.

@ Umbrage: Is there anyone you haven't suspected yet?

Krazy: My opinion of DarthYoshi is rather in flux. In regard to your entire case on him, I don't think him explaining his thought process behind maintaining or dropping a vote is all that suspicious, no. There are some things he has said that have irked me, but right now he is not my top candidate, or even in my top 3.

@ Krazy, can you mind elaborating on who your top 3 canidates would include, and your reasoning behind it?

I still have to read through the Yoshi/Vordark interaction properly so I'll avoid that for now, as for my current reads on players I think Umbrage vs SnakeEyes is actually town vs town, I can understand parts of the case against Umbrage though I believe his intial actions were just scummy town caught in the headlights and attempted to back-pedal from there. I think Snake bringing up past games of Umbrages is a slight town-tell as well as there's close to reason in providing a game where he was scum and town if he were mafia, he could just show us the game were Umbrage was mafia in the past expecting us not to research ourselves.

As for my leading suspect at the moment it would have to be Iamusername, it seems highly evident that he's been attempting to post as minimal as possible while not being categorized as a an active lurker or a lurker, all of his contributions have been backed up with little to no logic of reasoning. So for now

Vote: Iamusername

.

This is very subject to change though as I still have a lot to read and take in, though I would love some answers to my questions and again apologies for the wall of text.

[Regfan]

I'll read over and reply in regards to the posts since my last one later tonight but for now I think we may have an effectively auto-win position. I know a great deal of mafiascum players despise speculating about the setup and claiming but I think doing so right now is our best bet.

Considering there's 9 town vs 3 mafia the days should progress as follows:

D1: 9 v 3 (End of, 8 v 3)
N2: 8 v 3 (End of 7 v 3)
D2: 7 v 3 (End of 6 v 3)
N3 6 v 3 (End of 5 v 3)
D4: Would be lylo.

This means that we have 2 msylnches + 1 no lynch opportunity. However, if tracker/vig chooses to be vig instead of tracker what it gives us is 2 Mslynches + 1 Vig shot.

With two mslynches it's highly unlikely that mafia will counter-claim a town power role meaning we should be able to attain 4 clears from mass-claiming. Assume that this is the case (Which I think it highly likely is), then there will be 8 VT claims, 3 being mafia 5 being town.

The only way we'd be able to lose is if we lynch/vig-shoot 4/5. Meaning just pure-odds wise we'd havea 60% chance of success ignoring scum-hunting and PR's night-actions added to it.

Therefore I would emphasis my recommendation that tracker/vig picks vig tonight and that we should mass-claim right now

[Regfan]

A) Clearly mafia already know what PR's are in the game except for once meaning that knowledge won't be news to them
B) Sure, it might give them kill-targets but it also means we can redirect scum-hunting away from scummy pr's.
C) You clearly haven't read the idea, by following it we have a 60% chance at winning, then you can add the PR's night actions on top of that as well as the effect of scumhunting to see that by doing this we gain a massive advantage.

[Regfan]

The setup is indeed broken, and I think my posts proves that. Just because the setups broken via playing the optimal tactic of it doesn't we shouldn't play the optimal tactic of it. Thus as previously stated I think mass-claim is needed. If anyone disagrees I'll give you 1-2 days to do so otherwise I'll begin it.

[Regfan]

Assume they do counter-claim a power-role then we have direction for todays lynch (Being we know one of two people are mafia) and even in worst case that we lynch wrong we have a guarenteed mafia for tommorow.

[Regfan]

So the very very worst case scenario is a 5 way lylo? Whereas the likelyhood is a near-autowin, personally I think it's the way to go, I'd love to hear some more opinions on the matter though.

[Regfan]

Iamusername, as previously stated that's without the possibilty of power-roles clearing or confirming players. I consider that to be great pure-odds of winning.

[Regfan]

"Don't just say "then the power roles can do the rest". Prove it. Run through the night actions and show me how this will be autowin."

Will do.

I'll go through it assuming mafia all claim VT and then I'll go through it assuming 1 mafia claims detective/psychologist.

All VT Claims: 4 Clears. 8 Unclears, 3 Mafia. Then lets assume that town manage to lynch town before mafia in every give scenario

D1. Town lynch VT claim #1 (8 v 3)

N1. Vig shoots VT claim #2. (7 v 3)
Mafia will be forced to kill detective/psychologist, (6 v 3)
Two scenarios: Scenario #1. Hider hides behind a VT claim #3. Hider dies, VT #3 is confirmed mafia,VT claim #3 is cleared. (5 v 3)
Two scenarios: Scenario #2. Hider hides behind a VT claim #3. Hider lives, VT #3 is cleared town. (6 v 3)

D2. Two scenarios:
.
Two scenarios: Scenario #1. Town lynch confirmed mafia (VT #3). (5 v 2)
Two scenarios: Scenario #2. VT #3 is cleared, town lynch VT #4. (5 v 3)

N2:
Two scenarios: Scenario #1. Mafia shoot Vig/Other Torn PR (4 v 2) Vig shoots VT #4 (3 v 2)
Two scenarios: Scenario #2. Mafia shoot Vig/Other Town PR. (4 v 3) Vig no shoots due to lose if wrong. Hider no hides. (4 v 3)

D3:
Two scenarios: Scenario #1. Lylo: VT #5, VT #6, VT #7, VT #8 alive. 5 Alive. 4 Unclears. 2 Are mafia. 2/4 Chance + 1/3 chance to lynch mafia the mafia that day and the next day
Two scenarios: Scenario #2 4 v 3. Alive = VT #5. VT #6. VT #7. VT #8. 7 Alive. 4 Unclears. 3 Are mafia. 3/4 Chance + 2/3 chance + 1/3 chance to lynch mafia that day and the following two days.

[Regfan]

Therefore in scenario 1 we are able to lynch VT #1, VT #2, VT #3, VT #4 and VT #5 before game loss is over. Meaning the only way to lose would be via lynching every VT in the game.

Therefore in scenario 2 we are able to lynch VT #1, VT #2, VT #4, VT #5 before losing with VT #3 being clear, so again the only way to lose would be to lynch every VT in the game.

Therefore assuming all mafia claim VT we have an 80% chance to win just by random-lynching in the VT Claims (Which we wouldn't random, we'd scumhunt thus increasing the odds further).

I'll go into what happens if they claim detective/psychologist later tonight, got to watch a movie first.

[Regfan]

http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... start=1075

This page and the following page involve it, and multiple people state the town-sidedness of the setup. I'll have the other claim possibilties up in the next hour or two.

[Regfan]

Apologies for the delay in this, been focusing on getting up to date in my other games as well as dealing with uni.

All 2 VT Claims, 1 Detective/Psychologist Claim.: 3 Clears. 9 Unclears, 3 Mafia. Then lets assume that town manage to lynch town before mafia in every give scenario

D1.
Two scenarios: Scenario #1. D/P claim #1 was mafia. (9 v 2)
Two scenarios: Scenario #2. D/P claim #1 was D/P (8 v 3)

N1.
Two scenarios: Scenario #1. Vig shoots VT claim #1. (8 v 2) Mafia shoot D/P. (7 v 2) -> Hider no hides.
Two scenarios: Scenario #2. Vig shoots D/P claim #2 (8 v 2) Mafia shoot Vig (7 v 2) -> Hider no hides.

D2. Two scenarios:
.
Two scenarios: Scenario #1. Town lynch VT #2 (6 v 2)
Two scenarios: Scenario #2. Town lynch VT #1 (6 v 2)

N2:
Two scenarios: Scenario #1. Vig no shoots. Vig dies. (5 v 2)
Two scenarios: Scenario #2. Vig no shoots. Tracker dies (5 v 2)

D3:
Two scenarios: Scenario #1. Town lynch VT #3 (4 v 2)
Two scenarios: Scenario #2.Town lynch VT #2 (4 v 2)
N3
Two scenarios: Scenario #1. Mafia shoot Tracker (3 v 2)
Two scenarios: Scenario #1. Mafia shoot Hider (3 v 2)
D4:
Two scenarios: Scenario #1. Lylo. Alive are: VT #4, VT#5, VT#6, VT#7. 4 Unclears, 1 Clear. 2 Mafia.
Two scenarios: Scenario #1. Lylo. Alive are VT #3, VT #4, VT#5, VT#6, VT#7. 5 Unclears. 2 Mafia.

Scenario 1: Town get to lynch VT#1, VT#2, VT#3, VT#4 4/7.
Scenario 2: Town get to lynch VT#1, VT#2, VT#3. 3/7

Alright, mass-claim doesn't work if this is the case, as lynching incorrectly D1 would give us only 2 MLs and assuming we lynch incorrectly both times we end up at a 5 way no clears lylo.

Unvote

I need to catch up with the Yoshi/Vordark case.

[Regfan]

Re-read and caught up with everything my overall reads on everyone are posted below:

Xtoxm - He is my biggest suspect by far at the moment, none of his posts seem to hold any weight and he's actively lurking without showing any intention to scum-hunt nor defend himself. Leaning mafia.

Krazy - My read on him is becoming less solid with every post he makes, that's probably because I'm seeming to find an excess of town-reads but his posts with the exception of the Ythan argument have been highly useful and his reaction to the mass-claim suggestion I read as a town tell. Leaning town.

Umbrage - Given that he has had some emotional outburts and is quite clearly tunnelling on SnakeEyes, I read him as misguided town, a lot of his actions are things I can't find mafia motivation behind, I'll go into this later when I have more town. Leaning town.

Ythan - Has had a mix of constructive and non constructive posts throughout the game, similar to Snake the amount of his content has slowly diminished though I do have a gut town read on him and I'm attempting to pin-point what caused it. Leaning town.

ConSpiracy - All of his posts contain copious amounts of logic and from re-reading I don't find a single post of his that makes me doubt his allignment. Strong town read.

Snake Eyes - As stated earlier, his content has died down massively, but earlier in the game I've seen multiple actions done by him that I would consider town-tells. I believe I've gone into this earlier as well. Leaning town read.

Vordark - His case against DarthYoshi seems to be an active attempt to scum-hunt even though I don't exactly understand/agree with it I believe he'd be pushing towards a lurker as mafia at this point in the game (That being that there's an incredible amount of lurkers towards the end of the day). Leaning town read.

Quaroath - Hasn't posted a great deal of content similar to Xtoxtm, but when he has posted I find myself agreeing with a lot of what he's saying. Leaning null read.

Abelcain - Seems to have stood back a lot more then the other players in this game, he has posted logical and contructive posts however a lot have to do with defending suspicion away from himself rather than actively scumhunting. Leaning mafia read.

iamausername - Intially was my biggest scum-read however that's lessened massively especially due to his reaction and reasoning when the massclaim was suggested. I wouldn't go as far to say I think he's town right now, but he's certaintly not one of my larger FoS's. Leaning null read.

DarthYoshi - Personally, I've read through the case on DathYoshi several times, and I'm not sure I undersand it exactly, you suspect him I would greatly appreciate if you could summarise the case against him into one post. Right now, I haven't found many town-tells from re-reading his posts nor have I found any scumtells. Leaning null read.

With all that said I'm going to

Vote: Xtoxm

.

Umbrage I have a question for you: If you think SnakeEyes is mafia who do you think his partners are?

[Regfan]

Summary:

Town reads

Krazy
Umbrage
Ythan
ConSpiracy
SnakeEyes
Vordark

Null reads

Iamusername
Quaroath
DarthYoshi

Scum reads

Xtoxm
Abelcain

[Regfan]

Excuse the excess of posts in a short time span, I'm just catching up on a lot at once.

ISO on Xtoxm: N = Nulltell. T1 = Minor Town-tell. T2 = Medium Town-tell. T3 = Strong Town-tell. S1 = Minor Scum-tell. S2 = Medium Scum-tell. S3 = Strong Scum-tell (This is how I will be doing all my ISO's)

1. Answers Yoshis questions. N
2. States he has town-tells on everyone active except Ythan but doesn't attempt to pressure a lurker to gain additonal tells. S1
3. States with his disagreement on the Umbrage wagon, states his FoS's with is again Ythan, promises to read and post about it. T1
4. Changes his FoS to DarthYoshi after saying that Ythan wasn't as complacent as he previously thought (How complacent is a scum-tell I'm unsure). Votes Yoshi 'because he has the most votes' rather then believing he's the most likely to be scum. S2
5. Responds to my questions mentions he has given his 'raw opinion and nothing else' however I fail to see how 3 reads throughout an entire game would constitute as someones raw opinion. Either N or S1, unsure yet.
6. Continuation of the previous post. N
7. States disagreement with mass-claim and his reasoning behind it. T1
8. States he it has been 4 days since his last post but refrains from defending himself or stating his current FoS. S2

Although post #3 and #7 are viewed as minor town-tells his lack of real content to the game and lack of desire to scumhunt in the few posts he has made make me more certain of my vote.

[Regfan]

Umbrage I have a question for you: If you think SnakeEyes is mafia who do you think his partners are?

[Regfan]

Flawed arguments are indeed a scum-tell but that doesn't mean they always indicate mafia, especially when the 'flawed argument' is something that's based of the end of the RVS period.

[Regfan]

I'll read this, collect my thoughts and have a post up tommorow morning, I don't think I can focus on a case this deep at 1am.

[Regfan]

@Abel, I'll point out the posts I'm talking about later today.

@Quaroath, sorry to hear that I wish you both the best of luck with the recovery.

@Iamusername, I was finding myself thinking the same thing in regards to Ythan.

Finally got enough time to devote to reading this case, there's no point me responding to the posts you claim to be null-tells and irrelevant posts so I'll leave those ones out.

Post #47: I read this as a null-tell to be honest, it's not the best attempt at scum-hunting however the questions are all understandable. N

Post #51: I've stated ealier I believe, that 'hunting for scumpairs is junk sicence' is illogical because you can still undesrstand interactions and see patterns that lead people to be less likely alligned with others. Though I don't see the implication he makes of a CS/Snake team that you see to be saying, I read this post as a minor scum-tell if that. N Leaning on S1.

Post #120: I don't see how an over-explanation is a scum-tell however I strongly dislike the vote on Krazy without any attempt to attain reads elsewhere (He didn't even have a scum-read on Krazy). S2

Post #186: I understand what you mean here, he's essentially attempting to make as few enimies as possible via not attacking anyone specifically, it's highly similar to fencesitting. S1

Post #216: This post includes a few contradictions, the most obvious being 'You're clearing reading the thread but saying very little'. At the same time I don't find his defence scummy at all there, just the lack of content in relation to other players. S1

Post #258: This entire post screams null-tell to me. N

Post #273: Long post involving answerigng others attacks at him, however I find it odd he brings up Vordark without stating an opinion or case against him here. S1

Post #285: Disagree with you strongly here, it seems his explanation in this post is. Xtoxm is contributing nothing, and just continued to I find this scummy and anti-town thus vote worthy. N

Post #290: As for this post, I'm not sure what you mean by 'confirmation bias' you'll need to explain that to me, thanks in advance. ?

Post #297: The 'I have a finite amount of time, 'I've been pressing my argumetns against Xotxm' doesn't sit well with me at all. The entire argument at this point is Xotxm's general lack of contribution. Considering the attacks put forward against him, I would have thought he'd have been ISO'ing Vordark to state his read on him at this ponit. S1

Post #333: The 'I've been beating the Xtoxm-is-scum drum for quite a while now' seems like an attempt to gain clearance of Xotxm flips mafia. As for the rest of the post, it contributes nothing nor does it hurt at all. It seems to be a post for the a sake of posting. S1

Post #355: I can agree with some of what you've said here, he is indeed fencesitting on his FoS's again though I don't find it to be as strong as scum-tell as you do.

Tldr: I can understand what you mean by the lack of real contribution throughout the game from him, his posts have been plentiful however he has barely stated his FoS apart from Xotxm and in neither case has he stated his reasoning behind it nor his townreads. I can seen where you're coming from with you case, however I still feel more comfortable with a Xotxm lynch, with that said I think Xotxm+Yoshi scum-tell is highly likely.

@Everyone, we only have 5 days till the lynch and we need to be able to attain a claim before the lynch progresses as well as allow time for a counter-claim if there is one.

[Regfan]

I promised I'd do this when I got time earlier, and now I'm fully caught up with this thread so I'm going to point out the posts where I think Abel was slightly over-defensive. Same ISO system as before, however I'll add D = post revolving around defence for this ISO.

1. RVS. N.
2. Answer to DY's RQS. N.
3. Votes Krazy for suggesting to policy lynch. N.
4. Answers Yoshis question in regards to his reasoning for the Krazy vote. Questions Umbrage. N. D.
5. Points out Umbrages contradiction but refrains from stating a read on him. T1.
6. Same as Post #5. N.
7. Does a minor wagon anaylsis and draws no conclusions from it just states Umbrage is making a big deal over nothing. N.
8. Defends Vordarks attack on the 'backpedal on somtehing he's been called out on'. Suggests lynching Umbrage due to the 'Lynch all Liars' policy which contradicts his vote and reasoning in Post #3. S1. D
9. This entire post leads to no meaning, no benefit and no real scum-hunting. It's merely a post for the sake of seeming active. S1.
10. Continues pointing out the wholes in Umbrages arguments, you'd think by this point he'd have put a vote on Umbrage however he witholds doing so. I'd like a reason for this. S1.
11. Explains a misconception of his previous post. N
12. States he's finally starting to understand where Umbrage is coming from in relation to SE. States minor reads on a few players to the extent of 'They're lurking is bugging me'. N Leaning S1.
13. His first real vote of the game, and it's on Quaroth for posting promising more content later, you'd think with the previous play it would be on SE or Umbrage. Brings up misconception about scumread =/= necessarily thinking you're scummy. S1.
14. Unvotes after seeing material from Quaroath, states he doesn't like iamusernames lack of content. Promises ISO's to come, the rest of the post is merely understandable filler. N.
15. His big ISO post. States null-read on CS and Darth mafia. The ISO on Darth highly logical and I find myself agreeing with it. T1 leaning T2.
16. Responds to my questions left for him while doing an ISO on Umbrage resulting in a slight-town read, I find myself agreeing with this ISO as well. T1 leaning T2.
17. Shows willingness to discuss setup-theory to work out if there's an optimal way to play it. T1
18. Points out CS"s comment of 'massclaiming ruins the game' and points out it would be gamethrowing not to, something I agreed with until I finished running the numbers. Examines Umbrages case on Snake, draws some valid conclusions throws his second real vote in the game, this time on Xotxm for lack of content again. Start of the post I would say T1, second half S1. I'll leave this as an N overall.
19. Points out that Xotxm's lack of content and defence is a massive-scumtell which I would agree and disagree with. Though I'm unusure how his vote continues to stay on Xotxm without doing an ISO on him as he has done on several other players in the game. S1.

Overall the quality of his posts peaked half way through the day, since then his post quality has been stagnating however this seems to be the case with several players. My reads dropped from him to scum-read to null/scum read.

As for Xotxm I find his lack of defence and Vanilla claim to be somewhat disheartning, it's not typical scum nor town behavior though I can see it being understanable if Yoshi is his partner and he has nowhere else to push. So for now my vote holds.

[Regfan]

Highly challenged with time at the moment so I'll just state my thoughts outright:

* My town read on Umbrage is dwindling, though he's not close to my largest suspect
* I'm becoming more sure that Krazy is town
* My FoS on Abelcain still remains though not as strong
* I want Quaroath to start posting content in relation to his FoS's
* Snake Eyes needs to let his current thoughts be known, I've barely gained anything from his recent posts.
* I'm still comfortable with a Xtoxm lynch.
* I believe if a VT dies during a night phase at any point in the game, then mass-claim is needed, I'll run the numbers of this over later when I have time.

@Mod, if a lynch decision isn't reached by deadline is the person with the most votes lynched or does no lynch occur? This is important.

3.

Each Day will have a deadline of 3 weeks. No majority at deadline will result in no lynch. I may extend the deadline if necessary for replacements, etc.

[Regfan]

DarthYoshi: @Iam: I thought Umbrage might be scummy because of scumhunting mostly on SE while keeping his vote safely tucked away on Quaraoth. I thought SE might be scummy for similar reasons that I suspect AC—a general lack of desire to help significantly advance the gamestate.

Do you still hold that opinion? If not, then can you elaborate your thoughts on Xotxm's likely partner please.

Ythan: I don't get how I'm the only one voting Umbrage. Will reread for two leading wagons in interest of time.

Earlier I read Umbrages posts as newbfrustratedtown, though lately he's been attempt to jump ship whenever a lynch seems as if it may actually go through to avoid suspicion cast on him later in the game. Thus although I don't believe changing the lynch completly is a good idea due to there being 2 days to the deadline, I would certaintly say he's growing on my suspect list.

Ythan, I'll await your thoughts on Xotxm and Yoshi, but at the same time can you possibly re-read and state your thoughts on Abelcain.

[Regfan]

Huh? Attempting to jump ship to avoid suspicion? Umbrage's vote was never on a big wagon until he brought Xtoxm to L-1, was it? He was the one who brought Xtoxm to L-1, and his vote sat there for a while where anyone could have come in and hammered. It only came off of Xtoxm recently. If his vote was changing to avoid suspicion, he wouldn't have put Xtoxm at L-1 to begin with.

So far today he's voted and said the following people are mafia:
-Xotxm
-ConSpiracy
-Snake Eyes
-Quaroath
-Abelcain
-Regfan

Perhaps more than that even, yet he doesn't explain reasoning for unvoting each person in particular and instead fabricates a case against another person. Unvotes, then votes the new person while yelling how obvious it is that they're mafia. Essentially he has refused to maintain a lead suspect throughout the past few days(With the exception of SnakeEyes) which he hasn't voted in quite some time now.

[Regfan]

Wow, alright a lot happened in that night. I'm going to need to re-read Quaroths lines later. I've got to do a few massive catch-ups in other games today but should have a post up by tommorow afternoon. I've got a few questions for everyone to answer while I catch up:

1) Do you think Iamusername hid behind mafia or vig?
2) Does Quaroths scumflip make you think anyone is more lilely to be town/mafia?
3) Who's your largest suspect as of now?

[Regfan]

What on Earth? Beyond the question of how one would begin to theorize on this topic, what use would it possibly have for anyone?

Speculation about previous actions is in no way useless, his past actions have no indication on future actions taken due to him being dead, thus dicussion on the matter can only be helpful and insightful. Simple: If someone says they believe he hid behind mafia, they have to speicify if they think he hid behind Quaroth of an alternate FoS they have, and then state reasoning behind why they believe that. This forces mafia to take a stand, giving us more information in an event of a future flip.

[Regfan]

Uh. Wow. Posted on the wrong account, mod can you delete that post by any chance, if so I'll repost it here.

Sorry, can't delete it - I can edit though. Got rid of it and edited into this post below:

Alright, sorry for the delay I just finished reading through and catching up on another game where I was 40 pages behind. I've re-read Quaroth's lines and I'm not seeing how is flip leads to Umbrage being more likely town whatsoever, the attack attempted against Umbrage at the end of yesterday was a futile one. At that point it was abundantly obvious that Umbrage wasn'g going to get lynched therefore the push towards him is nothing other then an attempt to seem as if he was contributing. With that said, I still think Umbrage is merely a misguided townie at the moment. Ah, thanks for pointing that out Krazy, I often forget to answer my questions myself:

1. I think he hid behind ConSpiracy, merely due to the fact that he stated no form of trust or town-read on Quaroth.
2. Oddly enough no, I've gone through his interactions and I don't find anything substancial that makes me believe anyone is town/mafia due to it.
3. With Iamusername flipping town I would have to say Yoshi with Abelcain as a near second, though with recent interactions I don't think they're partners, so one of them is mafia, the other is town. Going to need to read more into this later.

@Krazy, you clearly believe Ytahn is mafia, who do you think his partners are?
@Ythan, you think Umbrage is mafia, who do you think his partner is?
@Yoshi, do yo think Vordark is misguided town or mafia attempting to cause a ML on you?
@Yoshi, Apart from Abelcains lack of vote can you summarize the reasoning behind why you think Abelcain is mafia? I know why I do but I want to hear what your thoughts are.
@Umbrage, do you still think SnakeEyes is mafia? If so who do you beleive his partner is?
@Abelcain, if you're doing some re-reading can you tell me your thoughts of SnakeEyes in light of recent flips please?

[Regfan]

Ythan, you mean Vordark not iamusername, right? If you think one of them is mafia but they're not partners, who would you lean towards as being their partner? Who would you lynch first?

[Regfan]

You do realize Iamusername is dead, right?

[Regfan]

I can see the upside in no lynching today to reduce the suspect pool as it has to be done at some point during the next two days regardless, but I would prefer much more discussion before doing so. Umbrage, the idea of HT claiming is pure stupidity it guarentess the death of what will essentially be a clear, and it's not as if their reads are going to be any better then ours. Your insistance to bring up anti-town suggestions is growing old to be quite frank.

My reads on other players at the current moment are all over the place.

My town-read on Snakes dissapearing as the game progresses his intial argument against Umbrage is the only real attempt at scumhunting he has done throughout the game, the rest seems to be more him coasting through the game.

Assuming DarthYoshi flips mafia, then I'd be close to certain that Vordark is town, I don't see their interactions likely to be a buss especially given the current and initial position, with this setup mafia seem to be at a massive disadvantage thus a day-one full out buss would be idiotic.

I read Ythans misundertandig of who's dead/alive to be a dumb-tell in some rights, I don't see him making that mistake or attempting to act dumb as mafia, thus I read him as town at the moment.

My read on Krazy has been flip-flopping throughout the game, intially I had a fairly null/town read on him, however with every comment he's making I become less sure on this. I'll ISO him later and state my current thoughts.

Not much has changed in terms of my read on Umbrage, I find his posts to be annoying to the point of utter frustration but it seems far more like a misguided townie then anything else, thus I still believe he's dumb-town.

Intially Abelcain was one of my larger suspects, and while he still is on my suspect list his posts are starting to contain great amounts of logic, especially the suggestion and speculation in regards to the ML/NL idea. My read on him right now is probbaly leaning null/mafia.

I've been re-reading the case against Yoshi more and more over throughout today and it seems to hold ground. Although his interaction with Quaroth comes out null, I find the way he was constantly attacking Iamusernames logic thoughout yesterday to be extremely off-putting to say the least. He was attempt to unverify Iamusernames suspicion against him by attacking the lack of content that Iamusername posted. With that said:

Vote: DarthYoshi

[Regfan]

And you are then presuming he would be dumb-telling as town? You should really look at his other games then.

Care to provide me with links of where he's made similar errors as mafia then please?

[Regfan]

Sure, I'd love those links. Does that mean you believe his posts in relation to the dead players was him:

A) Actually forgetting who was dead and unrelated to his allignment or
B) An attempt to seem as if he didn't know who was dead in hope that people would read him as town and thus leading him to be mafia.

[Regfan]

@Krazy, I'll read into those games after my test tommorow, but for now I think I understand where you're coming from.

@Umbrage, day one was an entirely different scenario, we had four power roles alive then, one being hider who had the opportunity to clearing/confirming a player and vig who had the possibilty of shooting a second time thus removing the need for a no lynch. There's also a massive difference between 'Nolynching now' and 'Nolynching later today when more discussion has occured' that should be noted. Your rant really doesn't add anything apart from showing your lack of ability to stand back from a situation and reasess it.

[Regfan]

It's actually infuriating attempting to explaining something to you Umbrage. I took back and agreed that mass-claiming wasn't optimal when I ran the numbers of what would occur if mafia claimed a power-role rather then vanilla so you're attempting to misrepresent the situation. But sure, if you want me to go over every reason behind why your plan is heavily flawed I shall do so.

If the Hider Tracker claims today:

- Today's lynch will have a higher chance of hitting scum because there will be a confirmed townie.
- Scum will have to kill the Hider Tracker tonight, meaning that the Psych/Det is safe another night.
- If scum chose not to kill the Hider Tracker, then we will have a confirmed townie alive for tomorrow's lynch as well, again meaning we have a higher chance of hitting scum.

1) You state that if HT tracker claims we increase our chances of hitting mafia from 2/8 to 2/7, the same upside is attained from NL"ing therefore this argument of yours is baseless even you should be able to agree to this.
2) You state mafia will be forced to kill the HT tonight, this increases the chances that they hit a PR from 2/6 to 6/6 thus not beneficial and if for some reason they decide the HT isn't worth shooting and would rather shoot the Pysch/Detec the odds they hit the tracker increase from 1/6 to 1/5 thus again not beneficial.
3) Scum choosing not to hit the HT and hitting a townie is the same thing is as us NL'ing and mafia hitting a townie, the position we'd be in is the exact same therefore this isn't an argument as to why the HT should claim.

If the Hider Tracker does not claim today:

- The Hider Tracker could be killed tonight, meaning we lose our chance at having a confirmed townie for the rest of the game.
- If the Psych/Det claims he'll be killed that night and we'll lose our last PR, whereas the Hider Tracker has no powers and is thus expendable.
- If the Hider Tracker claims in lylo, the scum will counter-claim, and we won't get our confirmed townie. If we mislynch then, it's game over.

So if we want a free confirmed townie, it has to be today.

1) What does a confirmied townie offer us apart from his opinion and thoughts on players which would still be attained if we discuss our thoughts before we NL.
2) No one said anything about Psych/Det claiming therefore even bringing this up is pointless.
3) Tommorow won't be LYLO and tommorow is when the HT can claim, therefore this argument is moot as well.

I'll do a TLDR for you Umbrage. TLDR: HT claiming today offers two things.

A) A clear giving us a guarenteed townies point of view on something, if you want this we have 3 players who died guarenteed town whose opinions you can seek, the player who would be/is our clear will still be stating their opinion today and therefore if they die tonight we still have their thoughts. This means the benefit in HT claiming for this is gone.

B) It means that we increase the likelyhood of Psych/Detectives survival, oh wait we don't because it narrows down the Psych/Detect for mafia by doing so.

[Regfan]

You clearly underestimate the importance fo the HT, even though they now have no powers they're a complete clear, therefore the longer they're kept alive the better it is for us - thus the claiming of them is stupid and idiotic.

On the other hand, you'r overestimating the power of the psychologist/detective. Lets explain these two just a little more;

The psychologist sends in someones name "If they have already killed another player, or kill another player on the night you invethem, you will be told that they do not have the capability to kill". Therefore if Quaraoth didn't send in the kill last night then that means one of the mafia alive must have. This means if that player is ever checked a 'no guilty' would come back. This means the other mafia will send in the kill tonight, and thus a 'no guilty' will come back. This means the psychologist will NEVER get a guilty. Meaning the psycologist will either A) Give us a false clearance on a player or B) Just be a plain clear like the HT, meaning the psychologist isn't worth sacrificing the HT over. I don't see how you can disagree with any of this, in fact I'd like to see you try.

There's a 50% chance the psychologist is in the role in the game. If this is the role in the game it will be impossible to attain a guilty thus this role is just like the HT.

The detective, sends in someones name "I will return a result indicating whether or not that player has killed another player at night on any night, including the night that your action was submitted". Therefore if Quaraoth didn't send in the kill last night and mafia do split the checks then like in the previous scenario this role has a 1/7 chance of getting a guilty tonight. And a 2/6 chance of getting a guilty the following night, the odds aren't massive. So again, this role although far superior to the psychologist is nowhere near worth sacrificing a clear to keep alive.

There's a 50% chance the detective is the role in the game. If this role is in the game, the odds of it getting a guilty tonight is roughly a 1/7. This odds aren't very high.

Neither role has the ability to clear a player so the idea of 'The HT dying is fine since we get another clear' is pure stupidity.

[Regfan]

@Umbrage, I'm losing patience attemping to prove to you why HT claiming is idiotic so I shall allow someone else to take over for now.

@Krazy, I believe I did state my read on him, if it isn't obvious enough it's null though if DY flips scum then I'm positive he's town.

@Abelcain, the meta that Krazy provided doesn't hold that much ground, I just read through one of Ythans games where his play was highly similar to that of this game. That along with the previous games provided essentially show that Ythan is generally a very erratic player-style wise meaning previous games have no real meaning towards his current allignment: http://mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.ph ... 69&start=0

@DarthYoshi, there's a difference between someone pointing out the lack of reasoning on them and constantly attacking the player agreeing with their case, which is what you did to iamusername. You're attempting to misrepresent the situation by effectively saying 'This is out of the blue!' when the truth of the matter is that I stated my agreement to an extent with the case against you on day one, and proceeded to state I prefered the Xotxm lynch however I considered you two as likely partners. Now, what was the purpose of bringing up the L-2 vote, there's only two mafia alive if any blitz occurs we have both the mafia leaving there to be no real danger as of now. My initial intent behind the vote was to apply pressure in an attempt that you would say something allignment revealing however your reaction to it seems to be over-defensive and instead of stating your reads on players you're attemping to attack your town-read on me in hopes that I would change my mind. With that said, you're currently my largest suspect by far.

For now, Abelcain is correct a no-lynch is optimal.

Unvote, Vote: No lynch

Cut: @Snake: What's your reads on players at the moment?

[Regfan]

I apologise for my slight absense I really had no idea it was as long as it seemed to be, with that said I've caught up with the thread and there is literally no new information apart from Umbrage and Ythans continual bickering. A no-lynch is the best way to go forth, it means no power role is forced to claim today allowing a high likelyhood that we can have two clears alive tommorow. Even if one were to die we would have to NL tommorow regardless meaning as long as everyones stated their thoughts thus there's no downside to a no lynch.

Ythan - You believe that Umbrage is mafia, would you mind putting together a case for me, his recent posts seem to be attempting chaos rather then anything else.

[Regfan]

If it's possible for you to do both, that would be highly appreciated. From re-reading interactions I feel the need to get some thoughts down before I forget them later. If you need any explained just ask and I'll elaborate.

If Umbrage is mafia Snake and Ythan are town.
If Snake is mafia Umbrage is town.
If Darth is mafia Vordark and Abelcain are town.
If Abelcain is mafia Darth is town.
If Krazy is mafia Ythan is town.
If Ythan is mafia Krazy and Umbrage are town.
If Vordark is mafia Darth is town.

[Regfan]

Umbrage - If what you're after is the HT claiming today then a lynch would occur. With that said, the HT claiming shouldn't make too much of a difference towards your reads (Except for the read in relation to that person), so I'm going to assume you would want a Krazy/Abelcain lynch if so, can you present a case towars them. Also, what do you make of Abelcains recent posts and suggestion for a no-lynch, town-tell, scum-tell, null-tell?

Vordark - The idea behind NL'ing today if you still don't understand is that we have to either NL today or tommorow due the number situation we are currently in. With HT claiming today it guarentees a PR death tonight instead of keeping it at 2/6. The only upside towards a HT claiming is in the 50% chance that we got the power-role that is effective in this setup and that he manages to get relevant results.

[Regfan]

Umbrage - If what you're after is the HT claiming today then a lynch would occur. With that said, the HT claiming shouldn't make too much of a difference towards your reads (Except for the read in relation to that person), so I'm going to assume you would want a Krazy/Abelcain lynch if so, can you present a case towars them. Also, what do you make of Abelcains recent posts and suggestion for a no-lynch, town-tell, scum-tell, null-tell?

[Regfan]

Krazys approach seems to be optimal - I don't see much more we're going to attain from this day considering all discussion is now becoming about order of claims for tommorow which can be discussed at day-start.

[Regfan]

Reporting in. No counter-claim from me.

I'll refrain from stating my thoughts until everyone has said so, or someone has counter-claimed.

[Regfan]

Amrum, you're going to need to explain why you're voting the uncounterclaimed Hider Tracker.

[Regfan]

Amrum - If you did indeed believe DY was mafia and attempting to claim with a guilty on you, what point would there be to state you were a VT when it's the only claim remaining? The post seeems to be made out of sheer frustration rathen than anything else. I'd like for you to explain to me in what possible sense is Ablelcain congratulating ConSpiracy after his vig shot after saying "The vig must be damn sure about himself to choose vig." a scum-tell. The only possible way I can see is buddying, but considering the fact that ConSpiracy is indeed dead than that's even removed.

"So you think my top scum read would be my buddy?"

This is a complete contradiction towards your FoS in post #675, you state you believe DY's partner is likely to be Vordark, the person who pushed towards DY's lynch throughout the entirety of the game. In other words you attempt to state you bussing would be crazy however you're completely willing to notice and accept the possibility that someone else may have.

Pod Person - Although I can understand your restraint from reading through the entire thread, if you believe Quaroths posts convict Krazy what prevents you from reading Krazys posts in isolation in an attempt to further or remove your read?

Amrum and Pod Person - Do you believe Quaroths comments alone justify a case against your larger suspects? Do you believe in the possibly he was setting
himself up for bussing fodder due to his severe lack of content and therefore aimed his comments towards putting suspicion on town players upon his flip?

Abelcain - Can you state your reads on everyone in the game at the current moment, what do you make of pod-person not reading through the entire thread but just Quaroths ISO?

Considering the fact that DY is now confimred town, the D1 lynch possibilties were between Town and Town, with 2 votes randomly thrown towards Umbrage, one by Ythan and the other by Quaroath, this seems like distancing to some degree, I'll read more into it later when I get the chance. But at the current moment I'm leaning towards Krazy being town, with mafia being inside Amrun/Abelcain/Umbrage.

[Regfan]

I'll attempt to rephrase it. In post #675 you vote DY beliving he's caught scum, therefore you would have had no doubt in your mind during this post that he was mafia. In this same post you state a FoS towards Vodark as DY's possible partner ignoring the fact that Vordark has been attempting to push on DY throughout the entire game. To be blunt, you accused Vordark of bussing DY.

Then in post #685 you then turn around and question someone suspecting you of leading on your partner, in other words you call the idea of you bussing idiotic which is an incredibly strong contradiction towards Post #675. When noted you attempting to bring up self-meta of "I wouldn't buss my partner" which holds no ground whatsoever especially if no games or proof are shown of this.

I find commenting on the night kills to be a null-tell if anything, actually in some regards a town-tell, mafia like to disassosiate themselves with their kill or a night kill therefore avoid mentioning or bringing it up. In Abelcains post, I read it as a mere fillerline, and overall a null-tell.

[Regfan]

I'm Duplicity. Jesus fucking christ that's the worst hammer I've ever seen. I don't know how long I have until the mod scene comes up I'll attempt to summarize my other reads as quick as I can.

Umbrage - Leanign town

. Although his posts are lacking in content and I find him incredibly annoying they all seem to have town-motiavtion behind them. I don't see him getting as frustrated as he has gottent his game as mafia at all, when I took a look through his previous games I found this sort of behavior of his to lead towards him being town.

Albecain - Leaning Scum.

Was one of my strongest scum-reads earlier but since then the read has reduced in strength to a massive extent, if Amrum flips mafia he's town otherwise I'll take a look into him tommorow.

Vordark/Pod-Person - Leaning Scum.

The blitz hammer could easily be an attempt at clearance if Amrum flips mafia. My read on him was fairly slight-town null until today began but none of his actions show town-motivation behind them. His refusal to read through the thread seems to be due the fact he thinks he can misrepresent information as much as he wants and balame it on the lack of context he read it in.

[Regfan]

Sorry I only just got up but I'm working from home today so I should be able to devote the time needed to this game.

Krazy - Who do you believe Podpersons partners is?
Podperson - How come you never attempted to ask for Krazy to unvote him your post?

[Regfan]

Podperson, what do you make of Ythan and Krazys bickering earlier in the game? Apart from his interactions with Quaroath what do you make of the rest of his posts? Edit: Yes, even if you believed Krazy was mafia wouldn't you ask him to refrain from voting this early into the day considering it's lylo?

Umbrage, if your strongest FoS is Abelcain what's with the refrainment from stating it yesterday, instead you seemed to completly ignore your FoS of him then and instead tunnel on Amrum. Considering how the votes have gone the games over if both PodPerson/Krazy are town meaning an Ablecain lynch isn't occuring, between Krazy and Podperson which do you believe is mafia?

Krazy. Edit: Krazy, what's gained from keeping your vote up there if you have some level of doubt in your FoS towards Pod_Person?

Krazy wrote:-Amrun suggests he might make a case on pod, pod blitzes with a quickhammer.


i thought amrun was scum.

Considering you extract majority of your scumhunting from flipped mafia wouldn't the fact that you thought Amrum was mafia lead it to be more beneficial to allow him to go into his game, thereby giving us more information to re-read on after the flip?

also, "blitz" implies that the quickvote came on lylo, which is obviously not the case.

This is incredibly wrong, blitz doesn't imply lylo at all, it just implies a quick-vote attempted to end the day.

town can't blitz, so argument is void.

Yes they can.

[Regfan]

Can you both unvote please, I lost my first game because some idiot early voted and mafia blitzed and at the moment I can see both Umbrage and Ablecain lurking around this thread.

Podperson, you ignored the biggest question I laid out for you in my post: What do you make for the rest of Krazys post that don't involve or include Quaroth?

[Regfan]

I'm beginning to wonder of Krazy and pod person are the scum. Frankly, if they were both town, scum would've won by now.

If you're meaning to imply that you think that both of them are mafia I highly doubt they would buss in a situation like this, they would have to explain them not dying at night in that case. The question isn't 'Are both town' it's what are your thoughts on both of them at the moment?

[Regfan]

Personally I see the most likely partnership to be Podperson/Abelcain as I still have a minor-town read on Krazy but I'm going to need to do some re-reading in the next few hours, Umbrage and Abelcain I see you both lurking this thread, honestly if you're both mafia just end it and save me the time.

[Regfan]

Firstly, Umbrage, what the? How could you possibly think that would be a message to Abelcain, if I were mafia with him the game would already be over. Secondly, Pod has already gone into his reasoning for his Krazy FoS which revolves around Quaroths interaction with him day one.

I'm just going to assume that since you back-to-back posted you're not both mafia together otherwise this would already be over, thereby meaning one of Krazy and Pod have to be mafia. I'm not understanding your "Gut" mafia read on him at all Abel. I found his bickering with Ythan to be a slight-town tell and his insistance on Umbrage being town something he would be unlikely to do as mafia, I think he'd have allowed Ythan to continue pushing on Umbrage and allow the game to end that way.

I'm probably going to hate myself for not spending the extra few hours that I should reading into interactions but I don't see myself change my mind on my Krazy-town read. Pods ignorance and avoidance in going into and examining Krazys posts seems like reluctance to create a case that can be disputed, but arguing that Krazy is mafia purely due to his interactions with a dead person he allows himself not to be attacked in return due to Quaroth being dead.

Vote: Pod Person

With that said, there's a high likelyhood that I get NK"ed tonight so I'm going to explain my thoughts a bit more in advance. Abelcains recent post where he states Pod is outright scum, FoS's but refrains from voting him seems ungeninue as does that fact he believe both mafia are bussing in this postion, I'd like for him to go into this a bit more later but I'm just going to say this.

Cut: Umbrage, I still want for you to go into your refrainment from pushign Abelcain yesterday, you state he's your biggest FoS by far while not mentioning it at all yesterday.

[Regfan]

Regfan! YOU ARE TOWN. UNVOTE THIS FUCKING SECOND!

An unvote isn't needed. The possible partnerships that can exist are:

PodPerson + Krazy. Possible but highly unlikely.
PodPerson + Abelcain. Possible and the one I think is the case.
PodPerson + Umbrage. Possible but I doubt it.
Krazy + Abelcain. Impossible. Game would be over.
Krazy + Umbrage. Impossible. Game would be over.
Umbrage + Abelcain. Impossible. Game would be over.

Therefore Podperson has to be mafia.

[Regfan]

Actually, I think it's pod person and Krazy. They vote each other early on, wait for an unsuspecting townie to hop on the wagon (Regfan), then immediately unvote and start to attack the townie! Perfect plan!

Krazy, all that proves is that pod person is your buddy. You were all ready to lynch his ass before, now you want to wait? SCUM!

THIS GAME CRACKED OPEN AND HANDED TO YOU ON A SILVER PLATTER BY UMBRAGE THE MAGNIFICENT. BOO-YAH.

You're an idiot, if I die tonight and you lose I will murder you. There's no reason for Krazy to unvote if this was a buss-attempt, the bussing credit would give him enough clearance to cruise through 3 way lylo to a win.

Cut: Abelcain, it's virtually impossible for me to be mafia with Krazy, the game would be over. Attempting to use that as an excuse for not voting Pod is just you waiting to see waht Krazy will do from this position.

[Regfan]

I don't see any possible way I don't die tonight. Umbrage, swear to god if you quick-hammer tommorow without going back to re-read....

[Regfan]

If Umbrage and I both live, I promise to policy lynch him.

[Regfan]

There's nothing that confidential in the QT so sure, here it is:

http://www.quicktopic.com/45/H/nSYh2Be7n3AM

[Regfan]

Krazy - I was worried that there would be some form of mechanic twist or a vote not counted so I didn't want to risk it.